[Plate/HRC] Today HRC and other flat-product export prices were flat day on day, with HRC deal prices at 486-491 USD/tonne. Overseas markets still saw no clearpick-up in volume and remained largely wait-and-see; some domestic traders selling short were able to secure a certain amount of volume. [Billet] Today export billet FOB prices were steady, with Jiangyin quoted at 457-459 USD/tonne. It is understood that the current international situation is unstableand a partial strait blockade in the Middle East has weighed somewhat on steel exports, with most Middle-East buyers taking a wait-and-see stance pendinggreater clarity. Meanwhile domestic billet export offers held no clear competitive edge, making deals hard to close. [Rebar] Today Tianjin rebar export prices were steady, with deals at 479-484 USD/tonne. Market participants reported ordinary inquiries; some South-China millsquoted rebar exports on the high side at 510 USD/tonne FOB, but the high offers struggled to clear.

[SMM Analysis] China-Indonesia Steel Price Spread Inverted, Overseas Demand Still Shows No Improvement China-Indonesia Price Spread Inversion From the price spread model, the most notable fluctuations are in the China-Indonesia spread. The slab spread has narrowed to zero, billet has even inverted, and HRC prices are also declining markedly. Specifically, according to SMM survey, Indonesian prices weakened sharply. On one hand, clients hold high inventory and are eager to sell at lower prices. On the other hand, due to quota impacts, exports to the EU are hindered, forcing them to cut prices to compete with Asian resources. Data source: SMM Japanese Steel Scrap Under Pressure and Drifting Lower After the Kanto tender weakened, several Japanese mills including Tokyo Steel successively lowered their scrap purchase prices. Last week, the domestic scrap price index lost stability. Although a downward adjustment occurred at end-July, the downtrend is expected to persist. For finished steel, July EXW prices announced by most major mills last week were largely flat. However, on the export front, after the EU implemented new quota policies, challenges for Japan’s steel exports have intensified. Despite strong reactions from Japan, the short-term trade difficulties are hard to reverse, which is expected to force Japanese mills to further adjust production, continuing production cuts. India HRC Shipments to Southeast Asia to Increase Due to Quotas Last week, Indian steel remained under pressure. Mumbai HRC prices fell about $3/mt WoW to $602/mt EXW, with market transaction prices around $571-611/mt. Monsoon weather dampened construction and infrastructure demand. Spot procurement and restocking willingness remained weak, intensifying competition for low-priced resources. On the export side, affected by EU policies and quota adjustments, Indian steel exports to Europe are facing difficulties, prompting mills to adjust their overseas sales strategies. Flows of resources such as HRC to Southeast Asian markets like Vietnam are expected to increase significantly. Given that fundamentals are unlikely to improve before end-July, India’s domestic steel prices are expected to continue their downward drift through end-July. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

A downturn industry affects Liberty Steel workers at its Bartonville, Ill., facility face furloughs, but the company spokeperson say that this is temporary. Some of the workers were furloughed starting 20 July 2026 and this will impact the steel production as this mill is producing things like billets, wire rod, industrial wire, and fencing products.

In today's [SMM Analysis] India's Vraj Iron & Steel Ltd has approved the first phase of a 450 crore rupees ($52 million) greenfield integrated steel project in the eastern state of Chhattisgarh, adding 201,000 tonnes per year (tpy) each of sponge iron and mild steel billets. The company expects the first phase to be commissioned within 30 months of the groundbreaking ceremony.

[Full-Scale US-Iran War Risks Climb, Strengthening Short-Term Upward Drivers for Aluminum Prices] Overall assessment suggests that with the volatile Middle East situation, persistent market concerns over interest rate hikes, and continuously recovering supply, the destocking trend will be hard to reverse in the short term. Amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate and adjust in the near term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions in the Middle East, the trajectory of geopolitical conflicts, LME aluminum ingot inventory changes, and the status of China’s downstream processing orders.

[India] Raipur’s billet index stood at 396 USD/tonne EXW. Rainfall and weak finished steel demand limited enquiries and transactions, prompting sellers to adjust offers to attract bookings. Rebar and sponge iron prices remained stable, while the wire rod market stayed soft. The sponge iron-to-billet conversion spread was around 147 USD/tonne, with sentiment remaining cautious.

[Indonesia] Indonesian SAE1008 wire rod offers held at 485 USD/tonne FOB, while September-shipment 3sp billet remained at 465 USD/tonne FOB. Weak regional long steel demand and continued buyer resistance kept transactions limited, with export prices likely to remain range-bound in the near term."

[SMM Aluminum Express News] The Aluminium Extrusion Manufacturers Association of India (ALEMAI) has urged the government to introduce urgent policy reforms to strengthen the domestic aluminum extrusion industry amid rising import pressure and global tariff uncertainties. The association called for rationalizing tariffs on raw materials, reviewing FTA-driven duty-free imports of value-added aluminum products, lowering energy and financing costs, and increasing domestic aluminum billet availability to improve industry competitiveness. ALEMAI said India's aluminum extrusion industry has an installed capacity of around 3 million tonnes per year but is operating at only about 1.2 million tonnes, while imports exceed 1.5 million tonnes annually. The association expects demand to grow with infrastructure, automotive and renewable energy development, but warned that policy support is needed to improve capacity utilization and protect domestic manufacturers.

[Mideast Situation Remains Volatile and Uncertain, Aluminum Prices Consolidate and Adjust] Overall, the Middle East situation remains volatile, market concerns over interest rate hikes persist, and supply continues to recover. However, the destocking pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term. Amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate and adjust in the near term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions and the trend of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, changes in LME aluminum ingot inventories, and the condition of downstream processing orders in China.

[SMM Analysis] Steel Billet Sees Notable YoY Growth, UAE's Decline Hits a New Low By product: Steel billet continued to achieve high growth, while HRC remained the product with the largest decline. In January-May 2026, China's cumulative steel billet exports reached 6.76 million mt (compared with 4.72 million mt in the same period last year), a substantial increase of 2.04 million mt, with growth momentum still strong. This was mainly due to periodic supply-demand mismatch in overseas supply chains and the subsequent impact of global buyers' active inquiries to China, especially the marginal support from purchasing sentiment in markets like Southeast Asia. In contrast, HRC exports plummeted from 10.51 million mt in the same period last year to 7.21 million mt, a decrease of 3.3 million mt, closely related to the implementation of anti-dumping policies on HRC outside China and the high base effect. Data Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs By country: Singapore replaced Djibouti as the top contributor to growth. Its product breakdown pie chart clearly shows that bars (61%) and wire rod (12%) formed the dominant products, together accounting for 73%. As a global shipping and trade settlement hub, Singapore's significant growth was mainly due to concentrated procurement and trade settlement by ASEAN and China-invested construction projects there, providing strong support for China's exports of bars, wire rod, and related infrastructure supporting products. On the decline list, the UAE (down 1.18 million mt), Brazil (down 850,000 mt), Vietnam (down 780,000 mt), and Saudi Arabia (down 570,000 mt) were the main losers, mainly affected by geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and the direct impact of trade barrier policies in some regions. Data Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Outlook According to SMM's latest data on steel export orders, the US-Iran conflict remains volatile in the short term, and amid uncertainty, Middle Eastern buyers will be relatively cautious in procurement. China's export price advantage over other markets continues to narrow, and the overall export order volume is unlikely to improve significantly. However, considering the noticeable decline in sheets & plates transactions last week, some recovery is expected in the short term. Data Source: SMM Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.