SMM May 13 News: Metal Market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally declined, with SHFE aluminum rising by 11.14%. SHFE lead increased by 0.15%, SHFE copper fell by 0.31%, SHFE zinc dropped by 0.63%, and SHFE tin declined slightly. SHFE nickel fell by 2.02%. In addition, alumina rose by 0.6%. Lithium carbonate fell by 0.85%, silicon metal declined by 1.09%, and polysilicon increased by 1.16%. The ferrous metals series mostly rose, with iron ore increasing by 1.41% and stainless steel rising by 0.43%. Rebar rose by 1.05%, and HRC increased by 0.85%. In terms of coking coal and coke: coking coal fell by 0.68%, and coke dropped by 0.31%. In the overseas metal market, as of 11:46, LME base metals generally declined. LME tin fell by 1.15%, LME lead rose by 0.1%, and LME copper, LME zinc, and LME aluminum all fell within 0.2%. LME nickel declined by 0.67%. In precious metals, as of 11:46, COMEX gold rose by 0.37%, and COMEX silver increased by 1.38%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell by 2.44%, and SHFE silver dropped by 0.1%. Citi Research lowered its gold price target for the next three months from $3,500 per ounce to $3,150 per ounce on Monday, stating that it expects gold prices to consolidate due to progress in tariff negotiations. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European Containerized Freight Index rose by 7.86%, closing at 1,493.8 points. As of 11:46 on May 13, some midday futures market movements: 》SMM Metal Spot Prices on May 13 Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 120 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average premium of 45 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 100 yuan/mt to a discount of 80 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 90 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 78,215 yuan/mt, down 125 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 78,080 yuan/mt, down 145 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot Market: Today, inventory in Guangdong declined again, hitting a recent low, primarily due to still low arrivals... 》Click for details Macro Front Domestic Aspect: [SASAC: Plan a Batch of Strategic, Foundational, and Leading Major Projects Around Key Areas and Links in Economic and Social Development] The Party Committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) held an expanded meeting on May 13. The meeting emphasized the need to implement the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, focus on current work, and spare no effort to achieve the annual goals and tasks. It also called for an objective assessment of the development achievements of state-owned assets and central state-owned enterprises during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, summarizing achievements while comprehensively identifying shortcomings and issues, to provide a solid foundation for formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan.It is necessary to conduct in-depth analysis of the situation, scientifically assess changes in the external environment, comprehensively evaluate trends in technological and industrial development, and formulate strategies and measures for the development, reform, supervision, and Party building of state-owned assets and central state-owned enterprises, enhancing the foresight, forward-looking nature, and pertinence of our work. It is essential to set scientific goals, closely adhering to the primary task of high-quality development, focusing on enhancing the "five values," and formulating ambitious goals for state-owned assets and central state-owned enterprises. We should place greater emphasis on developing new quality productive forces in line with local conditions, effectively optimizing the layout of strategic emerging industries and future-oriented industries, accelerating breakthroughs in key core technologies, and leveraging the roles of scientific and technological innovation, industrial control, and security support. It is crucial to implement major projects, focusing on key areas and links in economic and social development, and aligning with national needs and the strengths of central state-owned enterprises to plan a batch of strategic, foundational, and leading major projects, continuously strengthening the strategic support role of the state-owned economy. The People's Bank of China conducted 180 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 405 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 225 billion yuan was achieved. ► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on May 13 was 7.1991 RMB per US dollar. US dollar: As of 11:46, the US dollar index fell by 0.22% to 101.58. Federal Reserve Governor Cooker stated that the suspension of high import tariffs has reduced the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in response to an economic slowdown. The market is also awaiting the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report later in the day for new signals regarding the trajectory of the Fed's monetary policy. Current market pricing indicates that the Fed is expected to begin cutting interest rates in September, with a total reduction of 55 basis points this year, compared to expectations of a July cut last week. Macro: Today, data including China's M2 money supply annual growth rate for April, China's total social financing from the beginning of the year to April, China's new RMB loans from the beginning of the year to April, the US CPI annual growth rate for April (unadjusted), the US core CPI annual growth rate for April (unadjusted), the US energy CPI annual growth rate for April (unadjusted), the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone in May, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany in May, the ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for Australia for the week ending May 11, the UK's unemployment rate for March (ILO standard), and the UK's average weekly earnings including bonuses for the three months to March (annual growth rate) will be released. In addition, the Bank of Japan will release the summary of opinions from the April Monetary Policy Meeting, Bank of England Governor Bailey will deliver a speech, and US President Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE from May 11 to 14. Crude oil: As of 11:46, crude oil futures dropped slightly, with US crude oil down 0.66% and Brent crude oil down 0.12%. International oil prices pulled back from the two-week high reached the previous day, after substantial progress was made in the high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US, sparking market optimism that the trade conflict would end. Preliminary survey results showed that US crude oil and gasoline inventories likely fell last week, while distillate fuel oil inventories were expected to increase. Before the release of weekly inventory data, the average forecast of five surveyed institutions was that US crude oil inventories were expected to fall by approximately 2 million barrels in the week ending May 9. The weekly inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) will be released at 4:30 on Wednesday, and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish its weekly crude oil inventory report at 22:30 on Wednesday. (Webstock Inc.) Spot market overview: ► Despite falling inventories, premiums continue to decline; large price spread between futures contracts is the main reason [SMM spot copper in South China] ► Due to weak demand, suppliers continue to lower prices; spot premiums/discounts weaken again [SMM spot copper in North China] ► Steel mill tenders continue; manganese plant prices remain firm [SMM daily review of EMM] Updates on the midday review of other metal spot markets will be available later. Please refresh to view.

