SMM, July 22 - According to customs data, China's aluminum extrusion exports (HS codes 76041010, 76041090, 76042100, 76042910, 76042990) in June 2026 were 92,000 mt, up 6% MoM and 29.7% YoY. Cumulative exports from January to June 2026 were 447,000 mt, up 9.0% YoY.

Canadian miner Resouro Strategic Metals is seeking funds to accelerate the development of its rare earth and titanium projects in Brazil, with the initial investment estimated at $160 million. The company plans to issue 8 million common shares through a private placement, aiming to raise C$2 million (approximately $1.4 million). The company said in a statement, "Resouro will use the proceeds for a pre-feasibility study, the urgent development of the Tiros rare earth and titanium project in Minas Gerais, and general working capital expenditures." Recently, Resouro completed a preliminary economic assessment of the Tiros project, estimating the initial construction investment at approximately $160 million. The company's projections indicate that the project is expected to process 500,000 mt of ore annually over its 20-year operational life.

Vallourec secured a contract to supply 143 km of carbon steel seamless pipes with thermal insulation coating for the Atapu 2 offshore project, covering about 19,000 tonnes of bare pipe. The products will be manufactured in Brazil and used to connect 13 wells to a floating production, storage and offloading unit.

South32 reported that its FY2026 aluminum production exceeded previous guidance by 1%, while alumina output met expectations. Brazil aluminum production increased 4.3% YoY to 144,000 tonnes as all three potlines ramped up, while Brazil alumina production rose 5.3% YoY to 1.4 million tonnes. The company also reaffirmed its US$5.6 billion agreement to sell its aluminum business to Alcoa, with the transaction expected to close in H2 2027.

On July 21, Vale formally released its Q2 2026 financial report. Benefiting from the capacity release of core projects in Brazil and Canada, the company delivered strong operational performance in Q2, with key figures as follows: Production hit a five-year high: In Q2 2026, finished nickel production reached 42,000 mt (42.0 kt), up 4% YoY, setting the best Q2 production record since 2020. Sales rose to 44,400 mt: In Q2, nickel sales reached 44,400 mt (44.4 kt), up sharply by 7.2% YoY. Sales exceeded production by 2,400 mt. Realized selling price rebounded QoQ: In Q2, the average realized nickel price was $18,061/mt, driven by higher average LME prices, up sharply by $1,046/mt from the previous quarter.

