SMM August 8: Base metals market: Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets generally fell, with only LME aluminum, LME lead, LME nickel, and SHFE nickel rising. LME nickel led the gains with a 1.5% increase, SHFE nickel rose 0.52%, LME aluminum rose 0.09%, and LME lead rose 0.03%. LME zinc led the declines with a 1.9% drop, LME tin fell 1.67%, SHFE zinc fell 1.54%, and SHFE tin fell 1.51%. The rest of the metals fell within 1%. Alumina main contract rose 0.04%, while cast aluminum main contract fell 0.09%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel rose 0.21%, rebar closed flat at 3,010 yuan/mt, and iron ore fell 0.56%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose 1.71% and coke rose 1.15%. Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold rose 2.37% overnight, reclaiming $4,400/oz, with a weekly surge of 7.17%. COMEX silver rose 3.56% overnight, with a weekly surge of 10.41%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 1.53% and SHFE silver rose 1.66%. SHFE gold jumped 5.03% weekly, and SHFE silver surged 9.43% weekly. UBS Chief Investment Officer Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi and her team said, "This gold rally is supported by fundamentals. We expect gold prices to approach $5,000/oz in H1 2027." Since the US and Israel launched a war against Iran at the end of February, gold prices came under pressure and pulled back. UBS strategists noted that risks remain in the near term. If oil prices rise, or if the market prices in expectations of a more hawkish Fed monetary policy and rising bond appeal, gold could face pressure. However, the institution maintains an optimistic outlook on gold's medium- to long-term trend. Hoffmann-Burchardi said the team expects inflation to gradually ease, and the Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged this year and restart an interest rate cutting cycle in 2027. "The growing expectation of lower policy rates is likely to depress real yields and drag on the US dollar, thereby boosting investment demand for gold and creating a more favorable market environment for the metal," she said. (Wallstreetcn) As of 7:40 on August 8, overnight closing prices: Macro Front Domestic: [Exceeding 30 Trillion Yuan! China’s Goods Trade Import and Export Continued Growth Momentum in First 7 Months] China's General Administration of Customs today released statistics showing that in the first seven months of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 30.13 trillion yuan, up 17.3% YoY, continuing a solid growth trend. Exports amounted to 17.44 trillion yuan, up 14%, while imports stood at 12.69 trillion yuan, up 22%. In July, imports and exports totaled 4.66 trillion yuan, up 19.2% YoY. Exports reached 2.71 trillion yuan, up 17.8%, while imports were 1.95 trillion yuan, up 21.2%. SMM, based on data released by the General Administration of Customs, has compiled the import and export situation of some products in the metals industry, as follows: [Aluminum industry profits in H1 up about 115% YoY; exports of aluminum semis and aluminum products up about 14% YoY] In H1 2026, aluminum industry profits rose about 115% YoY. This came as aluminum prices increased, while raw material prices such as alumina pulled back. Some enterprises further adopted green power like hydropower and expanded the use of new energy, making production greener and securing more cost advantages. Not only were domestic clients rushing to place orders, but overseas clients were also increasing their orders. In H1 this year, China exported a total of 5.62 million mt of aluminum semis and aluminum products, an increase of about 14% compared with the same period last year. With more orders and busier production lines, environmental protection facilities also operated at full capacity. (CCTV Finance) [Beijing: moderately raising the maximum loan amount for housing provident fund; a married couple may borrow up to 3.4 million yuan for their first home purchase] On the evening of the 7th, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Planning and Natural Resources, and the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center jointly issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Policies." It mentioned moderately raising the maximum loan amount for housing provident fund. For a home-buying family with one provident fund contributor, the maximum loan amount for a first home purchase is 1.2 million yuan, and for a second home, it is 1 million yuan; if both spouses are contributors, the maximum loan for a first home is 2.4 million yuan, and for a second home, it is 2 million yuan. The maximum loan amount can be further increased under the following conditions: 1. For a household with household registration in the six central urban districts that purchases a first home outside