[SMM Aluminum Express News] The future of Rio Tinto’s Bell Bay aluminum smelter in Tasmania remains uncertain as negotiations over a new 10-year electricity agreement with Hydro Tasmania face an estimated A$60 million annual pricing gap. Tasmania Energy Minister Nick Duigan said the difference is between the power price Rio Tinto says it needs to keep the smelter viable and the lowest price Hydro Tasmania can commercially offer. The current power agreement expires on 31 December 2026, putting more than 550 direct jobs at risk if a new arrangement cannot be reached. The Tasmanian government is calling for federal support to help bridge the gap, while uncertainty has emerged over Bell Bay’s access to Australia’s A$2 billion Green Aluminium Production Credit scheme. The federal government had previously indicated Bell Bay would be eligible, but recent comments suggested the credits are primarily intended for smelters transitioning from fossil-fuel power to renewables, whereas Bell Bay already operates on hydroelectricity. Hydro Tasmania said it has pushed its offer as low as commercially sustainable and indicated government support may be required to close the remaining gap.

SMM News, August 11: Metal market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.61%, and SHFE aluminum rose 0.81%. SHFE lead rose 0.86%. SHFE zinc rose 0.47%. SHFE tin fell 0.29%, and SHFE nickel fell 0.59%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 0.38%, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.78%, the most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 0.36%, the most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.76%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.46%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 1.47%, rebar edged up, hot-rolled coil fell 0.12%, and stainless steel fell 0.82%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.47%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.45%. As for overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.48%, LME aluminum, LME lead, and LME zinc rose within 0.2%. LME tin fell 0.12%, and LME nickel fell 0.32%. Precious metals: as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 1.37%, and COMEX silver rose 1.12%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 1.88%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures continued its rally for the fifth consecutive trading day, rising 3.08%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.59%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 1.92%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping freight futures contract fell 6.11% to 1,536.5 points. As of 11:40 on August 11, midday futures market overview: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: In North China, spot #1 copper cathode prices against the front-month contract averaged a discount of 280 yuan/mt to 220 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 255 yuan/mt, narrowing by 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 108,300 yuan/mt, up 640 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front Domestic: [The PBOC’s reverse repo operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 46.5 billion yuan] The PBOC did not conduct any reverse repo operations today, as 46.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 46.5 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data APP) [China Index Academy: Nationwide Foreclosed Housing Transactions Up Over 40% YoY in Jan-Jul] Data from the China Index Academy showed that 245,000 foreclosed residential properties were listed for auction nationwide from January to July, up 23.1% YoY; 89,000 units were sold, up 42.7% YoY; the clearance rate was 36.2%, up 4.97 percentage points from the previous year; total transaction value reached 96.975 billion yuan, up 21.04% YoY. From January to July, the average transaction price of foreclosed residential properties was 8,081 yuan per square meter, a YoY decrease of 9.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) In the dollar segment: As of 11:40, the US dollar index fell 0.03% to 99.78. Cleveland Fed President Hammack stated that inflation has yet to return to its target level, and the US Fed may need to implement multiple rate hikes. She said a single 25-basis-point hike “would not have much impact on the economy,” but she was reluctant to predict the specific number of hikes or the terminal rate level. Hammack believes the current 3.50%–3.75% rate range has not placed significant restraint on the economy, and enterprises have not scaled back growth investments due to high rates, so “now is the time to act.” She noted that the longer the wait, the harder it will be to bring inflation back to 2%. Hammack also emphasized that the labor market currently shows no clear issues, and July employment data will not shift her focus on inflation. She argued that markets can only assist the Fed, not substitute for Fed action. Hammack dissented at the Fed’s July meeting, preferring a 25-basis-point hike over keeping rates unchanged. According to CME FedWatch, for the September meeting, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 48.8%, and a cumulative 25bp hike 51.2%. For October, the probabilities were 34.7% (no change), 50.5% (cumulative 25bp), and 14.7% (cumulative 50bp). (Jin10 Data APP) US President Trump said on Monday that he has had only one “brief” conversation with Fed Chairman Warsh since the latter took office, denying reports of frequent communications. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said last week that the two “frequently discuss economic issues,” but other sources said the calls are irregular and not frequent. Previous reports indicated that Trump has communicated with Warsh multiple times since Warsh was confirmed as Fed Chairman in May, with Trump asking about Warsh’s economic outlook and views. Trump reiterated his desire for lower interest rates but said he “100% supports” Warsh and stressed that Fed policy is set jointly by the Board of Governors. (Jin10 Data APP) In other currencies: TD Securities expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep its interest rate unchanged at 4.35%, a baseline scenario broadly in line with market consensus and OIS pricing, which shows the probability of a hike today is near zero. This means the rate decision itself carries very limited risk of surprising the AUD or rates market. A more meaningful signal may come from the Monetary Policy Statement released alongside the rate decision. TD Securities expects that, despite the trimmed mean CPI data coming in weaker than expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia will resist sharply lowering its inflation forecasts, citing elevated oil prices as a persistent upside risk to the inflation outlook. The combination of "confirming a hold" and "cautious, rather than dovish, forecast revisions" implies that the market reaction will be relatively mild. Any surprise is more likely to come from the tone of the forecast language than from the rate decision itself. (Jin10 Data APP) According to Jiji Press, citing sources familiar with the matter, after raising rates in June, the Bank of Japan may consider raising rates again at its next policy meeting on September 17-18 to address rising inflation risks. Driven by the rapid growth in AI-related demand, a significant depreciation of the yen, and a rise in crude oil prices, prices in Japan may rise further. Previously, many financial market participants had expected the BOJ to raise rates roughly every six months. However, according to the summary of opinions from the meeting released on Monday, at the BOJ's latest policy meeting held on July 30-31, some policy board members had already indicated that the pace of rate hikes should be accelerated. One member said, "The pace of policy rate hikes may exceed market expectations," while another stated that the BOJ needed to "accelerate the pace of adjusting monetary easing." (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of China's July M2 money supply annual rate (TBD), the US July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the US weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending July 25, the US July existing home sales annualized rate, and the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision for the August 11 meeting, among other data. In addition, the RBA will publish its rate decision and monetary policy statement, and RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil: As of 11:40, both crude oil benchmarks edged up, with WTI up 0.07% and Brent up 0.06%. The renewed uncertainty over the US-Iran negotiations supported oil prices. Trump openly criticized the war reparations demand put forward by Iran during the negotiations, rapidly cooling the market's previously optimistic expectations for a quick deal and the reopening of strategic waterways. Wall Street Insights mentioned, citing CCTV, that US President Trump posted on social media on August 10 local time, saying that he had noticed Iran was demanding compensation for losses suffered in the military conflicts of the past five months. Trump said: "I similarly demand compensation from Iran, and I have instructed my representatives to explicitly include this demand in all future negotiations."On the same day, Iran continued to release signals of strengthening its security and political system. It is worth noting that last week, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) accelerated its decline again, falling to its lowest level since 1983 and approaching the widely recognized operational floor of 250 million barrels. If the current weekly drawdown rate persists, the SPR will exhaust its buffer capacity within weeks. (Wall Street Insights) Donald Trump extended the Jones Act waiver allowing foreign vessels to transport oil and other goods within the US by 90 days, but imposed new restrictions. Due to the US-Iran conflict disrupting crude oil flows and driving up fuel costs, Trump maintained the related waiver while narrowing its scope. The new waiver will focus on energy transportation, including gasoline, jet fuel, crude oil, naphtha, liquefied natural gas, soybean oil, and fertilizers. Going forward, before deciding whether to grant a waiver for an individual voyage, the Pentagon will need to consult with the US Maritime Administration. The White House stated that the waiver helps ensure continued access to critical resources for the US military and essential industries, and increases domestic transportation of products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. However, US shipbuilders and some members of Congress believe that the waiver undermines the Jones Act's protection of the domestic shipping industry. (Jinshi Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Recently, Yihuatong's independently developed "An Online Activation Method and Device for a Fuel Cell System" passed the review of the Australian Intellectual Property Office and officially obtained an Australian standard patent grant, with the patent number AU 2022350248. This achievement is the first Australian invention patent obtained by the company in the core technology field of fuel cells, indicating that its relevant innovative technology has further gained recognition from authoritative