On May 5, London Metal Exchange (LME): total inventory 360,225 mt, change -2,500 mt; registered warrants 331,725 mt, change -200 mt; cancelled warrants 28,500 mt, change +2,300 mt.

SMM May 6 update: During the morning session, the SHFE aluminum 2605 contract fluctuated upward, with the overall price center rising compared to the previous trading day. Currently, some sellers had not fully resumed operations, and combined with invoicing constraints, market trading shipments contracted. On the first trading day after the holiday, downstream buyers showed a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and purchase willingness cooled. Dragged by weak spot buying, mainstream transactions concentrated in the range of SMMA00 aluminum -10 yuan/mt to the average price. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.67, down 0.08 MoM; the purchase sentiment index was 2.8, down 0.1 MoM. On the first day after the Labour Day holiday, the central China market saw overall sluggish trading. Concerns among traders and downstream participants over insufficient invoice quotas limited trading volume. Buying sentiment was subdued, but suppliers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm. At the opening, overall offers stayed high before gradually declining. The invoiced transaction amount on the day was slightly higher than the concentrated invoicing price at month-end. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from parity to a premium of 20 yuan relative to the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.83, down 0.01 MoM; the purchase sentiment index was 2.28, down 0.04 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas rose 2.05 MoM today, with the inventory buildup mainly originating from Wuxi and Gongyi.

[Geopolitical Tensions Boost LME, China Inventory Buildup and Weakening Demand Under Pressure] In the short term, the core pattern of LME outperforming SHFE in the aluminum market is difficult to reverse. The strength in LME will support room for SHFE aluminum to catch up after the holiday, but high inventory and weak demand in China will suppress overall gains. Going forward, the focus should be on the pace of aluminum ingot destocking in China and the strength of rigid demand release from downstream resumption of work and production resumptions.

In the short term, the core pattern of LME outperforms SHFE is unlikely to reverse. Strength in the overseas market will support SHFE aluminum's post-holiday catch-up potential, but high domestic inventory and weak demand will cap overall gains. Going forward, key focus will be on the pace of China aluminum ingot destocking and the strength of rigid demand release from downstream production resumptions.

SMM News, April 30: According to SMM statistics, China’s primary aluminum output in April 2026 (30 days) rose by 1.7% year-on-year and fell by 2.9% month-on-month. As the traditional peak consumption season continues, demand from downstream sectors including aluminum sheet, strip & foil and aluminum wires & cables has formed effective support. The domestic liquid aluminum ratio edged up moderately, rising by 1.7 percentage points month-on-month to 75.3% in April. The overall performance was slightly below early-month expectations, mainly dragged by weaker-than-anticipated orders for aluminum profiles. Based on SMM’s liquid aluminum ratio calculation data, domestic primary aluminum ingot output in April dropped by 3.4% year-on-year and 9.0% month-on-month. Capacity Changes: As of late April, China’s commissioned primary aluminum capacity surveyed by SMM stood at approximately 46.209 million tons, showing no month-on-month changes. Output Forecast: In May 2026, the liquid aluminum production ratio among domestic primary aluminum producers will operate in a differentiated pattern. Overall, with the recovery of overseas market demand, export orders for domestic aluminum fabricated products are expected to keep improving, supporting a mild rebound in the liquid aluminum ratio. comprehensively, the liquid aluminum ratio is projected to increase by 0.5 percentage points to 75.8%.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Domestic and International Aluminum Prices Weakened in Tandem, Weak Macro Sentiment Dragged Down Pre-Holiday Market]

SMM April 29: SHFE aluminum 2605 fluctuated upward in early trading, with overall aluminum prices still operating within the recent lower range. Some downstream enterprises had completed pre-holiday stockpiling, and overall restocking sentiment pulled back today. Affected by low aluminum prices, overall market shipment sentiment was weak. Some sellers maintained relatively high quotations due to the impact of declining aluminum prices. Some offered lower prices for cargoes with invoices dated next month due to invoice shortages. The market quotation range was wide, with mainstream transactions concentrated around SMM A00 aluminum -20 to +20 yuan/mt. Today's east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.75, down 0.16 MoM; purchasing sentiment index was 2.90, down 0.74 MoM. On the last day before the Labour Day holiday, downstream processing enterprises in central China had basically completed early stockpiling, and with next month's policies unclear, traders' concerns over insufficient invoice quotas suppressed transactions for cargoes with invoices dated next month, with overall market buying sentiment being sluggish. However, some holders worried about insufficient invoices and tended to offload cargoes in bulk, causing price collapse in some shipment prices. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged from parity to a discount of 30 yuan to the central China price. Today's central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.84, up 0.01 MoM; purchasing sentiment index was 2.33, down 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell 1.4 MoM today, with all three regions showing destocking trends.

SMM April 29: SHFE aluminum 2605 fluctuated upward in early trading, with overall aluminum prices still operating within a relatively low range recently. Driven by pre-holiday restocking, reduced liquidity due to invoice shortages, and recent low aluminum prices, overall buyer procurement sentiment was strong. Mainstream transactions for cargoes with invoices dated this month were concentrated around SMM A00 aluminum average price to +10 yuan/mt. East China market shipments sentiment index was 2.91, down 0.10 MoM; procurement sentiment index was 3.64, up 0.06 MoM. Central China market downstream processing enterprises showed improved stockpiling sentiment ahead of the Labour Day holiday, driving a slight recovery in overall market transaction atmosphere. However, insufficient invoice quotas still suppressed next-month invoice transactions among traders, with more preference for selling cargoes with invoices dated this month, keeping prices high. Ultimately, actual transaction price range in the central China market centered around central China price premium 10 yuan to discount 10 yuan. Central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.83, up 0.01 MoM; procurement sentiment index was 2.41, up 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell 1.15 MoM, with destocking mainly from Wuxi and Gongyi.

SMM April 28: SHFE aluminum 2605 fluctuated downward in early trading. Influenced by pre-holiday restocking, invoice shortages, and the sharp decline in aluminum prices, overall buyer purchasing sentiment was strong. Mainstream transactions for cargoes with invoices dated this month in the market centered around SMM A00 aluminum average price to +20 yuan/mt. The shipment sentiment index in east China was 3.01 today, down 0.31 MoM; the procurement sentiment index was 3.58, up 0.29 MoM. In central China, downstream processing enterprises showed improved stockpiling sentiment, but invoicing quotas declined. Traders' concerns over whether invoices could be issued on schedule suppressed overall market transactions. Procurement sentiment edged down slightly from yesterday, but traders showed strong willingness to hold prices firm, preventing prices from continuing to decline. The actual transaction price range in central China ultimately centered around the central China price plus 10 yuan to minus 10 yuan. The shipment sentiment index in central China was 2.82 today, down 0.01 MoM; the procurement sentiment index was 2.33, down 0.01 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell 0.65 MoM today, with all three regions showing a destocking trend.

April 28 News: According to SMM statistics, China's aluminum ingot inventory: Guangdong inventory was 420,500 mt, Wuxi inventory was 560,500 mt, Gongyi inventory was 270,500 mt, down 6,500 mt WoW.