SMM News, April 30: According to SMM statistics, China’s primary aluminum output in April 2026 (30 days) rose by 1.7% year-on-year and fell by 2.9% month-on-month. As the traditional peak consumption season continues, demand from downstream sectors including aluminum sheet, strip & foil and aluminum wires & cables has formed effective support. The domestic liquid aluminum ratio edged up moderately, rising by 1.7 percentage points month-on-month to 75.3% in April. The overall performance was slightly below early-month expectations, mainly dragged by weaker-than-anticipated orders for aluminum profiles. Based on SMM’s liquid aluminum ratio calculation data, domestic primary aluminum ingot output in April dropped by 3.4% year-on-year and 9.0% month-on-month. Capacity Changes: As of late April, China’s commissioned primary aluminum capacity surveyed by SMM stood at approximately 46.209 million tons, showing no month-on-month changes. Output Forecast: In May 2026, the liquid aluminum production ratio among domestic primary aluminum producers will operate in a differentiated pattern. Overall, with the recovery of overseas market demand, export orders for domestic aluminum fabricated products are expected to keep improving, supporting a mild rebound in the liquid aluminum ratio. comprehensively, the liquid aluminum ratio is projected to increase by 0.5 percentage points to 75.8%.

On April 26, Hao Mei New Material announced that in order to improve its global layout, the company plans to invest in establishing a subsidiary in Morocco and building a new aluminum profile production base with its Hong Kong subsidiary Hao Mei Aluminum Products as the investment entity. The total investment of this project is not more than 510 million yuan, and the source of funds is self-owned and self-raised funds, mainly used for land purchase, factory construction and operating working capital. After the completion of the project, it is expected to form a production capacity of about 44,000 tons of aluminum profiles per year, covering the light weight of automobiles, building and industrial aluminum profiles. The matter has been deliberated and approved by the Sixth Meeting of the Fi

Recently, the groundbreaking ceremony for Anhui Yuqing Precision Industry Co., Ltd.'s project to produce 300,000 lightweight structural components for new energy vehicles annually was held in Ma'anshan Economic and Technological Development Zone. Upon completion, the project will achieve an annual production capacity of 300,000 lightweight structural components for new energy vehicles, focusing on the core needs of the new energy vehicle industry and contributing to the lightweighting and energy-saving development of automobiles. The project mainly uses aluminum profiles and cutting fluid as raw materials, balancing capacity and quality to create an efficient, intelligent, and green production base.

March 16, Yongzhen Co., Ltd. issued an announcement stating that the company plans to invest 480 million yuan to implement a "Technical Upgrading Project for the Annual Production of 70,000 Tons of Ultra-Wide Thin-Wall Flat Extruded Aluminum Profiles and Their Deep-Processed Products" at its existing plant in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province. The project has a construction period of 12 months and is expected to commence on March 25. Through technological upgrades to the existing production lines, the company will achieve an annual production capacity of 70,000 tons of ultra-wide thin-walled flat extruded profiles. 40,000 tons of profiles will be used for deep processing, ultimately forming an annual production capacity of 40,000 tons of deep-processed products for new energy applications.

SMM, February 28th， Driven by the global clean energy transition, the energy storage industry is achieving steady growth. Its core value lies in effectively mitigating the inherent intermittency and volatility of renewable energy sources like wind and solar power, providing critical assurance for stable clean electricity output. This development trend will sustainably drive demand for key metals across the energy storage supply chain. As one of the core materials, aluminum applications in energy storage systems primarily focus on aluminum sheets, strips, foils, and extrusions. I. Scale of Aluminum Consumption in ESS According to SMM calculations, each 1GWh energy storage system consumes approximately 1,780 tons of aluminum , of which aluminum extrusions account for about 44%, aluminum sheets and strips account for about 39%, and aluminum foil accounts for about 18%. From the perspective of industry growth drivers, global energy storage cell production is entering a period of rapid growth: According to SMM estimates, the global demand for energy storage cells will be approximately 559 GWh in 2025, and is expected to reach 779 GWh in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of 39%; even as the base expands, the annual demand from 2027 to 2030 will still maintain a growth rate of over 20%. In terms of aluminum demand, Chinese enterprises dominate the