A powerful winter storm has disrupted operations at several copper mines and ports in central Chile, prompting major miners including Codelco, Antofagasta and Anglo American to activate safety protocols in response to heavy rain, snowfall and strong winds.Codelco suspended surface activities at its Andina mine and halted ore shipments from the El Teniente open pit due to snowfall. Anglo American said it is closely monitoring weather conditions at Los Bronces and adjusting operations based on ongoing risk assessments, while Antofagasta has scaled back non-essential activities at its flagship Los Pelambres mine. Vessel movements at several ports in central Chile have also been restricted. Major copper operations in northern Chile remain unaffected. BHP confirmed that all of its Chilean mines continue to operate normally. The storm is forecast to persist through the weekend, with rainfall, strong winds and Andean snowfall expected to ease after Sunday. Market participants continue to monitor the potential impact on global copper concentrate supply, particularly as Chile's copper production has already been constrained in recent years by declining ore grades and operational challenges. The storm has also resulted in three fatalities and caused localized power and water outages, while authorities are expected to release an assessment of damage to the agricultural sector.

Codelco Chairman Bernardo Fontaine said on Wednesday that copper production is expected to remain at current levels in the coming years. He was asked earlier whether the company is on track to achieve its plan of producing 1.7 million mt per year by 2030. The company is striving to recover from the output slump in 2022 and 2023, when production fell to its lowest point in two decades. Data show that in 2025, the company's copper production from its captive mines was 1.33 million mt.

Chile has convened emergency talks with mining companies including Codelco, Antofagasta and Teck to assess the potential impact of a powerful winter storm on key copper-producing regions. Mining regulator Sernageomin has activated its crisis committee to monitor landslide, mudslide and transport disruption risks. Prolonged heavy rainfall could affect mine operations, roads, ports and copper concentrate shipments, although the actual impact will depend on whether the storm extends farther north into the country's main mining districts.

Codelco's newly appointed chairman, Bernardo Fontaine, said the Chilean state-owned copper producer will prioritize profitability over production growth as it works to improve operational performance. The company is conducting an external review of its strategy to identify efficiency gains and new opportunities. Facing approximately US$25 billion in debt and seven consecutive years of production below expectations, Codelco is seeking to restore investor confidence. Meanwhile, Jorge Gomez will officially assume the role of executive president this week to lead the company's turnaround efforts.

Amerigo Resources declared a C$0.18 per share performance dividend, its largest to date. The company produces copper concentrate and molybdenum concentrate by processing fresh and historic tailings from Codelco’s El Teniente mine through Minera Valle Central in Chile. The update highlights the commercial value of copper tailings reprocessing under strong copper prices.

The most significant change in the imported copper concentrate market in the first half of 2026 emerged during the mid-year term-contract negotiations. According to SMM, Antofagasta, a leading Chilean mining company, and several major Chinese smelters finalized the pricing mechanism for their mid-year copper concentrate term contracts on July 1. Rather than continuing with the traditional fixed-TC approach, the parties adopted an index-linked pricing mechanism.Chinese smelters had already agreed with Antofagasta on historically low term-contract treatment and refining charges of US$0 per dry metric tonne and US¢0 per pound in 2025. The further introduction of index-based pricing in the 2026 mid-year negotiations indicates that the pricing framework for imported copper concentrate term contracts is undergoing a structural transformation, against a backdrop of persistently and deeply negative spot TCs and steadily strengthening pricing power on the mine side. At a more fundamental level, the change in term-contract pricing reflects the persistent mismatch between mine-supply growth and the expansion of smelting demand. SMM estimates that global sulfide copper concentrate supply will increase by approximately 250,000 tonnes of contained copper in 2026 compared with 2025, representing growth of around 1.3%. By contrast, newly commissioned and expanded primary smelting capacity in China is expected to generate approximately 800,000 tonnes of additional concentrate demand on a contained-copper basis.The increase in mine supply is therefore significantly smaller than the expansion in smelter demand. Meanwhile, factors including the slower-than-expected restart of Grasberg, the continued absence of a full restart at Cobre Panamá, declining ore grades at mature Chilean mines, and the lingering effects of seismic activity at Kamoa-Kakula kept the imported copper concentrate spot market extremely tight throughout the first half of the year.SMM estimates that the global sulfide copper concentrate market will record a supply deficit of