Indonesia's new nickel tariffs and Europe's CBAM have sharply raised overseas stainless steel costs, driving Asian mills to hike prices. Downstream demand remains mixed: Japan and South Korea are resilient, while the Taiwan, China region faces pressure. Wary of rapid price spikes, buyers are limiting purchases to rigid demand. The market will remain cautious until tariff details and actual demand are validated.

The current development of the gold price continues to cause frustration for many investors. Despite the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East and the war involving the USA and Israel against Iran, gold has so far failed to gain lasting new momentum from these events.

Gold is likely to continue playing an important role in central banks’ reserve portfolios in 2026. According to the World Gold Council, indications suggest that not only will already active central banks remain present in the market, but new buyers may also emerge.

Copper prices surged earlier in 2026 amid strong speculative inflows and rising futures positioning. However, physical demand has lagged, and inventories continue to build, creating a growing disconnect between financial pricing and real market fundamentals.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Support from the Macro Front Was Relatively Evident, and Tin Prices Were Expected to Maintain a Fluctuating Trend in the Short Term]

This week, nickel prices first fell and then rose, moving sideways amid a tug-of-war between macro fluctuations and supply-side policy. Early in the week, affected by a stronger US dollar and risk-off sentiment across global commodities, LME nickel once fell below the key $17,000 level. It then rebounded on easing tensions in the Middle East and policy expectations that Indonesia planned to impose a nickel export tax. As of Friday's close, the weekly price of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract rose 3%, while the LME nickel 3M contract gained 2.4% WoW. In the spot market, the average SMM price of #1 refined nickel was 138,030 yuan/mt this week, up 1,100 yuan/mt WoW. The average Jinchuan nickel premium was 5,900 yuan/mt this week, down 1,600 yuan/mt WoW. Premiums for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China ranged from -600-400 yuan/mt. Nickel plate premiums fell notably this week, and sluggish demand led to poor trading in the spot market. On the macro front, geopolitical risks continued to weigh on market risk appetite this week. According to US media reports, the US Department of Defense was formulating a "decisive lethal strike" military plan against Iran, which could include the deployment of ground forces and large-scale airstrikes. Although news of a ceasefire window had emerged earlier, risk-off sentiment did not truly fade. China's macro policy maintained a positive tone, and the pro-growth signals released at the Boao Forum boosted market confidence. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 1,700 mt this week, with destocking of 500 mt WoW. China's social inventory was about 90,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 1,300 mt WoW. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a tug-of-war between "strong cost support" and "weak actual demand" in the short term. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt. Cost-floor support provided by Indonesian policy remains solid, but macro pressure and weak demand will limit upside room.

Concluding our series, we shift focus to 2026's emerging NdFeB growth drivers: robotics, low-altitude economy, and electric two-wheelers. While viewed as the "second growth curve," we analyze their actual demand support amidst current macro and industry cycles to determine if they can offset traditional sector slowdowns.

SMM News, March 27: This week, quoted prices for scrap battery recycling diverged, at 9,250-9,450 yuan/mt. High-priced cargo collection squeezed traders' profits, while low-priced recycling saw limited volume growth; coupled with sluggish downstream consumption, relatively scarce retired resources, and end-users' reluctance to sell, this week's recycling volume was about half the normal level on a YoY basis. After Qingming Festival, more smelters were expected to resume production, supporting raw material demand, and attention should remain on lead prices as well as smelters' production, sales, and maintenance pace. > Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

[Silicon Metal Market Sees Rising Bargaining Sentiment, Focus on Changes in Supply-Side Operating Rates]: This week, the silicon metal market remained in a bargaining stalemate, with the price center of some specifications edging up slightly. As of March 26, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW. #441 silicon was at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, flat WoW, and #3303 silicon was at 10,200-10,400 yuan/mt, also flat WoW. In the futures market, affected by sentiment and expectations surrounding supply-side factors such as “self-discipline among silicon enterprises and anti-involution,” the most-traded silicon metal contract continued to hold up well over the past week, closing at 8,735 yuan/mt late on Thursday with a notable gain. In terms of quotations, silicon enterprises mostly kept shipment quotes stable, with some quotes testing slight increases; the quote center of trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market rose markedly, and low-priced cargoes disappeared. As downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, high-priced transactions in the market were difficult to conclude.

Silver has seen one of the sharpest pullbacks in recent years within just a few weeks. From the high of US$97.30 on March 2, the price fell to US$61.21 by March 23, losing around 37%. For the market, this was an abrupt break from the previous momentum.