This week, the weekly operating rate of China's leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises pulled back 0.5 percentage points WoW to 64.7%. The industry continued its weak recovery pattern, with divergence among segments intensifying.

China Northern Rare Earth disclosed its 2025 annual report on April 18, which stated: 2025 was a pivotal year for the reshaping of the global rare earth industry landscape, a pivotal year for the strategic elevation of China's rare earth industry, and a pivotal year for the company to achieve historic breakthroughs in its business development. Over the past year, the company implemented national industrial policies and enhanced its capacity to serve national strategies. Production of major products hit record highs , with operating revenue reaching 42.563 billion yuan, up 29.11% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm reaching 2.251 billion yuan, up 124.17% YoY. The company maintained its industry-leading position in revenue, profit, output value, and market capitalization, successfully concluding the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. It effectively safeguarded the security and stability of China's rare earth industry chain and supply chain, and elevated China's rare earth industry to a new level of high-quality development. The explanation of operating revenue changes disclosed in China Northern Rare Earth's announcement stated: In 2025, amid an overall rise in rare earth market prices, the company seized market opportunities and coordinated the advancement of the "Five Unifications" scientific production model. Production and sales of major products, including smelting and separation products, rare earth metals, rare earth new materials, and rare earth permanent magnet motors, all achieved YoY growth. The main business disclosed in China Northern Rare Earth's 2025 annual report stated: Adhering to the development philosophy of "optimizing and expanding rare earth raw materials, refining and strengthening rare earth new materials, and specializing and differentiating end-use application products," the company is capable of producing 11 major categories, over 100 varieties, and more than 1,000 specifications of rare earth products. The company's products are mainly divided into rare earth raw material products, rare earth new material products, and rare earth end-use application products. Among them, the company's rare earth raw material products include rare earth salts, rare earth oxides, and rare earth metals, which serve as the primary raw materials for downstream rare earth new material and new material product processing enterprises. Rare earth new material products include rare earth magnetic materials, polishing materials, hydrogen storage materials, catalytic materials, and rare earth alloys. The company's rare earth end-use application products mainly include rare earth permanent magnet high-efficiency energy-saving motors, solid-state hydrogen storage cylinders, and hydrogen-powered two-wheelers. Regarding the business plan for 2026, China Northern Rare Earth stated in its 2025 annual report: 2026 is the opening year of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period and a critical year for the company to advance high-quality development and accelerate its transformation into a world-class leading rare earth enterprise. The company will adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, take forging a strong sense of community for the Chinese nation as the main theme, fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and its successive plenary sessions, implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speeches and instructions on Inner Mongolia and the rare earth industry, as well as the decisions and deployments of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Baotou Municipality, and other higher-level authorities. The company will maintain the general principle of seeking progress while ensuring stability, fully and accurately implement the new development philosophy, shoulder its responsibilities and mission, steadily improve operational quality and efficiency, build a comprehensive all-element and all-category industrial system, promote the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, accelerate the pace of deepening reform, enhance the level of modern governance, continuously strengthen core functions and enhance core competitiveness, accelerate the building of a world-class leading rare earth enterprise, achieve a good start for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, and make new and greater contributions to the construction of the "two rare earth bases." Key production and operating targets for 2026 (these targets are planning targets only; whether they can ultimately be achieved is subject to uncertainty and do not constitute substantive commitments by the Company to investors; investors and relevant parties should maintain sufficient risk awareness and understand the differences between plans, forecasts, and commitments): achieve operating revenue of over 44 billion yuan and total profit of over 3.5 billion yuan. On the premise of meeting operating targets, ensure