SMM June 13: Metal market: Overnight, base metals broadly rose in both domestic and overseas markets, with only LME nickel edging down 0.03%. SHFE tin led the gains with a 2.19% increase, while LME copper, LME zinc, LME tin, and SHFE zinc all rose over 1%—LME copper up 1.02%, LME zinc up 1.63%, LME tin up 1.75%, and SHFE zinc up 1.48%. The remaining metals saw gains within 1%. In addition, alumina's main contract rose 0.86%, and cast aluminum's main contract rose 0.45%. Overnight, ferrous metals broadly rose except for iron ore, which fell 0.13%, while rebar rose 0.44% and hot-rolled coil rose 0.59%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal rose 0.22% and coke rose 2.73%. Overnight, precious metals rebounded across the board, with COMEX gold up 3.06% and COMEX silver up 6.44%. However, due to significant earlier declines, COMEX gold still recorded a weekly loss of 2.87%, marking its second consecutive weekly decline; COMEX silver fell 1.42% on a weekly basis, marking its fifth straight weekly decline. On the domestic front, SHFE gold rose 2.3%, and SHFE silver rose 5.22%. Among them, SHFE gold fell 6.79% on a weekly basis, also its fifth consecutive weekly decline; SHFE silver tumbled 10.14% on a weekly basis, also recording a five-week losing streak. Bank of China issued a notice stating that, recently, global geopolitics and the US Fed's monetary policy have faced considerable uncertainties. Under the influence of multiple factors, precious metal price fluctuations in and outside China have further intensified. To protect the interests of clients involved in precious metal-related businesses such as gold accumulation, interest-bearing gold accumulation, precious metal accounts, two-way precious metal accounts, and agency services for personal trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, our bank particularly reminds you to guard against market risks, engage in rational investment based on your financial status and risk tolerance, reasonably control precious metal positions, and mitigate the impact of short-term price fluctuations through long-term investment, to prevent the risk of capital losses from market fluctuations. As of 8:31 am on June 13, the overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic front: [PBOC: Aggregate social financing rose by 17.48 trillion yuan in the first five months; new loans reached 9.11 trillion yuan; M2 money supply increased 8.6% YoY in May] Preliminary PBOC statistics show that the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing in the first five months of 2026 was 17.48 trillion yuan, which was 1.16 trillion yuan less than the same period last year. Of this, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 9 trillion yuan, 1.38 trillion yuan less YoY; foreign currency loans to the real economy, in yuan terms, increased by 115.3 billion yuan, 211.6 billion yuan more YoY; entrusted loans decreased by 103.1 billion yuan, 91.8 billion yuan more of a decrease YoY; trust loans increased by 5.7 billion yuan, 57 billion yuan less YoY; undiscounted bankers' acceptances decreased by 17.2 billion yuan, 151.4 billion yuan more of a decrease YoY; net corporate bond financing was 1.67 trillion yuan, 757.7 billion yuan more YoY; net government bond financing was 5.67 trillion yuan, 634 billion yuan less YoY; and equity financing by non-financial enterprises on the domestic market was 230.5 billion yuan, 79.9 billion yuan more YoY. Over the first five months, renminbi loans increased by 9.11 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 631.4 billion yuan, of which short-term loans fell by 694.2 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 62.8 billion yuan; corporate (institutional) loans increased by 9.63 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans grew by 3.77 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans grew by 4.99 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 699.9 billion yuan; loans to non-banking financial institutions decreased by 279.7 billion yuan. Central bank data shows that at end-May, the broad money (M2) balance stood at 353.67 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. The narrow money (M1) balance was 114.89 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) balance was 14.69 trillion yuan, up 11.9% YoY. Over the first five months, net cash injection reached 590.7 billion yuan. According to the central bank's official website, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on June 15, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 600 billion yuan outright reverse repo operations via fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price auction, with a tenor of six months (183 days), maturing on December 15, 2026. As for the US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index gained 0.1% to 99.79, down 0.28% for the week, with markets closely watching the peace talks between the US and Iran. On the 12th, multiple US media reported that a senior US government official said that day that the US has "80% to 85%" confidence in signing a memorandum of understanding with Iran in the coming days. Meanwhile, the US is "confident" that Israel will support this US-Iran MoU. According to reports from CNN, CBS, and others, the official said at a telephone press briefing, "We haven't quite reached the finish line, but we're very close." The official said the specific location and date for the US-Iran MoU signing have yet to be determined, but US President Trump previously suggested signing it in a European country, which could be an option. (Xinhua News Agency) On the 12th, Iranian media reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that once Iran and the US complete the final stage of negotiations, the MoU will be signed and announced immediately. The first stage will be signed remotely via electronic means, "which could happen in the coming days." (Xinhua News Agency) In a report, HSBC analysts noted that the US dollar exchange rate is currently below the level implied by market expectations for US interest rates. They noted that as market expectations have recently shifted from anticipated rate cuts to possible rate hikes, the dollar's response has been relatively limited. They believe this likely reflects loose US financial conditions and market hopes for a resolution to the Middle East conflict. They said the dollar needs a clear stimulus from monetary policy. If the US Fed fails to support rate hike expectations at next week's meeting, the dollar “could be in trouble”. (Jinshi Data APP) Traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, but see a more than 50% chance of a rate hike before year-end. On Thursday, after Trump’s comments on a potential deal, market pricing edged down slightly. Other currencies: Turner Chris, an analyst at ING, said that for EUR/USD trend, the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting may be more important than the ECB’s rate hike decision on Thursday. The ECB has already signaled further rate hikes, and the market is speculating about another hike in July. But he said that since the market has already priced in the ECB’s aggressive tightening cycle and is reluctant to push those expectations higher, the EUR/USD exchange rate has