SMM reported on August 20, 2026: In the Guangdong region, spot premiums this week showed a bottoming-out trend. On Monday, which coincided with the delivery day, spot cargo traded at a large discount amid a wide price spread between futures contracts. After the contract rollover, premiums rebounded significantly, but end-use consumption remained weak, and some suppliers were eager to sell, actively lowering premiums, causing premiums to decline again. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt from last Thursday; standard-quality copper at 110 yuan/mt, up 230 yuan/mt; and SX-EW copper at 40 yuan/mt, up 240 yuan/mt. On Thursday, the price spread between Shanghai and Guangdong for standard-quality copper premiums was 150 yuan/mt higher in Shanghai, still not large enough to trigger cross-regional cargo transfers this week. According to SMM, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses stood at 20,400 mt, up 5,000 mt from last Thursday; combined warrants totaled 9,400 mt, up 4,200 mt from last Thursday. Suppliers actively shipped to delivery warehouses before the contract rollover due to the wide price spread. Specifically: this week's warehouse arrivals were 18,700 mt/week, up 6,800 mt/week from last week, exceeding the annual average of 14,000 mt/week, mainly due to suppliers actively shipping to delivery warehouses before delivery. Warehouse withdrawals were 13,700 mt/week, down 1,700 mt/week from last week, slightly below the annual average of 14,200 mt/week. After the contract rollover and with copper prices still at high levels, downstream restocking enthusiasm was moderate. Looking ahead to next week, it is learned that supply from domestic smelters will decrease due to active shipping to delivery warehouses last week, while downstream consumption is expected to gradually recover. Therefore, inventory will decline next week, and spot premiums are expected to consolidate higher. (The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessment by the Shanghai Metals Market research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make cautious decisions and not replace their own independent judgment with this. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.)

[Zhang Xue Visits Ampace Today, Says Zhang Xue Electric Motorcycle Could Enter Mass Production as Early as Next Year] ZXMOTO founder Zhang Xue visited Ampace for a field trip and exchange on August 20. Zhang Xue stated that the Zhang Xue electric motorcycle could enter mass production as early as next year. In May of this year, Ampace and ZXMOTO had already begun discussions on specific collaboration plans. Ampace is a lithium battery enterprise jointly established by CATL and ATL.

SMM, August 20 - PV aluminum extrusion: This week, operating rates at PV frame producers in the survey sample showed a modest uptick. The US finalized its new import adjustment rules for polysilicon and its derivatives in early August, with related tariffs set to take effect in December. Driven by expectations of front-loaded shipments during the policy buffer window, marginal growth emerged in export orders from China-based PV module producers destined for the US, indirectly boosting demand for upstream PV frame matching. However, at the current stage, PV frame producers reported sufficient orders on hand, with capacity already at a relatively high level. Coupled with low processing fees and squeezed profit margins in the industry, producers adopted a cautious attitude toward taking new external orders, limiting further upside room for operating rates. Additionally, some frame producers noted that the recent rebound in raw material prices such as polysilicon has increased cost pressure on module production, raising concerns that PV module producers may lower production schedules due to profit considerations, thereby dragging frame demand lower. Going forward, the focus should be on tracking monthly production schedule adjustments of downstream PV modules and the sustainability of ex-China export orders. Overall, in the near term, operating rates at China's PV frame producers are expected to consolidate on a strong note. Raw material prices: During the period (Aug 17, 2026 - Aug 20, 2026), the SMM A00 weekly average price stood at 23,810 yuan/mt, down 1.4% from the prior weekly average. Overall, macro sentiment fluctuated, frequently disrupting aluminum prices in China and overseas. On the fundamentals side, aluminum ingot inventory continued its destocking trend, providing bottom support for aluminum prices. However, the recovery of the domestic-outside China price ratio, coupled with the digestion of orders on hand, suggested export demand would gradually weaken. Domestic terminal demand performed modestly at best, leading to some market concerns about peak-season demand. In the near term, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note. The most-traded SHFE aluminum contract is projected to trade in a range of 23,200–24,000 yuan/mt next week, while LME aluminum is expected to range between 3,150–3,250 $/mt. Going forward, attention should be paid to the demand trend of China's aluminum semis exports.