that employee income moves in tandem with the enterprise's economic performance and labor productivity. Centering on the work targets, the following key initiatives will be carried out: 1. Stabilize production, promote sales, and improve quality and efficiency, demonstrating a new outlook of a strong start. Based on the national rare earth total volume control indicators, organize and arrange production schedules scientifically. Make every effort to ensure stable and high output from Phase I of the green smelting upgrade and renovation project. Enhance the capability of full-element rare earth extraction and separation. Optimize rare earth metal production processes to improve product quality and capacity scale. Release newly added magnetic material alloy capacity, with per-mt product costs reaching industry-leading levels. The polishing segment will leverage resource and capacity advantages, implement transformation toward high-end and precision products, and enhance product competitiveness. Rare earth additives will focus on high value-added product development to ensure stable product supply. Monitor mainstream product price trends and maintain market stability. Achieve production-sales balance for rare earth lanthanum-cerium products while actively digesting inventories. Strengthen procurement and sales channel development for rare earth Pr-Nd products to enhance market control. The functional materials segment will seize policy and market opportunities to secure orders. Rare earth permanent magnet motors will target frontier fields to achieve new breakthroughs in sales. Refine cost management and implement comprehensive measures to deepen cost reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement. Optimize financing methods to provide low-cost funding support for the Company's development. 2. Optimize layout and add momentum, shaping new advantages in industrial development. Efficiently advance the construction of key projects and accelerate the construction of Phase II of the green smelting upgrade and renovation project. Promote the Northern Jinlong separation production line to achieve trial production within the year. Promote stable and smooth production at the Jinmeng rare earth secondary resource project. Build a full-category industrial system and accelerate the implementation of joint venture and cooperation projects. Promote stable production and full production at the Northern Magnetic Material digital green technology empowerment project, and expand segmented application fields of rare earth permanent magnet materials. Strengthen the promotion and application of solid-state hydrogen storage materials and expand new applications in the rare earth catalysis field. Enhance the level of digital and intelligent management, deepen the construction of information management and control systems, continue to advance the in-depth application of business systems such as human resources, discipline inspection, and engineering projects, and further consolidate the digital form of business operations. Build a procurement-sales collaborative management platform to form a closed-loop business process covering "procurement, production, inventory, sales, and finance," achieving business-finance integration. Advance the construction of green smelting smart factories, progressively cultivate major production units to build smart factories, and continuously improve the CNC rate of key processes and the digitalization rate of production equipment. 3. Coordinating internal and external efforts to tackle key challenges, empowering innovation to seek new breakthroughs. Increase high-quality scientific and technological supply and strengthen R&D investment intensity. Focus on project deployment and research breakthroughs in areas such as cost reduction in smelting and separation, quality improvement in metal electrolysis, development of new rare earth materials, and expansion of new rare earth applications, developing new products, new processes, and new equipment. Conduct high-value patent cultivation and standards development and revision in key areas across the entire industry chain. Improve the "1+2+N+4" rare earth industry technology innovation platform system, launch high-level rare earth innovation platform projects, and comprehensively optimize and integrate technology innovation resources. Further leverage the role of the industrial transformation center, streamline the pathway for commercializing research outcomes, and enhance the quality and efficiency of technology transfer. Deepen the integration of industry, academia, and research, and promote the establishment of joint laboratories with renowned universities in China. Carry out "Three Firsts" application work in areas such as NdFeB alloy production equipment, rare earth permanent magnet motors, rare earth polishing fluids, and rare earth functional additives, and achieve substantive results. Further leverage the functions of the company's collaborative innovation centers across various industrial sectors, strengthen resource coordination and centralized management, and implement organized research. Focus on tackling key common technologies, promote close interaction and coordinated development among subsidiaries, and drive the output and transfer incubation of major scientific and technological achievements. Introduce the technology readiness level evaluation system into the entire R&D management process to establish quantitative assessment channels. Continue to strengthen the recruitment and cultivation of scientific and technological talent, providing full support in terms of compensation, research funding, and living benefits. 