According to SMM, at the 2026 PV Supply Chain Development Forum held in Ningbo on the 22nd, expert Director Yan, in his report "Polysilicon Market Supply and Industry Development," pointed out that regarding the recently heatedly discussed polysilicon energy consumption indicators, the proportion of capacity that could previously meet the 6.4 kgce/kg standard was about 80%, while for the latest 6.3 kgce/kg standard, the proportion of enterprises that can meet it is perhaps 50%. This means that once the energy consumption standard is implemented, if no technological transformation is carried out, half of the enterprises may fail to meet the standard and face elimination. According to SMM's understanding from enterprises, a considerable number of enterprises have no intention of technological transformation based on current market conditions and their financial and technical situations.

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel is $15,259/mt Ni, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt is $49,340/mt Co. MHP payables (against SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) are 84.5-85.5, MHP cobalt payables (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) are 93. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte is $15,569/mt Ni.

Overall assessment: Driven by new capacity releases in Southeast Asia and expansion into emerging markets, China’s prebaked anode exports are expected to maintain a mild growth trajectory in H2 2026, with full-year cumulative export volume likely sustaining a double-digit YoY growth rate.

SMM, July 21: US Secretary of State Rubio stated in a media interview on the evening of the 19th that the Trump administration “remains open to a diplomatic solution.” Expectations of a negotiated settlement between the two sides in the market tug-of-war heated up, and international oil prices pulled back in tandem. Earlier inflation concerns driven by energy prices cooled, and the market’s bets on the US Fed holding high interest rates weakened marginally. Coupled with a sharp rebound in Asia-Pacific stock markets today, overall market risk appetite improved. The built-up sentiment for an oversold rebound in precious metals was released in a concentrated manner, and multiple positive factors resonated to drive a rebound in both precious metals futures and equity prices. Zhaojin Gold, Shandong Humon Smelting, Western Gold, and other precious metals enterprises reported positive H1 earnings forecasts, and the favour from some market funds also contributed to the synchronized strength in precious metals futures and stocks. As of around 13:35 on July 21, COMEX gold was up 1.07% at $4,058.7/oz; SHFE gold main contract rose 1.31% to 885.6 yuan/g; COMEX silver gained 2.13% to $58.285/oz; SHFE silver main contract advanced 3.65% to 14,186 yuan/kg; silver T+D increased 2.84% to 14,113 yuan/kg. Additionally, platinum main contract rose 1.63% to 399.3 yuan/g, and palladium main contract gained 2.87% to 302.4 yuan/g. Precious metals stocks surged. As of the close on July 21, the precious metals sector rose 7.34%. Among individual stocks: Xingye Silver&Tin, Chifeng Gold, and Shengda Resources hit the daily limit up; Xiaocheng Technology, Shanjin International, Hunan Silver, Zhongjin Gold, and Shandong Gold were among the top gainers. News [Russia’s gold holdings fell to 73.4 million ounces in June] The Russian central bank stated on its website that as of month-end June, the value of its reserves was $299 billion, compared with $325.9 billion at the end of May. [World Gold Council: Chinese market gold ETFs saw significant inflows in H1] According to the World Gold Council, gold prices weakened in June, erasing earlier gains, and H1 ended with a decline. Despite outflows in June, Chinese market gold ETFs still recorded significant inflows in H1, driving total assets under management slightly up to 243 billion yuan, with total holdings increasing by 29 mt to 277 mt. [Zhaojin Gold: expects H1 2026 net profit to increase 347.48%-436.98% YoY] Zhaojin Gold disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 14. It expects H1 2026 net profit attributable to parent at 200 million to 240 million yuan, up 347.48%-436.98% YoY; and non-recurring net profit of 80 million to 116 million yuan, up 490.44%-756.14% YoY. [Shandong Humon Smelting: Estimated H1 2026 Net Profit Up 81.06%-122.36% YoY] Shandong Humon Smelting disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, estimating H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders at 570 million – 700 million yuan, up 81.06%–122.36% YoY; adjusted net profit is estimated at 272 million – 402 million yuan, down 2.03%–33.73% YoY. [Western Gold: Estimated H1 2026 Net Profit Up 280.16%-333.39% YoY] Western Gold disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 13, estimating H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders at 500 million – 570 million yuan, up 280.16%–333.39% YoY; adjusted net profit is estimated at 490 million – 580 million yuan, up 172.96%–223.09% YoY. [Zhongjin Gold: Estimated H1 2026 Net Profit of 4.1 Billion – 4.6 Billion Yuan, Up 52.15%-70.7% YoY] Zhongjin Gold disclosed its earnings forecast on the evening