On June 12th, Bloomberg reported that Teck Resources and Sumitomo Metal Mining are locked in a dispute over treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) in a major copper concentrate supply agreement. The disagreement, centered on shipments from Teck’s Quebrada Blanca and Highland Valley mines, has prompted the appointment of lawyers to select an industry expert as an independent referee. The clash highlights cracks in the traditional benchmark pricing system, after Antofagasta’s 2025 deal with Chinese smelters set TC/RCs at $21.25/2.125 cents, far below historical norms. Some Japanese buyers, including Sumitomo, have resisted adopting this benchmark amid sharply falling spot TC/RCs, which have recently turned negative. The situation underscores growing tension between well-funded Chinese smelters and financially pressured Western peers, with some smelters in the Philippines and Namibia already suspending operations.
Jun 13, 2025 17:54[SMM Analysis: When It Rains, It Pours - Global Copper Concentrates Supply-Demand Balance After the Earthquake at KK Mine] At the end of May, Chinese smelters and Antofagasta commenced mid-year negotiations. In the first round of negotiations this year, miners had already offered a midpoint price of -US$15 to the smelters. This figure was significantly lower than the US$0/dmt that had circulated in the market in late April. According to SMM, many raw material procurement teams from leading smelters in the CSPT group indicated that the negotiations were fraught with difficulties, and it was exceptionally challenging to secure a favorable figure.
Jun 13, 2025 16:57》Check SMM metal quotes, data, and market analysis 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot cargo On June 13, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$44.75/dmt, a decrease of $1.46/dmt from the previous -$43.29/dmt. The pricing coefficient for 20% grade domestic trade ore was 93%-95%. Trading activity in the copper concentrate spot market was sluggish during the week. A trader offered 10,000 mt of clean ore from Peru to a smelter at a price in the mid-to-high -$40s/dmt, with a loading period in July and a QP of M+1/5. A smelter had previously purchased 20,000 mt of Caserones and Centinela copper concentrates from a large trader under an index-linked settlement model, with a loading period in July and a QP of M+1/5. During the week, a trader offered 10,000 mt of bundled clean ore to a smelter at a high -$40s/dmt price, with a loading period in July. The gold payable was fully priced after a deduction of 0.3 for gold content below 1 gram. According to market rumors, a large trader offered copper concentrates to two leading domestic smelters, with a total volume of 300,000 mt of ore (long-term contract + spot cargo) at a price in the mid-to-high -$40s/dmt, with a loading period in H2. According to SMM, most Chinese smelters participating in long-term contract negotiations have not yet received a second-round long-term contract offer from Antofagasta. However, one smelter has already responded with a positive single-digit high offer. Japanese smelters have also not initiated a second-round long-term contract offer. They are adhering to the pricing stance since CESCO at the end of last year, insisting on a long-term contract price of $20/30, otherwise, their production and operation will face losses. Ivanhoe Mines announced its latest 2025 production guidance for copper from the Kamoa-Kakula mine, which is 370,000-420,000 mt in metal content, a decrease of 28% from the 520,000-580,000 mt in metal content guidance released at the beginning of the year, mainly due to the earthquake that previously hit the Kakula copper mine. Sinomine Resource Group announced that due to the rapid expansion of global copper smelting capacity, leading to a shortage of copper concentrate supply, its Tsumeb copper smelter in Namibia has temporarily suspended copper smelting operations. In 2024, Sinomine Resource Group acquired the Tsumeb smelter. This smelter is one of the few facilities globally capable of processing copper concentrates containing arsenic and lead, with an annual processing capacity of 240,000 mt of copper concentrates. The SMM copper concentrate inventory at nine ports was 812,800 mt on June 13, an increase of 65,500 mt from the previous period. The main increase came from Qingdao Port, where copper concentrate inventory increased by 40,000 mt WoW this week. 》Check SMM metal industry chain database
Jun 13, 2025 15:19[SMM Analysis:When it rains, it pours: Global copper concentrate supply-demand balance results after KK Mine earthquake ] At the end of May, Chinese smelters started mid-year negotiations with Antofagasta. In the first round of negotiations this year, mining companies have offered smelters a quotation with -$15 , which is far lower than the $0 leaked by the market in late April. According to SMM, many raw material procurement teams from leading smelters in the CSPT group stated that this negotiation is extremely difficult, and it is arduous to strive for a favorable figure.
