According to Hydro's official website, Hydro's adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2026 was NOK 8.668 billion, lower than NOK 9.516 billion in the same period last year. This was mainly due to lower raw material costs, higher metal prices, and increased sales of alumina and metals, but this was partially offset by lower alumina prices, a stronger NOK, and lower electricity generation. Hydro's profitability was strong this quarter, with adjusted earnings per share increasing to NOK 2.07 in the first quarter of 2026, compared to NOK 1.63 in the first quarter of 2025. The upstream business segment continued to operate strongly in the first quarter.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Norsk Hydro reported strong Q1 2026 performance, with adjusted EBITDA at NOK 8.67 billion, slightly down year-on-year due to currency and power impacts. Higher aluminum prices and increased alumina and metal sales supported earnings, while weaker alumina prices, a stronger NOK, and lower power production weighed on results. Adjusted EPS rose to NOK 2.07 (from NOK 1.63), though free cash flow was negative NOK 4 billion due to higher working capital tied to elevated metal prices and volumes. Return on capital employed (RoaCE) stood at 10.1%.

SMM News, April 27: On April 24, 2026, market rumors emerged that Guinea would cap its bauxite export volume at 150 million tons, with the relevant policy to be officially released on April 25. The news drove a sharp rise in alumina during the overnight session that day. The main alumina contract 2609 hit a high of 2,899 yuan per ton and closed at 2,894 yuan per ton, up 2.76% from the previous settlement price. As of April 25, 2026, no updated official policy documents had been released on relevant government websites in Guinea. Per market rumors, Guinea’s bauxite exports will be restricted to 150 million tons. Should the final policy be implemented as rumored, based on Guinea’s general bauxite trade flow ratios and historical shipment volumes, SMM estimates that domestic bauxite imports from Guinea will drop to approximately 132 million tons in 2026. Customs data for 2025 showed domestic imports of Guinea bauxite stood at around 149 million tons, Australian bauxite imports at roughly 37.42 million tons, and non-mainstream source bauxite imports at about 14.26 million tons. If Guinea bauxite imports fall to 132 million tons in 2026, Australian bauxite imports remain largely stable, and non-mainstream bauxite imports edge down to around 12.5 million tons, the total domestic bauxite import volume is projected to decline to roughly 182 million tons. SMM forecasts domestic bauxite output to reach 79 million tons in 2026 (including volumes supplied for non-metallurgical alumina production), putting the total domestic bauxite supply at approximately 261 million tons for the year. SMM estimates domestic metallurgical alumina output at 87.22 million tons in 2026, sufficient to support a annually aluminum production capacity of 45.3 million tons. The alumina market will shift to a net import status. Factoring in bauxite demand for non-metallurgical alumina segments, overall bauxite total demand is expected to hit around 262 million tons. On the whole, the bauxite market fundamentals are set to shift into a tight balance in 2026. Amid raw material inventory buildup demand from newly commissioned alumina capacity, the bauxite market is theoretically poised to face mild tight supply conditions. However, actual market performance is expected to be looser than modelled calculations, for the following key reasons: Electrolytic aluminum production cuts in the Middle East have exacerbated overseas alumina surplus, while global bauxite supply contraction has lifted price expectations. Rising domestic bauxite prices will push up local alumina production costs, further enhancing the cost competitiveness of overseas alumina. Higher alumina imports will replace part of bauxite imports, easing domestic bauxite supply tightness. Elevated inventory levels will ease market tightness. In 2025, high price incentives drove a substantial increase in bauxite supply, resulting in a notable supply surplus and sharp inventory accumulation.Data from SMM showed domestic port bauxite inventories stood at 21.32 million tons and bonded ore inventories at alumina refineries at about 57.06 million tons by early 2026, with combined inventories reaching 78.38 million tons. Ample inventory buffers will keep actual market conditions looser than theoretical projections. In summary, if Guinea finalizes its policy to cap total bauxite exports at 150 million tons with no major fluctuations in ocean freight rates, bauxite prices are expected to trend a little bit higher. Nevertheless, substantial overseas alumina surplus and increased substitutable alumina imports will cap upside potential for bauxite prices. Barring unforeseen black swan events, neither bauxite nor alumina prices are likely to replicate the strong rally seen from late 2024 to early 2025. In the short term, both buyers and sellers in the bauxite market are adopting a wait-and-see stance, pending official updates on Guinea’s new policy. Market sentiment remains cautious, and prices are projected to move in a volatile range ahead of clear policy guidance.