those six districts, the maximum can be increased by 200,000 yuan; 2. For a home purchase that complies with the city's green building development support policies, the maximum can be increased by 400,000 yuan; 3. For families with two or more children of Beijing household registration, the loan amount can be increased by 400,000 yuan. If multiple conditions are met simultaneously, the increases can be stacked. For a family with one provident fund contributor, the maximum increase is 600,000 yuan; for a family where both spouses are contributors, the maximum increase is 1 million yuan. The actual loan amount will be determined based on the family's repayment ability. (Jinshi Data APP) In terms of the US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.35% to 99.6, declining 0.18% for the week and logging a second straight weekly loss. US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far below market expectations of an increase of 80,000, while the May and June figures were revised down by a combined 103,000. The labour force participation rate dropped to the lowest in more than five years. The disappointing employment data sent the probability of a September rate hike plunging from 55% to 44%, the 10-year US Treasury yield diving from 4.68% to 4.65%, and the US dollar index breaking below 99.5 during the session. ‘New Fed Wire’ Nick Timiraos: The July employment report will be a difficult one for the Fed to interpret. There is no new evidence of a re-acceleration in the labour market, which may somewhat weaken the case for a rate hike next month, but this still depends on whether inflation data can improve further. Officials held rates steady last week, but three of the twelve officials voted to raise rates. The decline in the unemployment rate will keep the focus on inflation data. (Wallstreetcn) The latest survey results from the New York Fed show that Americans’ overall expectations for the labour market improved in July, and their inflation expectations also changed. Consumers’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations edged down to 3.6% from 3.7%. Three-year-ahead and five-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.3% and 3%, respectively. The perceived probability of finding a new job among unemployed workers rose to 46.2%, the highest this year. This increase was most pronounced among those with a high school diploma or less and households with an annual income below $50,000. Consumers grew more optimistic about the stock market, with the probability that stock prices will be higher a year from now reaching the highest level since this data series began in April 2021. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME’s ‘FedWatch’ tool: The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September is 59.9%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 40.1%. For October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 45.3%, with a 44.9% probability of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 9.8% probability of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Next week, China will release data including the July M2 money supply year-on-year rate; the US will release data including the July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the ADP employment change for the week ending July 25, the July existing home sales annualized total, the July unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, the July seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate, the July seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate, the July unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate, the awarded yield on the 10-year Treasury auction for the week ending August 12, the bid-to-cover ratio on the 10-year Treasury auction for the week ending August 12, the initial jobless claims for the week ending August 8, the July PPI year-on-year rate, the July PPI month-on-month rate, the July retail sales month-on-month rate, the August preliminary one-year inflation expectations, the June business inventories month-on-month rate, and the August preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index; the Eurozone will release data including the August Sentix investor confidence index, the June industrial production month-on-month rate, the Q2 GDP year-on-year revised reading, the Q2 seasonally adjusted employment change final quarter-on-quarter rate, and the June seasonally adjusted trade balance; the UK will release data including the Q2 GDP year-on-year preliminary reading, the June three-month GDP month-on-month rate, the June manufacturing production month-on-month rate, the June seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and the June industrial production month-on-month rate; data including the France final July CPI month-on-month rate, the Canada June wholesale sales month-on-month rate, the Japan June trade balance, the Australia Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision for the week of August 11, and the Germany final July CPI month-on-month rate will all be released. Additionally, the National Energy Administration releases nationwide electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. The Bank of Japan released the summary of opinions from its July monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia announced its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. RBA Governor Bullock held a monetary policy press conference. 