institutions outside China. The patent entered the Australian national phase through the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT) international application system. After completing international search, patentability assessment, and local examination procedures, it was ultimately granted. The related technology is a core achievement formed by Yihuatong's R&D team through three years of continuous research and development, primarily aimed at proposing solutions to issues such as long activation times for fuel cells and performance degradation and reduced service life caused by impurities. According to reports, this technology can improve the activation efficiency of fuel cell systems and enhance product operational stability. Currently, related results have been applied to fuel cell commercial vehicles in Australia and the Brisbane distributed generation project, further verifying the technology's application capability in real-world scenarios. As a technology enterprise in the hydrogen energy field, Yihuatong continuously promotes independent R&D of core technologies and global intellectual property layout, and focuses on application scenarios such as transportation, energy storage, and comprehensive carbon neutrality to improve the green technology system across the entire chain of "production, storage, and utilization." The company has also built a multidisciplinary R&D team covering directions such as hydrogen production, energy storage, and fuel cells, as well as innovation platforms including the Beijing Engineering Technology Research Center, Beijing Key Laboratory, and Beijing Enterprise Technology Center. As of the end of June 2026, Yihuatong had cumulatively obtained over 1,200 granted patents, including over 480 invention patents. These patents cover fields such as fuel cell system design, control strategies, and structural design, and extend to technology directions like energy storage scheduling, energy balancing, and thermal safety, further improving the company's independent intellectual property system.

SMM August 11: Metals market: Overnight, most base metals on both domestic and overseas markets rose, with only LME nickel, SHFE tin, and SHFE nickel falling; SHFE tin fell 0.46%, SHFE nickel fell 0.42%, and LME nickel fell 0.15%. LME aluminum, LME zinc, and LME tin all gained over 1%, with LME aluminum up 1.99%, LME zinc up 1.01%, and LME tin up 1.08%, while the rest of the metals rose within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 0.59%, and cast aluminum main contract rose 0.28%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell, with iron ore up 0.7%, stainless steel down 0.62%, and hot-rolled coil and rebar both down around 0.2%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal rose 1.14% and coke fell 0.11%. Overnight, in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 1.11% and COMEX silver jumped 3.75%. On the domestic market, SHFE gold rose 0.66% and SHFE silver gained 1.89%. As of 6:43 AM, August 11, overnight closing prices: Macro Front Domestic: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): July CPI up 0.5% YoY, PPI up 3.5% YoY] NBS data showed: In July, affected by international imported factors, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% MoM and rose 0.5% YoY. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.3% MoM and 0.9% YoY, with the overall CPI maintaining a mild increase. Domestic demand in some sectors increased, but affected by imported and seasonal factors, the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.7% MoM and rose 3.5% YoY, with the growth slowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. In July 2026, the national PPI rose 3.5% YoY, down 0.7% MoM. The purchasing price index of industrial producers rose 5.5% YoY, down 1.0% MoM. From January to July on average, the PPI rose 1.8% from a year earlier, and the purchasing price index of industrial producers rose 2.8%. NBS chief statistician Dong Lijuan interpreted the July CPI and PPI data. US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.21% to 99.81, and markets now look to Wednesday's July CPI report. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said inflation has yet to return to target and the Fed may need to raise rates multiple times. She said a single 25bp rate hike "would not have much impact on the economy," but she was reluctant to prejudge the exact number of hikes or the terminal rate. Hammack believed the current 3.50%-3.75% rate range had not exerted significant restraint on the economy, and firms were not yet cutting growth investment due to high rates, so "it's time to act." She said the longer they wait, the harder it will be to get inflation back to 2%. Hammack also stressed that the job market had no obvious issues and the July employment data would not change her focus on inflation. She argued that markets can only assist the Fed, not replace the Fed in taking action. At the Fed's July meeting, Hammack dissented against holding rates steady, preferring a 25bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability that the Fed will hold rates unchanged in September is 48.