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 2.5 Futures: During the night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract AO2605 opened at 2,824 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,824 yuan/mt, hit a low of 2,781 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,788 yuan/mt, down 36 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest increased by 7,776 lots to 383,000 lots, indicating an overall cautious market sentiment. From a technical perspective, the closing price was above MA10 (2,777.80) and MA30 (2,772.63), providing some upward momentum, but below MA5 (2,792.20), limiting gains with overhead pressure still present. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DIF (7.18) crossed above DEA (0.19), with the bullish crossover at low levels weakening and the histogram narrowing to 13.96, suggesting alumina futures are expected to continue weakening in the near term. Industry Updates: 1) Overseas alumina transactions: On February 3, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of $310/mt FOB Western Australia for March shipment. The previous transaction was on January 20 at $304/mt FOB Western Australia for February shipment. Ore: As of February 4, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $62.42/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was $39/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $61/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $60/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $56/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was $47/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was $60/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was $73/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was $71.5/mt, down $2/mt from last Friday. Domestic ore side, bauxite production resumptions in Shanxi were active, with currently ample supply. Combined with some domestic ore production lines planning to upgrade to imported ore lines recently, domestic ore demand weakened again, and prices were under pressure. Imported ore side, market transactions were sluggish, with offer prices continuing to decline. Some alumina refineries reported that amid falling ore prices, procurement plans remained cautious. SMM will continue to monitor domestic and overseas mines' production, port shipments, and price trends. Spot Prices: As of February 4, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,619.87 yuan/mt, down 0.27 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,549.77 yuan/mt, down 0.19 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,617.91 yuan/mt, down 0.92 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,604.23 yuan/mt, down 0.26 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,693.56 yuan/mt, down 0.23 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,674 yuan/mt, down 0.33 yuan/mt MoM. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on February 4, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 208.13 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30 AM. Warrant Daily Report: On February 4, total registered alumina warrants increased by 6,944 mt from the previous trading day to 196,300 mt. Shandong region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 7,796 mt. Henan region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 1,203 mt. Guangxi region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 7,505 mt. Gansu region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 17,400 mt. Xinjiang region alumina warrants increased by 6,944 mt from the previous trading day to 162,400 mt. Markets Outside China: As of February 4, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $310/mt, the ocean freight rate was $20.2/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.95. This translated to a selling price at China's major ports of approximately 2,674.83 yuan/mt, which was 54.96 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index price. According to SMM model calculations, the import window was closed. Summary: Overall, as of last Thursday, China's alumina market inventory edged up slightly, with the overall oversupply pattern continuing. Currently, some alumina refineries have started maintenance, with enterprises across various regions arranging production shutdowns of different scales, leading to a decline in the industry operating rate and a weekly production decrease of 35,000 mt to 1.636 million mt. Inventory side, as more enterprises underwent maintenance, alumina in-factory inventory decreased by 3,000 mt to 1.2408 million mt. Aluminum enterprises' raw material inventory edged up slightly to 3.603 million mt, mainly due to continued shipments under long-term contract orders. Warrants, attracted by previously strong futures prices, saw increased delivery willingness, rising by 40,000 mt to 159,100 mt, while in-transit and platform inventory decreased by 30,000 mt as cargoes gradually arrived at end-users. Overall, although the pace of inventory buildup has slowed down compared to the earlier period, overall industry inventory pressure persists, and the destocking progress has fallen short of expectations. Going forward, attention should be paid to the execution of enterprise maintenance plans. If the supply side fails to sustain contraction, inventory is expected to maintain a slight buildup trend next week, and spot alumina prices are expected to be in the doldrums. [Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]

Overall, cost support remained strong, supply tightened while demand stayed stable. As tender prices became clear, aluminum fluoride prices were generally raised by around 800 yuan/mt in line with the guidance. Going forward, close attention should be paid to dynamic changes in raw material costs and adjustments in downstream procurement pace.