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivered remarks. 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin spoke on the economic outlook. RBA Governor Bullock attended a hearing. Crude oil: Oil prices fell in overnight trading, with WTI crude down 0.27% and Brent crude down 0.13%. On a weekly basis, WTI crude fell 8.96% and Brent crude fell 6.31%. The market remained focused on negotiations between the US and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Expectations of US-Iran peace talks suppressed geopolitical risk premiums. Goldman Sachs’ energy research team estimated Brent’s fair value at $80/bbl and maintained its view of a consolidation range of $80–90/bbl. On August 7, US officials stated that Oman and Iran had made progress on the Strait of Hormuz issue, and an agreement is expected to be reached soon. Once an agreement to restore unimpeded commercial shipping is announced, the US will lift its blockade of Iranian ports. US actions will continue to be performance-based and linked to Iran’s fulfillment of its commitments. There was no immediate response from Iran or Oman to the above. (CCTV) It was reported on August 7 that Hassan Qashqavi, spokesperson for Iran’s Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated that Iran and Oman had finalized the general framework of a memorandum of understanding on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with the final text and specific details to be publicly released shortly. On August 6, Iran publicly disclosed preliminary textual details of its proposed strategic management plan for the Strait of Hormuz, which includes provisions barring hostile parties from transiting the strait, with violators subject to fines of up to 20% of cargo value. Iran has repeatedly emphasized in recent days that arrangements related to the Strait of Hormuz should be decided solely through consultations between Iran and Oman, and that no external interference will be accepted. Meanwhile, US President Trump stated on the 6th that the US is participating in negotiations concerning the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV) Next week, the EIA will release its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the IEA will publish its monthly Oil Market Report, and OPEC will issue its monthly Oil Market Report (specific release dates for the monthly reports are to be determined, generally published around 18:00–21:00 Beijing time). A new round of price adjustments for domestic refined oil products in China will open.

The Indonesian Presidential Office said on Friday that mineral exports that had been blocked due to rare earth element (REE) detection have resumed, with aluminum hydroxide and alumina cargoes loaded and shipped from West Kalimantan province. Presidential Chief of Staff Abdurachman Dudung said in a statement that the alumina products, produced by PT Indonesia Chemical Alumina, had previously been held up due to "divergent interpretations" of the policy on rare earth element content in metal exports.

Market sources indicate that the DRC has issued a new administrative directive, deciding to completely ban the export of copper concentrates and cobalt concentrates. In response, a reporter called Huayou Cobalt as an investor, and a company representative stated that the ban targets primary mineral products such as "copper concentrates" and "cobalt concentrates," while Huayou Cobalt’s finished products in the DRC are crude cobalt hydroxide (a cobalt intermediate product) and electrodeposited copper (copper cathode), which are not affected by the concentrate export ban, adding that "it should be roughly the same for Chinese enterprises."

