SMM, June 25: Metal markets: As of the noon close, base metals on the domestic market fell across the board, with SHFE copper down 1.82%, SHFE aluminum down 2.75%, SHFE lead down 0.7%, SHFE zinc down 1.64%, SHFE nickel down 0.92%, and SHFE tin down 1.76%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures fell 2.08%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1.29%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.75%, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.29%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.33%. Ferrous metals mostly rose, with only stainless steel down 0.75%. Iron ore rose 0.2%, rebar rose 0.1%, and hot-rolled coil edged up. In the coking coal and coke segment: the most-traded coking coal contract inched up 0.08%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.28%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:38, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.82%, LME aluminum rose 0.24%, LME lead rose 0.6%, LME zinc rose 0.31%, LME tin rose 2.02%, and LME nickel rose 0.77%. In precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 0.48%, and COMEX silver fell 2.02%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold declined 2.81%, hitting an intraday low of 868.34 yuan/g; the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 7.1%, with an intraday low of 13,560 yuan/kg. Additionally, as of the noon close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 4.39%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 3.54%. As of the noon close, the most-traded containerized freight index (Europe) futures fell 2.45% to 3,665.5 points. As of 11:38 on June 25, midday quotes for selected futures: Spot and fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, downstream consumption recovered somewhat after silver continued to decline. Morning quotes in Shanghai were mainly at TD parity to +20 yuan/kg... Macro front Domestic front: [China's power generation capacity exceeds 4 billion kW] On June 25, the National Energy Administration announced that as of the end of May 2026, China's power generation capacity reached 4.01 billion kW, ranking first globally. Non-fossil energy capacity became the absolute mainstay of capacity additions, and the energy mix continued to improve. The share of coal-fired power capacity fell from 61% in 2010 to 32% in May 2026; the share of non-fossil energy capacity rose from 25% in 2010 to 62% in May 2026; and the share of renewable energy capacity rose from 24% in 2010 to 61% in May 2026. (Xinhua) [PBOC reverse repo net injection of 322.5 billion yuan today] The PBOC conducted 370.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 500 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations today. With 300 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing today, this resulted in a net injection of 322.5 billion yuan. ((Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 101.51. All large US banks passed the Fed's annual stress test, paving the way for banks to boost share buybacks and dividends by tens of billions of dollars. The stress test aims to assess how Wall Street lenders would fare under hypothetical financial system shocks. Unlike in previous years, the 2026 test results will not affect capital requirements, as the Fed is continuously revising the test to make it more friendly to banks. This year's test examined how 32 large lenders would withstand a severe global shock amid greater stress in commercial and residential real estate markets and corporate debt markets. The hypothetical scenario included a severe global recession, a 39% drop in commercial real estate prices, and a 30% decline in residential prices. The unemployment rate also surged to a peak of 10%, with a corresponding decline in economic output. The regulators said, "Despite absorbing over $708 billion in loan losses under this year's hypothetical scenario, total capital fell by just 1.6 percentage points, still above the minimum capital requirement." According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 65.8%, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 34.2%. By September, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 33.6%, of a cumulative 25bp hike is 49.7%, and of a cumulative 50bp hike is 16.7%. US Treasury Secretary Bessent praised Fed Chairman Warsh for eliminating forward guidance, and said no one should make dot plot forecasts. On the economy, he expects real wage growth to return to the pace seen before April and expects the economy to accelerate for the rest of the year without fueling inflation. He stressed that the dominance of the US dollar is crucial. He believes that once the situation in Ukraine is over, Russia will want to return to the dollar system, while a new Venezuela is returning to that system. During a period of rate cuts, the dollar can still remain strong, and the US is willing to take the right measures to keep the dollar strong. (Jin10 Data APP) On the data front: Today will see the release of Australia's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's July GfK Consumer Confidence Index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, US May core PCE price index year-on-year, US May personal spending month-on-month, the final reading of US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter, the final reading of US Q1 real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter, the final reading of US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter, US May core PCE price index month-on-month, US May durable goods orders month-on-month, and other data. Additionally, attention should be paid to: Nvidia's annual shareholder meeting; the Bank of Canada's release of monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Federal Reserve's release of annual bank stress test results; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo's attendance at a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); Micron Technology's fiscal 2026 Q3 earnings call; and 300 billion yuan in 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today. Crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices on both exchanges continued to decline, extending losses from the previous three trading days, with WTI falling 1.69% and Brent falling 1.53%. Oil prices pulled back their wartime gains on Thursday as the market bet on improving global crude supply, with tankers that had been stranded in the Persian Gulf for months beginning to sail out of the Strait of Hormuz. According to data from maritime analytics firm Kpler, more than 20 tankers carrying approximately 35 million barrels of crude oil have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since a US-Iran agreement reopened this critical shipping lane. These non-Iranian tankers had been stuck in the Persian Gulf for over three months after Tehran effectively blockaded the waterway early in the conflict. Most of these tankers are expected to arrive at Asian destinations by early August. Citigroup stated that the worst may be over for commodity futures carry trade strategies, which suffered massive losses during the US-Iran war as short positions in near-month contracts were hit hard by soaring prices, while long positions in forward contracts were bought. Citi noted that the current base case is for significant de-escalation, and predicts that as Strait of Hormuz shipping normalizes, Brent crude prices will fall to $60-$65 per barrel over the next 6 to 12 months. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 25: In the metals market: Base metals on the domestic market all fell overnight. SHFE tin dropped 2.64%, SHFE copper fell 2.3%, SHFE zinc lost 1.33%, SHFE aluminum declined 2.13%, and SHFE nickel slid 1.72%. SHFE lead edged down 0.95%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.84%, and the aluminum casting main contract lost 1.69%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance overnight. Iron ore rose 0.47%, rebar and HRC edged lower, and stainless steel fell 0.85%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract gained 0.4%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1%. On the overseas market, LME base metals all fell overnight. LME copper dropped 2.59%. LME aluminum tumbled 4.43%, hitting a more than three-month low of $3,110/mt during the session. LME lead fell 1.59%. LME zinc lost 2.67%. LME tin declined 3.05%. LME nickel dropped 2.52%. In precious metals overnight: COMEX gold fell 3.21%, touching a session low of $3,975.7/oz; COMEX silver plunged 7.39%, hitting a session low of $55.75/oz. SHFE gold lost 2.45%, and SHFE silver tumbled 6.31%. As of 7:12 on June 25, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Ministry of Commerce: Announcement on Further Improving the Handling of Reports Regarding Violations of Export Controls on Strategic Mineral Dual-Use Items] Announcement No. 26 of 2026 of the Ministry of Commerce. To fully leverage social oversight and combat violations of export controls on strategic mineral dual-use items, all organizations and individuals have the right to report suspected violations of relevant laws and regulations in exporting strategic mineral dual-use items, including: exporting strategic mineral dual-use items without authorization; exporting such items beyond the scope, conditions, or validity period specified in the export license; exporting prohibited strategic mineral dual-use items; circumventing licensing requirements by modifying or disassembling items into components or parts to export strategic mineral-related dual-use items; and evading export control regulations on strategic mineral dual-use items by routing through a third country (region), among others. [Ministry of Commerce Releases "Measures for the Security Investigation of Industry Chain and Supply Chain"] To implement the "Provisions of the State Council on the Security of Industry Chain and Supply Chain" (State Council Order No. 834), conduct security investigations on industry chain and supply chain effectively, and safeguard the security of China's industry chain and supply chain, the Ministry of Commerce formulated the "Measures for the Security