SMM July 22 news: In the metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 1.69%, SHFE aluminum added 0.56%, SHFE lead fell 0.95%, SHFE zinc rose 0.55%, SHFE tin gained 1.02%. SHFE nickel climbed 0.77%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.22%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.5%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel added 0.2%, iron ore fell 0.13%, and rebar and hot-rolled coil both rose within 0.2%. As for coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.84%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.52%. In the overnight overseas metals market, LME base metals nearly all rose. LME copper climbed 1.91%, LME aluminum added 0.81%, LME lead fell 0.48%, LME zinc rose 0.94%, LME tin jumped 1.53%, and LME nickel gained 1.12%. In overnight precious metals, : COMEX gold rose 1.65%, COMEX silver surged 3.5%. The most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract climbed 3.01%. As of 7:07 on July 22, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic market: [State Administration for Market Regulation: During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will proactively lay out high-level testing platforms for strategic emerging industries such as integrated circuits, new energy, biomedicine, and humanoid robots] The State Administration for Market Regulation held a press conference on July 21 to introduce the achievements of China’s testing and inspection service industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will implement a three-year action to promote industrial optimization and upgrading and quality improvement of national quality inspection centers through innovative pilot programs, proactively lay out high-level testing platforms for strategic emerging industries such as integrated circuits, new energy, biomedicine, and humanoid robots, and drive service model innovation through digital transformation. It will strengthen deep collaboration with industry chain leaders and research institutes, jointly overcome a number of key core technologies, promote the upgrading of testing and inspection from single services to “industry chain synergy,” and transform the role from a “post-event quality gatekeeper” to an “innovation enabler throughout the whole process.” It will coordinate the building of testing capabilities for green and low-carbon development, food safety, and high-risk industrial products, and reinforce the quality defense line for industrial development and public safety. (Jin10 Data App) [Southwest China Adds Large-Scale Hydrogen Source Base] News from CIMC Group: the integrated steel and coke clean energy project in Liupanshui, Guizhou Province, has been officially commissioned and achieved stable operation, becoming a key hydrogen supply node on the “Chongqing-Guizhou-Guangxi” hydrogen corridor. The project commissioned this time is currently the leading industrial tail-gas-to-hydrogen and resource-utilization demonstration project in south-west China. Leveraging surplus local coke oven coal gas resources from the steel industry, the project uses independently developed full-chain process technology to complete component separation, converting industrial tail gas that was originally used for combustion power generation into high-value clean energy. It can produce 24 million m³ per year of 99.999% fuel cell, battery-grade high-purity hydrogen and approximately 140,000 mt of liquefied natural gas, achieving efficient on-site resource conversion. (CCTV News) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 101.21. Rising oil prices put pressure on the rates market, and the market’s assessment of the likelihood of US Fed rate hikes in July and September both increased today. Christopher Hodge, Natixis’ Chief US Economist, believed that energy price fluctuations should drive US Fed decision-making. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged in July was 74.9%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points was 25.1%. The probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged by September was 28.9%, the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points was 55.7%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 50 basis points was 15.4%. (Jinshi Data APP) In addition, according to a Reuters poll: 78 of 104 economists (78 of 102 in last month’s poll) expected the US Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% throughout 2026. On the macro front: Today, data including the UK June CPI m/m and the UK June Retail Price Index m/m were due to be released. Crude oil: Overnight, both crude oil futures rose, with WTI up 2.5% and Brent up 2.71%. The US-Iran military conflict entered its 10th day, and the Houthi armed group announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, with traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea plunging 34% within two weeks. (Wallstreetcn) Data: US crude oil inventory increased last week. For the week ended July 17, API crude oil inventory was 2.603 million barrels (expectations: -500,000; previous: -564,000). For the week ended July 17, API gasoline inventory was -1.379 million barrels (expectations: -1.81 million; previous: -1.664 million). In addition, Iraq’s oil minister said that during the Iraqi prime minister’s visit to the US, the total value of agreements expected to be signed between Iraq’s Ministry of Oil and US enterprises would reach $200 billion. In a statement, Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said that the recent escalation of hostile actions against energy infrastructure in and around the Strait of Hormuz had heightened concerns over global energy supply security and increased uncertainty about the market outlook. The threats facing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key passage bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, have further intensified these concerns. However, he noted that the crude oil market is currently supported by several buffering factors. Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are maintaining supply through alternative shipping routes, and some crude continues to be exported via the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA estimates that crude exports from the Gulf region, while below the end-June high, remain significantly above the levels from March to mid-June. Additionally, increased exports from producers including the US, Brazil, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan have partially offset supply losses from the Gulf. China’s nearly 50% reduction in crude oil imports has also helped stabilize the market. The IEA stated that since the announcement of the release of 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves on March 11, member countries have released about 290 million barrels into the market, and the ongoing release of emergency inventories is providing support to the market. (Jinshi Data App) Due to the contract rollover, NYMEX crude oil August futures will see floor trading conclude at 2:30 a.m. on July 22, and electronic trading end at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risks. Additionally, some trading platforms' US oil contracts typically expire one day earlier than the official NYMEX expiration, so please take extra care. Recommended Reading:

According to combined data from the General Administration of Customs and SMM, China's total imports of lithium raw materials (spodumene + lithium sulfate) approached 80,000 tonnes in lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in June 2026, remaining at elevated levels and providing a solid feedstock base for the continued rise in domestic lithium salt production. Spodumene: Import Volumes Continue to Climb, Australian Year‑End Shipment Surge Contributes Significantly In June, China's spodumene imports reached 768,000 physical tonnes, up 13% month‑on‑month and 33% year‑on‑year, equivalent to approximately 72,000 tonnes LCE. The import scale has maintained a high growth trajectory for several consecutive months, reflecting robust end‑user demand from domestic lithium salt producers for upstream ore feed. A clear divergence in supply sources emerged: Australia remained the dominant supplier, with the year‑end fiscal push by mines fully materialising in June. Arrivals exceeded 370,000 tonnes, up 12% month‑on‑month, broadly in line with market expectations for quarter‑end shipment concentration. As the anchor of China's spodumene supply, Australia's stable shipments set the tone for the month's total imports. Mali saw arrivals rise significantly month‑on‑month to 60,000 tonnes, providing a phased incremental supply for related smelters' production needs. South Africa and Nigeria both maintained steady performance, with arrivals from each exceeding 110,000 tonnes. Notably, the share of high‑grade concentrate in Nigerian ore continued to rise, exceeding 65%, extending the trend of grade structure optimisation. Zimbabwe, affected by earlier export restrictions and cross‑border transport inefficiencies, saw arrivals fall back to 42,000 tonnes in June, a month‑on‑month decline, indicating persistent short‑term supply volatility. In terms of grade composition, SMM data show that the share of lithium concentrate in total arrivals fell to 72% month‑on‑month. The main drag came from Brazil – its 65,000 tonnes of arrivals were mostly previously booked lithium raw ore fines, the concentration of which pulled down the overall concentrate ratio. Lithium Sulfate: Imports Accelerate Month‑on‑Month, Zimbabwe Makes Its First Supply Breakthrough In addition to spodumene, lithium sulfate imports also deserve attention. In June, China's lithium sulfate imports reached 13,500 tonnes, up 12% month‑on‑month, equivalent to over 7,700 tonnes LCE. By source, Chile continued to dominate the supply landscape with 13,400 tonnes. Meanwhile, imports from Zimbabwe quietly exceeded the 100‑tonne level for the first time – although still small in absolute terms, this marks the country's first bulk shipment of lithium sulfate to China, heralding the potential for future normalised supply from Zimbabwe. Overall Assessment: June Feedstock Support Solid, but Tightening Spot Availability in July Raises Concerns In aggregate, combined spodumene and lithium sulfate imports in June reached nearly 80,000 tonnes LCE. Together with domestic lithium concentrate production of over 30,000 tonnes, total domestic lithium raw material supply exceeded 110,000 tonnes LCE for the month, providing ample and relatively stable feedstock support for the high operating rates of lithium salt production in June. However, beneath the seemingly upbeat headline figures, a key variable warrants attention: the majority of June's arriving cargoes had been pre‑locked via contracts weeks or even months in advance, leaving only a small share available for free‑trading spot circulation. The persistence of this pre‑locked structure implies that spot market availability of lithium ore will remain tight in July. If downstream rigid‑demand procurement paces hold steady, the tightening of available spot supply will constrain lithium salt producers' flexibility in raw material sourcing to some extent, thereby limiting the further upside room for lithium carbonate output in July – a transmission effect that has already been reflected in recent SMM weekly lithium carbonate production data. Source: General Administration of Customs of China, SMM

Alumina Transaction: On July 20, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded at a transaction price of $390.25/mt FOB Brazil, for September shipment.

【June 2026 China Lithium Spodumene Imports: 768,000 Physical Tonnes, Equivalent to ~72,000 Tonnes LCE】 In June 2026, China's lithium spodumene imports reached 768,000 physical tonnes, up 13% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year, equivalent to approximately 72,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE).Breakdown by source country: Australia – The largest supplier saw a year-end fiscal push, with arrivals exceeding 370,000 tonnes in June, up 12% month-on-month.Mali – Arrivals increased significantly month-on-month to 60,000 tonnes. South Africa and Nigeria – Both maintained stable shipments, each delivering over 110,000 tonnes. Notably, Nigerian ore has a higher grade, with concentrate accounting for more than 65% of its total. Zimbabwe – Affected by earlier transportation efficiency issues, arrivals reached 42,000 tonnes in June, a decline from the previous month. According to SMM data screening, the total inbound ore in June corresponded to an LCE equivalent of 72,000 tonnes. It is worth noting that the share of lithium concentrate in total arrivals fell to 72% month-on-month, mainly because the majority of the 65,000 tonnes from Brazil consisted of previously booked lithium raw ore fines, which dragged down the overall concentrate ratio.

