Refined Cobalt: This week, spot refined cobalt prices trended downward under the influence of capital flows and macro sentiment. Supply side, mainstream smelters kept ex-factory prices stable; after spot prices fell, traders' sentiment to hold prices firm strengthened, and spot-futures price spread quotations were raised to above parity. Demand side, lower spot prices improved downstream purchasing sentiment and slightly lifted transactions, but affected by fluctuations in related metals, downstream buyers remained cautious and mainly made just-in-time procurement. This week, the DRC announced an extension of cobalt intermediate product export quotas for Q4 2025, increasing export uncertainty; the structurally tight raw material situation in China remained unresolved, providing bottom support for cobalt prices. Cobalt Intermediate Products: This week, cobalt intermediate product prices edged up. The DRC announced its quota extension policy, under which Q4 2025 quotas can be extended by up to one month, and Q1 2026 quotas can be extended to the end of June; it is understood that the core reason for the current slow approval process for intermediate products is the lack of local detection personnel. Supply side, some miners sold small volumes of futures cobalt intermediate products this week, with quotations above $25.9/lb. Demand side, most smelters remained on the sidelines as cobalt salt prices struggled to catch up and available-for-sale intermediate products were scarce, and actual transactions were sluggish. Overall, based on the current pace of shipments, large-volume arrivals of cobalt intermediate products at port may be delayed to June-July. After downstream orders become clear and procurement demand is released, intermediate product prices will still have upside room. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to export progress in the DRC and the pace of downstream demand recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: This week, the spot market for cobalt sulphate operated steadily, with no significant price fluctuations, and overall continued to move sideways within a narrow range. Supply side, the continued tightness in raw materials supported smelter quotations, with the mainstream quotation range stable at 95,000-98,000 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the week, a small number of enterprises made low-priced shipments at 91,000-95,000 yuan/mt due to financial reporting and funding pressure, but these enterprises have now basically completed cash realization. Demand remained mediocre, as downstream enterprises were still cautious about expectations for subsequent orders, and their own raw material inventory remained ample, resulting in low purchasing enthusiasm. They only purchased small volumes of low-priced cargoes as needed, and overall market trading activity was weak. In the short term, the market remained in an inventory digestion cycle, with buyers and sellers in a stalemate, making large price swings unlikely. In the long term, uncertainty over raw material supply from the DRC will still support the cost side. As downstream inventories are effectively depleted, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to gradually rebound and recover.

This week, the Co3O4 market maintained a stable operating trend, with overall activity still relatively subdued. Quotations from top-tier enterprises remained at a high level of around 370,000 yuan/mt, while the ongoing phase of tight inventory of cobalt intermediate products continued to provide effective support for prices from the cost side. On the downstream LCO material plant side, the procurement pace still mainly followed immediate needs, with small-volume restocking mostly arranged based on orders on hand. Market inquiry sentiment edged up slightly from the previous week, but the overall improvement remained limited. Looking ahead, the release pace of end-use demand will be the core variable determining procurement intensity on the cathode material side. With demand still clearly weak, the Co3O4 market was still expected to remain mainly stable in the short term, and market participants maintained a wait-and-see stance.

This week, the Co3O4 market maintained a stable trend, with overall activity still relatively weak. Quotations from top-tier enterprises remained at a high level of around 370,000 yuan/mt, while the tight inventory of cobalt intermediate products continued to provide cost support for prices. However, downstream LCO material plants did not accelerate their procurement pace, mostly conducting small-scale restocking based on orders on hand, and market inquiry sentiment improved slightly WoW. Going forward, the pace of end-use demand will become the key variable determining the procurement intensity of cathode materials. In the short term, the Co3O4 market will still mainly remain stable, awaiting further clarity on the demand side.

This week, the Co3O4 market continued to operate steadily, with overall trading activity remaining relatively subdued. Quotations from mainstream enterprises still held firm at around 370,000 yuan/mt, supported by tight inventory of cobalt intermediate products on the cost side, which remained resilient. However, demand-side performance was even more mediocre WoW, as the procurement pace at downstream LCO material plants slowed down further, with most adopting produce based on sales and restocking only as needed, while inquiry and transaction sentiment cooled slightly. Amid the continued tug-of-war between suppliers holding prices firm and buyers remaining cautious, the market still lacked clear directional guidance in the short term. Prices were expected to remain largely stable, with limited room for fluctuations.

