SMM, July 10: Metals market side, overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 1.58%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.48%, SHFE lead fell 0.19%, SHFE zinc rose 1.26%, SHFE tin rose 2.26%, and SHFE nickel rose 1.08%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.29%, and the most-traded casting aluminum contract rose 0.63%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Stainless steel fell 0.59%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar fell 0.13%, and hot-rolled coil was flat at 3,297 yuan/mt. Coking coal and coke side, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2.79%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.15%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 1.71%, LME aluminum rose 2.29%, LME lead rose 0.19%, LME zinc rose 2.49%, LME tin rose 2.18%, and LME nickel rose 1.13%. Overnight, precious metals side : COMEX gold rose 1.23%, and COMEX silver rose 3.1%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.31%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 3.22%. According to Polish central bank Governor Grabinski, the bank purchased billions of dollars worth of gold during the recent dip in gold prices. At a press conference in Warsaw on Thursday, Grabinski said the bank has purchased 82 mt of gold so far this year. This means that since the last official data release in April, the bank added another 37 mt of gold, worth approximately $5 billion at current prices. “Taking advantage of the recent price decline, we have been continuously purchasing gold,” Grabinski said. Poland reported more gold purchases than any other central bank in 2025 and is expected to continue this record this year. Gold prices have fallen over 10% since April. Grabinski reiterated the Polish central bank’s target of 700 mt of gold reserves. He said the bank currently holds 632.4 mt of gold, of which 105 mt is stored in Poland and the rest is held in London and New York. (Jinshi Data APP) Bernstein raised its 2026 gold price forecast, expecting a H2 gold price target of $4,375 per ounce and a full-year target price of $4,533. The firm believes that continued central bank purchases and the high probability that the US Fed will not cut interest rates over the next 12 months will be key factors supporting gold prices. Bernstein expects the Fed to raise rates at most 1 to 2 times, and gold ETF outflow pressure will also be limited. Bernstein noted that in Q2 2026, rising real interest rates caused gold prices to pull back from $4,650/oz to around $4,000, but as rate expectations stabilize, gold still has upside room. The firm also warned that if inflation persistently exceeds expectations, prompting the Fed to hike rates more aggressively, that would become a major risk to gold’s upward movement. (Jinshi Data APP) As of 7:12 AM on July 10, overnight closing market data: Macro front China side: [State Council Issues “15th Five-Year Plan” Carbon Peak Action Plan: Carbon Emissions to Decrease 17% in 2030 Compared with 2025] On July 9, the “15th Five-Year Plan Carbon Peak Action Plan” was released, charting a “roadmap” for China to meet its carbon peak target before 2030. Over the next five years, China’s energy structure will undergo further adjustment and optimization. By 2030, China’s carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 17% from 2025 levels, and non-fossil energy consumption will account for 25% of the total. In terms of specific measures, the Action Plan clearly mandates accelerating energy structure adjustment and optimization and vigorously promoting non-fossil energy development. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, new electricity consumption will be increasingly covered by new clean energy generation. The Action Plan intensifies efforts to promote green and low-carbon industrial development, with a series of new measures being introduced. On one hand, it aims to deepen the low-carbon transition of traditional industries, advancing energy-saving and carbon-reduction projects in steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, petrochemical engineering and other key industries. On the other hand, it focuses on vigorously developing emerging green and low-carbon industries such as green energy, green manufacturing, and green services. For existing capacity, it emphasizes “improving quality through green transition,” guiding enterprises from a zero-sum cost-driven competition mindset toward an innovative approach of low-carbon and zero-carbon development. For new capacity, it stresses “cultivating the new with green transition,” nurturing and expanding strategic emerging and future industries characterized by green, low-carbon features. In the transportation sector, the Action Plan proposes that by 2030, the ownership share of NEVs should reach 30%, and the ownership share of new energy operating vehicles should reach 25%. By the end of 2025, national NEV ownership accounted for about 12%, meaning this share will more than double within five years. For ordinary citizens, private NEV ownership will further increase during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. US dollar side: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.14% to 100.93. The latest data shows that for the week ending July 4 (which includes the US Independence Day holiday), US initial jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 215,000, below market expectations of 217,000, remaining near historic lows. However, continuing claims, which reflect the re-employment situation for the unemployed, rose to 1.81 million, the highest level since March. Initial jobless claims persistently running low, together with recent non-farm payrolls data, paint a picture of a US labor market characterized by “reduced layoffs, slowing hiring.” (Wall Street News) Fed Chairman Warsh Kevin has established five working groups to conduct a comprehensive review of the Fed’s monetary policy operating framework, covering areas such as balance sheet management, policy tools, and the impact of artificial intelligence. The Fed stated that the working groups will operate independently, conduct fact-based studies, and submit rigorous analyses to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The review will assess whether there is room for improvement in policy tools, analytical methods, and the policy framework. The review teams include several prominent economists and former central bank officials. Among them, Harvard economist Chetty Raj will co-lead the data working group, tech investor Andreessen Marc will head the productivity and employment working group, and former White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Mankiw Gregory will co-lead the inflation working group. Warsh said that the US economy has undergone dramatic changes over the past generation, and the current transformation is occurring at a faster pace, so the Fed needs to ensure it is in optimal condition to achieve its dual mandate of price stability and maximizing employment. (Jinshi Data APP) Additionally, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s “Monthly Budget Review: June 2026,” the US federal budget deficit totaled approximately $1.4 trillion in the first nine months of fiscal year 2026, an increase of $35 billion compared to the same period last fiscal year. Federal revenues over the period were $4.2 trillion, up $142 billion or 4%, while outlays were $5.5 trillion, up $178 billion or 3%. (CCTV) New York Fed Open Market Account Manager Perli stated that reserve management purchase operations have no preset course, and the New York Fed’s open market trading desk can adjust purchase amounts higher or lower depending on money market conditions. Additionally, Perli said that amid Fed Chairman Warsh appointing a working group on the Fed’s balance sheet, the trading desk is ready to implement any changes and interest rate control frameworks the committee may decide to adopt. The Fed began conducting reserve management purchase operations last December, driven by expectations that reserves would decline rapidly in April as tax payments flowed into the Treasury General Account. When the Treasury’s account balance at the Fed increases, reserves in the banking system decline. (Jinshi Data APP) Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that if the FOMC conducts open market operations through a voluntarily participated central clearing mechanism, it would help improve operational efficiency and effectiveness, and enhance US financial market stability. Logan noted that such an arrangement could improve the