approximately 610,000 tonnes of contained copper in 2026. The shortage may not begin to ease until around 2029, when production from a number of new mine projects is expected to come on stream. At the same time, elevated sulfur and sulfuric acid prices have provided an important floor under copper smelter profitability and increased smelters’ ability to absorb deeply negative TCs, at least temporarily. On July 3, the SMM China Copper Smelter Sulfuric Acid Index stood at RMB 1,789 per tonne, up RMB 886 per tonne from RMB 903 per tonne on January 9. The rise in sulfuric acid prices since the beginning of 2026 has become an important earnings driver for Chinese copper smelters and has helped sustain high refined-copper output. Under the combined influence of the mine-smelter supply-demand mismatch and strong by-product margins, spot TCs for imported copper concentrate continued to fall during the first half of 2026. The monthly SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index averaged negative US$121.44 per dry metric tonne in June, down US$18.31 per dry metric tonne from negative US$103.13 per dry metric tonne in May. On a weekly basis, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index was reported at negative US$113.83 per dry metric tonne in early June and subsequently declined continuously to negative US$124.45 per dry metric tonne on June 26. On July 3, the weekly index fell further to negative US$128.25 per dry metric tonne, down US$3.80 per dry metric tonne from the previous assessment. The successive declines through the negative US$100 and negative US$120 per dry metric tonne thresholds demonstrate that the shortage of tradable spot concentrate continued to intensify. I. Supply: New Supply Falls Short of Expectations as Mine-Side Disruptions Continue to Constrain Tradable Availability Although several global copper projects were scheduled to deliver incremental concentrate supply in the first half of 2026, actual production growth came on stream significantly more slowly than the market had previously expected.The central issue on the supply side was not any single mine incident. Rather, disruptions at major mines, declining grades at mature operations, slower-than-expected ramp-ups at new projects, and changes in trade flows collectively reduced the volume of concentrate available for purchase in China’s spot market. Regarding Cobre Panamá, the Panamanian government approved First Quantum Minerals in April to remove, process and export stockpiled ore that had been mined before the operation was suspended. According to SMM, however, the current progress at Cobre Panamá mainly concerns the treatment of existing stockpiles and does not represent a full restart of mining operations.The mine remains subject to complex disputes involving mining rights, taxation, environmental requirements, local communities and political considerations. Consequently, even if a portion of the stockpiled material enters the market during the second half of 2026, its contribution to improving the global copper concentrate balance is expected to remain limited.Related analysis is available in the SMM article, “Cobre Panamá Copper Mine: From a World-Class Mine to a Shutdown Impasse—SGS Audit Signals the Possibility of a Restart”: https://hq.smm.cn/copper/content/103965399 Grasberg remains one of the largest variables affecting global copper concentrate supply in 2026. At the beginning of the year, Freeport-McMoRan forecast approximately 3.4 billion pounds of copper sales for 2026, based on the assumption that the Grasberg Block Cave would restart and ramp up in stages from the second quarter.Because the restart underperformed expectations, Freeport subsequently lowered its 2026 copper sales guidance to approximately 3.1 billion pounds in its first-quarter report. For the imported copper concentrate market, the significance of Grasberg extends beyond the mine’s headline production figures. Other important factors include the proportion of concentrate absorbed by Indonesia’s domestic smelting sector, PTFI’s smelter inventory arrangements, and the actual quantity of material available for shipment to China’s spot market. Should the recovery at Grasberg continue to fall short of expectations in the second half of the year, the shortage of clean spot concentrate is unlikely to ease materially. In Africa, the effects of seismic activity at Kamoa-Kakula remain ongoing. Ivanhoe Mines previously issued 2026 copper production guidance of 380,000–420,000 tonnes for Kamoa-Kakula, followed by 500,000–540,000 tonnes in 2027. The company also stated that dewatering and rehabilitation work at the Kakula mine was continuing.Compared with the previous medium- to long-term target of annualized production exceeding 550,000 tonnes, however, the pace of production growth in 2026 has slowed significantly. Kamoa-Kakula had been expected to be one of the most important sources of global copper concentrate supply growth in recent years. The slowdown in its production ramp-up has therefore further reduced the potential for mine-supply growth to support a recovery in TCs. In Chile, declining grades at mature mines, transitions toward deeper underground mining, and operational accidents continued to constrain supply flexibility. The effects of the 2025 cave-in at El Teniente extended into 2026. Codelco previously stated that the accident had resulted in the loss of tens of thousands of tonnes of