In mid-May 2026, CAAM and the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance successively released data on the auto and power battery markets for April 2026. CAAM stated that in April, auto production and sales declined slightly compared to the same period last year, with the cumulative decline in production and sales narrowing further. Among them, domestic demand still needs improvement and stimulation; exports continued to grow rapidly, providing stable support for the overall market........SMM has compiled relevant data on the auto market and power battery market for April 2026 for readers' reference. Auto Sector CAAM: Auto Production and Sales Reached 2.575 Million and 2.526 Million Units Respectively in April In April, auto production and sales reached 2.575 million and 2.526 million units respectively, down 11.7% and 12.9% MoM, and down 1.7% and 2.5% YoY. From January to April, auto production and sales reached 9.614 million and 9.574 million units respectively, down 5.5% and 4.8% YoY. CAAM: NEV Production and Sales Both Grew in April, with NEV Sales Accounting for 53.2% of Total Auto Sales In April, NEV production and sales reached 1.32 million and 1.344 million units respectively, up 5.5% and 9.7% YoY . NEV sales accounted for 53.2% of total new auto sales. From January to April, NEV production and sales reached 4.285 million and 4.304 million units respectively, with production down 3.2% YoY and sales up 0.1% YoY . NEV sales accounted for 45% of total new auto sales. CAAM: NEV Exports More Than Doubled YoY In April, auto exports reached 901,000 units, up 3% MoM and up 74.4% YoY . From January to April, auto exports reached 3.127 million units, up 61.5% YoY . In April, NEV exports reached 430,000 units, up 16% MoM and up 1.1 times YoY ; traditional fuel vehicle exports reached 472,000 units, down 6.5% MoM and up 49% YoY . From January to April, NEV exports reached 1.384 million units, up 1.2 times YoY; traditional fuel vehicle exports reached 1.743 million units, up 34.6% YoY. CAAM commented that since the beginning of this year, China's economy has started strongly, with major indicators exceeding expectations. China's automotive industry has maintained steady progress in transformation and upgrading, foreign trade has demonstrated strong resilience, and overall competitiveness has continued to improve. The recently concluded Beijing auto show showcased cutting-edge achievements in electrification, intelligence, and cross-industry integration, vividly demonstrating that China has become the core market and innovation hub of the global automotive industry. Regarding the April auto market, CAAM stated that in April, auto production and sales declined slightly compared to the same period last year, with cumulative production and sales declines narrowing further. Specifically, domestic demand still needs improvement and stimulation; exports continued to grow rapidly, providing stable support for the overall market. In detail, the passenger vehicle market declined, the commercial vehicle market maintained growth, and NEVs operated steadily. On April 28, the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work, and made a series of important arrangements. The meeting emphasized the need to fully utilize macro policies, deeply tap domestic demand potential, accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system, and systematically respond to external shocks and challenges. This will help improve the domestic auto market, consolidate foreign trade advantages, and promote stable operation and high-quality development of the industry. CPCA also released data on the April passenger vehicle market. April national passenger vehicle retail sales reached 1.384 million units, down 21.5% YoY and down 16.0% MoM; cumulative retail sales from January to April reached 5.604 million units, down 18.5% YoY. The April national passenger vehicle market exhibited complex characteristics of "total volume under pressure with structural divergence." NEV side, April passenger NEV retail sales reached 849,000 units, down 6.8% YoY and down 0.3% MoM; January-April passenger NEV retail sales reached 2.758 million units, down 17.2% YoY. April conventional fuel passenger vehicle retail sales were 530,000 units, down 37% YoY and down 33% MoM. NEV export side, as the scale advantages of China's NEVs become apparent and market expansion demand grows, Chinese-manufactured new energy brand products are increasingly going global, with overseas recognition continuing to rise. April passenger NEV exports reached 406,000 units, up 111.8% YoY and up 18.3% MoM, accounting for 52.7% of passenger vehicle exports, up 8 percentage points YoY; among which, BEVs accounted for 57.2% of new energy exports (65.5% in the same period last year), and A00+A0 class BEVs as the core focus accounted for 51.2% of BEV exports (46% in the same period last year). CPCA stated that this year's passenger vehicle market, affected by multiple factors including NEV purchase tax policy adjustments, weak consumer confidence, and high oil prices, has exhibited an operating trend of "China slowing down, exports growing rapidly; fuel vehicles contracting, new energy dominating."High oil prices dealt a heavy blow to domestic retail of internal combustion engine vehicles, directly affecting the domestic retail recovery process. From January to February this year, internal combustion engine vehicle retail declined by 740,000 units YoY, accounting for 40% of the passenger vehicle retail decline; in March, internal combustion engine vehicle sales declined by 345,000 units YoY, accounting for 52% of the passenger vehicle retail decline; in April, internal combustion engine vehicle sales declined by 365,000 units YoY, with the decline share further expanding to 84%. Under the atmosphere of cost anxiety, consumer demand is accelerating its shift from internal combustion engine vehicles to new energy vehicles, and the