In July 2026, the operating rate of secondary copper rod was 12.43%, lower than the expected 12.61%, down 0.18 percentage points MoM and 18.47 percentage points YoY. In July 2026, the copper scrap rod market operated under the dominant theme of the most-traded SHFE copper contract shooting up from 102,000 yuan/mt to above 106,000 yuan/mt, with a monthly gain exceeding 3,000 yuan/mt. Driven by the one-sided rally of copper cathode and insufficient follow-through from copper scrap, the price difference between primary metal and scrap widened from around 2,000 yuan/mt at the start of the month to over 4,000 yuan/mt at month-end, and at one point mid-month it even reached 4,800 yuan/mt. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod also hit the economic threshold of above 1,800 yuan/mt during the copper price surge. Under the dual framework of continued reverse invoicing compliance constraints and deepening high-temperature off-season, the market displayed a distinct polarization: structural tightness in supply, robust downstream arbitrage-driven purchases, and an off-season that was even weaker for physical consumption. Starting July 1, the new "three-in-one reverse invoicing" policy (with the prepayment rate of individual income tax for natural persons with annual sales of up to 600,000 yuan reduced to 0.25%) was formally implemented, further reshaping the regional supply landscape. On the supply side, the copper scrap market continued the structural tightness seen since 2026, with the underlying constraint still being the combined impact of the reverse invoicing policy and the phase-out of fiscal and tax subsidies: inspections in Hubei and other regions became stricter, and invoicing quotas in areas such as Shuyang, Jiangsu remained restricted. More critically, in July, Henan province abolished fiscal and tax subsidies while reverse invoicing could still be implemented. In Shuyang, Jiangsu, following the reverse invoicing controls, companies were notified in July of the cancellation of subsidies, and most scrap utilization enterprises had suspended operations to wait and see. Some unfulfilled orders from Jiangsu flowed to neighboring provinces, and available compliant and deductible copper scrap remained tight. Mainstream copper scrap invoice tax rates had exceeded 11%, rising to 12% in some areas, further driving up raw material procurement costs for enterprises. On the demand side, as the price difference between primary metal and scrap widened to above 3,800 yuan/mt, the economic viability of copper scrap became evident, and secondary copper rod enterprises' purchase willingness was remarkably robust. However, this robust purchase willingness was mainly directed at futures arbitrage rather than physical restocking. During the copper price surge, secondary copper rod enterprises widely adopted a hedging logic of "buy raw materials and sell futures" to purchase copper scrap. After securing enough for the day's demand during the morning session, they stopped quoting and did not chase higher prices to accept goods. However, such arbitrage-driven purchases initially did not fully translate into actual production restocking. The end-user wire and cable and enamelled wire industries were squeezed by the dual pressures of low copper cathode inventories with high premiums and high absolute copper prices, with pervasive fear of high prices. New orders became even weaker in the off-season. At month-end, secondary copper rod enterprises’ raw material inventory had reached a relatively ample level after mid-month hedging purchases, and the purchasing sentiment index dropped from 2.21 to a low of 2.03. The core market contradiction shifted from "spread dividend goes to arbitrage" to "ample inventory suppressing transactions." Overall, the core contradiction in the secondary copper rod market in July shifted from "copper price level" to "who gets the spread dividend" and "where compliant supply is located" — the price difference between primary metal and scrap of around 4,000 yuan/mt brought by the copper price surge was essentially captured by arbitrage funds; secondary copper rod enterprises’ operations of buying raw materials and shorting futures supported the circulation of copper scrap, but this was not transmitted to physical consumption. The cancellation of subsidies in Henan, Shuyang in Jiangsu, and other regions triggered a regional supply restructuring, further concentrating compliant cargoes in areas with a relatively stable policy environment. The outflow of orders from Jiangsu to neighboring provinces is a direct reflection of this restructuring. Looking ahead to August, if the price difference between primary metal and scrap can stabilize above 4,000 yuan/mt, the implementation standards for reverse invoicing become clearer, and quotas in some regions are marginally relaxed, this may drive some restocking demand. Otherwise, amid a combination of low copper cathode inventory, high premiums, and downstream users’ fear of high prices, the secondary copper rod market will continue with a weak equilibrium pattern of "suppliers sell when copper prices rise, rod enterprises hedge and buy, but both sides wait and see when prices are high." A genuine recovery in physical consumption will still need to wait for a correction in copper prices or a material improvement in end-user orders.

