SMM May 15 update: Cobalt product prices remained generally stable this week, with only refined cobalt and cobalt chloride prices edging down slightly, though overall fluctuations were relatively small. Among them, cobalt chloride market activity declined further, with scarce inquiries becoming a common feedback... SMM compiled the spot price fluctuations of cobalt products this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot quotes, spot refined cobalt prices edged down 500 yuan/mt this week before stabilizing temporarily. As of May 15, spot refined cobalt was quoted at 421,500-428,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 425,000 yuan/mt, down 0.12% from 425,500 yuan/mt on May 8. Fundamentals side, supply side, according to SMM, smelter quotes remained stable, while traders lowered the spot-futures price spread of mainstream brands to a premium of 7,000-8,000 yuan/mt to recoup funds. Demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued purchasing as needed, strictly controlling raw material inventory levels. Price spread structure side, the metal price spread between refined cobalt and lower-priced cobalt salts continued to stay at a relatively low level, limiting enterprises' enthusiasm for producing refined cobalt through the re-dissolution process. In the short term, SMM expects refined cobalt prices to continue consolidating, with future upside still dependent on effective price boosts from cobalt salts. Cobalt salts ( and): : According to SMM spot quotes, spot cobalt sulphate prices continued to hold stable this week. As of May 15, spot cobalt sulphate remained steady at 93,200-95,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 94,500 yuan/mt. According to SMM, on the cobalt sulphate supply side this week, mainstream brand quote centers remained in the 93,000-96,000 yuan/mt range. Boosted by the rebound in refined cobalt prices, some smelters and traders that had previously offered discounts to facilitate shipments raised their quotes slightly, and low-priced cargoes below 90,000 yuan/mt decreased significantly. Demand side, downstream enterprises still focused on digesting earlier inventory, with low enthusiasm for purchasing, and only a few with rigid demand restocked small volumes at lower prices. Notably, some Co3O4 enterprises increased their inquiry frequency recently, with purchasing sentiment showing signs of recovery. Production schedule side, both ternary and LCO enterprises saw restorative MoM growth in May production schedules. It is expected that as downstream restocking demand gradually releases going forward, cobalt sulphate prices are likely to see a phased rebound and recovery. : According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt chloride spot prices edged down by 100 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week and then stabilized. As of May 15, cobalt chloride spot prices stood at 114,000–117,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 115,500 yuan/mt, down 0.09% from May 8. Spot market: According to SMM, cobalt chloride market activity further declined this week, with scarce inquiries being a common feedback. Supply side, some top-tier players notably slowed down their shipment pace recently, with liquidity pressure emerging and quotes slightly softening; meanwhile, small and medium-sized producers had already proactively lowered prices earlier due to capital recovery and shipment pressure, and their current quotes have gradually stabilized with extremely limited room for further reduction. Demand side, downstream Co3O4 enterprises, constrained by their own significant shipment pressure, showed weak willingness to purchase cobalt chloride; in contrast, cathode material and battery cell segments, due to continued inventory depletion, recently began to release some restocking intentions. Overall, the market still lacked directional breakthrough momentum. Although sporadic low-price transactions occurred, they were unlikely to substantially impact overall pricing, constrained by enterprises' performance targets, capital conditions, and shipment volumes. Currently, downward momentum is insufficient, and raw material costs provide relatively strong bottom support. Cobalt chloride market is expected to remain largely stable in the near term, with substantive changes potentially awaiting late May . : According to SMM spot quotes, Co3O4 spot prices continued to hold stable this week. As of May 15, Co3O4 spot prices remained steady at 360,000–367,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 363,500 yuan/mt. Spot market: According to SMM, the Co3O4 market continued its previously sluggish pattern this week. Top-tier players slightly lowered their quotes, but cost support for Co3O4 remained effective, underpinned by periodically tight supply of cobalt intermediate products and firm cobalt chloride prices. Downstream LCO material enterprises continued to purchase as needed, restocking in small quantities mainly based on orders on hand, with market inquiry activity maintained at a moderate level. Looking ahead, end-use demand performance remains the key variable determining cathode material purchasing intensity. Given that market expectations for May are