The latest US inflation data has been released, showing that seasonally adjusted CPI in February rose 0.3% MoM and was up 2.4% YoY; core CPI increased 0.2% MoM and rose 2.5% YoY, with all figures in line with market expectations. However, the prevailing market view is that the February data has not yet reflected the impact of the sharp rise in oil prices caused by the situation in Iran. Therefore, further data is still needed to support judgment on when the US Fed will cut interest rates again.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), affected by the Chinese New Year holiday, China's consumer price index (CPI) in February rose 1.0% MoM and 1.3% YoY, while core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 1.8% YoY.

The US CPI data for February met expectations, with core goods rising MoM and core services cooling slightly. In February, US CPI rose 2.4% YoY, unchanged from the previous reading, and 0.3% MoM, showing a slight pickup. In February, core CPI rose 2.5% YoY, unchanged from the previous reading, and 0.2% MoM, slightly below January's 0.3%. At the same time, both US CPI and core CPI for February came in fully in line with market expectations, and with the February YoY data completely unchanged from the previous reading, this release could be described as "largely in line with expectations." Structurally, core goods rose 0.08% MoM, a slight pickup from January's 0.04%. Core services rose 0.27% MoM, slowing down from January's 0.39%.

[SHFE/LME Price Ratio Pulled Back and Fluctuated Around 7.3]: This week, the SHFE/LME price ratio pulled back and fluctuated around 7.3, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Outside China, easing inflation concerns boosted a rebound in zinc prices; subsequently, investors stayed cautious about an escalation of the Middle East conflict, while a stronger US dollar, together with US February CPI coming in line with expectations and still-sticky inflation, drove LME zinc to fluctuate lower.

SMM Nickel, March 12: Macro and Market News: (1) US February CPI rose 2.4% year on year, and core CPI rose 2.5% year on year, in line with market expectations. (2) Trump said Iran had "nothing left to strike," and the war would end soon. The Iranian president proposed three necessary conditions for ending the war: recognizing Iran's legitimate rights, paying war reparations, and providing firm guarantees from the international community to prevent future acts of aggression. Spot Market: On March 12, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 1,200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,750 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel were at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) surged in the night session, but fell sharply during the morning session, closing the morning session at 137,400 yuan/mt, up 0.08%. On the macro front, there were signs that the risk-off sentiment stemming from geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East was easing in the short term. Supply side, the core driver remained Indonesia's unchanged policy of tightening nickel ore supply. In the short term, the price of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt range.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: The US Fed Held Rates Unchanged, and LME Zinc Came Under Pressure] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,220.5/mt. In early trading, LME zinc briefly rose to a high of $3,227/mt, after which bulls reduced their positions, and LME zinc fluctuated downward throughout the session, hitting a low of $3,130/mt near the close. It finally closed down at $3,132.5/mt, a decrease of $100.5/mt, or 3.11%. Trading volume increased to 16,556 lots, and open interest fell by 6,295 lots to 208,000 lots.

National Bureau of Statistics: In February, the CPI rose 1.3% YoY; ex-factory prices for industrial producers fell 0.9% YoY.

[SMM Aluminum Flash] Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in February 2026, the nationwide consumer price index rose 1.3% YoY. Of this, urban areas rose 1.4% and rural areas rose 0.9%; food prices rose 1.7% and non-food prices rose 1.3%; consumer goods prices rose 1.1% and service prices rose 1.6%. On average in January–February, the nationwide consumer price index rose 0.8% from the same period a year earlier. In February, the nationwide consumer price index rose 1.0% MoM. Of this, urban areas rose 1.0% and rural areas rose 0.7%; food prices rose 1.9% and non-food prices rose 0.8%; consumer goods prices rose 0.8% and service prices rose 1.1%.

The market's main trading focus has remained on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Looking at this week's macro information, Trump released signals of negotiation, but Iran clearly stated that its new supreme leader would not negotiate with him. There was no clear easing in the US-Iran conflict for now, and concerns over energy and supply continued to be priced in. The US February CPI data came in line with expectations, showing inflation cooling steadily; however, against the backdrop of geopolitical conflict, divergences over the inflation outlook widened and uncertainty rose significantly.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in January 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% YoY. Specifically, urban areas saw a 0.2% rise, while rural areas increased by 0.1%; food prices declined by 0.7%, whereas non-food prices rose by 0.4%; prices for consumer goods went up by 0.3%, and prices for services increased by 0.1%.