On Monday, April 7, Citi Research lowered its 0-3 month Brent crude oil price forecast to $60/barrel, and reduced its 0-3 month copper and aluminum price forecasts to $8,000/mt and $2,200/mt, respectively. Citi analysts stated in a report: "These targets are entirely achievable within the next week, and if not, they are highly likely to be achieved within the next three months." The bank noted in the report that the actual impact of tariff imposition should be doubly bearish, as pre-purchasing and stockpiling of goods and commodities will completely reverse after the tightening of the commodity market in recent months. Citi analysts said in a report: "We believe any rebound triggered by trade agreement headlines or the delayed implementation of tariffs on April 9 this week will provide an opportunity to sell on strength." They added: "US natural gas and gold should outperform in the short term." To learn more about the dynamics of the copper industry chain, you are welcome to attend the CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Conference and Copper Industry Expo, hosted by SMM, which will be grandly held in Nanchang, Jiangxi from April 22-25, 2025. ~ Over 3,000 industry elites, representatives from upstream and downstream enterprises of the copper industry chain, government officials, industry associations, third-party equipment, logistics and warehousing, as well as experts from universities and research institutions will gather together. The conference covers mines, smelting, copper processing, trade, recycling, and end-use applications, encompassing the entire copper industry chain. At the event, more than 100 exhibitors will showcase the latest copper processing and smelting equipment, high-quality raw material suppliers, and new-type copper-based materials, highlighting the innovation and vitality of the copper industry. The conference features a variety of exciting activities: the main forum focuses on global copper market trends, raw material supply, policy impact analysis, and market direction interpretation. Sub-forums delve into industry hot topics such as electrical power transmission and distribution, secondary copper, copper-based new materials, hardware and plumbing, and ESS. During the conference, a two-day field trip will visit 12 representative enterprises with a cumulative capacity of 1 million mt in the copper industry. Sharing cutting-edge technologies and valuable experiences will help upgrade the copper industry chain and promote high-quality industry development. The CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Conference and Copper Industry Expo will help you grasp industry trends, expand your network, and seek business opportunities! SMM cordially invites you to gather in Nanchang, Jiangxi from April 22-25, to unite in the new era and jointly plan for new development!