market's "fuel-electric divergence" pattern is becoming increasingly prominent. However, on the export side, the opposite was true: from January to February, internal combustion engine vehicle exports grew by 100,000 units YoY, accounting for 25% of the passenger vehicle export growth; in March, internal combustion engine vehicle exports grew by 100,000 units, accounting for 32% of the passenger vehicle export growth; in April, internal combustion engine vehicle exports grew by 130,000 units, climbing to 38%. Due to the notable effects of recent anti-involution measures in the auto market, the scale of price cuts was small, promotional levels remained stable, and many consumers' expectations of waiting for price reductions gradually faded, with some users in stalemate beginning to make car purchases. The Beijing Auto Show in April has become the world's largest auto show, with enormous industry chain scale and influence, providing a strong boost to auto sales recovery in late April. Characteristics of the passenger vehicle market in April 2026: First, overall volume was under pressure with significant structural divergence, with "cold fuel, hot new energy" becoming the biggest focal point. The core reason for the domestic retail decline was the "collapse of fuel vehicles," with new energy retail penetration rate reaching 61.4% (breaking through 60% for the first time in history), and the pace of electrification substitution exceeding expectations. Second, domestic brand share continued to strengthen, with traditional domestic brands successfully transforming, while joint venture brands lagged in electrification progress, solidifying the "domestic brand dominance" pattern. Third, exports showed explosive growth, with new energy accounting for 52.7% (breaking through 50% for the first time in history), driven by the "new energy + domestic brands" dual engine, making "going global" the core growth engine. Fourth, passive destocking characteristics were evident, with channel inventory declining rapidly, listed dealers suffering comprehensive losses, and dealer survival pressure continuing to intensify. Fifth, dramatic structural changes within new energy occurred, with B-class EVs surging and economy EVs under pressure, showing "high-end rising, low-end struggling." Sixth, new model contribution declined: April producer sales of new models launched in 2026 reached 108,400 units, accounting for 5.1% of total volume, while new models launched in 2025 sold 130,000 units in April 2025, with some classic car models maintaining stable leading sales positions. Power battery segment Power and ESS battery sales up 39.0% YoY in April, up 48.9% YoY cumulatively from January to April In April, China's power and ESS battery sales reached 164.2 Gwh, down 6.2% MoM, up 39.0% YoY . Among them, power battery sales were 108.9 GWh, accounting for 66.4% of total sales, down 5.0% MoM and up 25.8% YoY; ESS battery sales were 55.2 GWh, accounting for 33.6% of total sales, down 8.5% MoM and up 75.5% YoY. From January to April, China's cumulative power and ESS battery sales reached 601.2 GWh, up 48.9% YoY cumulatively . Among them, cumulative power battery sales were 400.9 GWh, accounting for 66.7% of total sales, up 31.9% YoY cumulatively; cumulative ESS battery sales were 200.4 GWh, accounting for 33.3% of total sales, up 100.4% YoY cumulatively. China's Power Battery Installations Up 15.2% YoY in April, Cumulative Installations Up 1.6% YoY from January to April In April, China's power battery installations were 62.4 GWh, up 10.4% MoM and up 15.2% YoY . Among them, ternary battery installations were 11.5 GWh, accounting for 18.5% of total installations, up 7.6% MoM and up 24.2% YoY; LFP battery installations were 50.8 GWh, accounting for 81.5% of total installations, up 11.0% MoM and up 13.4% YoY. From January to April, China's cumulative power battery installations were 187.2 GWh, up 1.6% YoY cumulatively . Among them, cumulative ternary battery installations were 37.4 GWh, accounting for 20.0% of total installations, up 8.9% YoY cumulatively; cumulative LFP battery installations were 149.8 GWh, accounting for 80.0% of total installations, down 0.1% YoY cumulatively. Leap Motor Continued to "Lead" Among New Forces in April, BYD's Overseas Sales Hit a Record High April sales/delivery data for new automaking forces were released. Leap Motor continued to "lead," delivering 71,387 units in April, up 73.9% YoY. Delivery momentum continued to surge, with back-end production running at full capacity simultaneously. Currently, Leap Motor's A10 factory capacity has exceeded 1,000 units/day. Starting from April, Leap Motor's intelligent features also entered a phase of large-scale popularization. Currently, urban navigation-assisted driving has been made available for experience across multiple Leap Motor car models, and in the future, nationwide urban NAP and parking-space-to-parking-space navigation assistance will be rolled out in batches. Leveraging its full-domain self-developed capabilities, Leap Motor has achieved full coverage of assisted driving from the 100,000-yuan-level A10 to the flagship D19, making smarter and safer advanced intelligent assisted driving no longer a privilege of the few, but an accessible part of everyday travel. Li Auto delivered a total of 34,085 new vehicles in April. As of April 30, 2026, Li Auto's cumulative historical deliveries reached 1,669,442 units. As of April 30, 2026, Li Auto had 511 retail centers nationwide, covering 160 cities, and 550 after-sales repair centers and authorized service centers, covering 223 cities. Li Auto had put into use 4,077 Li Auto supercharging stations nationwide, with 22,509 charging piles. XPeng Motors delivered 31,011 new vehicles in April. As of April, cumulative deliveries of the XPeng MONA M03 exceeded 250,000 units, ranking first among pure electric sedans in the 100,000-200,000 yuan segment for 19 consecutive months. As