copper production in 2025 and would continue to affect the subsequent recovery schedule.The incident illustrates the structural challenges facing Chile’s large and mature mining operations in areas such as deep-level mining, ground-pressure management, and the timely delivery of replacement and mine-life-extension projects. In addition to El Teniente, several other major Chilean mines continued to face declining grades, throughput fluctuations and maintenance-related disruptions, limiting the recovery potential of Chilean clean-concentrate supply. Peru’s supply performance was comparatively more resilient than Chile’s, although incremental production remained highly concentrated among a limited number of operations. Major mines such as Antamina and Las Bambas benefited during certain periods from higher ore grades, improved recoveries and operational normalization, supporting Peru’s overall copper production.From the perspective of the imported spot market, however, Peruvian supply remains exposed to community disruptions, transportation-corridor interruptions, mine-grade transitions and unstable shipment schedules. Moreover, because much of the incremental production is concentrated among a small number of large mines, it is insufficient to fully offset supply losses associated with Grasberg, Cobre Panamá and mature Chilean mines. In Mongolia, the ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine represents one of the relatively few clearly identifiable sources of incremental global mine supply in 2026. Rio Tinto disclosed that its copper production increased by 11% year on year in 2025, primarily due to the strong ramp-up at Oyu Tolgoi.Nevertheless, while additional output from Oyu Tolgoi is contributing to global supply growth, the incremental volume from this single project remains insufficient to reverse the overall tightness in the copper concentrate spot market, given the larger increase in Chinese smelting demand and recurring disruptions at other major mines. According to SMM estimates, disruptions at major global copper mines and incremental production falling short of expectations will have a combined impact of approximately 480,000 tonnes of contained copper in 2026. Uncertainty surrounding the realization of mine supply therefore remains the primary factor driving imported copper concentrate TCs lower. From a trade-flow perspective, China’s copper concentrate imports from Chile and Peru both declined to varying degrees during the first half of 2026. According to customs data, China imported 3.7640 million tonnes of copper concentrate from Chile during January–May 2026, down 228,000 tonnes, or 5.71%, year on year.Imports from Peru totaled 3.1002 million tonnes during the same period, representing a year-on-year decrease of 147,900 tonnes, or 4.55%. Lower arrivals from the principal South American origins intensified competition among Chinese smelters for alternative feedstocks, blended concentrates, land-transported concentrates and off-specification materials. China’s total imports of copper ores and concentrates amounted to 12.2758 million tonnes during January–May 2026, down 1.01% year on year. The modest decline partly reflected the relatively high comparison base in the corresponding period of 2025. Other contributing factors included strong consumption of copper anode and blister copper in the first quarter, temporary adjustments to some smelters’ raw-material mix, and changes in the arrival schedule of term-contract cargoes.The decline in headline import volumes should therefore not be interpreted simply as evidence of materially weaker concentrate demand from domestic smelters, nor does it have a direct one-to-one relationship with spot TC movements.For the spot market, the more important variables are the marginal volume available outside term contracts, the share of mainstream clean concentrate in the available supply pool, and smelters’ periodic inventory-replenishment requirements. During the first half of 2026, new smelting capacity, continued demand for off-contract inventory replenishment, and frequent mine disruptions kept the spot market tight even though the decline in apparent import volumes was limited. Spot TCs consequently remained under sustained downward pressure. II. Demand: China’s Smelting Expansion Continues While Production Cuts Remain Fragmented On the demand side, Chinese copper smelters remain the principal source of incremental global copper concentrate consumption. Although deeply negative TCs continued to compress core smelting margins during the first half of 2026, and some smelters temporarily reduced operating rates because of maintenance, feedstock constraints and processing-margin losses, the continued commissioning of new and expanded primary smelting capacity kept concentrate demand relatively inelastic. According to SMM statistics, new and expanded primary smelting capacity in China in 2026 is expected to correspond to approximately 800,000 tonnes of contained copper.Newly commissioned capacity typically requires substantial initial feedstock inventories. Even when spot TCs are deeply negative, new production lines must continue purchasing concentrate to ensure operational stability, complete equipment commissioning and ramp-up, and maintain market share. As a result, the practical effectiveness of production cuts by smelters as a mechanism for restoring TCs has been significantly weakened. The