On April 5 (Saturday), Citi Research stated that the short-term outlook for copper prices in markets outside the US is bearish, with the average price in Q2 2025 expected to be $8,500 per mt, but price risks remain significantly skewed to the downside. Citi predicts that spot copper consumption and manufacturing sentiment will be impacted in Q2 2025 due to the US's announcement of so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on all trading partners in early April. To learn more about the dynamics of the copper industry chain, you are welcome to attend the CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Conference and Copper Industry Expo, hosted by SMM, which will be grandly held in Nanchang, Jiangxi from April 22-25, 2025. CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Conference and Copper Industry Expo ~ Over 3,000 industry elites, representatives from upstream and downstream enterprises of the copper industry chain, government officials, industry associations, third-party equipment, logistics and warehousing, as well as experts from universities and research institutions will gather together. The conference covers mines, smelting, copper processing, trade, recycling, and end-use applications, encompassing the entire copper industry chain. At the conference, more than 100 exhibitors will showcase the latest copper processing and smelting equipment, high-quality raw material suppliers, and new-type copper-based materials, highlighting the innovation and vitality of the copper industry. The conference features a variety of exciting activities: the main forum focuses on global copper market trends, raw material supply, policy impact analysis, and market direction interpretation. Sub-forums delve into industry hot topics in areas such as electrical power transmission and distribution, secondary copper, copper-based new materials, hardware and plumbing, and ESS. During the conference, a two-day field trip will visit 12 representative enterprises in the copper industry with a cumulative capacity of 1 million mt. Share cutting-edge technologies and valuable experiences to help upgrade the copper industry chain and promote high-quality industry development. CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Conference and Copper Industry Expo Helps you grasp the industry pulse, expand your network, and seek business opportunities! SMM cordially invites you to gather in Nanchang, Jiangxi from April 22-25, to unite in the new era and jointly plan for new development!

On Thursday, April 3, Citi Research lowered its forecast for base metal prices in 2025, citing the tariffs announced by the Trump administration and the impending tariffs that will pose significant headwinds to demand.