remained below 1.16. Moreover, the market believes the Fed may raise rates later this year. He said that unless the Fed pushes back against these expectations at its meeting on Wednesday, the dollar should stay firm. (Jinshi Data APP) Data: Next week, China will release China's May total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, China's May industrial value-added of enterprises above designated size YoY, China's May share of yuan in global payments via SWIFT, China's May total electricity consumption YoY (TBC), China's May total electricity consumption (TBC), and other data; the US will release the US Fed interest rate decision (upper bound) for the period to June 17, the US June Empire State manufacturing index, US May industrial production MoM, US June NAHB housing market index, ADP employment change for the week ended May 30, US May housing starts annualized total, US May building permits total, US May import price index MoM, US May retail sales MoM, US April business inventories MoM, US May pending home sales index MoM, US initial jobless claims for the week ended June 13, US June Philly Fed manufacturing index, US May Conference Board Leading Economic Index MoM, and other data; the UK will release UK May CPI MoM, UK May retail price index MoM, UK ILO unemployment rate for the three months to April, UK May unemployment rate, UK May jobless claims change, UK Bank of England interest rate decision for the period to June 18, UK June Gfk consumer confidence index, UK May seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, and other data; the Eurozone will release Eurozone April seasonally adjusted trade balance, Eurozone April industrial production MoM, Eurozone June ZEW economic sentiment index, Eurozone May final CPI YoY, Eurozone May final CPI MoM, Eurozone April seasonally adjusted current account, and other data; Switzerland will release Switzerland May consumer confidence index, Switzerland May trade balance, Switzerland SNB policy rate for the period to June 18, and other data; Japan will release Japan BoJ target rate for the period to June 16, Japan May core CPI YoY, and other data; Canada will release Canada April wholesale sales MoM, Canada April retail sales MoM, and other data; Germany June ZEW economic sentiment index, Germany May PPI MoM, and Australia RBA interest rate decision for the period to June 16 will also be released. In addition, on June 15, China will see 218.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos mature, along with 600 billion yuan of six-month outright reverse repos. The National Energy Administration releases nationwide electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) publishes the monthly report on residential property prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) will hold a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan (TBD). China will also open a new round of fuel price adjustment windows. On June 18, the Fed’s FOMC will release its interest rate decision and summary of economic projections; Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference. ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech. BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the BOJ will release its interest rate decision. RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will release its interest rate decision, and the Bank of England (BOE) will release its interest rate decision and meeting minutes. The Group of Seven (G7) Summit opens and will run until June 17. Crude oil: Overnight, oil prices on both markets fell, with WTI down 3.9% and Brent down 3.96%. Expectations for a US-Iran peace agreement continued to heat up, putting oil prices under pressure and pulling them back. On a weekly basis, oil prices also fell, with WTI down 6.9% and Brent down 6.76%. In early US stock trading, according to CCTV, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the Islamabad memorandum of understanding was "closer than ever" to being reached, causing oil prices to tumble and US stock indices to extend their intraday gains. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei stated that the two sides had now reached an understanding on most issues, and that Iran was internally finalizing the text of the memorandum of understanding. During the US midday, CCTV reported that Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said "the final agreed text of the peace agreement has been completed," and that the two countries were moving forward with implementing the next steps. Oil prices continued their decline. During US trading, stocks briefly dipped after Trump criticized Iran for leaking the terms of the deal, before Wall Street Insights noted that the UAE had reportedly agreed to unlock large-scale funds for Iran, with an initial tranche of roughly $3 billion already transferred, further boosting optimism about reaching an agreement. (Wall Street Insights) US Secretary of Energy Wright stated that about 7 million barrels of oil and fuel currently transit the Strait of Hormuz daily, roughly half the amount of cargo stranded at the onset of the Iran conflict. Wright said that currently no Iranian crude oil can be shipped out through the Strait of Hormuz. He added that if an agreement is reached, he expects all products to be able to pass freely through the Persian Gulf. Wright also noted that if no agreement is reached, the US military will resume transport along the route. Wright stated that the US will not impose an oil export ban to curb oil prices. (Jinshi Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said on Friday local time that US refiners can still absorb more Venezuelan crude oil. Wright stated that Venezuela currently sends about half of its total exports of 1.2 million barrels per day to the US, and that proportion could rise in the coming months. Wright also said that Iran is not currently exporting any oil or refined products. During the Middle East conflict, the US has actively filled the gap in oil exports. (Jinshi Data APP) Due to the most severe supply disruption on record caused by the Iran conflict, US emergency reserve crude oil exports have surged to an all-time high. Customs data compiled by Kpler Ltd. show that nearly 22 million barrels of crude oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) have been sold to markets outside China so far this year. This volume has already exceeded the previous high set four years ago. Although US emergency reserve crude oil exports are not uncommon, the large scale of this year's shipments shows that with the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz causing supply disruptions, global markets are increasingly relying on US supplies to tide them over. About one in every three barrels of crude oil flowing out of the emergency stockpile is exported. The volume heading overseas could be even higher, as the Trump administration is still releasing the full 172 million barrels of crude oil it committed to. This is part of a broader effort by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to help cushion the impact of the Iran war on global energy markets. (Wall Street CN)

