[SMM Aluminum Express News] The Federal Government of Nigeria and the African Finance Corporation (AFC) have signed a landmark Memorandum of Understanding to co-fund three strategic mining projects. The flagship initiative is a USD 1.3 billion alumina refinery designed to process approximately 1 million tons of bauxite per year using a modern Bayer-process flowsheet. It will feature an on-site gas-fired cogeneration plant to produce steam and electricity for efficient operations. The refinery is projected to run for about 20 years at 95% utilization, yielding a cumulative total of around 19 million tons of alumina over its lifespan.

[South32 Secures ARENA Support for Clean Energy Transition in Alumina Refining] South32 has been awarded $4.4 million in funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) to explore clean energy alternatives for steam production at its Worsley Alumina Refinery in Western Australia. As part of an $8.72 million prefeasibility project, the study will investigate electric boilers and mechanical vapour recompression (MVR) as potential solutions to reduce the refinery’s reliance on fossil fuels. Alumina refining, which heavily depends on steam for the Bayer Process, is one of Australia’s most emission-intensive industrial activities. Steam production alone is responsible for around 70% of the sector’s greenhouse gas emissions. By shifting to electricity sourced from renewables, South32 hopes to significantly cut emissions at Worsley, supporting its broader targets of a 50% reduction by 2035 and net-zero emissions by 2050. This initiative is backed by ARENA’s $400 million Industrial Transformation Stream, which is helping heavy industries adopt cleaner technologies. Similar efforts are underway at Alcoa and Rio Tinto facilities, reflecting a sector-wide move toward decarbonisation.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment on May 8 Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded al2509 futures contract opened at 2,707 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,707 yuan/mt, a low of 2,686 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,700 yuan/mt, down 7 yuan/mt or 0.24%, with open interest at 299,000 lots. Ore: As of May 7, the SMM Import Bauxite Index stood at $78.24/mt, down $0.32/mt from the previous trading day, mainly due to some lower quotes in the market. Meanwhile, the buyer's target price was below $75/mt, with some enterprises reporting target prices below $70/mt. The SMM Guinea Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $77/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia Low-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was at $80/mt, also unchanged, while the SMM Australia High-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was at $72/mt, unchanged as well. Industry News: According to a PTI report on May 6, 2025, several experts attending the launch of a mining white paper organized by the social welfare organization AIDENT in Bhubaneswar, Odisha, pointed out that Odisha should seize the critical "now or never" moment to systematically develop its abundant mineral resources to achieve inclusive prosperity. The white paper noted that Odisha holds 35% of India's iron ore reserves, 59% of its bauxite reserves, and abundant coal resources, but the current level of development of these resources is far from adequate, with issues such as institutional barriers, resource outflows, and missed historical opportunities. The report proposed a phased reform path: advancing regulatory reforms in the short term, building mineral corridors and manufacturing clusters in the medium term, and creating industrial hubs for green aluminum, steel, and critical minerals in the long term. Experts noted that fully unlocking the potential of bauxite could drive the development of over 10,000 small and medium-sized enterprises, create 2.4 million jobs, and attract billions of dollars in investment. According to a South China Morning Post report on May 7, an alumina refinery in Shanxi Province is introducing technology developed by France's IB2 company to enable the utilization of locally produced high-silicon, low-grade bauxite in China. The traditional Bayer process struggles to efficiently process bauxite with high silica content, but IB2 has developed a process to neutralize silicon and sulfur through a decade of R&D, allowing such ores to be refined into alumina using the Bayer process. In 2023, IB2 signed a 22-year cooperation agreement with China's Liulin Senze Coal & Aluminum Company to advance the implementation of this technology. The first set of industrial-scale equipment at the refinery is expected to commence production in July 2025. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on May 7, the SMM Alumina Index had a premium of 202 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 a.m. Warrant Daily Report: On May 7, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 323 mt from the previous trading day to 259,700 mt. In Shandong, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 601 mt. In Henan, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 1,200 mt from the previous trading day to 3,001 mt. In Guangxi, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 2,701 mt from the previous trading day to 27,900 mt. In Gansu, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 1,198 mt from the previous trading day to 16,800 mt. In Xinjiang, the total registered alumina warrants increased by 4,776 mt from the previous trading day to 211,400 mt. Overseas Market: As of May 7, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $348/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $20.50/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price hovered around 7.24. This price translates to approximately 3,097 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, which is 201 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price. The alumina import window remained closed. Summary: With the commissioning of new capacity and the resumption of production from maintenance, the operating capacity of alumina has rebounded significantly. In the final week before the holiday, the weekly operating capacity increased by 3.48 million mt/year on a WoW basis. In the short term, some alumina refineries have plans for maintenance and production cuts, but at the same time, new alumina capacity will further ramp up production, and the operating capacity of alumina may exhibit slight fluctuations. On the cost side, caustic soda prices have remained largely stable overall, while bauxite prices have decreased, leading to a pullback in alumina costs and alleviating the loss pressure on alumina refineries. Overall, the tightening of spot alumina supplies caused by the concentration of maintenance and production cuts in the early stage is expected to ease, and short-term prices are expected to fluctuate. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make cautious decisions and should not rely on this information to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]