SMM News, March 31 According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of domestic aluminum industry in March 2026 rose 0.5% MoM and fell 5.7% YoY, mainly due to a slight rebound in alumina raw material costs during the period. In March, Middle East production cuts pushed up aluminum prices in and outside China. The SMM A00 monthly average spot price (February 26-March 25) rose 2.9% MoM, and aluminum profit margins expanded to 8,316 yuan/mt. Based on monthly average price calculations, 100% of China’s operating aluminum capacity was profitable in March. From the cost breakdown side: Alumina raw materials : According to SMM data, the monthly average of the SMM alumina index in March was 2,685 yuan/mt (January 26-February 25), up 2.4% MoM. During the month, total operating alumina capacity was basically stable, but the Middle East geopolitical conflict raised ocean freight rates for alumina and bauxite, and domestic alumina costs are expected to move higher. Futures prices drove spot prices higher, lifting the monthly average alumina price. Entering April, the upward momentum in spot alumina prices at month-end March appeared slightly insufficient. Some new projects are expected to come online in April or ramp up operating capacity, but as the base price at the beginning of the month was already at a high level, alumina raw material costs in April are expected to post a slight increase. Auxiliary materials market : In March, both prebaked anode and fluoride salt prices pulled back, lowering aluminum auxiliary material costs. Entering April, the Middle East geopolitical conflict raised international oil prices, and higher costs continued to push up petroleum coke prices, which in turn supported higher prebaked anode prices. The April prebaked anode tender price at a large aluminum plant in Shandong rose 300 yuan/mt MoM; for aluminum fluoride, prices are also expected to rise significantly in April due to higher raw material costs. Overall, auxiliary material costs are expected to increase significantly in April. Electricity prices : Electricity prices were generally stable in March. Entering April, power prices are expected to remain broadly stable, and aluminum power costs are expected to hold steady. Overall, in March 2026, SMM expected the weighted average tax-inclusive full cost of dometstic aluminum industry to rise slightly; in April, it was expected to increase significantly MoM, with the average at around 16,150-16,550 yuan/mt.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 2.2 Futures: Last Friday's night session, the most-traded alumina futures contract AO2605 opened at 2,767 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,836 yuan/mt, hit a low of 2,748 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,818 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous day. Open interest decreased by 17,800 lots to 425,000 lots, indicating cautious market trading. From a technical perspective, the closing price was above MA5 (2,789.40), MA10 (2,746.30), and MA30 (2,758.17), providing some upward momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator DIF (2.91) crossed above DEA (-4.6), with the low-level golden cross continuing and the histogram at 15.02. Alumina futures are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Industry Updates: 1) In January 2026, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production decreased 1.78% MoM and 2.6% YoY. As of month-end January, nationwide existing capacity was approximately 110.32 million mt, with operating capacity down 1.78% MoM and 3.56% YoY. 2) On January 30, 2026, Chalco, a publicly listed firm under Chalco Group, issued an announcement regarding the planned acquisition of equity in a Brazilian aluminum company, aimed at enhancing resource security and optimizing industrial layout. The transaction will be conducted through a prudent and market-oriented approach. As a core holding enterprise under Chalco Group, Chalco possesses a complete entire industry chain. It plans to establish a joint venture in Brazil with Rio Tinto International Holdings Limited through its wholly-owned subsidiary Chalco Hong Kong Limited, and through this joint venture, acquire 68.596% equity in Mineração Rio do Norte (MRN) held by Votorantim. Upon completion, MRN will become a controlling subsidiary consolidated into Chalco's financial statements. This transaction introduces Rio Tinto, a partner with extensive international mining experience. Rio Tinto is a global comprehensive mineral resource supplier and one of the world's largest resource extraction and mineral product suppliers. The two parties have maintained a strong cooperative relationship over the years, achieving collaborative results in multiple areas including the Simandou iron ore project. 3) According to market sources, PT Kalimantan Alumina Nusantara (KAN), approximately 80% owned by Press Metal Group, is constructing an alumina refinery with an annual capacity of 1.2 million mt in West Kalimantan, Indonesia. The project is expected to gradually commence production by year-end 2026 or early 2027. 4) The Indonesian government is preparing to establish a new state-owned enterprise named Perminas, set up by the Daya Anagata Nusantara investment management agency, which will be responsible for the operational management of strategic mineral mines. Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia stated that Perminas will handle strategic commodities such as rare earth metals and other critical minerals, without specifying the types of minerals. When asked whether Perminas would soon take over existing mines, Bahlil said the government would closely monitor subsequent developments. Ore: As of January 30, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was at $64.38/mt, down $0.87/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price was at $39/mt, down $1.5/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was at $61/mt, down $1.5/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $62.5/mt, down $0.5/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was at $57.5/mt, down $0.5/mt from the previous trading day. The Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was at $47/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was at $61/mt, down $0.5/mt from the previous trading day. The Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was at $73.