generally optimistic, attention should be paid to whether demand recovery can break the prolonged stable pattern and bring about periodic fluctuations. As for raw material cobalt intermediate products: According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) spot prices held stable at 25.8–26.2 $/lb this week, temporarily unchanged from May 8. According to SMM, on the supply side, most suppliers held an optimistic outlook for the market, with offers continuing to hold firm above $26/lb. The demand side saw little change; as cobalt salt prices lacked upward momentum, the market maintained only small-volume purchasing as needed, with bid prices fluctuating around approximately $25.8/lb. Regarding shipments, DRC-origin cargoes remained stranded at South African ports and in overland transit. Only a few miners completed small-batch vessel bookings in April, with arrivals expected to begin in June; however, due to tight shipping capacity in Africa, the remaining large-volume cargoes may be delayed until July for concentrated arrivals. Looking ahead, as downstream orders gradually become clearer and restocking demand is progressively released, cobalt intermediate product prices still have room for upward recovery. On the news front, on May 13, Hanrui Cobalt released its investor relations activity record. When asked about the company's cobalt powder business, Hanrui Cobalt stated that the company is a major global cobalt powder supplier, ranking among the top three in global market share. It is currently steadily increasing the product share in high-end cemented carbide and battery sectors, with client recognition continuing to strengthen. Cobalt salt gross margins have been continuously improving, and as the market recovers, capacity is released, and the product mix upgrades, profitability is expected to gradually recover. Regarding the outlook for cobalt price trends in 2026, Hanrui Cobalt stated that cobalt price trends are influenced by multiple factors. From a supply and demand perspective, with the implementation of the cobalt export quota system in the DRC, the world's largest cobalt-producing country, cobalt supply has contracted significantly, and overall supply and demand are currently in a tight balance. In addition, on May 12, SMM Vice President Shirley Wang attended the Cobalt Institute annual conference held in Madrid, Spain, and delivered a keynote speech in the opening session on the current status and outlook of China's cobalt market. Regarding cobalt price trends, she stated that although theoretical calculations suggest that in Q2 to Q3 2026, the concentrated arrival of previously backlogged cobalt intermediate products will cause the cobalt raw material supply-demand balance to temporarily reverse into an inventory buildup state, putting downward pressure on cobalt prices, the limited volume of available cobalt intermediate products in the market—constrained by inventory levels and market sales pace—will provide strong support for cobalt prices. Prices are expected to edge up after several months, but with a clear upward ceiling. She also noted that raw material inventory levels, other raw material supply (such as MHP and refined cobalt), and the shipment pace of cobalt intermediate products are the biggest uncertainty factors affecting price trends.

SMM May 8: In the first week after the holiday, prices of most cobalt products remained stable. Spot refined cobalt prices also held steady after rising 3,500 yuan/mt on the first trading day post-holiday. Meanwhile, spot cobalt sulphate prices stopped falling and stabilized after the holiday. The market currently holds an optimistic view on downstream production schedules for May. Under these circumstances, how will cobalt series products perform? SMM compiled the relevant price changes of cobalt series products this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot prices, spot refined cobalt prices rose post-holiday and then maintained a fluctuating trend this week. As of May 8, spot refined cobalt prices rose to 422,000-429,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 425,500 yuan/mt, up 3,500 yuan/mt from 422,000 yuan/mt on the last trading day before the holiday, a gain of 0.83%. Supply and demand side, on the supply side, mainstream refined cobalt smelters slightly raised ex-factory prices, while other smelters maintained parity; traders lowered the spot-futures price spread of mainstream brands to a premium of 7,000-8,000 yuan/mt to accelerate capital turnover. On the demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued to maintain just-in-need restocking strategies, strictly controlling raw material inventory risks. From the price ratio perspective, the metal price spread between refined cobalt prices and low-priced cobalt salts has narrowed significantly, and enterprises' willingness to produce refined cobalt through re-dissolution has pulled back accordingly. In the short term, refined cobalt prices are expected to move sideways, and future price rises still need effective support from cobalt salt prices. Cobalt salt ( and ): : According to SMM spot prices, spot cobalt sulphate prices stopped falling and stabilized this week. As of May 8, spot cobalt