South Africa exported 123,310.23 tonnes of high-carbon ferrochrome in June 2026, down a modest 0.32% month-on-month but sharply lower — down 44.57% — year-on-year. The near-flat monthly reading suggests exports have found a temporary floor after an extended period of decline, but the scale of the annual drop confirms that South Africa's ferrochrome trade remains firmly on the back foot, in stark contrast to the chrome ore side of the business, which posted export volumes nearly 39% higher than a year earlier over the same month. Figure 1: South Africa high-carbon ferrochrome export volume and destination breakdown, June 2026 A Decline Rooted in the Smelters, Not the Market The subdued year-on-year performance is best explained by looking at what has been happening inside South Africa's ferrochrome furnaces rather than at demand abroad. Merafe Resources' H1 2026 production report, released in late July, showed the scale of the domestic problem directly: attributable ferrochrome production from the Glencore Merafe Chrome Venture collapsed 75% to just 28,000 tonnes, driven by extended suspensions at the Wonderkop and Boshoek smelters and a partial suspension at Lion. With a significant share of the country's ferrochrome-producing capacity effectively offline for much of the period being compared against, a steep year-on-year export decline is a direct, mechanical consequence of reduced output — not evidence that international buyers have gone elsewhere. Read this way, June's export weakness is a supply-side story, not a demand-side one. A Destination Mix That Looks Nothing Like Chrome Ore's China remained South Africa's largest ferrochrome destination in June, but at 31.56% of shipments, its share was far lower than the 67.61% it commanded in the equivalent chrome ore export data for the same month. That gap is telling: China's ferrochrome smelters are built to process imported raw chrome ore into alloy domestically, which is precisely why the country absorbs such an outsized share of South African ore but a comparatively smaller share of already-finished ferrochrome. South Korea's position as the second-largest destination, at 16.63%, fits the same logic from the opposite direction — Korea has limited domestic chrome ore resources and no comparable smelting base, so its stainless steel producers rely on imported semi-finished ferrochrome rather than ore. Together, the two destinations underscore how the ferrochrome trade is shaped by which countries can smelt their own ore and which cannot, a very different dynamic from the ore trade's concentration around Chinese furnace demand alone. A Possible Turning Point Ahead The timing of June's data is worth noting. Around the same period, Eskom and South Africa's ferrochrome producers reached a negotiated electricity tariff agreement, and Merafe subsequently announced the restart of the Wonderkop and Boshoek smelters at the very end of June. If that restart translates into a sustained production ramp-up through the second half of 2026, it raises the prospect that the worst of the year-on-year export declines may be behind the industry, with H2 2026 figures potentially beginning to narrow the gap against 2025 comparatives. That said, restarting idled smelters is rarely instantaneous, and the extent of any recovery will depend on how quickly output ramps back toward pre-suspension levels — a trend worth tracking closely over the coming months rather than assuming resolved. A Policy Backdrop Pulling in the Opposite Direction It's worth noting that ferrochrome sits on the other side of South Africa's chrome policy debate compared with raw ore. Where chrome ore exports have drawn government intervention — export permitting through ITAC and a proposed export tax, aimed specifically at discouraging raw shipments and pushing more material toward domestic beneficiation — ferrochrome is the very outcome that policy is designed to encourage more of. Seen against that backdrop, June's weak ferrochrome export figures represent something close to the opposite of the government's stated goal: less beneficiated product reaching export markets, even as raw ore shipments continue to climb. That contrast adds a layer of urgency to the smelter restart story, since a durable recovery in ferrochrome export volumes would be a more direct sign of the beneficiation strategy gaining traction than any adjustment to ore-export policy alone. A Note on Demand Resilience While South Korea's steady share of June shipments points to continued underlying buying interest, it's worth flagging that Chinese domestic high-carbon ferrochrome tender pricing had shown signs of softening in mid-July, with a bearish outlook for the following month's tender round. That suggests demand resilience may not be uniform across all destination markets, and is a detail worth weighing alongside the export volume data rather than assuming steady global demand across the board. Bottom Line June's ferrochrome export data tells a story of a market held down by supply constraints rather than weak demand, with a destination mix shaped by which countries smelt their own ore and which import the finished alloy. With Wonderkop and Boshoek now restarted and a new electricity tariff framework in place, the coming months will be the real test of whether South Africa's ferrochrome trade can begin closing the gap with 2025 levels, or whether the divergence between a booming chrome ore trade and a struggling ferrochrome trade becomes the defining feature of the country's chromium sector for the rest of 2026.

On July 31, Zhongfu Industrial said during a survey that in H1 2026, its aluminum deep processing business continued to carry out quality and efficiency improvement, as well as development of Chinese and overseas markets. First, it benchmarked against advanced international levels, improving production efficiency and output through measures such as process optimization, digital and intelligent upgrades, and lean management. Second, based on changes in domestic and overseas markets, it adjusted the proportion of domestic sales and exports in a timely manner to enhance profitability. Third, it accelerated the R&D and market promotion of high-value-added products such as aluminum foil for new energy battery aluminum-plastic film, enriching its high-value-added product portfolio. In H1 2026, both production and sales of the company's aluminum deep processing business achieved YoY growth.