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 51.2%. For October, the probability of holding rates steady is 34.7%, that of a cumulative 25bp hike is 50.5%, and that of a cumulative 50bp hike is 14.7%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today will see the release of China's July M2 money supply YoY (TBD), the US July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the US ADP employment change for the week ended July 25, US July existing home sales annualized, and the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision on August 11, among others. In addition, the RBA will release its rate decision and monetary policy statement, and RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil: Overnight, oil prices surged on both sides of the Atlantic, with WTI up 5.27% and Brent up 5.18%. In news, Iran's Foreign Ministry reiterated that the US naval blockade against Iran is an act of aggression against Iran. (Jin10 Data APP) The key backdrop to Monday's oil rally was shaken market expectations for a return to normal shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Reports said Iran claimed its agreement with Oman on a new shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz had entered its final stage, but Iran also raised other conditions, leaving uncertainty over when normal commercial shipping would resume. Analysts said traders would not fully unwind the geopolitical risk premium priced into oil prices until they see "verifiable evidence" such as actual tanker transits or a formal deal. Reports pointed out that Iran had made demands including a US military withdrawal, sanctions relief, and war reparations for the reopening of Hormuz, leading the market to reassess the likelihood of a near-term return to normal shipping. This shifted the trading logic in the oil market. (Wall Street News) Additionally, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) hit a record low again last week, falling below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983. Data from the US Department of Energy (DOE) showed that for the week ended August 7, the US SPR fell by about 6.1 million barrels to 298.3 million barrels, not only breaching the 300-million-barrel mark but also setting a new low since 1983, continuing to approach the record low around 270 million barrels set in April 1982. This drawdown occurred against the backdrop of continued SPR releases by the US in recent years. The US released large volumes from the SPR in 2022 amid energy supply concerns triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and inventories have since stayed near historical lows. Although refilling began in recent years, the pace has not been enough to reverse the previous massive drawdown. Therefore, the significance of the current inventory level lies not merely in the loss of a few million barrels, but in the shrinking policy buffer that US strategic oil reserves can provide against future supply shocks. (Wall Street News)

Industrial action at BHP’s Port Hedland iron ore operations in Western Australia expanded further on August 9, with around 100 additional workers joining a 24-hour stoppage, bringing the total number of participating workers to about 150. The action followed a 24-hour ship-loading halt on August 8. Port Hedland is the world’s largest iron ore export hub, while BHP ships around US$80 million worth of iron ore through the port each day, increasing concerns over potential short-term disruptions to seaborne iron ore supply. However, BHP said vessels continued to be loaded during the strike, while rival miners Fortescue and Hancock Prospecting are not expected to be affected by the industrial action. BHP and the unions are scheduled to resume negotiations on August 18 over a proposed four-year bargaining agreement.

The Western Australia Department of Mines, Petroleum and Exploration has approved the Mining Development and Closure Proposal (MDCP) for Global Lithium Resources' Manna lithium project, located ~110km east of Kalgoorlie-Boulder, the company confirmed. Scope of approval. The MDCP permits early works and critical infrastructure development, including one main pit, two satellite pits, waste rock and dry stack tailings facilities, ore stockpiles, an accommodation village, a bore field, and topsoil stockpile areas. Timeline. The approval feeds into Global Lithium's final investment decision, targeted for Q4 2026. The company is fast-tracking toward first direct shipping ore (DSO) in Q2 2027, followed by first spodumene concentrate production (5.5% Li₂O grade) in mid-2027. MD Dr Dianmin Chen said the permit "accelerates our path to production," reiterating the company's ambition to become Australia's next lithium producer. SMM View: Outside core African coverage but relevant as a global supply-side data point Manna's targeted mid-2027 concentrate ramp adds to the broader spodumene supply pipeline against which African projects (Goulamina, Bikita) compete for market share and pricing. DSO-to concentrate timeline and grade (5.5% Li₂O) are company-stated targets pending FID confirmation; not yet production-verified.

BHP resumed negotiations with unions representing roughly 450 operators and maintenance workers at its Port Hedland iron ore export terminal in Western Australia after an eight-hour strike on July 16 involving up to 200 workers, the first industrial action at the port since 2000. Talks over a new four-year enterprise agreement have run for more than seven months without resolution. The Western Australian Chamber of Minerals and Energy estimated the strike's direct export revenue and royalty loss at approximately A$57 million, with market participants estimating around 2 million tonnes of shipments affected, though a loaded vessel still departed the port on July 17 despite union threats to halt shipping. Port Hedland is the sole export outlet for all of BHP's Western Australian iron ore production and the world's largest bulk iron ore export terminal by throughput. The dispute centers on union objections to BHP's use of individual employment contracts. As of the most recent reporting, negotiations were ongoing rather than resolved.