sulphate prices remained at 93,000-95,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 94,500 yuan/mt, flat compared with the April 30 quote. Supply and demand side, mainstream cobalt sulphate brand price centers remained in the range of 93,000-96,000 yuan/mt. Driven by the rebound in refined cobalt prices, some smelters and traders that previously offered discounts for shipments have slightly raised their quotes, and low-priced resources below 90,000 yuan/mt have decreased notably. On the demand side, downstream enterprises were still consuming previous inventory overall, with weak purchase willingness to enter the market, and only a few with just-in-need requirements restocked in small quantities at low prices. However, some Co3O4 enterprises have recently increased inquiry activities, and procurement sentiment showed signs of recovery. Production schedule side, ternary and LCO enterprises both saw restorative increases in May production schedules MoM. It is expected that as downstream gradually initiates restocking, cobalt sulphate prices are likely to see a phased recovery rebound. : According to SMM spot quotes, post-holiday cobalt chloride spot prices edged up 250 yuan/mt on May 8, quoted at 114,200-117,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 115,600 yuan/mt. In terms of market performance, post-holiday cobalt chloride spot market generally reported scarce inquiries. On the supply side, shipments from some top-tier players declined significantly recently, with liquidity under pressure and quotes slightly loosened; while small and medium-sized producers had already lowered quotes earlier due to capital recovery and shipment pressure, and have gradually stabilized recently, with very limited downside room for further price cuts. On the demand side, downstream Co3O4 enterprises, affected by weak demand, faced significant shipment pressure themselves, with weak purchase willingness for cobalt chloride; in contrast, cathode material and battery cell segments showed restocking willingness recently as inventory continued to be depleted. Overall, the market still lacks clear momentum for a price breakthrough. Although occasional low-price transactions occurred, constrained by enterprise performance pressure, capital conditions, and shipment volumes, they were unlikely to have a significant impact on the overall market. SMM believes that current cobalt chloride prices have limited downside room, with raw material costs providing strong bottom support. Cobalt chloride market is expected to remain stable in the near term, with substantive changes likely to wait until mid-to-late May. : According to SMM spot quotes, post-holiday Co3O4 spot prices remained stable. As of May 8, Co3O4 spot prices were maintained at 360,000-367,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 363,500 yuan/mt, stable compared to pre-holiday levels. Spot market, according to SMM, the post-holiday Co3O4 market continued the sluggish trend from before the holiday. Top-tier players slightly lowered their quotes, but as cobalt intermediate products were in a phase of tight supply and cobalt chloride prices remained firm, effective cost support was provided for Co3O4 prices. Downstream LCO material enterprises continued to purchase as needed, mainly restocking in small quantities based on orders on hand, with market inquiry activity maintained at a neutral level. Looking ahead, end-use demand performance remains the core variable determining cathode material procurement intensity. Considering that market expectations for May are generally optimistic, attention should be paid to whether demand recovery can break the prolonged stable pattern and bring phased changes. Raw material cobalt intermediate products: According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) spot prices remained stable post-holiday. As of May 8, cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) spot prices were maintained at $25.8-26.2/lb, with an average price of $26/lb. Supply and demand side, on the supply side, according to SMM, most suppliers held relatively optimistic expectations for the market outlook, with offers continuing to stay above $26/lb. On the demand side, there was no significant change. Affected by insufficient momentum for cobalt salt prices to follow the upward trend, the market maintained only small volumes of just-in-time procurement, with intended transaction prices fluctuating around $25.8/lb. Shipping side, DRC cobalt intermediate product cargoes remained stranded at South African ports and in overland transportation. In April, only a few miners completed small-batch vessel bookings, with arrivals expected from May to June. Dragged by tight shipping capacity on African routes, the remaining large-volume cargoes may be delayed until July for concentrated arrivals. Looking ahead, as downstream orders gradually materialize and restocking demand is progressively released, cobalt intermediate product prices still have room for upward recovery. News side, recently, multiple enterprises along the cobalt industry chain released their Q1 earnings reports. Tengyuan Cobalt reported that the company achieved revenue of 2.559 billion yuan in Q1 2026, up 