Jun 6, 2025 19:14》Check SMM metal quotes, data, and market analysis 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot cargo On May 30, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$43.56/dmt, an increase of $0.72/dmt from the previous -$44.28/dmt. The pricing coefficient for 20% grade domestic trade ore ranges from 93% to 95%. Despite several Chinese smelters engaging in mid-year negotiations with Antofagasta in Shanghai during the week, it did not hinder the recovery of activity in the copper concentrates spot market. A trader sold 10,000 mt of clean ore with a June shipment period to smelters at a low price of -$40/dmt and another 10,000 mt of high-gold ore with a July shipment period at a mid-to-low price of -$40/dmt, both with a QP of M+1/5. A smelter purchased 10,000 mt of South American clean ore from a trader at a mid-to-low price of -$40/dmt, with a July shipment period and a QP of M+1/5. The gold Payable was subject to a full deduction for content below 0.3g. A trader was offering 20,000 mt of South American clean ore with a July shipment period and a QP of M+1/5, with normal gold and silver Payable terms. Previously, the tender results of Anglo American were announced, with a smelter winning a bid for 10,000 mt of QVC at a mid-range price close to -$40/dmt and a trader winning a bid for 10,000 mt of Los Bronces at a price close to -$90/dmt, both with a QP of M+3 and a shipment period in H2 2025. Following the first round of negotiations by Japanese companies last week, Chinese smelters commenced mid-year negotiations with Antofagasta this week. According to SMM, in the first round of negotiations this year, miners had already offered a price in the mid -$15/dmt range to smelters. This figure was significantly lower than the $0/dmt that had circulated in the market in late April. According to foreign media reports, seismic activity at the Kakula underground mine continued intermittently over the past few days, and underground mining operations were suspended again on May 25, 2025. The earthquake caused fractures in underground water veins, leading to an increase in water inflow at the Kakula underground mine. A detailed drainage plan is currently being formulated, including the procurement of additional pumping equipment to enhance pumping capacity and allow for surface drainage. According to SMM, production activities at Kakula may be affected for up to six months. The KK mine is processing low-grade copper ore piled up in the mining area to maintain normal shipments and has not declared force majeure at this time. SMM's copper concentrates inventory at nine ports was 795,900 mt as of May 30, an increase of 15,600 mt from the previous period. The main increase came from Fangchenggang, where copper concentrates inventory increased by 70,000 mt WoW this week. 》Check SMM metal industry chain database
May 30, 2025 14:55On the macro front, as China and the US reached a substantive consensus on easing economic and trade tensions in Geneva, the trajectory of the US's trade policies toward major economies has once again fluctuated. Despite the US Secretary of Commerce expressing the intention to finalize agreements with major trading partners before summer, President Trump recently reiterated the possibility of imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, leading to heightened market risk aversion and putting pressure on the US dollar index. The 90-day negotiation window briefly reopened between the US and the EU still faces significant uncertainty. Trump's tax reform bill narrowly passed the House of Representatives, proposing a substantial increase of $4 trillion in the debt ceiling. It is expected that the scale of US debt will expand by an additional $3.3 trillion over the next decade, with the federal debt ratio potentially surging to 125% of GDP, indicating an increasingly aggressive path of fiscal expansion. In terms of monetary policy, although some Fed officials, such as Waller, lean toward initiating interest rate cuts in H2 if tariffs decline, given the frequent changes in trade policies and the potential impact of tariffs on supply chains, the market believes that the Fed is unlikely to take substantive action before July, and the pace of interest rate cuts may be delayed. This week, copper prices fluctuated rangebound as expected, with LME copper trading around $9,550-9,650/mt and SHFE copper trading around 77,700-78,500 yuan/mt. On the fundamental front, Antofagasta conducted negotiations for mid-2025 long-term contracts in Japan last week, with the initial TC offer at -$15/mt. According to market sources, the Japanese side showed low acceptance of this offer, and no specific figures were released during the first round of negotiations in China this week. Mid-week, the incident at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the DRC gradually escalated, with both major shareholders issuing statements announcing the suspension of underground mining operations, with the total impact yet to be assessed. For copper cathode, spot premiums both domestically and internationally declined this week, with no pre-holiday stocking demand evident and social inventory remaining flat overall. The SHFE backwardation structure narrowed for consecutive months, while the LME backwardation structure expanded significantly. Looking ahead to next week, macroeconomic data for May from various countries is set to be released. Affected by tariffs, it is expected that economic data for April-May will show little marginal growth overall, and copper prices are anticipated to remain flat. It is expected that LME copper will fluctuate rangebound between $9,350-9,550/mt next week, while SHFE copper will fluctuate between 77,000-78,000 yuan/mt. On the spot front, as the country gradually enters the off-season for consumption, downstream demand remains weak amid high copper prices. However, the supply of imported copper is also tight, leading to a state of weak balance with both supply and demand decreasing domestically. It is expected that spot premiums will stabilize after a slight drop. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2506 contract are expected to range from a premium of 80-150 yuan/mt.
