India is expected to increase domestic production of rare earth permanent magnets, such as lithium, targeting 5,000 mt by 2030. This move aims to reduce reliance on imports and gradually establish a solid foundation for critical minerals in China.

SMM, March 27: According to SMM, the Northwest Lead and Zinc Smelter of Baiyin Nonferrous Group Co., Ltd. planned to conduct a public tender sale of about 100 mt of crude cadmium under its operations. According to the official announcement, the bidding floor price was set at a discount of 1,000 yuan/mt to the average price on SMM, and the highest bidder would win after the auction. This project required at least three registrants for the auction to proceed normally. The registration deadline was 17:00 on March 30, 2026, and bidding would begin at 10:00 on March 31, 2026. Market participants said that, as cadmium prices had recently shown an upward trend, this tender was also well worth watching. To a certain extent, it could reflect the strength of market demand and provide some reference as to whether cadmium prices could continue to rise steadily.

[SMM Flash News] According to SMM data, cast aluminum alloy social inventory fell 13,900 mt WoW this week, with the decline widening further from last week. First, the spot-futures price spread widened, and spot traders accelerated shipments, driving a faster inventory drawdown; second, overall demand did not improve, low-price competition in the market intensified, and enterprises accelerated the pace of inventory digestion by cutting prices to compete for orders.

SMM Nickel, March 27: Macro and Market News: (1) On March 26 local time, multiple US officials and informed sources revealed that the US Department of Defense was formulating a so-called "final blow" military option against Iran, and the relevant plans may include the deployment of ground forces and large-scale airstrike operations. (2) In response to US President Trump saying that he would visit China in mid-May, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said at a regular press conference on March 26 that head-of-state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic guiding role in China-US relations, and the two sides have remained in communication regarding President Trump's visit to China. Spot Market: On March 27, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price premium of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 4,900 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; spot premiums for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China were -600-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) maintained rangebound fluctuations and closed the morning session at 137,010 yuan/mt today, up 0.01%. Policy expectations that Indonesia may impose a nickel export tax, together with firm ore prices on the raw material side and easing macro sentiment, jointly drove nickel prices higher. Nickel prices are expected to hold up well in the short term, with the core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

SMM News, March 27: Today, in Guangdong, spot premiums for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were quoted at 150 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; 50 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, up 30 yuan/mt from yesterday; and a discount of 20 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, up 20 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 95,495 yuan/mt, down 130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 95,375 yuan/mt, down 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory declined for nine consecutive days and has now fallen by more than 40,000 mt from the high seen earlier this year. As inventory kept falling, suppliers showed stronger willingness to hold prices firm. In early trading, standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 60 yuan/mt, but some downstream enterprises were unwilling to purchase at high prices, prompting some suppliers to slightly lower premiums for shipments. Today, copper cathode purchasing sentiment in Guangdong stood at 2.62, up 0.09 from the previous trading day, while shipment sentiment was 3.59, up 0.1 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, inventory fell sharply, suppliers actively held prices firm, and spot premiums kept rising, with overall trading remaining moderate.

This week, the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China rebounded 1.1 percentage points MoM to 64%.

【SMM Copper Cathode Rod Flash News】Inventory side, high operating rates drove a slight increase in raw material stocking, while strong wait-and-see sentiment among downstream buyers and a slowdown in the pace of picking up goods slowed the destocking of finished product inventories. Copper cathode rod enterprises were expected to maintain high operating rates next week to ensure deliveries; if new orders remained weak, the production pace might slow after finished product inventories rebounded.

At first glance, the market reaction to the outbreak of war following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran appeared deeply counterintuitive.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,906.5/mt. It edged up slightly in early trading and, after hitting a high of $1,908/mt, fluctuated downward, with the price center continuing to move lower and touching a low of $1,883.5/mt. It then rebounded quickly and fluctuated rangebound within the $1,889.5-1,897.5/mt range, finally closing at $1,890/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, down $21.5/mt, or 1.12%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,390 yuan/mt. SHFE lead prices fell rapidly in early trading and touched a low of 16,365 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward and hit a high of 16,450 yuan/mt. During the session, SHFE lead prices fluctuated rangebound within 16,405-16,435 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,415 yuan/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, down 45 yuan/mt, or 0.27%. On the macro front: 1. US media: The US Department of Defense was considering redirecting military aid to Ukraine for use in the Middle East. 2. Turkey sold 22 mt of gold in a single week, the highest since 2018. 3. Trump: At the request of the Iranian government, strikes on Iran's energy facilities were postponed; Iran denied it. 4. Trump unveiled a "big gift" for Iran: allowing 10 oil tankers to pass through the strait. 5. Fuel surcharges on China domestic routes were set to rise on April 5. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums. Suppliers' quotations were slightly firm, and due to reduced circulating cargoes, some were quoted at premiums. Meanwhile, quotations for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site showed relatively small differences. Mainstream producing areas were quoted at premiums of 30-120 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price, ex-works. On the secondary lead side, smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices, and market quotations were limited. In some regions, secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 25-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises purchased as needed, with some mainly purchasing via long-term contracts and others replenishing some spot cargoes. Overall market transactions were average. Inventory: As of March 26, LME lead inventory decreased by 50 mt, or 0.02%, to 283,100 mt. SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions dropped back slightly. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Supply side: Quotations from suppliers of primary lead were slightly firm, and due to reduced circulating cargoes, some were quoted at premiums. This week, inventory of deliverable primary lead brands decreased by 6,800 mt WoW, which is expected to provide some support for primary lead prices; most secondary lead smelters did not offer quotations, while some cargoes were quoted ex-works at premiums of around 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. This week, the pace of work resumption at secondary lead smelters accelerated, with the operating rate rebounding 3.69% WoW, production increasing by 3,090 mt, and finished product inventories also accumulating on a weekly basis. Demand Side: Downstream procurement sentiment was mixed, with market participants waiting to see the new month's long-term contracts while purchasing as needed also coexisted, and overall market transactions were average. SMM expected lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,264.5/mt. After testing a low of $12,282.5/mt in early trading, its center fluctuated downward, nearing the close and hitting a low of $12,079/mt, before finally closing at $12,120/mt, down 1.33. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, open interest stood at 296,000 lots, an increase of 326 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears adding positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,350 yuan/mt, tested a low of 95,900 yuan/mt in early trading, and then its center moved lower to a low of 94,950 yuan/mt, before finally closing at 95,150 yuan/mt, down 0.45. Trading volume reached 39,000 lots, open interest stood at 188,000 lots, a decrease of 2,104 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bulls reducing positions overall.