of July 13, estimating H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders at 4.1 billion – 4.6 billion yuan, up 52.15%–70.7% YoY; adjusted net profit is estimated at 4.05 billion – 4.55 billion yuan, up 36.96%–53.87% YoY. Spot Market Silver On July 21, the SMM 1# silver ex-factory reference average price in the morning was 13,825 yuan/kg, with the average up 0.7% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, premium/discount quotes that day extended the trend of previous days, with consumption remaining sluggish and transactions being mostly at parity to slight discounts. The spot-futures price spread on the futures market widened slightly, and some suppliers reduced shipments. Early morning quotes in the Shanghai area were mainly concentrated at TD parity to +5 yuan/kg, with some rigid demand orders supporting transactions and suppliers’ willingness to sell weakening. In the Shenzhen area, some national-standard cargoes were concentrated around TD -5 yuan/kg to parity, with low-priced cargoes existing but having limited disruption. That day, the market’s premium/discount against the SHFE2608 contract was at a discount of 20 – 30 yuan/kg; against the most-traded SHFE contract 2610, it was at a discount of 40 – 60 yuan/kg. Overall, precious metals lacked clear guidance from news, and recently both domestic and overseas futures markets have shown signs of bulls entering, so attention can be paid to changes in open interest. Spot premiums/discounts traded near parity, and the pattern of weak supply and demand persisted. Platinum On July 21, spot platinum was quoted at 395 – 398 yuan/g, with the average price at 396.5 yuan/g, unchanged from the previous trading day. Spot market, mainstream quotations for platinum were at parity to a premium of 1 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract. The premiums/discounts of mainstream quotations were basically flat from the previous trading day. Today, the price spread between the GFEX platinum October and August futures contracts widened slightly. In the morning, suppliers' quotes for spot platinum were mainly at premiums of 0.5 to 1 yuan/g against the most-traded GFEX contract. Later, as the futures market rose, some suppliers adjusted their quotes to around parity, where transactions were made. Downstream users made small purchases based on orders. Overall, the spot platinum market saw normal trading volumes today. In July, a Section 232 window for platinum and palladium will open. If the US imposes tariffs on platinum and palladium after the 180-day negotiation period ends, it will support prices in the short term. Voices from Various Sides Regarding the future trend of precious metals, some institutions' views are as follows: Jinyuan Futures research report stated: The recent escalating US-Iran tensions have pushed oil prices higher, lifting inflation expectations. Precious metals remained under pressure but their decline slowed. After the sharp pullback in gold and silver prices, bargain-hunting buying emerged. The correction in US tech stocks will also redirect some funds into precious metals. Although the correction trend in gold and silver is not yet over, the probability of a rebound is increasing. Hundun Futures research report noted: As geopolitical tensions continue to seesaw, the market is not yet convinced enough to expect an overall pullback in oil prices. Inflation expectations could rebound from lows, limiting the decline in US bond yields. Hence, the rebound in precious metals remains limited under these circumstances. The US Fed's relatively cautious remarks have also capped the rebound in precious metals. Fed Chairman Warsh said the balance sheet should be kept as small as possible so that it can expand in a crisis. The labour market looks quite good, but he is not optimistic about inflation and is dissatisfied with it; Fed's Williams stated that with inflation still elevated, it must be brought back sustainably to the 2% target, and the current monetary policy stance is very well positioned to achieve that; Logan said that a modest rate hike now would help better balance the outlook and risks, and moderate tightening now is better than having to tighten significantly later. The Fed's stance is clearly cautious, unwilling to let the market overprice a relaxation of vigilance. The market dares not further trade interest rate cut expectations, and precious metals weakened again. Liquidity and risk appetite remain weak under the influence of the equity market. As AI fundamentals are being reassessed, deleveraging in funding further amplifies volatility. The continued decline in the equity market has made liquidity relatively tight and restricted the drivers for precious metals. At this stage, the overall market is still dominated by sentiment-driven trading. Geopolitics, the AI narrative, and economic/inflation resilience mean the US dollar index and US bond yields will remain volatile. A trend reversal in precious metals still needs to be observed. Analysts at ANZ Research said in a report that physical gold demand and central bank purchases are supporting the gold market. These analysts added that while gold faces short-term headwinds from the