energy storage market, driving increased domestic aluminum consumption. SMM research indicates China's energy storage battery cabinet shipments will reach approximately 400GWh in 2025, accounting for over 80% of global share. Based on SMM's calculation of 1,780 tons of aluminum per GWh for energy storage systems and global battery cabinet shipments, the global aluminum demand for energy storage systems in 2025 will reach 850,000 tons, with China consuming approximately 710,000 tons. Domestic demand for aluminum in energy storage is projected to increase by 280,000 tons in 2026. However, it should be noted that with the continuous iteration of large-cell technology, the unit consumption of aluminum structural components in energy storage systems has room for reduction. In the long term, there is still potential for optimizing aluminum consumption per unit. II. Calculation of Aluminum Profile Materials per Unit of ESS Due to design variations across different energy storage products, this section separates aluminum consumption calculations for energy storage cells from other system components . 1.Core Application Scenarios of Aluminum Materials in EES Aluminum materials, with advantages such as lightweight, corrosion resistance, and excellent processing performance, have been deeply integrated into the core components of ESS, with their main applications concentrated in three major areas: Energy Storage Cell Component: Primarily used for cell aluminum foil, aluminum casings, and tabs. Pack Component : Primarily used for battery trays, liquid cooling plates, battery end plates, and battery enclosures, etc. Energy Storage System Component: Main applications include energy storage system enclosures, radiators, etc. 2.Aluminum Consumption in Energy Storage Cells Aluminum usage in energy storage cells primarily involves battery foil, aluminum casings, and tabs. Currently, the aluminum consumption per cell is approximately 615t/GWh, with aluminum foil accounting for 300-330 t/GWh. 3.Aluminum Consumption in ESS Due to variations in technical approaches and application scenarios, different manufacturers employ distinct design solutions for energy storage systems. When calculating aluminum consumption, we use industry average values: In industrial, commercial, and residential energy storage projects, each rack is on average configured with 4.5 battery packs. In grid-side energy storage projects, each rack averages 8 battery packs, with each system containing an average of 12 rack. The aluminum components of the battery pack include the tray, liquid cooling plate, box body, and end plate. The structure of the battery tray is similar to that of new energy vehicle battery trays, but the product specifications are smaller and the cross-sectional design is more simplified. SMM calculates the aluminum consumption of a single battery pack based on the average weight data of components provided by mainstream aluminum production enterprises. In addition, the core equipment of the energy storage system, the power conversion system (PCS), and its supporting radiator also need to consume aluminum materials.While aluminum enclosures exist for ESS, market research indicates steel enclosures currently dominate the market, with aluminum enclosures holding less than 20% market share. The weight range per unit is from several hundred kilograms to 2 tons. Based on the above parameter calculations: the comprehensive aluminum consumption of industrial, commercial, and residential energy storage systems is 2030 tons/GWh,while for grid-side energy storage systems it is 1,720 tons/GWh. Weighted by the shipment share of different energy storage system types, the final comprehensive aluminum consumption for energy storage systems is calculated as 1,780 t/GWh. 4.Consumption Structure of Aluminum Materials in Energy Storage Systems From a production process perspective, the manufacturing methods for core components such as aluminum casings and liquid cooling plates encompass multiple pathways including sheet metal stamping, profile processing, and casting. This section breaks down the consumption structure of aluminum material categories in energy storage systems based on the proportion of mainstream process applications: aluminum extrusions account for approximately 44%, aluminum sheets and strips account for approximately 39%, and aluminum foil accounts for approximately 18%.

【SMM Aluminium Flash News】On September 17th, a ceremony was held in Suzhou High-tech Zone to celebrate the launch of Raufos' new Suzhou production line and the start of mass production of Li Auto spring arms. This fully automated aluminum control arm extrusion line produces rear axle spring arms, a key lightweighting solution for Li Auto's new models. Production is expected to reach 1.17 million units in 2026, with installation on 585,000 vehicles. Upon full production, revenue is expected to increase by approximately 200 million yuan. Raufos Group, headquartered in Norway, specializes in the development and manufacture of lightweight aluminum chassis components for the automotive industry.

