SMM June 27 news: Metal market: Overnight, domestic base metals almost all rose. SHFE zinc rose 2.16%, SHFE copper rose 0.9%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.81%, and SHFE tin rose 1.66%. SHFE nickel rose 0.36%. SHFE lead fell 0.37%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.64%, and the most-traded cast aluminum continuous contract rose 1.66%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel rose 0.48%, iron ore rose 0.54%, and rebar fell 0.1%. HRC was flat at 3,312 yuan/mt. Coking coal and coke side: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.13%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.21%. Overnight, in the overseas metal market, LME base metals generally rose. LME copper edged up. LME aluminum rose 0.39%, LME lead fell 0.58%. LME zinc rose 1.8%. LME tin rose 1.69%. LME nickel fell 0.36%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 1.37%, but posted a four-week losing streak on the weekly chart, down 3.37% for the week; COMEX silver rose 1.37%, but has fallen for seven consecutive weeks, down 10.79% for the week. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold continuous contract rose 1.34%, with SHFE gold posting a weekly decline, down 6.33% for the week; the most-traded SHFE silver continuous contract rose 2.61%, with SHFE silver posting a weekly decline, down 15.23% for the week. Macquarie strategists noted that all eyes are currently on the path of inflation and whether central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, will tighten policies to control prices. The apparent end of the Middle East conflict, coupled with a more hawkish US Fed stance, led to a pullback in gold prices. The first meeting of new US Fed Chair Walsh had a 'hawkish' tone, and under his leadership, the central bank has the ability to 'drive or suppress' gold market prices. The shock from the Middle East situation is expected to drag on global growth in Q3, after which the eventual recovery in global growth and the start of a monetary easing cycle should drive gold prices lower, as more investor funds shift from precious metals to other assets. Investors have been taking profits and shifting to equities, creating space for them to re-enter the precious metals sector and drive a price rebound, though this may require a major macro event to reignite investor interest in gold. The forecast is for spot gold to average $4,641 in 2026, up 35% YoY, but to decline 9.5% to $4,200 in 2027, and then fall year by year through 2030. The bank lowered its year-end spot gold forecast from $4,400 to $4,300. (Jinshi Data APP) As of 7:46 on June 27, the closing prices for the overnight session: Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Profits of China's industrial enterprises above designated size grew 18.8% in January-May, with the electronics industry providing significant support] Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in January-May, the total profits of China's industrial enterprises above designated size reached 3,143.96 billion yuan, up 18.8% YoY. From January to May, among industrial enterprises above designated size, state-controlled enterprises realized total profits of 1,048.66 billion yuan, up 19.6% YoY; joint-stock enterprises realized total profits of 2,434.81 billion yuan, up 24.1% YoY; foreign-invested enterprises and those funded by Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan investors realized total profits of 695.72 billion yuan, up 4.2% YoY; and private enterprises realized total profits of 772.65 billion yuan, up 10.7% YoY. Yu Weining, chief statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the profit data of industrial enterprises for January–May 2026. Yu Weining noted that the electronics sector played a significant supporting role. From January to May, profits of the equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 14.1% YoY, boosting the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 5.2 percentage points. From an industry perspective, the global AI technology revolution has led to explosive demand for high-end computing power chips and memory chips, driving rapid profit growth in the electronics sector. From January to May, profits of the electronics industry surged 103.9% YoY, contributing 43.1% to the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above designated size, making it a crucial underpinning for the relatively rapid profit growth of these enterprises. [Series of 7 National Standards for "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" Released] At a press conference held by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), it was announced that the series of national standards "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" has been officially released. With the rapid iteration of technologies such as large models, artificial intelligence is accelerating from the stage of perception and understanding into a new phase of generative decision-making and autonomous execution. An agent, as an intelligent system with capabilities in autonomous perception, memory, decision-making, interaction, and execution, represents an important application form of next-generation AI. It is also a key vehicle for AI technology to empower diverse industries and underpin high-quality development of the intelligent economy. The seven national standards in the "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" series released this time comprehensively cover core aspects including overall architecture, identity codes, identity management, agent description, agent discovery, agent interaction, and agent tool invocation. They systematically establish a closed-loop standards framework encompassing "identity identification—capability description—supply-demand discovery—collaborative interaction—tool invocation," effectively filling the standard gap in this field. With unified architecture and interaction rules established through these standards, enterprises can reuse standardized components, reduce customized development, and shorten time-to-market. At the same time, they lay an institutional foundation for cross-domain trustworthiness and secure interaction by establishing unified identity authentication and full traceability mechanisms. (CCTV News) The People's Bank of China and the General Administration of Customs have issued a notice to solicit public opinions on the "Administrative Measures for the Import and Export of Gold and Gold Products (Draft for Comments)." (From Wall Street News APP) [Three Departments: Further Improve the Collection of Mining Rights Transfer Proceeds] The Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, and the State Taxation Administration issued a notice on further improving the collection of mining rights transfer proceeds, clarifying that effective August 1, 2026, late payment fees on mining rights transfer proceeds will no longer be collected. If a mining rights holder fails to pay mining rights transfer proceeds on time and in full, a penalty of 0.2% per day will be charged starting from the date of default, and the total penalty will not exceed the principal amount overdue. The penalty for mining rights transfer proceeds shall be paid into the mining rights transfer proceeds revenue category and shared uniformly according to the central-local sharing ratio for mining rights transfer proceeds. Late payment fees incurred before the implementation of this notice shall continue to be paid according to the original regulations, and no penalty shall be imposed. On the US dollar: The US dollar index fell 0.1% overnight to 101.36. On a weekly basis, the index posted a second straight weekly gain, rising 0.6% for the week. As oil prices fell and the market reassessed US interest rate prospects, Treasury yields and the dollar moved lower. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of one rate hike this year remains high at 42%, while the probability of a second rate hike has fallen to 28% from 34% a week ago as inflation expectations have cooled. A Wall Street Journal survey indicates the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, to be released at 10 a.m. ET (10 p.m. Beijing time), is expected to rise to 49 from 44.8. (Jin10 Data APP) A Reuters poll showed that 78 of 102 economists surveyed expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in 2026, compared with 72 of 102 economists in early June. Artem Sakhbiev, FX strategist at BCA Research, said in a note that the dollar’s recent rebound appears overdone and lacks the support needed to break out of its trading range of the past year. The Fed revised up its rate forecasts at last week’s meeting and clearly focused on inflation. This pushed real yields sharply higher and eased concerns about political pressure for interest rate cuts, boosting the dollar. However, this move now looks largely exhausted. The Fed is likely to keep rates on hold, and the spread between short- and long-term yields could widen. (Jin10 Data APP) According to Nick Timiraos, known as the “Fed mouthpiece,” sources say the search for a new president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has stalled. The initial slate of candidates failed to produce a final choice, forcing the bank to relaunch a selection process that has already lasted seven months. On the surface, this was just a minor procedural hiccup. But at the same time, the independence of the US Fed is facing a severe test. Reserve Bank presidents are crucial to the Fed's independence: they participate in setting interest rates, and their appointment process is deliberately designed to avoid influence from Washington politics. (Jin10 Data App) Fed official