The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

As of April 28, the operating rate of 50 major construction steel electric furnace steel mills nationwide was 40.2%, down 1.2% WoW; capacity utilization rate was 41.7%, down 0.84% WoW; daily average construction steel production was 92,800 mt, down 1,900 mt WoW. During the survey period (April 21–April 28), two electric furnace mills in South China and Central China slightly reduced operating hours, while another Central China electric furnace mill implemented production shutdown and maintenance due to poor production profitability, causing the nationwide electric furnace operating rate to drop 1.2% WoW. Overall, electric furnace mill profitability has diverged at this stage. Some electric furnace mills were dragged down by high raw material and electricity costs, with production profitability under pressure. These mills have proactively reduced operating hours, driving construction steel supply to pull back WoW. Some electric furnace mills still plan to reduce operating hours next week, so electric furnace operating rates are expected to continue declining.

In March 2026, the global steel market experienced a fierce geopolitical "sudden chill." According to the latest data from WSA, global crude steel production in March fell by 4.2% year-on-year to 159.9 million tons. The US-Iran conflict that erupted on Feb 28, and the subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have completely disrupted the spring recovery rhythm of the global steel supply chain, with the shadow of energy crises and logistical interruptions rapidly spreading worldwide.

During the survey period (April 21–April 27), both the operating rates and capacity utilization rates of rebar and wire rod in the Central China region declined.

April 24, 2026: According to SMM statistics, as of April 24, 2026, in-factory days of inventories at aluminum rod plants in China stood at 9.02 days, up 0.68 days from before the holiday. In terms of inventory ratio, the in-factory inventory ratio at aluminum rod plants in China was 97.22%. During the week, aluminum prices moved sideways and remained in the doldrums, while aluminum rod processing fee quotes stayed stable. By region, as of April 24, 2026, aluminum rod processing fee quotes were concentrated at 350-450 yuan/mt in Jiangsu, 250-350 yuan/mt in Hebei, and 350-450 yuan/mt in South China. For aluminum rod processing fees in other regions, quotes were 150-250 yuan/mt in Shandong, 150-250 yuan/mt in Inner Mongolia, and 250-350 yuan/mt in Henan. Recently, aluminum rod inventory showed a gradual accumulation trend, mainly because aluminum prices continued to fluctuate at highs, downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong, purchasing sentiment was weak, and market capacity remained ample, leading to continued low-level competition in processing fees. This week, the weekly operating rate of the aluminum wire and cable industry in China rose to 67.6%, up 0.4 percentage points WoW. After the previous surge in power grid demand, orders at aluminum wire producers in China trended toward stability, with top-tier enterprises maintaining a normal production pace. On the export front, as the price spread between ex-China and domestic markets widened further, and given that aluminum stranded wire enjoys a 13% export tax rebate and has aluminum content close to that of aluminum ingots, the cost of exporting aluminum stranded wire and re-melting it into aluminum ingots outside China was lower than purchasing aluminum ingots directly ex-China. Driven by the profit spread, plants in Hebei regained new orders, and production schedule expectations rebounded significantly. Therefore, against the backdrop of surging export orders, the capacity utilization rate in the industry is expected to further rebound, with operating rates at plants staying high.

As of April 21, the operating rate of 50 major construction steel-producing electric furnace steel mills nationwide was 41.4%, down 0.6% WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 42.5%, down 0.3% WoW; daily average production of construction steel was 94,700 mt, down 700 mt WoW. During the survey period (April 14–April 21), four electric furnace mills in east China and southwest China shortened their operating hours, leading to a 0.6% WoW decline in the nationwide electric furnace mill operating rate. Although construction steel prices edged up this week, steel scrap prices rose more than finished steel prices, causing profitability at electric furnace mills to decline. More enterprises voluntarily shortened production hours. Overall, some electric furnace mills are currently facing weak shipments and profitability under pressure. Enterprise production enthusiasm has weakened. Next week, some electric furnace mills still plan to reduce operating hours, and therefore the electric furnace operating rate will continue to decline going forward.

As of April 14, the operating rate of 50 major construction material-producing electric furnace steel mills nationwide was 42%, up 0.58% WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 42.8%, up 0.2% WoW; daily average production of construction materials was 95,300 mt, up 400 mt WoW. During the survey period (April 7–April 14), operating rates of electric furnace mills nationwide showed mixed changes. One electric furnace mill in southwest China resumed production as planned, driving the overall operating rate to edge up. However, two electric furnace mills in east China and south China saw their profitability fall into loss territory due to steel scrap costs continuing to fluctuate at highs while finished product prices weakened, leading to increased pressure on production and operations, with some actively reducing operating hours. Overall, the overall profitability of electric furnace steel mills pulled back WoW, and finished product shipments were lukewarm. If profitability continues to deteriorate going forward, more electric furnace enterprises are expected to reduce operating hours or lower production loads, and the electric furnace operating rate may see a phased pullback.

According to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), US domestic raw steel production for the week ending April 11, 2026, reached 1.843 million net tons, reflecting a capacity utilization rate of 79.8%. This represents a 0.7% increase from the previous week. Adjusted year-to-date production through April 11 stands at 25.871 million net tons at a 77.5% capacity utilization rate, up 5.5% compared to the 24.519 million net tons produced during the same period last year.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 104.743 million mt of iron ore and concentrates in March 2026, an increase of 7.375 million mt MoM, up 7.6% MoM; cumulative imports of iron ore and concentrates from January to March totaled 314.762 million mt, up 10.5% YoY. Beyond fundamental factors, geopolitical conflicts also contributed to the increase in iron ore imports in March to a certain extent. Specifically, the escalation of tensions in the Middle East severely disrupted commercial shipping along the Strait of Hormuz. Although direct exports from the Middle East to China were relatively small, the disruption to the global logistics system caused by regional conflicts forced some vessels originally planned to transit through the Middle East or pass through those waters to reroute. These resources were redirected to East Asian markets including China. In addition, as domestic blast furnace capacity utilization rates gradually improved in March, the steel industry's demand for ore further increased, thereby stimulating iron ore imports. Looking ahead to April, although the direct impact of the Middle East situation on China's total iron ore imports is relatively limited, if the Middle East conflict fails to achieve substantive de-escalation within the month, some international bulk carriers are likely to continue avoiding Middle Eastern ports for transshipment, resulting in China passively receiving more cargoes from other regions to a certain extent. Furthermore, as large-scale ex-China mining projects progressively advance, global ore supply remains generally ample, and shipments led by Simandou (estimated at 20 million mt for the full year) are expected to bring a certain degree of uplift to iron ore supply exported to China in April. From a seasonal perspective, Q2 is typically the traditional peak shipping season for iron ore. Therefore, taking all the above factors into consideration, China's iron ore imports in April are expected to show a certain growth trend.

The EU reached a preliminary agreement on Monday to cut steel imports by nearly half and impose a 50% tariff on excess steel imports to protect the EU steel industry from the impact of overcapacity in other regions. Affected by rising imports and the 50% tariff imposed by US President Trump, the capacity utilization rate of EU steel producers currently stands at only 65%. The new measures aim to raise the capacity utilization rate to 80%. The European Parliament and representatives of the Council of the EU, which represents the governments of EU member states, reached an agreement on Monday evening to cap duty-free imports at 18.3 million mt per year, a 47% reduction from 2024, while doubling tariffs on volumes exceeding the quota.