use of Fed tools, such as the Standing Repo Facility, which aims to provide liquidity to eligible institutions but has seen relatively low market usage so far. Some believe that simplifying clearing processes could increase its attractiveness. She also stated that market leverage levels need to be carefully managed, and financial markets must maintain an appropriate balance between the benefits and risks of leverage, and between leverage and liquidity. (Jinshi Data APP) According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July is 74.9%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 25.1%. Probability for the September meeting: holding rates steady at 35.7%, a cumulative 25-basis-point hike at 51.1%, and a cumulative 50-basis-point hike at 13.1%. (Jinshi Data APP) Other currencies side: Minutes from the ECB’s June meeting showed the bank could no longer ignore the energy shock, projecting that rising energy prices would push medium-term inflation above its 2% target. The ECB Governing Council unanimously decided to raise key interest rates to 2.25% last month, becoming the first major central bank to hike rates due to elevated energy prices caused by the Iran war. The minutes stated: “The current situation clearly falls no longer into the category of shocks that can be looked through.” “The longer energy prices stay high, the more likely it is that they will push up broader inflation through indirect and second-round effects. This increases the risk that the energy shock becomes entrenched in underlying inflation and medium- to long-term inflation expectations.” (Jinshi Data APP) Macro side: Data scheduled for release today include Germany’s June CPI final monthly rate, France’s June CPI final monthly rate, Switzerland’s June consumer confidence index, Canada’s June employment change, China’s June M2 money supply annual rate, China’s June year-to-date new yuan loans, and China’s June year-to-date aggregate social financing growth. Also in focus: 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan’s speech; SK Hynix’s American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) are tentatively scheduled to list on Nasdaq this July 10. Crude oil side: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI oil down 2.33% and Brent oil down 2.72%. Although US-Iran military conflict escalated overnight, the market’s actual reaction was notably subdued, with crude oil closing lower. Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad noted that the market views this attack as another “controlled escalation,” based on the premise that the economy can withstand the shock. Goldman Sachs’ Privorotsky shared a similar view, indicating that the market signal suggests no real interest from any party in expanding the conflict, preferring instead to maintain bargaining leverage. However, Privorotsky also warned that while crude oil prices have pulled back, the refined product prices that actually feed into inflation have yet to follow. (Wall Street News) The US Central Command stated that Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz. Since early May, US forces have been assisting in safeguarding navigational safety in this vital international trade route, with over 800 merchant ships and 380 million barrels of crude oil successfully passing through the strait. (Jinshi Data APP) Additionally, sources said that the Saratov refinery in Russia has been shut down since Wednesday following a drone attack. (Jinshi Data APP)

SMM Jul. 6 News: Metals Market Update: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market all rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.26%, SHFE aluminum gained 0.84%. SHFE lead ticked higher. SHFE zinc added 0.97%. SHFE tin surged 2.9%. SHFE nickel inched up 0.12%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract rose 0.48%, while the most-traded alumina contract dipped 0.15%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 2.19%. The most-traded silicon metal contract climbed 0.48%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract gained 0.45%. Ferrous metals all advanced. Iron ore, HRC, and rebar each rose within 0.5%. Stainless steel added 0.89%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract increased 0.82%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.06%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:45, LME metals all advanced. LME copper gained 0.74%, LME aluminum rose 0.71%, LME lead climbed 1.07%. LME zinc ticked up 0.1%, LME tin surged 3.94%. LME nickel added 0.61%. Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold advanced 1.27%, and COMEX silver jumped 2.24%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.62%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 0.5%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.2%, while the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 1.17%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container freight index (Europe) futures contract slid 2.56% to 2,592.5 points. As of 11:45 on Jul. 6, select futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Nickel: On Jul. 6, SMM #1 refined nickel price declined 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. For spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel stood at 2,300 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the prior day DoD... Macro Front China: [PBOC Reverse Repo Operation Results in Net Injection of 49.5 Billion Yuan] The PBOC conducted 7 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 1,000 billion yuan in outright reverse repos today. With 157.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 800 billion yuan in outright reverse repos maturing, the day saw a net injection of 49.5 billion yuan. (Jinshi Data APP) [Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport’s Foreign Visitor Arrivals, Share Hit Record Highs] As of 0:00 on Jul. 6, Baiyun Port station of the Guangzhou General Station of Immigration Inspection reported over 4 million foreign entries and exits at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport this year, up 34% YoY and accounting for over 41% of the airport’s total passenger flow. The growth rate topped the national average by 8 percentage points, with both volume and share reaching record highs. Overall, the port has handled over 10 million inbound and outbound passenger trips, up 19.6% YoY, crossing the 10 million mark 34 days earlier than in 2025. Inbound and outbound flights exceeded 63,000, up 14% YoY. (CCTV News) US dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index was up 0.09% at 100.95. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the US Fed holds rates steady in July is 77%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 23%. For September, the probability of no change is 41.9%, a cumulative 25bp hike 47.6%, and a cumulative 50bp hike 10.5%. Goncalves George, head of US macro strategy at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Americas, said Warsh’s concise style gives the June meeting minutes greater weight than usual and offers a valuable lens into the differing stances among Fed officials. “The minutes will become more important because, so far, we don’t know what the Fed is thinking,” Goncalves George said. “It will be instructive to see how they debate and what they focus on.” He added that some investors have already questioned Warsh’s hands-off approach, and many would like to see greater transparency restored. Many market participants are not accustomed to the reduced flow of information, and there remains a considerable degree of skepticism over how long the Fed can maintain this. For now, we have to read between the lines. In a research note, Wan Michael, senior FX analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, said markets appear to be in a wait-and-see mode, looking for the next catalyst for the US dollar and US interest rates. Looking ahead, “global markets will seek direction from key data points such as the US ISM services data and Fed minutes later this week, and US CPI next week,” he said. In addition, the market is also closely watching whether Japanese authorities intervened in the currency market last week to curb yen weakness, so this uncertainty risk should not be underestimated as USD/JPY continues to hover near the 162 level. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: As imports surge while export growth stalls, the boost from the mining boom to Australia’s trade appears to be fading, and the country may face its first annual trade deficit since 2016. This year, the goods trade surplus has narrowed sharply as the data center construction boom drives a surge in imports of fuel and equipment, while exports have stagnated. This trend appears set to continue, with the Australian government forecasting that export revenue from key commodities will grow only 3% in the current fiscal year compared with the previous one. The mining investment boom drove a surge in exports of iron ore, natural gas, and other commodities, fueling years of economic expansion and wealth accumulation. A return to deficits, however, could weigh on the Australian dollar and constrain the government’s fiscal space. Economist James McIntyre said, “Commodity price declines are expected to weigh on export revenues. As a result, the trade surpluses and occasional current account surpluses recorded over the past decade may give way to a pattern of deficits.” (Jin10 Data App) Data: Today, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rates for France and Switzerland in June, the eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, the eurozone May PPI monthly rate, the eurozone May retail sales monthly rate, the US June S&P Global Services PMI final, the US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and the US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, among other data, will be released. Additionally, speeches are expected from Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Riksbank Deputy Governor Seim. Crude Oil: As of 11:45, oil prices on both exchanges fell, with WTI down 0.38% and Brent down 0.57%. Oil prices were weighed down by OPEC+’s latest decision to raise output. After an online meeting on Sunday, the group said it would increase output by about 188,000 barrels per day in August, marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase. However, analysts at ANZ Research said in a note, “Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, members may struggle to utilize this additional capacity due to ongoing risks to vessels.” The analysts noted, “During the weekend, multiple vessels were observed making abrupt course reversals while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz along the Oman route.” (Jin10 Data App) A statement showed that OPEC+ will raise oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day in August. The seven core members of OPEC+, which comprises OPEC and allies including Russia, have collectively raised production quotas by nearly 800,000 barrels per day from April to July. However, because the US-Israeli war on Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker shipments for some of the most important OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq, previous increases have largely remained on paper. (Jin10 Data App) According to agency reports, the number of vessels transiting the channel along the Omani coast of the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply on Sunday. A day earlier, multiple vessels sailing out of the strait along that channel abruptly executed sharp course reversals, underscoring Iran’s ongoing tightening of control over this strategic waterway. A product tanker that turned back on Saturday appears to be attempting passage again, having now passed the northernmost tip of Oman's Musandam Peninsula. Earlier, another product tanker transited the same route and openly broadcast its voyage intent, and is now broadcasting its position in the Gulf of Oman. Some vessels have opted for "dark transit" through the strait. A Suezmax crude tanker, which last broadcast its position in the Persian Gulf on Saturday, appeared in the Gulf of Oman on Sunday. Between Friday and Saturday, at least eight vessels suddenly turned around while transiting the Strait of Hormuz along the Omani lanes. Four of them then altered course northward, exiting the strait via the Iranian side. There is no official explanation for the sudden turnaround of these vessels. However, Iran has repeatedly stated that ships can only transit the Strait of Hormuz through Iranian-designated and -authorized lanes. According to Kpler data, on Saturday a total of 19 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in both directions, but only one openly indicated it would enter the strait along the Omani coastal lanes, compared to 13 on Friday. The above statistics cover only observable vessel movements. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM July 4 news: Metal market: Last Friday night, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper gained 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.6%, SHFE lead added 0.38%, SHFE zinc increased 0.87%, and SHFE tin jumped 3.8%. SHFE nickel edged down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.07%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Last Friday night, ferrous metals mostly closed higher. Stainless steel dropped 1.85%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar gained 0.39%, and hot-rolled coil added 0.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.21%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.6%. Last Friday night, in the overseas market, LME base metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 0.54%, LME aluminum added 0.23%, LME lead rose 1.04%, LME zinc climbed 2.17%, LME tin surged 4.99%, and LME nickel rose 0.4%. Last Friday night, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.49%, posting a weekly gain of 2.22%; COMEX silver gained 2.87%, closing the week higher with a 5.26% increase. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.81%, ending the week up 3.5%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 1.61%, posting a weekly rise of 8.82%. JPMorgan said that in the short term, gold prices may be capped by weakening demand and are likely to remain moving sideways overall. The main reasons are weaker purchasing power in key demand areas and renewed sensitivity of gold to changes in real interest rates, which may limit further price gains. However, the bank maintains a medium- to long-term bullish outlook. It expects gold to gradually rebound in H2 2026, with an average price of around $4,300 per ounce in Q3, rising to about $4,500 in Q4. Looking ahead to 2027, JPMorgan believes the rally may continue, driven mainly by continued central bank buying, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation needs. These factors will support gold's long-term appeal as a safe-haven and reserve asset. As of 7:41 a.m. on July 4, last Friday night's closing quotations: Macro front China: [Li Qiang: Take more forceful measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating high-level self-reliance in science and technology, building a strong domestic market, and deepening reforms and expanding opening up] On July 1, Premier Li Qiang, also secretary of the CPC Leadership Group of the State Council, presided over a meeting of the group to study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech at the celebration of the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and Xi Jinping Thought on Party Building. The meeting emphasized the need to strive for new achievements in high-quality development, strengthen initiative and a sense of urgency in work, and take more robust measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating self-reliance in high-level science and technology, developing a strong domestic market, and deepening reform and expanding opening up. It called for taking solid action, shouldering responsibilities, and striving to carry forward the baton of history, so as to make greater contributions to building a strong country and achieving national rejuvenation. (Xinhua News Agency) [The State Council: Increasing Efforts in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries such as Steel and Non-Ferrous Metals to Achieve Energy Savings of More Than 150 Million mt of Standard Coal] Recently, the State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful China,” clarifying the overall requirements, targets and indicators, key tasks, and major projects for comprehensively advancing the building of a Beautiful China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The Plan proposes that by 2030, the quality of the ecological environment will be comprehensively improved, and new significant progress will be made in building a Beautiful China. Green production and lifestyles will be essentially in place, the carbon peak target will be met as scheduled, total emissions of major pollutants will continue to decline, comprehensive solid waste management capacity and level will be significantly enhanced, urban and rural living environments will be