According to the latest statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 108.085 million mt of iron ore and concentrates in July, down 4.09% MoM but up 3.50% YoY. Cumulative imports of iron ore and concentrates from January to July reached 736.841 million mt, up 5.9% YoY. Reviewing July , global iron ore shipments gradually pulled back after the Q1 quarter-end push, only recovering at the month-end. Customs data showed that China’s iron ore and concentrates imports in July stood at 108.085 million mt, edging down 4.08% MoM. SMM statistics indicated that global shipments for the month totaled 156.60 million mt, up 14.18% MoM, with notable growth from both Australia and Brazil. Affected by typhoon weather, the pace of China’s port arrivals fluctuated significantly more than shipments, showing a low-then-high pattern over the month, with total arrivals rising 17.04% MoM to 134.16 million mt. The phased increases in July shipments and arrivals were more attributable to short-term factors such as statistical periods and weather disruptions rather than growth in supply capability. The first week of July’s statistical period (June 27–July 3) included one more week compared with June, and the concentrated replenishment of arrivals at month-end caused by weather conditions also contributed to this growth. Looking ahead to August , Brazil enters its peak shipping season in Q3, while Australian shipments, after a relatively low start in the new fiscal year, will gradually recover month by month, providing a positive boost to August arrivals from mainstream mines. However, West Africa remains in the rainy season, and a substantial rebound in non-mainstream shipments will have to wait until Q4. At the same time, frequent typhoon weather recently is expected to disrupt the pace of arrivals, potentially leading to a short-term decline. On the demand side, weather factors continue to suppress downstream operating rates, which in turn will persistently dampen iron ore demand. In addition, the August statistical period will be one week shorter than July on a MoM basis. Therefore, iron ore shipments and arrivals at Chinese ports in August are expected to decline MoM from July.

According to the latest statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 108.085 million mt of iron ore and concentrates in July, down 4.09% MoM and up 3.50% YoY. In January-July, cumulative imports of iron ore and concentrates reached 736.841 million mt, up 5.9% YoY. Looking back at July, global iron ore shipments pulled back gradually after the Q1 quarter-end push for target, only rebounding at month-end. According to customs data, China's imports of iron ore and concentrates in July stood at 108.085 million mt, edging down 4.08% MoM. SMM statistics show that global shipments in the month reached 156.60 million mt, up 14.18% MoM, with notable growth from both Australia and Brazil. Affected by typhoons, fluctuations in China's port arrival pace were significantly larger than those in shipments, with the month showing a low-then-high pattern, as total port arrivals grew 17.04% MoM to 134.16 million mt. The phased increase in shipments and port arrivals in July was more attributable to short-term factors such as statistical cycles and weather disruptions, rather than growth in supply capability. The first week of July's statistical period (June 27 to July 3) was one week more than in June, and the concentrated replenishment of port arrivals at month-end caused by weather also contributed to the increase. Looking ahead to August, Brazil enters its peak shipping season in Q3, while Australian mines had a low first month of the new fiscal year and are expected to recover month by month. Mainstream ores will provide a positive boost to port arrivals in August; however, West Africa remains in its rainy season, and a substantial rebound in non-mainstream shipments will have to wait until Q4. Meanwhile, with frequent typhoons recently, the port arrival pace is expected to be disrupted, potentially leading to short-term declines. On the demand side, weather conditions continue to suppress downstream operating rates, which will in turn keep iron ore demand in check. Furthermore, the statistical period in August will be one week shorter than in July on a MoM basis. Therefore, iron ore shipments and port arrivals to China in August are expected to decline MoM from July.