Chinese smelting sector in the first half of 2026 was characterized by the coexistence of maintenance-related disruptions and demand generated by capacity expansion. On the one hand, several smelters scheduled maintenance during the second quarter, temporarily reducing concentrate consumption. On the other hand, ramp-ups at newly commissioned facilities, term-contract obligations, low inventory safety margins and strong sulfuric acid earnings prevented smelters from implementing coordinated production cuts.Particularly in an environment where imported concentrate inventories remained structurally tight, some smelters continued to make essential market inquiries to secure production continuity, even when they reduced the frequency of their spot purchases. III. Smelting Economics: Strong Sulfuric Acid Margins Increase Tolerance for Negative TCs, but Volatility Risks Are Rising The earnings structure of copper smelters changed materially during the first half of 2026. Traditionally, smelter profitability has primarily been derived from TC/RC income and credits from gold, silver and other by-products. With spot TCs for imported copper concentrate moving deeply into negative territory, however, processing-fee income fell sharply and sulfuric acid margins became significantly more important. Overall copper smelting margins were weaker in the early part of the first half and improved later in the period. Declining TCs imposed substantial pressure on profitability, but elevated sulfuric acid prices, strong precious-metal prices and improved returns from certain other by-products provided a partial offset.Approximately 3.5–4.0 tonnes of sulfuric acid are produced as a by-product for every tonne of refined copper output. When sulfuric acid prices are high, acid earnings can substantially offset the impact of negative TCs and rising smelting costs. Nevertheless, according to SMM estimates, spot-based smelting margins at Chinese copper smelters have now approached break-even, and smelters have become noticeably less willing to purchase spot cargoes at increasingly unfavorable TCs. The rise in sulfuric acid prices has mainly been driven by two factors. First, geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, tight sulfur supply and higher import costs raised the cost base of sulfuric acid production. Second, demand from phosphate fertilizers, chemicals, hydrometallurgical operations and battery-material producers provided broad-based downstream support.The sharp rise in sulfuric acid prices has reshaped the economics of copper smelting in China, with acid earnings accounting for a substantially larger proportion of smelters’ non-TC/RC income. This was also an important reason why Chinese smelters did not implement large-scale voluntary production cuts during the first half of 2026 despite the continued decline in TCs. The support provided by sulfuric acid margins is not without risk, however. Should geopolitical disruptions ease in the second half of the year, sulfur supply recover, or restrictions on Chinese sulfuric acid exports result in more material being redirected to the domestic market, sulfuric acid prices could retreat from their elevated levels.If acid margins narrow while copper concentrate TCs remain deeply negative, pressure on smelter profitability will become more visible again. Some higher-cost smelters may respond by extending maintenance periods, reducing utilization rates or cutting spot concentrate purchases. Sulfuric acid prices will therefore be one of the key variables determining whether TCs can stabilize during the second half of the year. IV. Spot Market: Frequent Mine Tenders and the Emergence of Index-Minus Pricing Trading activity in the imported copper concentrate spot market was uneven during the first half of 2026, but mine tenders and trader offers remained important channels for price discovery. As spot TCs continued to decline, outright fixed-price transactions repeatedly established new market lows, while index-minus pricing gradually became the dominant quotation format. Since the second quarter, trader offers have increasingly been expressed as an average of the SMM and Fastmarkets indices minus an additional differential. This pricing method indicates that, in an environment of continuously declining spot TCs, concentrate sellers increasingly prefer index-linked formulas that preserve their exposure to further downward movements in TCs. Smelters’ purchasing behavior remained conflicted. On the one hand, deeply negative TCs continued to compress smelting margins, limiting smelters’ willingness to accept expensive spot concentrate carrying extremely unfavorable processing terms. Some companies therefore reduced the frequency of their active inquiries.On the other hand, ramp-ups at new smelting facilities, insufficient inventory safety margins and uncertainty surrounding term-contract arrivals meant that some smelters still needed to replenish stocks to meet essential production requirements. Consequently, the market did not experience a collective withdrawal of buyers sufficient to drive a meaningful recovery in TCs. Instead, continuously lower mine-tender settlements pushed the spot index further into deeply negative territory. V. H2 Outlook: Limited Marginal Supply Recovery and Persistently Deeply Negative TCs Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, the imported copper concentrate spot market will continue to be