At 17:00 on April 18, 2025, the AICE2025 SMM 20th Aluminum Industry Conference & Aluminum Industry Expo (hereinafter referred to as "AICE Aluminum Industry Expo") successfully concluded at the Suzhou International Expo Center! What were the exciting highlights at the AICE 2025 Aluminum Industry Expo? Today, Xiao A brings you an exclusive "Post-Exhibition Report," using hardcore data to comprehensively and multi-dimensionally recreate the splendid moments of this aluminum industry feast! AICE: Clients Within Reach 01 AICE's lineup of exhibitors... 02 AICE Exhibitor Analysis 03 AICE Exhibitors' Voices 04 AICE Analysis of Domestic Visitors This year's domestic visitors covered 27 provinces across the country, with Jiangsu Province having the most visitors, accounting for 34.77%. The top 10 provinces for domestic visitors were: Jiangsu, Shanghai, Henan, Shandong, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hebei, and Shanxi. The main business types of professional visitors were processing, end-users, trading, and equipment. Among them, processing accounted for the largest proportion at 23.34%. Professional visitors with decision-making or purchasing authority accounted for over 51.42%. 05 What are the benefits of visiting AICE? 06 Review of AICE Concurrent Forums 07 AICE's Interactive Highlights! AICE Shining Brightly! The AICE 2025 Glory Ceremony 2025 SMM China Aluminum Industry Meritorious Figures Rising Star Award Huang Kaiju, Shanghai Giant Alloy Materials Recycling Co., Ltd. Kuang Manxing, Guangdong Hongjin New Materials Group Co., Ltd. Huang Fen, Fen'an Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. Pan Baowen, Guangdong GoldEx Light Alloy Co., Ltd. Cornerstone Award Cheng Shuai, CSMET Group Cui Lixin, Shandong Innovation Group Co., Ltd. Shen Jianguo, Yongjie New Materials Co., Ltd. Li Wei, Henan Shenhuo Group Co., Ltd. Huo Bin, Yidian Holding Group Co., Ltd. Shangmei Network/Shangqing Times Metal Information Consulting (Beijing) Co., Ltd. Dong Chunming Taishan Award Peng Baotai, Jiangxi Baotai Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. Ma Tingyi, Henan Mingtai Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. Wang Zhenjian, Chongqing Shunbo Aluminum Alloy Co., Ltd. Lifetime Achievement Award Wang Zitao, Lw Aluminum Processing Technology Center Yuan Yongda, Shanghai Aluminum Industry Association Wen Xianjun, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Shandong Aluminum Industry Association Li Shilong, China Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance for Resources Recycling Industry (CIAR) Zhang Shangen, Suzhou Die Casting Association Lu Jiyan, Guangdong (Nanhai) Aluminum Processing Industry Alliance 2025 SMM Top 20 China Aluminum Scrap Suppliers Double Win Industries INC Aleris Renewable Resources (Tianjin) Co., Ltd. Foshan Haoyi Metal Materials Co., Ltd. Foshan Xinshenghao Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. Guangdong Sunrise Heavy Rising Metal Import & Export Co., Ltd. Kunshan Tenglin Material Recycling Co., Ltd. Nan'an Quanli Metal Co., Ltd. Ningbo Chengyuan Metal Co., Ltd. Ningbo Gongyi Alloy Materials Co., Ltd. Ningbo Jinmai Lvyi Metal Materials Co., Ltd. Ningbo Jinxin Trading Co., Ltd. Ningbo Qilin Metal Materials Technology Co., Ltd. Ningbo Tongsheng New Materials Co., Ltd. Qingyuan Yuxiang Metal Technology Co., Ltd. Shantou Fujiu Renewable Resources Recycling Co., Ltd. Shanghai Humin Renewable Resources Co., Ltd. Shanghai Giant Alloy Materials Recycling Co., Ltd. Tianjin Sinone Renewable Resource Co., Ltd. Zhejiang Sansheng Metal Technology Co., Ltd. Zhejiang Zhelv New Energy Co., Ltd. 2025 SMM Top 20 China Aluminum Alloy Ingot Traders Chixin Supply Chain Management (Guangdong) Co., Ltd. Foshan Xiangneng Dazheng Trading Co., Ltd. Foshan Xinshenghao Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. Meiyin Ruijing (Ningbo) Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. Ningbo Donghui International Trade Co., Ltd. Ningbo Haitian Tongchuang Industrial Co., Ltd. Ningbo Kaitong Industry Co., Ltd. Ningbo Yingbang Import & Export Co., Ltd. Ningbo Xinglu Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. Xiamen Heyu Trading Co., Ltd. Shanghai Sanquan Industrial Co., Ltd. Shanghai Wurui Metal Group Co., Ltd. Shangkuang Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. Shendiao (Ningbo) Metal Trading Co., Ltd. Suzhou Jintian Import & Export Co., Ltd. Wuxi Shijiu Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. Wuchan Zhongda International Group Co., Ltd. CSIC Material Trade Group Guangzhou Co., Ltd. Zhongshan Hongfa Metal Co., Ltd. Zhongshan Zhichen Metal Materials Co., Ltd. 2025 SMM Glow of Nonferrous Metals Five Years Together, Weathering Storms and Sailing Side by Side; Five Consecutive Years of Hand-in-Hand Cooperation and Seamless Collaboration We would like to express our sincerest gratitude to the following companies for their unwavering support and sincere collaboration over the past five years. We look forward to continuing to work together in the future and embarking on new journeys! Anhui Huachuang Environmental Protection Equipment Technology Co., Ltd. Baoding Anbaoneng Metallurgical Equipment Co., Ltd. Ta Cheng Metal (Holdings) Limited Dongyang Meichen Industry and Trade Co., Ltd. Fen'an Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. Fuzhou Metallurgical New High Temperature Materials Co., Ltd. Gränges Aluminium (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. Guangdong Hongbang Metal Aluminum Co., Ltd. Guangdong Hongjin New Materials Group Co., Ltd. Guangdong Jianmei Aluminum Profile Factory (Group) Co., Ltd. Guangdong GoldEx Light Alloy Co., Ltd. Guangdong Juchen Equipment Technology Co., Ltd. Press Metal International Ltd. Hebei New Lizhong Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. Hubei Xinjinyang Resources Group Co., Ltd. Hunan InnoChina Advanced Materials Co., Ltd. Jiangsu Dingsheng New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. Jiangsu Haiguang Metal Co., Ltd. Jiangsu Yatai Light Alloy Technology Co., Ltd. Jiangxi Baotai Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. Jiangxi Jinli Urban Mining Co., Ltd. Kin Kiu Aluminum Group Calderys Refractories (China) Co., Ltd. Lanxi Boyuan Metal Co., Ltd. Luoyang Longding Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. Nantong Zhongfu New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. Xiamen Xiashun Aluminum Foil Co., Ltd. Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Holdings Co., Ltd. Shandong Lixin New Materials Co., Ltd. Shanxi Keyuan Carbon Co., Ltd. Shanghai Giant Alloy Materials Recycling Co., Ltd. Suzhou Norida New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. Vesuvius Foundry Technologies (Jiangsu) Co., Ltd. Wenxi County Kailida Trading Co., Ltd. Wuxi Pinsheng Metal Products Co., Ltd. Wuxi City Lunsheng Materials Co., Ltd. Xuzhou Jieke Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. Xuzhou Tianyi Metal Flux Factory Xuzhou Yongsheng Metallurgical Materials Co., Ltd. Zhaoqing Southern Aluminum Recycling Co., Ltd. Zhejiang Lanwei Environmental Protection Technology and Equipment Co., Ltd. Zhongyi Fengjinyi (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. Zhongzhu New Materials Industry (Jiangsu) Co., Ltd. Chongqing Jiantao Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. Chongqing Shunbo Aluminum Alloy Co., Ltd. AICE 2026 SMM (21st) Aluminum Industry Conference & Aluminum Industry Expo See you next April!

On April 18, the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Expo, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi Technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. and Lezhi County Qianrun Investment Promotion Service Co., Ltd., and sponsored by Shangli County Keyuan Metallurgical Materials Co., Ltd., Press Metal International Ltd., Delta Metal (Holdings) Limited, Jinqiao Light Alloy Technology (Jiangmen) Co., Ltd., and other entities as forum title sponsors, Sunstone Development Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Jialang Industrial Co., Ltd. as forum co-organizers, and supported by various specially invited supporters, conference supporters, conference acknowledgment units, and media partners, successfully concluded at the Suzhou International Expo Center in Jiangsu!

In the era of global aluminum industry's vigorous development and profound transformation, the SMM Aluminum Industry Conference, organized by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., has always spared no effort to gather various forces and promote continuous breakthroughs in technological innovation, market expansion, and conceptual renewal in the aluminum industry. This year, the AICE SMM Aluminum Industry Expo celebrated its significant 20th anniversary. In the current complex environment of market fluctuations and accelerated industry transformation, the active participation of colleagues has effectively facilitated efficient communication across the upstream and downstream of the aluminum industry chain, injecting strong momentum for collaborative development. To express gratitude to the companies that have consistently supported the SMM Aluminum Industry Expo over the years and to honor the deep camaraderie and unreserved support, SMM has established the "Evergreen Medal of the Light of Nonferrous Metals" and will award the "2025 SMM Evergreen Medal of the Light of Nonferrous Metals" to the following companies at the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference and Expo, co-hosted by SMM, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Trading Center, and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., and co-organized by Zhongyi Fengjinyi (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. and Lezhi Qianrun Investment Service Co., Ltd. This is to commemorate this precious journey of cooperation and to commend the outstanding contributions made by these companies. 