According to preliminary central bank statistics, the cumulative increase in total social financing (TSF) in the first five months of 2026 was 17.48 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan from the same period last year. Of which, new renminbi loans to the real economy increased by 9 trillion yuan, a YoY decrease of 1.38 trillion yuan; foreign-currency loans to the real economy converted into renminbi increased by 115.3 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 211.6 billion yuan; entrusted loans decreased by 103.1 billion yuan, a further YoY decrease of 91.8 billion yuan; trust loans increased by 5.7 billion yuan, a YoY decrease of 57 billion yuan; undiscounted bankers' acceptances decreased by 17.2 billion yuan, a further YoY decrease of 151.4 billion yuan; net financing of corporate bonds was 1.67 trillion yuan, a YoY increase of 757.7 billion yuan; net financing of government bonds was 5.67 trillion yuan, a YoY decrease of 634 billion yuan; and domestic equity financing of non-financial enterprises amounted to 230.5 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 79.9 billion yuan. In the first five months, renminbi loans increased by 9.11 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 631.4 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 694.2 billion yuan, and medium and long-term loans increased by 62.8 billion yuan; enterprise sector loans increased by 9.63 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 3.77 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 4.99 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 699.9 billion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 279.7 billion yuan. Central bank data show that at end-May, the broad money (M2) balance was 353.67 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. The narrow money (M1) balance was 114.89 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) balance was 14.69 trillion yuan, up 11.9% YoY. In the first five months, net cash injection was 590.7 billion yuan. Financial Statistics Report for May 2026 I. Outstanding Total Social Financing (TSF) Stock Increased by 7.7% YoY Preliminary statistics show that at end-May 2026, outstanding TSF stood at 458.81 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY. Of which, outstanding renminbi loans to the real economy were 277.4 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY; outstanding foreign-currency loans to the real economy converted into renminbi were 1.14 trillion yuan, down 4.3% YoY; outstanding entrusted loans were 11.22 trillion yuan, unchanged YoY; outstanding trust loans were 4.67 trillion yuan, up 7.1% YoY; outstanding undiscounted bankers' acceptances were 2.13 trillion yuan, down 6.2% YoY; outstanding corporate bonds were 35.69 trillion yuan, up 8.4% YoY; outstanding government bonds were 100.6 trillion yuan, up 15.1% YoY; outstanding domestic equity of non-financial enterprises stood at 12.43 trillion yuan, up 4.7% YoY. In terms of structure, at end-May, outstanding renminbi loans to the real economy accounted for 60.5% of outstanding TSF, down 1.2 percentage points YoY; foreign-currency loans to the real economy converted into renminbi accounted for 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points YoY; entrusted loans accounted for 2.4%, down 0.2 percentage points YoY; trust loans accounted for 1%, unchanged YoY; undiscounted bankers' acceptances accounted for 0.5%, unchanged YoY; corporate bonds accounted for 7.8%, up 0.1 percentage points YoY; government bonds accounted for 21.9%, up 1.4 percentage points YoY; domestic equity of non-financial enterprises accounted for 2.7%, down 0.1 percentage points YoY. II. In the first five months, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing was 17.48 trillion yuan Preliminary statistics show that in the first five months of 2026, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing was 17.48 trillion yuan, representing a decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year. Specifically, RMB loans extended to the real economy increased by 9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.38 trillion yuan YoY; foreign currency loans to the real economy converted into RMB increased by 115.3 billion yuan, an increase of 211.6 billion yuan YoY; entrusted loans decreased by 103.1 billion yuan, with the decline widening by 91.8 billion yuan YoY; trust loans increased by 5.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 57 billion yuan YoY; undiscounted bankers' acceptances decreased by 17.2 billion yuan, with the decline widening by 151.4 billion yuan YoY; net financing of corporate bonds was 1.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 757.7 billion yuan YoY; net financing of government bonds was 5.67 trillion yuan, a decrease of 634 billion yuan YoY; domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises amounted to 230.5 billion yuan, an increase of 79.9 billion yuan YoY. III. Broad money (M2) increased by 8.6% At the end of May, broad money (M2) outstanding was 353.67 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. Narrow money (M1) outstanding was 114.89 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) outstanding was 14.69 trillion yuan, up 11.9% YoY. In the first five months, net cash injection amounted to 590.7 billion yuan. IV. RMB deposits increased by 15.77 trillion yuan in the first five months At the end of May, outstanding deposits in domestic and foreign currencies reached 352.38 trillion yuan, up 8.7% YoY. At month-end, RMB deposit outstanding was 344.45 trillion yuan, up 8.7% YoY. RMB deposits increased by 15.77 trillion yuan in the first five months. Specifically, household deposits rose by 5.63 trillion yuan, deposits of non-financial enterprises by 1.26 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits by 1.91 trillion yuan, and deposits of non-bank financial institutions by 5.64 trillion yuan. At the end of May, foreign currency deposit outstanding was $1.16 trillion, up 17.5% YoY. In the first five months, foreign currency deposits rose by $103.2 billion. V. RMB loans increased by 9.11 trillion yuan in the first five months At the end of May, outstanding loans in domestic and foreign currencies stood at 284.79 trillion yuan, up 5.4% YoY. At month-end, RMB loan outstanding was 281.02 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. RMB loans increased by 9.11 trillion yuan in the first five months. By sector, household loans decreased by 631.4 billion yuan, of which short-term loans fell by 694.2 billion yuan while medium and long-term loans rose by 62.8 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 9.63 trillion yuan, including a 3.77 trillion yuan rise in short-term loans, a 4.99 trillion yuan increase in medium and long-term loans, and a 699.9 billion yuan expansion in bill financing; loans to non-bank financial institutions declined by 279.7 billion yuan. At the end of May, the outstanding foreign currency loan balance stood at $553.2 billion, up 2.6% YoY. Foreign currency loans increased by $8.2 billion in the first five months. VI. In May, the monthly weighted average interest rate for interbank lending in the interbank RMB market was 1.31%, and the monthly weighted average rate for pledged repo was 1.33%. In May, total trading volume in the interbank RMB market, comprising lending, cash bonds, and repos, reached 