of April 30, XPeng's charging network covered over 430 cities, with over 3,550 cumulative self-operated charging stations, including over 3,000 self-operated ultra-fast charging stations. To ensure smooth travel during the Labour Day holiday, XPeng completed dedicated inspections and maintenance of charging stations along highways and at popular scenic areas. Xiaomi Auto delivered over 30,000 units in April. On May 6, Xiaomi Auto announced that the new-generation SU7 had received over 80,000 locked orders in just 48 days since its launch. The new-generation SU7 Standard Edition was priced at 219,900 yuan, the Pro Edition at 249,900 yuan, and the Max Edition at 303,900 yuan. NIO delivered 29,356 new vehicles in April, up 22.8% YoY. Among them, the NIO brand delivered 19,024 units; the ONVO brand delivered 5,352 units, up 21.6% YoY; and the firefly brand delivered 4,980 units. In the first four months of this year, NIO delivered a total of 112,821 vehicles, up 71.0% YoY. To date, NIO has cumulatively delivered 1,110,413 vehicles. In April 2026, the all-new NIO ES8 achieved 13,020 new vehicle deliveries. To date, the all-new ES8 has accumulated over 100,000 users and set the record for the fastest delivery of 100,000 units among high-end car models priced above 400,000 yuan in China. In addition, the all-new ES8 has been the sales champion among large SUVs and car models priced above 400,000 yuan for four consecutive months. BYD, China's leading EV maker, recorded auto sales of 321,123 units in April. Exports exceeded 130,000 units, hitting a new all-time high. Cumulative NEV sales surpassed 16.1 million units. On May 9, BYD and China Auto Rental (CAR Inc.) officially signed a Flash Charging China strategic cooperation agreement and a 100,000-unit vehicle procurement framework agreement in Shenzhen. Under the agreement, the two parties will conduct in-depth cooperation around the "Flash Charging China Strategy," deploying BYD flash charging pile facilities at eligible CAR Inc. stores nationwide to build a widely covered, efficient, and convenient charging service network, jointly enhancing user travel experiences. Meanwhile, the two parties signed a 100,000-unit vehicle procurement framework agreement, further consolidating BYD's core position in CAR Inc.'s NEV fleet and supporting its continued expansion of green transportation capacity. The CPCA stated that the current auto market is at a critical stage of smooth transition from "policy-driven" to "market-guided" and "product-driven." Although the market is under pressure in the short term, with multiple heavyweight new car models entering the market around the auto show period, supply-side efforts are expected to gradually drive demand-side recovery, and the overall auto market is expected to see a more robust rebound in Q2. In addition, CPCA Secretary General Cui Dongshu noted that the NEV penetration rate exceeded 60% in April, a "leapfrog" development compared to approximately 52% in March, with a key reason being the sharp decline in internal combustion engine vehicle demand, which in turn pushed up the NEV penetration rate. Recently, some automakers announced raises in optional intelligent driving features pricing, drawing market attention. In response, Cui Dongshu stated that China's auto market currently exhibits significant differentiation in automaker gross margins: high-end automakers maintain relatively high gross margin levels, with many models still sustaining gross margins above 20% supported by pricing, facing relatively small profitability pressure and having no substantive need to raise prices; low and mid-end automakers, however, face notable profitability pressure. Yet as industry competition continues to intensify and the overall market is in a state of volume contraction, broad-based price increases by automakers lack feasibility. Looking ahead to May, the CPCA stated that May this year has 19 working days, consistent with the 19 working days in May 2025. Auto market production and sales are expected to continue the prior gradual rebound trend. From the end-user pace and consumption perspective, the MoM recovery momentum of the May auto market is generally improving. The 2026 truck renewal subsidy standards remain unchanged, while passenger vehicle trade-in subsidies were reduced, and the impact of passenger vehicle sales losses is expected to diminish over time. Sales losses previously caused by the cooling of industry price wars and sales promotions falling short of expectations have been gradually absorbed. The Labour Day holiday combined with local auto shows activated car purchase demand, driving pre-holiday order locking and post-holiday concentrated deliveries, with monthly trends showing strength early and stability later. The surge in fuel prices is an exceptionally significant factor affecting consumption, bringing uncertainty to market sales. Currently, residents' income expectations remain cautious, wait-and-see sentiment toward car purchases persists, and coupled with tightening auto finance and higher credit thresholds, rigid demand is supported only by local subsidies and automaker concessions. China's consumption recovery is mild, with notable structural differentiation. Under the intertwined influence of multiple factors including international oil price fluctuations and intensive new product launches, these will dominate the May auto market performance. The Labour Day long holiday is a dividend driving MoM sales recovery, but consumption shortcomings are difficult to repair quickly, constraining YoY growth. High oil prices have reshaped car purchase preferences and accelerated the electrification transition, while the comprehensive new energy industry chain continues to empower export growth. The overall picture presents a weak recovery pattern of "MoM recovery, YoY pressure, domestic demand differentiation, exports leading, and continuously rising NEV penetration rate."