US Fed’s tightening expectations and a strong US dollar, investment positions in gold look thin after months of exchange-traded fund outflows, suggesting that the scope for further declines may be limited. A high interest rate environment typically weighs on non-yielding assets such as gold. (Zhitong Finance) Goldman Sachs said that despite pressure from the US Fed’s tightening-leaning expectations, central bank buying is expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains robust, with central banks purchasing 81 mt in May and a three-month average of 67 mt per month, well above the pre-2022 average of 17 mt, according to the firm’s estimates. Goldman Sachs analysts stated, “We believe the trend of central banks increasing gold holdings will persist for years as they diversify reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks.” The bank expects average monthly purchases of 50 mt and 40 mt for this year and next year, respectively. (Jinshi Data APP) Soojin Kim, analyst at MUFG, said, “Recent price action suggests that the market is placing greater weight on the possibility of US interest rates staying high for longer rather than on gold’s traditional safe-haven demand. This leaves gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a broad deterioration in financial market sentiment.” (Jinshi Data APP) Asset manager Fidelity International said it plans to rebuild its gold position, which it reduced earlier this year, at an appropriate time in the future, believing that gold’s long-term momentum remains strong. Ian Samson, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, recently said, “We plan to add back to gold, the question is just timing.” He said he reduced the gold allocation to a neutral level during the January-February period, when the multi-year bull run in gold abruptly ended. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market sometime in 2027. The logic of a return to a bull market would only be disrupted in a scenario where “governments re-embrace fiscal discipline and central banks truly commit to bringing inflation back down,” he added, “but I don’t think we are in that world right now.” Samson also said that continued gold purchases by central banks—a key driver of the previous bull market—will continue to support gold prices. Last Thursday, US Eastern Time, technical strategists at Bank of America warned that the pullback in gold so far this year may still have significant room to run, and its trajectory could resemble the devastating bear markets that followed the sharp rallies in gold in 1980 and 2011. They proposed a phased buying strategy, suggesting full allocation only when gold prices fall to the $3,450–$3,250 range. Bank of America analysts pointed out in a technical research report that gold prices have now accumulated a series of bearish signals, with the risk of a sustained drop increasing: a death cross pattern, elevated net long positions, a bearish topping candlestick, a TD Sequential exhaustion signal, and an RSI reading of 90 at the recent high—a level consistent with the gold price peaks in 1980 and 2011. UBP lowered its year-end gold price target to $4,800 per ounce and, while remaining long-term bullish on gold, is not adding to positions for now. Its current gold allocation is neutral at around 5%, down from an overweight position earlier this year. Paras Gupta, head of discretionary portfolio management for Asia at UBP, said in an interview that the previous overweight position "posed the greatest risk to our portfolios." UBP would like to see the Middle East ceasefire agreement hold and more clarity on inflation and interest rate trends before adding to its positions. Gupta said that for investors currently without gold holdings, a drop below $4,000 per ounce would be an extremely attractive entry point. (Zhitong Finance) Recommended reading:

According to combined data from the General Administration of Customs and SMM, China's total imports of lithium raw materials (spodumene + lithium sulfate) approached 80,000 tonnes in lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in June 2026, remaining at elevated levels and providing a solid feedstock base for the continued rise in domestic lithium salt production. Spodumene: Import Volumes Continue to Climb, Australian Year‑End Shipment Surge Contributes Significantly In June, China's spodumene imports reached 768,000 physical tonnes, up 13% month‑on‑month and 33% year‑on‑year, equivalent to approximately 72,000 tonnes LCE. The import scale has maintained a high growth trajectory for several consecutive months, reflecting robust end‑user demand from domestic lithium salt producers for upstream ore feed. A clear divergence in supply sources emerged: Australia remained the dominant supplier, with the year‑end fiscal push by mines fully materialising in June. Arrivals exceeded 370,000 tonnes, up 12% month‑on‑month, broadly in line with market expectations for quarter‑end shipment concentration. As the anchor of China's spodumene supply, Australia's stable shipments set the tone for the month's total imports. Mali saw arrivals rise significantly month‑on‑month to 60,000 tonnes, providing a phased incremental supply for