SMM June 1 Update: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight session saw base metals collectively decline in both domestic and overseas markets. LME copper and LME tin both led the decline with a 0.98% drop. SHFE zinc fell 0.86%, while declines in other metals were relatively small. The alumina front-month contract closed flat at 2,888 yuan/mt, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.26%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals session showed mixed performance. Stainless steel fell 0.74%, and iron ore dropped 0.26%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar both rose around 0.2%. In coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 0.7% and coke rose 0.89%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals session: COMEX gold rose 0.83%, up 1.03% on the week but down 1.29% on the month, marking a third consecutive monthly decline. COMEX silver fell 0.43% overnight last Friday, down 0.81% on the week but up 2.1% on the month. In China, SHFE gold rose 1.61%, down 0.23% on the week and down 1.61% on the month, also recording a third consecutive monthly decline alongside the overseas market. SHFE silver rose 0.64% overnight last Friday, down 1.23% on the week but up 3.08% on the month. As of 8:25 AM on May 30, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: From January to April, total operating revenue of national state-owned and state-holding enterprises fell 0.5% YoY, while total profits rose 1.9% YoY. Specifically, total operating revenue was 26.27 trillion yuan, and total profits were 1.37 trillion yuan. Taxes payable rose 3.9% YoY to 2.12 trillion yuan. At the end of April, the asset-liability ratio of state-owned enterprises was 65.5%, up 0.4 percentage points YoY. (Xinhua News Agency) On May 29, it was reported that in Q1, China's integrated circuit exports reached $72.47 billion, up 77.5% YoY, of which memory product exports reached $45.99 billion, up 174.2% YoY. The surge in memory product exports also transmitted to supply chain service segments. The head of a logistics company said that since the beginning of this year, the company's orders related to memory exports had doubled, with large orders exceeding 100 million yuan per transaction increasing significantly. Industry insiders noted that the explosive growth in memory product exports was driven by both cyclical factors of tight global supply and demand, as well as structural industrial changes including industry chain upgrades and market share gains in China's domestic memory sector. The Deputy Secretary General of the Shenzhen Electronics Chamber of Commerce said that compared with March last year, memory prices had risen nearly tenfold, with some even seeing more than tenfold increases. The rise was mainly due to the significant price increases, which drove up the total (export) value. Domestic brand prices had a significant price spread compared with ex-China brands, making them very competitive. (CCTV Finance) [MIIT and Six Other Departments: Encouraging Equipment Manufacturing in Aerospace, Shipbuilding, Automotive, Robotics and Other Sectors] On May 29, the General Office of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the General Office of the Central Publicity Department, the General Office of MIIT, the General Office of the Ministry of Education, the General Office of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, the General Office of the National Cultural Heritage Administration, and the General Office of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions jointly issued a notice on promoting industrial culture, protecting industrial heritage, and developing industrial tourism. The notice mentioned enriching the supply of industrial tourism products. It encouraged the active development of industrial heritage tourism, promoting the revitalization and utilization of industrial sites through creative design, new business format integration, and facade renovation, and developing new scenarios, formats, and models for industrial tourism. It vigorously promoted "factory tours," encouraging enterprises in equipment manufacturing sectors such as aerospace, shipbuilding, automotive, and robotics, consumer goods industries such as textiles and apparel, arts and crafts, and food processing, as well as e-commerce logistics, to innovatively launch programs including production process observation, simulated operations, hands-on experiences, and product customization, while ensuring production safety and confidentiality requirements, to create themed sightseeing factories. It called for the orderly expansion of smart industrial tourism, supporting the use of BeiDou, artificial intelligence, ultra-high-definition video, virtual reality, autonomous driving, and other digital technologies and equipment to create immersive and intelligent industrial tourism experiences. It supported industrial tourism venues in developing themed commerce, immersive experiences, specialty markets, and other formats to create "industrial tourism+" consumption scenarios. It encouraged localities to launch a batch of high-quality industrial tourism routes and brands with regional and industry characteristics. It encouraged industrial enterprises to strengthen product promotion, expand product sales, and build stronger enterprise brands through industrial tourism. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced adjustments to the daily price limit for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts to 17%, the hedging position trading margin ratio to 18%, and the general position trading margin ratio to 19%; it also adjusted trading limits for related crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts. US dollar: As of last Friday's overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 98.93, down 0.39% on the week but up 0.85% on the month. Optimistic expectations about the extension of the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran weakened safe-haven demand. The US April PCE price index rose 3.8% YoY, the highest level since May 2023, in line with expectations, compared with the previous reading of 3.5%. The US April core PCE price index rose 3.3% YoY, hitting a new high since November 2023, also in line with expectations, compared with the previous reading of 3.2%. Additionally, separate data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.6% in Q1, below the preliminary data. The initial estimate released last month showed growth of 2%. The data indicated that US consumers became more cautious amid cost-of-living pressures and uneven labor market performance. The Middle East conflict pushed up fuel and other raw material prices, with the impact transmitting through the broader economy and sending consumer confidence to record lows. Meanwhile, this inflation data is likely to further reinforce warnings from some US Fed officials that the US Fed would need to consider raising interest rates if price pressures fail to ease. Kevin Warsh, who was just sworn in as Fed Chairman on May 22, may need to convince other officials that inflation expectations can be controlled without rate hikes. (Wallstreetcn) Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated that it was too early to conclude that interest rates need to rise, but he believed the US Fed should keep all policy options on the table. He said it was too early to conclude that an immediate rate hike was needed. He noted the need to continue monitoring economic data and developments in the Middle East conflict before considering whether policy adjustments were necessary. Kashkari pointed out that under both the most optimistic and most pessimistic scenarios, inflation could remain significantly elevated for an extended period. He was closely monitoring this risk, as well as the possibility that inflation expectations could become unanchored. (Wallstreetcn) US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman stated that it was too early to judge the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation, and policymakers needed to look through temporary price shocks. She supported officials retaining language in their statement after last month's policy meeting that hinted at the possibility of further interest rate cuts. She said that as she thought about the future path of monetary policy, she wanted a clearer understanding of the economic impact of the Middle East conflict and the persistence of those effects. As long as credibility in the commitment to achieving the inflation target was maintained, it was appropriate to look through temporarily elevated inflation primarily driven by rising energy prices. She expected the "one-off" impact of tariffs implemented by US President Trump to fade. (Wallstreetcn) Macro front: This week, China is set to release data including China's May RatingDog Manufacturing PMI and China's May RatingDog Services PMI. The US is set to release data including the US May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final, US May ISM Manufacturing PMI, US April construction spending MoM, US April JOLTs job openings, US May ADP employment, US May S&P Global Services PMI final, US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US April factory orders MoM, US May Challenger job cuts, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 30, US May unemployment rate, US May seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US May average hourly earnings YoY, and US May average hourly earnings MoM. The UK is set to release data including UK May Nationwide house price index MoM, UK May Manufacturing PMI final, UK April central bank mortgage approvals, UK May Services PMI final, and UK May Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM. The Eurozone is set to release data including Eurozone May Manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone April unemployment rate, Eurozone May CPI YoY preliminary, Eurozone May CPI MoM preliminary, Eurozone May Services PMI final, Eurozone April PPI MoM, Eurozone April retail sales MoM, Eurozone Q1 GDP YoY revised, and Eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final. Switzerland is set to release data including Swiss April real retail sales YoY, Swiss April trade balance, Swiss May CPI MoM, and Swiss May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. France is set to release data including France May Manufacturing PMI final, France May Services PMI final, France April industrial output MoM, and France April trade balance. Germany is set to release data including Germany May Manufacturing PMI final and Germany May Services PMI final. In addition, Australia Q1 GDP YoY and Canada May employment figures will also be released. Crude oil: As of last Friday's overnight close, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 1.28% and Brent down 0.87%. On a weekly basis, oil prices suffered heavy losses, with WTI down 9.15% and Brent down 8.3%, both recording a second consecutive weekly decline and the largest weekly drop since April. WTI fell 16.47% on the month and Brent fell 16.77% on the month, with WTI posting its largest monthly decline since November 2021 and Brent its largest monthly decline since March 2020. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump said on the 29th that the US and Iran had reached agreement on secondary issues beyond Iran's nuclear program and Strait of Hormuz passage, sending crude oil prices lower. The oil market in May underwent a clear three-phase evolution: Early month (May 1-6): Oil prices pulled back slightly from near four-year highs, but Brent briefly surged to around $114 after OPEC+ announced a modest production increase and shipping attacks, before plunging to the $101-106 range following signals of US-Iran de-escalation. Mid-month (May 7-20): Oil prices oscillated as ceasefire breakdowns alternated with mediation progress, with the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz maintaining an elevated risk premium. Month-end (May 21-29): Driven by reports of a US-Iran agreement in principle to reopen the strait, Brent briefly fell to the $93-100 low range, WTI touched $88-92, and Brent closed around $92. (Wallstreetcn) Nevertheless, analysts emphasized that until the conflict truly ends and the strait resumes normal passage, global crude oil inventories will continue to be depleted by approximately 10 to 14 million barrels per day, and physical market fundamentals remain tight. The decline in oil prices driven by ceasefire expectations reflected more the pricing of future supply recovery rather than a fundamental change in the current supply-demand pattern. (Wallstreetcn) Recent reports revealed that calculations by Goldman Sachs showed global crude oil inventories could fall below the equivalent of 100 days of global demand as early as the end of May. Goldman Sachs estimated that as of the end of April, global crude oil inventories were equivalent to approximately 101 days of global demand, and were expected to decline to 98 days by the end of May. Of this, "visible inventories" observable through satellites and other means were estimated at only 73 days of demand. Reports indicated that currently only a few vessels can pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day, resulting in a daily global crude oil supply loss exceeding 10 million barrels. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM News, May 29: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals rose nearly across the board. SHFE copper was up 0.86%, SHFE aluminum up 0.19%, SHFE lead down 0.45%, SHFE zinc up 1.05%, SHFE tin up 1.31%, and SHFE nickel edged down. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures edged up, the most-traded alumina contract was up 1.08%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract up 0.9%, the most-traded silicon metal contract up 0.12%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract up 0.45%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.77%, rebar up 0.38%, hot-rolled coil up 0.47%, and stainless steel down 0.57%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal edged up, and the most-traded coke contract was up 0.42%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals fell nearly across the board. LME copper was down 0.41%, LME aluminum down 0.68%, LME lead down 0.12%, LME zinc up 0.18%, LME tin down 1.61%, and LME nickel down 0.52%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold was down 0.1% and COMEX silver down 0.26%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract was up 1.59% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract up 1.86%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract was up 0.89% and the most-traded palladium futures contract down 1.45%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight contract was up 0.62%, closing at 3,016 points. As of 11:41 on May 29, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot cargo and fundamentals Aluminum: On May 29, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was quoted at 24,060, up 50, at a discount of 225 to the current-month contract, narrowing by 5. Futures edged up today, and spot cargo in South China was generally stable with slight fall. Absolute prices remained at relatively low levels and inventory saw significant drawdowns. In the morning, most holders continued to hold prices firm for shipments... Macro front China: [ CCPIT: Global Trade Friction Index Remained at High Level in March ] This morning (May 29), the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) held a press conference to release the latest Global Trade Friction Index. Data showed that in March this year, the global trade friction index remained at a high level. Composite index, the global trade friction index stood at 104 in March 2026, remaining at a high level. The value of trade involved in global trade friction measures fell 29.1% YoY but rose 2.8% MoM. Country-specific indices, among the 20 countries (regions) monitored, the top 3 were the US, India, and the EU. The US accounted for the largest amount involved in global trade friction measures, ranking first in 11 out of the past 12 months. Wang Yifei, spokesperson of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT), stated that in terms of industry indices, among the 13 major industries within the monitoring scope, trade friction measures were concentrated in the electronics, chemicals, transportation equipment, and machinery equipment industries, with the electronics industry ranking first in the trade friction index. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Recorded a Net Withdrawal of 30 Billion Yuan for the Day and a Net Injection of 104.4 Billion Yuan for the Week] The PBOC conducted 123 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 153 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 30 billion yuan was achieved for the day. This week, the PBOC conducted 908.9 billion yuan of reverse repo operations. As a total of 500 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 304.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured this week, a net injection of 104.4 billion yuan was achieved for the week. (Jin10 Data APP)(Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.1% to 99.1. Fed's Musalem said on Thursday that, like several other Fed policymakers, he believed the "easing bias" language should have been removed from the post-meeting statement last month, thereby creating the possibility of an interest rate hike. "I supported the rate decision, but I believe the easing bias no longer aligns with the economic outlook and the balance of risks," Musalem said. Blerina Uruci, chief US economist at T. Rowe Price, said the market may still be underestimating the likelihood of further policy tightening by the US Fed. In her report, Uruci noted that since early May, the Iran conflict has lasted longer than expected, oil prices have risen, and US economic growth has remained resilient. While the US Fed can look through a temporary energy shock, sustained oil and import price pressures could affect inflation expectations, wage dynamics, and enterprise pricing behavior. Uruci shifted her base case to the federal funds rate remaining unchanged over the next 12 months. She assigned a 45% probability to rates staying unchanged, a 35% probability of a rate hike by year-end or early 2027, and a 20% probability of an interest rate cut. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 99.4%, with a 0.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 93%, with a 6.9% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike. (Jin10 Data APP) A series of economic data confirmed market concerns about US inflation, while economic activity sent mixed signals. US durable goods orders rose 7.9% in April, easily surpassing the Wall Street Journal's market consensus expectations of 3.5%; however, this figure was largely driven by a surge in non-defense aircraft equipment orders. The second estimate of Q1 GDP growth was unexpectedly revised down from 2% to 1.6%. Weekly initial jobless claims rose more than expected, increasing from an upwardly revised 210,000 to 215,000, suggesting an acceleration in the pace of enterprise layoffs. PCE inflation accelerated as expected, rising from 3.5% to 3.8%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of France's preliminary May CPI m/m, France's final Q1 GDP y/y, Germany's seasonally adjusted May unemployment change, Germany's seasonally adjusted May unemployment rate, Germany's preliminary May CPI m/m, Canada's March GDP m/m, and the US May Chicago PMI, among other data. In addition, attention should be paid to: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin participating in a fireside chat at a conference hosted by Johns Hopkins University Carey Business School; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in an exchange event at Korea University; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivering a speech; 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid delivering a speech; US Fed Governor Bowman delivering a speech; and 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen delivering a speech on the economic outlook. Crude oil: As of 11:41, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 1.26% and Brent down 0.85%. The market expected a possible US-Iran ceasefire extension agreement, putting oil prices under pressure. Meanwhile, the back-and-forth nature of bilateral agreement negotiations also led to heightened volatility in oil prices. The US and Iran are nearing a historic 60-day ceasefire and maritime corridor unblocking agreement, but contradictory statements from senior officials on both sides indicate that core disagreements over Iran's nuclear plan and control of the Strait of Hormuz persist, leaving significant uncertainty over whether a final deal can be reached. According to Xinhua News Agency, US officials stated that US-Iran negotiators had largely reached agreement on the terms of a memorandum of understanding on the 26th, pending approval from senior leadership on both sides. The Iranian side stated it had obtained the necessary approval and was ready to sign. US negotiators briefed Trump on the details of the memorandum of understanding. "The President told the mediators that he would like to take a few days to consider the matter." Meanwhile, according to CCTV News, the Iranian side stated that as of now, Iran has not agreed to any memorandum of understanding, nor has it confirmed to Pakistani mediators that it has approved the memorandum. In addition, Iran explicitly stated that it had not made any commitments on the nuclear issue during negotiations with the US. (Wallstreetcn) US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Oil prices will be lower than pre-conflict levels. Nearly 2,000 ships are waiting for port departures in the Gulf, and supply on the other end of the oil market will be very ample. (Jin10 Data APP) South Korean government officials said on the 28th that the South Korean government decided to ease mandatory oil reserve requirements for private enterprises starting from the 29th to release private oil reserves to the market. The country has not yet decided when to release national oil reserves, keeping them as a "last card" to deal with potential oil crises. Yang Ki-wook, an official from South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, announced on the same day that starting from the 29th, the government will reduce the mandatory oil reserve requirement for private oil companies from 40 days to 20 days, releasing oil reserves equivalent to 20 days of consumption. He stated that this measure was to fulfill commitments made to the International Energy Agency. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM News, May 29: Metals market: Overnight, domestic base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper was up 1.17%. SHFE aluminum was up 0.39%, SHFE lead was down 0.24%. SHFE zinc was up 0.89%. SHFE tin was up 2.66%. SHFE nickel was up 0.61%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract was up 0.63%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract was up 0.39%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore and hot-rolled coil edged down, stainless steel edged up 0.03%, and rebar was down 0.1%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract was down 0.23%, and the most-traded coke futures contract was up 0.08%. Overnight, overseas market metals saw LME base metals rise across the board. LME copper was up 1.71%. LME aluminum was up 1.47%, LME lead was up 0.9%. LME zinc was up 1.44%. LME tin was up 2.47%. LME nickel was up 1.06%. Overnight precious metals : A weaker US dollar drove gold to reverse from losses to gains. Overnight COMEX gold ultimately rose 1.02%, and COMEX silver was up 1.36%. Overnight the most-traded SHFE gold contract was up 1.91%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract was up 2.71%. As of 7:24 AM on May 29, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [The State Council issued the Urban Renewal 15th Five-Year Plan: increasing improvement-oriented housing supply based on city-specific policies and regulating the development of the housing rental market] The State Council issued the Urban Renewal 15th Five-Year Plan. The plan proposed conducting a comprehensive survey of existing urban asset resources, promoting classified disposal of supplied but undeveloped land and projects under construction, and revitalizing idle and inefficient old factory buildings, commercial office spaces, commodity housing, and public housing. It called for accelerating the construction of a new model for real estate development, improving fundamental systems for commodity housing development, financing, and sales. The plan aims to optimize the supply of affordable housing, strengthen housing security for low-income urban families with housing difficulties, better meet the basic housing needs of working-class groups with housing difficulties and modest incomes, and gradually address the transitional housing difficulties of new urban residents and young people. It will increase improvement-oriented housing supply based on city-specific policies and regulate the development of the housing rental market. The plan promotes the transformation and development of real estate developers and their participation in urban renewal. It will deepen the reform of the housing provident fund system, expand its scope of use, strive to meet the diversified housing needs of contributors at different stages, and support flexible employment workers in participating in the housing provident fund system. It will also strengthen and regulate the management of existing urban infrastructure assets. [The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) organized a video conference to arrange and deploy national energy supply assurance work for the summer peak] Recently, the NDRC organized the 2026 national video conference on energy supply assurance for the summer peak, thoroughly studying and implementing the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the CPC and all plenary sessions of the 20th Central Committee, earnestly implementing the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, and arranging energy supply assurance work for the summer peak. The meeting required that all regions and relevant enterprises fully recognize the importance, complexity, and long-term nature of summer peak energy supply assurance tasks, closely monitor key regions and critical periods, conduct rolling assessments, strengthen dispatching, fully implement all supply assurance measures, prepare and utilize supply assurance contingency plans, and ensure safe and stable energy operations during the summer peak. It called for ensuring stable generation and supply, securing the production and supply of primary energy sources such as coal and natural gas, strengthening coal transportation for power generation, and meeting peak power generation demand. It urged continued promotion of efficient fulfillment of medium and long-term contracts for electricity, thermal coal, and natural gas. It emphasized strengthening power equipment operation and maintenance management to achieve stable and reliable output, optimizing power dispatching, and fully leveraging the peak-shaving capacity of various power supply sources. (NDRC) [Two departments jointly lay out systematic plans for AI metrology capacity building] The State Administration for Market Regulation and the NDRC jointly issued the Guidelines for AI Metrology System and Capacity Building (2026 Edition), systematically laying out AI metrology capacity building. The Guidelines are organized around six major sections—basic support, general technology, core technology, metrology technical specifications, metrology services for industry, and intelligent empowerment of metrology—bridging the "last mile" between laboratory innovation and industry application. Focusing on the challenge of "measurement inaccuracy" to make AI more trustworthy, the Guidelines deploy key technology research on AI system internal state monitoring and characterization to address pain points such as algorithmic "black boxes" and poor decision explainability, promoting the establishment of reliable, safe, and trustworthy metrology standards for AI, achieving "measurable, comparable, and traceable" AI technical performance. (CCTV News) [SHFE takes restrictive position-opening regulatory measures against certain clients] SHFE announced that on May 28, 2026, three groups of accounts with actual control relationships exceeded the intraday position-opening trading volume limits on relevant contracts, reaching the exchange's action threshold. The trading behavior of the above clients violated Article 16 of the Shanghai Futures Exchange Measures for the Administration of Abnormal Trading Behavior. The exchange decided to impose restrictive position-opening regulatory measures on the relevant clients in the corresponding products. (Jin10 Data APP) [Chinese automakers surpass the 100 million cumulative production and sales milestone for the first time] On the afternoon of May 28, SAIC delivered its 100 millionth vehicle, marking the birth of the first auto group in Chinese automotive history to surpass 100 million units in cumulative production and sales, in Shanghai. The emergence of China's first "100-million-unit automaker" is a vivid testament to over 70 years of Chinese automotive industry development from nothing to something, from weak to strong, and represents an important milestone for "Made in China." (Xinhua) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.22% to 99.01. According to Wallstreetcn, April PCE inflation came in below expectations MoM, Q1 GDP annualized growth was revised down to 1.6%, new home sales declined sharply, and initial jobless claims also slightly exceeded expectations. Weak US data combined with ceasefire hopes jointly boosted interest rate cut expectations. According to data released Thursday by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the US April PCE price index was 3.8% YoY, in line with expectations, the highest level since May 2023, with the Iran war driving energy prices higher as the main factor. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge—the core PCE price index (excluding food and energy)—rose 3.3% YoY in April, hitting a new high since November 2023. Meanwhile, another BEA report showed that US Q1 GDP annualized growth was revised down to 1.6%, below the initial estimate of 2.0%. The coexistence of weak consumption and elevated inflation made the market's judgment on the Fed's monetary policy direction increasingly complex. (Wallstreetcn) Other currencies: Meeting minutes released Thursday showed that the European Central Bank's decision to hold rates unchanged last month was a "difficult choice" for some policymakers; given signs of persistently high inflation, they found it hard to ignore the shock triggered by energy factors. The ECB noted in the minutes: "Several members indicated that this decision was a difficult choice; had a rate hike proposal been on the agenda for this meeting, they would not have opposed it." The ECB also stated: "Since the last meeting, the value of 'pausing rate hikes to preserve policy options' has diminished; at the same time, the approach of taking no monetary policy action and merely adopting a 'temporary disregard' attitude toward the current situation has become increasingly less appropriate." (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Today will see the release of France's May CPI monthly preliminary reading, France's Q1 GDP annual final reading, Germany's May seasonally adjusted unemployment figures, Germany's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's May CPI monthly preliminary reading, Canada's March GDP monthly rate, and the US May Chicago PMI, among other data. In addition, attention should be paid to: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin participating in a fireside chat at a conference hosted by Johns Hopkins University Carey Business School; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in an exchange event at Korea University; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivering a speech; 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid delivering a speech; Fed Governor Bowman delivering a speech; and 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen delivering a speech on the economic outlook. Crude oil: Thursday saw US-Iran ceasefire rumors flip-flopping, with oil prices swinging wildly throughout the day before closing flat. Reports of a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran sent WTI futures plunging from $91 to near $87—before instantly rebounding to near $90. Ultimately, overnight WTI was down 0.17% and Brent was up 0.16%. (Wallstreetcn) According to CCTV, on May 28 local time, US and Iranian negotiators reached an agreement framework on a 60-day memorandum of understanding, intended to extend the ceasefire and launch negotiations on Iran's nuclear issue, but still requiring final approval from US President Trump. US officials said the terms of the agreement were largely finalised before the 26th, but both sides still needed approval from their respective top leadership. The US side said Iran subsequently indicated it had obtained the necessary authorization and was ready to sign, but Iranian officials had not yet confirmed this. US officials said negotiators had briefed Trump on the final agreement, but he did not immediately approve it, stating he "needed a few days to consider." According to CCTV, on May 28 local time, Saeed Aghalou, a member of the Iranian negotiating delegation's media team, stated that as of now, Iran has not agreed to any memorandum of understanding, nor has it confirmed to Pakistani mediators that it has approved the memorandum. Furthermore, he explicitly stated that Iran made no commitments on nuclear issues during negotiations with the US. A source close to the negotiating team said the text of the potential memorandum of understanding has not been finalised or confirmed. Western media reports claiming that an agreement between Iran and the US has been finalised are not true. Iran has not informed Pakistani mediators that the text has been finalised. Once finalised, Iran will announce the matter to Pakistani mediators and the public. Until then, any claims by Western sources that the matter has been "finalised" are not credible. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said on social media on the 28th that 23 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. (Xinhua) US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed: US crude oil imports from Iraq fell to zero last week, hitting a record low. For the week ending May 22, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 9.063 million barrels to 365.1 million barrels, a decline of 2.42%. Commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.327 million barrels to 442 million barrels, a decline of 0.75%. US commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves for the week ending May 22 was at its lowest since the week of February 27, 2026. US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week ending May 22 was at its lowest since the week of April 12, 2024. (Jin10 Data APP)