According to data from China Customs, China's phosphoric acid exports showed a notable retreat after a rapid rise in Q2 2026, with exports surging to 40,200 mt in May before pulling back to 29,500 mt in June, down 26.5% MoM but still up YoY from June last year (up 3,500 mt). Resilient overseas demand from the new energy sector continued to expand, offsetting the short-term, pace-related pullback. Based on the policy pace for the full year and industry fundamentals, China's phosphoric acid trade is now exhibiting distinct characteristics of zero imports, pure exports, strong policy-driven fluctuations, and ongoing structural upgrades . Annual exports are impacted by both the policy to ensure agricultural material supply and the seasonal cycles in and outside China, resulting in an overall pattern of consolidating in regular cycles. 1. Significant Monthly Fluctuations in China's Phosphoric Acid Exports, Driven by Intertwined Policy and Seasonal Factors According to SMM statistics, from October 2023 to June 2026, China's phosphoric acid exports displayed clear seasonal fluctuation patterns, with monthly export volumes consolidating dramatically between 15,000 mt and 48,300 mt, while imports remained near zero over the long term, indicating the strong self-sufficiency of China's phosphoric acid industry. According to the SMM database, China's phosphoric acid exports follow a complete annual pace of " a dip during Chinese New Year, a spring rebound, a summer adjustment, and an autumn surge ." Each year, during January-February, the Chinese New Year holiday weighs on enterprise operations and logistics, causing export volumes to pull back. From March to June, as the pressure to ensure supply during the spring plowing season eases and the market resumes operations in an orderly fashion, exports steadily rebound. July-August marks a period of adjustment, where exports pull back slightly into a mild range for the year, influenced by ongoing controls on phosphate fertiliser exports and weaker downstream operations during the rainy season in Southeast Asia. From September to December, the market fully enters the prime window for annual exports, with continued volume growth and repeated new annual highs. Exports hit 48,300 mt in November 2025, a peak within the statistical period. This was mainly due to concentrated overseas stockpiling ahead of Christmas and New Year holidays, the traditional peak season for external demand in November, the bottoming out and rebound of China's phosphoric acid prices from late October 2025, and a price spread advantage between Chinese and overseas markets that stimulated greater purchasing activity overseas, all driving up monthly export volumes. This cyclical fluctuation is driven by a combination of policies and supply-demand factors in and outside China. To meet domestic agricultural supply requirements during the spring plowing and autumn fertiliser peak seasons, a special control on phosphate fertiliser exports is implemented from March 14 to August 31 each year. During this period, crude agricultural-grade phosphoric acid is banned for export, with only battery-grade and high-purity food-grade phosphoric acid allowed for compliant export, naturally capping total exports for H1. After controls are lifted on August 31, export potential for H2 significantly opens up, creating a fixed policy cycle of " restricted in H1, volume release in H2 ." This also resonates effectively with the rhythm of international market demand. The agricultural fertiliser demand cycle in Southeast Asia and the soybean planting season in South America are highly aligned with the window for China's rising phosphoric acid exports. Coupled with factors such as optimized efficiency in export statutory inspections and a widening price spread between Chinese and overseas markets after May 2025, this has further supported the continued rise in H2 exports in recent years. 2. Structural Upgrades: Continuous Optimization of Export Product Mix, New Energy High-End Trend Reshapes Trade Landscape China's phosphoric acid export structure is undergoing continuous upgrades. The share of traditional crude agricultural-grade phosphoric acid exports has been declining year by year, while battery-grade purified phosphoric acid and high-end food-grade phosphoric acid have already become the mainstay of exports. The overall export landscape is gradually shifting from "low-end agricultural material exports" to "high-end new energy raw material exports." Especially during the annual export control period, high-purity phosphoric acid props up the industry's foreign trade fundamentals and serves as the core support for trade resilience. Behind this structural change is, on one hand, the continuous expansion of capacity for purified phosphoric acid and iron phosphate, steadily improving the supply capacity of high-end products. On the other hand, the gradual expansion of the overseas lithium battery and energy storage industries has driven a steady increase in rigid demand for high-end phosphoric acid. Coupled with the guidance of routine controls on agricultural material exports, industry capacity and trade resources continue to tilt towards high-value-added, high-end products, ultimately driving a comprehensive upgrade of the phosphoric acid export trade system. From the perspective of global export markets, Asia has always been the core base for China's phosphoric acid exports, with high market concentration, and top Southeast