Recent Middle East conflicts have disrupted the region's booming energy storage market, a major destination for Chinese exports. To assess the real impact on Chinese supply chains and project deliveries, we must analyze baseline demand amidst these geopolitical uncertainties.

According to foreign media reports, the latest data from automotive market consulting firm Rho Motion shows that global sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) reached 1.5 million units in April, up 29% YoY. Despite trade tensions, the Chinese and European markets maintained steady growth, while the North American market saw its first decline since September last year. Among them, EV sales in the Chinese market increased by 32% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching 900,000 units. As part of an expanded consumer trade-in program in January, China extended its auto trade-in subsidy policy until 2025, aiming to avoid a decline in EV sales and boost economic growth. Charles Lester, Data Manager at Rho Motion, stated that while Chinese EV automakers continue to expand domestic sales of EV models, they are also actively expanding their overseas market presence in the PHEV segment. Lester also noted, "Since the beginning of this year, PHEV sales in global regions outside of China, North America, and Europe have nearly doubled, with Chinese exports contributing the majority of the increase." In the European market, new vehicle registrations for BEVs and PHEVs increased by 35% YoY, with sales reaching 300,000 units. The main reasons for Europe's growth are that traditional European automakers are accelerating their electrification transformation to meet EU carbon emission standards, and BEV model sales have surpassed those of Tesla. Regarding Tesla, Lester said that its market share continued to decline before the Model Y received a product refresh. In North America, EV sales fell by 5.6% YoY to 100,000 units. Global automakers face a 25% import tariff in the US, the world's second-largest automotive market, leading many manufacturers to withdraw their 2025 performance outlooks. Meanwhile, the Trump administration's stance on emission standards and uncertainty surrounding tariff policies have also hindered the growth of the North American EV market. Lester stated that the trade agreements reached by Trump with the UK and China this month have had a minimal impact on EV sales, but they are a positive signal for the industry ahead of potential trade negotiations with South Korea, Japan, and the EU. The global EV industry is currently at a critical turning point, with governments worldwide introducing policies to encourage the purchase of EVs. However, trade tensions and a slowdown in automotive market growth may signal factory closures and layoffs.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian hosted a regular press conference on May 13. A reporter from Agence France-Presse asked whether the spokesperson could provide detailed information on the next phase of China-US economic and trade talks, and whether there were plans to discuss the 20% special tariff imposed by the US on Chinese exports on the grounds of fentanyl. Lin Jian stated that regarding the high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US, the competent Chinese authorities had already released information. On the issue of fentanyl, China had repeatedly made it clear that fentanyl was a US issue, not a Chinese one, and that the responsibility lay with the US itself. The US had ignored China's goodwill and unreasonably imposed fentanyl tariffs on China, which had severely impacted China-US dialogue and cooperation in the field of drug control and also seriously harmed China's interests. "If the US truly wants to cooperate with China, it should stop smearing and shifting blame onto China and engage in dialogue with China in an equal, respectful, and mutually beneficial manner," Lin Jian said.

The ferrous metals series rebounded slightly this week. On the news front, at the beginning of the week, the PBOC kept the one-year and five-year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively. The Korea Customs Service stated on Monday that an increasing number of companies were attempting to disguise foreign products as Korean exports, with most of these products originating from China, to evade the comprehensive tariffs imposed by US President Trump. The Korea Customs Service has established a special task force to prevent illegal export activities. US President Trump delivered a public speech on Tuesday, April 22, acknowledging that the current tariffs on Chinese exports to the US were excessively high and anticipated a significant reduction in rates. This marked a softening of Trump's stance on his signature tariff policy, alleviating market pessimism over the tariff war...

【SMM HRC Daily Review】Key Meeting Held, HRC Prices Rose First Then Fell During the Day Today, HRC futures prices rose first then fell, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,204, down 0.31%. This week, HRC prices fluctuated, and the overall market trading situation improved WoW, with HRC inventory in mainstream cities continuing to decline. Looking ahead, on the macro front, the Politburo meeting emphasized the need to accelerate the implementation of more proactive and effective macro policies, making full use of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. The issuance and use of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be expedited. On April 22, US President Trump publicly acknowledged that the current tariffs on Chinese exports to the US are too high, and the tax rate is expected to be significantly reduced, marking a softening of Trump's stance on tariff policy. Cost side, iron ore prices are still expected to remain strong before the holiday, while the increase in coke prices has temporarily fallen through, strengthening the cost support for HRC. Fundamental-wise, downstream end-users may continue to restock before the holiday, and HRC inventory will continue to decline. In summary, the fundamental imbalance of HRC is relatively small, and demand resilience is strong. The most-traded HRC futures contract is expected to operate in the range of 3,170-3,250 next week.