180.45 trillion yuan, with a daily average of 9.5 trillion yuan, up 7.9% YoY. Specifically, the daily average interbank lending volume grew 18.5% YoY, cash bond trading rose 4.7% YoY, and pledged repo trading increased 8% YoY. In May, the weighted average interbank lending rate was 1.31%, up 0.02 percentage points MoM but down 0.24 percentage points YoY; the weighted average pledged repo rate was 1.33%, up 0.02 percentage points MoM but down 0.23 percentage points YoY. VII. In May, cross-border RMB settlement under the current account amounted to 1.67 trillion yuan, and under direct investment, it was 0.58 trillion yuan. In May, cross-border RMB settlement under the current account totaled 1.67 trillion yuan, of which goods trade, services trade, and other current account items were 1.28 trillion yuan and 0.39 trillion yuan, respectively; cross-border RMB settlement under direct investment totaled 0.58 trillion yuan, consisting of 0.22 trillion yuan in outward direct investment and 0.36 trillion yuan in foreign direct investment. Recommended Reading: ] Latest financial data released: M2 and outstanding aggregate financing at end-February grew 8.7% and 9.0% YoY respectively. See how authoritative experts interpret this! ] Aggregate financing and new RMB loans hit second-highest level for the same period in history in the first two months; February M2 up 8.7% YoY ] In January 2024, new aggregate financing was 6.5 trillion yuan, new loans were 4.92 trillion yuan, and M2 grew 8.7% YoY ] PBOC: December aggregate financing increment was 1.94 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.17 trillion yuan, M2 up 9.7% YoY ] PBOC: November aggregate financing increment was 2.45 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.09 trillion yuan, M2 up 10% YoY ] November financial data released: The volume of aggregate financing continued to grow more YoY, and credit support for the real economy remained solid ] Will trillion-yuan government bonds "prop up" October money and credit data? Market expects overall strong aggregate financing but weak credit; RRR cut expectations still building ] PBOC: October aggregate financing increment was 1.85 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 738.4 billion yuan, M2 up 10.3% YoY ] PBOC: September aggregate financing increment was 4.12 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 2.31 trillion yuan, M2 up 10.3% YoY ] PBOC makes heavy-hitting remarks! Talking about China-US interest rate differentials, September financial data, mortgage rates on existing home loans... ] General Administration of Customs: China's imports and exports showed positive trends in the first three quarters; September hit a new single-month high for the year ] PPI and CPI data improved for three consecutive months; experts say price improvement further confirmed, expect the YoY improvement in PPI to continue ] NBS explains: September CPI was stable, PPI YoY decline narrowed for three consecutive months, both rose MoM ] September mobile phone export value doubled MoM; automobile export YoY growth continued to lead ] PBOC: August aggregate financing increment was 3.12 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.36 trillion yuan, M2 up 10.6% YoY ] PBOC: Act when it's time to act, resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshooting! USD/CNH plunged ] PBOC: August aggregate financing scale was 528.2 billion yuan, new RMB loans were 345.9 billion yuan, M2 up 10.7% YoY ] PBOC: June aggregate financing and new RMB loans far exceeded expectations, M2 up 11.3% YoY ] PBOC: May aggregate financing increment was 1.56 trillion yuan, 331.2 billion yuan more than the previous month ] PBOC: May RMB loans increased by 1.36 trillion yuan, with the previous figure at 718.8 billion yuan ] PBOC: May RMB deposits increased by 1.46 trillion yuan, 1.58 trillion yuan less than the same period last year ] PBOC: April aggregate financing increment was 1.22 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 718.8 billion yuan, M2 up 12.4% YoY ] PBOC: Q1 RMB deposits increased by 15.39 trillion yuan, loans increased by 10.6 trillion yuan

This week, macro sentiment was shaped by two key narratives: accelerating US-Iran peace talks and higher-than-expected inflation. Peace talks notably heated up—Trump said a peace deal could be signed in Europe as soon as this weekend, and Iran allowed 10 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as a goodwill gesture. Brent crude fell to a near two-month low of around $89/bbl as geopolitical risk premiums quickly faded. Mid-week, however, May CPI rose to 4.2% YoY, the first breach above 4% in three years (driven by energy, with core at 2.9%). The market’s expectation for the US Fed shifted from rate cuts to a possible hike within the year, and tightening fears weighed on industrial metals demand; copper prices briefly hit a three-week low. By the week’s end, optimism around US-Iran relations eased growth concerns, and copper prices rebounded, with COMEX recovering to around $6.35/lb. Overall, easing geopolitical tensions and sticky inflation offset each other. Ahead of the June 17 FOMC meeting (the first chaired by new Chair Warsh, who is expected to hold rates steady), the market leans toward a wait-and-see stance. Copper prices pulled back from highs on macro headwinds, with increased volatility. Fundamentals side, China’s spot market notably strengthened. On inventory, SMM social inventory fell to recent lows, and suppliers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm. Spot premiums quickly flipped from discounts; South China premiums surged around 230 yuan/mt in total this week, with the approaching delivery-related backwardation structure supporting SHFE copper premiums. Demand side, dip-buying activity picked up when copper prices fell and trading recovered, but as prices rebounded, downstream buying interest was suppressed and the market cooled—overall, demand remained need-based. The SHFE/LME price ratio recovered slightly, with buyers showing greater purchase willingness. The overall picture is one of low-inventory support, strengthening spot premiums, and a demand pattern that switches with price moves, lending support to copper’s downside. Looking ahead to next week, macro focus will center on the June 17 FOMC meeting (attention on Warsh’s comments on the inflation overshoot and the dot plot), whether the US-Iran deal materializes and progress on Strait of Hormuz navigation resumption, while the June 30 US copper cathode tariff ruling adds further uncertainty. If peace talks deliver and geopolitical risk continues to recede, risk appetite could recover but crude oil and inflation expectations would likely pull back in tandem; if sticky inflation pushes the Fed hawkish, risk assets would face pressure. As for fundamentals, low inventories and strengthening spot premiums offer downside support, while high copper prices deter chasing. LME copper is expected to trade at $13,300–$13,800/mt, and SHFE copper is expected to trade at 102,800-105,500, moving sideways in a high range with a slightly softer center. Spot premiums are expected to persist; attention will focus on the sustainability of suppliers holding prices firm post-delivery and downstream restocking intensity.