According to Chinese customs data, China's lithium hydroxide imports in July 2026 reached 8,322.16 tonnes, up 89.1% month-over-month from 4,400.35 tonnes in June; exports totaled 6,419.51 tonnes, up 6.7% from 6,018 tonnes in June. For the month, China turned into a net importer of lithium hydroxide. On the import side, the primary source in July was Indonesia, with imports of 4,444.37 tonnes accounting for 53.4% of the total, mainly attributed to the concentrated arrival of previously accumulated shipments. Other sources included South Korea (1,361.97 tonnes), domestic bonded warehouse zones in China (1,130.11 tonnes), Australia (690.89 tonnes), Argentina (399.74 tonnes), and Germany (295 tonnes). Imports from Indonesia surged nearly fivefold month-over-month, making it the largest incremental source. On the export side, China's lithium hydroxide exports were mainly destined for South Korea and Japan. Shipments to South Korea reached 4,783.69 tonnes, accounting for 74.5% of total exports; exports to Japan totaled 1,304.00 tonnes, representing 20.3%; and shipments to the Netherlands stood at 227.01 tonnes. Other destinations included Thailand (38 tonnes), Brazil (20 tonnes), and Singapore (20 tonnes), all in smaller quantities. In summary, on the import front, the large influx of overseas lithium hydroxide has increased domestic market availability over the past two months, significantly capping the price upside for July–August. On the export front, modest recovery in overseas demand in recent months has kept exports above 6,000 tonnes per month, maintaining a relatively high level.

According to the latest customs data, China imported 425,600 tonnes of zinc concentrate (physical tonnes) in July 2026, up 17.29% month on month, or 62,700 tonnes, but down 15.12% year on year. Total zinc concentrate imports reached 3.1872 million tonnes in January-July, up 5% year on year.

[Imported Zinc Concentrates Rebounded 17% MoM in July! Can Imports Rise in August?] According to the latest customs data, in July 2026, imported zinc concentrates were 425,600 mt in physical content, up 17.29% MoM from June (62,700 mt in physical content), down 15.12% YoY. Cumulative zinc concentrate imports from January to July totaled 3.1872 million mt in physical content, up 5% YoY cumulatively...

MMG Limited has temporarily suspended operations at its Las Bambas copper mine in Peru following a fatal accident on August 18 that killed two workers and injured three others. The incident occurred during pump replacement work at a clarification pond located approximately 9 km from the Las Bambas processing plant. Following the accident, MMG suspended activities across the operation while investigations are carried out, with Peru’s labour inspection authority, Sunafil, also opening an investigation and sending inspectors to the site to determine the circumstances surrounding the incident.​ MMG said operations at Las Bambas are expected to restart progressively from August 21, suggesting that the disruption could remain relatively short-lived if the current timetable is maintained. The company has not announced any change to its 2026 copper production guidance, so there is currently no confirmed impact on full-year output. However, given the scale of Las Bambas, even a temporary suspension is relevant to the copper market, particularly at a time when global copper concentrate availability remains tight.​ Las Bambas is one of Peru’s largest copper mines and a major source of copper concentrate for the global market. The operation produced approximately 410,829 mt of copper in 2025, equivalent to roughly 2% of global mined copper supply. This means the immediate market impact should remain limited if production resumes from August 21 as planned, but any delay to the restart would increase the significance of the disruption and could add further pressure to an already constrained concentrate market.

SMM August 20 News: Price Review: As of Thursday this week, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,681.62 yuan/mt, down 0.46 yuan/mt from last Thursday. In Shandong, the price was reported at 2,650-2,720 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW; in Henan, 2,690-2,750 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW; in Shanxi, 2,680-2,740 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW; in Guangxi, 2,580-2,640 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt WoW; and in Guizhou, 2,720-2,790 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW. Markets Outside China: As of August 13, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $360/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $32/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.74. This price was equivalent to approximately 3,066.17 yuan/mt at mainstream Chinese ports, which was 384.55 yuan/mt higher than the alumina index price. Seven spot alumina transactions were concluded outside China this week, with details as follows: (1) On August 20, 2026, an alumina transaction was concluded outside China at $363/mt FOB East Australia for 30,000 mt, or $364/mt FOB East Australia for 50,000 mt, seller's option, with October shipment. (2) On August 13, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $374/mt CFR Malaysia, with August shipment. (3) On August 14, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $362.5/mt FOB West Australia, with September shipment. (4) On August 14, 2026, 63,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $409/mt CIF Rotterdam. (5) On August 14, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $400/mt FOB Jamaica, with September shipment. (6) On August 13, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $360/mt FOB West Australia or $358/mt FOB East Australia, with October shipment. (7) On August 13, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $374/mt CFR Malaysia, with August shipment. Chinese Market: According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, China's total installed capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina was 118.42 million mt/year, with total operating capacity at 88.01 million mt/year. The national alumina weekly operating rate remained flat WoW at 74.33%. Specifically, the weekly operating rate for alumina in Shandong remained flat WoW at 89.14%; in Shanxi, flat at 64.9%; in Henan, flat at 56.53%; in Guangxi, flat at 78.05%; and in Guizhou, flat at 83.05%. Spot market side, two transactions were concluded this week. Xinjiang procured 5,000 mt of spot alumina at delivered prices of 2,960 yuan/mt each. Xinjiang procured 10,000 mt of spot alumina at delivered prices of 2,985 yuan/mt each. Spot alumina prices fell steadily this week, with the oversupply situation continuing to weigh on China prices. Markets outside China showed a different trend, with alumina prices rising steadily, mainly due to two reasons: first, transportation issues in the Middle East increased demand for bagged alumina, leading to a premium and sustained rise in prices outside China; second, bauxite supply in Indonesia was generally tight, limiting local alumina production and pushing spot prices outside China higher. Domestically, operating capacity for alumina remained stable this week, with weekly production at 1.688 million mt. Inventory performance showed divergence: raw material inventories at aluminum smelters decreased by 9,000 mt to 3.399 million mt, with current consumption primarily from in-factory inventory and long-term contract procurement pace maintained, overall changes relatively small; finished product inventories at alumina refineries decreased by 3,000 mt to 1.217 million mt, with enterprises maintaining normal long-term contract shipments and limited fluctuations; port inventories decreased by 35,000 mt to 1.016 million mt, mainly due to a decline in pickup volume; warrant inventories increased by 15,000 mt to 288,000 mt, and in-transit inventories edged up by 2,000 mt to 1.325 million mt. Overall, total alumina inventories in China decreased by 30,000 mt to 7.245 million mt. Looking ahead to next week, an alumina enterprise in Guangxi will resume production after maintenance ends, with capacity expected to recover, and overall supply is expected to increase, keeping the market under pressure. On imports and exports, July net imports were 63,000 mt, and net imports are expected to decrease going forward, with port inventories likely to decline during the period. Overall, inventory levels are expected to fluctuate within the current range, and spot prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. [Data other than public information are based on public information, market communication, and the SMM internal database model, processed by SMM for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]

