According to SMM statistics, as of June 12, in-factory inventory days for aluminum rod in China stood at 2.66 days, a sharp decline of 1.25 days WoW from 3.91 days on June 5, with the inventory ratio plunging from 37.45% to 9.28%, a drop of 28.17 percentage points. During the same period, the weekly operating rate of the aluminum wire and cable industry recorded 82.10%, up 1.76 percentage points WoW

Semi-Annual Review and Outlook: Rigid Demand Steadily Released, High-end High-Induction Grain-Oriented Steel Expected to Maintain Stable and Improving Trend

According to the SMM survey, as of June 16, the operating rate of the 50 EAF steel mills nationwide that mainly produce construction steel stood at 41.7%, up 0.86% WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 43.07%, up 0.74% WoW; and daily average construction steel production was 95,900 mt, up 1,700 mt WoW.

Semi-Annual Review and Outlook: Capacity Expansion Continues to Suppress Prices, Non-oriented Struggles to Shake Off Downturn Shadow

As of June 9, the operating rate of 50 EAF steel mills in China mainly producing construction steel stood at 40.9%, down 0.30% WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 42.33%, down 0.37% WoW; and daily average construction steel production reached 94,300 mt, down 800 mt WoW.

Philippine ore quotes flat MoM, market awaits new pricing window This week, nickel ore prices in the Philippine market were basically stable compared to last week. CIF China quotes: Ni 1.3% at $49-52/wmt, 1.4% at $57-60, and 1.5% at $65-67; quotes for shipment to Indonesia were 1.3% at around $48-50 and 1.4% at around $56-58. No obvious loosening or upward adjustment was seen across grades for either CIF China or CIF Indonesia quotes, with miners tending towards conservative quotation intentions. Supply side, Philippine shipments were relatively ample overall this week, with no noticeable tightening in market cargo supply. Mines maintained normal loading pace, and no major weather disruptions interfered with the supply chain. Market participants generally expect new rounds of price announcements in the coming weeks, and the near-term ore price direction awaits clearer signals from these pricing markers before further assessment. Demand side, large smelters in China and Indonesia jointly pushed for lower prices, leveraging ample inventory. Shipping volumes to Indonesia were somewhat lower than last month, with buyers clearly dominating price negotiations. As of June 5, nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports reached 5.36 million mt, up 110,000 mt MoM, equivalent to approximately 42,100 mt Ni in metal content; Indonesian smelter inventory continued to accumulate simultaneously. Rising inventory levels at both locations indicate that the demand side is unlikely to provide effective support in the near term. Divergence between sellers and buyers was significant, and the price center edged lower amid a tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand, with overall market sentiment subdued. Continued pushback on raw material prices by smelters caused the price center for nickel ore CIF to shift further downwards, providing extremely weak support for Philippine ore FOB prices. Indonesian nickel ore market: Indonesian ore prices under downward pressure, persistently low grades constrain supply quality This week, Indonesian nickel ore market prices came under downward pressure overall, with the official reference price recording a slight correction, as cost tug-of-war across the industry chain persisted. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially released the HMA for the first half of June 2026: nickel price at $18,799.29/mt (down $50 from $18,849.29/mt in the second half of May 2026); cobalt price at $55,851.43/mt; iron ore price at $1.58/mt; chrome ore price at $6.37/mt. Based on SMM's internal calculation model, simulations for saprolite ore (Fe 20%, Cr 1%, Co 0.05%) show theoretical HPM prices for all grades slightly lower from the previous period. The theoretical HPM price for Ni 1.6% grade was approximately $70.75/wmt (down $0.08 MoM), and for Ni 1.2% grade was approximately $49.84/wmt (down $0.10 MoM). In terms of transaction prices, this week, delivery-to-factory prices for 1.6% grade saprolite ore were quoted at $73.8–78.8/wmt, down MoM, representing a premium range of +$3 to +$8/mt over the theoretical HPM price of $70.75/wmt. The premium narrowed significantly from earlier highs, reflecting the combined impact of sustained smelter pushback on prices and ample supply, and significantly squeezing miners' profit margins. This week, actual spot prices for 1.2% grade limonite ore were around $28–33/wmt, representing a discount of approximately $17–22 against the theoretical HPM calculated price of $49.84/wmt, with