related smelters' production needs. South Africa and Nigeria both maintained steady performance, with arrivals from each exceeding 110,000 tonnes. Notably, the share of high‑grade concentrate in Nigerian ore continued to rise, exceeding 65%, extending the trend of grade structure optimisation. Zimbabwe, affected by earlier export restrictions and cross‑border transport inefficiencies, saw arrivals fall back to 42,000 tonnes in June, a month‑on‑month decline, indicating persistent short‑term supply volatility. In terms of grade composition, SMM data show that the share of lithium concentrate in total arrivals fell to 72% month‑on‑month. The main drag came from Brazil – its 65,000 tonnes of arrivals were mostly previously booked lithium raw ore fines, the concentration of which pulled down the overall concentrate ratio. Lithium Sulfate: Imports Accelerate Month‑on‑Month, Zimbabwe Makes Its First Supply Breakthrough In addition to spodumene, lithium sulfate imports also deserve attention. In June, China's lithium sulfate imports reached 13,500 tonnes, up 12% month‑on‑month, equivalent to over 7,700 tonnes LCE. By source, Chile continued to dominate the supply landscape with 13,400 tonnes. Meanwhile, imports from Zimbabwe quietly exceeded the 100‑tonne level for the first time – although still small in absolute terms, this marks the country's first bulk shipment of lithium sulfate to China, heralding the potential for future normalised supply from Zimbabwe. Overall Assessment: June Feedstock Support Solid, but Tightening Spot Availability in July Raises Concerns In aggregate, combined spodumene and lithium sulfate imports in June reached nearly 80,000 tonnes LCE. Together with domestic lithium concentrate production of over 30,000 tonnes, total domestic lithium raw material supply exceeded 110,000 tonnes LCE for the month, providing ample and relatively stable feedstock support for the high operating rates of lithium salt production in June. However, beneath the seemingly upbeat headline figures, a key variable warrants attention: the majority of June's arriving cargoes had been pre‑locked via contracts weeks or even months in advance, leaving only a small share available for free‑trading spot circulation. The persistence of this pre‑locked structure implies that spot market availability of lithium ore will remain tight in July. If downstream rigid‑demand procurement paces hold steady, the tightening of available spot supply will constrain lithium salt producers' flexibility in raw material sourcing to some extent, thereby limiting the further upside room for lithium carbonate output in July – a transmission effect that has already been reflected in recent SMM weekly lithium carbonate production data. Source: General Administration of Customs of China, SMM

[SMM Analysis: New Battery Consumption Tax Policy Takes Effect: Sodium-Ion Batteries Exempt, Lithium Batteries Taxed, Sodium-Ion Batteries Enter a "Tax Exemption Dividend Period"] SMM, July 21: The Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Taxation Administration recently jointly issued an announcement on the adjustment of the battery consumption tax policy. For the first time, lithium-ion batteries and similar products are included in the scope of consumption tax collection, while sodium-ion batteries, solid-state batteries, fuel cells, and others are listed in the exemption catalog. This "tax-and-exempt" design has garnered widespread attention across the sodium-ion battery industry chain...

At the recently held SMM GBRC lithium battery recycling industry conference, participating enterprises across the industry chain engaged in thorough exchanges, summarizing the common issues confronting the sector's current development. Feedback from the conference indicates that China's lithium battery recycling industry remains in a phase of development and refinement, with overall standardization yet to be enhanced.

【June 2026 China Lithium Spodumene Imports: 768,000 Physical Tonnes, Equivalent to ~72,000 Tonnes LCE】 In June 2026, China's lithium spodumene imports reached 768,000 physical tonnes, up 13% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year, equivalent to approximately 72,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE).Breakdown by source country: Australia – The largest supplier saw a year-end fiscal push, with arrivals exceeding 370,000 tonnes in June, up 12% month-on-month.Mali – Arrivals increased significantly month-on-month to 60,000 tonnes. South Africa and Nigeria – Both maintained stable shipments, each delivering over 110,000 tonnes. Notably, Nigerian ore has a higher grade, with concentrate accounting for more than 65% of its total. Zimbabwe – Affected by earlier transportation efficiency issues, arrivals reached 42,000 tonnes in June, a decline from the previous month. According to SMM data screening, the total inbound ore in June corresponded to an LCE equivalent of 72,000 tonnes. It is worth noting that the share of lithium concentrate in total arrivals fell to 72% month-on-month, mainly because the majority of the 65,000 tonnes from Brazil consisted of previously booked lithium raw ore fines, which dragged down the overall concentrate ratio.