According to a report on July 28, CAMALCO, the Cameroon subsidiary of Australian mining company Canyon Resources, plans to start transporting bauxite from the Minim Martap project by rail to the port of Douala in the coming days. The seven locomotives purchased for this operation are currently undergoing testing, and as mining activities progress, more freight cars are expected to be purchased to expand the fleet. The Ministry of Transport did not disclose the exact start date or specify whether the first shipment would be a trial run or a commercial transport. The announcement concerns the inland transport of bauxite and does not mean that maritime exports from Douala will start simultaneously.

On August 7, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 10.211 million mt of steel products in July 2026, down 199,000 mt MoM, or 1.9% MoM; cumulative exports from January to July reached 64.995 million mt, down 4.4% YoY. In July 2026, China imported 445,000 mt of steel products, up 4,000 mt MoM, or 0.8% MoM; cumulative imports from January to July were 3.14 million mt, down 10.1% YoY. Table 1: Steel Imports and Exports Data Summary, January-July Source: SMM • China's steel exports stayed elevated with fluctuations in July According to SMM's July export schedule survey, the planned HRC export volume for the month was 1.059 million mt, slightly higher than actual exports in June. SMM export order data showed that export orders for steel products declined from a high level in May. At that time, port inspections on MD and other activities were relatively strict, which slowed down the pace of some export orders. However, orders at steel mills improved slightly. Coupled with the fact that cargoes delayed due to earlier inspections were gradually shipped out in July, overall steel exports in July still delivered a relatively decent performance. Table 2: China's Total Steel Exports Source: SMM • July steel imports remained low On the import side, steel imports in July were 445,000 mt, up 4,000 mt MoM, or 0.8% MoM; cumulative imports from January to July were 3.14 million mt, down 10.1% YoY. Net exports of steel reached 61.855 million mt. Short-term Steel Export Outlook 1. Global manufacturing slid further MoM; overseas demand remained in off-season mode According to J.P. Morgan's global PMI data, the Global Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 came in at 52.1. Although it remained in expansion territory, the pace of expansion slowed for the third consecutive month. The preemptive steel stockpiling demand earlier triggered by geopolitical disruptions in Middle Eastern shipping has been fully cleared. Combined with persistently weak demand for consumer goods, property, and infrastructure among end-users in Europe and the US, global commodity and physical steel orders collectively fell into contraction territory. Alongside this, ASEAN manufacturing PMI also declined again. China's Manufacturing New Export Orders Index for July was 49.6%, down 0.5 percentage points MoM, slipping back into contraction territory. 2. Overseas steel mills have proactively controlled production; supply contraction lacks sustainability In June 2026, global crude steel production fell 0.3% YoY to 157.9 million mt. In China, as the southern rainy season and high-temperature off-season deepened, downstream steel product construction was significantly hampered. Under heavy pressure from persistently inverted profit margins, steel mills' monthly output edged down 0.8% MoM. Excluding China, production in the rest of the world declined 2.0% MoM, with performance diverging in Asia's core regions. India and Vietnam both saw flat MoM output in June; the former was supported by robust domestic infrastructure resilience, while the latter benefited from earlier concentrated stockpiling and steady operation following new capacity ramp-up. In contrast, Japan and South Korea were dragged by slowing production schedules in downstream automotive and manufacturing sectors, showing a seasonal slight correction. Notably, the Middle East and CIS regions, which had plunged deeply in May, saw marginal recovery. Meanwhile, Europe and the US collectively entered a seasonal weakening trajectory. EU production in June dropped significantly by 5.3% MoM, with Germany tumbling 9.4%; North America declined 5.9% MoM and the US also fell 4.0%. The main reasons for the pullback in Europe and the US were, on one hand, the industry's entry into the routine summer maintenance period, and on the other, the high summer electricity prices and steel scrap prices squeezing electric furnace margins, significantly dampening mills' willingness to operate. The decline in overseas production theoretically offers structural opportunities for China's exports. However, the drops in end markets like Europe and the US were more due to proactive production cuts driven by falling demand. Coupled with India and Vietnam still maintaining high output, China's