2025 SMM Evergreen Medal of the Light of Nonferrous Metals (First Round) AMC UPP Aluminum (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. Anhui Huachuang Environmental Protection Equipment Technology Co., Ltd. Baoding Anbaoneng Metallurgical Equipment Co., Ltd. Dazheng Metals (Holdings) Co., Ltd. Dongyang Meichen Industry & Trade Co., Ltd. Fen'an Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. Fuzhou Maite New High-Temperature Materials Co., Ltd. Granges Aluminum (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. Guangdong Hongbang Metal Aluminum Co., Ltd. Guangdong Hongjin New Materials Group Co., Ltd. Guangdong Jianmei Aluminum Profile Factory (Group) Co., Ltd. Guangdong GoldEx Light Alloy Co., Ltd. Guangdong Juchen Equipment Technology Co., Ltd. Press Metal International Ltd. Hebei New Lizhong Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. Hubei New Jinyang Resources Group Co., Ltd. Hunan InnoChina Advanced Materials Co., Ltd. Jiangsu Dingsheng New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. Jiangsu Haiguang Metals Co., Ltd. Jiangsu Asia-Pacific Light Alloy Technology Co., Ltd. Jiangxi Baotai Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. Jiangxi Jinli Urban Minerals Co., Ltd. Kingboard Aluminum Group Calderys Refractories (China) Co., Ltd. (The above companies are listed in alphabetical order, with no ranking implied.) Wang Yanchen, General Manager of SMM London Office, presented the awards to the winning companies. 2025 SMM Evergreen Medal of the Light of Nonferrous Metals (Second Round) Lanxi Boyuan Metals Co., Ltd. Luoyang Longding Aluminum Co., Ltd. Nantong Zhongfu New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. Xiamen Xiashun Aluminum Foil Co., Ltd. Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co., Ltd. Shandong Lixin New Materials Co., Ltd. Shanxi Keyuan Carbon Co., Ltd. Shanghai Giant Alloy Materials Recycling Co., Ltd. Suzhou Nuorida New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. Vesuvius Foundry Technology (Jiangsu) Co., Ltd. Wenxi Kailida Trading Co., Ltd. Wuxi Pinsheng Metal Products Co., Ltd. Wuxi Lunsheng Materials Co., Ltd. Xuzhou Jieke Aluminum Co., Ltd. Xuzhou Tianyi Metal Flux Factory Xuzhou Yongsheng Metallurgical Materials Co., Ltd. Zhaoqing Southern Aluminum Recycling Co., Ltd. Zhejiang Lanwei Environmental Protection Technology Equipment Co., Ltd. Zhongyi Fengjinyi (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. Zhongzhu New Materials Industry (Jiangsu) Co., Ltd. Chongqing Jiantao Aluminum Co., Ltd. Chongqing Shunbo Aluminum Alloy Co., Ltd. (The above companies are listed in alphabetical order, with no ranking implied.) Dong Chen, Chairman of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Trading Center Co., Ltd., presented the awards to the winning companies. SMM congratulates all the winning companies and looks forward to more industry colleagues joining in to jointly promote the healthy development of the industry! Click to view the special report on the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference and Expo.

On April 18, at the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference & Aluminum Industry Expo - Global Secondary Aluminum Industry Development Forum, co-hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., SMM Metal Trading Center, and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., and co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. and Lezhi County Qianrun Investment Service Co., Ltd., Zhang Limin, Senior Analyst of Secondary Aluminum at SMM, shared insights on the 2025 China secondary aluminum market analysis and price assessment methodology. 1. Overview of the Aluminum Scrap Industry Chain Supply Side - Explosive Growth in Old Scrap in Recent Years ► SMM Analysis: • The recycling of old aluminum scrap is influenced by multiple factors. Currently, the recycling of old aluminum scrap mainly comes from social scrap collected over an average period of 10-20 years, involving fields such as construction, transportation, power, packaging, and durable goods. Among these, construction and transportation sectors dominate the recycled materials. In recent years, with more aluminum scrap gradually entering the recycling cycle and the introduction of policies like "trade-in," old scrap has entered a phase of explosive growth. • New aluminum scrap mainly comes from aluminum and downstream rolling and casting processes, including off-cuts and defective products. Additionally, some scrap generated during the use of end-use industries is also high-quality aluminum scrap. This portion of aluminum scrap is primarily influenced by the annual aluminum consumption. Supply Side - Increasing Supplement of Imported Raw Materials Since the implementation of the new standards in 2020, with traders' increasing adaptation to the new standards, aluminum scrap imports have been recovering year by year. ► SMM Analysis: • In 2018, other aluminum scrap (760200090) was adjusted to the "Catalog of Solid Wastes Restricted from Import as Raw Materials." From July 1, 2019, the import of aluminum scrap was completely banned. • In 2020, secondary cast aluminum alloy raw materials that comply with the "Secondary Cast Aluminum Alloy Raw Materials" (GB/T 38472-2019) standard are not considered solid waste and can be freely imported. This has been in effect since November 1, 2020. • On October 24, 2024, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the General Administration of Customs, and four other departments issued the "Announcement on Regulating the Import Management of Secondary