Kashkari stated that signs of widespread inflation led him to expect one rate hike this year in the Fed economic forecasts released earlier this month. Rates are expected to remain unchanged in 2027. In a media interview on Friday, Kashkari said: "I am concerned about inflation, not just related to the Middle East situation, but signs of broader inflationary pressures in the economy." The Iran war pushed up oil prices, and prices rose across many categories. This has intensified concerns among some Fed officials that inflation is becoming more broad-based and persistent, potentially requiring stronger action from the central bank. A report released earlier this week showed the May PCE annual rate came in at 4.1%, the largest increase since April 2023. Prices have exceeded the Fed's 2% target for over five years. In the dot plot forecasts released by the Fed last week, half of the officials who submitted dot plot projections expected at least one rate hike this year. (Jin10 Data App) The US goods trade deficit widened to its highest level in over a year in May, as exports fell and imports rose. Data released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed the goods trade deficit expanded 27.4% from the previous month to $105.8 billion, compared to an expected deficit of $85 billion. US goods exports fell 5.4% in May, dragged down mainly by declines in multiple categories, including shipments of industrial supplies. This category covers crude oil and petroleum products. Over the same period, imports rose 3.6%. (From Wall Street CN APP) In other currency news: As London experiences record-breaking heat, Bank of England officials are starting to worry that weather could become the next shock driving up inflation, just as the previous supply shock is fading. Climate scientists increasingly expect a strong El Niño event to form later this year into 2027, disrupting global weather patterns. Now, economists are also concerned this could trigger a new round of supply shocks, push up food inflation, and once again frustrate global central banks' efforts to fight inflation. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of data including the Eurozone June industrial sentiment index, Eurozone June economic sentiment index, US June Dallas Fed business activity index, Japan May unemployment rate, China June official manufacturing PMI, UK Q1 GDP annual rate final, UK Q1 current account, France June CPI monthly rate preliminary, Switzerland June KOF economic leading indicator, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany June CPI monthly rate preliminary, Canada April GDP monthly rate, US April FHFA house price index monthly rate, US April S&P/CS 20-City non-seasonally adjusted house price index annual rate, US June Chicago PMI, US May JOLTS job openings, US June Conference Board consumer confidence index, China June RatingDog manufacturing PMI, France June manufacturing PMI final, Germany June manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone June manufacturing PMI final, UK June manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone June CPI annual rate preliminary, Eurozone June CPI monthly rate preliminary, US June Challenger job cuts, US June ADP employment change, US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI final, US June ISM manufacturing PMI, US May construction spending monthly rate, Switzerland June CPI monthly rate, Eurozone May unemployment rate, US June unemployment rate, US June seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27, US June average hourly earnings annual rate, US June average hourly earnings monthly rate, US May factory orders monthly rate, China June RatingDog services PMI, France May industrial output monthly rate, France June services PMI final, Germany June services PMI final, Eurozone June services PMI final, UK June services PMI final, and other data. Also worth watching this week: 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers a speech; The ECB holds its Central Banking Forum in Sintra, running through July 1; The 2026 Beijing Space Computing Conference takes place from June 29–30; ECB President Lagarde speaks in Sintra; The Reserve Bank of Australia releases its June monetary policy meeting minutes; The ECB holds its Central Banking Forum in Sintra; Technical talks between the US and Iran (pending); Fed Chairman Warsh, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speak at the ECB Forum; The ECB holds its Central Banking Forum in Sintra; ECB President Lagarde delivers a speech; Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks on the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy; And China will initiate a new round of adjustments to its refined oil product pricing window. Notably, on July 1, China-Hong Kong Stock Connect will be closed for the day in observance of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with both Northbound and Southbound trading shut. On July 3, the US-New York Stock Exchange will close for the US Independence Day holiday; Trading in precious metals, energy, forex, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts on the US-Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will end early on July 4 at 01:00 Beijing time due to the US Independence Day holiday; Trading in Brent crude oil futures contracts on the US-Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will end early on July 4 at 01:30 Beijing time for the same reason. In crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures declined, with WTI falling 2.34% and Brent falling 2.52%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures posted a third straight weekly decline, dropping 7.4% for the week; Brent futures also fell for a third straight week, losing 8.06%. Spot Brent crude oil prices have fallen back to pre-war levels, and the market for near-month contracts has been in contango—where near-term prices are lower than longer-term ones—for seven consecutive days, reflecting temporary oversupply. Tariq Zahir, a managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors, noted that oil prices "fell too far, too fast," that the ceasefire remains fragile and uncertainty persists in the Strait of Hormuz, and that he expects volatility to continue. Rich Privorotsky, head of One-Delta at Goldman Sachs, pointed out that Iran has begun shows of force near the Strait of Hormuz, some vessels have altered their routes, and the inventory buildup in the Gulf is gradually flowing into the market. He believes that upside potential for oil prices is limited in the near term, but that the case for significantly further downside from current levels is equally weak. (From Wallstreetcn APP) US natural gas drilling rigs recorded their largest single-week increase in four years. Data from Baker Hughes showed that the number of active oil drilling rigs operated by US energy enterprises reached 440 last week, marking a two-week consecutive increase, up from 433 the previous week. Active natural gas drilling rigs rose to 573, recording the largest gain since June 2022, compared with the prior figure of 563. (From Wall Street Cn APP) A report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that US refining capacity decreased by 263,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, a decline of 1.43%. This was primarily driven by the planned conversion of a major refinery in Houston and the closure of a refinery in the Los Angeles area due to market dynamics, which is known for strict environmental regulations. Marathon Petroleum, headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, maintained its position as the largest US refiner with a total refining capacity of 2.986 million bpd, accounting for 16.4% of the nation’s total capacity. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Furthermore, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil stated that OPEC has begun to gradually restore Iraq’s pre-war production quota, a move which will strengthen Iraq’s output capabilities and support the recovery of the oil sector. A high-level consensus has been reached within OPEC, fully taking into account Iraq’s past special circumstances and current actual needs. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Barclays said it has lowered its Brent crude oil price forecasts, cutting the 2026 estimate from $100 per barrel to $96, and the 2027 estimate from $88 to $85, citing the recovery of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded substantially, reaching about 80% of pre-war levels. However, this normalization process remains incomplete. The bank noted that Iran’s assertion of control through fee impositions and coordination mechanisms has created frictions and may potentially delay a full recovery. A temporary deal reached last week aimed at ending the US-Israeli war against Iran has allowed traffic on the Strait of Hormuz shipping route to resume. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Recommended Reading:

SMM, June 26: Against the backdrop of sluggish downstream demand, product prices across the cobalt industry chain showed a downward trend under pressure. Cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride recorded five consecutive declines this week, while refined cobalt spot quotations also fell below the round-number level of 380,000 yuan/mt during the week... SMM compiled the quotation changes for cobalt products this week as follows: : According to SMM spot quotations, although refined cobalt spot prices rose 2,500 yuan/mt on the last trading day, they still showed an overall decline this week. As of June 26, refined cobalt spot quotations were in the range of 374,000~385,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 379,500 yuan/mt, down 4,000 yuan/mt from June 18, a decline of 1.04%. Supply and demand side, on the supply front, mainstream smelters lowered their ex-factory quotations to 385,000 yuan/mt. After the deep price slump, most traders suspended market offerings, and wait-and-see sentiment dominated. On the demand side, the rush-to-buy-amid-continuous-price-rise and hold-back-amid-price-downturn mentality continued to curb the downstream procurement pace. Alloy-type enterprises remained on the sidelines and postponed restocking, while some magnetic material enterprises released small procurement demand near 380,000 yuan/mt, making selective restocking. In the short term, futures still face choppy pressure. A stabilization in refined cobalt prices requires two conditions: first, an easing of market funding pressure and a reduction in low-price sell-offs; second, that prices of related products such as cobalt salts stop falling and stabilize, forming support for market confidence. Cobalt intermediate product prices, according to SMM spot quotations, as of June 26, cobalt intermediate product (CIF China) spot prices remained stable earlier, then edged down $0.025/lb on the last trading day of the week. Quotations stayed in the range of $24.75-25.5/lb, with an average of $25.125/lb. The overall price center changed little. According to SMM, on the supply side of cobalt intermediate products, mainstream miners and traders maintained their offers near $25.5/lb, while downstream smelters remained conservative in procurement, with intended purchase prices generally below $25/lb. Some smelters even planned to sell their intermediate products at $24.8-24.9/lb, turning to procure low-priced recycled black mass to control production costs. On the logistics side, since May, some Chinese-invested miners have gradually increased chartered shipping volumes, and some leading miners have gradually resumed shipments since June. Port arrivals of intermediate products are expected to trend slowly upward in the following months, potentially forming concentrated batch arrivals after August. In the short term, end-use demand support is insufficient, and cobalt intermediate product prices will most likely continue to move sideways. Should prices strengthen going forward, a recovery in downstream operating rates and a repair of cobalt salt prices must form a resonance. Cobalt salt side ( and ): : According to SMM spot price data, cobalt sulphate spot prices continued to show persistent weakness this week. After five consecutive declines, spot cobalt sulphate prices dropped to 85,000-87,300 yuan/mt, with the average price reported at 86,150 yuan/mt, down 2,350 yuan/mt from 88,500 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 2.66%. According to SMM, the trading atmosphere in the cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish this week, with the spot price center slowly moving lower. Supply side performance continued to diverge: offers from primary smelters were relatively firm, with mainstream producers maintaining their minimum selling intention price above 85,000 yuan/mt; some recycling smelters and traders, under cash flow pressure, lowered offers further to 80,000-81,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, the continuous price erosion dampened downstream stockpiling confidence, with enterprises’ psychological price levels largely concentrated at 79,000-80,000 yuan/mt. Although some downstream purchase intention prices have converged with the lowest seller offers in the market, bulk transactions remained limited as the low-priced supply did not fully match downstream requirements in commercial terms and product quality. In the short term, the weak pattern of cobalt sulphate prices is hard to fundamentally reverse, and stabilization and rebound still await the material realization of downstream concentrated restocking demand. side: According to SMM spot price data, spot cobalt chloride prices also recorded five consecutive declines this week. As of June 26, spot cobalt chloride prices dropped to 104,000-106,500 yuan/mt, with the average price reported at 105,250 yuan/mt, down 3,750 yuan/mt from 109,000 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 3.44%. From a fundamental perspective, the cobalt chloride market continued to be extremely sluggish this week, with scarce actual transactions and spot liquidity almost drying up. Supply side, most smelters remained suspended from quoting, and sporadic offers more reflected cost bottom lines and psychological expectations. Against the backdrop of difficulty in achieving sales without substantial price concessions, their guiding significance for transactions has been quite limited. Demand side, downstream producers still held some raw material inventory to maintain turnover. In an environment of weak end-use demand and continuous price erosion, the “rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn” mentality combined with pessimistic expectations for the future further suppressed purchase willingness. Overall, although the pessimistic atmosphere in the cobalt chloride market was still spreading and the divergence between bulls and bears not fully resolved, a relatively positive signal emerged this week: current transactions could no longer factor in the semi-annual report performance window of various companies, and upstream offers in the market have stabilized after stopping falling, injecting a glimmer of hope into the overall pessimistic market sentiment. However, the direction for H2 remains unclear, and the guiding value of the July price trend remains prominent and warrants close attention. : According to SMM spot price assessments, spot Co3O4 quotes drifted lower this week. As of June 26, spot Co3O4 quotes fell to 329,000-341,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 335,000 yuan/mt, down 3,500 yuan/mt from 338,500 yuan/mt on June 18, a decline of 1.03%. According to SMM, the Co3O4 market also remained extremely sluggish this week, with very few actual transactions. On the supply side, upstream producers still held divergent views on the market outlook, but given that this week's deals could no longer be settled before the semi-annual report deadline, most previously bearish enterprises had largely completed their shipments, releasing price pressure in stages, and offers began to stabilize this week. On the demand side, although June is a traditional negotiation window, against the backdrop of persistently falling Co3O4 prices, downstream cathode material plants generally adopted a wait-and-see approach; even when they had purchasing intentions, they mainly pushed for significantly lower prices, and the continued price decline in turn further weakened upstream shipment motivation. Overall, the subsequent trend of Co3O4 will still depend on the price direction of cobalt salts. On the news front, recently, the May cobalt product import and export data were released. According to customs data, China's imports of unwrought cobalt in May 2026 were approximately 673 mt, down 50% MoM but up 3% YoY. By source, the top three regions for refined cobalt imports in May were Indonesia (211 mt), Madagascar (93 mt), and Canada (85 mt). The sharp drop in imports this month was mainly because previously accumulated overseas low-priced cobalt raw materials had been consumed, and the prices of newly imported cobalt plates and cobalt beans were higher than other domestic cobalt raw materials, leading to reduced willingness of smelters to purchase for remelting. On the import price side, the average import price of China's unwrought cobalt in May 2026 was $54,557/mt, up 3.48% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to May 2026 reached 6,589 mt, up 120% YoY. On the export side, China's unwrought cobalt exports in May 2026 were approximately 370 mt, up 70% MoM but down 88% YoY. By destination, China's exports to the Netherlands surged significantly, with May exports reaching 205 mt, up 791% MoM. On the export price side, the average export price of China's unwrought cobalt in May 2026 was $53,403/mt, down 2.17% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to May 2026 totaled 2,161 mt, down 79% YoY. Cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products, China's imports of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in May 2026 were approximately 2,584 mt in physical content, up 107% MoM and down 95% YoY, of which imports from the DRC were approximately 2,066 mt in physical content, up 119% MoM and down 96% YoY. The average import price of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in May 2026 was $16,607/mt in physical content, down 3.37% MoM. It is reported that since May, some Chinese miners have been increasing shipment bookings, and some leading miners have gradually resumed shipments from June. Port arrivals of intermediate products are expected to slowly increase in the coming months, and bulk arrivals are expected after August.

SMM June 26: This week, SHFE lead futures pulled back slightly, and secondary crude lead prices weakened in tandem. Smelters, facing widening losses, generally held back from selling, leaving spot order supply tight. Additionally, with the rebound in the SHFE/LME price ratio, imported crude lead generated a small profit. Looking ahead to next week, imported crude lead supply activity is expected to increase, while the tight supply pattern, supported by domestic smelter maintenance and tight raw material supplies, will remain unchanged. Overall, short-term sentiment was suppressed by the off-season, and secondary crude lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.