May 30, 2025 14:12On the 28th local time, OPEC+ held an online meeting. Early this morning, according to the latest news from Bloomberg, based on the statement released after the meeting, OPEC+ has agreed to use the 2025 oil production level as the benchmark for 2027. Meanwhile, OPEC+ will authorize the OPEC Secretariat to develop a mechanism to assess the maximum sustainable production capacity of participating countries, which will serve as a reference for the 2027 production benchmark. The next Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting of OPEC+ will be held on November 30th. OPEC+ will also hold another round of negotiations this Saturday, when it may decide whether to increase production in July. Representatives said that the eight OPEC+ member countries attending the meeting on Saturday may agree to increase daily production by 411,000 barrels in July, in line with the production increases in May and June. In addition, according to CCTV News, on the 28th local time, US President Trump stated that he had warned Israel to refrain from attacking Iran for the time being, so that the US government could have more time to promote a new nuclear agreement with Iran. Trump said he believed that Iran wanted to reach an agreement, which would "save many lives," and that the agreement could be reached "within the next few weeks." Trump also expressed his desire to bring inspectors to Iran. Overnight and into the early morning, international oil prices continued to rise. WTI crude oil futures rose by 2.5% to $62.41 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures rose by 2% to $64.85 per barrel. At the close, WTI crude oil futures closed up 1.56% at $61.84 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures closed up 1.26% at $64.90 per barrel. US Fed releases minutes of May interest rate-setting meeting According to CCTV News, on May 28th local time, the US Fed released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting held from May 6th to 7th. The minutes showed that the Fed agreed to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5%. Participants unanimously agreed that when considering the magnitude and timing of further adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee would carefully assess subsequent data, the changing economic outlook, and the balance of risks. The minutes stated that when assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee would continue to monitor the impact of future information on the economic outlook. Participants said that the assessment would take into account a wide range of information, including labour market conditions, inflationary pressures and inflation expectations, as well as financial and international developments. The Committee assessed that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook had further increased. Participants pointed out that if inflation persists while the outlook for economic growth and employment weakens, the Committee may face difficult trade-offs. The final magnitude of adjustments to government policies and their impact on the economy remain highly uncertain. Against this backdrop, all participants agreed that it was appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%. When considering the outlook for monetary policy, participants unanimously believed that, given the continued resilience of economic growth and the labour market, the Committee was well-positioned to wait for greater clarity on the outlook for inflation and economic activity. It was appropriate to adopt a cautious approach until the net economic effects of a series of government policy adjustments became clearer. Glencore makes significant purchases of Russian copper on the LME On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported market news that over the past three trading days, the London Metal Exchange (LME) Rotterdam warehouse had received delivery requests for approximately 15,000 mt of copper, leading to a significant decline in LME copper inventories. The report stated that Glencore, a global commodity giant, was the main trader behind these cargo pick-up applications and was planning to ship the copper to China. Notably, a substantial amount of Russian copper was involved in the transactions. It is understood that since the full-scale outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, escalating sanctions imposed by Europe and the US on Russia have led to a continuous accumulation of Russian copper inventories on the LME. In April 2024, the US and the UK announced new trading restrictions on Russian aluminum, copper, and nickel, including prohibiting the LME and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) from accepting newly produced Russian metals, while allowing eligible metal inventories. What are the implications? "After the US and the UK imposed sanctions on Russian copper in April 2024, Russian copper accounted for over 50% of the copper inventories in LME European warehouses, while China became one of the major export destinations for Russian copper following the sanctions," Zhang Weixin, a non-ferrous metals researcher at China Securities Futures, told reporters. After Russia and Ukraine resumed negotiations and proposed a ceasefire framework in May this year, Glencore may be betting on a relaxation of US and UK sanctions on Russia. Against the backdrop of warming spot demand in China, high premiums for imported copper, and the potential easing of US and UK sanctions on Russia, if Glencore resumes trading in Russian copper, it is expected to alleviate the "copper shortage" situation in the market. The reporter learned that in March this year, US copper