[Slow Resumption of Downstream Work and Inactive Market]: Spot premiums in Tianjin rose slightly this week, up 5 yuan/mt WoW from pre-holiday levels. As of Friday, domestic generic brands were quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract, while premium brands were quoted at a premium of 10–40 yuan/mt against the 2603 contract. Tianjin market was quoted at a discount of about 20 yuan/mt against Shanghai market, narrowing the price spread between Shanghai and Tianjin.

This week (February 20–26), the SMM copper wire and cable enterprise operating rate was 27.72%, up 12.52 percentage points WoW. Since the eighth day of the first lunar month after the holiday, most wire and cable enterprises have resumed work gradually, but affected by the lagging recovery of end-users, they have not yet fully reached full production, with production mainly focused on executing pre-holiday orders on hand. By end-use sector, order structure showed significant divergence: orders from the power sector such as State Grid and China Southern Grid provided strong support, resulting in relatively good production schedules; orders from construction, communications, and other sectors performed weakly, with overall demand still in a rebound phase. Inventory side, after resuming work, enterprises mainly restocked cautiously, so raw material inventory this week increased 4.24% WoW; for finished product inventories, although enterprises prioritized inventory consumption, due to slow cargo pick-up by end-users, only a slight destocking was achieved, down 2.29% WoW. Looking ahead to next week, after the Lantern Festival, end-use industries will gradually resume work, and the pace of order release is expected to accelerate. SMM expects that next week (February 27–March 5) the copper wire and cable operating rate will increase 30.64 percentage points WoW to 58.36%, up 1.25 percentage points YoY compared to the second week after resumption last year.

[ SMM Tin Morning Brief: Night session sees the most-traded SHFE tin contract surge then maintain fluctuating trend; spot market trading remains sluggish ]

The US tariff reset is increasingly reshaping the ex-China battery market as a supply-chain design issue, not just a cost issue. With EV growth slowing and volatility rising, ESS—driven by project-based infrastructure demand—can provide a utilization and cash-flow buffer. As a result, “localization × ESS” execution and product-mix flexibility (including LFP) are becoming more central to competitiveness.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: LME copper opened at $13,317/mt overnight, fluctuated rangebound after opening, then touched a low of $13,168/mt, and subsequently the center rose to touch a high of $13,348/mt, finally closing at $13,259/mt, down 0.68%. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, a decrease of 809 lots from the previous trading day; open interest reached 316,000 lots, a decrease of 4,795 lots from the previous trading day, overall mainly showing bulls reducing positions. The most-traded SHFE copper contract opened at 102,670 yuan/mt overnight, fluctuated downward after opening, then touched a low of 101,780 yuan/mt, and subsequently the center rose to touch a high of 102,880 yuan/mt, finally closing at 102,550 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. Trading volume reached 55,000 lots, a decrease of 51,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest reached 186,000 lots, an increase of 1,437 lots from the previous trading day, overall mainly showing bears increasing positions.

According to precious metals and refinery services provider Heraeus, the gold price continues to show a consolidation phase. Following record highs at the end of December, the market is currently moving sideways within a clearly defined trading range rather than forming a pronounced upward or downward trend.

In recent years, the PV industry has entered a period of deep adjustment, with module prices continuing to decline, and both upstream and downstream segments of the industry chain facing severe profit compression. Driven by the imperative of "extreme cost reduction," PV glass, a key auxiliary material for PV modules, has imposed increasingly stringent requirements on the cost and quality of upstream raw materials.

