[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Copper prices rose from yesterday, but both buying and selling sentiment pulled back intraday, indicating that downstream acceptance of current price levels remained limited. In terms of market structure, under the current price spread between futures contracts structure, suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, with some offloading cargo, driving overall spot discounts down rapidly, while downstream willingness to make counteroffers was relatively evident. Entering the second trading session, after premiums were cut further, market transactions improved somewhat, but downstream procurement remained generally cautious, mainly focused on restocking on dips, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between suppliers actively selling and downstream buyers purchasing cautiously, Shanghai spot copper discounts were expected to remain under pressure tomorrow.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,816/mt. After dipping to $11,798/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,395/mt, then hovered at highs, and finally closed at $12,221/mt, up 3.27%. Trading volume reached 52,000 lots, and open interest stood at 292,000 lots, down 944 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,010 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center moved higher to a high of 95,900 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs. Near the close, it dipped to 94,530 yuan/mt and finally closed at 93,840 yuan/mt, up 2.12%. Trading volume reached 120,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 6,741 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions throughout the day.

Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran tensions are driving up aluminum prices and premiums. Aluminium Bahrain and Qatalum have cut output, while feedstock is tight. Rerouting via Port of Sohar or Saudi ports raises costs and delays. Buyers are turning to China, India, Russia, Canada, and scrap to offset risk. Prolonged disruption could reduce Middle East market share and reprice it as higher-risk supply.

SMM News, March 24: Aluminum ingot: On March 24, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was reported at 23,440, up 30, at a discount of 170 against the current-month contract, narrowing by 5 (unit: yuan/mt) The SHFE aluminum 04 contract generally stabilized today. Supported by aluminum prices halting their decline and edging up slightly, the South China spot market stabilized and improved, and buyers generally showed good purchasing sentiment today. Spot prices were significantly below the monthly average price, and sellers firmly held prices firm. However, amid weekend inventory buildup and ample circulating cargo, overall support for firm prices was clearly constrained under high inventory pressure. Mainstream transaction prices in the market today were concentrated at premiums of -175 yuan/mt to -165 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract.

[SMM Tin Brief Commentary: SHFE Tin Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Closing Up 2.94% as Macro Pressure and Bottom Support Vied Against Each Other]

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain in a tug-of-war. Copper prices declined somewhat during the day, and downstream enterprises showed stronger restocking sentiment, but considering the heavy concentrated purchases already made last week, actual incremental buying was relatively limited. Inventory side, according to SMM, combined social inventory in Shanghai and Jiangsu fell by about 41,600 mt, showing a sharp destocking trend. During the day, supplier quotations were steady at first and then declined, with suppliers actively selling as premiums rebounded, and the sell-off put pressure on spot prices. In addition, some suppliers had already quoted against the SHFE copper 2604 contract using cargoes with invoices dated next month during the day, indirectly reflecting moderate sales volume within the month and strong willingness to sell among suppliers. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between faster destocking and supplier sell-offs, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at the current level tomorrow.

SMM, March 23: Today in Guangdong, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract was quoted at 110 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from yesterday; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 92,985 yuan/mt, down 2,960 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 92,865 yuan/mt, down 2,965 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory fell for a fifth straight day, mainly due to limited arrivals and increased shipments. As copper prices plunged, suppliers once sought to hold prices firm and sell in early trading, with standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt. However, as the current structure has shifted to a backwardation structure, more suppliers showed strong willingness to sell and proactively lowered premiums to move cargoes, sending standard-quality copper down to a discount of 10 yuan/mt. Today, the procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.63, up 0.12 from the previous trading day, while shipment sentiment was 3.42, up 0.04 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, as futures shifted to a backwardation structure, suppliers actively sold, and spot turned to discounts, with overall trading remaining average.

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: SHFE Tin Pulled Back Under Pressure in Early Trading After Rebounding, and Spot Transactions Weakened]

SMM, March 24: SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward in early trading, slightly higher than the previous trading day. Overall market buying sentiment was relatively good, and sellers held prices firm as aluminum prices remained at relatively low levels. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at SHFE aluminum 04 contract +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 2.79, up 0.07 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.34, up 0.04 MoM. As aluminum prices extended their decline, traders in the central China market showed weak purchase sentiment. With the month-end settlement date approaching, suppliers made heavy shipments and showed limited willingness to hold prices firm. Downstream processing enterprises were wary of further price declines, with no expectation of large-scale stockpiling at low prices for now. Overall market purchase activity was sluggish, and prices showed a continued price collapse trend. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market were concentrated in the range from a premium of 20 yuan over the central China price to a discount of 20 yuan to the central China price. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.63, flat MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.4, down 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 6,500 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Gongyi and Guangdong. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot inventory continued to see seasonal inventory buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

SMM News, March 24: Today, in Guangdong, spot prices for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were reported at a premium of 70 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; a discount of 30 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, down 20 yuan/mt from yesterday; and a discount of 90 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, down 20 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 94,030 yuan/mt, up 1,045 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 93,920 yuan/mt, up 1,055 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory declined for six consecutive days, mainly due to limited arrivals and higher shipments. Although inventory continued to fall, downstream users showed weak restocking interest as copper prices surged sharply. Suppliers had to keep lowering spot premiums to conclude deals. Overall, trading activity in the market was noticeably weaker today than yesterday. Today, the purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.48, down 0.15 from the previous trading day, and the shipment sentiment was 3.31, down 0.11 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, after the sharp rebound in copper prices, downstream buying sentiment weakened, and spot premiums moved lower.