driven by the interaction between the actual realization of mine-supply recovery and the resilience of Chinese smelting demand.On the supply side, the treatment of Cobre Panamá stockpiles, progress in the Grasberg restart, incremental production from Oyu Tolgoi, and shipment stability at major Peruvian mines may provide some marginal improvement. Based on current developments, however, Cobre Panamá has not achieved a full restart, the Grasberg recovery schedule has already been revised downward, production growth at Kamoa-Kakula has slowed, and mature Chilean mines remain exposed to declining grades and safety-related disruptions. The conditions required for a substantial easing of the global copper concentrate market are therefore not yet in place. On the demand side, new and expanded Chinese primary smelting capacity will continue to support structurally strong concentrate consumption. Although some smelters may temporarily reduce production because of losses, maintenance or feedstock constraints, the ramp-up of newly commissioned projects, the fulfillment of term contracts, sulfuric acid margins and regional refined-copper price differentials will continue to weaken the impact of production cuts on TCs.Should the effect of maintenance outages gradually diminish during the third quarter while newly commissioned capacity continues to ramp up, China’s demand for imported copper concentrate is likely to remain elevated on a sequential basis. Sulfuric acid prices will remain a key variable for smelting profitability in the second half of the year. Should sulfuric acid prices remain elevated or rise further, smelters will continue to demonstrate a relatively strong capacity to absorb negative TCs, limiting the potential for a recovery in spot TCs. Conversely, should sulfuric acid prices retreat from their highs, pressure on smelter profitability will increase again. Some smelters may respond by extending maintenance, cutting operating rates or reducing spot purchases, potentially allowing TCs to stabilize or recover modestly for a period. In the spot market, mine-tender results will remain an important leading indicator for TC movements in the second half of the year. As term-contract pricing becomes increasingly index-linked and more spot transactions adopt index-minus formulas, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index is expected to play an even stronger role as the principal pricing anchor for market transactions. Should mine-tender settlements remain deeply negative, spot TCs may fall further. Conversely, if incremental volumes from the Grasberg recovery, Cobre Panamá stockpile processing and Oyu Tolgoi materialize at the same time, while maintenance activity among smelters increases, TCs may stage a temporary recovery. Overall, some marginal improvement in imported copper concentrate supply is possible during the second half of 2026. Nevertheless, given the continued commissioning of new Chinese smelting capacity, the shortage of tradable concentrate, and the support that strong sulfuric acid margins provide to smelter operating rates, a sustained and substantial recovery in spot TCs appears unlikely. Spot TCs for imported copper concentrate are therefore expected to remain volatile within deeply negative territory during the second half of the year. Any temporary recovery will depend largely on the actual realization of mine restarts, the extent to which smelters implement maintenance and production cuts, and changes in sulfuric acid profitability.

SQM and Codelco's lithium joint venture, Novandino, has outlined plans in an environmental impact assessment (EIA) filing to increase annual lithium production capacity from around 270,000 mt currently to as much as 470,000 mt. The expansion is aimed at meeting long-term demand from electric vehicles and grid-scale energy storage. According to the filing, production will first gradually rise to around 300,000 mt before transitioning over seven years to an integrated production system incorporating direct lithium extraction (DLE), with additional capacity expected to come online over several years.

Anglo American and Chile's state-owned miner Codelco have completed a definitive agreement to integrate the mine plans for the adjacent Los Bronces and Andina copper operations after receiving all required regulatory approvals. The joint mine plan is expected to deliver an additional 2.7 million tonnes of copper between 2030 and 2051, generating more than US$5 billion in pre-tax net present value, with benefits shared equally by both companies.

Anglo American and Chile's state-owned miner Codelco have finalized a joint mine plan agreement to integrate the development of their neighbouring Los Bronces and Andina copper operations. Subject to regulatory approvals, the project is expected to add approximately 2.7 million tonnes of copper production over the next 21 years, with average annual incremental output of around 120,000 tonnes of low-cost copper shared equally between the two companies. The partners estimate the collaboration could unlock at least US$5 billion in value by optimizing mine sequencing, sharing infrastructure and improving resource utilization without requiring significant additional capital investment. The agreement is expected to strengthen Chile's position as the world's leading copper producer and support its goal of increasing national copper output to 6 million tonnes by 2030.