4. Deepening and substantiating reforms to stimulate new vitality in enterprise development. Enhance the company's management and control effectiveness, improve the board of directors' construction and authorization system, explore the formulation of management systems for the performance of duties by full-time and part-time chairpersons, and elevate the board's standardized performance and scientific decision-making capabilities. Optimize the company's management and control matters, processes, and authorities to improve decision-making efficiency. Promote the optimization and integration of subsidiaries. Implement the requirements of the "doubling" initiative for specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative enterprises, and cultivate additional such enterprises. Deepen the reform of the three systems, improve the cadre assessment and evaluation system, and strengthen the rigid implementation of assessment results. Optimize the selection and appointment mechanism, intensify competitive recruitment and market-oriented hiring, implement "3+6" contract-based management, and firmly establish a talent selection orientation that prioritizes actual performance and practical contributions. Closely align with the company's development and actual business needs, scientifically evaluate organizational structures, reasonably reduce management layers, and enhance management effectiveness. Leverage new projects and production lines to establish shared employment mechanisms, promoting dynamic position integration and workforce optimization. Deepen the reform of the compensation distribution system, build a "same-level, broad-grade" compensation system based on position value and performance contributions, strengthen the linkage between subsidiary performance and the company's overall profitability, and drive a close connection between employee income and enterprise profitability as well as individual contributions. 5. Striving for Excellence in Management to Elevate Modern Governance to New Heights. Strengthened strategic security management, enhanced information resource integration, and actively participated in the formulation of national industrial policies. Strengthened financial management by rigorously implementing comprehensive budget management, further reinforcing capital control, and establishing a capital risk prevention and control system. Enhanced financial informatization by building a standardized, efficient, and well-adapted financial shared services system. Strengthened risk and compliance management by improving the compliance management system to ensure that business development and compliance management advanced in tandem. Established a legal affairs shared system to reduce legal service costs for subsidiaries and strengthen the company's overall legal risk prevention and control capabilities. Improved the comprehensive risk management system and optimized risk management across the entire process of strategy, operations, and management. Strengthened safety and environmental protection management, guided by the "10000" safety vision, to enhance intrinsic safety levels. Effectively carried out safety management of relevant parties. Rigorously implemented environmental protection accountability, improved integrated traceability management of solid waste across production, sales, transportation, and utilization, and enhanced emergency response capabilities. Strengthened talent management by reinforcing training and empowerment, implementing targeted training by level and category, and improving the competency of key personnel. Deepened specialized cultivation of high-level talent and strengthened the deep integration of talent development with the company's strategic growth. Innovated the training model for industrial workers, built a platform for skills inheritance and innovation, simultaneously consolidated talent reserves, optimized talent structure, and enhanced talent effectiveness. Strengthened market capitalization management by establishing a scientific market capitalization management philosophy, improving the ESG management system, and comprehensively leveraging measures such as information disclosure, investor relations management, cash dividends, mergers and acquisitions, and ESG on the basis of enhancing the company's value creation capabilities, to improve market capitalization management performance and maintain the company's position as the largest by market capitalization in the rare earth industry. When discussing potential risks, China Northern Rare Earth mentioned product price risk: Affected by internal and external factors such as macro economic conditions, cyclical industry fluctuations, changes in rare earth market