Asian countries have accounted for a major share of export volumes for many years. According to 2025 export data by destination, exports to Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Indonesia rank among the top globally. Leveraging the region's intensive agricultural cultivation, huge consumer demand from its large population, and geographical trade proximity, these countries continue to purchase large quantities of conventional agricultural- and industrial-grade phosphoric acid from China, firmly underpinning the overall export base. Exports to East Asian markets such as South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, China, are smaller in scale, mainly driven by industrial and food processing demand, with import unit prices generally at a high level. From 2023 to 2025, phosphoric acid imports from the Latin American market, represented by Brazil, increased significantly, and demand from multiple African countries expanded simultaneously. The expansion of large-scale agricultural development overseas and the establishment of local basic chemical facilities drove growth in raw material rigid demand, making these regions a highly promising emerging growth pole for China's phosphoric acid exports. From a pricing perspective, price spread segmentation by country is very pronounced: the average import prices for Singapore and South Korea are significantly higher than those for agricultural, rigid-demand markets, confirming the premium advantage of high-end product exports. Agricultural powerhouses like Thailand and Indonesia primarily purchase basic-grade products, with export unit prices at the industry's mid-level. Overall, a tiered export landscape has formed: " Southeast Asia provides volume support with massive rigid demand, Latin America and Africa offer continuous incremental growth, and Europe, the US, and East Asia deliver high premiums with high-end products ." 3. Outlook for 2026 Import/Export Trends and the Full Picture for the Phosphoric Acid Industry Based on the H1 pace and considering the current policy cycle, overseas demand rhythm, and domestic spot fundamentals, the phosphoric acid industry will still be within the phosphate fertiliser export control window in July-August H2 2026. Crude agricultural-grade phosphoric acid exports will be restricted, creating a natural ceiling on total export volumes. Supported by the release of off-season restocking demand from overseas food and energy storage enterprises, phosphoric acid exports are expected to slightly recover from the June low, return to above the central level of 30,000 mt/month, and slightly offset the pressure from domestic agricultural off-season inventory buildup, solidifying the market floor with export resilience. In the corresponding spot market, domestic demand will be weak during the traditional agricultural off-season, but high raw material costs (sulfur, phosphate ore) and sustained losses at small and medium-sized wet process plants, leading to low operating rates and widespread output controls to support prices, will keep the wet process phosphoric acid market in a stalemate and consolidation pattern, weak but with no room for a deep, trend-driven decline. From September to December, industry fundamentals and the foreign trade landscape are expected to significantly improve. The phosphate fertiliser export control policy officially expires on August 31. This, coupled with concentrated overseas agricultural material restocking in Q4, year-end capacity ramp-up at domestic LFP enterprises, and the concentrated delivery of long-term overseas lithium battery orders, will drive phosphoric acid exports into their peak period for the year. Monthly export volumes are expected to exceed 40,000 mt, hitting a new annual high, with the industry's overall export volume and trade surplus rising in tandem. This two-way volume release in domestic and external demand is expected to drive the industry into an upward inflection point. Not only will wet process phosphoric acid demand continue to recover, but thermal process phosphoric acid will also benefit from concentrated stockpiling in the food and electronic fine chemicals sectors and strengthen simultaneously, ushering in a peak season where both wet and thermal process markets thrive. Over the medium and long term, the trend towards high-end products in China's phosphoric acid exports will become the norm. The export share of high-purity purified phosphoric acid will continue to rise, becoming the core source of growth for the industry's exports. Agricultural-grade phosphoric acid will fluctuate seasonally along with the annual policy cycle, forming a stable trade landscape where " high-end rigid demand stabilizes the base, while agricultural supplies provide elasticity through cycles ," with the monthly export base firmly anchored at around 30,000 mt. The industry's fundamentals will also sustain this structural trend. On the supply side, rigid raw material costs, insufficient plant operating flexibility, and routine policy controls will keep industry supply tightening. On the demand side, steady growth in rigid export demand for high-end new energy applications and agricultural demand supporting the base will enable the phosphoric acid industry to officially enter a new development cycle of low volatility, strong resilience, and high premiums. The overall market will be more likely to rise than fall, and structural opportunities will become the market mainstream.