[Price Review] Silver prices remained under pressure this week, primarily due to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, sustained expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes within the year, and strong performance in European and US equity markets that continued to divert funds from the precious metals market. On the macro front, newly appointed Fed Chairman Waller officially took office, with his hawkish stance reinforcing market tightening expectations; US-Iran negotiations remained volatile—according to Reuters on May 28, the US military launched a new round of strikes on military facilities within Iran. On the industrial demand side, as silver prices declined during the week, mainstream quotations and spot transaction discounts both narrowed. However, some suppliers had limited willingness to sell due to tax invoice audits and the approaching month-end, combined with downstream consumption still showing no significant improvement. Only some downstream enterprises lacking tax invoice input credit could accept small quantities at high premiums. The spot market overall exhibited sluggish trading on both sides, with inventory continuing to accumulate. Gold/silver ratio side, as of May 27, the LBMA gold/silver ratio rebounded to 62x, continuing to widen WoW. [Key Data] Bearish Waller officially assumed the role of Fed Chairman, with a clearly hawkish tone. US-Iran negotiations saw major reversals, causing market expectations to become chaotic. On May 25, Iran stated it had reached consensus with the US on most issues, but on May 28, Trump publicly stated that "Iran negotiations have made no progress." Speculative funds withdrew on a large scale—COMEX silver non-commercial net long positions declined sharply for three consecutive weeks, with cumulative reductions exceeding 25,000 contracts. Previously inflowing speculative funds concentrated on closing positions, amplifying the magnitude of silver's price decline. Bullish: Peru's energy crisis continued, with a national state of emergency extending to year-end. Twelve large mines have implemented staggered production schedules, and May silver production is expected to decline 5%-8%, with the global supply-demand gap persisting. [Upcoming Focus] May 29: US May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (final) June 3: US May ISM Manufacturing PMI June 5: US May Non-Farm Payrolls Report June 12: US May CPI Data Key focus: Fed officials' speeches, latest developments in US-Iran negotiations, execution of production restrictions at Peruvian mines [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to hover at lows in a bottoming pattern next week, with core variables being Fed officials' speeches and the direction of US-Iran negotiations. Current market sentiment is extremely cautious, with macro headwinds remaining the dominant factor, and the previous supply-side speculation narrative having largely faded. Operationally, a wait-and-see approach is recommended, pending clear stabilization signals. China fundamentals side, downstream buying sentiment remains cautious, overall consumption is still sluggish, and spot silver ingot social inventory continues to accumulate. However, as silver's absolute price has declined and bank floor purchase price discounts have narrowed, mainstream spot transaction discounts are expected to contract slightly to a range of 20-0 yuan/kg discount to the SGE TD price.

SMM May 28: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper dropped 1%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.08%, SHFE lead declined 0.99%, SHFE zinc lost 0.54%, SHFE tin slid 1.05%, and SHFE nickel fell 1.07%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.82%, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.14%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract gained 0.27%. The most-traded silicon metal contract dropped 0.64%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.9%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore edged up, rebar and hot-rolled coil each gained less than 0.5%, and stainless steel fell 0.5%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.09%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.44%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:39, LME metals fell nearly across the board. LME copper dropped 0.2%. LME aluminum and LME lead both fell 0.15%. LME zinc was flat at $3,507.5/mt. LME tin declined 0.55%. LME nickel lost 0.45%. Precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 1.47% and COMEX silver dropped 2.6%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 2.75%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract dropped 4.97%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 3.78%, and the most-traded palladium futures declined 3.75%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.22% to 2,995.5 points. As of 11:39 on May 28, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,695 yuan/mt, down 1,395 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,590 yuan/mt, down 1,395 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased again, mainly driven by rising arrivals and weakening consumption... Macro Front China: [CSRC Vice Chairman Liu Haoling: Foreign investors' willingness to allocate to China's quality assets continues to rise] On May 28, the 2026 Global Investor Conference hosted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was held in Shenzhen. CSRC Vice Chairman Liu Haoling stated in his address that China's capital market reforms integrating investment and financing had progressed steadily and continued to deliver results, overall market valuations were within a reasonable range, and foreign investors' willingness to allocate to China's quality assets continued to rise. In his address, Liu Haolin stated that China is a major contributor to and stabilizing anchor for global economic growth, and a fertile ground for foreign enterprises to invest and do business. Since the beginning of this year, foreign capital has been flowing steadily into China's stock market through various channels. As of now, various overseas investors hold over 4 trillion yuan in A-share tradable market capitalization, making them important participants in China's capital market. (Wallstreetcn) PBOC conducted 101.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with the operation rate at 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 100 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.25% to 99.48. Persistently high energy prices intensified market concerns about a resurgence in inflation. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee on Thursday further reinforced his warning: rising market expectations for AI's potential to boost productivity could push up inflation and force the US Fed and other central banks to raise interest rates. Goolsbee said: "The more hype there is about future productivity, the higher rates may need to go to prevent the economy from overheating. More importantly, facing supply shocks in the short term—whether from oil prices, supply chain disruptions, or other factors—makes the problem even worse." The above remarks further expanded on the views Goolsbee first publicly raised earlier this month. He questioned the notion that AI could suppress inflation and thereby create room for central banks to cut interest rates—a view championed by many officials in the Trump administration as well as new US Fed Chair Warsh. In the 1990s, as computers became more widely adopted, US productivity rose unexpectedly, driving rapid economic growth without triggering inflation. However, Goolsbee argued that if productivity gains are anticipated by the market, the situation would be different. Markets could trigger a spending boom in advance, pushing up prices before actual productivity gains materialize. US Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said he expected inflation to cool later this year as the effects of tariffs and rising energy costs fade, but he warned that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. In remarks prepared for delivery at a Bank of Japan-hosted conference in Tokyo on Thursday morning, Jefferson said he is watching for signs that rising energy costs from the Iran war are weighing on consumer spending. He also warned that he continued to see signs of weakness in the labour market. Jefferson reiterated his view that the central bank's current policy stance was well positioned to respond to any developments. Jefferson stated, "I am not prejudging the next meeting and look forward to engaging with my colleagues on the best policy to achieve our dual mandate goals." (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: The Bank of Korea's six-month dot plot showed that among 21 dots, 7 were at 2.75%, 10 at 3%, 2 at 3.25%, and 2 at 2.5%. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Data: Data to be released today include the eurozone May industrial confidence index, eurozone May economic sentiment index, Canada Q1 current account, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 23, US April core PCE price index YoY, US April personal spending MoM, US Q1 real GDP annualized QoQ revised, US April core PCE price index MoM, and US April durable goods orders MoM. In addition, attention should be paid to: the ECB publishing the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams delivering a keynote speech at a conference co-organized by the Central Bank of Iceland; 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem delivering a speech. Crude oil: As of 11:39, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 3.1% and Brent up 3.07%. US-Iran tensions escalated again, driving crude oil higher. US President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with negotiations with Iran, and the White House subsequently denied Iranian media reports of progress in peace talks, quickly dampening earlier market optimism about a ceasefire agreement. The US-Iran conflict entered its fourth month, with ceasefire prospects remaining uncertain. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump said at a cabinet meeting at the White House on the 27th that the US and Iran had not yet reached a deal and the US was "dissatisfied" with this, fully rejecting the potential mechanism for joint US-Iran-Oman management of the Strait of Hormuz. (Wallstreetcn) The American Petroleum Institute (API) released data showing that US crude oil and gasoline inventories both declined last week. US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 22 was -2.819 million barrels, versus expectations of -4.367 million barrels and a prior value of -9.11 million barrels. US API gasoline inventory for the week ending May 22 was -3.199 million barrels, versus expectations of -2.896 million barrels and a prior value of -5.795 million barrels. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM May 28 News: Metals market: Overnight, domestic market base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper fell 0.9%. SHFE aluminum fell 1.24%, SHFE lead fell 0.81%. SHFE zinc fell 0.48%. SHFE tin fell 0.64%. SHFE nickel fell 0.48%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.17%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract fell 1.02%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore fell 0.13%, stainless steel rose 0.23%, rebar rose 0.32%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.36%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract rose 2.13%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 1.88%. Overnight, overseas market metals saw broad declines in LME base metals. LME copper fell 0.69%. LME aluminum fell 1.28%, LME lead fell 0.72%. LME zinc fell 0.58%. LME tin rose 0.08%. LME nickel fell 0.63%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.03%, COMEX silver fell 2.25%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.26%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.28%. As of 7:11 am on May 28, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Li Qiang: Accelerate the construction of commodity resource allocation hubs to provide reliable support for coordinating development and security] Li Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, conducted a survey in Zhoushan and Ningbo, Zhejiang Province from May 25 to 27. He emphasized the need to thoroughly implement General Secretary's important remarks and instructions on building a major-country reserve system, adhere to government leadership, social co-construction, and diversified complementarity, manage commodity and important material reserve adjustments, strengthen strategic security, macroeconomic regulation, and emergency response functions, continuously enhance industry chain and supply chain resilience, and accelerate the construction of commodity resource allocation hubs to provide reliable support for coordinating development and security. (Xinhua News Agency) [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Strengthen top-level design of automotive standards system] According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the 2026 automotive standardization system has been completed. This system covers many aspects, strengthens the top-level design of the standards system, and empowers high-quality development of the automotive industry. In promoting innovative development in emerging fields, it focuses on accelerating standard development and iteration in areas such as driving automation, connected functions and applications, information security and data security, resource management and information services, automotive software, automotive data, and "vehicle-road-cloud integration." It efficiently carries out the development and revision of standards for key system components such as automotive electronics and automotive chips. In addition, targeting future industry directions such as automotive artificial intelligence and new-form vehicles, it conducts forward-looking standard breakthrough actions and advances standard planning and layout. (CCTV News) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.08% to 99.23. US Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said he expected inflation to cool later this year as the effects of tariffs and rising energy costs fade, but warned that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. In prepared remarks for a speech at a Bank of Japan-hosted conference in Tokyo on Thursday morning, Jefferson said he was watching for signs that rising energy costs from the Iran war were dragging on consumer spending. He also warned that he continued to see signs of labour market weakness. Jefferson reiterated his view that the central bank's current policy stance is well positioned to respond to any developments. Jefferson said, "I am not prejudging the next meeting and look forward to engaging with my colleagues on the best policy to achieve our dual mandate goals." According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June is 99.9%, with a 0.1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through July is 91.4%, with an 8.5% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike. US Fed Governor Lisa Cook said in a speech at a Stanford University event on Wednesday local time that inflation is moving in the wrong direction, and she is prepared to raise interest rates if this continues. While Cook said she currently favors keeping borrowing costs unchanged and expects price growth to cool again in the coming months, her remarks align her with many US Fed officials' view that accelerating inflation is now a bigger policy concern than the labour market. Cook said: "I want to be clear about my risk assessment: risks remain tilted toward higher inflation." Cook said that inflation above the US Fed's 2% target for five years poses the risk of price pressures becoming embedded in price and wage-setting behavior. "Therefore, if the expected inflation pullback does not materialize in a timely manner, I am prepared to raise interest rates," she said. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Data to be released today include the eurozone May industrial confidence index, eurozone May economic sentiment index, Canada Q1 current account, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 23, US April core PCE price index YoY, US April personal spending MoM, US Q1 real GDP annualized QoQ revised, US April core PCE price index MoM, and US April durable goods orders MoM. In addition, attention should be paid to: the ECB publishing the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams delivering a keynote speech at a conference co-organized by the Central Bank of Iceland; 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem delivering a speech. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI down 4.77% and Brent down 3.92%. The prospects for US-Iran talks remain uncertain. After the decline on the 27th, WTI crude oil edged up at the open on May 28, as the US and Iran still have disagreements on how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said he was "not satisfied" with the negotiations. The White House denied Iranian reports of a draft agreement that said Iran and Oman would oversee strait shipping. Despite the challenges, crude oil prices are still on track for a second consecutive weekly decline due to optimism that the warring parties can at least reach an interim agreement. The sticking points in these protracted negotiations include Iran's desire to retain control over the Strait of Hormuz and the fate of the country's nuclear program. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CCTV News, earlier on Wednesday, Iranian media disclosed a "preliminary informal document" regarding the framework of a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US, covering issues such as the Strait of Hormuz, regional military deployments, and future agreement arrangements. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil and gasoline inventories both declined last week. US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 22 was -2.819 million barrels, versus expectations of -4.367 million barrels and a prior value of -9.11 million barrels. US API gasoline inventory for the week ending May 22 was -3.199 million barrels, versus expectations of -2.896 million barrels and a prior value of -5.795 million barrels. (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM News, May 27: Metals market: As of the midday close, most domestic base metals rose, while SHFE copper edged down. SHFE aluminum rose 0.8%. SHFE lead rose 0.33%, SHFE zinc fell 0.72%. SHFE tin rose 0.63%. SHFE nickel rose 1.91%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.52%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.96%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.09%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.47%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 2.17%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.19%, rebar fell 0.69%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.44%, and stainless steel rose 1.49%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.77%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:38, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.6%. LME aluminum rose 0.39%. LME lead rose 0.05%. LME zinc rose 0.4%. LME tin rose 1.24%. LME nickel rose 0.32%. Precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 0.08%, COMEX silver rose 0.63%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.05%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.73%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.15%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.98%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 0.77%, closing at 2,949 points. As of 11:38 on May 27, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Cargo and Fundamentals Alumina: SMM statistics show that the scale of alumina projects under construction and under planning in Guinea has exceeded... Macro Front China: [NBS: From January to April, profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises rose 18.2%; non-ferrous metals sector profits surged 117.8%] NBS data showed that from January to April, total profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises reached 2.44 trillion yuan, up 18.2% YoY. From January to April, the mining sector posted profits of 361.84 billion yuan, up 26.0% YoY; the manufacturing sector posted profits of 1.80 trillion yuan, up 20.4%; and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector posted profits of 272.01 billion yuan, down 1.9%. From January to April, profitability of major industries was as follows: non-ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing (up 1.2x YoY), computer, communications, and other electronic equipment manufacturing (up 1.1x), chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing (up 73.4%), coal mining and washing (up 21.0%), textile (up 11.2%), petroleum and natural gas extraction (up 8.1%), petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing (turned from loss to profit), general equipment manufacturing (down 0.6%), electricity and heat production and supply (down 2.5%), special equipment manufacturing (down 7.2%), electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing (down 11.4%), agricultural and sideline food processing (down 11.8%), automobile manufacturing (down 16.8%), non-metallic minerals products (down 50.7%), and ferrous metals smelting and rolling processing (down 51.5%). [PBOC Conducts 177.6 Billion Yuan in Open Market Reverse Repo Operations with Net Injection of 127.6 Billion Yuan in a Single Day] The PBOC conducted 177.6 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. 