SMM, June 18: The Regulations for the Implementation of the Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China, which took effect on June 15, listed 36 types of minerals, including rare earths, tungsten, lithium, cobalt, gallium, and germanium, as national-level strategic minerals, subjecting them to full-chain, high-intensity control. The prices of Pr-Nd oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide saw their third consecutive daily increase on June 17; Orient Zirconium issued a price adjustment notice, raising the prices of its related zirconium products effective June 18, 2026; and the favor of some market funds all contributed to the opening strength of the minor metal sector. As of around 9:57 on June 18, the minor metal industry sector rose by 3.09%. In terms of individual stocks: Orient Zirconium, Shenghe Resources, and Zhongxi Nonferrous hit the daily limit; China Rare Earth, Jintian Titanium, China Northern Rare Earth, China Tungsten High-Tech, Tin Industry Co., and Yunnan Germanium led the gains. Market News Orient Zirconium raised the prices of its related zirconium products effective June 18, 2026 On June 18, Orient Zirconium issued a product price adjustment notice. The notice indicated that based on current market conditions, Orient Zirconium decided to raise the prices of its related zirconium products starting from June 18, 2026, with the price adjustments as follows: zirconium oxychloride products (including mother liquor materials) increased by 1,500 yuan/mt; zirconium dioxide products increased by 4,500 yuan/mt; fused zirconium products increased by 2,000 yuan/mt; at the same time, the prices of other zirconium series products from Orient Zirconium will be adjusted accordingly. [Aidite: The company has already laid out a powder substitute plan and fully implemented it; the new material can replace the original imported powder] On June 17, Aidite stated on an interactive platform while answering investor questions that the company had received a notice from Japan's Tosoh regarding the suspension of zirconia powder supply. To ensure the stability of its own supply, the company had already laid out a powder substitute plan and fully implemented it; the new material can replace the original imported powder, and the entire new product line has passed rigorous customer verification. Currently, several core major clients have completed the switch and signed long-term orders at the recent dealer conference. The company will actively take a series of measures to avoid any adverse impact from the Japanese powder supply disruption. In the future, the company will seize the window of opportunity for high-quality material breakthroughs and, leveraging its technical and delivery advantages, continue to expand its market share. Spot Market Zirconium According to the SMM price assessment, on June 18, the price of zirconium oxychloride (Zr(Hf)O2≥36%) was quoted at 17,500-18,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 17,750 yuan/mt, up 5.97% from the previous trading day. The zirconium industry chain had long been under pressure, with sluggish traditional demand from ceramics and high industry inventories. Zircon sand and zirconium oxide prices persistently hovered at lows, trading was sluggish, and the market was at the bottom of the cycle. Since entering Q2 this year, driven by export controls on zirconium products to Japan, price hikes by overseas zirconium ore producers, and demand expectations for solid-state batteries, zirconium raw material prices stopped falling and stabilized, inventories destocked, and the industry moved out of the bottom range, embarking on a volatile recovery trend. Upstream zircon sand imports have tightened, overseas miners continue to raise prices, and cost support has been strengthening. Dongfang Zirconium Industry completed a round of price hikes in April and raised zirconium product prices again on June 18. For the zirconium market outlook, supported by tightening raw material supply, zirconium prices will hold up well in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in raw material supply and downstream demand. Rare Earth In the rare earth market: Rare earth oxide prices were relatively stable overall, but downstream purchasing activity has decreased as the holiday approaches. Pr-Nd oxide and dysprosium oxide ended their three-day winning streak and both pulled back slightly on June 18, while terbium oxide prices held steady on June 18 after a previous three-day rise. Expectations for production cuts in the scrap recycling sector and news-driven factors previously drove Pr-Nd prices, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide higher. However, after the afternoon session on June 17, shipments of Pr-Nd oxide from traders increased slightly, and the center of the actual trading range shifted lower. For medium-heavy rare earths, oxide suppliers held firm offer prices, but actual buying from metal enterprises was limited, and downstream magnetic material enterprises showed limited acceptance of high metal prices. Affected by the stalemate in market trading, rare earth prices are expected to move sideways in the short term. Tin Additionally, in the tin market: On June 18, the average price of SMM 1# tin fell 0.93% from the previous trading day. Driven by the US Fed keeping rates unchanged but signaling a hawkish bias, with half of policymakers