[SMM Analysis]Analysis of Import and Export Data for Unwrought Aluminum Alloy, January-February 2026

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 12,052.46 mt of copper enamelled wire in January 2026, down 1.19% YoY; exports were 10,239.85 mt in February, up 39.64% YoY; cumulative exports in January-February 2026 reached 22,292.31 mt, up 14.14% YoY on a cumulative basis. (HS code 85441100)

Middle East tensions have sparked a massive steel trade "mismatch." Iran's blocked exports created a 2.3-million-ton billet vacuum in Southeast Asia, while the Red Sea crisis stalled China's flat steel shipments to the Gulf. Consequently, China and India are rapidly absorbing SEA's diverted billet orders. SMM projects that blocked flat steel returning to China's domestic market, combined with surging overseas billet demand, will accelerate the narrowing of the domestic HRC-rebar spread.

According to the latest release from the General Administration of Customs, SMM statistics showed that China’s SiMn exports were 2,539.52 mt in January 2026, down 50.55% MoM and down 31.84% YoY. China’s SiMn imports were 0 mt in January 2026, down 100% MoM and down 100% YoY. By import and export regional structure, SiMn exports were mainly destined for Indonesia.

It is worth noting that the overall overseas ternary cathode demand outlook for 2026 remains subdued. The U.S. market has been sluggish since the fourth quarter of last year, prompting many overseas manufacturers to place their hopes on the European market.

According to customs data, China’s exports of bismuth trioxide in January 2026 were 677.56 mt, versus 570.97 mt in December 2025, showing a clear MoM increase. Market participants said that, judging from the overall changes in exports, China’s bismuth oxide exports had trended upward in almost every month since September 2025, indicating that bismuth oxide enterprises still maintained strong export momentum and that demand outside China was also increasing significantly.

From January to February 2026, China's air conditioner production reached 40.118 million units, up 0.7% YoY. From January to February, national refrigerator production reached 16.643 million units, up 6.5% YoY. From January to February, national washing machine production reached 18.579 million units, down 0.8% YoY. From January to February, national color TV production reached 24.678 million units, up 2.3% YoY. In February 2026, China exported 6.84 million air conditioners, up 1.2% YoY; cumulative exports from January to February totaled 13.15 million units, down 6.5% YoY. Refrigerator exports reached 6.93 million units in February, up 26.6% YoY; cumulative exports from January to February totaled 14.91 million units, up 18.6% YoY. Washing machine exports reached 2.7 million units in February, up 18.1% YoY; cumulative exports from January to February totaled 6.1 million units, up 11.8% YoY. LCD TV exports reached 8.53 million units in February, up 34.4% YoY; cumulative exports from January to February totaled 17.69 million units, up 17.2% YoY.

Based on China’s 2025 aluminum wire and cable export data to the Middle East, Saudi Arabia was the largest export destination in the region, with annual exports of 9,426.752 mt, accounting for 31.88 of the Middle East total

According to customs data, China’s bismuth trioxide exports were 753.74 mt in February 2026, versus 677.56 mt in January 2026, continuing to increase MoM. Looking at the overall change in exports, since September 2025, China’s bismuth oxide exports had risen almost every month, indicating that bismuth oxide enterprises still had strong export willingness and demand outside China was also increasing significantly. Market participants believed that although February was affected by the relatively long Chinese New Year holiday, exports still continued to rise, so there was a strong likelihood that China’s bismuth trioxide exports would continue to increase in March.

[Weekly Operating Rates in the Aluminum Processing Industry: China's Aluminum Processing Sector Sees Modest Growth Amid Peak Season Demand] This week, the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China edged up 1 percentage point WoW to 62.9%.