notably improved, the diversity, stability, and sustainability of ecosystems will be continuously strengthened, nuclear and radiation safety levels will keep rising, national ecological security will be effectively guaranteed, an ecological and environmental governance system adapted to the requirements of building a Beautiful China will be steadily refined, a number of demonstration models for building a Beautiful China will be established, and the people’s sense of gain, happiness, and security from the ecological environment will be continuously enhanced. It also makes an outlook on the 2035 targets and proposes accelerating the formation of the overall layout for building a Beautiful China. (Xinhua News Agency) The Plan mentions increasing efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation in key industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and building materials, promoting and popularizing energy-saving and low-carbon technologies, and achieving energy savings of more than 150 million mt of standard coal. With the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas as the focus, industrial coal-fired boilers with a capacity of 65 steam tonnes per hour or below will be gradually phased out. The substitution of clean energy for coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns in industries such as food, textiles, and papermaking will be advanced. [Ministry of Finance and Two Other Departments: Adjusting Vehicle and Vessel Tax Preferential Policies for Energy-Saving Vehicles and NEVs] On July 2, the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on adjusting vehicle and vessel tax preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles. It states that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the exemption from vehicle and vessel tax for pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles will be abolished. Vehicles of the above types newly acquired by taxpayers or acquired before the implementation of this announcement shall be subject to vehicle and vessel tax in accordance with the Vehicle and Vessel Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, its implementation regulations, and other relevant provisions. [PBOC: To conduct 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on July 6, with 3-month tenor] To keep banking system liquidity ample, on July 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation via a fixed-quantity, interest rate tender with multiple-price winning bids, with a tenor of 3 months (91 days), maturing on October 5, 2026 (adjusted for holidays if it falls on a holiday). (Jinshi Data APP) On the dollar front: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 100.91. On the weekly chart: The dollar index fell on a weekly basis, down 0.44% for the week, its biggest weekly decline since mid-April. The decline occurred as US June employment data cooled noticeably, leading the market to lower expectations for near-term Fed rate hikes, and the dollar index fell this week. Against a weaker dollar backdrop, the euro rose to $1.1440, up about 0.5% for the week; sterling rose to $1.3352, up about 1.1% for the week, its best performance in nearly three months. The yen rebounded from near a 40-year low, with USD/JPY once pulling back to around 161, though still at elevated levels. Japan continued to release signals of forex intervention, with finance and cabinet officials stating they are closely monitoring markets and remain prepared to intervene. Analysts pointed out that the dollar's movement has clearly been influenced by employment data and interest rate expectations, and if subsequent economic data continue to weaken, the dollar could still face further pressure. However, whether the yen can sustain its rebound still depends on the US-Japan interest rate differential and Japan's policy actions. (Jinshi Data APP) "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos said: Trump stated that he considers Fed Chairman Warsh to be on the dovish side within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). A day earlier, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett made similar remarks; a week earlier, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he hoped the Fed would remain "open-minded" on inflation and expects the Fed to ease policy this year. A new era of "forward guidance"... (Jinshi Data APP) BNP Paribas Chief Economist Isabel Mateos y Lago said: "If July's nonfarm payrolls are very strong, close to or exceeding 130,000, then I think the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be as high now, but in my view, the case for a Fed rate hike remains valid." Ahead of the July 4 holiday, short-term interest rate futures markets expected a roughly 20% probability of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 rate decision, down from 33% before the release of the payrolls report. Markets still expect the US Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points this year, but not until December at the earliest. For the ECB, Lagarde said, "The baseline expectation remains another rate hike in September. But it is worth noting that Governing Council members speaking at the Sintra meeting did not rule out skipping this additional hike." She warned that the normalization of energy supply could take six months or longer to take effect, and eurozone inflation could accelerate again. Even so, she also believes that consumer prices outside energy-affected areas will not face pressure. Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran said, "The US non-farm payrolls data was actually weak, but I still think inflation will peak above 3.7%, and AI, fiscal stimulus and the energy sector are still supporting economic growth. The US Fed may have to raise rates in September. I think this is where the real divergence between Europe and the US lies." Subran believes that after last month's hike, the ECB will not act again. "That was an insurance hike, but judging from the current data, it seems that moment has passed," he said. "The trauma effect of the war (with Iran) takes time to manifest. The economy is still bearing the costs of war, but the situation is much better than a few weeks ago."(Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member Mullan said that as falling oil prices ease price pressures in the eurozone, the ECB is in a favorable position after last month's rate hike. Mullan said that while it is too early to predict the next two meetings in July and September, officials have made clear that "we will not enter a new rate-hiking cycle." Mullan said, "For now, we are in a favorable position. The balance of risks is also at a reasonable level." Mullan added, "Falling oil prices will ease inflation pressure in the services sector," and "we have not yet seen second-round effects."(Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of Switzerland June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone May PPI m/m, Eurozone May retail sales m/m, US June S&P Global Services PMI Final, US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Germany May seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, UK June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France May trade balance, US ADP employment change for the week ended June 20, US May trade balance, China June foreign exchange reserves, Japan May trade balance, New Zealand interest rate decision for July 8, US May wholesale sales m/m, China June CPI y/y, China June PPI y/y, Germany May seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, US June existing home sales annualized, Germany June CPI m/m final, France June CPI m/m final, Switzerland June consumer confidence index, Canada June employment change, China June M2 money supply y/y, and other data. Additionally, events to watch this week include: a 900 billion yuan outright reverse repo maturing today; speeches from Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank Seim; Turkey hosts the NATO summit through July 8; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its interest rate decision; RBNZ Governor Bremman holds a monetary policy press conference; the Fed releases minutes of its monetary policy meeting; the ECB releases minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; and 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan delivers a speech. Crude Oil: In overnight trading last Friday, both oil futures edged up slightly, with WTI up 0.13% and Brent up 0.19%. On the weekly chart: WTI futures fell for a fourth consecutive week, down 0.65% for the week; Brent futures also declined for