According to data from China Customs, in January-May 2026, China’s combined imports of refined lead and lead products totaled 248,443 mt, surging 291.06% YoY on a cumulative basis. The import window was wide open for most of H1, and overseas cargoes kept pouring in. Total imports had already exceeded the full-year 2025 level. On the export side, combined exports of refined lead and lead products in January-May amounted to only 20,197 mt, down 32.49% YoY, remaining at low levels.

PV film price negotiations for July are about to conclude early next week, with market expectations pointing to further price declines. According to SMM analysis, the weakening of EVA prices this month and the ongoing compression of film processing fees by downstream module producers are the main driving factors, coupled with a pullback in international oil prices recently, which has triggered bearish expectations for upstream raw materials. This has further squeezed the bargaining room for film pricing. However, upstream EVA producers have remained relatively "desensitized" to short-term cost fluctuations, with their pricing strategies focusing more on the supply-demand relationship in the market. Whether EVA prices can stabilize in the future will depend on variables such as the pace of module scheduled production increases and supply-side unit maintenance. The final outcome of this round of price negotiations and the subsequent developments on the EVA side warrant close market attention.

[Downstream enterprises actively priced at lows; spot premiums rose consecutively]: This week, Shanghai spot premiums rebounded from lows, up 10 yuan/mt WoW from the weekly average. As of Friday this week, ordinary domestic brands offered premiums of 0-10 yuan/mt against the 2607 contract, while high-end brand Shuangyan offered a premium of 100 yuan/mt against the 2607 contract..

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: May Inflation Data Basically in Line with Expectations, LME Zinc Maintains Fluctuating Trend] Overnight, LME zinc recorded a small bullish candlestick, with the lower Bollinger Band overhead forming resistance. The US May PCE data was basically in line with expectations, easing market expectations of further interest rate hikes by the US Fed...

Around June 24, 2026, import and export data for products related to the cobalt and lithium battery industry chain for May were released. The data shows that spodumene imports in May continued to pull back from April, reaching 681,000 mt in physical content, down 10% MoM, equivalent to approximately 66,000 mt of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). On the lithium carbonate import side, China imported 37,555 mt of lithium carbonate in May, up 15% MoM and up 78% YoY. Cumulative imports of lithium carbonate from January to May reached 153,000 mt, up 53% YoY year-to-date... SMM has consolidated the import and export situation of battery materials, as follows: Upstream Lithium Concentrates Customs data indicates that spodumene imports in May continued to pull back from April, reaching 681,000 mt in physical content. By source country, port arrivals of Australian ore returned to relatively normal levels, with arrivals exceeding 330,000 mt this month, down 6% MoM; shipments from Zimbabwe that were loaded earlier arrived at 63,800 mt this month, down 41% MoM; exports from South Africa and Nigeria from April to May were relatively stable, with port arrivals ranging from 90,000 to 110,000 mt per month. Arrivals from Mali were low this month, at only 38,000 mt, which increased MoM but have not returned to relatively high levels. Additionally, after SMM screening, it can be seen that the incoming ore for the month was equivalent to 66,000 mt of LCE. Lithium concentrates accounted for 81% of the incoming ore, with the trend rising MoM compared to the previous month. Source: China Customs, compiled by SMM > [SMM Analysis] China's spodumene imports reached 681,000 mt in physical content in May 2026, down 10% MoM, equivalent to approximately 66,000 mt of LCE On the spot quotation for spodumene concentrates (CIF China), according to SMM spot quotes, the spot quotation for spodumene concentrates (CIF China) in May showed a trend of rising first and then falling. As of May 29, the spot quotation for spodumene concentrates (CIF China) was around $2,571/mt, up $31/mt from $2,540/mt at month-end April, an increase of 1.22%. > Click to view SMM's spot quotes for new energy products In May, enterprises that purchase spodumene externally for lithium extraction still hovered near the break-even line. At the beginning of the month, lithium carbonate prices rebounded, but spodumene concentrates followed suit and at one point rose more than salt prices, leading to continued losses. In the first half of May, lithium carbonate prices further rose, and non-integrated enterprises might briefly achieve slim profits on the spot; after mid-month, ore prices fluctuated at highs while lithium carbonate pulled back, causing enterprises to fall back into losses, which lasted until month-end. Enterprises that purchase lepidolite externally for lithium extraction continued to see stable profits in May. Although lepidolite concentrate prices fluctuated at highs due to tight supply, their increase was smaller than the rise in lithium carbonate, leaving profit margins for the smelting end. May 12: Yichun Mining auctioned 5,700 mt of 2% lepidolite concentrate at a transaction price of 5,760 yuan/mt, reflecting the tight balance at the ore end. As of June 24, spodumene concentrate (CIF China) spot prices remained at $2,291/mt. Lithium Carbonate According to customs data, China imported 37,555 mt of lithium carbonate in May, up 15% MoM and up 78% YoY. Of this, 24,522 mt came from Chile (65% of total imports), 11,422 mt from Argentina (30%), and 1,023 mt from Indonesia (3%). From January to May, China’s cumulative lithium carbonate imports reached 153,000 mt, up 53% YoY. In May, China exported 201 mt of lithium carbonate, down 46% MoM and down 30% YoY. Cumulative exports from January to May totaled 2,087 mt, up 1% YoY. China imported 12,107 mt of lithium sulfate in May, down 33% MoM but up 53% YoY. Cumulative imports from January to May reached 71,000 mt, up 105% YoY. According to SMM spot price data, spot lithium carbonate prices in May also showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. As of May 29, spot lithium carbonate prices stood at 177,500 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from 177,000 yuan/mt on April 30, an increase of 0.28%. 》Click to view SMM New Energy product spot prices Looking back at the May lithium carbonate market, according to SMM, spot lithium carbonate prices in China fluctuated upward with a notable rise in the price center, and the average monthly price rose 12% MoM. From the fundamental side, supply-side disruptions continued to fester, while on the demand side, production schedules for downstream cathode materials and battery cells remained at high levels. The June production schedule is expected to accelerate further, and the supply-demand time mismatch remains unresolved. Upstream lithium chemical plants maintained firm prices and held back from selling throughout the month. The downstream showed divergence: some enterprises restocked on dips, but most had limited acceptance of high prices and mainly made just-in-time procurement, leaving actual transactions relatively sluggish. In May, spot battery-grade lithium carbonate prices kept rising amid fluctuations, with a notable gain at month-end compared to the start of the month. The most-traded futures contract briefly broke through the 200,000 yuan/mt mark during the month. As of June 24, spot battery-grade lithium carbonate prices were quoted at 154,000-161,000 yuan/mt, averaging 157,500 yuan/mt. According to SMM, entering June, the lithium carbonate market saw a clear tug-of-war between longs and shorts, with the price center shifting significantly lower than in May. On the supply side, disruptions such as declining exports from Chile and license renewals for mines in Jiangxi provided bottom support for lithium carbonate prices. However, pressure from high warrant levels