supply and demand, intensified market competition, and geopolitical disruptions, prices of major rare earth products may fluctuate and decline, posing product price risk. Countermeasures: The company will closely monitor market conditions, strengthen market forecasting and analysis, innovate marketing models, adjust marketing strategies, improve product quality, vigorously expand markets, and increase product market share. While maintaining and expanding the marketing base for Pr-Nd products, the company will intensify marketing efforts for La-Ce products, optimize service quality, and improve client satisfaction. Leveraging the role of a major rare earth group, the company will stabilize confidence, stabilize expectations, and stabilize market operations, adopting comprehensive measures to overcome unfavourable factors and striving to mitigate the impact of product price risk on the company's operating performance. Looking back at the SMM Pr-Nd oxide price trend in 2025: the average price of Pr-Nd oxide on December 31, 2025 was 606,500 yuan/mt, compared with the average price of 398,000 yuan/mt on December 31, 2024, representing an increase of 52.39% in 2025. In comparison, the annual daily average price of Pr-Nd oxide in 2025 was 491,576.13 yuan/mt versus 391,871.9 yuan/mt in 2024, indicating a YoY increase of 25.45% in the daily average price in 2025. Driven by expectations of supply reduction due to partial shutdowns at separation plants, upstream suppliers raised their quotes rapidly, low-priced spot cargo in the market tightened quickly, pushing rare earth prices up for three consecutive days. According to SMM pricing, on April 20, the price of Pr-Nd oxide was 815,000-818,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 816,500 yuan/mt, up 1.74% from the previous trading day. As the price of Pr-Nd oxide rose, wait-and-see sentiment in the market intensified, while downstream magnetic material enterprises had limited acceptance of high-priced metals, and purchasing enthusiasm declined. In the short term, supported by strong confidence among upstream suppliers to hold prices firm, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to hover at highs. For more information on rare earth fundamentals, technical aspects, and policy developments, please attend the ~ SMM Rare Earth Forum Contact: Wang Haiqiao Contact: 19818727891

According to the latest data from SMM Customs, imports of SMM hydrometallurgy intermediate products in March 2026 reached 171,240 mt in physical terms, up 37% MoM and up 1.4% YoY. By country, the main incremental volumes this month came from hydrometallurgy intermediate products imported from Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, and New Caledonia.

[SMM Analysis] Why Has LME Lead Shifted Back to Backwardation for the First Time in Nearly a Year? SMM, April 21 — Since late March, London lead prices have stabilized after bottoming out, gradually holding above the $1,900/mt level and entering an upward trend, attempting to approach the $2,000/mt mark.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, SMM statistics showed that China's SiMn and FeMn exports in March 2026 totaled 6,161.003 mt, up 213.48% MoM and up 579.32% YoY. Total SiMn and FeMn exports from China from January to March reached 10,665.897 mt, up 116.0% YoY. In March, China's SiMn market first saw a cost rise, which laid the foundation for firm export offers and increased export willingness among enterprises.

[SMM Tungsten Daily Review: Weakening Long-Term Contract Support in Tungsten Market, Industry Chain Continued to Fluctuate Downward] SMM April 21: China's spot tungsten market continued to fluctuate downward today. Major mines primarily fulfilled long-term contracts, while spot orders were hard to come by. Prices of tungsten smelting products, tungsten powder, and recycled materials were generally under pressure. Market pessimism spread further. Profit-taking accumulated from earlier high prices continued to be released, compounded by shrinking industry orders in downstream cemented carbide and cutting tool sectors. End-user procurement nearly came to a standstill. The market remained in a state of unrelenting upstream selling pressure and declining downstream buying volumes, with the overall trading sentiment staying sluggish.

Conclusion first: cobalt prices in H2 are more likely to rise than fall. Any disruption from external factors could further exacerbate tight supply, thereby pushing cobalt prices higher. Most Chinese-invested miners own self-built smelters or have cross-shareholding and long-term close cooperative relationships with downstream enterprises. Therefore, the DRC export quotas obtained by Chinese-invested companies will be delivered to China's downstream market in a timely and stable manner. We calculate the quotas of Chinese-invested and foreign-invested companies separately. I. Based on current market conditions, we make the following assumptions: 1. DRC shipment pace: maintaining current efficiency. It is expected that in July this year, goods from 25Q4 and 26Q1 will arrive at ports successively; by the end of 2026, goods from 26Q2-3 will arrive in batches. 