expecting rate hikes this year, nonferrous metals fell overall and tin prices also pulled back. Currently, on the fundamental side: (1) Supply side: In June, most smelters focused on maintaining stable production. (2) Demand side: Downstream purchases were cautious, buying according to orders. Spot market: Overall trading sentiment in the spot market was light. Although tin prices have pulled back, they remain at relatively high levels and the holiday is approaching. Additionally, as the electronics industry enters its traditional off-season, downstream enterprises such as solder makers are only purchasing on a "buy on dips for essential needs" basis. Institutional Views Guojin Securities’ research report on June 14 showed: Rare Earth: Dysprosium oxide may benefit from the boost by MLCC, with a significant rebound trend from price lows. From the start of the year, the price center has continued to rise. We believe this is likely related to supply-side documents released in 2024-2025, with ongoing supply-side reform in the industry. Exports fell 1% YoY for full-year 2025, while exports from early 2026 to date have increased significantly, indicating strong restocking demand outside China. The rare earth sector will continue to see dual improvements in valuation and performance, and 2026 is also a key year for resolving industry competition among key targets. On the resource side, attention is recommended for China Rare Earth (medium-heavy rare earth leader, biggest beneficiary of supply-side reform), Zhongxi Nonferrous (undervalued, high-growth South China rare earth leader), and China Northern Rare Earth (light rare earth leader, with significant cost advantages); other related targets include Bao Gang United Steel, JL MAG Rare-Earth, etc. Tin: It believes that invisible inventory of tin ingots is gradually drying up, so tin prices are expected to strengthen under the backfill of macro liquidity or spillover from tech markets. The supply-demand pattern for tin will improve in the long term. Tungsten: This period, tungsten prices continued their rebound trend. It believes that against the backdrop of increased strategic stockpiling outside China, tungsten may have higher priority; tungsten's supply-demand fundamentals have seen strong resonance. Molybdenum: The destocking of imported ore has been significant, and domestic molybdenum prices have stabilized and rebounded. Steel procurement volume remains robust, destocking along the industry chain is progressing, and the deadlock of molybdenum prices with "volume but no price" is gradually being broken, with the upward channel becoming clearer. Molybdenum is also a military metal, with persistently low inventory, and increased defense spending outside China may further boost molybdenum prices. Huafu Securities’ research report on June 14 showed: Other Minor Metals: Industry leaders' long-term contract performance was impressive, and market sentiment in tungsten clearly stabilized. The tungsten market overall has walked out of a mild recovery, with the previous consolidation at lows being reversed somewhat. Industry leaders' long-term contract transactions were impressive, serving as a key driver for the upward movement in futures, and overall market sentiment clearly stabilized. However, the spot and scattered cargo atmosphere remained mediocre, with no widespread price-following adjustments upstream or downstream, and the rebound pace was gentle, with the market overall in a stage of steady recovery. Open Source Securities' 2026 mid-year investment strategy for the metals industry showed: Copper: Supply side, most miners outside China still face declining grades and recovery rates, and disruptive factors persist (Ivanhoe’s KK copper mine, Codelco’s El Teniente copper mine). While Chinese enterprises are increasing output, the overall increase is limited. Under an optimistic scenario, global supply growth may be below 2% in 2026-2027. Demand side, H1 electricity demand in China and the US maintained high growth rates, which may contribute marginal increments to copper demand. Open Source Securities believes that the supply-demand structure contradiction for copper will further highlight in 2026, supporting the rise in copper price center. Lithium: On the supply side of the lithium industry, capital spending cuts and the gradual formation of supply discipline, coupled with frequent disruptions, have led to a marked decline in supply elasticity compared with the past. Meanwhile, sustained strong demand from the energy storage sector is improving the structure of lithium demand, while industry inventory pressure is easing marginally. Lithium prices are expected to see a phased recovery. Enterprises with advantages in resource security, low costs and integrated layout are likely to show stronger earnings recovery than the industry average. Lithium mines and lithium chemicals companies with high resource self-sufficiency and strong cost control deserve attention. Tungsten: As an advantaged strategic metal in China, tungsten mine supply is constrained by resource depletion, environmental protection and other factors. Together with the total mining volume control implemented by the state, tungsten mine production release is limited. On the demand side, emerging sectors are boosting tungsten demand, which is expected to support tungsten prices over the long term. Recommended reading: