Guinea-China bauxite freigh rates have rebounded recently amid renewed volatility in the Middle East and continued tightness in the dry bulk shipping market. As at least 70% of Guinea’s bauxite shipments are destined for China, sustained high freight rates on the Guinea-China route have not only lifted delivered logistics costs but also constrained shipments through weaker margins and limited vessel availability. Freight rose much faster than CIF prices, briefly accounting for over half of delivered prices SMM data showed that Guinea-China bauxite freight rates rose from $23.50/wmt on February 27 to $36.75/wmt on May 29, an increase of 56.4%. Freight remained at the same elevated level in the week ending June 5. Over the same period, the weekly average SMM Guinea bauxite CIF China price rose from $60.00/wmt to $68.00/wmt, an increase of only 13.3%, significantly lagging the rise in freight. As a result, freight as a share of the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF China price increased from 39.17% to 54.04%, meaning that ocean freight at one point represented more than half of the assessed delivered price. With CIF prices unable to fully absorb the additional shipping costs, pressure on miners’ and traders’ operating margins continued to build. According to SMM market contacts, the vast majority of surveyed Guinean mines reduced shipments to varying degrees after freight rates remained elevated, while some mines temporarily suspended loadings. High freight costs have therefore become a major direct factor behind the recent slowdown in Guinea’s bauxite shipments. In addition to prices, tight vessel availability has also restricted physical shipments. Traders and miners have widely reported difficulties securing spot bulk carriers, particularly for prompt cargoes. Some shipments have been delayed even where participants were prepared to accept prevailing freight levels, as vessels could not be secured in time and loading schedules had to be postponed. Peak season and contractual obligations initially supported March-April shipments Despite the sharp rise in Guinea-China freight rates from March, Guinea’s bauxite shipments remained relatively high during March and April. March-April is traditionally a peak shipment period in Guinea, when mining, inland transport and port-loading conditions are relatively favourable. In addition, previously signed long-term contracts and vessels booked in advance still had to be fulfilled. At the beginning of the freight rally, many market participants also expected the increase to be temporary. Miners therefore did not immediately make broad adjustments to existing shipment plans. SMM data showed that average weekly bauxite shipments from Guinea stood at 4.98 million mt between March 6 and April 24. Shipments remained high even after freight exceeded $30/wmt, reaching a weekly peak of 6.15 million mt in the week ending April 3. However, as elevated freight rates persisted into late April and May, the support from existing contracts, previously arranged vessels and the seasonal shipment peak gradually weakened. The impact of shipping costs became increasingly visible in outbound volumes. Average weekly shipments fell to 4.00 million mt between May 1 and June 26, down 19.8% from the March 6-April 24 average. Monthly data showed a similar trend. Guinea shipped 17.50 million mt in May, down 18.5% month on month, before shipments declined by another 10.0% to 15.74 million mt in June. The timing of the decline broadly coincided with the prolonged period of high freight rates and increasingly tight spot vessel availability reported by market participants since late April. Freight pressure eased briefly in late June before returning in July Shipping-market pressure eased temporarily in the second half of June as more positive expectations emerged around Middle East negotiations. Guinea-China bauxite freight rates fell from $36.75/wmt on June 5 to $31.00/wmt on July 3, while freight as a share of the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF China price declined from 54.04% to 43.66%. However, shipments did not recover immediately. Restarting cargo programmes, securing vessels and reorganising loading schedules all require time. Guinea was also moving deeper into its rainy season, further limiting the speed of any recovery. The rainy season generally runs from May to November, with the impact becoming more pronounced in July and August. SMM market feedback suggests that rainfall may reduce shipments by around 20% during the most disruptive period by affecting mine-to-port transportation, barge operations and loading efficiency. Entering July, renewed escalation in the Middle East pushed Guinea-China freight rates higher again. Freight rose from $31.00/wmt on July 3 to $35.00/wmt on July 24, an increase of 12.9%. Over the same period, the weekly average SMM Guinea bauxite CIF China price edged down from $71.00/wmt to $70.50/wmt, lifting the freight share back to 49.65%. According to SMM market contacts, as freight rates rebounded and spot bulk carriers remained difficult to secure, some mines that had previously planned to resume shipments again reduced or suspended loadings. Weekly shipments declined from 3.41 million mt in the week ending July 3 to 3.07 million mt in the week ending July 24, a decrease of 9.9%. Shipments fell as low as 2.83 million mt in the week ending July 17. As of July 24, Guinea’s cumulative July shipments stood at 10.55 million mt, equivalent to an average of 439,500 mt per day, down 16.2% from June’s daily average. SMM outlook SMM believes that the recent pressure on Guinea’s bauxite shipments cannot be attributed solely to seasonal rainfall. Persistently high freight rates and tight spot vessel availability have become the main direct constraints on shipments, while the rainy season has amplified the disruption. High freight rates continue to compress the operating room available to miners and traders, while scarce vessel availability is preventing some cargoes from progressing from planned sales to actual loading. The traditional shipment peak, contractual obligations and previously arranged vessels delayed the transmission of higher freight costs into shipment volumes during March and April. However, as elevated freight rates persisted, the vast majority of surveyed miners gradually reduced shipments, while some temporarily halted loadings, with the impact becoming increasingly apparent from May. In the near term, developments in the Middle East, fuel costs and dry bulk vessel availability in the West African market will remain key factors influencing Guinea-China freight rates. Should freight rates remain near $35/wmt or rise further, while tight spot bulk carrier availability shows no meaningful improvement, Guinean miners’ willingness to ship and their actual loading capacity may remain constrained. Combined with the impact of the July-August rainy season on mine-to-port transportation, barge operations and port-loading efficiency, Guinea’s weekly bauxite shipments are expected to remain volatile at relatively low levels, with marginal mines and spot cargoes facing greater pressure. Looking ahead to the third quarter of 2026, under SMM’s base-case scenario of persistently high freight rates, tight vessel availability and continued rainy-season disruption, Guinea’s bauxite shipments are expected to remain subdued and fluctuate at low levels. Average daily shipments may mainly range between 370,000 mt and 400,000 mt, corresponding to monthly shipments of approximately 11.5 million-12.0 million mt, broadly in line with the monthly average recorded in the third quarter of 2025. Shipments could stage a temporary recovery should Middle East tensions ease, freight rates decline significantly and bulk vessel availability improve. Meanwhile, developments concerning Guinea’s bauxite export quota policy remain a key uncertainty for the supply outlook. Any substantive implementation of related measures could further alter the pace of shipments and expectations for the country’s total bauxite exports.

SMM News on July 30: Domestic Bauxite: Supply Disruptions Drive Up Domestic Ore Prices; Alumina Refineries' Long-Term Contract Procurement Prices Rise Overall Affected by coking coal-related incidents in Shanxi, mining activities in major domestic bauxite producing areas like Shanxi and Henan have been somewhat disrupted in the short term, leading to phased changes in ore supply. Meanwhile, alumina prices remain at relatively high levels, and alumina refineries have a moderate tolerance for rising raw material costs, mostly accepting current ore prices passively in the near term. As of today, the EXW price, excluding VAT, at crushing plants for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content in Shanxi is approximately 530-550 yuan/mt; in Henan, the EXW price for similar bauxite is around 500-540 yuan/mt; in the Guiyang area, the EXW price, including VAT, for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 60% alumina content is 490-540 yuan/mt; and in Guangxi, the EXW price, excluding VAT, for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 53% alumina content is 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported Bauxite: Ocean Freight Rates Fluctuate at Highs; August Long-Term Contract Prices Yet to Be Settled; Imported Bauxite Market Remains in a State of Continued Negotiation According to data from July 24, total weekly port departures of bauxite from major ports in Guinea were 3.0697 million mt, up 237,700 mt from the previous week, with shipments edging up slightly. As US-Iran tensions intensify again, oil prices have rebounded, and ocean freight rates from Guinea to China have followed suit with a rising trend, with market quotations reaching around $35/mt, driving up mine costs to varying degrees. Coupled with policy uncertainties in Guinea and weather-related transport disruptions, Guinean mines are tightening control over bauxite shipments. In Australia, as of July 24, total weekly bauxite port departures from major Australian ports were 1.0481 million mt, up 326,800 mt from the previous week, with shipments rising slightly; the future pace of shipments from Australian mines and changes in port departures require further attention. As of July 24, China's bauxite port arrivals stood at 2.7603 million mt, down 1.9029 million mt from the previous week. Continued attention is needed on the impact of high and fluctuating oil prices and ocean freight rates on future arrival pace and landed costs. In terms of prices, Guinean bauxite long-term contract offers for July are in the range of $70-71.5/mt, while August long-term contract prices are still under negotiation. Meanwhile, bauxite inventories at domestic alumina refineries remain at high levels. This week, alumina refinery bauxite inventories were relatively stable, with days of inventories at about 94 days, exerting some downward pressure on ore prices. As for Guinean bauxite, with the rebound in Guinean-to-China transportation costs, mine costs, plus shipment reductions caused by the traditional rainy season and adverse weather, upstream and trader offers remained firm and held steady in the high price range of $70-72/mt. Due to persistently high inventory at domestic alumina refineries and shrinking profits, the intended transaction price dropped to $70/mt or lower. The upstream and downstream bauxite market saw significant price divergence, with transaction activity slowing down, and the tug-of-war continued from the previous week. As of Thursday this week, Guinean bauxite FOB quotes were $38-40/mt, with the average price unchanged from the previous Thursday; CIF prices were reported at $69-73/mt, with the average up $0.5/mt from the previous Thursday; the SMM Imported Bauxite Index stood at $70.87/mt, up $0.51/mt from the previous Thursday. Future bauxite prices will still depend on mine cost conditions, Guinea’s traditional rainy season, and the impact of the Guinean government’s bauxite export quota policy on overall shipments. SMM will continue to closely monitor bauxite market trends and transactions. Overall , the domestic ore market price maintained the current level; meanwhile, inventory at domestic alumina refineries remained high (about 94 days), and buyers and sellers continued to bargain over offers. Uncertainty over Guinea’s quota policy, declining shipments, and the traditional rainy season also exerted some upward pressure on bauxite costs. In the short term, as shipment volumes decline due to both costs and policy factors, imported ore prices are expected to maintain their high-level tug-of-war pattern. Afterwards, close attention should be paid to the implementation of Guinea’s quota policy and the trend in ocean freight rates.

[SMM Weekly Review: Polysilicon Awaits Cost Meeting Plan, Module Prices Stabilize on Profit-Protection Willingness] This week, China's module prices showed signs of stabilizing. Due to the poor financial performance of some enterprises in mid-year, with companies in a continuous state of losses, the sentiment of competing on price to sell began to wane, shifting from previously rushing shipments to now prioritizing profit protection. Module prices began to show stability. However, affected by the pace of warehouse withdrawals of low-efficiency modules, low-price orders still existed in the market, and distributed prices were relatively divergent. On the centralized side, recent project tenders were scarce, and demand recovery was slower than expected.

China formally ended the value-added tax export rebate for photovoltaic products on April 1, 2026. In the first days after implementation, higher export costs and the renegotiation of existing contracts briefly lifted some module offers. That support proved short-lived.

[7.28 Morning Meeting Minutes] On July 24, Trump ordered a suspension of airstrikes on Iran (following 13 consecutive nights of strikes), primarily due to the depletion of air defense interceptor reserves and to leave room for diplomatic negotiations. Iran announced a suspension of reciprocal strikes on the 26th. Brent crude oil plunged 5% at Monday's open to around $92, and WTI fell to around $84.70. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract fell in morning trading, closing at 132,170 yuan/mt, down 0.42%. The US-Iran conflict has pressed pause, crude oil prices dropped significantly, and as sulfur cost support weakened, nickel prices pulled back. The US Fed will hold its July FOMC meeting on July 29, and the market widely expects interest rates to remain unchanged, easing macro pressure. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 130,000-137,000 yuan/mt in the near term.

Overall, the main theme of the Indonesia and Philippines nickel ore market in H1 2026 can be summarized as follows: policy is redefining Indonesia’s supply boundary, HPM is redefining resource value, ore grade decline is redefining the long-term cost floor, and Philippine ore is increasingly acting as the marginal balancing source.

In H1 2026, China's alumina market was broadly characterized by wild price swings, persistent supply pressure, strengthening cost support, and inventory accumulation at high levels. In terms of prices, spot alumina repeatedly shifted between an oversupply scenario and intermittent disruptions, with a low near 2,610 yuan/mt in mid-February and highs around 2,790 yuan/mt in late March and mid-June, representing a trading range of approximately 180 yuan/mt. On the supply side, despite disruptions from maintenance, environmental protection measures, compliance-related production cuts, and equipment issues, new capacity was steadily released. As of end-June, China's existing alumina capacity had risen to approximately 118.42 million mt/year, an increase of about 8.1 million mt from the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, substantial volumes of alumina flowed in from outside China, with China recording cumulative net imports of 484,000 mt of alumina from January to May. Combined with the accumulation of high domestic inventories, the pressure of a loose supply-demand balance remained prominent. 1. Prices: Wild Swings Amplified by Intermittent Disturbances In H1 2026, alumina prices did not establish a one-way trend but instead shifted repeatedly between oversupply conditions and sudden disruptions. At the start of the year, the market saw a rise in expectations for "anti-involution" policies in the alumina industry, which drove the futures to hold up well and lent some support to spot prices. However, from January onward, as the pressure from oversupply and inventory accumulation re-emerged, market sentiment weakened, and alumina prices trended downwards. By mid-February, alumina prices had pulled back to around 2,610 yuan/mt, with the price center falling to near 2,620 yuan/mt. Based on cost levels at the time, most alumina enterprises were operating at a loss, and market pessimism was strong. Subsequently, in late February, geopolitical conflicts boosted sentiment across the nonferrous metals sector. This was coupled with the shutdown of nearly 3 million mt of operating capacity at a major northern alumina refinery due to compliance issues, which caused a temporary tightness in local market supply and triggered a rapid price rebound. In March, the northern supply disruption remained unresolved in the short term, and inventories saw a destocking phase. Additionally, some alumina enterprises in Guizhou halted production due to operational pressure, further strengthening expectations of supply contraction. As a result, alumina prices continued to rally, rising to near 2,790 yuan/mt in late March. From April onward, newly commissioned capacity in Guangxi began to be released, and some enterprises that had previously cut or suspended production gradually resumed operations. The market thus returned to a logic of ample supply, and prices subsequently pulled back. From late May to June, prices rebounded once more. On one hand, a major alumina refinery in Guangxi underwent a temporary production halt due to equipment issues, causing a short-term supply disruption. On the other hand, the ongoing controversy surrounding Guinea's bauxite quota policy heightened ore-related concerns and lifted market sentiment. Coupled with strong capital interest in the futures, spot prices followed suit and rose again to around 2,790 yuan/mt in mid-June. 2. Production: Frequent Maintenance Disruptions, New Capacity Remains the Main Theme In H1 2026, China’s metallurgical-grade alumina production showed an overall pattern of first declining then stabilizing, with maintenance disruptions and new capacity releases coexisting. Early in the year, output was under notable pressure due to staggered maintenance, environmental protection-related controls, and the production pace around Chinese New Year. Entering Q2, new capacity in Guangxi and other regions was gradually released, allowing south China’s production to recover somewhat. However, maintenance, production line upgrades, and environmental factors in north China still caused intermittent supply disruptions, and the overall oversupply pattern did not change. In terms of capacity changes, China’s existing alumina capacity continued to rise during H1, from approximately 110.32 million mt/year at end-January to about 118.42 million mt/year at end-June, with new capacity mainly concentrated in Guangxi and other areas. However, as some newly commissioned projects remained in trial production or the ramp-up stage, and combined with maintenance, production cuts, and line upgrades across multiple regions, operating capacity did not rise significantly in tandem, remaining in a sideways range of 85–88 million mt/year. On a monthly basis, China’s alumina production in January fell both MoM and YoY, mainly due to routine maintenance in north China, environmental controls in Henan, and annual maintenance in Guizhou and Guangxi. February production pulled back further, with enterprises conducting concentrated maintenance and cuts on the one hand, and fewer calendar days on the other. In March, total output rebounded MoM, but daily average production still slipped, indicating that new capacity had not yet yielded effective output, while maintenance and line adjustments in Guizhou, Guangxi, and Shanxi continued to weigh on operating rates. Moving into Q2, April production fell again MoM. Loads increased in Shandong, but output remained low in Shanxi and Henan amid production line upgrades and ore quality issues. In May, total output rebounded MoM, driven by new capacity releases in south China and production resumptions at some enterprises in Guizhou, while concentrated maintenance in the north dragged on daily average production performance. In June, new capacity continued to be released. The second production line of the newly commissioned project in Guangxi boosted south China output, but environmental protection factors in Shanxi led to temporary reductions of some capacity, offsetting the gains, and as a result, monthly production edged down MoM with a slight YoY increase. Overall, while the alumina supply side was frequently disrupted by maintenance, environmental protection measures, and ore supply issues in H1, expectations of new capacity releases continued to pressure the market. Particularly since Q2, as new commissioned capacity in Guangxi gradually ramped up and previously idled capacity under maintenance resumed, market concerns over further supply increases intensified. 3. Costs: Falling First Then Rising, with Gradually Strengthening Support from the Ore Side In H1 2026, alumina costs overall moved lower initially before climbing. At the beginning of the year, bauxite and caustic soda prices fell together, significantly easing cost pressure for alumina enterprises. However, from March onward, imported ore prices began to rise persistently, and combined with a temporary strengthening of caustic soda prices, the cost center for alumina moved up again. Early in Q1, the decline in costs mainly came from falling raw material prices. For bauxite, domestic ore supply had not fully recovered, but alumina refineries held relatively ample raw material inventories. Coupled with weak spot alumina prices, ore prices fell under pressure. For imported ore, markets outside China saw sluggish trading and weak downstream purchase willingness, and Guinea ore prices once pulled back to around $61–62/mt. Meanwhile, a stronger RMB exchange rate further lowered import costs. In the caustic soda market, the Chinese market was affected by overcapacity and weakening alumina prices, leading to widespread cuts in long-term contract prices, which further pushed down alumina production costs. From March to April, the cost side began to rebound significantly. Bauxite prices shifted from weak to strong. Imported ore was affected by rising ocean freight rates, tight fuel supply in Guinea, mine controls on shipments, and expectations of quota policies, causing CIF prices to rise persistently. Compared with the low of around $61–62/mt at the beginning of the year, the imported ore price center shifted notably higher from March to April and gradually fluctuated at highs. Meanwhile, caustic soda prices strengthened temporarily, becoming another important factor driving up costs. Affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, export demand for caustic soda increased. Prices rose first in Shandong and other regions, then spread to inland and south China markets, significantly raising procurement costs for liquid caustic soda at alumina enterprises. After May, caustic soda prices retreated from highs, partially relieving cost pressure for alumina enterprises. As caustic soda prices had risen significantly earlier, alumina enterprises strengthened cost control, and long-term contract prices were successively reduced across regions, with main producing areas such as Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi all experiencing varying degrees of pullback. However, caustic soda accounts for a relatively limited share of total alumina costs, so its price decline did not sufficiently ease overall costs. In contrast, bauxite provided even stronger cost support in late Q2. During May–June, Guinea bauxite CIF prices had already risen to around $70/mt, up about $8–9/mt from the low at the beginning of the year, an increase of roughly 13%–15%. On the domestic ore side, a mining accident in Shanxi in June restricted mining at some mines, tightening regional supply and pushing domestic ore prices slightly higher by about 10–30 yuan/mt; for imported ore, Guinea gradually entered the shipping off-season, and port departures of overseas ore decreased. Combined with previously high ocean freight rates and disturbances from quota policies, imported ore prices still faced upward pressure. From the cost range perspective, the weighted average full cost of alumina in H1 gradually moved from around 2,510–2,620 yuan/mt to above 2,700 yuan/mt, with the cost center shifting up by approximately 150–200 yuan/mt. (图片翻译失败，请手动修改后再发布！) IV. Inventory: Total Inventory Rises from Highs, Port Pressure Most Pronounced In H1 2026, China's alumina inventory overall exhibited a pattern of minor fluctuations initially, followed by sustained inventory buildup. At the start of the year, affected by increased maintenance at alumina refineries and a decline in the industry's operating rate, the supply side contracted somewhat, and the pace of inventory buildup temporarily slowed down. After the Chinese New Year, maintenance and production cuts at some northern enterprises continued to weigh on output. Coupled with seasonal consumption at aluminum smelters, the market briefly experienced destocking. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries and raw material inventory at aluminum smelters both declined, and market sentiment improved slightly from the beginning of the year. However, this destocking did not last. Starting in March, as new alumina projects in Guangxi gradually came on stream and imported alumina arrived at ports, domestic inventory re-entered a path of accumulation. On the supply side, although some maintenance disruptions remained, the release of new capacity and inflows of overseas supplies together drove up market supply pressure. The scope of inventory buildup gradually expanded from refinery warehouses to ports, futures warrants, and in-transit stages. In particular, the increase in port inventory was relatively pronounced, becoming one of the main sources of inventory growth in H1. Inventory pressure became more evident in Q2. In April, total national alumina inventory rose to 6.497 million mt. Although in-factory inventory at aluminum smelters and alumina refineries declined in stages, increases in SHFE warrants and in-transit inventory offset some of the destocking effect. After May, concentrated arrivals of overseas alumina at ports, along with the new capacity in Guangxi starting to ship, pushed total national inventory up quickly to 6.887 million mt. Port inventory surged notably, indicating that the impact of imported resources on the domestic market had strengthened significantly. As of early July, total national alumina inventory rose further to 7.015 million mt. While the MoM increase slowed significantly, the absolute inventory level remained high. From a structural perspective, aluminum smelters, facing high alumina prices, proactively reduced their raw material inventory. Changes in in-factory inventory at alumina refineries were limited overall, as maintenance and production cuts in Shanxi were offset by production increases in south China. Port inventory continued to rise to 891,000 mt, indicating that overseas supplies were still flowing into the Chinese market. Overall, alumina inventory in H1 did not see effective destocking; instead, it continued to rise under the impact of new capacity releases and imported supplies. The core of the inventory pressure no longer simply stemmed from in-factory inventory buildup at alumina refineries, but was more reflected in the increase in circulation inventories such as port inventory, in-transit inventory, and futures warrants. V. Imports and Exports: Net Imports Intensify, Overseas Resources Add to Domestic Supply Pressure In H1 2026, China's alumina import and export pattern shifted markedly to net imports. From January to May, China imported a cumulative 1.828 million mt of alumina, up 995.1% YoY; exported 1.344 million mt, up 14.7% YoY; resulting in net imports of 484,000 mt. Compared with the approximately 970,000 mt imported for the full year 2025, the import volume in the first five months of this year already significantly exceeded the total for the whole of last year. Import sources were mainly concentrated in Australia and Indonesia. In January–May, China imported 1.231 million mt from Australia, accounting for 67.3% of total imports, and 398,000 mt from Indonesia, accounting for 21.8%; together, the two countries represented nearly 90%. The sharp increase in imports was driven on the one hand by the widening price spread between Chinese and overseas markets, keeping the import window continuously open, and on the other, by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East that altered the flow of some overseas supplies, with some alumina redirected to the Chinese market. On the export side, Russia remained China's largest export destination for alumina. Meanwhile, increased exports to Oman, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other regions more reflected the active re-export trade at Chinese ports. Going forward, if trade routes in the Middle East gradually recover, re-export demand may pull back somewhat, but the impact of overseas resources on the Chinese market still requires sustained attention. H2 Outlook: Supply Pressure Persists, Prices Likely to Move Sideways Looking ahead to H2, the alumina market is expected to continue revolving around "supply pressure" and "cost support." On the one hand, new capacity in Guangxi and other regions is expected to continue releasing, capacity that underwent previous maintenance may also resume, and together with the potential inflow of overseas alumina, the loose supply picture is unlikely to be significantly reversed in the short term. On the other hand, relatively firm bauxite prices, constrained domestic ore supply, and policy disturbances at Guinean mines may continue to support alumina costs, limiting the downside room for prices. On the price front, H2 alumina prices are most likely to mainly move sideways. If new capacity release proceeds smoothly and the import window stays open, the upside for prices will remain capped by inventory and supply pressure. But if domestic ore supply tightens, imported ore prices keep rising, or enterprises increase voluntary maintenance after sustaining losses, prices may also stage periodic rebounds. From the supply perspective, the release of new capacity remains the main source of pressure in H2. If newly commissioned capacity in Guangxi and other regions continues to ramp up, it will further add to market supply. However, amid shrinking profits, ore supply disruptions, and environmental protection factors, some enterprises may also adjust production through maintenance or reduced operating rates. Therefore, although the supply side is generally loose in H2, periodic disruptions will still frequently affect market sentiment. Cost side, bauxite remains the most critical variable. Currently, Guinean ore prices are already at high levels, and attention still needs to be paid to the shipping off-season, quota policies, ocean freight rate changes, and domestic ore supply. If ore prices continue to rise, the center of alumina costs may lift further, providing bottom support for prices. For caustic soda, if supply stays loose, prices are expected to have a relatively limited impact on the cost side. Inventory and trade side, high inventory will still weigh on the market. H1 port inventory increased significantly, indicating that ex-China cargoes have had a strong impact on the Chinese market. If the import window remains open in H2, port inventory and in-transit inventory may still stay high. However, as Middle East trade routes gradually recover, re-export demand caused earlier by geopolitical conflicts may pull back, and export growth may slow down. Overall, the alumina market is unlikely to shake off the loose pattern in H2. On the upside, prices are suppressed by new capacity, imported resources, and high inventory; on the downside, they are supported by bauxite costs and enterprises' expectations for production cuts. Alumina prices are expected to maintain a consolidation pattern. Moving forward, the focus will be on the pace of new capacity release, bauxite price changes, enterprise maintenance situations, and the pace of ex-China cargo inflows. (The above information is based on market data collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team and is provided for reference only. This does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.) Data source: SMM

Overseas PV Markets Enter a Policy-Driven Reset After H1 Demand Pull-Forward. Export tax changes, freight volatility, raw material costs, and policy deadlines lifted China TOPCon FOB prices in Q1 before weaker demand pulled them back to $0.108-0.112/W by late June.

In H1 2026, the overseas bauxite market was generally characterized by high shipment levels, growing imports, a year-on-year decline in prices but a recovery within the year, stronger policy disturbances, and rising energy and freight costs. In particular, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and dry bulk freight rates, becoming an important cost-side factor supporting Guinea bauxite CIF China prices. On the supply side, bauxite shipments from Guinea’s major ports maintained significant year-on-year growth, making Guinea the core source of overseas bauxite supply increments. Australian shipments were generally stable, although local weather disruptions in March caused a temporary decline in shipments from major ports. In terms of domestic import structure, as June customs import data by country has not yet been released, this article mainly observes import changes from January to May 2026. Data shows that domestic bauxite imports continued to grow year-on-year during January-May 2026, with the source structure becoming increasingly concentrated in Guinea. On the price side, imported bauxite prices in H1 2026 were significantly lower than the same period in 2025, but prices did not continue to decline throughout the year. Since March, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed up international oil prices and dry bulk freight costs, leading to a significant increase in Guinea bauxite CIF China prices. Around the Labour Day holiday and again in mid-to-late June, market rumours repeatedly suggested that the Guinean government might introduce bauxite export quota-related policies. Although no such policies were officially implemented within the expected timeframe, these rumours disrupted the transaction pace between buyers and sellers and provided support to forward price expectations. At the same time, after the Chinese New Year holiday, imported bauxite raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries remained at elevated levels, while port inventories of imported bauxite continued to accumulate after March and throughout H1, limiting further upside in spot prices. Overall, the overseas bauxite market in H1 2026 did not face an absolute shortage. Instead, it showed a pattern of relatively loose physical supply but tightening expectations from costs and policy risks. High Guinean shipments supported arrivals of imported bauxite in the domestic market, but the high concentration of domestic import sources in Guinea also made the market more sensitive to Guinean policy changes, rainy-season shipment disruptions, freight rate fluctuations, and changes in long-term contract prices. Price: Still Low YoY, but CIF Prices Recovered in Stages During the Year According to SMM data, in January-June 2026, the average SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index stood at around $66.37/mt, down around 26.0% from the same period in 2025. The average Guinea bauxite CIF China price was around $65.88/mt, down around 25.8% year-on-year. The average Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF China price was around $56.93/mt, down around 23.0% year-on-year. The average Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF China price was around $61.63/mt, down around 24.1% year-on-year. From a year-on-year perspective, imported bauxite prices in H1 2026 remained significantly below the same period last year. However, from an intra-year perspective, imported bauxite prices first declined and then recovered. In early January, the SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index was around $68.35/mt, while Guinea bauxite CIF China was around $67.5/mt. By late February, Guinea bauxite CIF China had once fallen to around $60/mt. After entering March, rising oil prices and freight costs amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up the landed cost of Guinea bauxite delivered to China. On March 2, Guinea bauxite CIF China was around $62/mt; by March 20, it had risen to $66.5/mt, and by the end of March it further increased to $68.5/mt. It is worth noting that in March, the increase in Guinea CIF prices was significantly greater than the change in FOB prices. SMM data shows that Guinea bauxite FOB was around $37.5/mt on March 2, rose to $38.5/mt on March 20, and remained near $38.5/mt at the end of March. Over the same period, the Guinea CIF-FOB spread widened from around $24.5/mt to around $30/mt. Overall, the March increase in Guinea CIF prices was not entirely driven by mine-side quotations. Freight rates, energy costs, trading premiums, and forward supply risk expectations all provided support to landed prices. From late April to early May, the market heard rumours that the Guinean government might announce bauxite export quota-related policies during the Labour Day holiday. As a result, transaction activity between buyers and sellers slowed significantly, and the market turned cautious. In terms of price performance, Guinea bauxite CIF China remained largely stable at around $67.5/mt between April 24 and May 8, while the SMM Imported Bauxite CIF Index also stayed near $67.52/mt. Prices mainly moved sideways and did not break out significantly. As no related policy was officially introduced during the Labour Day period, market transactions gradually recovered in mid-May, and Guinea bauxite CIF China edged up to around $68/mt. Entering June, Guinean policy expectations once again disturbed the market. Around the Dragon Boat Festival, market rumours again suggested that the Guinean government might introduce export quota-related policies between mid-June and early July. At the same time, market participants were waiting for the release of July long-term contract prices, causing buyers and sellers to turn cautious again. In terms of prices, Guinea bauxite CIF China rose from around $68/mt in early June to around $69.5/mt in mid-June, and further increased to around $71/mt by the end of June. For Guinea monthly long-term contract prices, the price stood at $67/mt in January 2026, fell to $62/mt in February, rebounded to $63/mt in March, remained at $70/mt from April to June, and further increased to $71/mt in July. The firm long-term contract price also provided certain support to the spot market. Shipments: Guinea Maintained High Growth, while Australia Saw a Temporary Weather-Related Decline in March Due to the limited disclosure frequency of overseas mine production data, this article uses weekly shipments from major ports as a reference indicator for observing overseas bauxite exportable supply trends. For monthly comparison, all monthly shipment data mentioned in this article is calculated by allocating weekly shipment data to corresponding months based on the proportion of calendar days. According to SMM statistics, in January-June 2026, bauxite shipments from Guinea’s major ports totalled around 115.1357 million mt, up around 26.5% from the same period in 2025. By month, shipments from Guinea’s major ports increased by around 40.2% YoY in January, 35.1% YoY in February, 28.7% YoY in March, 31.5% YoY in April, 10.9% YoY in May, and 13.5% YoY in June. Overall, Guinean shipments remained high in H1 and continued to serve as the main source of overseas bauxite supply growth. In terms of shipment structure, high Guinean shipments reflected continued release of mine and port export capacity, while also supporting high arrivals of imported bauxite in the domestic market. At the same time, Guinea’s rising share in the domestic import structure means that the market has become increasingly sensitive to local policy changes, weather conditions, port operations, and shipping conditions. For Australia, bauxite shipments from major ports totalled around 21.6586 million mt in January-June 2026, down around 3.7% year-on-year. Overall performance was relatively stable, but its incremental supply elasticity was weaker than Guinea’s. Australia’s shipments fell notably in March, mainly due to local weather disruptions and related natural events. Weekly data shows that Australian bauxite shipments from major ports declined significantly during March, with shipments from Weipa falling to a low level in late March. After entering April, shipments from Australia’s major ports recovered quickly. This indicates that the weather disruption had more of a temporary impact on shipments rather than representing a sustained supply contraction. Import Structure: Domestic Imports Grew YoY in January-May, with Guinea’s Dominance Further Strengthened On the import side, as June customs import data by country has not yet been released, this article mainly observes domestic bauxite import changes in January-May 2026. According to customs data, domestic bauxite imports totalled around 100.7579 million mt in January-May 2026, up around 18.6% from 84.9571 million mt in the same period of 2025. By country, domestic imports from Guinea reached around 82.5716 million mt in January-May 2026, up around 24.9% from 66.1231 million mt in the same period of 2025. Guinea accounted for around 82.0% of total domestic bauxite imports, up from around 77.8% in the same period last year. This shows that Guinea remained the largest source of domestic imported bauxite, while its dominance in the import structure further strengthened. Australia remained the second-largest source of domestic bauxite imports. In January-May 2026, domestic imports from Australia stood at around 14.4914 million mt, up around 8.2% from 13.3929 million mt in the same period of 2025. However, Australia’s share of total domestic bauxite imports stood at around 14.4%, lower than around 15.8% in the same period last year. Overall, Australian supply remained stable, but its share in the domestic import structure was significantly lower than Guinea’s, and its short-term incremental supply elasticity was relatively limited. Among non-mainstream sources, domestic imports from Sierra Leone reached around 1.0353 million mt in January-May 2026, marking a significant year-on-year increase. Imports from Guyana reached around 747,200 mt, up slightly year-on-year, while imports from Türkiye reached around 559,100 mt, down significantly year-on-year. Overall, non-mainstream sources provided supplementary supply in certain months, but in terms of supply scale, stability, quality compatibility, and logistics conditions, they remain unable to substantially replace Guinea in the short term. From a monthly perspective, domestic bauxite imports remained high in January-May 2026. Imports stood at around 19.2528 million mt in January, 16.9530 million mt in February, 21.7789 million mt in March, 19.7433 million mt in April, and further increased to around 23.0298 million mt in May. May imports were at a high level, with imports from Guinea reaching around 19.6074 million mt and imports from Australia around 3.0259 million mt. High Guinean shipments in earlier periods and continued demand for imported ore from domestic coastal alumina refineries jointly supported import growth. Inventory and Transactions: High Inventories Suppressed Spot Procurement, while Policy Expectations Disrupted Transaction Pace In terms of inventories, according to SMM surveys, imported bauxite raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries remained at elevated levels after the Chinese New Year holiday. Meanwhile, after geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated in March, domestic port inventories of imported bauxite continued to accumulate throughout H1. With relatively sufficient inventory buffers, downstream alumina refineries had limited acceptance of high-priced spot cargoes. Procurement was mainly conducted on a need-to basis, while some enterprises preferred to observe policy changes, freight rates, and long-term contract price movements before restocking. High inventories also explain a key contradiction in price movements during H1. On the one hand, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up energy and freight costs, while repeated Guinean policy expectations disturbed market sentiment and supported imported bauxite prices. On the other hand, elevated inventories at alumina refineries and ports meant that spot procurement did not see sustained concentrated buying, and acceptance of high-priced cargoes remained limited, thereby restricting further price upside. Around the Labour Day holiday, the market heard rumours that the Guinean government might announce bauxite export quota-related policies during the holiday period. Transactions between buyers and sellers weakened significantly, and the market entered a wait-and-see mode. As no related policy was officially introduced within the expected timeframe, market transactions gradually recovered after mid-May, but prices only saw a mild recovery. In mid-to-late June, the market again heard rumours that Guinea might introduce quota-related policies between mid-June and early July. Together with uncertainty around July long-term contract prices, transaction activity became cautious again. Therefore, the impact of Guinean policy expectations in H1 2026 was reflected more in transaction pace and price expectations, rather than simply driving a sustained rapid increase in spot prices. Major Events: Cost Disturbances, Australian Weather, and Guinean Policy Expectations Ran Through H1 The major events in the overseas bauxite market in H1 2026 can be divided into three main lines. First, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East in March pushed up oil prices and dry bulk freight costs, driving a rapid recovery in Guinea bauxite CIF China prices. As the Guinea-China route is long, freight rate movements have a significant impact on landed costs. From March to June, Guinea-China bauxite freight rates remained high, once rising to around $36/mt, and fluctuated within a high range. At the same time, persistently high oil prices also pushed up transportation and export costs at Guinean mines. Some mines faced pressure on export margins, and market feedback suggested that some mines reduced shipments in stages or controlled shipment pace during May-June to ease cost pressure. Second, Australia saw a temporary decline in shipments from major ports in March due to local weather disruptions. After allocating weekly shipment data to months based on calendar days, Australian bauxite shipments from major ports stood at around 2.5339 million mt in March, down around 38.8% year-on-year. Among them, shipments from Weipa fell notably in late March. Shipments recovered quickly after entering April, indicating that the disruption was more of a short-term event and had limited impact on the full-year supply structure. Third, Guinean export quota policy expectations repeatedly disturbed the market. Around the Labour Day holiday, market rumours suggested that the Guinean government might announce export quota-related policies, leading to weaker transactions and sideways price movements. However, no such policy was eventually introduced, and market transactions gradually recovered after mid-May. In mid-to-late June, the market again heard rumours that the Guinean government might introduce quota-related policies between mid-June and early July. Together with the pending release of July long-term contract prices, prices again remained firm. Although the policy has not yet been officially implemented, the market has become significantly more sensitive to such news amid the high dependence of domestic imported bauxite on Guinea. Full-Year Outlook: Guinean Policy Risk and Freight Cost Disturbances Continue to Support Forward Price Expectations Looking ahead to H2 2026, the core contradiction in the overseas bauxite market is expected to continue revolving around Guinean policy changes, rainy-season shipments, and freight cost fluctuations. If shipments from Guinea’s major ports remain relatively stable as seen in early July, and Guinea-China freight rates continue to fall, imported bauxite supply is still expected to remain relatively sufficient. Domestic alumina refinery and port inventories may also remain elevated, limiting further upside in spot prices. However, on the risk side, current market rumours still suggest that the Guinean government may introduce bauxite export quota-related policies in H2 2026. If such policies are officially implemented and impose substantial constraints on local mine shipment schedules, Guinean bauxite supply elasticity may be affected, thereby supporting imported bauxite prices. Meanwhile, as Guinea gradually enters its traditional rainy season, mining, inland transportation, and port loading may all face temporary disruptions. Based on historical rainy-season performance, Guinean shipments may decline in certain months, affecting domestic arrival schedules and port inventory digestion. In terms of freight rates, Middle East developments still showed potential for volatility in early July, and the previous easing expectations still require further observation. If geopolitical risks rise again, oil prices and dry bulk freight costs may increase once more. Guinea-China bauxite freight rates may rebound from the current range of around $30-32/mt to $36/mt or even higher, pushing imported bauxite CIF prices higher again. Conversely, if the Middle East situation continues to ease and oil prices and freight rates decline further, Guinea-China freight rates may fall below $30/mt. In that case, some Guinean mines that previously reduced shipments or controlled shipment pace may resume shipments, and market transaction activity may recover. On prices, overseas bauxite prices in H2 are expected to remain constrained on both the upside and downside. On the upside, elevated raw material inventories at domestic alumina refineries and port inventories will limit acceptance of high-priced spot cargoes. If actual supply does not shrink significantly, the momentum for a sustained sharp price increase may be limited. On the downside, Guinean policy expectations, rainy-season disruptions, freight volatility, long-term contract price support, and import source concentration risks all mean that imported bauxite prices lack the basis for a sharp decline. In H2 2026, the market needs to closely monitor whether Guinean export policies are officially implemented, the actual impact of the rainy season on local mines and port shipments, Guinea-China freight rate movements, July and subsequent long-term contract price adjustments, and domestic port inventory digestion. If Guinean shipments remain high and port inventories continue to accumulate, the upside elasticity of imported bauxite prices may remain limited. However, if policy implementation tightens, rainy-season disruptions exceed expectations, or freight rates rise again, Guinea bauxite CIF China prices may still receive periodic support. Conclusion Overall, the overseas bauxite market in H1 2026 was characterized by high shipments, growing imports, a year-on-year price decline but intra-year recovery, and stronger policy disturbances. Guinean shipments increased significantly year-on-year, supporting high domestic bauxite import volumes. Australian shipments recovered after a temporary weather-related decline in March, and overall supply remained relatively stable. In terms of import structure, domestic bauxite imports increased by around 18.6% year-on-year in January-May 2026. Among them, imports from Guinea increased by around 24.9% year-on-year, with its share rising further to around 82.0%, indicating that domestic imported bauxite reliance on Guinea continued to increase. On the price side, imported bauxite prices in H1 2026 were significantly lower than the same period in 2025. However, prices recovered during the year amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising oil and freight costs, Guinean export quota policy expectations, and long-term contract price support. At the same time, elevated raw material inventories at alumina refineries after the Chinese New Year holiday and continued port inventory accumulation after March limited further upside in spot prices. Looking ahead, the overseas bauxite market does not lack absolute supply, but the supply structure is highly concentrated. Price volatility is increasingly driven by policy, logistics, freight, and risk premiums rather than a simple supply-demand gap. In H2, Guinean policy implementation, rainy-season shipments, freight rate movements, long-term contract price adjustments, and domestic port inventory digestion will be key factors affecting overseas bauxite prices and import structure changes.

Philippine market: Zambales and Northern Luzon officially entered the rainy season. A low-pressure system may make landfall on Monday, and CIF prices followed Indonesian procurement prices lower. Overall CIF China offers fell this week: 1.3% at $45.5–47/wmt, 1.4% at $56–57/wmt, 1.5% at $64–65/wmt, and 1.8% at $91–94/wmt. CIF Indonesia offers held flat, with 1.3% at $45–46/wmt and 1.4% at $55–56/wmt, largely aligning with smelter tender prices. Freight rates eased notably this week: Surigao–Lianyungang around $13.25/wmt, Surigao–Indonesia around $11/wmt. Overall freight rates dropped by around $0.5/wmt WoW, significantly easing the situation where “freight rates stayed high.” FOB prices also moved lower, with 1.3% at $33–35/wmt, 1.4% at $41.5–43.5/wmt, and 1.8% at $76–78/wmt, confirming the earlier view that FOB would follow CIF’s pullback. Supply side, Zambales and Northern Luzon officially entered the rainy season, worsening mine roads, disrupting shipments, and leading to low outbound volumes. In terms of weather, the Philippines is expected to see continuous rainfall for the first five days of next week, shifting to mainly showers in the last two days, with total weekly rainfall surging across the country. Meanwhile, a low-pressure system is forming in the eastern waters; though not expected to intensify into a tropical depression or storm, it is forecast to make landfall in the central-southern Philippines next Monday and move northwestward across land, affecting Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. In major producing areas, cumulative weekly rainfall next week around the Manicani-Homonhon-Dinagat-Surigao belt is expected to more than double WoW, with the Homonhon area likely to be impacted by swells for 2–3 days. Dinapigue’s rainfall is forecast to be about six times this week’s level, with wave heights reaching around 1.7 meters on Wednesday and Thursday. RTN, Ipilan, and Berong loading points in Palawan are all expected to see higher rainfall next week compared to this week. In Zambales, cumulative weekly rainfall is forecast to be about 2.5 times this week’s level. Despite sustained weather disruptions, Chinese port inventories are already high, so weather’s support to prices remains very limited. Cost side, international oil prices pulled back slightly, alleviating mining and transportation cost pressures, but spot freight rates remained at relatively high levels, with the easing not yet fully materialized. Demand side, smelters in both China and Indonesia held dual-high inventories, with limited near-term restocking appetite. The buyer-dominated pattern persisted, and spot trading stayed sluggish. On inventories, as of June 26, Philippine nickel ore stocks at Chinese ports stood at around 6.44 million wmt (approximately 51,000 mt in nickel metal content), sustaining the ample supply picture. Indonesian market: HMA dropped sharply MoM—down 7.6% to a new low; RKAB revision window opened; heavy rainfall continued to disrupt shipments in Halmahera and Obi. Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources published the HMA nickel reference price for the first half of July at $17,225.67/dmt, a significant drop of about 7.6% from $18,642.33/dmt in the second half of June. Based on this, the theoretical HPM price for Ni 1.6% saprolite ore is around $66.6/wmt, and for Ni 1.2% limonite ore around $47.4/wmt. Premiums: premiums for 1.6% material remained stable; premiums for 1.4% material were around $1.3/wmt; for 1.5% and 1.6%, around $3/wmt—overall limited movement. In spot trading, 1.2% limonite ore was offered at around $30/wmt, and 1.5% saprolite ore at around $65/wmt, with both declining by about $5.5/wmt in total this week, mainly driven by the sharp fall in the HMA reference price. Supply side, the impact of the rainy season on Sulawesi production areas remained relatively mild in some regions, with limited disruption to overall shipments. However, weather conditions in Halmahera and Obi Island were generally severe, with persistent heavy rainfall and deteriorating sea conditions already causing some restrictions on mine production. Despite shipment disruptions, overall smelter inventory levels remained relatively adequate, limiting the near-term influence on procurement pace. Meanwhile, smelters continued to demand higher ore grades; low-grade ore (1.3–1.4%) supply was largely filled by Philippine cargoes, and multiple smelters turned to actively seeking high-grade ore (≥1.45%). Yet domestic high-grade ore supply remained scarce, with circulating grades concentrated in the 1.45–1.50% Ni range, intensifying procurement competition. Spot transaction prices for 1.2% limonite ore stayed stable this week; smelter procurement stayed low, with general reluctance to transact at HPM theoretical prices, deep discounts persisted, and low HPAL operating rates continued to weigh on purchasing prices. On the policy front, on Thursday, June 25, Tri Winarno, Director-General of Mineral and Coal at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, clarified that the total RKAB quota for nickel ore in 2026 has not yet been finalized. The government is still evaluating companies’ revision applications through the official review mechanism, with no specific figure set, focusing on assessing actual industry demand rather than relaxing restrictions. The RKAB revision window officially opened on July 1 and runs until July 31, with mining companies already initiating preparation work for revision applications and submitting production quota adjustment materials intensively; all adjustments are subject to full review.