Copper and Copper Alloy Raw Materials, Secondary Aluminum and Aluminum Alloy Raw Materials." Secondary copper and aluminum raw materials that meet the annex requirements are not considered solid waste and can be freely imported. The announcement has been in effect since November 15, 2024. According to customs data, the total imports for 2024 were 1.785 million mt, up 1.65% YoY. • In January-February 2025, aluminum scrap imports were 323,000 mt, up 12% YoY. Driven by relaxed policies and increased demand, imports are expected to show a mild growth trend for the year, but the growth rate may be constrained by international market competition and the inversion of domestic and overseas price spreads. Supply Side - Aluminum Scrap Import Policies from Standardization to Optimization ► SMM Analysis: The "Announcement on Regulating the Import Management of Secondary Copper and Copper Alloy Raw Materials, Secondary Aluminum and Aluminum Alloy Raw Materials" has removed the barriers to the import of secondary aluminum raw materials in China, providing a policy basis for legal and compliant imports. SMM expects that aluminum scrap imports in 2025 may show a restorative growth. However, with the growth of domestic old and new scrap production, the domestic aluminum scrap supply will play a significant role, reducing dependence on overseas aluminum scrap. In addition to the increase in domestic aluminum scrap supply, overseas secondary aluminum processing capacity has also shown a growth trend in recent years, with overseas aluminum scrap resources entering a period of high demand growth. Some overseas aluminum scrap resources are being consumed locally, and the opportunity for them to enter China is expected to decline. Demand Side - Secondary Aluminum Alloy Demand Slows Down, Plate/Sheet and Extrusion Become New Engines ► SMM Analysis: The downstream demand for aluminum scrap in China is mainly for the production of secondary aluminum alloys, the manufacture of remelting billets for extruded aluminum profiles, and the addition of some aluminum scrap in the aluminum plate/sheet and strip industry. In recent years, the capacity expansion in the domestic secondary aluminum industry has been significant, and the supply of aluminum scrap has been tight. According to SMM data, the domestic demand for secondary aluminum in 2024 was approximately 12.79 million mt, with an expected annual compound growth rate of 13% from 2020 to 2025. The growth rate of aluminum scrap consumption for secondary aluminum alloy ingots has slowed down, while the demand for secondary wrought alloys has been increasing year by year, continuing to drive the growth rate of the entire aluminum scrap industry. According to SMM data, in 2024, the consumption of aluminum scrap in the domestic secondary aluminum alloy industry accounted for 59% of the total consumption, down 17 percentage points from 2019, while the consumption of aluminum scrap for remelting billets accounted for about 24%, up 6 percentage points from 2019, and the consumption of secondary plate/sheet increased significantly by 11 percentage points. Policy Empowerment for Green Development, China's Secondary Aluminum Industry Enters a Golden Development Period Since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," the development of China's secondary aluminum industry has entered a policy golden period, with relevant policies being intensively introduced. The national low-carbon process has accelerated, promoting the carbon peak in the non-ferrous metal industry and accelerating the development of the secondary aluminum industry, while also injecting new momentum into the green and sustainable development of the aluminum industry. It also reviewed some of the secondary aluminum industry promotion policies from 2021 to 2025. 2. Current Status of the Secondary Aluminum Alloy Market Increasing Concentration of Secondary Aluminum Alloy Industry Capacity Enterprises are mainly concentrated in east China, south China, and south-west China. Rising Supply Pressure, Slowing Growth in New Secondary Aluminum Alloy Capacity ► SMM Analysis: According to SMM statistics, in 2024, there were 28 planned and newly built secondary cast aluminum alloy projects in China, involving a capacity of 2.05 million mt. Among them, 16 projects were actually put into production, with a new capacity of 1.32 million mt, and the total existing capacity in the industry reached 17.62 million mt. In terms of the distribution of new capacity, Anhui, Sichuan, and Yunnan ranked in the top three. Among them, Anhui, due to its active development of the NEV industry, has attracted many OEMs and parts companies, leading to the establishment of new secondary aluminum plants and potentially shifting the production center in east China from Jiangsu and Zhejiang to Anhui. Surge in New Secondary Aluminum Projects in Q1 2025, Limited Actual Volume ► SMM Analysis: In Q1 2025, the domestic new secondary aluminum capacity totaled 2.66 million mt, including approximately 560,000 mt of new secondary cast aluminum alloy capacity and 1.7 million mt of new secondary wrought aluminum alloy capacity, with secondary wrought aluminum