On March 31, Zijin Mining Group announced that its subsidiary, China Gold Group Inner Mongolia Mining Co., Ltd., currently has Phase I and Phase II tailings ponds with a total designed capacity of 276.77 million m³ (Phase I: 51.58 million m³, Phase II: 225.19 million m³) and a designed crest elevation of 810 meters. As of now, the crest elevations of both Phase I and Phase II tailings ponds have reached the final designed elevation of 810 meters. Due to delays in land acquisition and preliminary procedures for the proposed Phase III tailings pond project, which cannot be constructed in the short term, it is necessary to increase the height and capacity of the existing tailings ponds to ensure uninterrupted production at Inner Mongolia Mining. The total investment for the project is 29.4872 billion yuan, including fixed asset investment of 16.7212 billion yuan, comprising engineering costs of 13.881185 billion yuan and other expenses of 2.840015 billion yuan (including land acquisition costs of 942.709 million yuan). The production period investment totals 12.766 billion yuan, funded by the company itself. The construction period is 5 months. Zijin Mining stated in the announcement that the company held the 28th meeting of the 7th Board of Directors on March 31, 2025, with all 8 directors in attendance. The meeting approved the proposal for the heightening and capacity expansion project of the Wunugetushan Copper-Molybdenum Mine tailings pond in Inner Mongolia Mining. The project aims to increase the tailings pond's elevation to 840 meters, raising it by 30 meters and adding a total capacity of approximately 78.73 million m³ (effective capacity: 70.86 million m³). The maximum dam height will be 124 meters (east main dam), and the total capacity of the Phase II tailings pond after expansion will be 303.92 million m³. The tailings pond will be classified as a second-class facility and will serve the mine for 3.5 years. The expanded tailings pond will be enclosed by dams on the east, south, west, and north sides, forming a flat-type tailings pond. All side dams will be raised to the final crest elevation of 840 meters using the centerline waste rock embankment method. New drainage facilities will adopt the "waste rock dock + spillway" form. Regarding the impact of the investment on the listed company, Zijin Mining stated that the project has a construction period of 5 months and a service period of 3.5 years. Fixed asset depreciation will be calculated using the straight-line method, with a depreciation period of 4 years for surface buildings and structures and 4 years for machinery and equipment. The design and construction investment will form intangible assets and other assets with an amortization period of 4 years. The estimated total annual cost at full production is 790.37 million yuan, including annual depreciation of 372.84 million yuan, annual amortization of 45.19 million yuan, and annual depreciation for maintenance operations of 372.34 million yuan. The unit cost per ton of tailings is 26.99 yuan/mt. In the stock market, Zijin Mining experienced a decline on April 1 after three consecutive days of gains, closing down 1.42% at 13.87 yuan per share. An investor asked on the investor interaction platform about the copper ore grade of the company's copper mines and why the gross margin is low, inquiring if there is room for improvement in processes, equipment, or workflows. Zijin Mining responded on March 25 that the copper ore grade is disclosed in the annual report under "Basic Information of Captive Mines." In 2023, the gross margin of the company's copper mines was 57%. Another investor asked about the Shaling Gold Mine project, inquiring when it will commence production in 2025, the expected gold production this year, and the annual gold production at full capacity. Zijin Mining responded on March 12 that the Shaling Gold Mine will organize construction works reasonably in 2025, actively conduct mining tests, continuously optimize engineering design, accelerate shaft equipment installation, closely monitor equipment procurement, and focus on surface construction and water inflow management. According to the production design, the Shaling Gold Mine will produce approximately 10 mt of gold annually at full capacity. As Zijin Mining has not yet released its full-year 2024 results, its Q3 2024 report showed that the company achieved revenue of 46.045 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 1.08% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.643 billion yuan, up 27.55% YoY, and adjusted net profit of 2.618 billion yuan, up 24.84% YoY. Zijin Mining attributed the increase in adjusted net profit to rising gold and copper prices. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company produced 13,046.29 kg of gold and 6.21 mt of copper. Recently, gold prices have repeatedly hit record highs, benefiting many gold mining stocks. It is reported that the surge in gold prices has driven South African mining stocks to their best monthly performance on record, shielding the country's benchmark index from global market volatility. The South African Mining Index rose 33% in March, the largest monthly increase on record. (As of 15:14 on April 1, COMEX gold and SHFE gold price trends) Many institutions remain optimistic about the future performance of gold prices. CITIC Securities' research report noted that recent record highs in gold prices were driven by overseas recession trading and tariff panic trading. Considering factors such as inflation, growth, tariffs, and geopolitics, the current gold rally is far from over. From Q2 to mid-year, overseas markets may continue to see stagflation trading as a main theme, benefiting gold, while the impact of tariffs and geopolitical conflicts on gold is not yet over. Before uncertainty accumulates and is released, these factors will continue to drive gold. From a capital perspective, the influence of gold bulls on the current trend of gold has reached a historical high, but trading volume and enthusiasm have not yet reached the "most crowded" range, leaving room for further position increases. Based on current fundamental and capital data, we expect the gold rally may continue this year. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast from $3,100/oz to $3,300/oz, with a forecast range of $3,250-$3,520/oz. Medium-term gold price risks remain skewed to the upside, and in a tail-risk scenario, gold prices could exceed $4,200/oz by the end of 2025. Large Asian central bank buyers may continue to rapidly purchase gold over the next 3 to 6 years to reach their estimated potential gold reserve target range. Citi Research expects ETF and other physical investments to drive gold prices to $3,200/oz within the next three months. However, some analysts are pessimistic. Morningstar analyst Jon Mills warned that gold prices could fall to $1,820/oz over the next five years, a 38% drop from current levels, erasing gains from the past year. Mills attributed the downward pressure on gold prices to three main reasons: increased market supply, waning central bank gold purchases, and slowing demand. For more macro and fundamental news affecting precious metals, please join the 2025 SMM (6th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference.