Investigation of Industry Chain and Supply Chain," which is hereby released and takes effect from the date of publication. [Ministry of Commerce and seven other departments: Strictly crack down on illegal recycling and dismantling of end-of-life motor vehicles, and regulate the business practices of end-of-life motor vehicle recycling enterprises] The Ministry of Commerce, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Ministry of Transport, State Administration for Market Regulation, and other departments formulated the "Special Rectification Action Plan for Illegal Recycling and Dismantling of End-of-Life Motor Vehicles." It is hereby issued. This special rectification action focuses on addressing prominent issues in the end-of-life motor vehicle recycling industry. All regions and relevant departments should adhere to a problem-oriented approach, improve the coordinated supervision mechanism, strictly crack down on illegal recycling and dismantling of end-of-life motor vehicles, and regulate the business practices of end-of-life motor vehicle recycling enterprises. Through this special rectification action, the standardized operation level of end-of-life motor vehicle recycling enterprises will be continuously enhanced, the proportion of end-of-life motor vehicle recycling volume to vehicle deregistration volume will be steadily expanded, illegal recycling and dismantling of end-of-life motor vehicles will be effectively curbed, the level of parts recycling and reuse from end-of-life motor vehicles will be continuously improved, and the high-quality development of the end-of-life motor vehicle recycling and dismantling industry will be promoted. Additionally, local authorities are guided to concurrently address the recycling standards for PV modules and wind turbine blades. [Central Bank: To conduct 500 billion yuan MLF operation on June 25] According to the central bank, on June 25, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation through a fixed-quantity, rate-based tender, and multiple-price winning bids, with a term of one year. [CAICT: Domestic mobile phone shipments reached 27.639 million units in May; 5G phone shipments up 23.8% YoY] Data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) shows that in May 2026, domestic mobile phone shipments reached 27.639 million units, up 16.5% YoY. Among them, 5G phone shipments were 26.224 million units, up 23.8% YoY, accounting for 94.9% of total mobile phone shipments during the same period. As for the US dollar: The US dollar index extended gains from the previous two trading days, rising another 0.2% overnight to close at 101.57. The PCE price index release on Thursday will be the next key period. Forecasters anticipate that the May data will show acceleration on both MoM and YoY basis, providing new reference for the Fed’s policy direction. Goldman Sachs' chief economist Jan Hatzius reiterated that his baseline forecast remains no rate hike, citing that if a lasting peace is achieved in the Middle East, the inflation environment will be milder than the Fed currently expects. (Wall Street Journal) US Treasury Secretary Bessent praised Fed Chairman Warsh for eliminating forward guidance, and he also believed that no one should make dot plot forecasts. On the economic front, he expected real wage growth to return to its pre-April pace, and he anticipated economic growth to accelerate through the remainder of the year without driving up inflation. He stressed that US dollar dominance was crucial. He believed that after the situation in Ukraine ended, Russia would want to return to the dollar system, and the new Venezuela was moving back into that system. During the period when interest rates were being lowered, the dollar could remain strong, and the US would be happy to take the right measures to keep the dollar strong. On the issue of Iran, Bessent stated that the US Treasury would oversee the distribution of funds to Iran, which would initially be disbursed through Qatar, and a significant portion of those funds would be used to purchase US food and medicine supervised by the Treasury, and any funds received by Iran should belong to Iranians. (Gold Ten Data) According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July was 65.8%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points was 34.2%. The probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged through September was 33.6%, the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points was 49.7%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 50 basis points was 16.7%. Macro front: Data to be released today include Australia's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's July GfK Consumer Confidence Index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, US May core PCE price index year-over-year, US May personal spending month-over-month, US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-over-quarter final, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditures quarter-over-quarter final, US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-over-quarter final, US May core PCE price index month-over-month, and US May durable goods orders month-over-month. Furthermore, attention should be paid to: Nvidia's annual general meeting of shareholders; the Bank of Canada's release of monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Fed's release of annual bank stress test results; Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's attendance at a central bank lecture event held by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); Micron Technology's fiscal year 2026 Q3 earnings call; 300 billion yuan in 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today. Crude oil side: Overnight, both oil futures dropped sharply, with WTI falling 4.56% to an intraday low of $69.93/bbl and Brent falling 4.45% to an intraday low of $73.32/bbl. Brent crude has largely erased all the geopolitical risk premium accumulated since the outbreak of the Iran war. News-wise, Trump stated in a social media post on the 24th that Iran had informed the US it would not impose any tolls, insurance premiums, or other charges on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, but he also threatened that negotiations would immediately cease if this information proved false. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, the UAE's oil exports have recovered to nearly 85% of pre-war levels, reflecting a substantial increase in the volume of oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks. The UAE alone sold about 60 million barrels of crude oil from the Persian Gulf in recent weeks. Data shows that vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has hit a new high since the signing of the memorandum of understanding and continues to rise. (Wall Street See)

SMM June 24 – Metals market: As of the midday close, all domestic base metals fell, with SHFE copper down 0.95%, SHFE aluminum down 1.11%, SHFE lead down 0.12%, SHFE zinc down 1.7%, SHFE nickel down 1.94%, and SHFE tin down 4.64% to a session low of 388,220 yuan/mt. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum contract fell 1.01%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.52%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 1.67%, the most-traded silicon metal contract edged down, and the most-traded polysilicon contract rose 0.28%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance, with iron ore up 0.68%, rebar edging down, HRC edging up, and stainless steel down 1.27%. On the coking coal and coke front: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.64%, and the most-traded coke contract was at parity with 1,953.5 yuan/mt. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:38, LME metals were nearly all lower. LME copper rose 0.24%, LME aluminum fell 0.67%, LME lead fell 0.44%, LME zinc and LME tin fell within 0.5%, and LME nickel edged down. On the precious metals front, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 1.86% and COMEX silver fell 1.34%. On the domestic precious metals front: the most-traded SHFE gold contract extended its losing streak from the previous four trading days, falling another 2.37% to a session low of 886.34 yuan/g; the most-traded SHFE silver contract extended its losing streak from the previous three trading days, falling another 5.08%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.6% and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.41%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract rose 0.79% to 3,745 points. As of 11:38 on June 24, some futures midday market data: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,310 yuan/mt, down 975 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average SX-EW copper price was 103,200 yuan/mt, down 970 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, mainly due to increased arrivals... Macro Front Domestic Side: [Three Ministries Implement 2026 Insurance Compensation Policy for First (Set of) Major Technical Equipment] The MIIT General Office, the Ministry of Finance General Office, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration General Office issued a notice on implementing the 2026 insurance compensation policy for the first (set of) major technical equipment. The notice stated that complete equipment is generally supported based on the number of units (sets); core systems, key parts, key supporting components for major technical equipment, and basic components are generally supported based on the number of batches. For complete equipment such as high-end industrial machine tools, specialized electronic equipment, new-type agricultural machinery, and precision instruments and meters, which have relatively low per-unit value, support can be provided on a batch basis; for high-value core systems and key components like aircraft engines and marine engines, support can be provided on a per-unit basis. [Ultra-long special government bonds have helped upgrade over 360,000 elevators] On June 24, it was learned from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development that since the state included the upgrading of old residential elevators into the scope of ultra-long special government bond funding support, various localities have actively relied on policy support to vigorously promote the upgrading of old residential elevators, facilitating residents' convenient travel. To date, a total of over 360,000 old residential elevators have been upgraded. (CCTV News) [PBOC reverse repo net injection of 242.2 billion yuan today] The PBOC today conducted 662.