[French Technology Could Reduce China’s Reliance on Imported Bauxite] A plant in Shanxi, China, is being upgraded with French technology that will allow it to process the country’s low-grade, high-silica bauxite into alumina using the Bayer process, which was previously inefficient for such ore types. The first industrial-scale IB2 unit is expected to be operational by July 2025. The technology, developed by French green tech firm IB2, neutralises silica and sulphur in the bauxite, enabling effective refining with the conventional Bayer method. This innovation follows a decade of research by chemist Yves Ocello. In 2023, IB2 signed a 22-year agreement with China’s Liulin Senze Coal & Aluminum to implement the process. The move supports Beijing’s push for a greener aluminium industry and could significantly reduce reliance on bauxite imports from Guinea and Australia.

Introduction to Metro Mining and Current Status of Alumina Capacity Expansion in Indonesia Metro Mining Metro Mining, an Australian company, focuses on bauxite development and exports. Its core asset is the Bauxite Hills mine in Queensland, Australia, with a resource reserve of approximately 150 million mt and an annual capacity of around 4 million mt of bauxite. Its major clients are alumina refineries in China, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, with the Chinese market accounting for over 70% of its sales. The company employs open-pit mining and benefits from proximity to ports (simplifying logistics), with cash costs ranking among the lowest in the global bauxite industry. The bauxite has an average alumina content of about 50%, with low impurities (low silicon content), making it suitable for China's high-temperature Bayer process. The company uses reclamation techniques to restore mine ecology and has committed to achieving carbon neutrality in mining operations by 2030. In recent years, it has expanded its resource reserves through acquisitions and exploration while exploring cooperation opportunities in emerging bauxite regions such as Guinea and Indonesia. Current Status of Alumina Capacity Expansion in Indonesia Since 2020, Indonesia has banned the export of raw bauxite ore, mandating local value-added processing (promoting the construction of alumina refineries). The country plans to build over 10 alumina refineries by 2025, with annual capacity exceeding 20 million mt. Indonesia has abundant bauxite reserves (approximately 1.2 billion mt), but the grade is relatively low (alumina content of 40%-45%), necessitating reliance on imported high-grade ore (such as Metro's Australian ore) for blending to improve efficiency. Operational Projects: Projects led by Chinese companies such as Hua Chin Aluminum (part of China Hongqiao Group) and Huafon Group in Indonesia. In 2023, Indonesia's alumina capacity was about 5 million mt, accounting for 5% of the global total. Projects Under Construction/Planning: Investments by international companies such as Rusal and EGA are expected to make Indonesia the world's third-largest alumina producer by 2025 (after China and Australia). Potential Impact of Indonesia's New Capacity on China 1. Changes in Market Competition Landscape • Import Substitution Effect China currently imports about 3 million mt of alumina annually (mainly from Australia). The release of Indonesia's capacity may divert some demand, reducing China's reliance on Australian ore. • Price Pressure Indonesia's low-cost alumina (benefiting from cheap energy and labor) may impact domestic alumina prices in China, squeezing profit margins for high-cost domestic producers. 2. Industry Chain Adjustments • Strategies for Chinese Alumina Companies Accelerate capacity relocation to Indonesia (e.g., Nanshan Aluminum and Chalco's projects in Indonesia) to avoid raw material import tariffs and stay close to resources. Enhance domestic refinery technologies (e.g., low-carbon electrolysis, waste heat recovery) to reduce costs. • Changes in Bauxite Trade Flows Increased local processing demand in Indonesia may reduce its bauxite exports, forcing China to diversify its import sources (Guinea, Australia, Vietnam, etc.). 3. Long-Term Challenges and Opportunities • Challenges Risks related to Indonesia's policy stability (e.g., adjustments to export bans, tax fluctuations) and infrastructure bottlenecks (insufficient port and power supply). • Opportunities China-Indonesia capacity cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative may foster regional aluminum industry clusters (integrated mining-alumina-aluminum-processing). 4. Response Strategies Sign long-term offtake agreements with major Chinese aluminum companies (e.g., Chalco, Weiqiao) to secure demand; explore equity stakes in Chinese alumina refineries to bind downstream. Provide high-grade Australian bauxite to Indonesian refineries (compensating for local low-grade ore), with supply agreements already in place with multiple Indonesian smelters. Promote "customized blending solutions" to help customers optimize alumina extraction rates; invest in digital logistics systems to improve China-Indonesia shipping efficiency. More in-depth analysis will be unveiled at the Alumina & Aluminum Raw Materials Forum on April 16, 2025! Norman graduated from the Department of Mineral Processing at Imperial College London and holds an EMBA from CEIBS in China. Before joining Metro Mining, Norman served as Sales Manager at Rio Tinto Aluminum, President of Asia Pacific at British Hardware, and President of Asia Pacific at U.S. Unisys. Currently, Norman is the General Manager of Metro Mining's Asia Market Department. AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Conference & Expo As a platform focusing on the integration of aluminum mining, smelting, metal processing, and end-use consumption, the event will kick off at the Suzhou International Expo Center from April 16-18, 2025. Alumina & Aluminum Raw Materials Forum As one of the most important forums of AICE 2025, the event on April 16, 2025, will center on topics such as overseas bauxite layout, the global alumina market, energy conservation and carbon reduction in the aluminum industry, Chinese aluminum companies going global, fluid delivery systems, green transformation in the aluminum industry, aluminum price fluctuations, prebaked anode supply structure, graphitized cathode technology, carbon footprint in the aluminum industry, and domestic petroleum coke and calcined coke markets, bringing an unparalleled event to the aluminum industry in the spring of the year.

