SMM May 13: SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated upward in the morning session, with the overall price center rising compared to the previous trading day. Some sellers held prices firm today. End-users mainly made just-in-time procurement, and traders' buying sentiment improved. The mainstream spot cargo quotations ranged from SMM A00 aluminum average price to SMM A00 minus 10 yuan/mt. The shipment sentiment index in east China was 2.96 today, up 0.10 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.86, up 0.06 MoM. The overall trading atmosphere in the central China market remained sluggish today. Aluminum prices rebounded slightly, and buying sentiment was basically flat compared to the previous day. Insufficient invoice quotas and limited orders continued to suppress buying sentiment of downstream processing enterprises. The actual transaction price range in the central China market remained relatively stable, hovering between parity and a discount of 10 yuan to the central China price. The shipment sentiment index in central China was 2.82 today, flat MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.28, flat MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell 0.45 MoM today, with all three regions showing a destocking trend.

[Macro Policy and Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers: Aluminum Prices Move Sideways] The risk of supply disruptions to aluminum outside China has not yet subsided, and there remains a supply gap in ex-China aluminum, with the strong LME market transmitting to China and providing support for aluminum prices. However, the continuation of inventory buildup exceeding expectations in China will weigh on domestic aluminum prices. Meanwhile, tightened invoicing regulations may lead to structural tightness in spot cargo, and the weakening spot market further limits the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. Close attention should be paid to the potential turning point in China's social inventory, which could drive a rebound and rise in aluminum prices.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Tightening Supply Sources Combined with Pullback in Imports, Tight Aluminum Scrap Circulation Underpins Prices] Aluminum alloy 2607 in the night session exhibited an overall trend of "retreat after rapid rise, hover at lows." From the intraday perspective...

[Inventory Buildup and Macro Tailwinds Offset Each Other, Aluminum Prices Trade in a Range] The risk of supply disruptions to aluminum outside China has not yet subsided, and the ex-China aluminum ingot supply-demand gap will continue to provide support for aluminum prices. Meanwhile, the continuation of higher-than-expected inventory buildup in China will weigh on domestic aluminum prices. At the same time, tightened invoicing regulations may lead to structural tightness in spot cargo, and the weakening spot market will further limit upside room for domestic aluminum prices. Close attention should be paid to the potential emergence of a turning point in China's social inventory, which could drive a rebound and rise in aluminum prices.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Demand Suppression and Cost Support, ADC12 Prices Move Sideways] On Monday, the ADC12 market was generally stable with slight rise. Most enterprises, influenced by the rebound in aluminum futures and rising aluminum scrap raw material costs, raised their quotes by 100 yuan/mt accordingly.

[SMM Analysis]Secondary Aluminum Operating Rate Declined in April, with Downward Pressure Persisting in May

SMM May 11 update: During the morning session, the SHFE aluminum 2605 contract fluctuated upward, with the overall price center rising compared to the previous trading day. Driven by higher aluminum prices, market shipment sentiment rose notably today, with increased activity on the offer side, though buying activity showed no significant improvement. The mainstream spot quotation shifted from the SMM A00 aluminum average price down to SMM A00 minus 10 yuan/mt. The east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.91 today, up 0.17 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.66, flat MoM. The trading atmosphere in the central China market remained relatively subdued today but improved slightly WoW. Buying sentiment among downstream processing enterprises remained sluggish. As aluminum prices rose, market trading premiums showed a downward trend, with quotations declining from a premium of 20-30 yuan/mt over the central China price before the opening to a range between a premium of 10 yuan/mt and a discount of 10 yuan/mt to the central China price. The central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.82 today, up 0.01 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.29, up 0.01 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions fell 1.1 MoM today, with destocking mainly in Guangdong and Gongyi.

[SMM Analysis]Weak Supply and Demand, Cost Support: ADC12 Prices in Narrow-Range Doldrums

SMM May 8 update: During the morning session, the SHFE aluminum 2605 contract fluctuated downward, with the overall price center rising compared to the previous trading day. Current invoicing constraints led to a contraction in market trade shipments. Today, downstream buyers maintained a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with purchase willingness remaining at a relatively weak level. Dragged by lackluster spot buying, mainstream transactions were concentrated around SMM A00 aluminum minus 10 yuan/mt to the average price. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.74, up 0.08 MoM; the purchase sentiment index was 2.66, up 0.06 MoM. Today, futures aluminum prices saw a slight correction. In the central China market, the sentiment of accepting price increases but not decreases was evident. Overall buying sentiment recovered slightly compared to the previous day, but some suppliers held prices firm and held back from selling, and affected by invoice shortages, shipment enthusiasm was low, with the trading atmosphere remaining sluggish. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged between parity with the central China price and a premium of 10 yuan above the central China price, with fluctuations being relatively small. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.81, down 0.01 MoM; the purchase sentiment index was 2.28, up 0.01 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell 1.1 MoM today, with all three regions showing a destocking trend.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Century Aluminum reported Q1 2026 results with net sales of $649.2M, net income of $337.5M, and adjusted EBITDA of $231.4M. Net income included one-time gains from the Hawesville asset sale and insurance compensation related to the Iceland equipment failure. Liquidity stood at $611M as of March-end. The company expects Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $315–335M, supported by higher aluminum prices and ramp-up at Mt. Holly.