50 billion yuan in reverse repos matured today. US Dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 99.1. According to Nikkei, Fed's Kashkari stated that the US Fed may implement a "series" of interest rate hikes in response to inflation concerns triggered by the Middle East situation. During the late-April FOMC meeting, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Kashkari and two other officials dissented against the decision to include language in the Fed's statement hinting at future monetary easing. In a written interview, Kashkari said: "I think the next rate adjustment could be an interest rate cut, or it could be a rate hike." He used this to express his differing views. Kashkari said the outcome would depend on inflation trends, which depend on whether the Strait of Hormuz would reopen soon or remain effectively closed due to further damage to infrastructure in the region, the latter of which would exacerbate the global energy shortage. Kashkari said the concern was that long-term inflation expectations of enterprises and households "could become unanchored." He said the FOMC "may well need to respond forcefully," and rate hikes, or even a series of rate hikes, could be necessary measures. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 99.2%, with a 0.8% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 88.6%, with an 11.3% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 0% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report noted that the resilience of the global economy is being tested by the Middle East conflict, while a glimmer of hope for the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has emerged. The US economy is likely to continue growing mildly but unevenly this year, the pace of the EU's weak recovery is being delayed, and Japan's private-sector demand is inevitably subject to disruptions from energy shortages. High oil prices are already pushing up global inflation, with headline inflation rates in Europe and the US likely to fluctuate at highs this year, while Japan's headline inflation rate may continue its mild performance. The US Fed may not cut interest rates at all this year, while potential rate hikes by the European and Japanese central banks are imminent, and the "unrestrained" fiscal stances of Japanese and European political circles could constitute a source of market risk this year. We maintain our view that US equities will outperform US Treasuries and the US dollar index will find support, while gold prices are expected to break out of their current range as tail risks to inflation dissipate. Other currencies: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, opting to continue observing the impact of the global energy shock on domestic consumption and medium-term inflation. The RBNZ's Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25%, in line with market expectations. The RBNZ's latest projections show a rising likelihood of at least two 25bp rate hikes before year-end. In its post-meeting statement, the RBNZ said: "Taken together, the OCR will likely need to be raised sooner and by more than projected in the February Monetary Policy Statement." "The pace of hikes will depend on the relative impact of persistent wage and pricing behavior versus weakening economic activity on medium-term inflation pressures." Following the statement, NZD/USD rose. (Jin10 Data) Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda Kazuo said vigilance is needed regarding the impact of surging oil prices on underlying inflation trends, but did not clearly signal how this factor would influence next month's policy meeting outcome. Ueda said on Wednesday: "Japan's experience shows that oil price shocks are never just oil price shocks; they actually test the entire inflation mechanism." Reviewing the impact of oil crises since the 1970s, he noted: "We are in fact experiencing the fifth oil price shock." "If a temporary shock alters wages, inflation expectations, and corporate pricing behavior, it may evolve into persistent inflation." Ueda did not directly signal the future policy path, but as his remarks reflected concerns over the impact of high oil prices, markets may further strengthen speculation about the prospect of a rate hike at the BoJ's June meeting. Overnight swap market pricing shows traders currently assign roughly a 75% probability to a 25bp rate hike by the BoJ next month. (Jin10 Data) Australia's April core inflation rate remained above the upper bound of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range, further reinforcing market expectations that the RBA will maintain its hawkish stance after consecutive rate hikes this year. Data on Wednesday showed the closely watched core inflation gauge—the annual trimmed mean inflation rate excluding volatile items—rose 3.4% YoY, in line with economists' expectations. The RBA targets keeping inflation near the midpoint of its 2%-3% target band. Interest rate swap markets currently price the probability of another rate hike in August at around 50%, down from 64% before the data release. Under the dual pressure of high borrowing costs and surging fuel prices driven by the Iran war, the Australian economy is beginning to show signs of weakness. The unemployment rate in April rose to a four-and-a-half-year high, while approximately one-third of enterprises reported declining revenue over the past four weeks, and half reported rising operating costs. The market widely expects that after raising rates at all three meetings earlier this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in June. Sue-Ellen Luke, head of price statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, said: "Automotive fuel prices currently remain 23.5% higher than before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. The impact of rising oil prices is also reflected in goods and services with higher transportation and logistics costs." (Jin10 Data) Data: Today will see the release of the RBNZ interest rate decision as of May 27, Switzerland's May ZEW Investor Confidence Index, US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 9, and the US May Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, among other data. In addition, attention should be paid to: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo delivering a speech at a monetary policy conference hosted by the BOJ; the RBNZ releasing its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement; RBNZ Governor Breman holding a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: As of 11:38, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 2.03% and Brent down 1.75%. Oil prices fell in Asian early trading as traders weighed the prospects of a US-Iran deal. Front-month Brent crude declined. Despite a resurgence in hostilities, hopes remain for an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran signaled that the attacks would not derail negotiations, while US Secretary of State Rubio said it would take a few days to finalise a potential deal. Uncertainty remains high. Kieran Tomkins of Capital Economics noted that while crude oil options data suggest investors expect prices to pull back over the next three months, their conviction is unusually low. He said options indicate investors see a swift resumption of supply through the strait as the most likely outcome, but their implied expectations suggest a 37% probability that oil prices will exceed $100 per barrel in three months. (Zhitong Finance) On the evening of May 26 local time, the Public Relations Department of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy announced that over the past 24 hours, 25 vessels including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz with permission, under the coordination and security guarantee of the IRGC Navy. Meanwhile, the IRGC Navy stated that it is exercising "effective and authoritative" control over the Strait of Hormuz, and any act of aggression will be met with a severe response. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM News, May 26: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell. SHFE copper dropped 0.3%. SHFE aluminum edged down. SHFE lead fell 0.15%, and SHFE zinc rose 0.52%. SHFE tin gained 1.37%. SHFE nickel declined 1.08%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.26%, and the most-traded alumina futures rose 5.08%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures dropped 1.83%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.52%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.53%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore dropped 1.82%, rebar fell 1.99%, hot-rolled coil declined 1.81%, and stainless steel edged down 0.03%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 6.05%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.54%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:45, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper gained 0.26%. LME aluminum edged up. LME lead rose 0.1%. LME zinc climbed 0.75%. LME tin rose 1.3%. LME nickel fell 1.09%. Precious metals, as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.46%, and COMEX silver gained 1.4%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract edged up 0.07%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract dipped 0.02%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.44%, and the most-traded palladium futures dropped 0.52%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 0.41%, closing at 2,931.5 points. As of 11:45 on May 26, midday futures performance (selected): Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 160 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,010 yuan/mt, down 735 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,900 yuan/mt, down 745 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory ended a four-consecutive-day increase and resumed declining today... Macro Front China: [MOFCOM: China will attract more multinational companies to locate R&D and high-end manufacturing operations in China] The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the 2026 Qingdao Summit of Multinational Corporation Leaders. Vice Minister of Commerce Yan Dong stated that China will optimize the investment structure and activate new momentum for foreign investment. The Ministry of Commerce issued and implemented the 2025 edition of the *Catalogue of Industries for Encouraging Foreign Investment*, with a net increase of 205 encouraged categories, focusing on areas such as advanced manufacturing, modern services, high-tech, and energy conservation and environmental protection, providing policy support for foreign-invested enterprises to