prices surged to $11,633/mt, with a premium over LME copper reaching as high as $1,570/mt. Gu Fengda, chief analyst at Guosen Futures, stated that the high premium for US copper directly spurred a frenzy of "trans-oceanic arbitrage" and attracted a continuous influx of global spot copper into the US, further exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch across regions. Currently, the premium for US copper over LME copper stands at $683/mt, still significantly higher than the historical average for the same period. "With the favorable performance of copper fundamentals and the flow of some spot copper to the US, expectations of tight copper supply in markets outside the US continue to grow, which is also an important reason for Glencore's significant purchases of Russian copper this time."As spot liquidity tightens, LME copper's term structure may remain strong," said Xianfei Ji, a nonferrous metals researcher at Guotai Junan Futures. Data shows that since late April, LME copper inventories have continued to decline. This week, the destocking pace of LME copper inventories accelerated further, currently pulling back to 154,300 mt, hitting new periodic lows. Meanwhile, LME copper registered warrant quantities declined in tandem, now retreating to 83,125 mt. Cancelled warrants stood at 71,175 mt, with the ratio of cancelled warrants at 46.13%, remaining at elevated levels. Domestically, Weixin Zhang noted that due to the US "Section 232 investigation" on critical minerals, global commodity trading giants have diverted copper originally destined for Asia to the US, even relabeling Chilean Antofagasta copper ingots with US standards. This caused delays or cancellations of China's imported copper long-term contracts scheduled for April and May arrivals, driving up spot copper premiums in China and creating tight spot supply conditions. "Glencore's potential import activities could help alleviate China's copper supply tightness," said Yunfei Wang, head of the investment consulting department at ShanJin Futures. Currently, global copper cathode inventories are at median historical levels, while domestic copper inventories remain at historic lows. From price spread performance, the US copper premium over LME copper remains high, but with intensified price volatility, market divergence is gradually emerging. Policy-wise, after the US "reciprocal tariff" policy implementation was postponed, the market expected accelerated US copper scrap exports and increased raw material supply. However, domestic TC prices show no signs of raw material supply improvement yet. Inventory-wise, as of the week ending May 28, the US copper inventory buildup trend paused, while domestic social inventory also showed stabilization signs. Overall, Wang believes the US copper "arbitrage wave" may reverse at some point, creating downside potential for copper prices, though no reversal signals have appeared yet. Ji noted investors should closely monitor whether Trump will impose 25% additional tariffs on imported copper. If tariff hike expectations keep getting priced in, it may sustain high price spreads between US and LME copper, with South American and other regional supplies continuously diverted to the US, leaving other regions persistently undersupplied. "Short-term, under current spread structures, changed global copper trade flows seem only a matter of time," Wang stated. Medium and long-term, the copper market's focus remains on copper ore supply conditions and demand outlook.
May 29, 2025 08:51On May 28 (Wednesday), Chile's National Copper Commission (Cochilco) raised its average copper price forecasts for this year and next, citing improved global prospects following a temporary tariff agreement between China and the US. The commission increased its average copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to $4.30 per pound, up from the previous estimate of $4.25 per pound in its February report. At a press conference, Cochilco's leadership expressed cautious optimism about the copper price outlook, while acknowledging that the global supply situation was tighter than expected and that demand fundamentals were strong. Cochilco stated that the agreement reached between the US and China earlier this month to reduce hefty tariffs for at least 90 days "significantly reduced trade barriers and eased tensions that had affected confidence and global trade dynamics." Cochilco also believes that long-term trends such as the energy transition, power grid expansion, EVs, and ESS will continue to support copper prices. In Q1, production increased at the world's largest copper producers, Codelco and Antofagasta Minerals. Cochilco reported that state-owned Codelco's production grew by 5.2% in April. Despite this, the increase in domestic production did not offset the global decline. Cochilco now expects global supply growth this year to be significantly lower than previously forecasted, at 1.3%, compared to the previous estimate of 4.7% growth. Victor Garay, Cochilco's Mining Market Coordinator, stated that in a market that is effectively balanced, any supply disruptions would directly impact prices. Additionally, Cochilco forecasts that Chile's copper production will increase by 3% this year and continue to rise by 3% in 2026, with an expected output of 5.84 million mt by then. The production guidance is lower than Cochilco's February forecasts, which projected growth rates of 4.6% for 2025 and 3.6% for 2026. Globally, Cochilco forecasts a copper supply deficit of 109,000 mt this year and a slight surplus of 19,000 mt in 2026, with demand expected to grow by 2.3% and 2.8% this year and next, respectively.