At the hosted by SMM, Ouyang Yichang, SMM secondary copper industry research analyst, shared insights on the topic of "Analysis of Japan's Secondary Copper Market." He noted that, according to SMM, Japan's copper scrap market is gradually transitioning toward a fiercely competitive "seller ecosystem." Trade models that rely solely on spot cargo procurement are increasingly exposed to the risk of supply disruptions. To secure long-term resource supply, ex-China purchasing enterprises need to move beyond the traditional spot trading mindset and establish structural partnerships through deep-binding approaches such as signing long-term contracts and equity cooperation, in order to adapt to the persistently tight market landscape. Global Positioning of Japan's Copper Scrap Market Global Positioning of Japan's Copper Scrap Market Key Drivers Behind Japan's Leading Position in Asia 1 Precision Sorting: Exceptional classification accuracy ensures high-quality scrap output. 2 Well-Established Infrastructure: A mature "urban mine" system and advanced logistics provide a highly reliable supply foundation. 3 Strategic Geographical Advantage: Proximity to China (accelerating capital turnover), while serving as a key trans-Pacific logistics hub connecting the Americas and Asia. 4 Favorable Trade and Tax Policies: Zero export tariffs and transparent regulations ensure seamless global operations. 5 Commercial Reliability: High standards of packaging and business ethics minimize quality claims. Japan's Average Unit Price of Copper Scrap Significantly Leads the Top Five Global Exporters In 2025, Japan and Thailand each accounted for approximately 7% of global copper scrap exports. However, Japan commanded the highest average export price among major peers ($8,112/mt), thanks to a substantial quality premium. This price spread revealed fundamental differences in product mix. Thailand primarily served as a processing hub, with limited high-grade copper scrap output domestically. In contrast, Japan was organically driven by its mature "urban mine" ecosystem, consistently producing high-purity, high-grade materials. Flow of Japan's Copper Scrap Flow of Japan's Copper Scrap Rising Trade Volume and Shrinking Net Exports: A Shift Toward Domestic Retention Smelters Drove Copper Scrap Consumption Growth While Downstream Processing Enterprises Saw Declining Usage According to SMM, compared with 2021, processing enterprises' copper scrap usage declined by 8% in 2025. Processing enterprises: Weak downstream demand (automotive, construction) and fierce global competition for high-quality copper scrap severely squeezed domestic processing enterprises, resulting in a sustained 8% decline in their absolute usage. Smelters: Tightened environmental protection and export policies implemented since 2023 restricted the outflow of copper scrap, significantly accelerating this structural "reflux" toward smelters. Combined with the plunge in TC/RC, Japanese smelters were forced to rely on these raw materials to maintain production. Consequently, the share of copper scrap consumed by the smelting segment has maintained an overall upward trend in recent years. Japan's overall scrap supply is contracting; despite robust growth in domestic consumption, the structural decline in net exports is the primary driver. Since the 2021 peak, Japan's total apparent supply of copper scrap has been on an overall downward trend. This indicates structural tightening in domestic scrap generation and social recovery rates, with increasingly scarce available resources. Despite the overall supply contraction, domestic apparent consumption demonstrated strong resilience, as Japanese smelters actively secured local raw materials to maintain production amid plunging TC. This robust local demand is significantly squeezing exports. Net exports have consequently declined structurally to low levels. Japan is shifting from a "resource overflow" model to an "internal absorption" model, which will severely exacerbate raw material shortages for Southeast Asian and Chinese buyers. Bare bright copper payable indicator stays high: supply tightness and China's tax-driven demand outweigh the impact of recent copper price rebound Since early 2026, market copper prices have risen steadily overall; in March, copper prices experienced a periodic pullback, and copper scrap sellers held prices firm with strong willingness to defend price floors, directly driving the bare bright copper payable indicator passively higher. Entering April, futures copper prices rebounded and stabilized at highs, but the copper scrap payment ratio deviated from conventional pricing logic and did not pull back accordingly, remaining firmly in the 98.5%-99.0% range. The core supporting logic lies in: continued tightening of domestic tax regulation, with China's downstream processing enterprises increasingly relying on imported copper scrap to obtain compliant input tax deductions, forming rigid procurement demand; coupled with tight spot copper scrap supply, the dual support of supply and demand underpins the copper scrap payment ratio to stay high. Japan's Scrap Policies Japan's Scrap Policies Regulatory Shift: Building an "Invisible Wall" Although Japan has not explicitly imposed export bans, it strengthens its domestic closed-loop system through a strategic policy combination. For global buyers, this signals a structural shift in the Japanese market going forward: intensified competition, soaring procurement costs, and increasing difficulty in accessing high-quality scrap. Regulatory maturity and standardized transparency are the primary drivers of the "Japan premium." Policy Lag vs. Market Reality: Although the EU Waste Shipment Regulation and potential US export restrictions have not yet been formally enacted, the market has already priced in expectations of future supply contraction, compelling downstream buyers to proactively pivot toward trade hubs with higher compliance and transparency. "Reliability Premium" Logic Emerges: As a pioneer in industry compliance and market transparency, Japan can effectively hedge against risks prevalent in other