SMM June 12 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper rose 1.51%, SHFE tin rose 2.97%. SHFE nickel rose 0.94%. SHFE aluminum rose 1.06%. SHFE zinc rose 0.43%. SHFE lead fell 0.31%. In addition, casting aluminum linked futures rose 0.45%, alumina most-traded linked futures rose 1.45%. Lithium carbonate most-traded linked futures rose 3.85%. Silicon metal most-traded linked futures rose 0.63%. Polysilicon linked futures rose 5.91%. Ferrous metals all rose, iron ore rose 0.13%, rebar rose 0.66%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.74%, stainless steel rose 2.15%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal most-traded contract rose 3.02%, coke most-traded contract rose 5.63%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:38 AM, LME metals all rose. LME copper rose 1.01%, LME aluminum rose 0.54%, LME lead edged up. LME zinc rose 0.26%, LME tin rose 0.25%, LME nickel rose 0.67%. Precious metals: as of 11:38 AM, COMEX gold rose 2.63%, COMEX silver rose 5.36%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold most-traded linked futures rose 1.89%, SHFE silver most-traded linked futures rose 4.36%. Furthermore, as of the midday close, platinum most-traded linked futures rose 3.99%, palladium most-traded linked futures rose 5.69%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures contract fell 1.16% to 3,929.5 points. As of 11:38 AM on June 12, some futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper reported at 270 yuan/mt up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, standard-quality copper reported at a premium of 210 yuan/mt up 30 yuan/mt, SX-EW copper reported at a premium of 150 yuan/mt up 30 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,715 yuan/mt up 1,090 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,625 yuan/mt up 1,075 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory has declined for 9 consecutive days and has now hit a new low for the year... Macro front China: [PBOC's open market operations net injected 178 billion yuan on the day, and net injected 885.8 billion yuan this week] PBOC conducted 393 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with 215 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 178 billion yuan on the day. This week, PBOC conducted 1,112 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations, with 226.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, realizing a net injection of 885.8 billion yuan this week. (Jinshi Data APP) [Guangzhou: Fully Advance the Implementation of Major Projects Such as Intelligent Connected Vehicles and NEVs, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors and Integrated Circuits, and Low-Altitude Economy] The “Guangzhou Commerce Development 15th Five-Year Plan (Draft for Public Comments)” was released for public consultation. It highlighted the need to fully advance the implementation of major projects including intelligent connected vehicles and NEVs, ultra-high-definition video and new-type displays, green petrochemicals and new materials, intelligent equipment and robotics, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and integrated circuits, and low-altitude economy, and cultivate a group of leading intermediate product enterprises that are high-tech, manufacturing single champions, and specialized and sophisticated. Promote the accelerated development of intermediate product trade in foreign trade transformation and upgrading bases, and cultivate a number of well-known brands and “chain leader” enterprises. Support enterprises in using technologies such as the industrial internet, big data, and artificial intelligence for digital transformation, improving production efficiency and product quality, and driving the intermediate product trade to leap toward high-end and digital-intelligent development. (Jinshi Data APP) On the US dollar front: As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose 0.06% to 99.75. According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through June is 98.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.5%. The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through July is 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 7.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.4%. Market expectations for a US Fed rate hike have been pushed back from December this year to January next year, and the possibility of a rate hike this year is no longer fully priced in. (Jinshi Data APP) Amid sustained inflationary pressure driven by the Iran war, US producer prices in May rose at the fastest pace in more than three years. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the US PPI rose 6.5% YoY in May, the largest increase since November 2022, and rose 1.1% MoM. The core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose 4.9% YoY. The report highlighted the growing damage to the US economy from the energy price shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As the conflict is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, businesses are passing on higher energy and transportation costs, and other goods and services are also becoming more expensive. Combined with data earlier this week showing that consumer prices in May rose at the fastest pace in three years, Thursday's PPI report may further strengthen market expectations for a US Fed rate hike in 2026. As the labour market appears to be regaining growth momentum, the US Fed is shifting its focus to curbing inflation. On the data front: Today will see the release of Germany May CPI MoM Final, UK April Three-Month GDP MoM, UK April Manufacturing Production MoM, UK April Seasonally Adjusted Goods Trade Balance, UK April Industrial Production MoM, France May CPI MoM Final, US June 1-Year Inflation Expectations Prelim, and US June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Prelim. In addition, watch for: the Huawei Developer Conference on June 12-14; Elon Musk’s commercial space company SpaceX plans to list on the Nasdaq on June 12, 2026. Crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices in both benchmarks fell, with WTI crude down 1.12% and Brent crude down 1.15%. The US and Iran may reach a preliminary agreement on a memorandum of understanding, causing oil prices to pull back slightly. According to CCTV, on June 11 local time, US President Trump posted on the social media platform “Truth Social” that, given that consultations with Iran had been submitted to the highest leadership of Iran and approved, he had canceled the strike and bombing operation originally planned for that night against Iran. According to the latest OPEC data, Iran’s crude oil production fell 19% last month, as the US blocked the country’s ports amid the ongoing conflict. Data from the monthly report released on Thursday showed that Iran’s daily output dropped by 546,000 barrels to 2.33 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, OPEC’s latest monthly report showed that the organization on Thursday lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 970,000 barrels per day, marking its second consecutive downward revision. Since the outbreak of the Iran war, the producer group has believed that the conflict’s impact on consumption has been consistently smaller than that estimated by other forecasters such as the US Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency, both of which expect demand to decline in 2026. In addition, the report noted that the oil producer group raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2027. (Jinshi Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM Nickel, June 12: Macro and Market News: (1) Hours after Trump announced he would bomb Iran again, Trump stated that, given the consultation results with Iran have been approved by Iran’s top leadership, the strike on Iran tonight is canceled. The US-Iran agreement has entered the finalization stage and is expected to be signed in Europe this weekend. (2) The European Central Bank raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, marking the first hike in nearly three years. ECB President Lagarde stated that today’s decision is not an aggressive move, and the 25-basis-point hike serves as a signal. Spot Market: On June 12, SMM #1 refined nickel price rose by 900 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Regarding spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,750 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel premiums ranged from -500 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2607 contract rebounded in early trading, closing the morning session at 135,370 yuan/mt, up 0.94%. US CPI exceeded expectations, fueling rate hike expectations, and the world entered a monetary tightening window. On the Indonesia side, the premium accumulated earlier due to ore scarcity is being corrected. China’s refined nickel inventory has reached a historic high, and domestic inventory continues to increase. Visible inventory pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated, and nickel prices are under pressure in the short term.

