Next week, on the macro economic data front, key releases are about to include the US March retail sales month-on-month rate and the final reading of the US April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. This week, Middle East peace talks experienced twists and turns, with some progress made but significant uncertainties remaining. The impact of the conflict on crude oil supply and logistics chains persisted, including sharp declines in air transport, surging maritime insurance costs, and extended shipping routes. The IMF further revised its forecast, projecting economic growth in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region to slow down to 1.4% in 2026. LME lead side, LME lead inventory showed a continuous declining trend over the past two months, with the decline accelerating in the recent two weeks, supporting lead price increases. Recently, Vietnam conducted environmental protection inspections on lead smelting operations, exacerbating the tightening of lead ingot circulation in the Southeast Asian market, with spot premiums rising. If Middle East developments progress positively, lead prices are expected to see their center shift further upward. LME lead is expected to trade in the range of $1,930-2,000/mt next week. SHFE lead side, China's lead-acid battery market was in the off-season, and lead ingot inventory rose, serving as a strong bearish factor for lead prices. Recently, secondary lead enterprises saw increased maintenance, and the import window for lead (refined lead) narrowed, with supply relatively tightening, partially offsetting the decline in consumption. Lead prices are expected to continue their volatile trend. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,550-16,950 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,450-16,700 yuan/mt. Lead consumption side, the off-season trend in the end-use market intensified, with downstream enterprises generally producing based on sales, and lead demand remained weak. Supply side, secondary lead enterprise maintenance and recovery expectations coexisted, and imported crude lead continued to flow in, limiting supply reductions. Additionally, after next week's delivery, supplies will re-enter the market. Spot lead is expected to remain trading at a discount.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are providing new tailwinds for the gold price, according to the French bank Natixis. In a precious metals report published last week, analysts argue that an escalation of the conflict between the US government and Iran could trigger a significant safe-haven impulse in the short term.

According to foreign media reports, Pakistan Aluminum Beverage Cans Limited (PABC) plans to build a new beverage can manufacturing plant in Afghanistan. The total investment is approximately US$110 million, with a designed production capacity of about 1.3 billion cans per year. PABC was established in December 2014 and is Pakistan's first and only aluminum beverage can manufacturer and exporter. The company began commercial production in September 2017 with an annual capacity of 700 million cans. By August 2025, the company's annual production capacity is projected to increase to 1.3 billion cans.

【SMM Macro News】Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Dar expressed welcome on social media for the ceasefire agreement reached between Pakistan and Afghanistan in Doha, Qatar on the evening of the 18th, stating that "this is Step-1 in the right direction."

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: New Tariff Developments Emerge! LME Zinc Records a Bearish Candlestick] Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,022.00/mt. At the beginning of the session, the price center rose rapidly, reaching a high of $3,060.00/mt. Entering the night session, bulls reduced their positions, and the zinc price declined to a low of $2,970.00/mt. Although it attempted to recover some losses toward the end of the session, the upward momentum was ultimately limited. It finally closed down at $2,984.50/mt, falling by $29.5/mt, a decline of 0.98%. Trading volume decreased to 117,000 lots, and open interest dropped by 54 lots to 220,000 lots.