and expectations of Zimbabwean ore arrivals capped the upside for prices. Downstream material plants maintain a dip-buying strategy amid falling lithium carbonate prices, with stronger willingness to restock when prices hit psychological levels but lacking momentum to chase rallies. Upstream lithium chemical plants, on the other hand, still hold sentiment to hold prices firm. Currently, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensifies. In the future, close attention should be paid to the warrant inflection point, the arrival pace of Zimbabwe lithium ore, and the extent to which downstream production schedules materialize. Spot lithium carbonate quotes are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term. Lithium Hydroxide According to customs data, in May 2026, China imported 3,932 mt of lithium hydroxide, down 41% MoM and up nearly fourfold YoY. Among them, imports from South Korea amounted to 2,029 mt, accounting for 51% of total imports; from Indonesia were 360 mt, marking a notable pullback; from Australia and Chile were 1,204 mt, making up 30%. In May, China exported 3,549 mt of lithium hydroxide, down 36% MoM and down 36% YoY, with 2,799 mt going to South Korea and 608 mt to Japan. Battery Materials LFP In May 2026, China's LFP exports reached 7,625.4 mt, up 29.3% MoM from April and up 710.0% YoY from May last year, setting a new monthly high for the year. On the pricing front, total export value in May was $62.6062 million, with an average unit price of roughly $8,210/mt, equivalent to about 55,951 yuan/mt, up around 6.9% from the April average. In terms of export destinations, there was a notable shift in May: exports to the US were the highest at 3,014.7 mt, leaping to first place; Thailand ranked second with 2,030.6 mt; exports to Malaysia totaled about 886 mt, ranking third; Japan and Vietnam recorded 620 mt and 420 mt, respectively. Compared with April, exports to Vietnam and Thailand increased significantly, while those to Poland and Canada declined. The overall export center shifted towards Southeast Asia and the US, which is closely related to the locations of battery cell manufacturers' clients. Overall, overseas demand remains robust. China's total LFP exports kept increasing, achieving multiple-fold growth YoY. In the future, as overseas battery capacity gradually comes onstream, China's LFP exports are expected to stay high. LiPF6 According to China customs data, in May 2026, China's cumulative exports of LiPF6 were approximately 1,500 mt, up about 72.8% MoM, while cumulative imports of LiPF6 were about 53.5 mt. On the export front, in May 2026, China's LiPF6 exports were about 1,500 mt, up about 72.8% MoM from April and up about 15.5% YoY. Specifically, this month, LiPF6 was mainly exported to South Korea, Poland, Malaysia, Japan, and other countries. Exports to Poland were 451.88 mt, up about 33.89% MoM; exports to South Korea were 591.006 mt, up about 622.47% MoM; exports to Japan were 109.8 mt, down about 42.62% MoM; and exports to the US were 77.4 mt, down about 24.05% MoM. Overall, overseas procurement volume for LiPF6 recovered somewhat in May. Artificial Graphite In May 2026, China's artificial graphite imports were 980 mt, up 29.5% MoM but down 21.8% YoY. In terms of the average import price, in May 2026, the average import price of China's artificial graphite stood at 60,148 yuan/mt, down 20.8% MoM but up 37.3% YoY. In May 2026, China's artificial graphite exports were 50,038 mt, up 9.03% MoM but down 4% YoY. In terms of the average export price, in May 2026, the average export price of China's artificial graphite stood at 7,729 yuan/mt, down 16.12% MoM and down 12.91% YoY. Looking at the overall export data, while total artificial graphite exports recorded MoM growth in May, the combined shipments of the top five exporting provinces in China registered a 19% MoM pullback. Performance by province diverged significantly, with two provinces seeing their exports down sharply 40% MoM, another province posting an MoM decline approaching 30%, and major production regions showing marked export weakness. Flake Graphite In May 2026, China's flake graphite imports were 5,944 mt, up 87% MoM and up 22% YoY. Data source: China Customs, SMM In May 2026, China's flake graphite exports were 7,641 mt, up 87% MoM but down 12% YoY. The significant 87% MoM rise in flake graphite exports in this period was mainly driven by the low base effect stemming from the delayed delivery of export orders in April. Affected by earlier logistics delays, production schedule postponements, and other factors, export shipments in April were at a relatively low level, and previously backlogged export orders were concentrated for customs declaration and shipment in May, driving a sharp MoM increase in export volumes this month. Phosphate Ore In May 2026, China's phosphate ore imports stood at 131,000 mt, down 36.4% MoM, with an average price of $93/mt, down slightly 2.6% MoM. Import sources were highly concentrated in Egypt (128 kt, accounting for 97.7%), while shipments from Peru and Jordan were interrupted. Exports stood at 32 kt, up 189.6% MoM, with Hubei resuming exports of 21 kt. The Egyptian government halted new export contracts in mid-May, intensifying supply uncertainty going forward, which may further pressure import costs. The provincial mix shifted dramatically as Hubei imports fell to zero and Guangxi reclaimed the top spot. Characteristics of China’s phosphate ore import market in May: First, total volume pulled back significantly, with imports down more than one-third MoM; second, sources were highly concentrated, with Egypt alone accounting for as much as 97.7%, while shipments from Peru and Jordan were interrupted; third, the provincial mix shifted dramatically, as Hubei imports fell to zero and Guangxi reclaimed the top spot. The Egyptian government announced in mid-May that it would stop signing new phosphate ore export contracts. The uncertainty surrounding Egyptian cargo supply will rise markedly in the coming months, potentially pushing import costs higher and exacerbating tight supply. At the same time, the recovery in exports from Hubei and Guizhou reflects a rebalancing of the regional supply-demand pattern for domestic phosphate ore. Cobalt Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Intermediate Products In May 2026, China’s imports of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products were approximately 2,584 mt in physical content, up 107% MoM and down 95% YoY. Imports from the DRC were approximately 2,066 mt in physical content, up 119% MoM and down 96% YoY. The average import price of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in China in May 2026 was $16,607/mt in physical content, down 3.37% MoM. Reports indicate that some Chinese-invested miners have gradually increased chartered shipments since May, with several leading miners progressively resuming shipments from June onward. Port arrivals of intermediate products are expected to slowly pick up in the coming months and are likely to achieve bulk arrival volumes after August. Unwrought Cobalt In May 2026, China’s imports of unwrought cobalt were approximately 673 mt, down 50% MoM and up 3% YoY. In May, the top three sources by refined cobalt import volume were Indonesia (211 mt), Madagascar (93 mt), and Canada (85 mt). The sharp MoM decline in imports was mainly due to the depletion of low-priced cobalt raw materials previously accumulated outside China, while newly imported cobalt plates and cobalt briquettes were priced higher than other domestic cobalt raw materials, reducing smelters’ willingness to purchase for dissolution. The average import price of unwrought cobalt in China in May 2026 was $54,557/mt, up 3.48% MoM. Cumulative imports in January-May 2026 totaled 6,589 mt, up 120% YoY. Exports, in May 2026 China's unwrought cobalt exports were approximately 370 mt, up 70% MoM and down 88% YoY. By destination, exports to the Netherlands surged to 205 mt in May, up 791% MoM. Average export price, the average export price of China's unwrought cobalt in May 2026 was $53,403/mt, down 2.17% MoM. Cumulative exports in January-May 2026 totaled 2,161 mt, down 79% YoY.