75.13% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 531 million yuan, up 330.11% YoY. In addition, the company also released its 2025 annual report, showing total revenue of 8.34 billion yuan in 2025, up 27.47% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 11.11 yuan, up 62.11% YoY. Meanwhile, the gross margin of its main products reached 27.73%, up 5.74% YoY, and cobalt production and sales hit new historical highs. Regarding the reasons for the company's strong performance growth during the reporting period, Tengyuan Cobalt stated that first, the company operated steadily and established a diversified raw material procurement system with strong supply security capabilities. In particular, the stable supply of secondary resources or recycled raw materials effectively hedged against the impact of fluctuations in primary ore procurement, effectively enhancing supply chain resilience and providing support for performance growth. Second, as capacity from fundraising investment projects was gradually released, and benefiting from YoY increases in market prices of metals such as cobalt and copper, the company's product production, sales, and profitability improved significantly, with economies of scale becoming more evident. Third, the company continued to promote lean management reform, comprehensively implemented cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, enhanced operational efficiency through strict cost control, and continuously optimized its client structure, strengthening overall profitability. As of the end of Q1 2026, Tengyuan Cobalt had capacity of 31,500 mt in metal content of cobalt products (including 8,000 mt of refined cobalt), 10,000 mt in metal content of nickel products, 10,000 mt in metal content of manganese products, 60,000 mt of copper products, 20,000 mt of ternary cathode precursor, 10,000 mt of Co3O4, and 5,000 mt of lithium carbonate. In addition, Tengyuan Cobalt stated that the pricing of its cobalt products such as cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride is based onprices, adjusted according to discount coefficients and price fluctuations. Tengyuan Cobalt also stated that the company's core products have been widely used in traditional end-use sectors such as consumer electronics, NEVs, and aerospace, and are continuously extending into emerging technology fields empowered by AI. In particular, the company's Co3O4 and related product series are primarily used in high-end LCO systems, fully compatible with product terminals requiring high energy density and high stability battery applications. Targeting emerging technology tracks, the company is leveraging its own advantages to actively enter rapidly growing fields such as solid-state batteries, humanoid robots, eVTOL, low-altitude economy, AI computing infrastructure, and high-end energy storage. As emerging markets gradually scale up in the future, the company will rely on its advantages in raw material supply, high-purity manufacturing technology, and client resources to continuously optimize its product mix, consolidating its strengths in traditional sectors while fully benefiting from the growing material demand driven by the development of emerging technology industries. It is also worth noting that as of March 31, 2026, the company's fundraised investment project — the "Annual 30,000 mt Copper and 2,000 mt Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Smelter Project" — had passed the reviews of China's Ministry of Commerce and the Jiangxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission, and obtained the enterprise overseas investment certificate. The joint venture company (Xincheng New Energy Investment Co., Ltd.) and the project company (Hechuang New Energy Mining Simplified Joint-Stock Company) had been established. Currently, the overall project progress is in line with the planned schedule, with project design, land leveling, and main building civil works completed, and installation of main equipment currently underway. Hanrui Cobalt previously released its Q1 report, stating that the company achieved operating revenue of 1.865 billion yuan in Q1 2026, up 24.19% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm at 64.7465 million yuan, up 51.07% YoY. The performance change was mainly attributable to increased sales volume and prices of copper products as well as sales of nickel products.

After the holiday, the Co3O4 market continued the sluggish trend seen before the holiday. Top-tier enterprises slightly lowered their quoted prices, but the periodically tight supply of cobalt intermediate products and firm cobalt chloride prices provided effective cost support for Co3O4 prices. Downstream LCO material enterprises continued their purchasing as needed strategy, mainly restocking in small quantities based on orders on hand, with market inquiry activity remaining at a neutral level. Looking ahead, end-use demand performance remains the core variable determining the intensity of cathode material procurement. Given that market expectations for May are generally optimistic, attention should be paid to whether a recovery in demand can break the prolonged stable pattern and bring about periodic changes.