SMM, August 10: Metals market: Last Friday overnight, base metals across domestic and overseas markets generally fell, with only LME aluminum, LME lead, LME nickel, and SHFE nickel rising together. LME nickel led the gains with a 1.5% increase, SHFE nickel rose 0.52%, LME aluminum rose 0.09%, and LME lead rose 0.03%. LME zinc led the declines with a 1.9% drop, LME tin fell 1.67%, SHFE zinc fell 1.54%, and SHFE tin fell 1.51%. Other metals fell within 1%. The alumina main contract rose 0.04%, while the aluminum main contract fell 0.09%. Last Friday overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance: stainless steel rose 0.21%, rebar ended flat at 3,010 yuan/mt, and iron ore fell 0.56%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.71% and coke rose 1.15%. Last Friday overnight, in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 2.37% overnight last Friday, reclaiming $4,400/oz, and surged 7.17% for the week; COMEX silver rose 3.56% overnight last Friday, up 10.41% for the week. On the domestic front, SHFE gold rose 1.53% and SHFE silver rose 1.66%. SHFE gold gained 5.03% for the week, while SHFE silver gained 9.43%. UBS Chief Investment Officer Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi and her team said: "The current gold rally has fundamental support. We expect gold prices to march toward $5,000 per ounce in H1 2027." Since the US and Israel launched a war on Iran in late February, gold prices briefly pulled back under pressure. UBS strategists said: Risks remain in the short term. If oil prices rise or the market prices in expectations of a more hawkish Fed monetary policy and increased bond appeal, gold prices will face pressure; however, the institution remains optimistic on gold's medium- and long-term outlook. Hoffmann-Burchardi said the team expects inflation to gradually ease, and the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged this year and resume its rate-cutting cycle in 2027. "Growing expectations for lower policy rates are likely to suppress real yields and weigh on the dollar, thereby boosting investment demand for gold and creating a more favorable market environment for the metal." (Wall Street CN) As of 7:40 on August 8, last Friday's overnight closing quotes: Macro front Domestic: [Over 30 trillion yuan! China's goods trade imports and exports continued growth momentum in the first seven months of this year] The General Administration of Customs released data today showing that in the first seven months of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 30.13 trillion yuan, up 17.3% YoY, continuing a solid growth trend. Of which, exports reached 17.44 trillion yuan, up 14%; imports reached 12.69 trillion yuan, up 22%. In July, imports and exports totaled 4.66 trillion yuan, up 19.2% YoY. Of this, exports reached 2.71 trillion yuan, up 17.8% YoY, and imports reached 1.95 trillion yuan, up 21.2% YoY. SMM compiled the import and export data for some metal industry products based on figures released by the General Administration of Customs, as follows: [H1 aluminum industry profit up about 115% YoY, aluminum semis and aluminum products exports up about 14% YoY] In H1 2026, the aluminum industry's profit rose about 115% YoY. While aluminum prices increased, raw material costs such as alumina pulled back. Some enterprises also further adopted green electricity like hydropower and expanded the use of new energy, making production greener and gaining cost advantages. Not only were domestic clients pressing for orders, but overseas clients were also placing more orders. In H1 this year, China exported a total of 5.62 million mt of aluminum semis and aluminum products, up about 14% YoY. More orders and busier production lines meant environmental protection facilities were running at full capacity. (CCTV Finance) [Beijing: Housing Provident Fund Maximum Loan Amount to Be Moderately Raised; Married Couples' First-Home Provident Fund Loan Can Be Up to 3.4 Million Yuan] On the evening of the 7th, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Planning and Natural Resources, and the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center jointly issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Policies." The notice mentioned that the maximum housing provident fund loan amount will be moderately raised. For a home-buying family with one provident fund contributor, the maximum loan amount for a first home is 1.2 million yuan, and for a second home it is 1 million yuan. For families where both spouses are contributors, the maximum loan amount for a first home is 2.4 million yuan, and for a second home it is 2 million yuan. For those meeting the following conditions, the maximum loan amount can be further increased: 1. For households registered in the six urban districts purchasing a first home outside those districts, the maximum can be raised by 200,000 yuan; 2. For home purchases that comply with the city's policies supporting green building development, the maximum can be raised by 400,000 yuan; 3. For Beijing-registered families with two or more children purchasing a home, it can be raised by 400,000 yuan. If multiple conditions are met, the maximum loan amount can be raised cumulatively: for a family with one contributor, the maximum increase is 600,000 yuan; for a family where both spouses are contributors, the maximum increase is 1 million yuan. The actual loan amount will be determined based on the family's repayment ability. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of last Friday’s overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.35% to 99.6, down 0.18% for the week and recording a two-week losing streak. US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far below the market expectation of an 80,000 increase; data for May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000, and the labour force participation rate hit its lowest in over five years. The disappointing jobs data caused the probability of a September rate hike to plunge from 55% to 44%, the 10-year Treasury yield dived from 4.68% to 4.65%, and the US dollar index briefly fell below 99.5 intraday. ‘Fed whisperer’ Nick Timiraos: The July employment report will be a hard one for the Fed to interpret. There is no new evidence that the labour market is re-accelerating, which may partly weaken the case for a rate hike next month, though this still depends on whether inflation data can improve further. Officials held rates steady last week, but three of the 12 voting members voted for a hike. A falling unemployment rate will keep attention focused on inflation data. (Wallstreetcn) The latest New York Fed survey showed that Americans’ overall perceptions of the job market improved in July, while their inflation expectations also shifted. Consumers’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations edged down to 3.6% from 3.7%. Three-year and five-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.3% and 3%, respectively. The perceived probability of finding a new job among unemployed workers rose to 46.2%, the highest this year. The increase was most pronounced among those with a high school education or less and households with annual incomes below $50,000. Consumers became more optimistic about the stock market, with the expected probability that stock prices would rise in a year reaching the highest since April 2021 for this series. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME’s “FedWatch”: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is 59.9%, with a 40.1% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike. For October, the probabilities are: rates unchanged (45.3%), a cumulative 25bp hike (44.9%), and a cumulative 50bp hike (9.8%). (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week, China will release the July M2 money supply y/y data, among others; the US will release the July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the weekly change in ADP employment for the week ended July 25, July existing home sales annualized, July CPI y/y not seasonally adjusted, July CPI m/m seasonally adjusted, July core CPI m/m seasonally adjusted, July core CPI y/y not seasonally adjusted, the high yield and bid-to-cover ratio for the 10-year Treasury auction on August 12, initial jobless claims for the week ended August 8, July PPI y/y and m/m, July retail sales m/m, the preliminary August one-year inflation expectations, June business inventories m/m, and the preliminary August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index; the eurozone will release the August Sentix Investor Confidence Index, June industrial production m/m, the revised Q2 GDP y/y, final Q2 employment q/q seasonally adjusted, and the June seasonally adjusted trade balance; the UK will release the preliminary Q2 GDP y/y, June three-month GDP m/m, June manufacturing output m/m, June seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and June industrial production m/m; data including France’s July final CPI m/m, Canada’s June wholesale sales m/m, Japan’s June trade balance, the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision on August 11, and Germany’s July final CPI m/m will also be released. Additionally, the National Energy Administration releases nationwide electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. The Bank of Japan releases the Summary of Opinions from its July monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivers a speech. 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks on the economic outlook. RBA Governor Bullock attends a hearing. Crude oil: Both crude oil benchmarks fell in overnight trading last Friday, with WTI down 0.27% and Brent down 0.13%. Weekly, WTI dropped 8.96% and Brent fell 6.31%. The market remains focused on negotiations between the US and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Expectations of a US-Iran peace agreement have compressed the geopolitical risk premium. Goldman Sachs’ energy research team estimates Brent's fair value at $80 and maintains a consolidation range of $80-90. On August 7, US officials said that progress has been made between Oman and Iran on the Strait of Hormuz issue, and an agreement is expected soon. Once an agreement to restore unimpeded commercial shipping is announced, the US will lift the blockade on Iranian ports. US actions will continue to depend on actual performance and will be linked to Iran’s compliance with its commitments. Regarding the above, Iran and Oman have yet to respond. (CCTV) It was learned on August 7 that Hassan Kashkavi, spokesman for the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated that Iran and Oman have clarified the overall framework of the memorandum of understanding on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with the final text and specific details to be released soon. On August 6, Iran disclosed preliminary text details of the proposed Strait of Hormuz strategic management plan, which includes prohibiting hostile parties from transiting the strait, with violators to be fined up to 20% of the cargo value. Iran has repeatedly stressed in recent days that arrangements concerning the Strait of Hormuz should be decided solely by Iran and Oman, and will never accept any external intervention. Meanwhile, US President Trump said on the 6th that the US is participating in the negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV) This week, the EIA releases its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the IEA publishes its monthly oil market report, and OPEC issues its monthly oil market report (specific release times are to be confirmed, typically around 18-21 Beijing time). China's refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window.