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations at an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous. Today, 420.3 billion yuan of reverse repo matures. US Dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose 0.1% to 101.47. On the data front: on June 24, S&P Global released data showing that the US June composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) flash reading rose to 52.2, higher than the previous 51.5 and market expectations of 52.1, hitting a five-month high and indicating continued expansion in US business activity. By sector, manufacturing stood out. New orders grew at the fastest pace in over four years, driving a marked pickup in factory production. The US June manufacturing PMI flash reading rose to 55.7, the highest since May 2022, exceeding the expected 54.6 and the prior 55.1. Meanwhile, the service sector also maintained expansion, with the June services PMI flash reading climbing to 51.3, a four-month high, above the expected 51.1 and the prior 50.7. At the same time, easing cost pressure expectations due to the de-escalation of Middle East tensions also boosted business confidence. However, the survey also showed that issues such as supply chain delays, rising raw material costs, and slowing employment persist, and the foundation for economic recovery is not solid. (From Wall Street Insight APP) According to CNBC, as the search for the next president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta enters its seventh month, the hiring process is being closely watched. Observers hope to see how the new Fed chief Warsh will reshape the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is responsible for setting interest rate policy. As Warsh began to exert his personal influence within the Fed, the selection process shifted. During former Fed Chairman Powell’s tenure, the Fed had already been scouting candidates for the Atlanta Fed president job title, according to two people familiar with the hiring process. However, to allow Warsh to take the lead on the appointment, the selection process was temporarily suspended. Because the search is still ongoing, both sources requested anonymity. They noted that Michael Faulkender, who previously served as a senior Treasury official under President Trump, was subsequently added to the list of candidates for the Atlanta Fed presidency. It remains unclear whether Faulkender is still a candidate. (Jin10 Data App) According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the Fed holds rates steady in July is 62.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bps hike is 37.4%. The probability that the Fed holds rates steady through September is 29.8%, with a 50.6% chance of a cumulative 25bps hike and a 19.6% chance of a cumulative 50bps hike. In other currencies: Data released on Wednesday showed that Australia’s CPI slowed in May, weighed down by lower fuel costs and reduced holiday travel demand. Still, core inflation came in above expectations, suggesting that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics data, the CPI fell 0.7% MoM in May, while the YoY growth rate slowed to 4%, down from the previous reading of 4.2% and compared with market expectations of a 0.4% MoM decline and 4.3% YoY growth. However, core inflation, which strips out volatile items, rose 0.4% MoM in May—topping expectations of 0.3%—pushing the annual rate to 3.6%. The RBA has already hiked rates three times this year as it seeks to pull core inflation back into its 2%–3% target range. The Bank of Japan signaled in the minutes of last week’s board meeting that there is a need to further raise the benchmark interest rate. At that meeting, the BOJ lifted the policy rate to its highest level since 1995. According to the minutes released on Wednesday, one member stated: “Given that core CPI inflation is close to 2% and financial conditions remain accommodative, the Bank should continue raising the policy rate in response to the current economic, inflation and financial environment.” While the BOJ’s move last week marked its first rate hike since last December and signaled clearly that more increases are ahead, the minutes offered no explicit guidance on the timing of the next hike. Even so, they reinforced market expectations for another rate increase before the end of the year. The day after the meeting concluded, a survey of economists showed that about 90% of respondents expected another rate hike before December, with over one-third projecting October as the next adjustment window. Economists now expect the benchmark rate in this hiking cycle to reach 1.75%, up from the 1.5% forecast in the survey earlier this month. (Jin10 Data App) Data: Today will see the release of Australia's unadjusted May CPI y/y, Germany's June IFO business climate index, Switzerland's June ZEW investor sentiment index, the Q1 US current account, and US new home sales (annualized) for May, among other data. Also on watch: the Bank of Japan publishes a summary of opinions from the board members on the June monetary policy meeting; the 2026 Shanghai Mobile World Congress runs through June 26. Crude Oil: As of 11:38, oil prices on both exchanges fell, with WTI down 1.08% and Brent off 0.87%. Following a temporary peace agreement between the US and Iran, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumed, keeping international crude prices under pressure. (Wall Street News) Iran's ambassador in Geneva stated that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open to commercial vessels, and a significant volume of oil has been transported through the waterway in recent days. (Jin10 Data App) On June 23 local time, US President Trump said the United States is "working toward a fair agreement with Iran" to end the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. He noted that 19 million barrels of oil were transported through the strait just the previous day (June 22). Trump reiterated that "Iran cannot have nuclear weapons" and indicated that work on the matter is progressing well. (CCTV) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Tin Morning Flash: US Fed Hawkish Stance and AI Bubble Concerns Push SHFE Tin to 390,000 Mark]

SMM June 24 News: On the metals market front: Overnight, domestic base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE tin dropped 4.59%, SHFE copper fell 1.13%, SHFE zinc declined 1.59%, SHFE aluminum lost 1.47%, and SHFE nickel slid 2.21%. SHFE lead edged up 0.06%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.17%, while the most-traded cast aluminum contract fell 1.07%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore rose 0.68%, rebar edged up 0.19%, hot-rolled coil gained 0.18%, while stainless steel fell 1.41%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract declined 0.56%, and the most-traded coke contract dropped 0.38%. On the overseas metals market front, LME base metals fell across the board overnight. LME copper dropped 2.18%, LME aluminum fell 2.99%, LME lead declined 1.04%, LME zinc lost 2.79%, LME tin plunged 4.1%, and LME nickel slid 2.71%. Overnight in precious metals: COMEX gold fell 1.75%, and COMEX silver dropped 6.03%. SHFE gold declined 0.82%, and SHFE silver lost 4.36%. As of 7:16 on June 24, overnight closing prices: Macro Front On the domestic front: [Notice from the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments on issuing measures to cultivate and expand consumption in the automotive aftermarket] The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued a notice on measures to cultivate and expand consumption in the automotive aftermarket. The notice mentioned regulating and orderly developing car modification. Establish and improve car modification management systems. Formulate policy documents to promote the development of the car modification market, clarify the implementation of graded and classified management for car modification, define the list of car modification items, and improve management requirements such as vehicle inspection and registration changes. Improve the car modification standard system. Study the establishment of a national automotive standardization technical committee car modification sub-technical committee, sort out the list of standards to be developed and revised, accelerate the formulation of a batch of national standards, and research and develop car modification parts and technical specifications. The notice proposed supporting the development of the RV and camping industry. Improve the RV traffic and usage environment. Support local governments in optimizing RV on-road traffic management policies. Simplify the approval process for RV campsite land use. Enhance the level of supporting services at RV campsites. In combination with regional cultural and tourism resources, encourage the construction of a batch of high-standard, multi-functional RV campsites along scenic byways, suburban areas, and other regions, and improve supporting services such as maintenance and supply, hydropower support, medical rescue, and catering and accommodation. Optimize the setting of RV campsite signage and publish premium RV tour routes. When constructing or renovating public parking lots in cities, if conditions permit, dedicated parking spaces for self-propelled and towable RVs can be set up and managed better to meet RV parking needs. [Ministry of Commerce: As of June 22, the consumer trade-in program has cumulatively driven sales of related goods to 5 trillion yuan] Yang Mu, Director of the Department of Market Operation and Consumer Promotion at the Ministry of Commerce, stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office on June 23 that as of June 22 this year, the consumer trade-in program had cumulatively