2. Indonesian MHP supply: even with disruptions from external factors such as Middle East geopolitical conflicts, cobalt supply from Indonesian MHP will at least not decline YoY. Total cobalt imports from MHP in 2025 were 53,000 mt in metal content, and 2026 is expected to be no less than 53,000 mt in metal content. 3. China recycling volume: annualized based on enterprise recycling volumes in 26Q1. Monthly ternary cobalt recycling volume is expected to be no less than 1,000 mt in metal content, and high-cobalt recycling volume no less than 1,500 mt in metal content. 4. Raw material supply structure: intermediate product supply directed to ternary cathode is expected to decline to approximately 7,000 mt in metal content in H2 2026; no major shifts in other existing supply structures. 5. China inventory buffer: current upstream and downstream enterprise raw material inventories can sustain supply through June this year. Before intermediate products arrive in bulk during June-July, no supply disruption will occur across the market. Moreover, apart from refined cobalt, other raw materials no longer have large inventories. II. Supply and Demand 1. Ternary sector: Demand side: full-year 2026 ternary cobalt demand is estimated at 58,000 mt in metal content. Supply side: cobalt imports from MHP in 2026 at 53,000 mt in metal content; ternary cobalt recycling at approximately 12,000 mt in metal content; intermediate product supply to ternary in H2 2026 at 7,000 mt in metal content. 2. LCO, cathode additives, and cobalt powder: Demand side: total full-year 2026 demand for LCO, cathode additives, and cobalt powder is estimated at 81,000 mt in metal content. H1 is primarily focused on digesting inventories and high-cobalt recycling, with H2 (July-December) demand at approximately 42,000 mt in metal content. Supply side (H2): non-DRC quota sources combined with high-cobalt recycling are expected to provide at least 12,000 mt in metal content; from DRC export intermediate products, counting only the Chinese-invested enterprise portion, approximately 40,000 mt in metal content can be supplied. Total H2 supply is approximately 52,000 mt in metal content. 3. Refined Cobalt Rigid demand production: certain downstream industries have rigid demand for refined cobalt, consuming approximately 400 mt in metal content of intermediate products per month for refined cobalt production, with all raw materials being intermediate products. This volume is not high overall but remains stable. Inventory impact: under the high-priced intermediate product environment, the current large inventory of refined cobalt will have a significant impact on the production side. Therefore, we currently calculate based primarily on rigid demand production. 4. Chemicals Industries such as feed and adhesives have relatively stable monthly demand for cobalt hydroxide. On average, monthly demand is approximately 1,000 mt in metal content, with raw materials primarily being MHP. Considering all the above, inventory buildup by the end of 2026 is 8,000 mt in metal content for MHP and 7,000 mt in metal content for intermediate products. Miner behavior: some miners are currently purchasing intermediate products on the market at relatively high prices, close to or reaching the level of $26/lb. Judging from this behavior, market participants generally have expectations for the H2 market, and the likelihood of selling at low prices is relatively small. III. Future Expectations Based on the above supply-demand balance analysis, whether on the upstream supply or downstream demand side, any shortfall in supply versus expectations or any recovery in downstream demand will impact the current fragile balance, at which point foreign-invested goods will need to enter the market to supplement supply. Therefore, the overall tone for the 2026 cobalt market is considered to be more likely to rise than fall. Wang Zhaoyu 15927163529

According to the latest data from China Customs, China's total nickel sulphate imports in March 2026 reached 6,530 mt in metal content, up 17% MoM and up 61% YoY. China's nickel sulphate exports totaled 114 mt in metal content, up 249% MoM and up 31% YoY. Net imports of nickel sulphate in March 2026 stood at 6,416 mt in metal content, up 16% MoM and up 62% YoY. By country, exports to Japan rose this month, driving total exports higher. On the import side, imports from Indonesia, South Korea and other countries increased this month. Although imports from Finland pulled back, total imports still posted notable growth. Net imports of nickel salts rose this month, largely in line with last month's expectations.

SMM Analysis: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 68,800 mt of copper anode (HS code: 74020000) in March 2026, up 20.97% MoM and up 37.10% YoY...

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has delivered a direct and material external shock to Southeast Asia’s energy supply structure. Solar (PV) is emerging as the main alternative for reducing exposure to fossil fuel price volatility. However, the structural tension between accelerating PV penetration and entrenched electricity market models will be the decisive factor governing the region’s energy transition pace.