May 29, 2025 08:34Previously, the US implemented reciprocal tariffs, sparking market concerns that a potential disruption in trade chains could drag down economic growth and push up inflation. Risk assets were broadly sold off, and copper prices were not spared from the downturn. Subsequently, trade conflicts began to ease, and copper prices embarked on a path of recovery. However, it can be observed that SHFE copper faced significant resistance at the gap left by the sharp drop in early April, while support below was also strong, with futures prices fluctuating rangebound around the 78,000 yuan level. Why has SHFE copper been caught in a dilemma recently? Is there a possibility for futures prices to break out of the rangebound situation in the future? Uncertainty remains over the tariff grace period Recently, negotiations between the US and various countries have been underway. In particular, after the 90-day reciprocal tariffs between China and the US were reduced to 10%, the market briefly traded on the logic of easing tariff tensions. However, the progress of some negotiations has been slow. Recently, Trump's attitude shifted, and he again proposed imposing tariffs on the EU. The market is also concerned about the possibility of renewed trade frictions after the tariff grace period. The positive impact of the short-term tariff easing has largely been priced in, making it difficult to provide further support for market sentiment. In addition, to divert attention from domestic contradictions such as the massive scale of debt, it is difficult for the US to restore tariffs on other countries to pre-2024 levels, and concerns about the economic growth outlook cannot be easily allayed. Judging from the recently released US economic data, the impact of tariff disruptions has so far been limited. US inflation in April was lower than expected, and the monthly rate of retail sales rose by 0.1%, exceeding expectations. The Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for May also exceeded expectations. However, the issue of the US's high debt burden still persists, with a significant amount of US debt maturing in June. Recently, Trump's tax cut bill narrowly passed the House of Representatives, and the market continues to worry about the US's mounting debt. The impact of tariff increases on the economy also remains to be tracked. Mining-side processing fees remain at extremely low levels, and the supply side appears somewhat fragile Since last year, tight ore supply has been a major factor plaguing the copper market. However, except for the news in March this year that Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group would carry out production cuts and maintenance, the production of domestic smelters has largely not been constrained by tight ore supply and extremely low processing fees. Therefore, against the backdrop of steady to increasing production in the smelting sector, the issue of tight ore supply alone is unlikely to provide a substantial boost to copper prices. However, it cannot be overlooked that the current spot processing fees for domestic copper concentrates have fallen below -$40/dmt, and the annual and quarterly processing fees negotiated between domestic smelters and overseas miners are increasingly lower. Recently, the market has focused its attention on the mid-year negotiations between global copper mining giant Antofagasta and Chinese and Japanese smelters. Previously, sources revealed that due to tight copper concentrate supply, smelters may request a "zero-dollar" processing fee, or even a negative value, for the second half of 2025. If the rumors are true, the output of by-products such as sulphuric acid may not be sufficient to offset the losses, undoubtedly exacerbating the production pressure on domestic small and medium-sized smelters. Meanwhile, there have been more disruptions in overseas mining operations. Last Tuesday, Ivanhoe Mines announced that mining operations at its Kakula underground mine within the Kamoa-Kakula copper mining area in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) had been temporarily suspended, primarily due to the impact of an earthquake. Its Phase I and II beneficiation plants continue to operate at low capacity using surface ore stockpiles, while operations at the Kamoa mine and Phase III beneficiation plant remain unaffected. Kamoa-Kakula is a world-class, large-scale, ultra-high-grade copper mine. The Phase I mine, with a capacity of 6 million mt/year, was constructed at Kakula, while Phase II utilizes existing facilities at the Kansoko mine to increase capacity to 12 million mt/year. In the evening of May 23, Zijin Mining, another major investor in the mine, also issued an announcement, stating that the earthquake is expected to adversely affect the achievement of the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine's annual planned production, with the specific extent of the impact requiring further assessment based on the investigation results. Overall, due to the faster expansion of global smelters, the copper ore supply tightness is relatively severe and is unlikely to ease significantly in the short term. Against the backdrop of strong bargaining power of miners, the copper concentrate TCs negotiated by smelters are becoming increasingly lower, with the possibility of approaching zero. In the early stage, smelters adjusted their operations through measures such as long-term contracts, supplementing with other raw materials, and offsetting profits with by-products such as sulphuric acid, maintaining overall stable production. Recently, during the concentrated maintenance period of the year, there are still few maintenance plans among domestic smelters, and there has been no significant production cut due to ore shortages. Going forward, attention should