China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong in January rose by 68.7% from December, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed on Friday.

Feb 25 (Reuters) - JP Morgan raised its long-term forecast for gold prices to $4,500 an ounce on Wednesday while keeping its 2026 year-end forecast at $6,300.

Hong Kong is accelerating its drive to become a global gold trading hub, in a move that supports China’s broader ambition to strengthen its influence over international bullion markets amid a shifting geopolitical landscape and record-high prices.

On February 24, 2026, China's Ministry of Commerce issued Announcement No. 12 of 2026, adding 20 Japanese entities, including Subaru Corporation, to the export control "watch list" on the grounds of "inability to verify the end-users and end-uses of dual-use items." This move marks the first time since January 2026 that China has explicitly implemented such list-based management measures targeting Japanese enterprises, signaling a shift toward more precise, systematic, and in-depth development of export controls in the fields of critical minerals and high-tech materials. This article will conduct an in-depth analysis of the core backgrounds of these 20 enterprises, reveal their deep-seated connections with supply chains of critical materials such as rare earths, and explore the potential impact of this measure on the future global industrial landscape.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,965/mt, fluctuating downward during the Asian session; it dipped to $1,948.5/mt upon entering the European session, but then rose due to a weakening US dollar index, touching a high of $1,976.5/mt before finally settling at $1,974.5/mt. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,665 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,560 yuan/mt early in the session, then rebounded as bears reduced positions, reaching a high of 16,680 yuan/mt before finally settling at 16,665 yuan/mt, up 0.48%, forming a doji star. On the macro front: As markets awaited a series of US economic data, a weaker US dollar made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to overseas buyers; spot gold extended gains. The White House's Hassett predicted worsening employment: AI boosts productivity, reduces labor demand. Alphabet planned to raise about $15 billion by issuing US dollar bonds. China's Ministry of Commerce held a symposium with automakers: Multiple measures to promote the expansion and quality improvement of auto consumption. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing. Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security provided administrative guidance on employment to leading platform companies and courier firms. Three departments including the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on tax incentives for re-exported cross-border e-commerce goods. : SHFE lead stopped falling and stabilized, but as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, logistics vehicles halted in some regions, leading to reduced shipments and quotations from suppliers. Only some cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In the secondary lead sector, more smelters were on holiday and reluctant to sell at low prices, with most enterprises suspending quotations; a few secondary refined lead offers were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises generally entered the year-end wrap-up phase, with minimal inquiries, resulting in thin trading in the spot market. Inventory: On February 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 100 mt to 232,750 mt. As of February 9, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions rose to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: With previously in-transit lead ingots by rail concentratedly arriving at warehouses, social inventory of lead ingots increased significantly, mainly reflected in Jiangsu and Zhejiang region warehouses. Last week, lead prices fell, prompting lead-acid battery enterprises to conduct relatively concentrated stockpiling of lead ingots, leading to a noticeable decline in lead smelters' in-factory inventory. This week being the last before the Chinese New Year, the final batch of lead-acid battery enterprises will enter the holiday state, further weakening lead consumption. Meanwhile, with the start of the Spring Festival travel season, migrant workers have returned to their hometowns, and the number of vehicles in operation has gradually decreased. Currently, some regions no longer support road transportation. It is expected that the growth momentum of social inventory for lead ingots will slow down, and the inventory buildup of lead ingots is anticipated to be more reflected in the smelters' plant inventories. Overall, lead prices are in the doldrums ahead of the holiday. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