After the holiday, the cobalt chloride market atmosphere cooled further, with widespread feedback of scarce inquiries. Supply side, some top-tier enterprises saw significant declines in shipments recently, with liquidity under pressure and offers slightly loosened; meanwhile, small and medium-sized producers had already lowered offers earlier due to capital recovery and shipment pressure, and have gradually stabilized recently, with very limited downside room for further price cuts. Demand side, downstream Co3O4 enterprises, affected by weak demand, faced considerable shipment pressure themselves, with weak purchase willingness for cobalt chloride; in contrast, cathode material and battery cell segments showed restocking willingness recently as inventory was continuously depleted. Overall, the market still lacked clear momentum for a price breakthrough. Although occasional low-price transactions occurred, they were constrained by enterprise performance pressure, capital conditions, and shipment volumes, making it difficult to significantly impact the overall market. Current downside room for prices was limited, with raw material costs providing strong bottom support. The cobalt chloride market is expected to remain stable in the near term, with substantive changes potentially not arriving until mid-to-late May.

The cobalt chloride market sentiment this week remained largely unchanged from the previous week, with bulls and bears continuing to wrestle and the stalemate yet to be broken. Supply side, top-tier enterprises maintained firm quotations, with mainstream quotations hovering around 116,000 yuan/mt, supported by solid cost support, with some transactions concluded at around 114,000 yuan/mt. Small and medium-sized producers, under pressure from capital recovery and shipments, lowered quotations to 112,000-114,000 yuan/mt, but actual shipments were limited, generally at 2-3 truckloads. Demand side, downstream enterprises gradually depleted inventory and began considering moderate restocking at low levels, with market inquiries becoming more active and transactions recovering slightly. Overall, the market still lacked clear momentum to drive a price breakthrough. Although low prices appeared from time to time, considering factors such as enterprise performance, capital conditions, and shipment volumes, they were unlikely to significantly impact the market. Currently, downside room was very limited, with raw material costs providing strong support. The cobalt chloride market is expected to remain largely stable in the near term.

The Co3O4 market operated steadily this week, with overall trading activity remaining subdued. Top-tier enterprises slightly lowered their quoted prices, but the periodic tight supply of cobalt intermediate products and persistently firm cobalt chloride prices provided effective cost support for prices. Downstream LCO material enterprises continued their purchasing as needed strategy, mostly restocking in small quantities based on orders on hand, with market inquiry activity remaining at a moderate level. Looking ahead, end-use demand performance remains the key variable determining cathode material procurement intensity. Given that market expectations for May are generally optimistic, attention should be paid to whether demand recovery can break the prolonged stable pattern and bring about periodic changes.

SMM April 24: Most cobalt-related product prices remained stable this week, with only refined cobalt and cobalt sulphate prices continuing their gradual decline, edging down to varying degrees. However, on the raw material side, cobalt intermediate products continued to maintain a strong position, as suppliers' strong willingness to hold prices firm, combined with miners participating in market procurement, intensified the tight supply of spot cobalt intermediate products... SMM compiled the cobalt market price changes this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot quotes, spot refined cobalt prices edged down this week. After a decline of 2,000 yuan/mt on April 23, spot refined cobalt prices remained at 408,000-418,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 413,000 yuan/mt. According to SMM, futures fluctuations for refined cobalt narrowed this week, and the market operated steadily overall. From a supply-demand perspective, on the supply side, the firm pricing sentiment persisted, with mainstream smelters maintaining ex-factory prices, and traders keeping the spot-futures price spread at parity to a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt, with only a few traders offering discounts to accelerate capital recovery. On the demand side, the weak pattern continued, as downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises saw no recovery in orders, maintaining cautious procurement strategies focused on small-batch, high-frequency purchasing as needed, strictly controlling inventory risks. After refined cobalt prices stabilized at low levels, some downstream enterprises shifted to more optimistic expectations for the market outlook, with restocking willingness slightly rebounding. In the short term, weak demand continues to weigh on prices, while high raw material costs and the reverse dissolution price spread provide solid bottom support. Prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. As downstream demand gradually recovers going forward, refined cobalt prices still have upside room. Cobalt salt ( and ): : According to SMM spot quotes, spot cobalt sulphate prices maintained a fluctuating downward trend this week. As of April 24, spot cobalt sulphate prices fell to 93,700-96,400 yuan/mt, with an average price of 95,050 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from 95,350 yuan/mt on April 17, a decline of 0.32%. From a supply-demand perspective, according to SMM, on the supply side, mainstream cobalt sulphate smelters maintained quotes at 94,000-97,000 yuan/mt, supported by production costs. Some recycling enterprises and traders, under capital turnover pressure, offered concessions on shipments, lowering quotes to 92,000-93,000 yuan/mt, while some older cobalt sulphate