still be paid to the long-term contract levels of copper concentrate TCs negotiated between overseas miners and domestic smelters. Before the ore supply tightness can be transmitted to the smelting end, it will still be difficult to provide more upward momentum for copper prices. If smelters indeed undertake substantial production cuts, copper prices may experience a sharp increase. Social inventory of domestic copper cathode accumulates slightly, with expectations of weakening demand Recently, the performance of global copper visible inventories has been divergent. COMEX copper inventories have continued to rebound, rising from around 92,000 mt in early March to approximately 175,600 mt currently, reflecting the process of global copper flowing into the US amid expectations of a possible tariff hike on imported copper by the US. Correspondingly, LME copper inventories have been continuously pulling back, declining from around 260,000 mt in early March to approximately 164,700 mt currently, with a significant destocking amplitude. The current price spread between COMEX copper and LME copper remains at a relatively high level. Before the implementation of copper-related tariffs by the US, global copper will continue to flow into the US due to the existence of profits. Domestically, the traditional peak season of "Golden March, Silver April" has passed. Coupled with the rebound of copper prices from low levels, the downstream demand in the domestic copper market has weakened compared to the previous period, and the destocking of social inventories of copper cathode in China has halted. However, overall, the extent of inventory buildup has been very limited so far, and the inflow of domestic inventories has also been influenced by the outflow of exchange warrants and the inflow of inventories from bonded areas. From the downstream industry data released this month, the high-growth momentum of power grid investment continues, and the State Grid Corporation of China's annual record-high target is relatively certain. This aspect of demand will continue to support copper prices. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, automobile production continued to increase YoY, and industry prosperity persisted. However, in April, the production of refrigerators and air conditioners both pulled back, indicating a potential weakening in demand in this sector. Overall, during the moratorium period, global trade frictions have eased compared to the previous period, but uncertainties in negotiations still persist. Moreover, against the backdrop of deglobalization, market concerns about the economic outlook are difficult to completely dispel, and the suppression at the previous gap still exists. On the supply and demand side, concerns about tight ore supplies have lingered for a long time, and recent disruptions at the ore end have increased again, continuously consolidating the downward support for copper prices. Additionally, the siphon effect of the US has also made it difficult for copper inventories in other regions to accumulate significantly. However, the output of copper cathode remains stable, and there are expectations of a marginal weakening in demand. Therefore, a breakout from the current stalemate in SHFE copper prices may require more definitive changes to occur.
May 26, 2025 18:26》Check SMM metal quotes, data, and market analysis 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot cargo On May 23, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$44.28/dmt, a decrease of $1.23/dmt from the previous -$43.05/dmt. The pricing coefficient for 20% grade domestic trade ore ranged from 93% to 95%. During the week, the LME conference reduced the activity of spot copper concentrate transactions and inquiries/offers. The tender results from Newmont were announced, with a winning bid price of -$80 for 20,000 mt of Red Chris copper ore, with shipment periods of July for 10,000 mt and November for 10,000 mt. The tender results for 10,000 mt of standard clean ore from a major miner to a smelter were also announced, with a winning bid price in the mid -$40s and a shipment period of July. A trader offered 10,000 mt of clean ore to a smelter, with an RC close to the mid -$40s and a shipment period of June. During the week, Antofagasta initiated the first round of mid-year long-term contract negotiations with Japanese smelters and will commence the first round of negotiations with Chinese smelters in the next period. The first round of negotiations will only involve the exchange of fundamental information. After a fire-related shutdown in October last year, Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter resumed operations ahead of schedule and is expected to start producing copper cathode in the fourth week of June and reach full capacity by December. In the past week, seismic activity occurred in the eastern section of the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine. Ivanhoe Mines stated that all employees had been safely evacuated with no injuries. On May 18, Ivanhoe Mines suspended underground mining operations at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine. Ivanhoe Mines indicated that seismic activity had significantly decreased in the past 24 hours, and operations might resume soon. Anglo Asian Mining's Gilar copper-gold mine at Gedabek in Azerbaijan has commenced production. The mine aims to extract 2,000 mt of ore per day. After steady growth, monthly ore production is expected to reach 50,000 to 60,000 mt. On May 23, the SMM copper concentrate inventory at nine ports was 780,300 mt, a decrease of 39,400 mt from the previous period. The main reduction came from Jinzhou Port, where copper concentrate inventory decreased by 38,000 mt WoW this week. 》Check the SMM metal industry chain database
May 23, 2025 14:44