exports continue to face pressure. Figure 1: Global Crude Steel Production by Region Source: SMM 3. Price advantage continued to narrow; export order-taking pressure persisted As of July 31, 2026, the HRC export offers (FOB) for India, Turkey, and the CIS stood at $515/mt, $575/mt, and $515/mt, respectively, while China's HRC export offer (FOB) was $486/mt. China's HRC offers were -$29/mt, -$89/mt, and -$29/mt lower than those other countries, respectively. China's steel export price advantage further narrowed MoM from June. Overseas markets remained in the off-season, and low-price promotions remained the main channel for those countries to ease domestic pressures. In contrast, domestic sales pressure was not evident, and prices remained relatively firm. The price spread between Chinese and overseas markets continued to narrow, and pressure on export order-taking persisted. Figure 2: HRC Offers in Major Global Markets Source: SMM 4. Export orders rebounded from a bottom in June-July; order-taking improved slightly According to SMM's latest steel mill export order schedule, the planned HRC export volume this month was 1.023 million mt, down 2.8% MoM from the actual level last month. SMM steel export order data showed that although overseas markets remained in the off-season, recent restrictions on resource exports from the Middle East (especially Iran) created a notable supply gap in semi-finished products in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia. This shortfall was quickly filled by Chinese resources. On the other hand, traders took profits from spot-futures price spread operations in late July, offering lower actual prices to facilitate transactions, which led to a bottoming rebound in export order data in July. In reality, overseas demand had not yet emerged from the off-season, and a steady recovery in export order-taking still faces pressure. Figure 3: SMM Steel Export Order Volume Source: SMM 5. Anti-dumping cases related to steel increased in July In July, the number of new anti-dumping cases related to steel initiated against China increased, covering products such as steel pipes, coated steel, sections, coiled rebar, wire rod, and hot-rolled coils. Details of specific cases and affected volumes are shown in the table below: Table 3: New Anti-Dumping Cases in July Source: SMM Taking all factors into account, lower actual transaction prices stimulated some volume growth, with semi-finished products accounting for a larger share. Given that July export numbers have already been significantly elevated, SMM expects that total steel exports in August will not sustain a strong unilateral upward trend. Instead, they will move sideways in a high range, while semi-finished product exports will remain relatively high. Figure 4: Steel Exports and Forecast, 2024-2026 Source: SMM Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original work of this official account. For requests related to reprinting, whitelisting, cooperation, etc., please contact us. Without permission, no part may be reproduced, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or otherwise disclosed to any third party, nor may any third party be authorized to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will pursue legal action for infringement, including but not limited to holding the infringing party liable for breach of contract, restitution of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. 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The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) released data showing that from July 1 to 31, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China totaled 970,000 units, down 2% YoY and down 4% MoM, with year-to-date cumulative retail sales reaching 5.675 million units, down 12% YoY; from July 1 to 31, wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles by producers reached 1.463 million units, up 24% YoY but down 1% MoM, with year-to-date cumulative wholesale reaching 8.251 million units, up 8% YoY. From July 1 to 31, the retail penetration rate of the national new energy market was 64.4%; the wholesale penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles by producers was 65.3%.

According to the Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Quantum Computing Chips, a joint research team from Origin Quantum and the University of Science and Technology of China has innovatively proposed a "parameter-space-extended controlled-phase gate (PSE-CZ)" scheme, successfully resolving the long-standing trade-off between speed and fidelity in superconducting quantum computing, and achieving a two-qubit quantum gate that significantly enhances accuracy while maintaining high-speed operation. The results have been published in Physical Review Letters, a top international physics journal, with experimental verification carried out on China's independently developed superconducting quantum computer "Origin Wukong".