expand into high-end and emerging fields. Going forward, more multinational companies will be attracted to place their R&D and high-end manufacturing operations in China, optimizing the structure of foreign investment in China and strengthening innovation momentum. [Huang Guanglie, Deputy Secretary General of Guangzhou Municipal Government: Confident in Further Consolidating the Stabilizing and Improving Trend of Guangzhou's Property Market] On May 26, Guangzhou held a press conference on the series of supporting documents for the *Implementation Opinions on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market*. Huang Guanglie, Deputy Secretary General of Guangzhou Municipal Government, stated that going forward, Guangzhou will continue to improve the two major systems of the housing market and housing security, and continuously optimize property market regulation measures. Departments including the Municipal Bureau of Planning and Natural Resources, the Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the Municipal Housing Provident Fund Center have issued supporting detailed rules on matters such as land supply, special subsidies for "selling old and buying new," and "commercial-to-provident fund loan conversion." Huadu District responded swiftly by launching the "Huadu Eight Measures" as specific initiatives. State-owned enterprises represented by Guangzhou Anju Group are accelerating the launch of pilot work on the acquisition and revitalization of second-hand housing. It is believed that as these detailed rules are fully implemented and all sectors work in coordination, we are confident in further consolidating the stabilizing and improving trend of Guangzhou's property market. (Jin10 Data APP) [Guangzhou: Removing Restrictions on "Only Housing in the City" and the Number of Provident Fund Loan Uses] On May 26, 2026, the Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued the normative document *Implementation Measures for Converting Commercial Personal Housing Loans to Housing Provident Fund Personal Housing Loans in Guangzhou (Provisional)*. It proposed expanding the scope of commercial loan banks, removing the restriction that "the original commercial loan bank must be a housing provident fund entrusted bank," and allowing commercial loans from non-housing provident fund handling banks to be converted into pure housing provident fund loans. Requirements on loan types, terms, and provident fund contribution periods were relaxed. For commercial-to-provident fund conversion handled by housing provident fund loan handling banks, applicants whose convertible provident fund loan amount is not enough to fully repay the principal and interest of the original commercial loan may choose to convert to a combined loan. The requirement for opening an account and accumulating housing provident fund contributions was reduced from "60 months" to "36 months." The original commercial loan disbursement period was shortened from "more than 3 years" to "more than 2 years." The restrictions on "only housing in the city" and the number of provident fund loan uses were removed, no longer requiring that "the mortgaged property is the applicant's family's only housing in the city," and supporting applications for first and second improved housing. Applicants who have "never used or have only used housing provident fund loans once" are also eligible for the commercial-to-provident fund loan conversion, and are no longer restricted by the "never used housing provident fund loans" requirement. (Jin10 Data) [Xiongan New Area: Maximum Housing Provident Fund Loan Raised to 800,000 Yuan] The Xiongan New Area Housing Management Center issued a notice on optimizing and adjusting housing provident fund withdrawal and loan policies. According to the notice, for contributing employees who meet the rental withdrawal conditions in the new area but have not filed their housing rental contracts, the maximum annual withdrawal amount has been raised to 17,000 yuan; for those who have filed their housing rental contracts via the "Hebei Xiongan New Area Housing Rental Information Service Platform," the maximum annual withdrawal amount has been raised to 25,000 yuan. For contributing employees who purchase self-occupied housing in the new area and apply for a housing provident fund loan, the maximum loan amount has been raised to 800,000 yuan. For employees of Beijing-relocated entities whose housing provident fund contributions are based in the new area and who purchase self-occupied housing in the new area, the maximum housing provident fund loan amount has been raised to 1.2 million yuan. For multi-child families with two or more children who purchase self-occupied housing in the new area and apply for a housing provident fund loan, the maximum loan amount is increased by 200,000 yuan. Employee families who have only one fully repaid housing provident fund loan record nationwide and own no property in the new area are eligible for the first-home housing provident fund loan policy. (Xiongan Provident Fund) [PBOC's Reverse Repo Operations Result in a Net Injection of 248.5 Billion Yuan on the Day] The PBOC conducted 249 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, this resulted in a net injection of 248.5 billion yuan on the day. US dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index rose 0.07% to 99.05. US Secretary of State Rubio, who concluded his visit to India, today (May 26) commented to the media on the so-called "self-defensive strikes" carried out by US forces this morning across multiple locations in southern Iran, stating that the Strait of Hormuz "must remain open, no matter what." Rubio said, "The (Hormuz) Strait must be open; it will eventually open in some way; it must be open." He also stated that the agreement expected to be reached with Iran may still require "a few more days" of negotiations over wording. (CCTV International News) According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through June is 99.9%, with a 0.1% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut. The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through July is 90.3%, with a 9.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike and a 0.1% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut. (Jin Shi Data) Other currencies: Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino Ryozo emphasized that timely policy adjustments were crucial for maintaining market participants' confidence amid the recent sell-off in Japanese government bonds. Himino Ryozo said on Tuesday: "Regarding monetary policy and long-term interest rates, we believe it is very important to adjust the degree of monetary easing at an appropriate pace in response to future economic, price, and financial conditions, thereby maintaining market confidence that inflation will be properly controlled." The remarks appeared to suggest that the BOJ was open to raising interest rates in the near term. Himino Ryozo and other officials, including BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo, recently emphasized the need to maintain a responsible attitude toward financial markets, and the market widely expected the BOJ to raise interest rates at its meeting next month. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae last week subtly released signals that she hoped the BOJ would maintain policy stability, as she was trying to mitigate the economic impact of the Iran war. Himino Ryozo said: "The BOJ will strive to implement policy appropriately to maintain such market confidence and achieve the price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner." (Jin Shi Data) DBS Group Research FX strategist Philip Wee said the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was very likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its Wednesday meeting, but the overall stance would be hawkish. "The RBNZ may prioritize above-target inflation over weak GDP growth and high unemployment." Wee also said that a rate hike on Wednesday could not be ruled out, and therefore NZD/USD was expected to return to the upper half of this year's 0.5700–0.6100 trading range. (Jin Shi Data) Data: Data to be released today include the UK May CBI retail sales balance, US March FHFA House Price Index MoM, US March S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index YoY (non-seasonally adjusted), US May Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, and US May Dallas Fed Business Activity Index. In addition, attention should also be paid to Xiaomi Group's earnings call. Crude oil: As of 11:45, oil prices in the two markets diverged, with WTI down 5.33% and Brent up 1.62%. The notable divergence between the two reflected a high degree of uncertainty in the market's assessment of the situation. (Wallstreetcn) US Central Command said the US and Israel struck multiple Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, hours after Trump said negotiations with Tehran on an interim deal were making progress. The renewed fighting underscores the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. The market is closely watching strikes that could derail negotiations. (Jin10 Data) According to Al Arabiya, a draft US-Iran agreement has been reached. The draft allows free passage through the Strait of Hormuz and the clearing of mines; navigation through the Strait of Hormuz must be restored within 30 days. The agreement stipulates that the US commits to easing the blockade on Iranian ports; the agreement allows Iran to sell and export oil; the agreement will provide specific sanctions exemptions for Iranian oil exports, and will consider easing sanctions on Iranian oil in phases, depending on Iran's implementation of its commitments. The agreement provides for continued nuclear negotiations to reach a long-term consensus. Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM May 26 News: Metals Market: Overnight, domestic base metals generally rose. SHFE copper was up 0.39%. SHFE aluminum was down 0.29%, and SHFE lead was down 0.27%. SHFE zinc was up 0.62%. SHFE tin was up 0.52%. SHFE nickel was up 0.42%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract was up 4.82%, while the most-traded casting aluminum continuous contract was down 0.26%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore was down 0.94%, stainless steel was up 0.13%, rebar was down 0.75%, and hot-rolled coil was down 0.73%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract was up 9.05%, and the most-traded coke futures contract was up 5.04%. Overseas metals: The London Metal Exchange (LME) was closed on May 25 for the UK bank holiday and will resume trading on May 26. Overnight Precious Metals : COMEX gold was up 1.11%, and COMEX silver was up 2.89%. Overnight, SHFE gold continuous contract was up 0.71%, and SHFE silver continuous contract was up 1.62%. UBS Group analyst Staunovo Giovanni noted: "Currently, financial asset movements are heavily influenced by oil prices, and gold is naturally no exception." Staunovo further explained: "Falling oil prices are bullish for gold, as the market expects lower oil prices to impact the US Fed's monetary policy." He added that this trend is expected to continue in the near term. (Jin10 Data) As of 7:17 AM on May 26, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [National Energy Administration: As of End of April, China's Cumulative Installed Power Generation Capacity Reached 3.99 Billion kW, Up 14.2% YoY] The National Energy Administration released national electricity statistics for January-April. As of the end of April, China's cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 3.99 billion kW, up 14.2% YoY. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.25 billion kW, up 26.2% YoY; wind power installed capacity was 660 million kW, up 22.0% YoY. From January to April, the cumulative average utilization hours of national power generation equipment were 925 hours, down 84 hours from the same period last year. US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.34% to 98.98. The US dollar and oil prices pulled back as the market hoped for a peace deal to end the Iran conflict, easing concerns about rising inflation and interest rates "staying high for longer." Despite both the US and Iran downplaying the likelihood of a near-term deal, market sentiment remained optimistic. Additionally, according to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 99.9%, with a 0.1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 90.3%, with a 9.6% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike and a 0.1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data) BlackRock stated that under new US Fed Chair Warsh's leadership, the US Fed may have sufficient reason to support an interest rate cut rather than a hike. Navin Saigal, BlackRock's Asia-Pacific head of global fixed income, responded to a question about the probability of a rate hike under Warsh's tenure: "If I had to choose between a hike and a cut, I think there are actually ample factors to support a cut." "Looking ahead, the labour market is expected to face some pressure, which may signal that the US Fed will either hold steady or cut interest rates." Saigal's remarks contrasted with the prevailing expectations of bond investors, who bet that Warsh would prioritize safeguarding the US Fed's credibility in fighting inflation over accommodating US President Trump's calls for lower interest rates. Current pricing shows the market is nearly certain the US Fed will raise interest rates before December. On the macro front: Data to be released today include the UK May CBI retail sales balance, US March FHFA house price index MoM, US March S&P/CS 20-city non-seasonally adjusted home price index YoY, US May Conference Board consumer confidence index, and US May Dallas Fed business activity index. In addition, attention should be paid to: Xiaomi Group's earnings call. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures fell sharply, with WTI crude down 6.52% and Brent crude down 6.56%. Rising expectations of US-Iran peace talks drove crude oil prices sharply lower. According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump posted on social media on Monday the 25th that negotiations with Iran were progressing well, emphasizing that either "a great and meaningful deal" would be reached with Iran, or "there would be no deal." According to CCTV News, an Iranian delegation appeared in Qatar on Monday the 25th, including senior members of Tehran's negotiating team, which was viewed by the US side as a positive signal. Bloomberg's Garfield Reynolds noted that US crude oil inventories were declining at an unprecedented pace, highlighting the importance of a US-Iran deal this weekend for global markets. However, both the US and Iran remained cautious about the prospects for a deal. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that many issues in the potential bilateral memorandum had reached preliminary conclusions, but this did not mean Tehran was close to signing an agreement. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM News, May 25: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper gained 1.06%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.47%. SHFE lead rose 0.06%, SHFE zinc rose 0.34%. SHFE tin gained 1.22%. SHFE nickel rose 0.23%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.54%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.37%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 0.58%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 1.07%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.48%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore gained 0.25%, rebar rose 1.23%, hot-rolled coil rose 1.03%, and stainless steel edged up. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract and the most-traded coke contract hit the daily limit up with gains of 7.97% and 7.99%, respectively. Overseas base metals: The London Metal Exchange (LME) was closed on May 25 for the UK bank holiday and will resume trading on May 26. Precious metals: as of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 0.86% and COMEX silver gained 2.44%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures rose 0.64% and the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 2.27%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.2% and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.01%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 3.36% to 2,901 points. As of 11:38 on May 25, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, #1 copper cathode spot prices in North China against the front-month contract were reported at an average discount of 360 yuan/mt to a discount of 280 yuan/mt. The average price fell 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average transaction price was 105,230 yuan/mt, up 1,035 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Macro front Domestic: [Huawei Announces Semiconductor Tao's Law] On May 25, Huawei officially announced a new law in the semiconductor field. "Tao's Law" proposes replacing "geometric scaling" with "temporal scaling," achieving new breakthroughs in transistor density and system performance through logic folding technology. This marks the first time China has proposed a new principle guiding industrial development in the global semiconductor field. By 2031, high-end chip transistor density based on this law is expected to reach the equivalent level of the 1.4nm process node. (People's Daily) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Result in Net Injection of 257 billion yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 258 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. 1 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today. On the US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.3% to 99.03. Kevin Hassett, chief economic adviser to US President Trump, said he believes that the eventual decline in oil prices will create room for the Fed to cut interest rates. "We again expect that once a deal is reached, energy prices will plunge," Hassett said. "When that happens, the Fed will have plenty of room to take the right action and lower interest rates." He emphasized that he respects the Fed's independence and praised Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in as Fed Chairman last Friday. Although the surge in US fuel prices caused by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a growing political risk to Trump and his Republican Party in the November midterm elections, Hassett believes that the accelerating inflation is mainly driven by energy prices. "If you look at the last few data reports, energy prices are absolutely concerning, but core prices have barely moved at all," he said. "I think once we see energy prices pull back, due to declining energy prices, you may actually see negative inflation." (Jin10 Data) According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June was 97.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 2.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July was 84.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 14.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike was 0.3%. (Jin10 Data) On data: Today, data including China's year-to-date installed power generation capacity in April and its year-on-year rate will be released. In addition, attention should be paid to: 500 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos will mature today. In addition, it is worth noting that due to the Memorial Day holiday, US stock markets will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday); CME's precious metals and US crude oil futures contract trading will end early at 02:30 Beijing time on the 26th, and US stock and US Treasury futures contract trading will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 26th. Due to the Buddha's Birthday holiday, Hong Kong stock markets will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday), with both southbound and northbound trading suspended; South Korean stock markets will also be closed for one day on the same day. In addition, due to the Spring Bank Holiday, the UK stock market will be closed on Monday, May 25; trading of ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on May 26. Investors are advised to take note. (Jin10 Data) Overseas exchange closure arrangements are as follows (all in Beijing time): Crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 5.92% and Brent down 5.32%. Rising expectations of a US-Iran deal boosted global risk sentiment, putting oil prices under pressure. The direct catalyst for the oil price decline was signs of improvement in actual transit conditions through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iran's Islamic Republic News Agency citing a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, 33 vessels — including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial vessels — passed through the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours on Sunday after receiving authorization from the IRGC Navy. (Wallstreetcn) The Washington Post reported on May 24 that the US and Iran had reached agreement on a framework for a memorandum of understanding (MOU), which, once signed, would fully restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. Citing an anonymous senior US government official, the report said the US and Iran had developed an MOU "framework" that includes a 60-day ceasefire extension to allow both sides to reach a "final agreement" on permanently ending hostilities with Iran, during which the Strait of Hormuz would be demined and reopened. The official said the MOU includes a "commitment" that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. Over the next two months, the US and Iran will discuss the "mechanism" for implementing this commitment. However, neither side signed any agreement on May 24. (Xinhua) Trump said on social media on Saturday that a US-Iran deal was largely done, including the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and told US representatives not to rush into a deal. But on Sunday he said the deal was "not fully done yet." US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had previously said there could be "some good news" on the Hormuz issue in the coming hours. Iran remained cautious. Iran's Tasnim News Agency warned that the draft agreement could still collapse due to US obstacles on several key terms — including Iran's demand for unfreezing assets. (Wallstreetcn) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►