inventory was transacted at around 90,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream enterprises saw sluggish demand, compounded by sufficient inventory levels, leading to weak overall restocking willingness, with only small volumes of low-priced resources purchased as needed. In the short term, affected by a small amount of low-priced supply from upstream and weak downstream demand, cobalt sulphate prices are likely to remain in the doldrums, with prices expected to see a corrective rebound once purchasing demand recovers. : According to SMM spot quotes, spot cobalt chloride quotes remained stable this week. As of April 24, spot cobalt chloride held steady at 114,500-116,200 yuan/mt, with an average price of 115,350 yuan/mt. According to SMM, the cobalt chloride market continued to see a tug-of-war between bulls and bears this week, with the stalemate showing no signs of a breakthrough. In terms of supply, top-tier enterprises maintained firm quotes, with mainstream prices hovering around 116,000 yuan/mt and relatively solid support at the bottom; small and medium-sized producers, under pressure to recover funds, flexibly lowered shipment prices to 114,000-115,000 yuan/mt, but actual transaction volumes remained limited. Demand side, downstream participants remained predominantly cautious and on the sidelines. Although market inquiries were relatively active, substantive transaction increments were insufficient. Dragged down by weak end-use demand, Co3O4 enterprises maintained a conservative purchasing strategy for raw material cobalt chloride, with only occasional sporadic small orders for restocking. Overall, the cobalt chloride market still lacked clear momentum to drive a price breakthrough. : According to SMM spot quotes, spot Co3O4 quotes ran steadily this week. As of April 24, spot Co3O4 quotes held at 360,000-367,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 363,500 yuan/mt. According to SMM, the overall trading activity in the spot Co3O4 market was low this week. Top-tier enterprises slightly lowered their quotes, but the periodically tight supply of cobalt intermediate products provided effective cost support for prices. Downstream LCO material enterprises continued to purchase as needed, mostly restocking in small volumes based on orders on hand, with market inquiry activity remaining at a moderate level. Looking ahead, end-use demand performance remains the key variable determining the purchasing intensity of cathode materials. Against the backdrop of overall weak demand, the Co3O4 market is expected to remain focused on holding prices stable and staying on the sidelines in the short term, with all parties operating cautiously. Regarding raw material cobalt intermediate products, according to SMM spot quotes, cobalt intermediate product prices held up well this week. As of April 24, spot cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) were quoted at $26-26.25/lb, with an average price of $26.125/lb. From a supply-demand perspective, according to SMM, suppliers on the supply side showed strong willingness to hold prices firm this week. Coupled with miners participating in market purchasing, spot tightness intensified, with some enterprises maintaining quotes above $26.0/lb. Demand side, downstream purchase willingness recovered slightly, but constrained by cobalt salt prices struggling to catch up, enterprises mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach with inquiries, with only small-volume transactions concluded in the $25.8–$25.9/lb range. It was learned that cobalt intermediate product cargoes from the DRC remained stranded at South African ports and in transit by land, 4 with only a few miners completing small-volume vessel bookings in April, expected to 5~6 arrive at port in May–June; affected by tight shipping conditions in Africa, the remaining cargoes are not expected to arrive in China in bulk until 7 July. Going forward, as downstream orders materialize and restocking demand is released, cobalt intermediate product prices still have upward momentum. On the news front, at the SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM) -hosted , SMM cobalt industry analyst Xiao Wenhao provided an outlook on the future development of the Chinese and global cobalt markets following the DRC cobalt export ban. On the domestic front, he noted that under the impact of the DRC policy, the Chinese cobalt market continued destocking, and cobalt product prices surged upward. Taking cobalt intermediate products as an example, as of March 2026, the spot price of cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) had risen to $25.85/lb, representing a 349.57% increase compared to $5.75/lb on February 25, 2025. According to SMM, since May 2025, the cobalt market began shifting into a tight supply situation, which is expected to see slight relief by June 2026. In addition, he also analyzed the supply-demand balance of the Chinese and global cobalt markets under two scenarios respectively: a pessimistic scenario — the DRC exports only the base quota of 87,000 mt + 70% exported to China, and a neutral scenario — the DRC maintains a long-term cobalt intermediate product export quota of 96,600 mt + 80% exported to China. Under the former assumption, according to SMM estimates, from 2025 to 2028, China's cobalt resources will exhibit a tight supply situation, with the Chinese market continuously facing raw material shortages. It is not until 2029–2030 that China's cobalt resource shortage is expected to ease, shifting to a tight balance. The DRC, on the other hand, shifted from a previous tight supply-demand balance to a significant oversupply in 2025, and the oversupply of its cobalt resources is expected to continue expanding in the coming years. Under the neutral scenario assumption, SMM expects that China's cobalt resources will exhibit a tight supply-demand balance in 2026, gradually shifting to a slight oversupply after 2027, though the surplus will be relatively small. The DRC's cobalt resources reached a supply-demand inflection point in 2025, and from 2025 onward are expected to exhibit a significant oversupply.