Around mid-week, the Geological Survey of India (GSI) revealed their recent finding of the moderate-quality bauxite resources in the Rymrai area of West Khasi Hills. Alongside the resources, GSI also conveyed their findings, including substantial reserves near a village in East Khasi Hills.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment: Last week, the weekly operating rate of alumina was lowered again, and the national total operating capacity of metallurgical alumina decreased to 87.3 million mt/year, with the weekly operating capacity down 700,000 mt/year MoM. However, the fundamental supply surplus of alumina has not yet reversed. According to SMM data, as of last Thursday, the total operating capacity of domestic aluminum was 43.88 million mt/year, translating to an alumina demand operating capacity of approximately 84.47 million mt/year. Theoretical demand increased slightly again but remained below actual operations. Supply side, domestic bauxite supply remained low with limited increments, while the increase in imported bauxite supply drove the total domestic bauxite supply higher. The fundamental supply and demand of bauxite may become more relaxed compared to the previous period, and bauxite prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short term. Meanwhile, downstream aluminum plants reported that alumina procurement is mainly executed through long-term contracts, and some plants that have conducted winter stockpiling plan to actively reduce inventory. According to SMM statistics, alumina raw material inventory at aluminum plants decreased by 44,000 mt WoW last week. In the short term, the circulating supply of alumina is expected to remain relatively loose, and alumina prices may continue to operate under pressure. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in alumina operating capacity.

On March 26, the construction and installation project of the finished products of the Guangxi Fangchenggang Port Ecological Aluminum Industry Chain Project, undertaken by the First Company of Minmetals Twenty-Three Metallurgical Construction, officially commenced. The Guangxi Fangchenggang Port Ecological Aluminum Industry Chain Project is located within the Qisha Group of the Guangxi Fangchenggang Economic and Technological Development Zone. It plans to construct two production lines with an annual output of 1.2 million mt of alumina, along with a comprehensive utilization system for red mud, adopting the Bayer process with low temperature and low alkali concentration. The First Company is primarily responsible for the construction and installation of the eighth section (finished product process) of the project, which includes alumina storage, aluminum hydroxide storage and transportation, roasting circulating water, and waste heat energy stations. The total project duration is eight months. As a key project of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, upon completion, it will form a complete industry chain of "imported ore - alumina - aluminum-based new materials," which is of significant strategic importance for optimizing China's aluminum industry layout and enhancing the level of comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste.

[SMM Morning Comment on Alumina: Spot and Futures Prices Shift Downward Amid Alumina Surplus] Recently, the tug-of-war between alumina buyers and sellers continues, with sporadic spot alumina transactions observed in the spot market. Transaction prices have seen a further slight decline, centering around 3,200-3,300 yuan/mt. The domestic alumina export window has closed, and the total registered warrant volume in alumina futures delivery warehouses has exceeded 280,000 mt. Subsequent alumina exports and transfers to delivery warehouses are unlikely to provide sustained demand. On the fundamentals side, in the short term, alumina operating capacity is expected to fluctuate with both increases and decreases, and no significant decline in total operating capacity is anticipated. The alumina market fundamentals remain in a slight surplus, with spot alumina prices likely to fluctuate downward in the short term.

The "Green Technology and Engineering Demonstration of Efficient Production of New Powder Materials by Bayer Process Red Mud" project by Chinalco Shandong Co., Ltd. has achieved a significant milestone.