According to data from China Customs, China's phosphoric acid exports showed a notable retreat after a rapid rise in Q2 2026, with exports surging to 40,200 mt in May before pulling back to 29,500 mt in June, down 26.5% MoM but still up YoY from June last year (up 3,500 mt). Resilient overseas demand from the new energy sector continued to expand, offsetting the short-term, pace-related pullback. Based on the policy pace for the full year and industry fundamentals, China's phosphoric acid trade is now exhibiting distinct characteristics of zero imports, pure exports, strong policy-driven fluctuations, and ongoing structural upgrades . Annual exports are impacted by both the policy to ensure agricultural material supply and the seasonal cycles in and outside China, resulting in an overall pattern of consolidating in regular cycles. 1. Significant Monthly Fluctuations in China's Phosphoric Acid Exports, Driven by Intertwined Policy and Seasonal Factors According to SMM statistics, from October 2023 to June 2026, China's phosphoric acid exports displayed clear seasonal fluctuation patterns, with monthly export volumes consolidating dramatically between 15,000 mt and 48,300 mt, while imports remained near zero over the long term, indicating the strong self-sufficiency of China's phosphoric acid industry. According to the SMM database, China's phosphoric acid exports follow a complete annual pace of " a dip during Chinese New Year, a spring rebound, a summer adjustment, and an autumn surge ." Each year, during January-February, the Chinese New Year holiday weighs on enterprise operations and logistics, causing export volumes to pull back. From March to June, as the pressure to ensure supply during the spring plowing season eases and the market resumes operations in an orderly fashion, exports steadily rebound. July-August marks a period of adjustment, where exports pull back slightly into a mild range for the year, influenced by ongoing controls on phosphate fertiliser exports and weaker downstream operations during the rainy season in Southeast Asia. From September to December, the market fully enters the prime window for annual exports, with continued volume growth and repeated new annual highs. Exports hit 48,300 mt in November 2025, a peak within the statistical period. This was mainly due to concentrated overseas stockpiling ahead of Christmas and New Year holidays, the traditional peak season for external demand in November, the bottoming out and rebound of China's phosphoric acid prices from late October 2025, and a price spread advantage between Chinese and overseas markets that stimulated greater purchasing activity overseas, all driving up monthly export volumes. This cyclical fluctuation is driven by a combination of policies and supply-demand factors in and outside China. To meet domestic agricultural supply requirements during the spring plowing and autumn fertiliser peak seasons, a special control on phosphate fertiliser exports is implemented from March 14 to August 31 each year. During this period, crude agricultural-grade phosphoric acid is banned for export, with only battery-grade and high-purity food-grade phosphoric acid allowed for compliant export, naturally capping total exports for H1. After controls are lifted on August 31, export potential for H2 significantly opens up, creating a fixed policy cycle of " restricted in H1, volume release in H2 ." This also resonates effectively with the rhythm of international market demand. The agricultural fertiliser demand cycle in Southeast Asia and the soybean planting season in South America are highly aligned with the window for China's rising phosphoric acid exports. Coupled with factors such as optimized efficiency in export statutory inspections and a widening price spread between Chinese and overseas markets after May 2025, this has further supported the continued rise in H2 exports in recent years. 2. Structural Upgrades: Continuous Optimization of Export Product Mix, New Energy High-End Trend Reshapes Trade Landscape China's phosphoric acid export structure is undergoing continuous upgrades. The share of traditional crude agricultural-grade phosphoric acid exports has been declining year by year, while battery-grade purified phosphoric acid and high-end food-grade phosphoric acid have already become the mainstay of exports. The overall export landscape is gradually shifting from "low-end agricultural material exports" to "high-end new energy raw material exports." Especially during the annual export control period, high-purity phosphoric acid props up the industry's foreign trade fundamentals and serves as the core support for trade resilience. Behind this structural change is, on one hand, the continuous expansion of capacity for purified phosphoric acid and iron phosphate, steadily improving the supply capacity of high-end products. On the other hand, the gradual expansion of the overseas lithium battery and energy storage industries has driven a steady increase in rigid demand for high-end phosphoric acid. Coupled with the guidance of routine controls on agricultural material exports, industry capacity and trade resources continue to tilt towards high-value-added, high-end products, ultimately driving a comprehensive upgrade of the phosphoric acid export trade system. From the perspective of global export markets, Asia has always been the core base for China's phosphoric acid exports, with high market concentration, and top Southeast Asian countries have accounted for a major share of export volumes for many years. According to 2025 export data by destination, exports to Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Indonesia rank among the top globally. Leveraging the region's