The cobalt chloride market sentiment this week remained largely unchanged from the previous week, with bulls and bears continuing to tug back and forth and the stalemate showing no signs of a breakthrough. In terms of supply, top-tier enterprises continued to hold firm on their offers, with mainstream prices hovering around 116,000 yuan/mt and relatively solid support at the bottom; small and medium-sized producers, under pressure to recover funds, flexibly lowered their shipment prices to 114,000-115,000 yuan/mt, but actual transaction volumes remained limited. Demand side, downstream participants remained predominantly cautious and on the sidelines. Although market inquiries were relatively active, substantive transaction growth was insufficient. Dragged down by weak end-use demand, Co3O4 enterprises maintained a conservative procurement strategy for raw material cobalt chloride, with only occasional small restocking orders. Overall, the market still lacked a clear catalyst to drive a price breakthrough. SMM New Energy Research Team Wang Cong 021-51666838 Ma Rui 021-51595780 Feng Disheng 021-51666714 Lv Yanlin 021-20707875 Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711

The cobalt chloride market this week continued the trend from last week, with bulls and bears remaining locked in a tug-of-war and the stalemate showing no signs of easing. Supply side, top-tier enterprises maintained a firm stance on holding prices firm, with mainstream quotations staying above 116,000 yuan/mt and price support remaining relatively solid; meanwhile, small and medium-sized enterprises, driven by capital turnover and shipments considerations, generally lowered their quotations to 114,000-115,000 yuan/mt, though actual shipments remained limited. Demand side, downstream purchasing sentiment remained conservative. Although market inquiry activity was relatively high, transactions had yet to see any substantive rebound. Affected by overall weak downstream demand, Co3O4 enterprises maintained a cautious attitude toward raw material cobalt chloride procurement, with restocking primarily consisting of small, scattered orders. Overall, the current market lacked direct drivers to push prices toward a directional breakthrough. SMM New Energy Research Team Wang Cong 021-51666838 Ma Rui 021-51595780 Feng Disheng 021-51666714 Lv Yanlin 021-20707875 Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711

This week, the overall atmosphere in the cobalt chloride market continued last week's trend, with bullish and bearish sides remaining locked in a tug-of-war and no clear signs of easing in the stalemate. Supply side, top-tier enterprises remained firm in their stance to hold prices firm, with mainstream quotations staying above 116,000 yuan/mt and price support relatively solid. Demand side, downstream buying sentiment remained cautious, and market inquiry activity showed no substantive rebound. Affected by overall weak downstream demand, Co3O4 enterprises remained increasingly cautious toward raw material procurement, with restocking mainly consisting of scattered small-lot purchases, while the actual transaction center held near 115,000 yuan/mt. Overall, the market currently lacked a direct driver to push prices toward a directional breakout, and cobalt chloride prices were expected to continue moving steadily in the short term. SMM New Energy Research Team Wang Cong 021-51666838 Ma Rui 021-51595780 Feng Disheng 021-51666714 Lv Yanlin 021-20707875 Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711