In May, China's magnesium product exports fell 4% MoM to 37.6kt. Magnesium ingot exports rose 13.7% MoM on auto and aluminum demand, while magnesium powder and alloy dropped 31.3% and 22.5% due to weak overseas demand. Japan's Jan-May imports surged 76.6% YoY, likely front-loaded, with downside risks in H2. Full-year exports are still expected to see modest growth despite headwinds from freight costs and maintenance shutdowns.

On June 17, 2026, the 2026 SMM (3rd) ASEAN Automotive Supply Chain Conference , organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), successfully wrapped up at the Hyatt Regency Bangkok Suvarnabhumi Airport in Bangkok, Thailand! This conference serves as an annual gathering of Southeast Asia's auto industry, bringing together 500+ delegates, 40+ speakers, 10+ partners and 35+ exhibitors from 15+ countries. Conference Background The Southeast Asian EV industry is at a strategic crossroads. Thailand's "30/30" policy is driving adoption, with EV penetration projected to near 15% by 2025. Indonesia is building a full battery chain using its nickel resources, while Vietnam's market potential grows. Amidst supply chain restructuring and technological competition, strategic action is key. The 3rd SMM Asean Automotive Supply Chain Summit 2026 is designed to empower businesses by focusing on: Unlocking NEV Potential: Analyzing ASEAN's role as a production/export hub and examining OEM technology roadmaps. Bridging the Supply Chain: Leveraging SMM's platform to integrate resources and facilitate deals. Establishing a Price Benchmark: Promoting the use of SMM Southeast Asia metals price assessments in procurement. We believe in turning consensus into action. Join us in Bangkok in 2026 to transform strategic blueprints into tangible advantages. 》Click to Watch the Conference Live Video 》Click to View the Conference Photo Live Stream June 16 Main Forum Opening Address Speaker: Adam Fan, Chairman of SMM Opening Keynote: Thailand EV Outlook 2026 Guest Speaker: Dr. Yossapong Laoonual, Honorary Chairman and Advisors, Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand (EVAT) Dr. Yossapong Laoonual noted that the ownership of battery electric vehicle (BEV) models is expected to surpass that of hybrid models in the medium and long term. Thailand’s BEV penetration rate will also rise steadily, supported by well-developed charging infrastructure. Data shows that the number of DC charging piles in Thailand has continued to grow, with installations already exceeding the government’s planned phased targets. The country’s 2030 charging pile target is 12,000 units, and multiple supporting regulations for motor vehicles have already been implemented locally. Local planning stipulates that each pile should serve 10-15 BEVs. Compared with markets outside China, where each pile in Europe serves fewer than 15 BEVs on average and in China fewer than 10, Thailand currently faces an imbalanced vehicle-to-pile ratio and still requires the large-scale addition of new charging piles. Thailand’s charging piles are primarily located at gas stations, with shopping malls and office buildings as secondary deployment sites. Local gas stations feature diverse commercial formats, offering excellent conditions for setting up charging stations. However, range anxiety remains widespread among consumers, and charging facilities along highways need to be further improved to alleviate concerns about recharging on the road. Opening Keynote: Southeast Asia’s New Automotive Ambition:Can Industry Players Successfully Navigate Transformation Amid Challenges? Guest Speaker: Krzysztof Tokarz, Chairman of the Automotive Working Group, TEBA Founder of Auteneo He stated that there were four core strategic challenges in the electrification transformation of Southeast Asian automakers: First, a shortage of professional talent, with undersupply of high-quality talent in the EV and software fields, fierce competition for industry talent, and enterprises needing to plan for talent cultivation and retention; Second, cross-cultural coordination difficulties: significant differences in working models among Chinese, Japanese, Korean, European, American, and local enterprises, which easily led to issues such as lack of trust and poor cooperation; Third, complex and changing regional regulations: fragmented regulatory systems across Southeast Asian countries, with a fast pace of policy updates over the past year or more, placing high demands on enterprises' policy adaptation capabilities; Fourth, profitability pressure, as electrification reshaped the pricing system, with many automakers experiencing simultaneous contraction in revenue and profit margins, necessitating the exploration of long-term profitable models. Overall, he believed that while he currently maintained a cautiously optimistic attitude towards the development of industry technology and products, the aforementioned challenges still urgently needed to be addressed. Panel Discussion: Leadership Dialogue: East Asian Titans' "Southeast Asian Chessboard" Moderator: David Huang, The Head of Strategy, Marketing and Business Development, Forvia China Panelists: Dr. Yossapong Laoonual, Honorary Chairman and Advisors, Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand (EVAT) Suphot Sukphisarn, Honorary Chairman, Auto Parts Industry Club (APIC), The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), Deputy Secretary General, Thai Auto-Parts Manufacturers Association (TAPMA） Krzysztof Tokarz, Chairman of the Automotive Working Group at TEBA, Founder of Auteneo Dr. Viroj Patcharawatanakul, Chief Marketing Officer (CMO), AAPICO Hitech PCL. The panelists noted that ASEAN countries have distinct industrial advantages: Malaysia has ample electronic factory resources, Indonesia possesses mineral resources needed for battery production, and Vietnam offers comprehensive labor incentive policies. To fully leverage each country's locational appeal, overall integrated planning is required. The ASEAN NEV market is expanding rapidly overall, with the regional EV penetration rate more than doubling. Thailand and Vietnam have seen impressive growth in XEV production and sales. Local vehicle production capacity remains stable, and Chinese new energy brands such as BYD, MG, and Great Wall have established a presence in Thailand, driving up demand for new energy parts supply. Thailand has a well-established multi-tier parts supply system: 27 vehicle manufacturers, 500 Tier 1 suppliers, and 1,800 Tier 2 and Tier 3 parts producers. Traditional mechanical processing industries like stamping, injection molding, rubber processing, machining, casting and forging, and assembly have a solid foundation, with huge annual parts capacity, providing the manufacturing capability to support new energy parts production. Keynote Speech: Navigating Automotive Disruption in Southeast Asia Guest Speaker: Timothy Wong, Principal, Roland Berger Roland Berger noted that AI-driven automation continues to advance and autonomous driving is developing steadily. It is expected that by 2040, autonomous driving will still struggle to become mainstream. However, AI technology has already disrupted the automotive industry, becoming a core driving force for enterprises to build differentiated advantages, enhance competitiveness, and innovate business models. The automotive industry is currently undergoing comprehensive disruptive changes, mainly in five dimensions: First, the automotive supply chain value chain is undergoing fundamental transformation, with vehicles and core parts upgrading toward electrification and electronics. Industry enterprises urgently need to adjust their product structures and proactively position themselves in emerging tracks; passively responding to market changes will entail significant risks. Second, the nature of automotive products is being reshaped by technology, shifting from traditional mechanical vehicles to software-defined vehicles. Sole mechanical manufacturing capabilities can no longer meet development needs; enterprises must build diversified cooperation ecosystems involving semiconductors, software, and sensors to cultivate new industrial capabilities. Third, the consumer market is undergoing significant iteration, with consumer car purchase preferences gradually tilting toward emerging brands, and industry competition continuing to intensify. Fourth, the pace of market iteration has greatly accelerated. Compared with the model update pace of once every few years by traditional automakers, Chinese brands iterate at a much faster pace, forcing the supply chain toward agile transformation and adaptation to rapidly changing vehicle specifications. Fifth, the aftersales distribution model is being disrupted, with traditional parts revenue being impacted by the growth of EVs. New direct-to-consumer models are emerging, requiring enterprises to restructure their