Refined Cobalt: This week, spot refined cobalt prices generally fluctuated around 430,000 yuan/mt. During the week, prices briefly surged on news of procurement by overseas traders and export controls in the DRC, but later pulled back into the fluctuation range as macro sentiment weakened and downstream procurement follow-through proved insufficient. In terms of supply, ex-factory prices at mainstream smelters remained stable, traders' spot-futures price spread quotations were steady, and there were no significant changes in the structure of cargoes circulating in the market. In terms of demand, affected by weak cost pass-through, downstream enterprises still showed low acceptance of high-priced raw materials and only maintained a pace of just-in-time stockpiling, with no significant increase seen in actual transactions. Fundamentally, the DRC's export control policy further increased uncertainty over cobalt intermediate products exports, while the pattern of structural tightness in China's raw material supply remained unchanged, continuing to provide bottom support for cobalt prices. Cobalt Intermediate Products: This week, cobalt intermediate product prices continued to hold steady, and the market remained in a pattern of "prices quoted but no trading." In terms of supply, the impact of the DRC's export control policy continued to unfold, market concerns over whether miners could ship smoothly intensified, suppliers' bullish expectations heated up, and they continued to withhold quotations, leaving extremely scarce spot cargoes available in the market. In terms of demand, although smelters still had willingness to procure raw materials, constrained by cobalt salt prices that struggled to catch up, and with downstream orders yet to become clear, enterprises maintained a cautious wait-and-see stance, and actual transactions remained sluggish. Overall, ongoing disruptions in the DRC's export process continued to cast doubt on the timing of bulk arrivals at port, and the structurally tight raw material situation in China may further intensify. Once downstream orders are gradually finalized and procurement demand restarts, intermediate product prices are still expected to have upward momentum. Close attention should be paid to the progress of DRC exports and the pace of downstream demand recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: This week, spot cobalt sulphate prices continued to remain stable. In terms of supply, supported by tight raw materials, most smelters held firm on quotations in the range of 95,000-98,000 yuan/mt. During the week, the DRC's export control document strengthened traders' expectations for a rise in future cobalt salt prices, and low-priced shipments in the market decreased significantly. In terms of demand, most enterprises remained concerned about future orders, and with their own raw material inventory relatively sufficient, they prioritized inventory consumption and only maintained sporadic just-in-time procurement, mainly at low prices. Overall, the market remained in the inventory digestion stage in the short term, with continued bargaining between sellers and buyers, and prices were mainly driven by rangebound adjustments. However, the DRC raw material supply issue has yet to be resolved, and cost support still exists. Once downstream inventories are depleted and procurement restarts, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to regain upward momentum.

Refined Cobalt: This week, spot refined cobalt fluctuated rangebound around 430,000 yuan/mt. On the supply side, mainstream smelters slightly lowered ex-factory prices, while traders' spot-futures price spread remained stable: regular brands were at discounts of 2,000 yuan/mt to parity, and high-end brands at premiums of 5,000–8,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, cost pass-through downstream remained sluggish, with market participants mainly staying on the sidelines. Only sporadic rigid-demand restocking emerged, and transactions had yet to gain volume. Fundamentally, the arrival period for cobalt intermediate products remained unclear, and the structural tightness in raw materials was unchanged, leaving support at the bottom still in place. Looking ahead, as restocking demand is gradually released, refined cobalt prices are still expected to have upside room. Cobalt Intermediate Products: This week, cobalt intermediate product prices continued to hold steady. On the supply side, miners' export progress was slow, holders temporarily held back offers, and spot cargo available for circulation was scarce. On the demand side, raw material shortages at smelters worsened. Although purchase willingness remained, both buyers and sellers stayed cautious due to unstable supply and unclear downstream orders, and the market continued to see "offers but no trades." Overall, export delays cast doubt on the timing of bulk arrivals, and the structural tightness in raw materials in China may worsen further; once downstream orders are finalized and procurement restarts, intermediate product prices are still expected to have upward momentum. Going forward, attention should be paid to export progress in the DRC and the pace of demand recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: This week, spot cobalt sulphate prices held steady. On the supply side, supported by tight raw materials, most smelters kept offers firm in the 95,000–98,000 yuan/mt range; small smelters and traders under capital pressure had already completed cashing out from last week to early this week, and low-price offers in the market narrowed. On the demand side, uncertainty over downstream orders persisted, with most enterprises remaining on the sidelines. Post-holiday stockpiling willingness had yet to start, with only sporadic rigid-demand restocking and priority given to lower-priced cargoes. In the short term, the market remained in a period of social inventory digestion, with rangebound adjustments dominating; however, the raw material supply bottleneck in the DRC remained unresolved, domestic supply tightened periodically, and cost support still existed. After low-priced inventory is depleted, prices are expected to resume their rise.

