SMM, July 1: Today, SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 22,565 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 22,755 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 22,245 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 22,370 yuan/mt, down 215 yuan/mt or 0.95% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 272,000 lots, and open interest stood at 287,000 lots, with a daily position decrease of 4,467 lots. The price has broken below all moving averages, widening the gap with MA5 (22,777) to over 400 points. MA10 (23,299.5), MA30 (24,013.67), and MA60 (24,421.75) are in a standard bearish alignment, accelerating the downtrend. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (-470.46) and DEA (-320.9) continue to diverge downward, with the histogram bar widening to -299.12, indicating persistently strengthening bearish momentum and no sign of the decline halting. Trading volume of 272,000 lots was below MA5 (317,300 lots), and the decline on shrinking volume suggests diminishing market participation. The daily position decrease of 4,467 lots indicates some bear profit-taking, but the trend has not yet reversed. SMM Comment: The dispute over administrative rights in the Strait of Hormuz persists, and the resumption of navigation through the strait remains uncertain. The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, putting pressure on nonferrous metal prices. Macro headwinds drove aluminum prices lower both in and outside China. Bearish factors dominate in the short term, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Today, alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,782 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 2,805 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 2,771 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 2,786 yuan/mt, down 4 yuan/mt or 0.14% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 158,800 lots, and open interest stood at 286,200 lots, with a daily position decrease of 569 lots. The price has broken below MA5 (2,803.6), MA30 (2,835.07), and MA60 (2,822.95), only temporarily holding below MA10 (2,846.4). MA5 has turned downward and is about to cross below MA60, a clear signal of a weakening moving average system. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (-6.18) has turned negative and is below DEA (6.65), with the histogram bar widening to -25.65, spreading downward after a death cross, indicating that short-term bearish momentum is dominant. Trading volume of 158,800 lots was below average volumes across all timeframes, and the decline on shrinking volume suggests a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. SMM Comment: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, China’s total alumina inventory edged down WoW. Inventory structure showed that aluminum smelters’ raw material inventory continued to destock slightly, but due to recent significant price fluctuations and divergent market outlooks, restocking willingness was weak, and end-users mostly stayed on the sidelines. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries decreased, mainly affected by phased maintenance at some northern enterprises, which prioritized consuming in-factory inventory amid production constraints. This impact is expected to gradually fade after maintenance concludes next week. Port inventory, meanwhile, continued to build up, with overseas port arrivals staying high and imported resources supplementing spot supply, adding market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Before Guinea’s bauxite quota policy is implemented, the market lacks clear bullish drivers. Next week, inventory is expected to shift from mild destocking to slight buildup, supply and demand will remain loose, and alumina prices will continue to consolidate in the doldrums. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]

In the short term, high raw material prices provide solid cost support for aluminum fluoride, but bearish constraints from weak downstream fluorine chemicals and the decline in long-term hydrofluoric acid contracts are also in play. Amid the tug-of-war, aluminum fluoride prices in July have little room for significant rise or fall, and the market will continue to consolidate at highs within a range.

SMM, June 30 According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina output in June 2026 fell by around 6.0% YoY and 5.5% MoM. Supply-side disruptions in the overseas alumina market became more evident compared with May. On the one hand, affected by tensions in the Middle East, production and shipment schedules at some producers have yet to fully recover. On the other hand, weather-related disruptions and natural gas supply issues in Australia continued to weigh on local alumina output and shipments. By company and region, Alcoa said that due to the impact of Cyclone Narelle in Australia, LNG supply to its Pinjarra alumina refinery in Western Australia was temporarily disrupted. As a result, the company expects its alumina shipments in Q2 to decrease by around 120,000 mt compared with Q1, while the disruption is expected to increase Q2 production costs by around $30 million. In addition, due to tensions in the Middle East, fuel costs at the company’s São Luís alumina refinery in Brazil also increased. Alcoa’s Western Australia alumina operations are currently under significant pressure from weak alumina prices, declining bauxite grades and rising energy costs. In Europe, geopolitical risks continued to escalate. During the EU’s new round of discussions on sanctions against Russia in June, exports of alumina from Ireland’s Aughinish Alumina to Russia remained under scrutiny. Public reports showed that alumina exports were not included in the latest EU sanctions package for the time being. However, if sanctions are tightened further, this could affect European alumina trade flows and the regional supply landscape. Entering June, with some Malaysian bauxite cargoes arriving, feedstock availability improved at certain alumina refineries in Indonesia, creating room for a subsequent recovery in output. However, Indonesia’s bauxite quota policy and logistics stability still need to be closely monitored. In addition, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan also discussed cooperation in alumina supply and aluminium product trade in June. Under the proposed arrangement, Azerbaijan would supply alumina to Tajikistan, while Tajikistan would export aluminium products to Azerbaijan. This cooperation is expected to have limited impact on overseas alumina output in the short term, but it reflects ongoing regional aluminium industry chain coordination and adjustments in trade flows. Looking ahead to July, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina supply is expected to see a recovery, with output likely to rise by around 4.5% MoM. On the one hand, raw material constraints at some Indonesian alumina refineries have eased following the arrival of bauxite cargoes, and output is expected to recover gradually. On the other hand, weather-related and natural gas supply disruptions in Australia are easing at the margin, which may support the recovery of previously affected production and shipment schedules. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, uncertainty over EU sanctions against Russia, energy cost pressure in Australia, and Indonesia’s bauxite quota issues may continue to disrupt the recovery of overseas supply. Overall, overseas alumina output is expected to rebound slightly in July, but supply-side uncertainty remains relatively high.