driven sales of related goods to 5 trillion yuan, benefiting 630 million person-times. Among them, car trade-in sales accounted for 63%, playing a positive role in benefiting people's livelihoods, expanding consumption, optimizing industries, and promoting circulation. (from Wallstreetcn APP) [Shenzhen: Emphasize systematic layout and flexible supply to build a good computing network, and strengthen computing capacity supply] On June 23, the Shenzhen Municipal Party Committee held a special meeting to deeply implement the decisions and plans of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, carry out the work requirements of the provincial party committee and provincial government, seize opportunities, and promote the planning and construction of the city's "Six Networks" with high quality and efficiency. Jin Lei, Secretary of the Municipal Party Committee, presided over the meeting and delivered a speech. Qin Weizhong, Deputy Secretary of the Municipal Party Committee and Mayor, made work arrangements. Lin Jie, Chairperson of the Municipal Committee of the CPPCC, attended. The meeting emphasized focusing on key points and targeted efforts to improve the level and quality of the planning and construction of the "Six Networks". It highlighted the need for intensive, efficient, safe, and reliable construction of a modern water network, with a complete and systematic water resource allocation and supply guarantee network, a solid and resilient "flood-tide" risk protection network, and a happy and beautiful green ecological network. It stressed the need for expansion, quality improvement, intelligence, and flexibility in building a new-type power grid, continuously strengthening channel layout optimization, network construction, and digital and intelligent transformation of the power grid to create a stronger, greener, and more intelligent new-type power grid. It emphasized systematic layout and flexible supply to build a computing network, enhance computing capacity supply, deepen computing interconnectivity, and pay more attention to computing-power coordination. It highlighted high-speed, ubiquitous, integrated, and empowering construction of a new-generation communication network, accelerating the construction of national-level internet backbone direct connection points, 6G technology R&D and commercial deployment, "dual-gigabit" network popularization, and satellite network applications. It stressed collaborative linkage, safety, and resilience in building urban underground pipeline networks, adhering to the principles of being practical, pragmatic, and effective, strengthening planning coordination, accelerating old network renovation, enhancing digital empowerment, and constructing underground utility tunnels according to local conditions. It emphasized internal and external accessibility and efficient circulation to build a logistics network, targeting broader connectivity, stronger facilities, higher value, and newer scenarios to further optimize functional layout and coordinate the construction of a modern logistics network system. (Published by Shenzhen) On the US dollar front: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.37% to 101.37. The greenback touched its highest level since last November on Tuesday, as traders cemented their expectations for Fed rate hikes this year. The Fed's policy outlook contrasts with other global central banks. Traders now anticipate nearly two 25-basis-point rate hikes by early 2027. Jordan Rochester, a strategist at Mizuho International, said: "The dollar has upside room, and it tends to strengthen before Fed rate hikes; the market is currently debating that the rate-hike cycle could start in September." (JINSHI Data APP) According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 62.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 37.4%. For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 29.8%, that of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 50.6%, and that of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase is 19.6%. On June 23, S&P Global released data showing that the US June flash composite PMI rose to 52.2, above the previous 51.5 and the market expectation of 52.1, hitting a five-month high , indicating that US business activity continued to expand. By sector, manufacturing stood out particularly. The growth rate of new orders hit the fastest pace in more than four years, driving a clear pickup in factory production activities. The US June flash manufacturing PMI rose to 55.7, the highest since May 2022, above the expected 54.6 and the prior 55.1 . Meanwhile, the service sector also maintained its expansion momentum, with the June flash services PMI rising to 51.3, a four-month high, above the forecast 51.1 and the previous 50.7 . At the same time, expectations of easing cost pressures due to the relaxation of Middle East tensions also boosted business confidence. However, the survey also indicated that problems such as supply chain delays, rising raw material costs, and slowing employment persist, suggesting that the economic recovery remains on shaky ground. (from Wallstreetcn APP) On other currencies: Bank of Canada Governor Macklem stated that the agreement between the US and Iran to end the conflict and allow crude oil to be transported through the Strait of Hormuz is a welcome development for the global economy. Macklem briefly mentioned this during a speech themed on global imbalances, saying, "Global energy prices have started to decline, though many issues remain to be resolved." Driven by rising gasoline prices, Canada's inflation rate accelerated to its highest level since 2023 in May. Economists believe that an immediate drop in energy prices should lead to softer headline inflation, which, given core CPI appears under control, will provide further reassurance for the Bank of Canada. (JINSHI Data APP) On the macro front: Data to be released today include Australia's May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, Germany's June IFO Business Climate Index, Switzerland's June ZEW Investor Confidence Index, the US Q1 current account, and US May new home sales annualized. Additionally, attention should be paid to the release of the summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan's June monetary policy meeting, and the MWC Shanghai 2026 event running through June 26. On the crude oil front: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI dropping 1.1% and Brent declining 1.02%. The market is closely watching crude oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. On June 23 local time, US President Trump stated that the US is "committed to reaching a fair agreement with Iran" to end the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. He added that just the day before (June 22), 19 million barrels of oil had been transported through the strait. Trump reiterated that "Iran cannot have nuclear weapons" and that current work is progressing smoothly. (CCTV) On the data front: For the week ending June 19, US API crude oil inventory fell by 765,000 barrels, compared with expectations for a decline of 4.995 million barrels and the prior week's drop of 8.33 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.238 million barrels, against expectations for a 350,000-barrel decline and the prior week's increase of 2.479 million barrels. (JINSHI Data APP) Furthermore, Russia's gasoline shortage is worsening after Ukraine's continued drone attacks on refineries, with at least two-thirds of the country's regions having implemented fuel rationing or experiencing supply disruptions. From areas bordering Ukraine to the Amur Oblast in the Far East, local governors are forced to restrict fuel sales at gas stations almost daily and attempt to curb panic buying. The extent of supply disruptions varies by region, but the situation is overall deteriorating, and could worsen if drone attacks increase further. (JINSHI Data APP)

SMM June 23 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals all fell, SHFE copper fell 0.71%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.25%. SHFE lead fell 0.12%. SHFE zinc fell 0.14%. SHFE tin fell 3.26%. SHFE nickel fell 0.72%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 1.17%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 2.43%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 0.79%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.41%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 0.56%. Ferrous metals all fell, iron ore fell 0.94%, rebar fell 0.51%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.57%, stainless steel fell 1.42%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.93%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 4.53%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals all moved lower. LME copper fell 0.89%, LME aluminum fell 1.56%, LME lead fell 0.84%. LME zinc, LME tin, and LME nickel all fell nearly 1%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 1.07%, COMEX silver fell 3.78%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.36%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 4.91%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 2.85%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 2.36%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping freight futures contract fell 2.23% to 3,689 points. As of 11:43 on June 23, some futures market midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Zinc: Today, #0 zinc mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at 24,585-24,770 yuan/mt, Shuangyan mainstream transactions were at 24,685-24,860 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream transactions were at 24,515-24,700 yuan/mt. Morning session market quotes against SMM average prices were at a premium of 10-20 yuan/mt, with no quotes against the contract for now... Macro front China: [Notice from the Ministry of Commerce and Nine Other Departments on Cultivating and Expanding Consumption in the Automotive Aftermarket] The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued a notice on implementing measures to cultivate and expand consumption in the