intensive agricultural cultivation, huge consumer demand from its large population, and geographical trade proximity, these countries continue to purchase large quantities of conventional agricultural- and industrial-grade phosphoric acid from China, firmly underpinning the overall export base. Exports to East Asian markets such as South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, China, are smaller in scale, mainly driven by industrial and food processing demand, with import unit prices generally at a high level. From 2023 to 2025, phosphoric acid imports from the Latin American market, represented by Brazil, increased significantly, and demand from multiple African countries expanded simultaneously. The expansion of large-scale agricultural development overseas and the establishment of local basic chemical facilities drove growth in raw material rigid demand, making these regions a highly promising emerging growth pole for China's phosphoric acid exports. From a pricing perspective, price spread segmentation by country is very pronounced: the average import prices for Singapore and South Korea are significantly higher than those for agricultural, rigid-demand markets, confirming the premium advantage of high-end product exports. Agricultural powerhouses like Thailand and Indonesia primarily purchase basic-grade products, with export unit prices at the industry's mid-level. Overall, a tiered export landscape has formed: " Southeast Asia provides volume support with massive rigid demand, Latin America and Africa offer continuous incremental growth, and Europe, the US, and East Asia deliver high premiums with high-end products ." 3. Outlook for 2026 Import/Export Trends and the Full Picture for the Phosphoric Acid Industry Based on the H1 pace and considering the current policy cycle, overseas demand rhythm, and domestic spot fundamentals, the phosphoric acid industry will still be within the phosphate fertiliser export control window in July-August H2 2026. Crude agricultural-grade phosphoric acid exports will be restricted, creating a natural ceiling on total export volumes. Supported by the release of off-season restocking demand from overseas food and energy storage enterprises, phosphoric acid exports are expected to slightly recover from the June low, return to above the central level of 30,000 mt/month, and slightly offset the pressure from domestic agricultural off-season inventory buildup, solidifying the market floor with export resilience. In the corresponding spot market, domestic demand will be weak during the traditional agricultural off-season, but high raw material costs (sulfur, phosphate ore) and sustained losses at small and medium-sized wet process plants, leading to low operating rates and widespread output controls to support prices, will keep the wet process phosphoric acid market in a stalemate and consolidation pattern, weak but with no room for a deep, trend-driven decline. From September to December, industry fundamentals and the foreign trade landscape are expected to significantly improve. The phosphate fertiliser export control policy officially expires on August 31. This, coupled with concentrated overseas agricultural material restocking in Q4, year-end capacity ramp-up at domestic LFP enterprises, and the concentrated delivery of long-term overseas lithium battery orders, will drive phosphoric acid exports into their peak period for the year. Monthly export volumes are expected to exceed 40,000 mt, hitting a new annual high, with the industry's overall export volume and trade surplus rising in tandem. This two-way volume release in domestic and external demand is expected to drive the industry into an upward inflection point. Not only will wet process phosphoric acid demand continue to recover, but thermal process phosphoric acid will also benefit from concentrated stockpiling in the food and electronic fine chemicals sectors and strengthen simultaneously, ushering in a peak season where both wet and thermal process markets thrive. Over the medium and long term, the trend towards high-end products in China's phosphoric acid exports will become the norm. The export share of high-purity purified phosphoric acid will continue to rise, becoming the core source of growth for the industry's exports. Agricultural-grade phosphoric acid will fluctuate seasonally along with the annual policy cycle, forming a stable trade landscape where " high-end rigid demand stabilizes the base, while agricultural supplies provide elasticity through cycles ," with the monthly export base firmly anchored at around 30,000 mt. The industry's fundamentals will also sustain this structural trend. On the supply side, rigid raw material costs, insufficient plant operating flexibility, and routine policy controls will keep industry supply tightening. On the demand side, steady growth in rigid export demand for high-end new energy applications and agricultural demand supporting the base will enable the phosphoric acid industry to officially enter a new development cycle of low volatility, strong resilience, and high premiums. The overall market will be more likely to rise than fall, and structural opportunities will become the market mainstream.

According to Nikkei, Sumitomo Chemical plans to start mass production of a new-type solid-state battery electrolyte material for EVs as early as fiscal year 2028, a move expected to reduce costs without sacrificing performance. The new electrolyte adopts a halide system, with chlorine and other elements as the main components, and is expected to be an alternative to sulphide and oxide electrolyte materials. The material was jointly developed by Sumitomo Chemical, Kyoto University, and Tottori University.