[ADC12 Price Daily Review: Costs Shift Lower, Demand Weak, ADC12 Quotes Continue to Move Lower] Today, ADC12 market quotes were generally lowered by 200 yuan/mt. The price reduction was mainly driven by the pullback in aluminum prices, the subsequent decline in aluminum scrap prices that pushed costs lower, and a weaker cast aluminum alloy futures market, leaving cost-side support somewhat weakened.

[Liquidity Tightening Concerns Ease Marginally, Aluminum Prices Stay Under Pressure at Highs in Near Term] Overall, on the macro front, US PPI and core PPI for July both declined YoY, coming in below both expectations and previous readings. Inflationary pressure eased further, and market expectations for a US Fed rate hike in September were scaled back, marginally easing concerns over liquidity tightening. On the fundamentals front, aluminum ingot inventories continued to destock, but destocking was expected to slow down in the second half of the month. The pace of production resumptions at Middle Eastern aluminum smelters was faster than the market had previously expected, and the supply-tightness premium priced in earlier faced pressure to unwind. Although macro recovery and continued destocking in the first half of August supported stronger aluminum prices, market sentiment shifted, and aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure at high levels in the near term, with upside room likely to be capped to some extent by production resumption expectations.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Pullback Weighs on Spot; Cost Support Limits Downside Room] Yesterday, aluminum alloy market quotes were broadly lower, with the SMM ADC12 price lowered by 200 yuan/mt. The futures pullback further dampened spot market sentiment, and enterprises generally followed by lowering their quotes. The downstream sector is still in a demand off-season, with some enterprises still on high-temperature holidays or operating at reduced loads. End-user orders and procurement demand are weak, and the spot market lacks sustained upward momentum. However, the cost side still provides some support, as aluminum scrap prices remain relatively high overall and enterprises have limited room to cut prices further. The market lacks demand drivers on the upside, while the downside is constrained by costs. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to continue to consolidate within a range.

[Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum Weekly Review: High Raw Material Support and Off-Season Inventory Buildup Coexist; Secondary Aluminum Price Range Under Pressure] This week, China's aluminum scrap market prices moved sideways and consolidated, tracking primary aluminum trends. The price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum scrap widened again as aluminum scrap struggled to catch up. On August 13, SMM A00 spot aluminum prices closed at 24,120 yuan/mt, up 320 yuan/mt from last Thursday.

[ADC12 Daily Price Review: Aluminum Alloy Futures and Spot Prices Fall in Tandem; ADC12 to Move Sideways in the Short Term] Today, aluminum alloy market quotes were broadly lower, with the SMM ADC12 price revised down by 200 yuan/mt. The pullback in futures further dampened spot market sentiment, and enterprises generally followed suit by lowering their quotes.

[CPI in Line with Expectations Eases Macro Anxiety; Sustained Destocking Provides Price Support] Based on a comprehensive assessment, on the macro front, US July CPI and core CPI YoY growth rates slowed to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively, both in line with market expectations. The mild inflation pullback eased market concerns about further aggressive rate hikes by the US Fed; short-term upward momentum in US Treasury yields weakened, and macro liquidity pressure eased somewhat, providing support for aluminum prices at this stage. The fundamental supply gap persisted, and aluminum ingot inventories continued destocking. On the supply side outside China, UAE's EGA disclosed the progress of production resumption at the AlTaweelah aluminum smelter. Currently, 18% of the plant's 1,262 pots have been restarted, and the pace of production resumption has been faster than earlier market expectations. The supply-tightness premium priced in earlier now faces retracement pressure. In the near term, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note, but upside room will be somewhat capped by production resumption expectations.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: ADC12 Quotes Hold Up Well on Cost Push] Yesterday, ADC12 quotes generally held up well, and SMM raised its average price by 100 yuan/mt. Primary aluminum and aluminum scrap prices continued to rise, further strengthening raw material cost-side support. This boosted the market's willingness to follow the uptrend, while support below prices remained relatively solid. However, end-user demand remained in the high-temperature off-season; orders and consumption were mediocre, downstream users mainly made just-in-time procurement, spot trading showed limited improvement, and the demand side still exerted some pressure on price increases. In the short term, if futures and aluminum scrap prices remain strong, ADC12 prices still have room for further follow-through gains, but weak demand will limit spot price gains. Overall, the market is expected to continue a narrow sideways pattern characterized by the coexistence of cost support and demand constraints.

[SMM Analysis]Raw Material Constraints Combined with Weakening Marginal Demand Kept the Operating Rate of Secondary Aluminum Producers at a Low Level in July

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] Today, the average price of SMM ADC12 was raised by 100 yuan/mt. Primary aluminum and aluminum scrap prices continued to rise, and cost support from raw materials further strengthened, leading to a stronger willingness in the market to follow the price rise, with relatively solid support at the bottom of prices. However, the end-user sector is currently in a high-temperature off-season, with mediocre orders and consumption performance. Downstream users mainly made just-in-time procurements, and improvement in spot transactions was limited, as the demand side still e

The Southeast Asian secondary aluminum market remained broadly stable this week. Aluminum scrap prices moved within a narrow range, while ADC12 domestic prices were largely unchanged and FOB offers edged higher on firm raw material costs. Meanwhile, imported aluminum scrap prices in China continued to rebound as import margins improved, with several cargoes reportedly scheduled to arrive in mid-August, providing additional support to market sentiment.