regions, such as insufficient information transparency and origin rerouting, providing the market with an important safe-haven and pricing anchor function. Outlook and Forecast Strategic Outlook and Forecast Driven by aggressive development targets at both enterprise and national levels, scrap consumption by domestic smelters in Japan is set to experience significant structural growth. According to SMM, the climb in scrap consumption by Japanese smelters is not a short-term cyclical response triggered by declining mine TCs, but rather a fundamental structural transformation underpinned by strong capital strength and long-term commitment. As 2030 ESG-related targets continue to materialize, the trend of retaining domestic scrap for internal use in Japan will deepen further, structurally tightening global circulating scrap supply over the long term and continuously compressing the available sourcing volume for ex-China buyers. Response Logic for the "New Normal" in Japan's Copper Scrap Market Volume and Flow Direction: Steady Decline Net exports of copper scrap will not plunge to zero abruptly, but rather exhibit a sustained structural decline trend. As domestically subsidized capacity comes fully online, exports of high-grade secondary copper such as bare bright copper and No.1 copper will enter a steady contraction trajectory. Pricing Logic: The traditional medium and long-term linkage of "rising copper prices, declining scrap payment ratios" has been structurally reshaped. Under the dual effects of persistently tight copper concentrates supply and China's rigid tax-driven procurement demand providing a floor, the payment ratio for Japan's high-quality copper scrap is expected to establish a long-term upward baseline. Strategic Pivot: Constrained by the upper limit of domestic secondary copper output and tight labor supply, Japanese recycling industry alliances will accelerate their expansion into markets outside China. Japanese enterprises will invest in overseas joint venture projects to solidify downstream processing capacity deployment while maintaining Japanese-led control over raw material supply chains. According to SMM analysis, the current Japanese copper scrap market is gradually transitioning toward a fiercely competitive "seller ecosystem." Trade models that rely solely on spot purchases are increasingly exposed to the risk of supply disruptions. To secure long-term resource supply, ex-China purchasing enterprises need to move beyond the traditional spot trading mindset and establish structural partnerships through deep-binding approaches such as signing long-term contracts and equity cooperation, thereby adapting to the persistently tight market landscape.

[JPMorgan: Overall Auto Market Recovery Remains Weak, BYD's Full-Year Sales Still Expected to Grow Against the Trend] JPMorgan stated that despite cooling demand in the overall EV market, BYD is expected to achieve positive sales growth for the full year, benefiting from improved expectations in the Chinese market and aggressive global expansion. In a research report released after post-holiday communication and survey with BYD's management, the investment bank's analysts noted that BYD expects domestic sales to reach 3.5 million to 4 million units this year. This performance guidance implies that its China domestic market growth could reach up to 13%, far exceeding market analysts' previous widespread expectations of flat sales or even a slight decline.

On May 9, BYD signed a strategic cooperation agreement for Flash Charging China with CAR Inc., along with a framework agreement for the procurement of 100,000 vehicles. According to the agreement, BYD and CAR Inc. will conduct in-depth cooperation around the "Flash Charging China Strategy," planning to install BYD flash charging piles at eligible CAR Inc. service locations nationwide. This will establish an extensive, efficient, and convenient charging service network, jointly enhancing the user travel experience. At the same time, the framework agreement for the procurement of 100,000 vehicles signed by the two parties will further consolidate BYD's core position in the new energy vehicle fleet of CAR Inc. and assist CAR Inc. in continuously expanding its scale of green mobility capacity.

According to foreign media reports, Oman plans to launch three major low-carbon aluminum projects within the Duqm Special Economic Zone (SEZAD). The most notable one is an electrolytic aluminum project invested by CMOC Group Limited. With a total investment of approximately 2.4 billion Omani Rials, the project will be built with an annual electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 530,000 tonnes, supported by downstream deep-processing facilities planned to reach an annual capacity of 620,000 tonnes of aluminum billets and pre-cast slabs.

The Palestine Monetary Authority (PMA) has launched the 'Shamsi Palestine' program with an initial $25 million pool—$20M from PMA and $5M from donor nations Austria, Finland, and Norway. This integrated model provides loans and grants to local authorities for solar projects with repayment terms of up to 7 years. Supported by the UNDP, the initiative aims to reduce energy costs, strengthen public finances, and enhance national energy security by decreasing reliance on imported power.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $13,522.5/mt, fluctuated downward to $13,484.5/mt in early trading, then experienced wild swings reaching a high of $13,583/mt, before fluctuating downward to finally close at $13,535.5/mt, up 1.59%, with trading volume at 29,500 lots and open interest at 271,000 lots, down 1,154 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears cutting positions. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 104,500 yuan/mt, rose to 104,580 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward to 103,690 yuan/mt, moved sideways near the end of the session to finally close at 104,200 yuan/mt, up 0.53%, with trading volume at 50,000 lots and open interest at 208,000 lots, down 1,584 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears cutting positions.