products being favored. Compared to the same period last year, the number of new projects has increased, but most are in the environmental assessment or new construction phase, with limited actual new capacity. As projects are gradually completed and put into production, the supply in the secondary aluminum market is expected to continue to increase significantly. Raw Material Constraints and New Capacity Expansion Lead to Another Decline in Secondary Aluminum Alloy Operating Rate ► SMM Analysis: Due to factors such as high capacity and insufficient raw materials, the overall operating rate in the secondary aluminum industry has remained low for a long time. According to SMM statistics, the production of secondary aluminum alloys in 2024 is expected to reach 7.05 million mt, with the operating rate dropping by 2 percentage points to 40.0% compared to the previous year. The demand for secondary aluminum alloys in fields such as NEVs is expected to increase in the future, and with the gradual improvement of policies, those secondary aluminum plants that rely excessively on tax incentives may face elimination. In addition, the speed of new capacity expansion may slow down, thereby promoting a rebound in the operating rate of the secondary aluminum alloy industry. Significant Increase in NEV Market Share, Secondary Aluminum Alloy Demand Rises ► SMM Analysis: Automobiles are the largest downstream application of secondary aluminum alloys. In 2024, China's automobile production was 31.282 million units, up 3.7% YoY. Among them, the annual production of NEVs exceeded 10 million units for the first time, up 34.4% YoY, with the market share increasing to 40.9%. Although secondary aluminum alloys are currently mainly used in traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, in recent years, automotive parts companies have accelerated the transition from core components of internal combustion engine vehicles to the three electric systems of NEVs, driving secondary aluminum companies to develop aluminum alloy products that meet new demands. Driven by the "dual carbon" goals, cost control, and technological advancements, the demand for low-carbon secondary aluminum materials continues to rise. According to SMM estimates, the demand for secondary aluminum alloys for automobiles in 2024 increased by 2.3% YoY. In Q1 2025, China's automobile production cumulatively reached 7.561 million units, up 14.5% YoY, with NEV production increasing by 50.4%, continuing the strong production and sales momentum. The demand for secondary aluminum alloys for automobiles in 2025 is expected to grow to 4.46 million mt. Steady Growth in the Motorcycle Industry Drives Slight Increase in Secondary Aluminum Alloy Demand ► SMM Analysis: The application of aluminum alloys in motorcycles is already very extensive, with aluminum castings occupying a core position. The main application components include cylinder heads, cylinder blocks, shock absorbers, brakes, handle covers, and side covers. According to data from the China Chamber of Commerce for Motorcycles, the total production of motorcycles in 2024 was 19.9708 million units, up 2.82% YoY. In addition to complete vehicles, the export of motorcycle engines increased by 22% YoY to 1.15 million units. Overall, the demand for secondary aluminum alloys from motorcycles in 2024 increased by 3.4% YoY to 760,000 mt. With policy support, steady growth in exports, and the development of electrification, the demand for secondary aluminum alloys from motorcycles is expected to further increase. Demand for Secondary Aluminum Alloys in Other Fields Also Grows ► SMM Analysis: Secondary aluminum alloys are also widely used in fields such as communications, machinery equipment, consumer electronics, and appliances. ADC12 Cost Breakdown ► SMM Analysis: The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of five parts. Specifically, ① Aluminum scrap raw material cost: the largest proportion, with differences in composition and yield rate leading to varying aluminum scrap prices. Additionally, the pre-treatment methods and equipment processes of enterprises also affect the cost of aluminum scrap. ② Silicon raw material cost: enterprises mainly use 553# grade with or without oxygen. ③ Copper raw material cost: for cost reduction, secondary aluminum plants usually add bare bright copper wire and other copper scrap. ④ Natural gas cost: secondary aluminum plants mostly use natural gas as fuel in the smelting process, with 60-80 m³ of natural gas consumed per ton of ADC12 production. ⑤ Other costs: mainly include additives and other auxiliary materials used in the smelting process, hydropower, labor, three expenses, and depreciation. Rising Aluminum Prices Drive Up Aluminum Scrap Cost Proportion, Falling Silicon Prices Lead to Significant Decline in Proportion ► SMM Analysis: According to SMM estimates, the national weighted average cost of ADC12 in 2024 was 19,776 yuan/mt (including tax), up 6.9% YoY, with the proportion of aluminum scrap cost increasing by 1.1 percentage points to 88.5%; in 2024, silicon prices continued to decline unilaterally, with the cost proportion continuously