According to SMM's imported ore cost and profit table, the profit of imported ore slightly increased. US President Trump delivered a speech in public on Tuesday (April 22), acknowledging that the current tariffs on Chinese exports to the US are too high and are expected to be significantly reduced. This marks a softening of Trump's stance on his signature tariff policy. Market sentiment was relatively optimistic, driving a significant rise in the futures market. Additionally, according to an SMM survey, on April 23, the operating rate of blast furnaces in 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM was 88.58%, up 0.8 percentage points MoM. The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces was 90.49%, up 0.66 percentage points MoM. The daily average pig iron production of the sample steel mills was 2.4415 million mt, up 16,700 mt MoM. Under the combined influence of macro and fundamental factors, it is expected that ore prices will continue to hold up well in the short term, and the profit of imported ore is still expected to have some room for increase in the short term.

【SMM HRC Daily Review】Tariff Policy Changes Again?! HRC Futures and Spot Prices Strengthened Intraday Today, HRC futures prices fluctuated and strengthened, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,233, up 1.41%. In the spot market, rising quotations improved the trading atmosphere. On the news front, US President Trump publicly acknowledged on Tuesday (April 22) that the current tariffs on Chinese exports to the US are too high, and he expects a significant reduction in rates. This marks a softening of Trump's stance on his signature tariff policy. Additionally, the destocking of the five major materials is expected to continue this week, with a noticeable improvement in market sentiment. In the short term, the probability of domestic key meetings releasing policies beyond expectations is low, and attention should be paid to the impact of changes in US tariff policies. On the fundamental side, driven by demand from some downstream industries and pre-export activities, HRC demand remains resilient, and short-term HRC prices are expected to fluctuate between 3,160 and 3,300.

【SMM HRC Daily Review】Tariff Policy Changes Again?! HRC Futures and Spot Prices Strengthened Intraday HRC futures prices fluctuated and strengthened today, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,233, up 1.41%. In the spot market, rising quotations improved the trading atmosphere. On the news front, US President Trump acknowledged on Tuesday (April 22) that the current tariffs on Chinese exports to the US are too high and are expected to be significantly reduced. This marks a softening of Trump's stance on his signature tariff policy. Additionally, the destocking of the five major materials is expected to continue this week, with a noticeable improvement in market sentiment. In the short term, the probability of domestic important meetings releasing policies beyond expectations is low, and attention should be paid to the impact of changes in US tariff policies. On the fundamental side, driven by demand from some downstream industries and pre-export rush, HRC demand remains resilient, and HRC prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 3,160-3,300 in the short term.

Today, iron ore futures surged significantly, with the most-traded contract I2509 closing at 727.5, up 2.11% for the day. Traders were active in selling, while steel mills mainly purchased as needed. The market trading atmosphere was moderate. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction prices for PB fines were around 775 yuan/mt, up 3-5 yuan/mt from yesterday. In Tangshan, the transaction prices for PB fines were around 775-780 yuan/mt, down 2-5 yuan/mt from yesterday. US President Trump acknowledged on Tuesday (April 22) in a public speech that the current tariffs on Chinese exports to the US are too high and are expected to be significantly reduced. This marks a softening of Trump's stance on his signature tariff policy. Market sentiment was optimistic, driving a significant rise in the futures market. Additionally, according to an SMM survey, on April 23, the blast furnace operating rate of 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM was 88.58%, up 0.8 percentage points MoM. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.49%, up 0.66 percentage points MoM. The daily average pig iron production of the sampled steel mills was 2.4415 million mt, up 16,700 mt MoM. Under the combined influence of macro and fundamental factors, ore prices are expected to hold up well in the short term. 》Order to view SMM metal spot historical prices

The ferrous metals series remained in the doldrums this week. On the news front, the US-China tariff war continued to escalate, with the cumulative tariffs on certain Chinese exports to the US reaching 245%. Domestically, data from the central bank showed that the preliminary statistics indicated the outstanding social financing scale reached 4,229.6 trillion yuan at the end of March 2025, up 8.4% YoY, hitting a high level over the past year. In Q1, China's cumulative social financing scale increment totaled 1.518 trillion yuan, 237 billion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans in China increased by 978 billion yuan, with the credit structure showing notable highlights. According to the preliminary calculation by the National Bureau of Statistics on April 16, China's GDP grew 5.4% YoY in Q1, marking a "good start" for the Chinese economy...