SMM May 9 News: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic market saw base metals mostly decline. SHFE copper rose 0.53%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.16%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. SHFE zinc fell 1.19%. SHFE tin fell 1.13%. SHFE nickel fell 0.67%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.37%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.24%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore was flat at 816.5 yuan/mt, stainless steel fell 1.05%, rebar edged up slightly, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.14%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.39%, and coke fell 0.43%. Last Friday's overnight overseas metals showed mixed performance among LME base metals. LME copper rose 1.59%. LME aluminum rose 0.34%, and LME lead was flat at $1,977.5/mt. LME zinc fell 0.17%. LME tin fell 1.26%. LME nickel fell 0.89%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.27%, posting a weekly gain of 1.71%; COMEX silver rose 0.82%, gaining 5.76% for the week. Last Friday's overnight SHFE gold most-traded contract fell 0.21%, with a weekly gain of 3.24%; SHFE silver most-traded contract rose 0.09%, with SHFE silver gaining 11.4% for the week. As of 8:39 AM on May 9, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Li Qiang Chaired State Council Executive Meeting: Advancing Local Government Debt Risk Resolution and Strengthening Full-Chain Management of Mineral Resources] State Council Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting on May 9, studying and implementing the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speeches on the current economic situation and economic work, as well as at the symposium on strengthening basic research. The meeting noted that efforts should be made to align thinking and actions with the CPC Central Committee's scientific assessment of the situation, further bolster confidence, seize opportunities amid changes, drive development through overcoming challenges, consolidate and expand the momentum of steady and positive economic growth, and strive for a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Macro policies should focus on being fully and effectively utilized, maintaining proactive implementation, and continuously improving execution efficiency. Strengthening the domestic economic circulation should seek breakthroughs in coordinated supply-demand alignment and integrated upgrading, implementing and improving measures to expand capacity and enhance quality in the service sector, and strengthening the planning and construction of water networks, new-type power grids, computing power networks, next-generation communication networks, urban underground pipeline networks, and logistics networks . Social welfare efforts should focus more on stabilizing employment and ensuring basic needs, and doing well in education, healthcare, childcare, agriculture, rural areas, and farmers. Greater efforts and more concrete measures should be taken to strengthen basic research, placing basic research high on the agenda. In light of the country's urgent needs and long-term demands, the main directions and key areas of focus should be identified, investment should be increased through multiple measures, and efforts should be made to foster a sound research ecosystem. Risks and challenges should be addressed effectively, with continued efforts to defuse risks in areas such as real estate, local government debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions. Safety production responsibilities of all parties should be closely monitored and enforced to resolutely prevent major and serious accidents. ( Xinhua News Agency ) [General Administration of Customs: In the first 4 months, China's goods trade imports and exports grew 14.9%, with electromechanical product exports up 17.6%] According to customs statistics, in the first 4 months of 2026, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 16.23 trillion yuan, up 14.9% YoY (the same hereinafter). Of this, exports totaled 9.33 trillion yuan, up 11.3%; imports totaled 6.9 trillion yuan, up 20%. In April, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 4.38 trillion yuan, up 14.2%. Of this, exports totaled 2.48 trillion yuan, up 9.8%; imports totaled 1.9 trillion yuan, up 20.6%. [Four departments: Exploring direct connection of nuclear power, hydrogen energy and other energy sources to supply computing facilities, and continuously increasing the share of green electricity in computing facilities] The Plan proposes enhancing the diversified power supply capacity of computing facilities. Based on actual conditions such as the scale of computing facility grid connections, power grid voltage levels, power grid new energy penetration rates, power quality requirements, and computing facility business types, standards for energy supply planning and construction of computing facilities are to be established and improved. The use of nuclear power, hydrogen energy, and other energy sources to supply computing facilities through direct connections is to be explored. Computing facilities are encouraged to deploy grid-forming ESS to enhance power supply stability and active support capability for the power system. [Three departments issue the Implementation Opinions on Standardized Application and Innovative Development of AI Agents] The Cyberspace Administration of China, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the Implementation Opinions on Standardized Application and Innovative Development of AI Agents. The Implementation Opinions specify that the development of AI agents should adhere to the basic principles of safety and controllability, standardization and orderliness, innovation-driven development, and application-led guidance, and put forward measures in four areas: first, consolidating the development foundation by improving the technology base and establishing standards and protocols; second, safeguarding the security baseline by defining product guidelines, preventing security risks, improving the governance system, and strengthening industry self-discipline; third, strengthening application-led guidance by proposing 19 typical application scenarios in areas such as scientific research, industrial development, consumption stimulation, people's well-being, and social governance. Fourth, building an innovative ecosystem, promoting industrial cooperation, and strengthening application promotion. [ China's April Warehousing Index Remained in Expansion Territory, with the Warehousing Industry Continuing a Stable and Positive Trend ] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the April China Warehousing Index today (May 9). The index continued