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The bauxite CFR (Turkey) price was at $71.5/mt, down $2/mt from last Friday. Domestic ore side, bauxite production resumptions in Shanxi were active, with currently ample supply and prices under pressure. Imported ore side, intended transaction prices between buyers and sellers recently declined from earlier levels, with current market transactions sluggish. Some alumina refineries reported that amid falling ore prices, procurement plans remained cautious. SMM will continue to monitor domestic and overseas mines production, port shipments, and price trends. Spot Prices: As of January 30, 2025, the SMM alumina index was at 2,622.71 yuan/mt, down 2.56 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,550.71 yuan/mt, down 0.27 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,620.79 yuan/mt, down 1.06 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,606.74 yuan/mt, down 0.82 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,698.06 yuan/mt, down 6.21 yuan/mt MoM. The SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,680.59 yuan/mt, down 11.07 yuan/mt MoM. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on January 30, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 139.29 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30 AM. Warrant Daily Report: On January 30, total registered alumina warrants increased by 9,583 mt from the previous trading day to 171,100 mt. Shandong region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 7,796 mt. Henan region alumina warrants remained unchanged at 0 mt. Guangxi region alumina warrants increased by 2,402 mt to 7,505 mt. Gansu region alumina warrants increased by 6,300 mt to 16,500 mt. Xinjiang region alumina warrants increased by 3,283 mt to 139,300 mt. Markets Outside China: As of January 30, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $308/mt, the ocean freight rate was $20.2/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.97. This translated to a domestic mainstream port selling price of approximately 2,663.86 yuan/mt, slightly above the SMM alumina index price by 41.15 yuan/mt. According to SMM model calculations, the import window was closed. Summary: Overall, as of last Thursday, China's alumina market inventory edged up slightly, with the overall oversupply pattern continuing. Currently, some alumina refineries have initiated maintenance, with enterprises across various regions arranging production shutdowns of varying scales, leading to a decline in industry operating rate and a weekly production decrease of 35,000 mt to 1.636 million mt. Inventory side, due to the increase in enterprises undergoing maintenance, alumina in-factory inventory decreased by 3,000 mt to 1.2408 million mt. Aluminum enterprise raw material inventory edged up slightly to 3.603 million mt, mainly driven by continued shipments under long-term contracts. Warrants, attracted by previously strong futures prices, saw increased delivery willingness, rising by 40,000 mt to 159,100 mt, while in-transit and platform inventory decreased by 30,000 mt as cargoes gradually arrived at end-users. Overall, although the pace of inventory buildup has slowed compared to earlier periods, overall industry inventory pressure persists, and the destocking progress has fallen short of expectations. Going forward, attention should be paid to the execution of enterprise maintenance plans. If supply-side contraction does not continue, inventory is expected to maintain a slight accumulation trend next week, and spot alumina prices will remain in the doldrums. [Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.]

SMM February 28 news: According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in February 2026 fell 0.9% MoM and dropped 5.7% YoY. During the period, alumina raw material costs and auxiliary material costs declined, and the total cost pulled back slightly. The average SMM A00 spot price (January 26–February 25) in February was largely stable, and aluminum profit margins expanded to 7,707 yuan/mt. If the industry calculates based on the monthly average price, 100% of domestic operating aluminum capacity was profitable in February. Cost breakdown: Alumina raw material side : SMM data showed the average SMM alumina index in February was 2,621 yuan/mt (January 26–February 25), down 1.7% MoM. Production cuts at alumina plants during the month shifted inventory to destocking, but after the holiday, some aluminum smelters proactively reduced inventory, resulting in actual demand being lower than theoretical demand. Prices saw only a slight rebound by month-end, and the monthly average price dropped MoM. Entering March, alumina prices face both bullish and bearish factors. On one hand, operating alumina capacity is expected to decline MoM; on the other hand, aluminum smelters’ proactive destocking is expected to reduce demand. Overall, alumina raw material prices are projected to change by a relatively small margin. Auxiliary material market side : Both prebaked anode and fluoride salt prices pulled back in February. In March, prebaked anode and aluminum fluoride prices are expected to maintain a slight downward trend, and auxiliary material costs are projected to decrease. Electricity price side : Electricity prices were generally stable in February, with slight declines in some regions, leading to a small drop in the national average aluminum power cost. Entering March, electricity prices are expected to remain largely stable, and aluminum power costs are projected to hold steady. Overall, SMM expects the weighted average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in March 2026 to be largely stable, averaging around 15,750–16,150 yuan/mt.

The Indonesian aluminum market remained stable during the 2026 Chinese New Year, with production unaffected and bauxite prices holding at USD 28–32 FOB amid RKAB uncertainty. Alumina prices also stayed steady at USD 308 FOB due to feedstock stability and a seasonal lull in Chinese buying activity.

[SMM Aluminum Weekly Review: Macro Sentiment Remains Lackluster, Aluminum Prices in the Doldrums]