This week (August 17–August 20), the weekly average price range for Yangshan copper premiums on warrants settled at $76–96/mt, QP September, with an average of $86/mt; the weekly average price range for B/Ls settled at $76–86/mt, QP September, with an average of $81/mt; EQ copper CIF B/Ls stood at $45–61/mt, QP September, with an average of $53/mt. As of August 20, the SHFE/LME copper price ratio (ex-exchange rate) for LME copper against SHFE copper September 2609 contract was 1.1306, with an import loss of about -694.8 yuan/mt, narrowing by around 309 yuan/mt WoW. As of Thursday, the LME copper September date backwardation structure narrowed WoW, with the swap fee difference between September date and October date at −46.25 $/mt. Currently, mainstream offers for ER registered copper B/Ls were around $95/mt; mainstream offers for registered copper warrants were around $95–100/mt; mainstream offers for EQ copper B/Ls were around $45–60/mt. At the start of the week, LME copper experienced a squeeze, with copper prices shooting up on the delivery day and the LME backwardation structure rising to a high level, leading market participants to mostly wait and see. Subsequently, LME saw concentrated deliveries during the week, driving inventory up rapidly. Copper prices pulled back, the import price ratio recovered, the export window closed, and the LME copper near-month backwardation structure converged. In the spot market, buyers and sellers continued to grapple, with divergent transactions: downstream mainly engaged in just-in-time procurement, with some cargoes that had already arrived or were about to dock seeing low-priced transactions, while suppliers of forward cargoes quoted relatively firm prices. According to SMM, as of this Thursday (August 20), China's bonded zone copper inventories increased by about 1,600 mt WoW from the previous period (August 13) to 36,800 mt. Among them, Shanghai bonded inventory increased by 2,500 mt WoW to 33,600 mt, while Guangdong bonded inventory decreased by 900 mt WoW to 3,200 mt. The increase in bonded zone inventory was mainly due to: 1. The export window had opened earlier, and some exported copper cathode continued to arrive at bonded zones; 2. A small amount of B/Ls arrived at ports and flowed in. Looking ahead, US tariffs have seen no substantial progress. Given LME's high backwardation structure triggering massive concentrated deliveries, expectations exist for further recovery in the import price ratio. Attention should be paid to the short-term spot supply of registered copper, and ongoing congestion at Shanghai port may provide support for the downside of imported copper premiums. However, the recovery of domestic demand still awaits observation, and short-term divergence between upstream and downstream is likely to persist.

[Supply Side Production Cut Expectations and Disruption Intensify, Silicon Metal Prices Continue Strong]: On the market quotation and transaction side, affected by expectations for month-end production cuts at large plants in Xinjiang, silicon enterprises generally have a strong sentiment to hold prices firm. Their quotes increased WoW, and futures-spot traders also raised their quotes following the rise in futures prices, leaving almost no low-priced supply in the market. The center of suppliers' quotations generally increased, while China's downstream users and users outside China show little willingness to chase price rises. Some downstream users have poor acceptance of high prices and mainly place orders on demand for restocking.