to stay in expansion territory, with the warehousing industry maintaining a stable and positive trend. The April China Warehousing Index was 51%, remaining in expansion territory for two consecutive months. In terms of sub-indices, the new orders index, facility utilization rate index, and end-of-period inventory index remained in expansion territory, while the average inventory turnover index maintained a relatively high level, indicating steady growth in warehousing business demand, good cargo turnover efficiency, and smooth supply chain connectivity. By category, the peak production and construction season drove a rebound in warehousing demand for bulk commodities such as chemicals, coal, and machinery equipment, while Labour Day holiday stockpiling boosted notable growth in warehousing demand for consumer goods such as food, home appliances, and agricultural by-products. In terms of market expectations, the April business activity expectations index was 55.1%, remaining at a relatively high level, reflecting enterprises' continued optimism. Overall, the warehousing industry operated steadily in April, market vitality continued to be released, and Q2 got off to a good start. (CCTV) [ Shanghai Shipping Exchange: Geopolitical Situation Stabilizing, Freight Rates Rising on Most Routes ] The Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) weekly report stated that the current military conflict in the Middle East continued to maintain a ceasefire, with the geopolitical situation relatively stable, though the future situation still faced significant uncertainty. This week, China's export container shipping market remained stable, with freight rates on most routes edging up, driving the composite index higher. On May 8, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index stood at 1954.21 points, up 2.2% from the previous period. US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index fell 0.43% to 97.86. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index declined for two consecutive weeks, down 0.36% for the week. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that April non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000, marking the first consecutive growth in nearly a year and the largest two-month gain since 2024, far exceeding the Bloomberg survey median economist forecast of 65,000. March data was also revised up to 185,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, in line with expectations. (Wallstreetcn) "US Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: An increasing number of sell-side institutions and US Fed watchers are removing or delaying interest rate cut expectations from their outlooks, including several forecasters who made adjustments following the release of the April non-farm payrolls data. Currently, half of the respondents believe there will be no interest rate cut this year (given the inertial nature of such forecasts, this camp is likely to continue growing). In addition, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that all rate options are currently on the table, not just rate cuts. At the end of April, the US Fed kept rates unchanged, with three officials opposing language in the statement that hinted the next move could be a rate cut, arguing that the possibility of a rate hike should be preserved. Goolsbee's remarks reflected a shift among US Fed policymakers — moving away from considering near-term rate cuts, primarily because the energy price shock triggered by the Iran war pushed up inflation. He reiterated that both rate cuts and rate hikes are on the table and expressed anxiety about inflation, noting that price pressures exist beyond the energy shock. (Jin10 Data) As consumers worried about the impact of inflation on personal finances and buying conditions, US consumer confidence fell to a new all-time low in recent weeks. University of Michigan data showed that the preliminary May consumer sentiment index fell from 49.8 in April to 48.2. Consumers expected prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.5% over the next year, a slight pullback MoM; longer-term inflation expectations for the next 5 to 10 years stood at 3.4%. As Americans grew anxious about overall living costs, compounded by a sharp rise in gasoline prices, consumer confidence remained subdued. American Automobile Association (AAA) data showed that the average US gasoline price this week surpassed $4.50 per gallon for the first time since July 2022, having risen more than 50% since the outbreak of the Iran war. Survey director Joanne Hsu stated: "About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices, and about 30% mentioned tariff issues. Overall, consumers still feel the impact of cost pressure, with the primary driver being surging prices at the pump." The preliminary May current conditions index fell to 47.8, a record low; the expectations index rebounded for the first time since January. Consumers' assessment of their current financial situation dropped to the lowest level since 2009, and the buying conditions indicator also fell to a five-month low. (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include China April CPI YoY, China April PPI YoY, US April existing home sales annualized, Germany April CPI MoM final, Germany May ZEW economic sentiment index, Eurozone May ZEW economic sentiment index, US April NFIB small business confidence index, US ADP employment weekly change for the week ending April 25, US April non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, US April seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US April seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US April non-seasonally adjusted core CPI YoY, Japan March trade balance, France Q1 ILO unemployment rate, France April CPI MoM final, Eurozone Q1 GDP YoY revised, Eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final, Eurozone March industrial output MoM, US April PPI YoY, US April PPI MoM, UK Q1 GDP YoY preliminary, UK March three-month GDP MoM, UK March manufacturing output MoM, Canada March wholesale sales MoM, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9, US April retail sales MoM, US April import price index MoM, US May New York Fed manufacturing index, US April industrial output MoM, and China April total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), among others. In addition, other events to watch this week included: US Treasury Secretary Bessent's visit to Japan to meet with the Japanese Prime Minister, the Bank of Japan Governor, and the Finance Minister; the Bank of Japan's release of the Summary of Opinions from its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a panel discussion on monetary policy; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee attending a Q&A session hosted by a local chamber of commerce; 2028 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins delivering a speech at the Boston Economic Club; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in a discussion hosted by a local chamber of commerce; the Bank of Canada releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes; 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan participating in a dialogue on the energy sector; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivering opening remarks at an online discussion on central bank independence; US Fed Governor Barr delivering a speech; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a discussion; and the National Energy Administration releasing national electricity consumption data around the 15th of the month. Crude oil: Last Friday overnight, both oil futures moved sideways, with WTI down 0.14% and Brent up 0.19%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 7.12% for the week, while Brent fell 7.32%. Middle East conflicts resurfaced, and market concerns over the fragility of ceasefire agreements persisted. According to CMG reporters on May 8, ship-tracking data showed that as of the morning of May 8 local time, no large vessels had transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. This reportedly marked the second consecutive day since May 7 with no large commercial ships passing through the strait. (CCTV) US energy services company Baker Hughes stated in its closely watched report that US energy enterprises increased oil and natural gas rig counts for the third consecutive week, marking the first three-week streak of increases since early February. Data showed that for the week ending May 8, the total US oil and natural gas rig count—a leading indicator of future production—increased by 1 to 548, the highest since early April. (Webstock Inc.) According to foreign media reports, sources said that since shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, enterprises such as Saudi Aramco's trading arm (Aramco Trading) and UAE national oil company Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) had continued to transport crude oil cargoes through the strait. Although current shipment volumes represented only a fraction of what flowed before Iran closed this oil route nearly 10 weeks ago, the actions of both companies served as a reminder to the market that some supply could still reach global markets. According to sources, Adnoc was among the first companies to attempt shipping crude oil, fuel, and natural gas cargoes out through the strait. The company supplied Upper Zakum crude to clients, a grade typically loaded at Zirku Island, but in this case delivered in Fujairah waters outside the Persian Gulf. According to Vortexa data, at the end of April, a very large crude carrier (VLCC) loaded with Abu Dhabi crude turned off its transponder and sailed out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler data showed that as of Thursday, another VLCC, Fujairah Energy, remained anchored in waters near Abu Dhabi, carrying half a cargo of crude obtained from Zirku Island via ship-to-ship transfer. A charter agreement indicated that the vessel had been temporarily chartered by Adnoc, with plans to load crude between May 15 and 17 for delivery to Asia. (Jin10 Data) Citi stated that the current base case scenario projects Brent crude oil prices to average $110 in Q2 2026, then decline to $95 in Q3 and $80 in Q4. Fitch expects Brent crude prices to remain at $100–110 per barrel during the Strait of Hormuz blockade from May to July, before pulling back to $70 per barrel by September. Additionally, JPMorgan analysts said US gasoline prices "could very well" rise to $5 per gallon, as refineries are prioritizing jet fuel production at the expense of other products. The analyst team noted in a Friday report that in Asia, the region currently hardest hit by the energy crisis, the price shock triggered by the Iran war is transmitting significantly faster through refined product markets such as jet fuel and diesel than through the crude oil market. If refinery operations continue to be constrained by limited crude supply, fuel prices could become "the primary transmission channel for demand destruction." "In this scenario, even if refined product crack spreads widen significantly, crude prices could still stabilize around $100 per barrel. At that point, the next phase of the shock would look less like a traditional crude oil price spike and more like a refining and end-user fuel supply crisis." The product most visibly impacted currently is jet fuel, which is prompting refineries to maximize jet fuel output as much as possible, typically at the cost of reduced diesel production. The knock-on effects have also spread to gasoline production. Analysts said: "This perhaps explains why US gasoline prices have already risen to $4.55 per gallon, and why the risk of gasoline prices reaching $5 can no longer be ignored." (Jin10 Data) Recommended Reading:

On May 9, recent market reports indicated that regulatory authorities had taken notice of widespread complaints triggered by automakers locking battery capacity. Eight automakers were reportedly summoned for regulatory talks, three were placed under investigation for violations, and two withdrew controversial upgrade packages and pledged to restore performance. Subsequently, artificial intelligence (AI)-related information circulating online listed the names of eight automakers. When seeking confirmation today from BYD, Tesla, XPeng, Li Auto, NIO, Seres AITO, Geely Zeekr, and GAC Aion, BYD, Tesla, XPeng, Li Auto, and GAC Aion explicitly denied the claims.

After the holiday, ferrous metals opened higher, but subsequent trends diverged—steel products and iron ore fluctuated at highs, while coke surged before pulling back. The strong rally during the week was mainly driven by disturbances outside China. During the holiday, the US-Iran standoff escalated with widening negotiation gaps, pushing raw materials to lead the gains in ferrous metals. Combined with capital inflows after the holiday, this provided a clear upward drive for prices. In the latter half of the week, market rumors suggested that Iran and the US had reached a consensus on easing the US naval blockade in exchange for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and bears increased their positions in coke. Data on the five major steel products were released, showing weakness in both supply and demand, with inventory not accumulating after the holiday. On the spot market side, traders had a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and purchases were made in both futures and spot cargo at low price levels...