【SMM Scrap Aluminium Market Analysis】Southeast Asia's Secondary Aluminum Industry Trapped in "Margin Squeeze": Raw Material Surge Forces ADC12 Plant Cuts, Industry May Enter "Lunar New Year Mode" Early February 2026 marked a period of unprecedented regulatory volatility for the global secondary aluminum and scrap markets. Driven by a confluence of tariff upheavals, aggressive decarbonization mandates, and stringent environmental crackdowns, the traditional flow of aluminum scrap is being fundamentally redrawn. As the United States implements sweeping new import surcharges, the European Union weighs restrictive export measures, and Southeast Asian hubs like Malaysia tighten their borders against contaminated materials, market participants are facing mounting compliance costs and disrupted arbitrage windows. This review examines the key policy shifts that defined the ex-China aluminum recycling sector this month and their immediate implications for global trade flows. The United States: How the 10% Surcharge Disrupts Secondary Aluminum Following the United States Supreme Court’s ruling, which invalidated Trump’s IEEPA tariffs on February 20, 2026, many trade goods found themselves navigating a complicated and chaotic new regulatory landscape. Within hours of the ruling, President Trump pivoted to Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, levying a 10% blanket global import surcharge that went into effect on February 24, replacing the former country-based tariffs. There have also been threats made by President Trump to raise this surcharge to the statutory maximum of 15%, which could further disrupt global trade and U.S. imports. Even though most primary aluminum products will not see a huge change due to already being burdened by the 50% Section 232 tariffs, the secondary aluminum market, which formerly enjoyed a 0% tariff under Section 232, might now be caught in the newest 10% blanket import surcharge. The US Geological Survey’s Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, published in February 2026, estimated an increase in imported scrap into the US in 2025, reaching roughly 890,000 metric tons, which is approximately a 27% increase compared to 2024. Even though scrap imports only make up roughly 20% of the US’s total scrap consumption, a blanket import surcharge will likely affect a significant portion of total scrap imports for the active period of the Section 122 policy. This is especially true as the policy remains highly volatile and faces the risk of being increased or challenged in the near future. Europe: The "Scrap Leakage" Debate and Impending Export Controls The EU aluminum recycling sector is also on edge following the closure of the EU’s public consultation in late January. Currently, trade measures are widely expected to be unveiled and launched during Spring 2026, aimed at curbing what the EU terms "aluminum scrap leakage." European Aluminum, as one of the biggest supporters of trade measures to control scrap leakage, cites outflows exceeding 1.3 million tons annually that could instead be utilized domestically to meet decarbonization and net-zero targets. In February, the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) released statements opposing these trade measures, stating that "the imposition of export restrictions or trade barriers is fundamentally unnecessary and risks producing significant unintended consequences for the entire value chain." BIR also explained how its own monitoring fails to identify scrap leakage issues, noting that the EU currently has insufficient domestic smelting capacity to absorb the extra scrap that is being exported out of Europe. In the same statement, BIR warned of a probable reduction in domestic aluminum scrap prices and a decline in the overall quality of waste management systems. Similarly, in 2025, the European Recycling Industries' Confederation (EuRIC) published stark warnings against the possible restriction of aluminum scrap exports. In a scenario where all grades of aluminum scrap are restricted from being exported, or if exports are hit with a significant surcharge, the Asian market, especially China, India, and Southeast Asia, all of which are large importers of EU scrap would be heavily impacted. Supply would see significant decreases, and prices outside Europe might climb to new highs as markets adjust to fill the gap, while secondary prices within the EU could drop to new lows due to localized oversupply. Malaysia: The E-Waste Crackdown and Stringent SIRIM Enforcement Following the success of "Ops Metal" in 2025, Malaysia has seen a massive volume of illegal scrap imports seized, amounting to a total value of RM 7 billion. In response to the influx of illegal scrap imports frequently mixed with electronic waste, the Malaysian government implemented an absolute e-waste import ban effective February 4, 2026, in order to curb these environmental violations. While aluminum scrap is still legally allowed to be imported into Malaysia, albeit under strict SIRIM purity requirements, the absolute e-waste ban will inevitably affect certain secondary grades. Notably, Zorba imports will likely see significant increases in transit and processing times, as customs officials are now far more likely to detain such cargoes for exhaustive inspections due to the high probability of e-waste contamination. In the broader picture, the volume of aluminum scrap legally entering Malaysia will likely decrease. Coupled with escalating processing delays at customs, this friction increases the probability that businesses will actively divert their aluminum scrap trade elsewhere in Southeast Asia, such as to Thailand. Conclusion Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2026, the secondary aluminum market will likely remain in a state of flux as these regional policies take full effect. The era of frictionless global scrap trade is rapidly giving way to a localized, highly regulated environment. For remelters and traders, navigating this landscape will require extreme supply chain agility and a hyper-focus on material compliance. As European supply risks being politically landlocked, U.S. raw material imports become suddenly more expensive, and Southeast Asian quality barriers rise, we expect to see continued volatility in regional premiums and a widening decoupling of traditional scrap-to-LME pricing mechanisms in certain regions. Adapting to this fragmented reality will be the defining challenge for the industry in the months to come.

