On Tuesday, Eastern Time, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned that the energy shock stemming from the Middle East conflict is threatening the US Fed’s dual mandate, complicating its monetary policy outlook and potentially delaying interest rate cuts—echoing earlier remarks by Fed Governor Barr that inflation risks and oil prices support keeping rates unchanged for longer. Specifically, the energy price shock poses risks to both sides of the US Fed’s dual mandate, making the trade-off between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth more complex. “The new shock has undoubtedly disrupted the US Fed’s plans... and inflation was already uncomfortably high even before the shock occurred,” Goolsbee said bluntly. Goolsbee noted that central bank policymakers around the world lack clear historical experience to draw on in dealing with the current mix of geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures, and therefore “this is a bad situation for central banks.” Goolsbee stressed that the current path of interest rates at central banks around the world still depends heavily on how the conflict evolves, especially its impact on energy markets. As for the US Fed, he said he is not yet able to judge whether it will be able to cut interest rates again, because that outlook depends on the duration of the conflict and the extent to which rising oil prices affect overall inflation. “Only if inflation shows improvement can one realistically expect rates to fall this year,” he added, further reinforcing the US Fed’s data-dependent stance. The US Fed’s Internal Stance Is Turning More Cautious These remarks by Goolsbee were highly consistent with earlier comments by Fed Governor Michael Barr. Barr had previously also emphasized that, given that US inflation remains above target and elevated oil prices are further pushing up inflation, interest rates may need to remain unchanged “for some time.” In addition, Barr likewise pointed out that although the US labour market appears to be stabilizing, US Fed officials need to see clear evidence of sustained disinflation before considering interest rate cuts. Taken together, these comments highlight the US Fed’s increasingly cautious shift in stance. As geopolitical developments exert a growing influence on the US inflation outlook, the combination of persistent price pressures and external shocks has reinforced expectations that high inflation will last longer, while also creating uncertainty over the feasibility of further policy easing in the near term. For markets, the key point is that after the Russia-Ukraine shock several years ago, energy-driven inflation risks have now been firmly incorporated into the US Fed’s reaction function. As a result, US Fed rate expectations may remain sensitive not only to economic data, but also to developments in the Middle East conflict and their impact on oil prices.

According to the latest customs data, in January 2026, China’s imports of copper-zinc alloy (brass) bars and rods were 2,050.01 mt in physical content, down 8.37% MoM and up 24.53% YoY. In February, China’s imports of copper-zinc alloy (brass) bars and rods were 1,344.87 mt in physical content, down 34.4% MoM and down 36.67% YoY, showing an overall sharp decline. Cumulative imports in January-February 2026 were 3,394.87, down 9.94% YoY cumulatively. (HS codes 74072111, 74072119, 74072190).

The latest customs data showed that in February 2026, China’s imports of unwrought silver ingots with a purity of no less than 99.99% reached 206.76 mt, up 499% MoM and surging 5,910% YoY to a multi-year high. The rare opening of the import window drove significant changes in the supply-demand pattern of the domestic silver ingot market.

SMM News, March 25: In early trading, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward, but was slightly higher than the previous trading day. Overall market buying sentiment was good, and sellers held prices firm as aluminum prices remained at relatively low levels. Later in the morning, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated upward, with its center running higher than the previous trading day. Some sellers still did not quote prices, while some showed a notably stronger willingness to hold prices firm. Overall market buying sentiment was good. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated around the average price of the SHFE aluminum 04 contract to a premium of 10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.64, up 0.01 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.02 WoW. Today, aluminum prices stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by the fear of further declines over the previous two days, traders and downstream processing enterprises in central China showed slightly improved buying sentiment today from the previous day, but overall transactions had not yet returned to a fully active state, and buyers tended to purchase at wider discounts. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from a discount of 20 yuan to a premium of 10 yuan against the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.64, up 0.01 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.02 WoW. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 4,000 mt from the previous period today, with Guangdong being the main source of destocking. In the short term, aluminum ingot continued its post-Chinese New Year seasonal inventory buildup. Supported by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

Spot prices of #1 copper cathode in North China against the front-month contract were reported at a discount of 110 yuan/mt to a discount of 50 yuan/mt today, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the average transaction price rose 1,635 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 95,595 yuan/mt.

On March 25, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained stable.

[SMM Tin Brief Commentary: SHFE Tin Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Closing Up 2.94% as Macro Pressure and Bottom Support Vied Against Each Other]

I. Coal-to-Hydrogen Shandong anthracite transaction range [1,680-1,680], with an average hydrogen cost of [1.61 yuan/m³] Shanxi anthracite transaction range [910-910], with an average hydrogen cost of [1.05 yuan/m³] Hebei anthracite transaction range [1,390-1,390], with an average hydrogen cost of [1.39 yuan/m³] Henan anthracite transaction range [980-980], with an average hydrogen cost of [1.06 yuan/m³] II. Natural Gas-to-Hydrogen Pearl River Delta natural gas transaction range [5,520-5,620], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.62 yuan/m³] Zhejiang natural gas transaction range [5,500-5,850], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.63 yuan/m³] Guangxi natural gas transaction range [5,180-5,610], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.5 yuan/m³] Eastern Guangdong natural gas transaction range [5,500-5,590], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.58 yuan/m³] Henan natural gas transaction range [4,720-4,890], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.31 yuan/m³] Hebei natural gas transaction range [4,720-5,080], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.33 yuan/m³] Hubei natural gas transaction range [4,980-5,350], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.44 yuan/m³] Guizhou natural gas transaction range [4,990-5,720], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.51 yuan/m³] Sichuan natural gas transaction range [4,825-5,125], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.38 yuan/m³] Shanxi natural gas transaction range [4,520-4,880], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.22 yuan/m³] Shandong natural gas transaction range [5,040-5,250], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.44 yuan/m³] Heilongjiang natural gas transaction range [4,810-5,060], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.34 yuan/m³] Inner Mongolia natural gas transaction range [4,560-4,800], with an average hydrogen cost of [2.18 yuan/m³] III. Propane-to-Hydrogen South China propylene oxide transaction range [7,280-7,370], with an average hydrogen cost of [4.11 yuan/m³] East China propylene oxide transaction range [7,100-7,310], with an average hydrogen cost of [4.05 yuan/m³] Northeast China propylene oxide transaction range [5,890-6,310], with an average hydrogen cost of [3.5 yuan/m³] Shandong propylene oxide transaction range [6,960-7,300], with an average hydrogen cost of [4.03 yuan/m³] IV. Hydrogen Production from Methanol The methanol transaction range in east China was [2,800-3,290], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.61 yuan/m³]. The methanol transaction range in central China was [2,780-2,990], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.54 yuan/m³]. The methanol transaction range in north China was [2,360-2,830], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.29 yuan/m³]. The methanol transaction range in south China was [3,310-3,390], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.8 yuan/m³]. The methanol transaction range in northwest China was [1,630-2,630], and the average hydrogen cost was [1.97 yuan/m³]. The methanol transaction range in southwest China was [2,770-3,020], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.55 yuan/m³]. The methanol transaction range in northeast China was [2,770-2,790], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.44 yuan/m³].

[SMM Tin Morning Briefing: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Opened Sharply Higher in the Night Session and Then Rebounded in Volatile Trading, While the Spot Market Will Gradually Cool Down]

[Overnight, LME Aluminum and SHFE Aluminum Edged Up Slightly, but Aluminum Prices Faced Short-Term Pressure at High Levels] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening fund liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum remained insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. China’s social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle had yet to end, with high inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly weighing on upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and prices were mainly under pressure in the short term.