a fourth straight week, down 0.91% for the week. The crude oil market is relatively stable, with Brent stabilizing near $72 per barrel as the market weighs the supply outlook around the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of US-Iran negotiations. (Wall Street News) Data from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) show: In the week ending June 30, Brent crude futures speculators cut their net long positions by 34,704 contracts to 55,634 contracts. Gasoil futures speculators cut their net long positions by 2,664 contracts to 57,852 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Data show that oil exports from the Gulf region in June increased by more than 3 million barrels per day (bpd) from May, exceeding 10 million bpd, but still 40% below pre-war levels. The UAE led the recovery in oil markets, enabling millions of barrels of crude stranded in the Gulf region to enter international markets, allowing producers to raise output and push oil prices down to pre-war levels. Kpler data show that combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran rose by more than 3.5 million bpd from May to 10.07 million bpd. Vortexa, another cargo analytics firm, estimated June shipments at 10.2 million bpd, up from 7 million bpd in May, but still well below the 16.5 million bpd recorded a year earlier. According to data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG, the UAE’s crude exports reached a record 3.7 million to 3.8 million bpd in June, more than 1 million bpd above May’s level. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, three sources said that Venezuela’s largest refinery, the 645,000-bpd Amuay refinery, has resumed operations after a power outage on Friday and is currently processing about 140,000 bpd of crude, with the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit also back online. Following two earthquakes last week that caused heavy casualties, multiple refineries in Venezuela were affected by power outages. Sources also said that the El Palito refinery, with a daily processing capacity of 146,000 barrels, has had power restored, but staff have not yet been able to restart the production units. (Jinshi Data APP) A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production rebounded sharply in June, up about 3.3 million barrels per day MoM to 19.43 million barrels per day, a clear rebound from May’s more-than-two-decade low, but still well below quota levels. The recovery in output mainly came from Gulf countries restoring supply, with Kuwait posting the largest increase; Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq also raised output in tandem. Nigeria and Libya likewise made small increases. The UAE exited OPEC on May 1 and is no longer included in the statistics. The report noted that the earlier Iran war and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted supply; the US subsequently lifted restrictions on vessels at Iranian ports, helping some output recover. Although OPEC+ had planned to increase production in June, the plan was not fully implemented due to the war. Overall, global crude oil supply was being repaired, but had not yet returned to normal levels. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended Reading:

Futures: Last Friday, LME lead opened higher with a gap at $1,870.5/mt, drifted higher during the Asian session; after entering the European session, bulls added positions while bears exited, and LME lead hit a high of $1,898/mt. It moved sideways near the close and finally settled at $1,888/mt, up 1.04%. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at a low of 15,885 yuan/mt, moved sideways around the daily average line, with an intraday high of 15,965 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 15,930 yuan/mt, up 0.28%. On the macro front: ECB Governing Council member Mullan said that after last month's rate hike, inflation has pulled back with the plunge in crude oil prices, and the central bank is now in a favorable position. As tax revenue fell short of expectations, Germany plans to increase its borrowing target for 2027. Seven major OPEC+ oil-producing countries decided to increase crude oil production by 188,000 barrels per day on average in August. South Korea plans to use the tax dividends from the chip industry to set up a future fund to invest in economic growth engines and support the younger generation. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development." In June, the RatingDog China Services PMI stood at 54.1, down 0.3 percentage points from May, in expansion territory for the 42nd consecutive month. Three departments: adjust the vehicle and vessel tax preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles and NEVs. Hon Hai: June sales were NT$821.8 billion, up 52.1% YoY. Spot fundamentals: After stopping falling, SHFE lead rebounded, and suppliers actively quoted and sold, but after the lead price rose, downstream enterprises engaged in more negotiations, resulting in stagnant deals. Meanwhile, quotations for EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters saw lower premiums/discounts, with mainstream producing areas offering at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, some smelters were in reduced or suspended production, with limited circulating supply in the market. Some secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, and downstream customers' rigid demand shifted toward primary lead. Also, after prices rebounded, dip-buying interest waned, and market trading was sluggish. Inventory: On July 3, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,300 mt to 293,150 mt; as of July 2, total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions tracked by SMM reached 72,500 mt, up 1,300 mt from June 29. Today's lead price forecast: Last week, amid a bearish fund frenzy, SHFE lead fell to a more than two-year low, causing widening losses for lead smelters and forcing secondary lead enterprises to reduce or suspend production again. Signs of bear exit then emerged, and lead prices stopped falling and rebounded. This week, we need to watch downstream enterprises' purchasing dynamics. If lead ingot destocking materializes, lead prices may continue to rebound; otherwise, vigilance is needed against the bears that have not yet exited.

SMM July 1: Metals market: Overnight, base metals broadly rose in both domestic and overseas markets, with only LME lead, LME nickel, and SHFE lead declining—LME lead fell 1.08%, LME nickel fell 0.55%, and SHFE lead fell 0.47%. The rest of the metals all gained. LME tin and SHFE tin surged over 2%, with LME tin up 2.58% and SHFE tin up 2.25%. LME zinc and SHFE zinc rose over 1%, with LME zinc up 1.85% and SHFE zinc up 1.4%. Gains in the remaining metals were all within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 0.25%, while cast aluminum main contract rose 0.42%. Overnight in the ferrous metals sector, most prices rose except for stainless steel. Stainless steel gained 0.92%, while iron ore fell 0.27%. Declines in other metals were modest. For coking coal and coke, coking coal edged up 0.08% and coke fell 0.15%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.42%, at one point dipping to a low of $3,955.4/oz, while COMEX silver rose 0.7%. Domestically, SHFE gold gained 0.8% and SHFE silver surged 3.43%. As of 6:44 am July 1, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic side: [NBS: June manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, China’s economic sentiment rebounds somewhat] National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed that the June manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, returning to expansion territory. By enterprise size, large enterprise PMI was 50.7%, down 0.4 ppt from May but still above the threshold; medium-sized enterprise PMI was 50.5%, up 1.9 ppts, above the threshold; small enterprise PMI was 48.2%, down 0.3 ppt, below the threshold. Among the five sub-indexes that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index and new orders index were above the threshold, while the raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the threshold. Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the NBS Service Industry Survey Center, commented on China’s June 2026 PMIs. The non-manufacturing business activity index for June was 50.2%, up 0.1 ppt from May, indicating a modest rebound in non-manufacturing sentiment. The services sector expanded at a faster pace. The services business activity index was 50.4%, up 0.1 ppt, showing some improvement. By sector, business activity indexes for telecommunications, broadcasting, satellite transmission services, internet software and information technology services, monetary and financial services, and insurance were all in the high-expansion territory above 55.0%, with rapid growth in total business volume. Air transport and real estate continued to operate below the threshold. The services business activity expectations index stood at 56.0%, up 0.6 ppt from May, reflecting improved corporate expectations for market development. Construction activity showed some improvement. The construction business activity index was 49.0%, up 0.2 ppt, edging up slightly. The construction business activity expectations index was 51.1%, remaining in expansion. [MIIT and eight other departments: Promote integrated planning and synchronous construction of industrial internet infrastructure and computing infrastructure such as smart computing facilities and supercomputing facilities] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and eight other departments issued a notice on the “Implementation Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Development of the Industrial Internet.” It proposes to enhance computing support. Promote integrated planning and synchronous construction of industrial internet infrastructure and computing infrastructure such as smart computing facilities and supercomputing facilities. Explore building an industrial computing network system, strengthen the dynamic coordination of multi-level computing capabilities across end, edge, and cloud, and meet the computing, network, storage, and usage needs of various entities’ business development. Rely on the integrated computing network to strengthen computing interconnectivity, improve the matching supply of intelligent and edge computing power, enhance the ability to process and deeply refine massive heterogeneous data at high speed, and deeply empower scenarios such as industrial large-model training and real-time interaction in the industrial metaverse. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.06% to 101.17. Federal funds rate futures traders are increasingly betting that the Fed could start raising rates as soon as July. This previously unthinkable move could be disrupted by a series of economic data. The probability of a rate hike at the July policy meeting remains low, with interest-rate swaps currently pricing in about 9 basis points of tightening, implying roughly a 36% chance of a 25bp hike. Nonetheless, that probability has risen markedly; before new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh shifted his focus to price stability, the odds were nearly zero. (From Wallstreetcn app) On the data front, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed job openings edged up in May, but the pace of new hires pulled back. Data showed that at the end of May, total job openings across the US rose by 9,000 from the prior month to 7.594 million, above economists’ forecast of 7.3 million. The April figure was revised down from an initially reported 7.618 million to 7.585 million. The increase in openings was mainly concentrated in professional and business services and very small businesses with fewer than ten employees. The job openings rate held steady at 4.6%. Hiring declined by 45,000 to 5.17 million, with the hiring rate stable at 3.3%. US job gains have accelerated sharply for three straight months, and the market had been optimistic that the labor market was returning to a recovery path after a soft patch in 2025. However, the strong payroll gains have been largely driven by a simultaneous decline in both layoffs and quits, rather than by a pickup in hiring by businesses. (Jin10 Data) HSBC said that a sharp rally in the US dollar could be one of the biggest “pain trades” in the second half of this year. The bank expects the dollar to strengthen gradually in the first half of 2027, and warned that if the Fed signals a stronger readiness to tighten policy than the market expects, and if geopolitical tensions flare up again, the dollar could see an “explosive” rally. Risks have increased since the Fed’s June meeting, when policymakers focused on inflation and offered little forward guidance. That shifted market attention back to interest-rate differentials and helped the dollar strengthen against major currencies over the past two weeks. “A stronger dollar will certainly cause pain, but we think the ‘pain trade’ in FX will be an explosive dollar rally,” analysts including Paul Mackel wrote in a June 29 note. (Bloomberg) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed holding rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 33.7%. For the September meeting, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 33.1%, a cumulative 25bp hike stands at 50.0%, and a cumulative 50bp hike at 16.9%. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro side: Today will see the release of China’s June RatingDog manufacturing PMI, US June Challenger job cuts, US June ADP employment change, final reading of US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI, US June ISM manufacturing PMI, US May construction spending m/m, UK June Nationwide house price index m/m, final UK June manufacturing PMI, Switzerland May real retail sales y/y, final French June manufacturing PMI, final German June manufacturing PMI, final Eurozone June manufacturing PMI, preliminary Eurozone June CPI y/y, and preliminary Eurozone June CPI m/m. In addition, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will speak at the “Policy Panel” event at the ECB Global Central Bank Forum. The Davos Tech Summit will be held July 1-4, with the theme “Physical AI and Robotics.” It is noteworthy that on July 1, the Hong Kong Exchange is closed for Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with Southbound and Northbound trading shut. The Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada is closed for Canada Day. Crude oil: Overnight, oil prices fell in both markets, with US oil down 1.02% and Brent down 0.65%. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported in its monthly data released Tuesday that US crude oil production climbed to a record 13.93 million barrels per day in April, driven by the Iran war boosting oil prices and producers ramping up output. EIA data showed that output increased by 216,000 bpd in April, with New Mexico hitting a record 2.37 million bpd. Texas crude production edged up 36,000 bpd to 5.83 million bpd, the highest since last November. Texas and New Mexico share the Permian Basin, which accounts for about half of total US crude output. The third-largest producing state, North Dakota, saw output rise to 1.13 million bpd, also the highest since last November. (From Wallstreetcn app) American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that last week, US API crude inventories fell by 6.072 million barrels, after a 765,000-barrel draw the prior week. API Cushing crude inventories rose by 503,000 barrels, compared with a draw of 982,000 barrels the previous week. API gasoline inventories fell by 2.106 million barrels (vs. a build of 1.238 million barrels the prior week), while distillate inventories rose by 2.922 million barrels (vs. a build of 1.447 million barrels the prior week). (From Wallstreetcn app) Russia’s crude oil exports are surging to record highs, causing a buildup of crude at sea, while the price of crude, Moscow’s main source of revenue, is falling sharply. According to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, Russia’s average daily seaborne crude exports rose to 4.13 million barrels in the four weeks through June 28. That is the highest since the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted in 2022; before the conflict, a large portion of Russian oil was sent to Western Europe via pipelines. The export surge means Russian oil inventories at sea have increased by about a third since mid-April lows, and cargoes are starting to accumulate off the coast of Egypt and Singapore, suggesting Moscow may face increasing difficulty in placing all its volumes. The rise in exports comes as Ukraine continues to attack Russian refineries, which may force crude that cannot be processed domestically to be exported. (Jin10 Data APP)

[SMM Aluminum Express] ECB Governing Council member Nagel said that inflation would continue to be significantly above target for a sustained period, and it was still too early to judge the timing of rate hikes; uncertainty in the Middle East was high, the pullback in energy prices had exceeded expectations, and inflation might stay high.