automotive aftermarket, stating that the development of automotive modification should be standardized and orderly. Establish and improve automotive modification management systems. Formulate policy documents to promote the development of the automobile modification market, clarify graded and categorized management of automobile modification, determine a list of automobile modification items, and improve management requirements for vehicle inspection and change registration. Improve the standard system for automobile modification. Study the establishment of an automotive modification sub-technical committee under the National Automotive Standardization Technical Committee, sort out a list of standards to be proposed or revised, accelerate the formulation of a batch of national standards, and research and develop automotive modification parts and modification technical specifications. The notice proposes supporting the development of the RV and camping industry. Improving the environment for RV travel and use. Support local governments in optimizing management policies for RV road travel. Simplify the land approval process for RV campsites. Enhance the supporting service level of RV campsites. Leveraging regional cultural and tourism resources, encourage the construction of a number of high-standard, multi-functional RV campsites in areas along scenic routes and in suburban areas, and improve supporting services such as maintenance and replenishment, water and electricity supply, medical rescue, and dining and accommodation. Optimize the setup of RV campsite signage, and release premium RV travel routes. When constructing or renovating public parking lots in cities, where conditions permit, dedicated parking spaces for motorhomes and towable caravans may be set up and management strengthened to better meet the parking demand for RVs. [Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments: Announce 40 pilot cities for automotive distribution and consumption reform] On June 23, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued a notice, announcing 40 pilot cities for automotive distribution and consumption reform and their key reform and innovation directions. For example, Tianjin focuses on automobile modification, classic cars, and auto racing, Shenyang in Liaoning focuses on used car circulation, Yangzhou in Jiangsu focuses on RV camping, Weinan in Shaanxi focuses on retired vehicle recycling, and so on. The notice requires each pilot city to, based on local industrial characteristics, market features, resource endowments, location conditions, functional positioning, and other actual situations, address bottleneck issues such as unreasonable restrictions on automotive distribution and consumption, improve reform and innovation measures, cultivate new scenarios, new formats, and new models of automotive consumption, and drive the integrated development of commerce, tourism, culture, sports, and healthcare. At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments synchronously issued a notice on several measures to cultivate and strengthen the automotive aftermarket consumption. (Xinhua News Agency) [Draft Financial Law submitted to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress for first review] On June 23, 2026, the Financial Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft) was submitted to the 23rd meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress for first review. The Financial Law is a fundamental, comprehensive, and overarching law that governs the financial sector in China. It is positioned as the "1" in the financial legal system, playing a guiding, overarching, and standardizing role. Laws in areas such as banking, insurance, and securities constitute the "N," and other financial laws and regulations form the "X." These must align with the basic provisions established by the "1," with equal emphasis on formulation and revision, to specifically regulate financial activities in each field. Together, "1+N+X" build a scientific, complete, and unified financial legal system. The draft Financial Law adheres to the main theme of strengthening regulation, preventing risks, and promoting high-quality development, focusing on coordinating development and security, and striving to solve legal difficulties that hinder the high-quality development of finance. (Xinhua News Agency) [PBOC's reverse repo operation today net injects 75 billion yuan] PBOC today conducted a 524.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation, at an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from previous. Today, 449.5 billion yuan in reverse repos matured. On the US dollar side: As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose 0.03%, at 101.03. According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 36.3%. Through September, the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged is 26.1%, with a 52.2% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 21.4% chance of a 50-basis-point hike. (Jinshi Data APP) Citadel Securities said that Fed Chairman Warsh's commitment to reducing inflation has enhanced the Fed's credibility, thereby supporting long-term US Treasury yields and lowering term premiums. Following last week's Fed meeting, trading in the US Treasury market, worth $31 trillion, displayed a characteristic: long-term yields were more stable compared to two-year yields, which are more sensitive to policy. The firm's head of fixed income sales, Nohshad Shah, stated, "A highly credible Fed should benefit long-end rate performance." (Jinshi Data APP) Bank of America currently expects the Fed to raise interest rates three times this year, the latest sign that Wall Street is bracing for more aggressive Fed rate hikes. The bank's economists had previously expected the Fed to keep rates unchanged this year. The reason for the revision is strong economic data and a hawkish shift in the Fed's communication, signaling a more proactive approach to tackling inflation. Bank of America's forecast of three rate hikes remains in the minority: currently, only 19% of market investors expect three hikes, although this proportion has climbed from 3% a week ago. Investors see two rate hikes this year as the most likely outcome. In other currencies: After the yen weakened further and reports emerged of an online meeting between Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki and US Treasury Secretary Bessent, foreign exchange traders are on high alert for possible intervention. In early trading on Tuesday, the yen was at about 161.57 per dollar, near its lowest level in 40 years. NHK and Kyodo News reported that Katayama and Bessent may have discussed exchange rate issues. The market is concerned that after the Bank of Japan's rate hike at last week's policy meeting, it still has not raised borrowing costs quickly enough to curb inflation, keeping the yen under continuous pressure. Moreover, oil prices boosted by the US-Iran war also weighed additionally on the yen. Yamamoto Takeru, a trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank in New York, said: "Japanese authorities may hope to send a signal through the US-Japan talks that they are coordinating actions with the US, while hinting that the threshold for implementing intervention is not high. Although market concerns about intervention have intensified, the fundamental factors for a weaker yen have not changed, and USD/JPY could test the 162 level this week." (Jin10 Data APP) On the data front: data to be released today include France's preliminary June manufacturing PMI, Germany's preliminary June manufacturing PMI, the Eurozone's preliminary June manufacturing PMI, the UK's preliminary June manufacturing PMI, the UK's preliminary June services PMI, the UK's June CBI industrial order balance, US ADP employment change for the week ended June 6, the US preliminary June S&P Global manufacturing PMI, the US preliminary June S&P Global services PMI, and the US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, among others. Also worth noting: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem delivers a speech; the 17th Summer Davos Forum takes place in Dalian from June 23 to 25; MSCI releases its annual market classification review results, with South Korea expected to be added to the watch list for developed markets. Crude oil: As of 11:43, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic edged lower, with WTI down 0.32% and Brent down 0.43%. As the market weighed early progress in peace talks on the Iran war, which included US permission to sell some Iranian crude, oil prices stabilized. The US 60-day license allows Iran to sell some oil and petroleum products. Babin Rebecca, managing director and senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management, said, "The road to negotiations remains long, but the market may anticipate an oversupply before crude oil oversupply actually arrives, just as it had anticipated supply deficits before a genuine crude oil supply deficit materialized. Oil prices often overshoot." (Jin10 Data APP) Danske Bank forecasts that for the remainder of 2026, Brent crude will average $80 per barrel, and rise to $85 per barrel next year. The bank also said that even if a US-Iran deal is reached, oil prices will not return to the pre-war level of $60-$70 per barrel. The institution said a US-Iran deal would reopen oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, but warned it would take months for Iran's oil production and exports to return to normal. The bank pointed out that the US's continued release of strategic petroleum reserves could affect the near-term supply landscape, and said the US may choose to maintain this policy for political reasons ahead of the November midterm elections. Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

In May 2026, China's copper cathode import and export market continued and deepened the pattern of "rising imports, falling exports". Driven by phased changes in domestic demand and the import arbitrage window, copper cathode imports kept climbing steadily, while exports contracted notably following the high base earlier.