SMM Jun 12 News: Metal markets: Overnight, domestic base metals broadly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.13%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.62%, SHFE lead fell 0.74%, SHFE tin rose 1.91%. SHFE zinc fell 0.19%. SHFE nickel rose 0.25%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 1.18%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.04%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore closed flat at 766.5 yuan/mt, hot-rolled coil (HRC) flat at 3,365 yuan/mt, stainless steel rose 1.91%, and rebar fell 0.33%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 0.33%, while the most-traded coke futures contract rose 0.35%. Overnight overseas market: LME base metals nearly all rose. LME copper rose 0.94%. LME aluminum rose 0.87%, LME lead fell 0.25%. LME zinc rose 1.64%. LME tin rose 2.01%. LME nickel rose 0.37%. Overnight precious metals : Overnight COMEX gold rose 2.43%, COMEX silver rose 4.25%. Overnight the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.75%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 2.41%. As of 7:15 on Jun 12, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [SAMR Approves Release of a Batch of Important National Standards] Recently, the State Administration for Market Regulation (Standardization Administration of China) approved the release of 389 important national standards, covering high-tech, traditional industries, environmental protection, agricultural production, and people's livelihoods. After publication, these standards will play a vital role in promoting high-quality industrial development, improving people's quality of life, and safeguarding life and property. In the high-tech sector, 33 national standards were released for artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, blockchain, etc., clarifying technical and safety specifications. Six national standards were released for industrial internet and industrial digital twins, promoting smart manufacturing upgrades. Fifteen national standards were released for spacecraft grounding requirements, manned spacecraft markings and usage requirements, and general requirements for parachute systems of civil light and small rotary-wing drones, laying a solid foundation for the large-scale application of China's aerospace equipment. (SAMR) [SHFE: Adjusting Price Limit and Margin Requirements for Gold and Silver Futures Contracts] SHFE announced that for the gold AU2609 contract, the price limit is 17%, the hedging position margin rate is 18%, and the speculative position margin rate is 19%; for the silver AG2706 contract, the price limit is 17%, the hedging position margin rate is 18%, and the speculative position margin rate is 19%. [GFEX: Matters Regarding Polysilicon Futures PS2706 Contract and Lithium Carbonate Futures LC2706 Contract] GFEX announced that for the polysilicon futures PS2706 contract, the trading fee rate is 0.025% of the transaction value, the intraday closing fee rate is 0.025% of the transaction value; the minimum order size per trade is 5 lots for opening and 1 lot for closing; non-futures company members or clients are limited to a maximum daily opening volume of 200 lots. For the lithium carbonate futures LC2706 contract, the trading fee rate is 0.032% of the transaction value, the intraday closing fee rate is 0.032% of the transaction value; the minimum order size per trade is 5 lots for opening and 1 lot for closing; non-futures company members or clients are limited to a maximum daily opening volume of 400 lots. [DCE: Trading Schedule for 2026 Dragon Boat Festival Holiday] DCE announced that the market will be closed from Jun 19 (Friday) to Jun 21 (Sunday) and resume trading on Jun 22 (Monday). There will be no night session on the evening of Jun 18 (Thursday). On Jun 22 (Monday), the call auction for all contracts will take place from 08:55 to 09:00. Night session trading will resume on the evening of Jun 22 (Monday). US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.35% to 99.69. Market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes were pushed back from December this year to January next year, with markets no longer fully pricing in a rate hike this year. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "Fed Watch": The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through June is 98.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.5%. For the meeting through July, the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged is 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 7.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.4%. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the producer price index (PPI) rose 6.5% YoY in May, the largest increase since November 2022 and above the expected 6.4%; it rose 1.1% MoM, also exceeding the market forecast of 0.7%. The data echoed the consumer price index (CPI) released earlier, which also recorded the fastest pace in three years. The combination of these two inflation figures is expected to further cement market expectations that the US Fed will begin raising rates in 2026. With momentum rebuilding in the labor market, taming inflation has become the Fed's top priority for now. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Last week, US initial jobless claims increased slightly, indicating that the labor market retained resilience in early June. The US Department of Labor said on Thursday that in the week ending June 6, initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 229,000, above market expectations. Claims typically rise at the start of summer, as some states allow non-teaching staff to file for unemployment benefits during long school holidays. However, the government's model for stripping out seasonal fluctuations may not fully capture these changes. Last week, the government reported that the economy added jobs for the third straight month in May. The unemployment rate held at 4.3% for the third consecutive month. Some of the strength in job growth may be due to fewer layoffs. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: [ECB Becomes First Major Central Bank to Raise Rates Since Inflation Reemerged] The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years, making it the first major central bank in the developed world to respond to inflation triggered by the Iran war. The bank lifted its main rate from 2% to 2.25%, a move widely expected but also highlighting the challenges faced by major economies due to rising energy prices resulting from the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors widely expect the ECB to raise rates at least once more this year. The decision also made the ECB the first major central bank to tighten monetary policy in response to rising energy prices, which have pushed eurozone inflation above 3%. The US Fed, under Chair Warsh, is expected to hold rates steady next week as Warsh faces a dilemma between Trump's demand for low rates and mounting inflationary pressure; the Bank of England is also expected to keep rates unchanged next week. (Zhitong Finance) Data: Today will see the release of Germany's final May CPI MoM, the UK's April three-month GDP MoM, UK April manufacturing output MoM, UK April seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK April industrial output MoM, France's final May CPI MoM, US June one-year ahead inflation expectations preliminary, and US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary, among others. Also of note: the Huawei Developer Conference will be held from Jun 12-14; Elon Musk's commercial space company SpaceX is scheduled to list on the Nasdaq on Jun 12, 2026. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI crude down 4.01% and Brent crude down 4.26%. Oil prices tumbled after Trump signaled that the US and Iran are about to reach a peace deal. OPEC's monthly report showed that OPEC lowered its forecast for 2026 global oil demand growth to 970,000 bpd (previously expected at 1.17 million bpd). It raised its 2027 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.73 million bpd (previously 1.54 million bpd). OPEC+ (including former member UAE) crude oil production averaged 33.13 million bpd in May 2026, down 190,000 bpd from April, mainly due to lower Iranian output. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Additionally, CME Group announced that, pending regulatory review, it will offer 24/7 (around the clock) trading for new, smaller crude oil and gold contracts. The new crude oil contract will be one-tenth the size of CME's existing micro WTI crude oil futures contract and will launch on August 30. Around-the-clock trading for the company's existing 1-ounce gold futures contract will begin on July 26. Derek Sammann, Global Head of Commodity Markets at CME Group, said: "In the face of geopolitical uncertainty, offering appropriately sized, regulated products available 24/7 enables traders to manage risk whenever news breaks." (Jin10 Data APP)

[SMM Weekly Aluminum Price Review: Expectations for US Fed Rate Hikes Remain Contested, China Accelerates Destocking, Signaling Short-Term Stabilization]

[Price Review] This week (6.8-6.11), silver extended its accelerated decline, with both international and domestic futures markets plunging sharply in tandem. The price center moved notably lower WoW, hitting a new low in nearly two months. The non-farm payrolls data triggered the first heavy sell-off: on June 5, the US May non-farm payrolls report showed an increase of 172,000 jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of 85,000; data for the prior two months were revised up by a combined 93,000, and the unemployment rate held at a historic low of 4.3%. Following the release, market expectations for US Fed rate hikes surged sharply, and silver immediately suffered a heavy blow. On June 10, the US May CPI data came out, up 4.2% YoY and 0.5% MoM. The inflation data further cemented market expectations that the US Fed would maintain high interest rates. Paired with renewed deterioration in the US-Iran conflict, with US forces striking Iran for two consecutive days, the US Fed was expected to have difficulty releasing dovish signals in the near term. Industrial demand side, the premium of standard silver ingots against TD mainstream quotations in the Shanghai market continued to rise WoW; mainstream quotations were generally at parity or with slight premiums, and most transactions settled in the range from parity against SGE TD to a premium of 10 yuan/kg. As silver prices plunged during the week, downstream inquiry activity was relatively active. Inventory side, downstream consumption recovered somewhat WoW, and some smelters showed lower willingness to sell due to falling prices, so social inventory of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen destocked overall. Gold/silver ratio side, as of June 10, the LBMA gold/silver ratio widened from 63.8 a week ago to 67.2, highlighting silver's greater weakness relative to gold under sustained macro pressure. [Important Data] Bearish US May non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000, far exceeding expectations, with labor market resilience surprising to the upside. US May CPI up 4.2% YoY, a three-year high, as inflationary pressures re-emerged. After taking office as Fed Chairman, Warsh set a clear hawkish tone, and subsequent official remarks continued to send tightening signals. India's silver import control policy remained in place, weighing on physical consumption demand. Bullish: Peru's energy crisis persisted, with a national state of emergency until year-end; 12 large mines have already implemented staggered production, and May silver output is expected to decline by 5%–8%. The global supply-demand gap remains, providing some floor support for silver prices. [What to Watch] June 16-17: US Fed June FOMC meeting and Warsh post-meeting press conference (key event) June 18: US May retail sales data June 20: University of Michigan preliminary June consumer sentiment index Key focus: Fed official speeches, latest developments in US-Iran negotiations. [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to maintain a pattern of hovering at lows and seeking a bottom next week, remaining under an overall high macro pressure environment. The Fed's FOMC meeting from June 16 to 17 will be the core focus next week, with the market closely watching Wash's speech content and the Fed's latest guidance on the interest rate path. If the Fed releases a clear signal of rate hikes, silver prices may dip further; if the meeting outcome leans dovish, silver prices could see a rebound from oversold conditions. On the domestic fundamentals side, downstream purchases have slightly recovered, pressure from spot selling at lows in the market has eased somewhat, and the social inventory of spot silver ingots is destocking overall. Since most enterprises remain cautious amid heavy fear of price declines, mainstream traded spot premiums are expected to remain in a range of parity to a 10 yuan/kg premium over SGE TD, and the market is unlikely to quickly shift to higher premiums in the near term.

SMM News, June 11: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell: SHFE copper fell 1.4%, SHFE lead rose 0.68%, and SHFE tin fell 1.08%. SHFE nickel fell 1.49%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.33%. SHFE zinc fell 2.48%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.46%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 1.19%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 3.17%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.81%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 4.19%. Ferrous metals mostly fell: iron ore fell 0.46%, rebar fell 0.28%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.3%, and stainless steel fell 0.14%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.41%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 1.27%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals were down nearly across the board. LME copper fell 0.19%, LME aluminum fell 0.31%, and LME lead rose 0.48%. LME zinc fell 0.45%, LME tin fell 0.77%, and LME nickel fell 0.23%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 1.16%, hitting an intraday low of $4,046.2/oz; COMEX silver fell 2.04%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 4.58%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 3.89%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.77%, while the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 3.7%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping contract was flat at 3,977.5 points. As of 11:43 on June 11, midday moves in selected futures: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract today: high-quality copper was quoted at 240 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,625 yuan/mt, down 585 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,550 yuan/mt, down 585 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory continued to decline today, marking the eighth consecutive drop... Macro Front China: [China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance: In May, China’s power and energy storage battery sales rose 47.4% YoY] The China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance released monthly power battery information for May 2026. In May, total production of power and energy storage batteries in China was 191.7 Gwh, up 4.2% MoM and up 55.2% YoY. In May, China's sales of power batteries and ESS batteries totaled 182.2 GWh, up 11.0% MoM and 47.4% YoY. Of these, power battery sales were 127.0 GWh, accounting for 69.7% of the total, up 16.6% MoM and 45.2% YoY; ESS battery sales were 55.2 GWh, representing 30.3% of the total, down 0.1% MoM but up 52.7% YoY. [Changchun: Building a World-Class Vehicle Manufacturer Group, Supporting FAW and Huawei to Deepen Strategic Cooperation] The 15th Five-Year Plan for the Automobile Industry Development in Changchun (Draft for Comment) has been released for public comment. It mentions providing full support for vehicle enterprises to transform and upgrade, with the aim of building a world-class vehicle manufacturer group. It focuses on supporting vehicle enterprises to develop new energy and energy-efficient vehicles and to establish a clear brand system. It also supports carriers to strengthen strategic cooperation with domestic cross-industry enterprises in the field of intelligent connected vehicles. In particular, it fully supports China FAW in integrating global innovation resources and deepening strategic technological cooperation with Leap Motor, Huawei, DJI, and other enterprises in areas such as new energy vehicles and intelligent connected vehicles. The plan emphasizes the industrialization application and iterative upgrade of key technologies such as all-solid-state batteries, the 'Hongqi No.1' multi-domain fusion chip, the Sinan Intelligent Driving large model, and the Lingxi Cockpit large model. It supports China FAW in deepening strategic cooperation with leading technology enterprises such as Huawei, Baidu, and iFLYTEK, as well as internet platforms, to jointly establish innovation laboratories, focusing on tackling key technologies such as end-cloud integrated intelligent architecture, Level 3 and above autonomous driving, and multimodal interaction, thereby creating a nationally influential source of intelligent connected vehicle innovation. (From WSJ APP) The PBOC conducted 188.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations at an interest rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous operation. No reverse repos matured today. As for the US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.96. The US Labor Department said on Wednesday that the CPI rose 4.2% YoY in May, accelerating from 3.8% in the previous month. This marked the highest year-on-year increase since April 2023, indicating that high energy costs due to the conflict with Iran continue to drive up price pressures. Since the US and Israel launched attacks against Iran in late February, Americans have been feeling the pain of rising oil prices. Rising energy costs have weakened consumer confidence. Currently, there is little sign that oil tankers can obtain sustained permission to transit the Strait of Hormuz, meaning that supply pressure in the global energy market is expected to persist. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the US Fed holding interest rates steady through June was 98.4%, with a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut seen at just 1.6%. The probability of the Fed maintaining the current rate through July stood at 89.1%, a cumulative 25-bp hike at 9.5%, and a cumulative 25-bp cut at 1.5%. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, described the latest CPI report as a “tale of two cities.” While the data was highly consistent with expectations, the overall trend remained negative. This did not alter the policy path for the Fed’s next meeting. However, the prevailing consensus is that the Fed will hold steady, and Fed funds futures are currently pricing in only one hike. In summary, after significant profit-taking pressure on semiconductor stocks and the broader tech sector, these factors were likely instrumental in helping the market recover some lost ground in early trading today. A CICC research note argued that US inflation remains dominated by structural factors, such as energy shocks, with cyclical inflation not yet evident. However, it warned of the risks of a rebound in aggregate demand driven by AI capex expansion and improving employment. On monetary policy, the firm maintained its baseline call of no cuts and no hikes by the Fed this year. It expects the Fed’s stance to stay hawkish, noting that Fed Chair Warsh’s top priority upon taking office would be to rebuild policy credibility, likely demonstrating resolve by signaling stronger expectations for balance sheet reduction rather than hinting at rate hikes. A scenario of “balance sheet reduction first, delayed rate cuts” could not be ruled out, posing sustained pressure on assets that conflict with Warsh’s philosophy, those reliant on liquidity, and those benefiting from dollar over-issuance. (Jin10 Data App) On the Data Front: Releases due today include the Eurozone’s ECB Deposit Facility Rate and ECB Main Refinancing Rate as of June 11, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 6, and the US PPI year-over-year and month-over-month figures for May. Additionally, attention will be on the Ministry of Commerce’s second regular press briefing for June; the ECB’s interest rate decision; and the monetary policy press conference held by ECB President Christine Lagarde. In Crude Oil: As of 11:43, oil prices were up across both benchmarks, with WTI gaining 1.94% and Brent crude rising 1.65%. Prices climbed amid escalating military conflict between the US and Iran. The US Department of Energy (DOE) stated on Wednesday local time that the US is seeking to lend up to 40 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to energy enterprises to help lower fuel prices. This plan is part of a previous agreement to release 172 million barrels from the SPR. To date, the US has lent approximately 133 million barrels of crude oil under that agreement. In March this year, after the US and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28, the US reached an agreement with about 30 member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to jointly release approximately 400 million barrels of strategic reserves to help stabilize the global oil market. At that time, the US SPR inventory stood at 349.2 million barrels, the lowest level since August 2023. Enterprises that borrowed crude oil had to return an equal amount and pay a premium of up to 24% in the form of additional crude oil. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Platinum prices moved sideways during the day, as US May CPI data released last night rose 4.2% YoY (the highest in three years) and 0.5% MoM (in line with expectations). Together with the significantly intensifying US-Iran situation and US military strikes on Iran for two consecutive days, the US Fed is expected to find it difficult to release dovish signals in the near term. In early trading, the most-traded GFEX platinum futures contract PT2608 closed at 412.95 yuan/g, down 0.77%. The negative price spread between the SGE Pt9995 best sell price and GFEX PT2608 narrowed to around 3 yuan/g. On the spot front, mainstream platinum quotations stood at a discount of 2 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract to parity. Mainstream quotation discounts widened slightly compared to yesterday. According to SMM, most suppliers chose to quote at a discount of 1 yuan/g to the GFEX 2608 contract to parity, but downstream bargaining sentiment was strong, making transactions quite difficult. This was mainly due to abundant market shipments and sufficient downstream stockpiles amid the recent continuous decline in platinum prices, leading to cautious procurement sentiment. Strong near-month import data kept domestic platinum and palladium spot supply relatively ample. Suppliers sold actively, while some traders reported that transactions could only be concluded after adjusting prices to a discount of 2 yuan/g against the GFEX contract. Overall, spot platinum market transactions were subdued today.