distribution networks and expand aftersales services related to power batteries and electrification. Overall, all industry participants must proactively face transformation risks, actively transform and strategically restructure supply chains, vigorously explore new clients and deploy new businesses, abandon passive thinking that clings to existing models, and proactively plan future business development directions, so as to continuously maintain market competitiveness. Keynote Speech: Moving Beyond Negotiation: Fostering a New Framework for Southeast Asian Supply Chain Collaboration Based on the SMM Price Index Guest Speaker: Sing Yao, Director of Steel Business Unit, SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. She noted that Southeast Asia as a whole exhibits low per capita automobile ownership, limited NEV penetration, and a large young population, which holds enormous incremental market potential. This vast blue ocean is attracting leading Chinese NEV manufacturers to accelerate their footprint in the region. At the same time, however, Southeast Asian auto parts are highly dependent on imports, and the industry chain has long faced two major pain points: procurement difficulties and disorderly pricing. The launch of the SMM Southeast Asia Price Index may open up a new path for collaborative development of the local automotive supply chain. Low Per Capita Automobile Ownership, Limited NEV Penetration, and Large Young Population Create Vast Market Opportunities for Automakers According to SMM, in recent years, Southeast Asia’s automotive industry chain has shown remarkable resilience, with regional automobile production growing by 24.1% from 2020 to 2022. Although 2024 saw a cyclical decline for the first time due to global economic sluggishness, the decline in production and sales in Thailand and the broader Southeast Asian market has narrowed in 2025, underscoring the self-repair capability of the regional supply chain. As the region’s core hub, Thailand continues to dominate Southeast Asia’s automotive industry landscape with a capacity share of over 40%. In the short term, Thailand will maintain its position as a regional production center and export base, but its long-term competitive advantages are facing structural challenges: the sustained contraction of local capacity and the upgrading of neighboring countries’ industry chains are compelling it to accelerate technological transformation and supply chain restructuring. Driven by the immense allure of this industry “blue ocean,” leading Chinese NEV manufacturers are accelerating their expansion into the Southeast Asian automotive market. Keynote Speech:Baowu JFE Southeast Asia Strategy Sharing Guest Speaker: Liang Chen, Vice General Manager, Baowu Jiefuyi Special Steel Co., Ltd. He that overall steel production in Southeast Asia is declining, but the penetration rate of new energy electric vehicles (EVs) is surging: Thailand’s EV-related demand is up 80% YoY, while Indonesia’s demand has experienced a multiple-fold rise, with subsequent growth potential continuing to be released. Local NEV manufacturers previously purchased Japanese steel, but are gradually switching suppliers now, driven by industry competition and cost pressure. This also represents a core opportunity for the company to promote its supporting supply services. Leadership Panel: The Steel vs. Aluminum Debate and Cost Challenges Moderator: Michelle Leung, Head of Asia Metals and Mining, sustainability, Bloomberg LP Panelists: Thanakorn Thangwanichkapong, Director of Asia Operations, Maxion Wheels Martin Dilly, Southeast Asia Area Sales Director, Bureau Veritas The panelists noted that multiple disruptions, including the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and national tariff adjustments, have moved beyond short-term impact and are driving the restructuring of the entire steel and aluminum industry chain, with the structural transformation of the aluminum industry being particularly pronounced. Global supply chain vulnerability continues to intensify, and upward cost pressure on the industry has increased. Tariff barriers are reshaping the global trade landscape, and market competition is becoming increasingly fierce. The implementation of industrial localization has accelerated, but the pace of progress in Southeast Asia has seen a slowdown. Overall, only enterprises that possess both flexible logistics and procurement capabilities and a robust compliance management system can gain an advantage amid the industry transformation. Keynote Speech: Analysis of Southeast Asia's Secondary Aluminum Market and Price Trends Guest Speaker: Wong Yan Ling, Senior Aluminum Analyst, SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. She noted that Southeast Asia has become one of the fastest-growing secondary aluminum markets globally, and the worldwide competition for scrap resources is continuously reshaping the regional supply landscape. As resource protection policies are progressively implemented across various countries and regional manufacturing demand steadily expands, ASEAN countries are expected to further consolidate their core position in the global secondary aluminum industry chain. Regarding secondary aluminum price trends in H2 2026, SMM analysis suggests that weak seasonal demand in Southeast Asia may suppress the upside room for secondary aluminum prices, while the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains a key variable affecting market trends. If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, cost pressures from logistics could ease. However, persistently tight scrap supply coupled with potential logistics disruptions may still drive up regional secondary aluminum prices. Specialized Seminar: Co-building a Resilient Automotive Materials Supply Chain for Southeast Asia Moderator: Sing Yao, Director of Steel Business Unit, SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. Panelists: Zongyan Fu, Purchasing Manager, Changan Auto Southeast Asia Co., Ltd. Weijiang Xue, Chief Engineer of Product R&D, Jiangsu Yonggang Group Co.,Ltd. Hui Yuan, General Manager, Tianjin Dewy Metal Surface Treatment Co., Ltd. Yi Huang, Deputy General Manager, Guangdong Superband Precision Industry Co.，Ltd. Thanakorn Thangwanichkapong, Director of Asia Operations, Maxion Wheels Hongwei Liu, General Manager, BYH NEW TECHNOLOGY CO., LTD. Saurabh Sharma, Sr General Manager & Executive Director, Hero Motors Thai Ltd. Zou Xiang, Business Office Director, Baowu Jiefuyi Special Steel Co., Ltd HaiBin Jia, Deputy Marketing Director, Beijing Jianlong Heavy Industry Group Co., Ltd. The panelists engaged in in-depth exchanges, drawing from their own business practices, focusing on the core topic of deep development in the Southeast Asian automotive industry. They focused on enterprises' current business layouts, operating status, and development trends in the Southeast Asian automotive market, and deeply analyzed core pain points and challenges such as supply chain adaptation, stable supply, and logistics support in the process of going global. At the same time, they shared detailed experiences regarding common challenges faced by enterprises going global, including localization certification, compliance system adaptation in and outside China, and alignment of policy standards. They also discussed core paths for enterprises to anticipate market changes, precisely allocate industrial resources, and quickly adapt to regional market rules and industry demands, focusing on industry trends. Furthermore, focusing on supply-demand coordinated development, they elaborated on their expectations for future cooperation models, collaboration mechanisms, and partnership needs with Chinese material suppliers. As buyers, they also clarified the types and directions of high-quality Southeast Asian clients they plan to prioritize for connection and cooperation, providing practical ideas and references for precise supply-demand matching and deep cultivation of the Southeast Asian automotive market for Chinese enterprises going global. Day 2: June 17 Keynote Speech: Analysis and Outlook of the Supply Chain in the Southeast Asian New Energy Market Speaker: Jena Wang, New Energy Consulting Project Manager, SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. She stated that driven by the rapid growth of the Southeast Asian NEV market, several automakers are accelerating their localization strategies. Battery demand in each country will also increase rapidly, with the region's total battery demand expected to grow by about ten times from 2025 to 2030, reaching approximately 201 GWh. However, it is worth noting that currently, Southeast Asia faces issues with low localization rates, significant structural gaps, and heavy import dependence for cathode materials and motor components. In Southeast Asia, the supply of local cathode materials and key motor