[TCs Rose in Some Regions in March, Focus on Subsequent Negotiation Results]: On a weekly basis, the SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average increased by 50 yuan/mt in metal content from the pre-holiday level to 1,550 yuan/mt in metal content, while the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by $0.6/dmt from the pre-holiday level to $23.75/dmt...

On Feb 24, 2026, China placed 20 Japanese firms, including Subaru, on an export control watchlist for unverifiable end-use of dual-use items. This signals tighter controls on critical minerals and tech amid geopolitical and supply chain shifts. The analysis examines the firms' supply chain roles and the long-term industrial implications.

On February 24, Guotai Environmental Protection held its 15th meeting of the 4th Board of Directors, reviewing and approving the "Proposal on Amending the Business Scope, Revising the , and Handling Industrial and Commercial Registration Changes." This adjustment not only represents a simple business expansion but also marks a critical transformation of this traditional environmental protection enterprise into the field of new energy circular economy—adding businesses such as lithium-ion battery recycling, PV equipment leasing, and battery manufacturing, officially entering the rapidly growing closed-loop of the new energy industry chain. Guotai Environmental Protection's strategic adjustment is not accidental. In recent years, China's new energy vehicle industry has maintained rapid growth. Data shows that in 2025, China's NEV production and sales both achieved nearly 30% growth, with NEVs accounting for 47.9% of new vehicle sales. As early power batteries gradually enter their retirement phase, a massive backend market is accelerating its formation. Power battery recycling involves the collection, processing, and reuse of waste power batteries, aiming to promote resource circulation, protect the ecological environment, and drive long-term industry development. Currently, the standardized recycling rate for waste power batteries in China remains below 50%, with a large number of waste batteries flowing into informal channels such as "small workshops," posing environmental risks and causing the waste of strategic resources. Standardized recycling and utilization of retired power batteries are of great significance for reducing environmental pollution, ensuring the security of national critical metal resources, promoting industrial greening, and enhancing international competitiveness. In February 2025, the State Council Executive Meeting reviewed and passed the "Action Plan for Improving the NEV Power Battery Recycling and Utilization System," explicitly proposing to improve the standard system and achieve standardized, safe, and efficient recycling and utilization of power batteries. Shortly thereafter, six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment jointly issued the "Interim Measures for the Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries from New Energy Vehicles," which will take effect on April 1, 2026. This upcoming regulation is regarded by the industry as a "watershed" for the sector. The "Management Measures" establish a "full life cycle" supervision system for power batteries, create a national traceability information platform for NEV power batteries, promote the monitoring of power battery flows and information traceability throughout their life cycle, and clarify the recycling responsibilities of power battery enterprises and NEV producers. This means that power battery recycling will shift from the past "guerrilla" operations to an era of "regular army" engagement. The introduction of the new regulation sets a clear "code of conduct" for the industry, aiming to resolve the structural contradiction between the "segmented" layout of the industry chain and the "full life cycle" management requirements, and to build a closed-loop chain of "production—use—recycling—regeneration."

According to precious metals and refinery services provider Heraeus, the gold price continues to show a consolidation phase. Following record highs at the end of December, the market is currently moving sideways within a clearly defined trading range rather than forming a pronounced upward or downward trend.