Alcoa Corporation expects alumina shipments from its Pinjarra refinery in Western Australia to decline by approximately 120,000 tonnes in the second quarter compared with the first quarter after Cyclone Narelle disrupted LNG supplies in March. The refinery, which has an annual alumina production capacity of 4.7 million tonnes, is expected to incur an additional USD30 million in production costs during the quarter. Alcoa also expects around USD15 million in extra fuel costs at its São Luís alumina refinery in Brazil due to ongoing Middle East tensions. The company noted that its alumina business is facing pressure from weak alumina prices and lower-quality bauxite supplies in Western Australia. Following the update, Alcoa shares fell 9.5%.

SMM, June 1， According to SMM data , the average all-in cost (tax-inclusive) of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry in May 2026 fell 1.9% month-on-month (MoM) and 2.2% year-on-year (YoY), primarily driven by declines in alumina prices and electricity prices during the period. Under the pressure of high inventory in May, domestic aluminum prices trended weak. The SMM A00 spot monthly average price (April 26 – May 25) edged down 0.8% MoM, while electrolytic aluminum profit margins expanded by RMB 110/mt to RMB 8,413/mt, with average profitability up 126.4% YoY. Based on monthly average price calculations, 100% of domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was profitable in May. Breaking down the cost components: Alumina feedstock: According to SMM data, the SMM Alumina Index averaged RMB 2,674/mt in May (April 26 – May 25), down 2.3% MoM. Although average daily alumina output edged slightly lower within the month, alumina market fundamentals remained relatively loose amid the impact of overseas alumina import supply, compounded by the gradual ramp-up of new projects in Guangxi. Spot alumina prices lacked upside momentum. Entering June, as newly commissioned capacity continues to ramp up and maintenance outages are progressively completed, domestic alumina output is expected to increase, with spot prices likely to consolidate sideways for the most part. Auxiliary materials: In May, pre-baked anodes and fluoride salts saw price increases supported by cost-side factors, pushing up auxiliary material costs. Entering June, the pass-through of earlier cost-side weakness, combined with a relatively loose supply landscape, is expected to lead to a modest decline in pre-baked anode prices. On the fluoride salt front, downstream producers have limited capacity to absorb high prices, although elevated costs still provide a degree of price support; amid this tug-of-war, fluoride salt prices are expected to slip modestly MoM. Overall, electrolytic aluminum auxiliary material costs are projected to decline in June. Electricity prices: Power prices fell MoM in May, primarily because the flood season is approaching, with electricity prices in water-rich southern regions declining notably, significantly reducing electrolytic aluminum power costs. Entering June, coal price dynamics may push electricity prices slightly higher in some provinces; however, with the southern flood season underway, power prices are expected to continue declining overall. On balance, electrolytic aluminum power costs are expected to remain broadly stable. Overall , the SMM weighted-average all-in cost (tax-inclusive) of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry edged lower in May 2026. Electrolytic aluminum costs in June are expected to remain relatively steady, with the average forecast at around RMB 15,800–16,200/mt .

Overall market trading activity was sluggish. At month-end, the market maintained a steady posture, watching for the outcome of the new round of aluminum fluoride tender prices. However, as the raw material side showed signs of easing, prices are expected to be slightly under pressure next month. Going forward, close attention should continue to be paid to dynamic changes on the raw material cost side, as well as marginal adjustments in the procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.