decreasing. In Q1 2025, the national weighted average cost of ADC12 reached 20,494 yuan/mt (including tax), with the proportion of aluminum scrap cost increasing by another 0.7 percentage points to 89.2%, continuing to expand in the total cost. Imported Aluminum Alloy Ingots Increased by 7% YoY in 2024, Rebounding Above 1.2 Million mt The import window for aluminum alloy ingots opened after 2020 ► SMM Analysis: Before 2020, China was a net exporter of aluminum alloy ingots, but after 2020, the import window gradually opened. In 2024, imported aluminum alloy ingots were 1.213 million mt, up 7.1% YoY. Policy changes may affect the import situation in 2025. In terms of import sources, Malaysia remained the top source of imported aluminum alloy ingots for the year, reaching 521,300 mt, with the proportion increasing from 42% in 2023 to 43%. The other top sources were Thailand, Vietnam, Russia, and South Korea, with proportions of 14.2%, 7.9%, 7.7%, and 6.1%, respectively. The proportion of the top five import countries increased from 75% in 2023 to 79%.Imports from Thailand saw the largest increase, up 59,000 mt YoY to 172,000 mt. In January-February 2025, aluminum alloy imports exceeded 100,000 mt consecutively, with price inversion and exchange rate impacts leading to shrinking profits. ►SMM Analysis: Cumulative imports in January-February 2025 reached 191,500 mt, down 1.0% YoY. After mid-November last year, domestic aluminum prices began a continuous decline, with ADC12 prices following suit. Meanwhile, overseas prices fluctuated relatively little, and the RMB exchange rate weakened continuously, quickly turning profits into losses, which persisted until mid-January. Additionally, during the Chinese New Year holiday, market activity decreased, and demand declined. Multiple unfavorable factors combined, reducing monthly imports to below 100,000 mt in January and February. Imports in March are expected to rebound slightly to above 100,000 mt, with a potential decline after April. 3. Supply-Demand Balance in the Secondary Aluminum Market. Aluminum Scrap Supply-Demand Balance. Increased imports of aluminum scrap are filling market gaps, potentially balancing aluminum scrap supply and demand. The analysis of the annual aluminum scrap balance (2023-2027E) was conducted from perspectives including domestic new material, domestic old material, imports (aluminum scrap + remelting ingots), secondary aluminum alloy demand, remelting billet demand, secondary aluminum plate/sheet and strip demand, and other demands (cables, aluminum powder, etc.). Secondary Aluminum Alloy Supply-Demand Balance. Slowing capacity release combined with a slight increase in demand maintains a tight balance in the secondary aluminum alloy market. 4. Secondary Aluminum Market Price Outlook and Methodology Introduction. ADC12 Price Trend. ►SMM Analysis: In terms of A00 prices, domestic supply in 2025 is gradually approaching its ceiling, with production growth narrowing to around 2.1%. Meanwhile, the development of new energy and other sectors continues to drive primary aluminum consumption, although traditional construction sector aluminum use is expected to decline. SMM forecasts a 1.5% increase in aluminum consumption for the full year of 2025, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance. Recent unexpected tariff policies have sustained a bearish trading sentiment, putting pressure on future prices. For ADC12, the aluminum scrap market remains tight, and more comprehensive policies may increase cost pressures for companies. Downstream consumption is growing slightly, but the demand rebound in March-April fell short of expectations, intensifying cut-throat competition and dragging down ADC12 prices. On the supply side, new capacities in 2025 continue to expand, increasing supply pressure, while imports may decline, reducing their impact on domestic prices. Overall, aluminum scrap costs still strongly support ADC12 prices, but rising supply and weaker-than-expected demand may limit price increases. SMM strictly adheres to IOSCO price collection standards, facilitating international clients' use of prices. The International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) is an international cooperative organization of securities and futures regulatory bodies. SMM releases price points through a comprehensive price collection system and price assessment methodology. SMM Secondary Aluminum Price System. SMM secondary aluminum prices cover aluminum scrap and quotes from three major downstream sectors. • Aluminum Scrap: Aluminum scrap prices broadly cover major production and consumption regions in China, involving multiple categories, as well as overseas imports and imported remelting ingot quotes. • Remelting Billet: Covers multiple regions and various models. • Secondary Aluminum Alloy: Common domestic and international alloy grades, such as ADC12, A380, etc. • Secondary Aluminum Plate/Sheet and Strip: Quotes for 1, 3, 5, and 6-series secondary aluminum plate/sheet and strip. SMM ADC12 Price Formation. Click to view the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference and Aluminum Industry Expo Special Report.