【SMM Flash: Gold Price Breaks Through $3,100 to Hit New High, Precious Metals Futures and Stocks Surge, Silver Price Remains High with Only Essential Buying】As the date for the US to implement reciprocal tariffs on April 2 approaches, market concerns over global trade conflicts triggered by the US tariff plan have reignited, driving up safe-haven sentiment and boosting the performance of precious metals! This year, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and gold purchases by multiple central banks have all been significant factors driving gold prices to new historical highs. As of around 13:10 on March 28, COMEX gold rose 0.74% to $3,113.7 per ounce, hitting a new intraday high of $3,117.5 per ounce, with its year-to-date gain now exceeding 17%; COMEX silver rose 0.53% to $35.27 per ounce; SHFE gold rose 1.75% to 721.28 yuan per gram, reaching a new intraday high of 721.76 yuan per gram; SHFE silver rose 1.54% to 8,486 yuan/kg. As of around 13:59 on March 28, silver T+D rose 1.45% to 8,459 yuan/kg.

【SMM Flash: Gold Price Surpasses $3,100 to Hit New High, Precious Metals Futures and Stocks Rally, Silver Price Remains High with Only Essential Buying】As the US is set to implement reciprocal tariffs on April 2, market concerns over global trade conflicts triggered by the US tariff plan have intensified, driving up safe-haven sentiment and boosting the performance of precious metals! Since the beginning of this year, expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and gold purchases by multiple central banks have all been significant factors pushing gold prices to new historical highs. As of around 13:10 on March 28, COMEX gold hit a new record high of $3,117.5 per ounce.

On Thursday, March 27, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) pulled back after the US announced a 25% tariff on imported vehicles, which could potentially curb metal demand. At 17:00 London time (01:00 Beijing time on March 28), three-month copper closed down $80.5, or 0.81%, at $9,846.5 per mt, after hitting a near 10-month high in the previous session. Global stock markets fell, with auto stocks particularly hard hit, following the US announcement of auto tariffs late Wednesday. WisdomTree commodity strategist Nitesh Shah said, "This does seem likely to hurt demand for cars and, in turn, all the metals used in cars. So, today's copper prices and other base metal prices have been hurt." Expectations of US tariffs on copper led investors to bid up copper prices, especially on the US Comex exchange. Year-to-date, LME copper has risen 12%, while Comex copper prices have surged 30%. US Comex copper fell 2.4% to $5.12 per pound on Wednesday after hitting a record high, with the premium of Comex copper over LME copper pulling back to $1,437 per mt, or nearly 15%. ANZ commodity strategist Soni Kumari said, "Once the tariff issue becomes clear, this will fade as US demand weakens, putting pressure on prices." Citi Research predicts that the US will impose a 25% import tariff on copper in Q2 this year, and the bank has lowered its three-month price forecast from $10,000 to $9,500 per mt. The weakening of the US dollar index helped mitigate the decline in copper prices, as a weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for buyers using other currencies. Tin was the best-performing metal on the LME, rising 0.57% to $35,270 per mt. The International Tin Association said on Thursday that about 16% of global tin ore supply is currently offline.

According to SMM, Citi Research stated in a report that it has revised its three-month forecast for copper prices from $10,000/mt to $9,500/mt. As reported by China News Service, US President Trump signed an executive order at the White House on the 26th, imposing a 25% tariff on automobiles and parts imported into the US. The executive order stipulates that the tariff on imported vehicles will take effect on April 2, while the tariff on auto parts must be implemented no later than May 3, 2025.

Citi Lowers Three-Month Copper Price Forecast to $9,500/mt. On Thursday, March 27, Citi Research stated in a report that it has revised its three-month copper price forecast from $10,000/mt to $9,500/mt. Citi added, "We still expect the average copper price in H2 2025 to be $8,800/mt, due to a widespread decline in physical demand caused by the US implementing broader import tariff increases and facing obstacles in economic growth.