According to Hydro's official website, Hydro's adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2026 was NOK 8.668 billion, lower than NOK 9.516 billion in the same period last year. This was mainly due to lower raw material costs, higher metal prices, and increased sales of alumina and metals, but this was partially offset by lower alumina prices, a stronger NOK, and lower electricity generation. Hydro's profitability was strong this quarter, with adjusted earnings per share increasing to NOK 2.07 in the first quarter of 2026, compared to NOK 1.63 in the first quarter of 2025. The upstream business segment continued to operate strongly in the first quarter.

Overall, cost support remains strong, supply is tightening while demand is stable, and prices are expected to rise further next month. Close attention should be paid to dynamic changes in raw material costs and adjustments in downstream procurement pace going forward.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Norsk Hydro reported strong Q1 2026 performance, with adjusted EBITDA at NOK 8.67 billion, slightly down year-on-year due to currency and power impacts. Higher aluminum prices and increased alumina and metal sales supported earnings, while weaker alumina prices, a stronger NOK, and lower power production weighed on results. Adjusted EPS rose to NOK 2.07 (from NOK 1.63), though free cash flow was negative NOK 4 billion due to higher working capital tied to elevated metal prices and volumes. Return on capital employed (RoaCE) stood at 10.1%.

SMM News, April 27: On April 24, 2026, market rumors emerged that Guinea would cap its bauxite export volume at 150 million tons, with the relevant policy to be officially released on April 25. The news drove a sharp rise in alumina during the overnight session that day. The main alumina contract 2609 hit a high of 2,899 yuan per ton and closed at 2,894 yuan per ton, up 2.76% from the previous settlement price. As of April 25, 2026, no updated official policy documents had been released on relevant government websites in Guinea. Per market rumors, Guinea’s bauxite exports will be restricted to 150 million tons. Should the final policy be implemented as rumored, based on Guinea’s general bauxite trade flow ratios and historical shipment volumes, SMM estimates that domestic bauxite imports from Guinea will drop to approximately 132 million tons in 2026. Customs data for 2025 showed domestic imports of Guinea bauxite stood at around 149 million tons, Australian bauxite imports at roughly 37.42 million tons, and non-mainstream source bauxite imports at about 14.26 million tons. If Guinea bauxite imports fall to 132 million tons in 2026, Australian bauxite imports remain largely stable, and non-mainstream bauxite imports edge down to around 12.5 million tons, the total domestic bauxite import volume is projected to decline to roughly 182 million tons. SMM forecasts domestic bauxite output to reach 79 million tons in 2026 (including volumes supplied for non-metallurgical alumina production), putting the total domestic bauxite supply at approximately 261 million tons for the year. SMM estimates domestic metallurgical alumina output at 87.22 million tons in 2026, sufficient to support a annually aluminum production capacity of 45.3 million tons. The alumina market will shift to a net import status. Factoring in bauxite demand for non-metallurgical alumina segments, overall bauxite total demand is expected to hit around 262 million tons. On the whole, the bauxite market fundamentals are set to shift into a tight balance in 2026. Amid raw material inventory buildup demand from newly commissioned alumina capacity, the bauxite market is theoretically poised to face mild tight supply conditions. However, actual market performance is expected to be looser than modelled calculations, for the following key reasons: Electrolytic aluminum production cuts in the Middle East have exacerbated overseas alumina surplus, while global bauxite supply contraction has lifted price expectations. Rising domestic bauxite prices will push up local alumina production costs, further enhancing the cost competitiveness of overseas alumina. Higher alumina imports will replace part of bauxite imports, easing domestic bauxite supply tightness. Elevated inventory levels will ease market tightness. In 2025, high price incentives drove a substantial increase in bauxite supply, resulting in a notable supply surplus and sharp inventory accumulation.Data from SMM showed domestic port bauxite inventories stood at 21.32 million tons and bonded ore inventories at alumina refineries at about 57.06 million tons by early 2026, with combined inventories reaching 78.38 million tons. Ample inventory buffers will keep actual market conditions looser than theoretical projections. In summary, if Guinea finalizes its policy to cap total bauxite exports at 150 million tons with no major fluctuations in ocean freight rates, bauxite prices are expected to trend a little bit higher. Nevertheless, substantial overseas alumina surplus and increased substitutable alumina imports will cap upside potential for bauxite prices. Barring unforeseen black swan events, neither bauxite nor alumina prices are likely to replicate the strong rally seen from late 2024 to early 2025. In the short term, both buyers and sellers in the bauxite market are adopting a wait-and-see stance, pending official updates on Guinea’s new policy. Market sentiment remains cautious, and prices are projected to move in a volatile range ahead of clear policy guidance.