SMM June 22: Metals markets: On Friday night, the domestic base metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at the performance of domestic base metals on June 18, we see: Domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE zinc up 0.39%, SHFE aluminum up 0.38%, and SHFE nickel edging up. SHFE tin fell 2.03%, SHFE copper fell 0.48%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. On Friday night, the ferrous metals market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Looking back at ferrous metals on June 18: Stainless steel rose 0.07%, iron ore fell 1.13%, rebar fell 0.95%. Hot-rolled coil fell 0.77%. The most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 5.78%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 3%. On Friday night in the overseas metals market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.5%. LME aluminum rose 0.12%, LME lead fell 1.32%. LME zinc fell 2.05%. LME tin rose 0.19%. LME nickel fell 1.41%. On Friday night in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.72%, posting a third consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 1.55%; COMEX silver fell 2.12%, marking its sixth consecutive weekly decline, with a weekly drop of 4.51%. On Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract was closed; SHFE gold posted a weekly gain, up 4.11% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract was closed; SHFE silver posted a weekly gain, up 5.25% for the week. As it no longer expects the US Fed to cut interest rates in 2026, Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven wrote in a note: "We revised down our December gold price target to $4,900/oz (previous target $5,400), implying gold is still expected to rise in H2, though by less than previously expected. Our view on gold remains structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risks and medium-term upside risks." The analysts said the downgrade was driven by Goldman Sachs economists pushing back the first US rate cut to June and December next year, from prior expectations of December 2026 and March 2027, and also by a lower forecast for gold ETF inflows. Additionally, they added that concerns over central bank independence may be limited given the "unexpectedly hawkish" first Fed meeting under Chair Warsh. (Jinshi) As of 7:47 a.m. June 20, closing prices from Friday night: Macro front China side: [NFRA: Promote the construction of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry] The National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) issued guidance on the development and application of safe AI in the banking and insurance sectors. It proposes to promote the construction of an AI application ecosystem in the financial sector. Advance the development of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry and promote the sharing and reuse of AI application outcomes across the sector. Encourage large financial institutions to play an exemplary role and export AI technologies and management experience to small and medium-sized financial institutions. Support small and medium-sized financial institutions in strengthening collaboration to jointly drive the implementation of application scenarios. Encourage closer synergy with the AI industry, using financial applications to foster industrial innovation and development, and leveraging industrial achievements to improve the quality and efficiency of financial applications. [Box office on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday surpasses 100 million yuan, number of new releases hits a near-decade high for the same period] According to data from online platforms, as of now, the box office (including pre-sales) on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday has exceeded 100 million yuan. The film offerings during the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival are diverse and rich in genre. Over the short three-day holiday, nearly 20 films were released in concentrated fashion, setting a new high for the same period in nearly a decade. The film genres cover sci-fi, youth, animation, and more, addressing the viewing needs of audiences across almost all age groups. (CCTV News) [Guangdong: Accelerate the construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and make forward-looking plans for 6G technology and satellite internet] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that the deployment of 5G-A networks and pilot projects for 10G optical networks will be advanced in an orderly manner. 50G-PON ports will be deployed on a large scale in key scenarios such as factories and industrial parks. The upgrading and renovation of aging communication facilities will be further promoted, with FTTR whole-home optical network coverage to be achieved simultaneously in both new and older residential communities. Mobile network coverage along major transportation routes and hubs will be improved, and initiatives to increase broadband speeds and benefit the public will be implemented, driving an overall leap in broadband user download rates. The construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be accelerated, the spatial layout of data centers optimized, edge computing vigorously developed, and a “cloud-edge-device” collaborative computing power service system created. Forward-looking plans will be made for 6G technology and satellite internet, a Guangdong 6G Industry Innovation and Development Alliance will be established, and ministerial-provincial 6G collaborative pilot projects will be promoted, with a focus on creating application benchmarks for distinctive scenarios such as embodied AI, intelligent connected vehicles, the low-altitude economy, and the marine economy. [Guangdong: Support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in enriching its futures product system and improving the full futures industry chain] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that efforts will be made to cultivate and strengthen high-quality investment banks and investment institutions, encourage leading securities firms and fund management companies to enhance their service capabilities, compliance management capabilities, and market leadership, attract well-known domestic and international asset management institutions to establish corporate headquarters or regional headquarters in Guangdong, and encourage the development of the investment advisory business. Leverage the comprehensive service functions of the capital market, guide and support cities in improving the reserve pools of IPO-ready enterprises and M&A and restructuring projects, collaborate with exchanges, brokerages and other institutions to thoroughly deliver full-cycle counseling services for pre-IPO enterprises, optimize approval processes for land use rights, property, stock transfers involved in M&A and restructuring of publicly listed firms, and encourage enterprises to expand the issuance scale of sci-tech bonds, green bonds, and asset securitization products. (From Wallstreetcn APP) [Weifang: Expand the implementation of 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities] The Weifang Municipal Bureau of Commerce issued an announcement on expanding the implementation of Weifang's 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy activities. According to the province-wide unified categories and standards, subsidies will be provided to individual consumers purchasing range hoods, household gas stoves (including integrated stoves), water purifiers, dishwashers, hearing aids, robot vacuums (including floor scrubbers), walking-assist exoskeleton robots, smart toilets, and other products. Individual consumers purchasing the above subsidized category products within Weifang will receive a subsidy of 15% of the final selling price after deducting discounts at all stages. Each person is limited to one subsidized item per category, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item, and the delivery place of the subsidized products must be within the administrative area of Weifang. (Published by Weifang) [Shanghai International Energy Exchange Issues Notice on Launch of Market Orders and Order Quantities for Related Trading Instructions] According to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, market orders will be launched starting July 6, 2026 (i.e., the continuous trading session on the evening of July 3, 2026). Market orders are applicable to all listed futures and options products. For limit orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots for futures products and 100 lots for options products. For market orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 60 lots for futures products and 30 lots for options products. For settlement price trading orders, the minimum order quantity per order is 1 lot, and the maximum order quantity per order is 500 lots. Dollar aspects: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 100.76, hitting a high of 101.13 and a low of 100.69 during the session. On the weekly chart: the US dollar index rose for the week, up 0.97% for the week. Market pricing showed that bets on Fed rate hikes increased, with a 25-basis-point rate hike in September fully priced in. Data showed that foreign exchange traders, including hedge funds, were buying large amounts of options, betting that the dollar would strengthen further after the Fed sends a hawkish signal this week and reinforces US rate hike expectations. According to traders, leveraged funds started buying dollar call options on Wednesday, which would increase in value if the dollar appreciates. That demand extended into Thursday as investors digested the new Fed Chairman Warsh's anti-inflation remarks. Bank of America’s head of Americas FX options, Tobias Jungmann, said: “We’re seeing massive dollar call buying, concentrated mainly in G-10 currencies. Given how low implied volatility is currently, building long dollar positions via options looks very attractive.” James Swindell, senior FX options trader at Barclays in London, said: “We’re seeing broad-based, notable demand for dollar calls, especially in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.” (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 60.