the discount depth remaining severe. Despite the slight adjustment in the HMA reference price, spot limonite ore prices failed to follow at all, heavily constrained by low downstream HPAL capacity utilization rates and tight sulphuric acid supply, with a serious disconnect between the two. Supply side, domestic ore supply in Indonesia improved this week, with overall supply relatively loose. However, ore grades remained persistently low, with mainstream circulated grades in the market around 1.45%–1.50% Ni range. High-grade saprolite ore (≥1.6%) remained a scarce resource, and some smelters faced difficulties supplementing high-grade ore sources, compelling increased blending operations with lower grades. According to the latest BMKG maritime meteorological data, weather conditions in the Morowali waters were good this week, with wave heights of 0.4–0.5 meters (low waves) and stable winds, leaving vessel operations unaffected; weather turned somewhat adverse in the East Halmahera waters, experiencing light rain, northeast winds at 9–10 knots, and wave heights reaching 1.4–2.0 meters (moderate waves), with BMKG issuing a wave alert, requiring heightened attention to shipping operations; the Obi waters also experienced light rain, southeast winds at 13–14 knots, and wave heights of 1.3–1.6 meters (moderate waves), with BMKG also issuing a wave height alert, somewhat impacting ore shipment efficiency. Demand side, overall raw ore inventory at smelters remained at relatively sufficient levels. SMM data shows that in May, the nickel ore inventory coverage index for pyrometallurgy smelters was about 2 months, and the cycle inventory index for HPAL hydrometallurgy plants was about 1.7 months, leaving little appetite for near-term restocking and a clear inclination to push for lower ore prices. In the limonite ore market, the tight supply of sulphuric acid had yet to fundamentally improve, with pressure on MHP production persisting. Operating rates at some hydrometallurgy producers remained low, and purchasing prices for limonite ore came under pressure. Policy level, Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs confirmed at a meeting yesterday that the DSI ferroalloy export takeover mechanism would formally enter a transition period starting June 1, 2026 (through August), with full implementation required by January 1, 2027, at the latest. The minister confirmed at the meeting the HS codes for ferroalloys included in the takeover scope. Given that nearly all Indonesian NPI exports are declared under HS code 7202.60.00, and this code has been confirmed as included within the DSI takeover scope, NPI is highly likely to be covered by the DSI export takeover. The complete official regulatory text has yet to be officially released, and final confirmation remains subject to official announcement. However, Chinese-invested smelters should begin assessing the potential impact of the transition period on export logistics and compliance costs. In addition, while reiterating its commitment to honoring existing valid long-term contract commercial credit, the government will strictly investigate contracts suspected of "low-price customs declarations." Relevant authorities will soon commence consultations with major industry associations to close loopholes causing tax revenue losses from low pricing. According to markets outside China, Harita Nickel's PT Trimegah Bangun Persada has taken the lead in submitting a ferronickel export report through the DSI "single window" system. CEO Roy Arman Arfandy stated that the export process has been operating normally since June 2, progressing relatively smoothly overall.

In May, key materials for sodium-ion batteries sustained their strong momentum, with both cathode and hard carbon anode recording sharp YoY and MoM growth. Top-tier players’ order books were full and capacity utilization rates approached their limits. On the supply side, the pattern of rising volumes and stable prices was pronounced, yet pressure to pass on rising raw material costs was also building.

As of June 2, the operating rate of 50 major construction steel EAF steel mills nationwide was 41.2%, up 1.24% WoW; capacity utilization rate was 42.70%, up 0.73% WoW; daily average production of construction steel was 95,100 mt, up 1,600 mt WoW.

During the survey period (May 26–June 1), the rebar rolling line operating rate in the Central China region remained stable, while the capacity utilization rate edged up.

In May, China's aluminum fabrication industry recorded an overall PMI of 50.8%, barely staying above the 50 mark but pulling back significantly by 3.1 percentage points from April. Industry sentiment slid from the edge of expansion territory toward the critical threshold, with structural divergence intensifying further.