This week, the Co3O4 market maintained a stable trend, with overall activity remaining weak. Quotes from top-tier enterprises were still firm at around 370,000 yuan/mt, supported strongly on the cost side by tight inventory of cobalt intermediate products. However, demand was even more mediocre WoW, as the procurement pace of downstream LCO material plants slowed down further, with most purchases limited to small-scale restocking based on orders on hand, leading to slight declines in both market inquiries and transaction activity. Amid the ongoing tug-of-war between firm sellers and cautious buyers, the market was still expected to remain stable in the short term, with limited room for price fluctuations.

So far, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel is $15,658/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt is $49,660/mt Co. The MHP payables (against SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) are 88-89, and the payable indicator for MHP cobalt element (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) is 91. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte is $16,021/mt Ni.

Refined Cobalt: This week, spot prices for refined cobalt rebounded from previous lows. Supply side, mainstream smelters steadily raised their ex-works quotations in line with the increase in electronic trading prices. Traders' spot-futures price spreads generally held steady, with spreads for regular brands maintained at discounts of around 2,000 yuan/mt to parity, while spreads for high-end brands remained at premiums of 4,000-6,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream enterprises had just resumed production in the first week after the holiday, mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and actual market transactions had not yet shown a significant increase. The rebound in refined cobalt prices this week was mainly driven by two factors: first, domestic refined cobalt prices had been lower than overseas market prices for an extended period before the Chinese New Year, creating a need for price spread correction; second, recent news that some overseas companies plan to purchase refined cobalt boosted market sentiment. From a fundamental perspective, cobalt intermediate product raw materials have still not arrived in large volumes at ports, and the structurally tight supply of upstream raw materials has not fundamentally changed, which continues to provide some support for cobalt prices. Looking ahead, as downstream enterprises' restocking demand is gradually released, refined cobalt prices are expected to still have upside room. Cobalt Intermediate Products: This week, the cobalt intermediate products market continued to hold up well. Supply side, it is understood that export procedures in the DRC remain relatively cumbersome, and miners have not yet achieved large-scale shipments. Suppliers' expectations for price increases have strengthened, leading them to continue suspending external quotations. Demand side, as time passes, the issue of raw material shortages for domestic smelters has become increasingly prominent. Although some enterprises have purchase willingness, due to the inability of the supply side to guarantee stable shipments and the lack of clarity in downstream orders, smelters are exercising caution in procurement amid uncertainties on both the purchasing and sales sides. Actual market transactions remain sluggish, continuing a state of "price without market." Overall, the current export progress of cobalt intermediate products is slow, and the timeline for large-scale arrivals at ports may continue to be delayed. The structurally tight supply of domestic cobalt raw materials could further intensify. It is expected that after downstream orders gradually become clear post-holiday and smelters initiate a new round of procurement, intermediate product prices will still have upward momentum. Subsequent attention should be paid to the progress of DRC exports and the pace of downstream demand recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: This week marked the first trading week after the Chinese New Year. The spot cobalt sulphate market performed sluggishly overall, with prices remaining stable. In terms of supply, most smelters had just resumed operations, and market sentiment remained dominated by a wait-and-see attitude. Producers continued to suspend quotations, leading to relatively tight spot availability. On the demand side, logistics had not fully recovered in the first week after the holiday, and downstream enterprises also adopted a wait-and-see stance. Actual transactions were limited, and overall market activity was subdued. Looking ahead, logistics are expected to gradually return to normal after the Lantern Festival. Coupled with downstream enterprises' inventory levels pulling back to near safety thresholds, restocking demand is anticipated to be released gradually. Against the backdrop of phased supply tightening and sustained raw material cost support, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to resume an upward trend.

The Co3O4 market started the week on a stable note, with top-tier enterprises maintaining their offers at a high level of 370,000 yuan per mt, demonstrating strong confidence in holding prices firm. No transactions were observed in the market so far. Supply side, the tight inventory of cobalt intermediate products as raw materials remained unresolved, and smelters relied on externally purchased cobalt salt and recycled materials to sustain production, keeping cost support robust. Demand side, performance was relatively mediocre, as downstream cathode material enterprises mainly consumed their pre-holiday stockpiling. Market activity is expected to improve significantly in March, with prices likely to rise further.