SMM June 23: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE zinc rose 0.53%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.27%, SHFE nickel rose 0.39%. SHFE tin fell 1.96%, SHFE copper edged down, SHFE lead rose 0.34%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 2.63%, and the cast aluminum main contract rose 0.3%. Overnight, ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 0.34%, rebar fell 0.16%. HRC fell 0.21%, stainless steel fell 1.46%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.63%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.81%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.62%. LME aluminum fell 1.1%, LME lead rose 0.77%. LME zinc rose 1.32%. LME tin fell 0.34%. LME nickel rose 1%. Overnight, in precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.85%, and COMEX silver fell 1.71%. Overnight, SHFE gold fell 0.18%, and SHFE silver fell 1.23%. As of 7:16 on June 23, the overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [National Energy Group: Full-Throttle Efforts to Prepare for Peak Summer, Stabilizing Production and Increasing Output to Cement Coal Supply as Ballast] National Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. announced in a statement that, according to forecasts by the National Climate Center, this summer's average temperature across the country will be higher than usual, with more high-temperature days than normal. National Energy Group fully leverages its integrated coal-power-chemical-transport operation advantages, makes all-out efforts across all links, and firmly shoulders the heavy responsibility of ensuring supply during the peak summer. Coal supply is the baseline support for stable electricity generation. The coal segment of National Energy Group is rapidly stabilizing and increasing production, coordinating internal and external resources, and ensuring equipment operation and maintenance, aiming for high-output and stable-supply goals to solidify the foundation of energy supply and fully support regional peak power load demand. [National Energy Group's Installed Power Generation Capacity Exceeds 400 Million kW, Accounting for About 1/10 of National Total] National Energy Group announced that its installed power generation capacity has exceeded 400 million kW, accounting for about one-tenth of the national total, playing a "pillar" role in ensuring stable national power supply and safeguarding energy security. After exceeding 300 million kW in May 2023, its installed capacity entered the 400 million kW level in June 2026, setting a new record among global energy companies for installed generation capacity. Among this, thermal power and wind power installed capacity both remain the world's largest. As of end-May 2026, National Energy Group has put into operation 65 ultra-supercritical coal-fired power units of gigawatt-class, accounting for nearly 30% of all such units in China, with its high-efficiency and clean coal power scale firmly leading the industry; at the same time, the group actively explores new development models such as integrated wind-solar-storage-hydrogen and coordinated generation-grid-load-storage, and has built new-type energy storage with a total capacity of 8.01 million kW / 19.21 million kWh, continuously enhancing its renewable energy consumption and regulation capabilities. (Xinhua) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 101. Fed's Goolsbee said: Fed Chairman Walsh's approach is to reduce speculation on interest rates and reduce forward guidance; I quite agree with this approach. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 36.3%. For the September meeting, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 26.1%, a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 52.2%, and a cumulative 50bp rate hike is 21.4%. (Jinshi Data APP) Bank of America currently expects the Fed to raise interest rates three times this year, the latest sign that Wall Street is bracing for more aggressive Fed tightening. The bank's economists previously expected the Fed to hold rates steady this year. The reason for the revised forecast is strong economic data and a hawkish shift in Fed communication, suggesting the Fed will take a more proactive approach to combating inflation. Bank of America's forecast of three rate hikes remains a minority view: only 19% of market investors currently expect three hikes, though that proportion has climbed from 3% a week ago. Investors see two rate hikes this year as the most likely outcome. (Jinshi Data APP) Other currencies: [Starmer Says UK Labour Party New Leader Election to Start on July 9] UK Prime Minister Starmer said on the 22nd, when announcing his resignation, that the election for the new leader of the UK Labour Party will begin on July 9. Starmer said he has asked the Labour Party's National Executive Committee to set a timetable for the leadership election, with the nomination process to start on July 9 and be completed before the parliamentary summer recess. This means the new Labour leader will be in place before Parliament returns in September. (Xinhua) Macro front: Today, data to be released include the preliminary June manufacturing PMIs for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK; the preliminary UK June services PMI; the UK June CBI industrial orders balance; the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 6; the preliminary US June S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs; and the US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, among others. Additionally, watch for: a speech by Bank of Canada Governor Macklem; the 17th Summer Davos Forum held in Dalian from June 23 to 25; and MSCI's release of its annual market classification review results, with South Korea expected to be placed on the watch list for developed market status. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI down 2.33% and Brent down 2.8%. Oil prices opened higher on Monday but then turned lower. Wallstreetcn mentioned that Qatar and Pakistan issued a joint statement on Monday, announcing that the US and Iran have agreed on a mechanism to end military operations in Lebanon and have established a communication channel to ensure the safety of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The US Treasury Department then announced that it would allow Iran to sell oil to international markets within 60 days, as one of the conditions of the memorandum of understanding signed by both sides last week. US Vice President Vance described the first round of negotiations as "very, very smooth." (Wallstreetcn) Furthermore, Iraq's deputy oil minister for upstream affairs said in a statement on Sunday that Iraq plans to gradually restore crude oil production to between 4.2 million and 4.3 million barrels per day. ANZ Bank expects that in the first four weeks, production will return to about 2 million to 3 million barrels per day. Resumption of production still faces challenges; in Q3 2026, 2 million to 3.5 million barrels per day may be restored, provided the market is stable, while another 1 million to 2 million barrels per day of supply could be permanently or semi-permanently lost. ANZ added: "The initial production recovery will mainly come from logistics (transportation), not production. Later stages will depend on upstream production and refinery restarts. A full resumption of production is unlikely this year." (Jinshi Data APP)

SMM June 22 news: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell, with only SHFE aluminum rising, up 0.4%. SHFE tin led the decline with a drop of 1.31%, SHFE nickel fell 0.84%, SHFE lead and SHFE zinc both fell 0.7%, and SHFE copper edged down 0.34%. The most-traded alumina contract fell 0.52%, while the most-traded casting aluminum contract rose 0.47%. In addition, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 6.08%, the most-traded polysilicon contract fell 0.25%, and the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.58%. The most-traded European route container shipping index futures rose 0.11%. In the ferrous metals segment, all except stainless steel rose. Stainless steel rose 0.36%, while hot-rolled coil and iron ore both fell around 0.6%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal fell 2.24% and coke fell 1.78%. On the overseas market front, as of 11:38, base metals on the LME all rose, with LME nickel leading the gains at 1.23%, LME tin up 0.88%, LME copper up 0.53%, and the other metals showing relatively small fluctuations. In precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 1.15%, COMEX silver fell 0.73%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 3.25% and SHFE silver fell 5.65%. In addition, the most-traded platinum contract fell 4.77% and the most-traded palladium contract fell 3.51%. As of 11:38 on June 22, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Zinc: Today, mainstream transaction prices for #0 zinc were concentrated in the range of 24,495-24,790 yuan/mt, Shuangyan brand mainstream transaction prices were at 24,595-24,890 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream transaction prices were at 24,425-24,720 yuan/mt. In the morning session, quotations against the SMM average price were at premiums of 10-30 yuan/mt, while no quotes were offered against the futures market. In the second trading session, quotations for ordinary domestic brands against the 2607 contract were at discounts of 40-20 yuan/mt..... Macro front Domestic aspect: [Unchanged for the 13th consecutive month! China's latest LPR quotes released: 3.5% for the over-five-year term and 3% for the one-year term.] China’s June Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was released on June 22, with both the one-year and over-five-year LPRs unchanged. The People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the LPRs on June 22, 2026 were: the one-year LPR at 3.0%, and the over-five-year LPR at 3.5%. These LPRs will remain valid until the next LPR release. [During the three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday, cross-regional person trips nationwide are expected to exceed 650 million.] According to the Ministry of Transport, during the three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday (June 19-21, 2026), the total cross-regional person trips nationwide were expected to be 652.78 million, with a daily average of 217.593 million, flat YoY. (（CCTV News） On the dollar front: As of 11:38 AM, the US dollar index rose 0.11% to 100.88, with markets continuing to monitor developments following the US-Iran talks. US federal funds rate futures extended their decline, indicating a 76% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. On June 19, Citadel Securities released a research note stating that under new Fed Chair Warsh, the Fed has shifted from inertial decision-making to proactive, adaptive policymaking. Citadel Securities warned that the market should not interpret this signal with inertial thinking. Its core assessment: the next move is a rate hike, and that hike is likely imminent. At the same time, the note stressed that the Fed will no longer continue its previous market-coddling approach of "pre-communicating policy paths". This shift holds significant implications for the interest rate market, the US dollar, and the stock market. Citadel Securities set its baseline scenario as three 25-basis-point rate hikes over the next two years, in September 2026, December 2026, and March 2027, and views the July meeting as a "live meeting", meaning action could be taken at any time. The Fed projects that core PCE inflation will average about 90 basis points above the 2% target over 2026-2027. Based on the inflation gap and classic monetary policy rules, Citadel Securities calculates that the policy rate should exceed the neutral rate by 1.5 times the inflation gap, implying an additional 135 basis points of tightening. Assuming a neutral rate of 3%, the target policy rate should fall in the 4.25%–4.50% range, corresponding to exactly three rate hikes. (Wall Street Insights) According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability that the Fed holds rates steady in July is 61.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 38.5%. For September, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 24.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 52.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 22.9%. (Jin10 Data) On the data front: Today will see the release of Canada's May CPI month-over-month rate, the Eurozone's preliminary June consumer confidence index, and other data. Furthermore, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on policies and measures to stabilize, improve, and optimize the utilization of foreign investment. ECB President Lagarde speaks at the European Parliament, and Fed Governor Waller delivers welcome remarks at a conference on the international role of the US dollar. Crude Oil: As of 11:38, both oil benchmarks fell together, with US crude down 0.11% and Brent crude down 1.24%. Crude oil prices experienced sharp rises and falls today. Earlier, Trump issued threats again during the negotiations, driving oil prices sharply higher. Subsequently, progress in the US-Iran peace negotiations dragged oil prices down. Qatar and Pakistan issued a joint statement on social media platform X, saying that the first round of high-level US-Iran talks concluded in Burgenstock, Switzerland. The parties agreed to establish a high-level committee. Chief negotiators will report regularly to the high-level committee and lead working groups responsible for nuclear issues, sanctions, and monitoring and dispute resolution. The high-level committee agreed on a roadmap aiming to reach a final agreement within 60 days. To avoid accidents and miscommunication and ensure the safe passage of merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz, communication channels have been established. It was also agreed to set up a de-escalation group to ensure the implementation of the commitment to cease military operations within Lebanese territory. For the rest of the week, technical talks will continue in Burgenstock, discussing all related issues. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Ali Nizar, head of Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO): Currently, two vessels are loading crude oil at the country’s southern terminal, but more vessels need to enter the Strait of Hormuz for production to continue rising. (Iraq 24 TV) (From Wallstreetcn APP) Iran is shipping large volumes of oil that were previously unable to be exported due to US sanctions, potentially giving it a boost after signing a temporary peace deal with Washington last Wednesday. Shipping data showed that a total of 11 tankers were spotted leaving Iran’s Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman last week, carrying a combined 20 million barrels of crude oil. (Bloomberg) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM June 22: Metals markets: On Friday night, the domestic base metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at the performance of domestic base metals on June 18, we see: Domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE zinc up 0.39%, SHFE aluminum up 0.38%, and SHFE nickel edging up. SHFE tin fell 2.03%, SHFE copper fell 0.48%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. On Friday night, the ferrous metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at ferrous metals on June 18: Stainless steel rose 0.07%, iron ore fell 1.13%, rebar fell 0.95%. Hot-rolled coil fell 0.77%. The most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 5.78%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 3%. On Friday night in the overseas metals market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.5%. LME aluminum rose 0.12%, LME lead fell 1.32%. LME zinc fell 2.05%. LME tin rose 0.19%. LME nickel fell 1.41%. On Friday night in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.72%, posting a third consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 1.55%; COMEX silver fell 2.12%, marking its sixth consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 4.51%. On Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract was closed; SHFE gold posted a weekly gain, up 4.11% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract was closed; SHFE silver posted a weekly gain, up 5.25% for the week. As it no longer expects the US Fed to cut interest rates in 2026, Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven wrote in a note: "We revised down our December gold price target to $4,900/oz (previous target $5,400), implying gold is still expected to rise in H2, though by less than previously expected. Our view on gold remains structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risks and medium-term upside risks." The analysts said the downgrade was driven by Goldman Sachs economists pushing back the first US rate cut to June and December next year, from prior expectations of December 2026 and March 2027, and also by a lower forecast for gold ETF inflows. Additionally, they added that concerns over central bank independence may be limited given the "unexpectedly hawkish" first Fed meeting under Chair Warsh. (Jinshi) As of 7:47 a.m. June 20, closing prices from Friday night: Macro front China side: [NFRA: Promote the construction of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry] The National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) issued guidance on the development and application of safe AI in the banking and insurance sectors. It proposes to promote the construction of an AI application ecosystem in the financial sector. Advance the development of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry and promote the sharing and reuse of AI application outcomes across the sector. Encourage large financial institutions to play an exemplary role and export AI technologies and management experience to small and medium-sized financial institutions. Support small and medium-sized financial institutions in strengthening collaboration to jointly drive the implementation of application scenarios. Encourage closer synergy with the AI industry, using financial applications to foster industrial innovation and development, and leveraging industrial achievements to improve the quality and efficiency of financial applications. [Box office on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday surpasses 100 million yuan, number of new releases hits a near-decade high for the same period] According to data from online platforms, as of now, the box office (including pre-sales) on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday has exceeded 100 million yuan. The film offerings during the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival are diverse and rich in genre. Over the short three-day holiday, nearly 20 films were released in concentrated fashion, setting a new high for the same period in nearly a decade. The film genres cover sci-fi, youth, animation, and more, addressing the viewing needs of audiences across almost all age groups. (CCTV News) [Guangdong: Accelerate the construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and make forward-looking plans for 6G technology and satellite internet] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that the deployment of 5G-A networks and pilot projects for 10G optical networks will be advanced in an orderly manner. 