components cannot meet demand, and the low localization rate and large capacity gaps have become key bottlenecks restricting the development of the NEV industry chain in the region. Data indicates that China's global production share of key new energy raw materials—such as batteries, cathode materials, lithium chemicals, and rare earth permanent magnets—generally exceeds 70%, with its capacity ranking first worldwide, demonstrating a significant advantage. In addition, she introduced the capacity distribution and industrialisation progress of key materials in the new energy markets of core Southeast Asian countries. Vietnam: Local automaker VinFast is boosting rapid development of the entire vehicle and upstream/downstream supporting industry chain. Thailand: As a core hub for automotive manufacturing and export in Southeast Asia, it boasts a relatively complete supporting system for motor and electric drive-related industries. Malaysia: It possesses a mature automotive industry foundation, but its local supporting capability for the three electric systems is insufficient; local policies focus on supporting vehicle assembly and regional distribution operations. Indonesia: With abundant nickel resources, it holds a pronounced competitive edge in the battery raw material industry. Overall, SMM believes that the capacity for core new energy components in Southeast Asia is relatively small. National policies are promoting localisation and industrial upgrading, leaving significant room for supply chain development. Leadership Panel: Supply Chain Security and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Moderator: Peter Klöpfer, Senior Manager Automotive Business Unit, RUTRONIK Electronics Worldwide Panelists: Akshay Prasad, Principal, Arthur D. Little SEA Alex Zhan, Head, ZF LIFETEC Thailand Asst.Prof.Uthane Supatti Ph.D., Head of the Power Electronics Applications and Energy Management (PEEM) Research Unit, Faculty of Engineering at Sriracha, Kasetsart University, Thailand Vice President, Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand (EVAT) The panelists discussed about core themes of the Southeast Asian automotive supply chain. First, they addressed the delivery timeline crisis caused by sudden supply shortages, the crisis of lacking transparency in the industry chain, the crisis of industry-wide collaboration barriers, and the crisis of trust failure between upstream and downstream players. They jointly explored systematic resolution strategies and elaborated on their respective countermeasures. Building on this, the on-site guests further discussed the Japanese industry chain and China’s domestic supply chain, analyzing the development opportunities, long-term prospects, and practical implementation logic of two-way opening, healthy competition and cooperation, and deep integration between the two. Leadership Panel: Capacity Coopetition and Customer Breakthrough: Winning the Southeast Asian Supply Chain Battle Moderator: Wacharapisuth Thannapong, Researcher, BCG (Bio-Circular-Green Economy Policy) Research Team, Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) Panelists: MARK BRIAN PIRIE, Senior Vice President Purchasing & Supplier Management Asia Pacific, Executive Board Member, Schaeffler Frank Yu, General Manager of the Automotive Rubber & Metal Components Business Unit and Thailand Branch, Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation The panelists assessed the overheating of three-electric system (battery, motor, electronic control) capacity in Southeast Asia. They noted that overcapacity in three-electric systems is a global trend. The capacity now deployed in Southeast Asia and Thailand already exceeds confirmed demand, intensifying market uncertainty and heightening investment concerns. Risks are structurally differentiated: Tier-1 suppliers are more conservative and risk-averse compared to China’s domestic vehicle makers that are rapidly going global. There is localized overcapacity in basic e-drive parts and low-difficulty electronic components, while supply bottlenecks persist for key items such as high-performance automotive-grade semiconductors, advanced materials, and electrical steel. This is also a core motivation for Chinese suppliers setting up in Southeast Asia. Moreover, Southeast Asia’s geographical advantages are prominent, and mine development in Australia is progressing rapidly. Many mines are set to commence production by Q3 next year. The core contradiction in the industry is not simply overall surplus, but a mismatch between the regional allocation of capacity, the technologies adopted, and actual market demand. Additionally, the guests noted that the core challenges in Southeast Asia and Thailand revolve around three major issues: regional adaptation, supply chain gaps, and industrial competition and collaboration. Enterprises must independently weigh risks and expansion scales based on their own supply chain conditions to find a development balance suited to their needs. Meanwhile, to adapt to the unique environment of Southeast Asia—characterized by high temperatures, high humidity, floods, complex road conditions, and underdeveloped charging infrastructure—the EV technologies originally designed for the Chinese and European markets must undergo localized R&D and verification. This process ensures the reliability of batteries, electronic controls, and lubrication systems, as well as overall vehicle durability. It is recommended that Tier 1 suppliers and upstream partners proactively collaborate in depth with OEM design teams. Even for domestically mature production car models going global in Southeast Asia, it is essential to iterate and optimize products by leveraging local expansion opportunities while drawing on the cost, process, and quality control expertise gained from large-scale domestic production. Leadership Panel: Techno-Economic Analysis and Strategic Pathways for Battery Material Localization in Southeast Asias Moderator: Jay Yu, Senior director, SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. Panelists: Brian, Sales Director for the Electrolyte Division in Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, TINCI Materials Max Miao, Director, SEVB Thailand Feng Hao, Southeast Asia Marketing Director, Hefei Guoxuan High-Tech Power Energy Co., Ltd. The panelists noted that amid the restructuring of global manufacturing, Southeast Asia’s lithium battery industry faces both challenges and opportunities. Enterprises are following downstream OEM clients in going global, establishing nearby supply systems centered on customer needs. Three key operational aspects require consideration. First, at the policy level, Southeast Asia’s lithium battery industry must supply both the local market and target exports to Europe and the U.S. Regional policy changes have far-reaching impacts, requiring enterprises to conduct ongoing in-depth analysis and implement corresponding response strategies. Second, in terms of human and cultural factors, local traditions and family values are distinct, necessitating flexible management that fully respects local customs, cares for local employees, and stabilizes production teams. Third, regarding the industry chain, the region’s upstream lithium battery materials are notably underdeveloped. Key raw materials such as high-purity solvents, lithium chemicals, and functional additives currently rely heavily on imports from China, Japan, and South Korea. The establishment and improvement of local upstream and downstream supply capabilities urgently need to be addressed, making this a key focus for future enterprise deployment. In addition, they also mentioned that in H2 this year, NEV-related subsidies in Southeast Asia may be gradually phased out, and Thailand's EV 4.0 policy and the year-end tax rebate policy will also undergo adjustments. Drawing on China's NEV development experience, local automakers will gradually break free from reliance on policy subsidies and instead compete in the market by leveraging product strength and market-based pricing. This year, Thailand's NEV sales are conservatively estimated to reach 120,000 units, with a potential to hit 160,000 units. Compared with Japanese car models, Chinese NEV models have ample room for price adjustment, offering a clear advantage. Currently, battery enterprises are actively assisting automakers in expanding markets and securing more orders, while also suggesting that automakers moderately raise vehicle selling prices. The industry generally believes that automakers will most likely offset the operational pressure from subsidy reductions through price adjustments in the future. Procurement Matchmaking Meeting >Click to view more highlights from the event Check-in & Networking This is the end of the 2026 SMM (3rd) ASEAN Automotive Supply Chain Conference . Thank you for the support of all industry peers. See you next year!