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike stands at 39.6%. By the September meeting, the probability of unchanged rates is 31.2%, with a 49.6% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 19.1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) On other currencies: ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said on Thursday that eurozone inflation will remain elevated despite the recent pullback in energy prices. The ECB raised rates last week for the first time in nearly three years, responding to the surge in energy prices since the Middle East conflict erupted in late February. However, oil and natural gas prices subsequently tumbled after Iran and the US announced a peace deal. Lane said the ECB has no doubts about the correctness of the rate-hike decision and still expects inflation to stay above the 2% target for a prolonged period. “We think food prices will rise, and prices of goods and services will rise too. Even in a milder scenario where oil prices pull back, the rate hike was justified,” he said. Separately, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch said: If we see rising services inflation, we could consider another 25bp rate hike as insurance. If the data are ambiguous, I see no need to rush into action. (Jin10 Data) [Bank of England keeps rates on hold in a 7-2 vote, says it will watch Middle East situation closely] The BoE kept the interest rate at 3.75%, calling the recent drop in oil prices “encouraging,” though two policymakers voted for an immediate 25bp hike, worried about persistent inflation. External member Megan Greene joined Chief Economist Huw Pill—April’s sole dissenter—in voting to lift rates to 4% immediately, arguing that the price outlook remains uncertain despite the recent US-Iran ceasefire deal. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of China’s one-year loan prime rate as of June 22, Canada’s May CPI month-on-month rate, the eurozone’s June flash consumer confidence index, France’s June flash manufacturing PMI, Germany’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the eurozone’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash manufacturing PMI, the UK’s June flash services PMI, the UK’s June CBI industrial orders balance, the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 6, the US June S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI, the US June S&P Global flash services PMI, the US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Australia’s May unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, Germany’s June IFO business climate index, Switzerland’s June ZEW investor sentiment index, the US Q1 current account, US May new home sales annualized, Australia’s May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s July GfK consumer confidence index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, the US May core PCE price index year-on-year rate, the US May personal spending month-on-month rate, the final Q1 US real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the preliminary Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter rate, the final Q1 US core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter rate, the US May core PCE price index month-on-month rate, the US May durable goods orders month-on-month rate, the US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment final index, and the US June one-year inflation expectations final rate. Additionally, this week, attention should also be paid to: European Central Bank President Lagarde Christine speaks at the EU Parliament; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem Tiff delivers remarks; the 17th Summer Davos Forum takes place in Dalian from June 23 to 25; the Bank of Japan releases the summary of opinions from its June monetary policy meeting; Nvidia holds its annual general meeting of shareholders; the Bank of Canada publishes its monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Fed releases the results of its annual bank stress test; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo attends a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); 300 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos mature today; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams John speaks; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee Austan speaks; 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari Neel speaks. Crude Oil: Both crude oil futures rose in overnight trading last Friday: WTI rose 0.91%, Brent rose 0.47%. Weekly: WTI futures fell for two consecutive weeks, down 9.83% for the week; Brent fell for two straight weeks, down 8.53%. International crude oil futures opened lower on Friday, then struggled to rebound and turned lower several times during the session, hitting a low for the day after reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. As news emerged that both sides continued to attack each other after the ceasefire, prices turned higher again in late European trading. Brent struggled around the $80 level throughout the day. (Wall Street View) Iran's Foreign Ministry stated: Negotiations on a permanent deal with the US will only begin after the war in Lebanon ends permanently, the US fully lifts blockades, the US grants waivers for Iranian oil, and Iran's frozen assets are released. (Jin10 Data APP) Iran is shipping out a large volume of oil that was previously unable to be exported due to the US blockade, which could be welcome news for Tehran after it signed a temporary peace agreement with Washington on Wednesday. Shipping data compiled by Bloomberg showed that 11 tankers sailed from Iran's Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman this week, carrying a total of 20 million barrels of crude oil. Previously, the US military had blocked these tankers from entering the Indian Ocean, a move aimed at limiting Tehran's access to petrodollars. (Jin10 Data APP) In addition, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data showed that for the week ended June 16, speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 94,763 contracts to 114,128 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, due to the contract rollover, the floor trading of NYMEX New York crude oil July futures will close at 2:30 on June 23, and electronic trading will close at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risks. Moreover, the expiration of U.S. oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX date, so please stay alert.

The eurozone was facing a broad-based intensification of inflationary pressures. Specifically, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in France and Spain rose 2.8% and 3.6% YoY in May, respectively, both hitting their highest levels since 2024. Meanwhile, Italy's inflation rate climbed to 3.3%, reaching its peak since 2023, while Germany's core inflation also accelerated to 2.5%. Against this backdrop, ECB Governing Council member Simkus noted that a rate hike in June was almost a foregone conclusion, and that further rate hikes would "very likely" be needed thereafter.

Guinea's Minister of Mines and Geology announced plans to build five alumina refineries by 2030. Three projects — from Chinalco, SPIC, and SMB-Winning Consortium — are already under construction, with a combined planned capacity of 4.8 million mt. The Guinean government is currently in talks with Alcoa (CBG) for an additional alumina refinery project, as the country pushes to transition from a bauxite exporter to an alumina processor and move up the global aluminum value chain.

Recently, Guinea's Minister of Mines and Geology revealed that the country plans to build five alumina refineries before 2030. Currently, three alumina refinery projects by Chalco, SPIC, and the Winning Consortium are under construction, with a total capacity expected to reach 4.8 million mt. In addition, the Guinean government is in discussions with Alcoa (CBG) on an alumina refinery project and is making every effort to drive the country's transformation from a bauxite exporter to an alumina processing nation, in order to enhance its position in the global aluminum industry chain.