50G-PON ports will be deployed on a large scale in key scenarios such as factories and industrial parks. The upgrading and renovation of aging communication facilities will be further promoted, with FTTR whole-home optical network coverage to be achieved simultaneously in both new and older residential communities. Mobile network coverage along major transportation routes and hubs will be improved, and initiatives to increase broadband speeds and benefit the public will be implemented, driving an overall leap in broadband user download rates. The construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be accelerated, the spatial layout of data centers optimized, edge computing vigorously developed, and a “cloud-edge-device” collaborative computing power service system created. Forward-looking plans will be made for 6G technology and satellite internet, a Guangdong 6G Industry Innovation and Development Alliance will be established, and ministerial-provincial 6G collaborative pilot projects will be promoted, with a focus on creating application benchmarks for distinctive scenarios such as embodied AI, intelligent connected vehicles, the low-altitude economy, and the marine economy. [Guangdong: Support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in enriching its futures product system and improving the full futures industry chain] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that efforts will be made to cultivate and strengthen high-quality investment banks and investment institutions, encourage leading securities firms and fund management companies to enhance their service capabilities, compliance management capabilities, and market leadership, attract well-known domestic and international asset management institutions to establish corporate headquarters or regional headquarters in Guangdong, and encourage the development of the investment advisory business. Leverage the comprehensive service functions of the capital market, guide and support cities in improving the reserve pools of IPO-ready enterprises and M&A and restructuring projects, collaborate with exchanges, brokerages and other institutions to thoroughly deliver full-cycle counseling services for pre-IPO enterprises, optimize approval processes for land use rights, property, stock transfers involved in M&A and restructuring of publicly listed firms, and encourage enterprises to expand the issuance scale of sci-tech bonds, green bonds, and asset securitization products. (From Wallstreetcn APP) [Weifang: Expand the implementation of 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities] The Weifang Municipal Bureau of Commerce issued an announcement on expanding the implementation of Weifang's 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities. According to the province-wide unified categories and standards, subsidies will be provided to individual consumers purchasing range hoods, household gas stoves (including integrated stoves), water purifiers, dishwashers, hearing aids, robot vacuums (including floor scrubbers), walking-assist exoskeleton robots, smart toilets, and other products. Individual consumers purchasing the above subsidized category products within Weifang will receive a subsidy of 15% of the final selling price after deducting discounts at all stages. Each person is limited to one subsidized item per category, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item, and the delivery place of the subsidized products must be within the administrative area of Weifang. (Published by Weifang) [Shanghai International Energy Exchange Issues Notice on Launch of Market Orders and Order Quantities for Related Trading Instructions] According to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, market orders will be launched starting July 6, 2026 (i.e., the continuous trading session on the evening of July 3, 2026). Market orders are applicable to all listed futures and options products. For limit orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots for futures products and 100 lots for options products. For market orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 60 lots for futures products and 30 lots for options products. For settlement price trading orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots. Dollar aspects: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 100.76, hitting a high of 101.13 and a low of 100.69 during the session. On the weekly chart: the US dollar index rose for the week, up 0.97% for the week. Market pricing showed that bets on Fed rate hikes increased, with a 25-basis-point rate hike in September fully priced in. Data showed that foreign exchange traders, including hedge funds, were buying large amounts of options, betting that the dollar would strengthen further after the Fed sends a hawkish signal this week and reinforces US rate hike expectations. According to traders, leveraged funds started buying dollar call options on Wednesday, which would increase in value if the dollar appreciates. That demand extended into Thursday as investors digested the new Fed Chairman Warsh's anti-inflation remarks. Bank of America’s head of Americas FX options, Tobias Jungmann, said: “We’re seeing massive dollar call buying, concentrated mainly in G-10 currencies. Given how low implied volatility is currently, building long dollar positions via options looks very attractive.” James Swindell, senior FX options trader at Barclays in London, said: “We’re seeing broad-based, notable demand for dollar calls, especially in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.” (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 60.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike stands at 39.6%. By the September meeting, the probability of unchanged rates is 31.2%, with a 49.6% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 19.1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) On other currencies: ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Thursday that eurozone inflation will remain elevated despite the recent pullback in energy prices. The ECB raised rates last week for the first time in nearly three years, responding to the surge in energy prices since the Middle East conflict erupted in late February. However, oil and natural gas prices subsequently tumbled after Iran and the US announced a peace deal. Lane said the ECB has no doubts about the correctness of the rate-hike decision and still expects inflation to stay above the 2% target for a prolonged period. “We think food prices will rise, and prices of goods and services will rise too. Even in a milder scenario where oil prices pull back, the rate hike was justified,” he said. Separately, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch said: If we see rising services inflation, we could consider another 25bp rate hike as insurance. If the data are ambiguous, I see no need to rush into action. (Jin10 Data) [Bank of England keeps rates on hold in a 7-2 vote, says it will watch Middle East situation closely] The BoE kept the interest rate at 3.75%, calling the recent drop in oil prices “encouraging,” though two policymakers voted for an immediate 25bp hike, worried about persistent inflation. External member Megan Greene joined Chief Economist Huw Pill—April’s sole dissenter—in voting to lift rates to 4% immediately, arguing that the price outlook remains uncertain despite the recent US-Iran ceasefire deal. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of China’s one-year loan prime rate as of June 22, Canada’s May CPI month-on-month rate, the eurozone’s June flash consumer confidence index, France’s June flash manufacturing PMI, Germany’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the eurozone’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash services PMI, the UK’s June CBI industrial orders balance, the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 6, the US June S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI, the US June S&P Global flash services PMI, the US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Australia’s May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, Germany’s June IFO business climate index, Switzerland’s June ZEW investor sentiment index, the US Q1 current account, US May new home sales annualized, Australia’s May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s July GfK consumer confidence index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, the US May core PCE price index year-on-year rate, the US May personal spending month-on-month rate, the final Q1 US real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the preliminary Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the US May core PCE price index month-on-month rate, the US May durable goods orders month-on-month rate, the US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment final index, and the US June one-year inflation expectations final rate. Additionally, this week, attention should also be paid to: European Central Bank President Lagarde Christine speaks at the EU Parliament; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem Tiff delivers remarks; the 17th Summer Davos Forum takes place in Dalian from June 23 to 25; the Bank of Japan releases the summary of opinions from its June monetary policy meeting; Nvidia holds its annual general meeting of shareholders; the Bank of Canada publishes its monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Fed releases the results of its annual bank stress test; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo attends a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); 300 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos mature today; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams John speaks; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee Austan speaks; 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari Neel speaks. Crude Oil: Both crude oil futures rose in overnight trading last Friday: WTI rose 0.91%, Brent rose 0.47%. Weekly: WTI futures fell for two consecutive weeks, down 9.83% for the week; Brent fell for two straight weeks, down 8.53%. International crude oil futures opened lower on Friday, then struggled to rebound and turned lower several times during the session, hitting a low for the day after reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. As news emerged that both sides continued to attack each other after the ceasefire, prices turned higher again in late European trading. Brent struggled around the $80 level throughout the day. (Wall Street View) Iran's Foreign Ministry stated: Negotiations on a permanent deal with the US will only begin after the war in Lebanon ends permanently, the US fully lifts blockades, the US grants waivers for Iranian oil, and Iran's frozen assets are released. (Jin10 Data APP) Iran is shipping out a large volume of oil that was previously unable to be exported due to the US blockade, which could be welcome news for Tehran after it signed a temporary peace agreement with Washington on Wednesday. Shipping data compiled by Bloomberg showed that 11 tankers sailed from Iran's Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman this week, carrying a total of 20 million barrels of crude oil. Previously, the US military had blocked these tankers from entering the Indian Ocean, a move aimed at limiting Tehran's access to petrodollars. (Jin10 Data APP) In addition, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data showed that for the week ended June 16, speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 94,763 contracts to 114,128 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, due to the contract rollover, the floor trading of NYMEX New York crude oil July futures will close at 2:30 on June 23, and electronic trading will close at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risks. Moreover, the expiration of U.S. oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX date, so please stay alert.