Under a no-policy-impact scenario, SMM estimates Zimbabwe's total lithium production to reach 200,000 tonnes LCE in 2026, accounting for 9% of global primary lithium supply. Following the export ban, as official implementing rules have not yet been released by the authorities, SMM has developed three scenarios to assess the impact on global lithium supply: 1. If only lithium sulfate can be exported: Zimbabwe could supply 17,000–35,000 tonnes LCE in 2026, representing 8%–16% of the country's original supply capacity, a reduction of 170,000–190,000 tonnes LCE. 2. If companies with processing capacity can export both lithium concentrate and lithium sulfate: Zimbabwe could supply 90,000–140,000 tonnes LCE in 2026, representing 45%–70% of the country's original supply capacity, a reduction of 60,000–110,000 tonnes LCE. 3 . With beneficiation capacity, enterprises can export spodumene concentrate + lithium sulfate. In 2026, Zimbabwe's lithium resource supply is expected to reach nearly 150,000-170,000 tons, accounting for 75%-85% of the previously projected supply, representing a decrease of 30,000-50,000 tons compared to the earlier forecast. Assuming the ban on raw ore and lithium concentrate exports remains in effect throughout 2026, while lithium sulfate exports are permitted, SMM's assessment of the impact magnitude is as follows: 1 . Timeline of Public Information on Zimbabwe's Lithium Export Restrictions Source: SMM compilation based on public information 2. 2026 No-Policy-Impact Scenario SMM estimates Zimbabwe's lithium supply would reach 200,000 tonnes LCE in 2026, representing: Over 15% year-on-year growth from 2025 10% of global primary lithium supply in 2026 17% of global spodumene supply in 2026 3. Major Operating Mines in Zimbabwe Major Lithium Mining Projects in Zimbabwe Source: SMM compilation based on public information Notes : Based on public information: Zimbabwe's average spodumene grade ranges from 1.06–1.98%, with concentrate grades of 4.0–5.5%. Conversion ratio: 9.5:1 (concentrate to LCE) Petalite grades range from 0.8–1.8%, with concentrate grades of 3.0–4.2%. Conversion ratio: 16:1 (concentrate to LCE) References also made to individual companies' public disclosures Project Updates: Arcadia and Bikita submitted beneficiation plans to Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines in 2024 Arcadia: Lithium sulfate project construction began in January 2025, with initial design capacity of 50,000 tonnes. Commissioning began in October 2025, currently in ramp-up stage. Lithium sulfate exports experienced some delays in mid-to-late February 2025 Bikita: Announced in its May 2025 investor relations presentation that it plans to complete 10,000 tonnes lithium sulfate construction by end-2025, and commence 20,000 tonnes construction in 2026 Kamativi: Announced on February 26, 2026, that its Zimbabwe lithium sulfate project has commenced construction 4. China's Lithium Spodumene Imports (2025) Zimbabwe supplied over 1.2 million tonnes of spodumene to China in 2025, accounting for approximately 15% of China's total imports. Lithium Spodumene Imports by Source Country (2025) Source: China Customs, SMM compilation 5. Project Comparison: Arcadia Lithium Sulfate Plant Construction and Ramp-Up Timeline Construction to commissioning takes approximately one year. If the export ban remains in effect throughout 2026: Arcadia and Bikita are confirmed to be able to export lithium sulfate Based on Kamativi's February 26, 2026 public announcement, it may also be able to export lithium sulfate. As Kamativi's capacity plans have not yet been disclosed, certain assumptions have been made regarding its output. No-Policy-Impact Baseline: Zimbabwe's Expected Total Output Approaching 200,000 Tonnes LCE in 2026. Scenario Analysis: Impact of Export Ban on Supply (1) Only lithium sulfate can be exported: a. No export procedure required (Arcadia + Bikita + Kamativi): Zimbabwe will have an exportable lithium resource volume of 30,000–35,000 tons LCE in 2026, accounting for 16% of the country's total annual lithium supply, with an affected volume of nearly 170,000 tons LCE; b. Export permit application process required for lithium sulfate (policy pending clarification, assuming a two-month processing period) (Arcadia + Bikita + Kamativi): Zimbabwe will have an exportable lithium resource volume of 17,000 tons LCE in 2026, accounting for 8% of the country's total annual lithium supply, with an affected volume of nearly 190,000 tons LCE. (2) Companies with smelting capacity can export both lithium concentrate and lithium sulfate: a. No export procedure required (Arcadia + Bikita + Kamativi): Zimbabwe will have an exportable lithium resource volume of 140,000 tons LCE in 2026, accounting for 70% of the country's total annual lithium supply, with an affected volume of nearly 60,000 tons LCE; b. Export permit application process required for lithium concentrate+ lithium sulfate (policy pending clarification, assuming a two-month processing period) (Arcadia + Bikita + Kamativi): Zimbabwe will have an exportable lithium resource volume of nearly 90,000 tons LCE in 2026, accounting for 45% of the country's total annual lithium supply, with an affected volume of nearly 110,000 tons LCE. (3) Enterprises with beneficiation capacity may apply to export spodumene concentrate + lithium sulfate: a. If the export procedure takes one month to complete (policy not yet clarified; this is an estimate only): Zimbabwe is expected to be able to export approximately 170,000 tons LCE of lithium resources in 2026, accounting for 85% of the country's originally projected annual supply, with a reduction of nearly 30,000 tons LCE. b. If the export procedure takes two months to complete (policy not yet clarified; this is an estimate only): Zimbabwe is expected to be able to export approximately 150,000 tons LCE of lithium resources in 2026, accounting for 75% of the country's originally projected annual supply, with a reduction of nearly 50,000 tons LCE.

Iron ore futures rebounded slightly today, with the most-traded contract I2605 closing at 752.5 yuan/mt, up 1.42% from the previous trading day. Spot prices rose by 5–10 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. Traders' shipment enthusiasm was moderate, steel mills' inquiries were moderate, but purchase willingness was average. Overall market trading activity was sluggish. According to the SMM survey, on February 25, the blast furnace operating rate of 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM was 87.19%, up 0.23 percentage points WoW from before the holiday. Daily average hot metal output from sampled steel mills was 2.3937 million mt, up 7,700 mt WoW from before the holiday. This week, although individual steel mills suspended production due to unexpected blast furnace accidents, the duration was short. Overall hot metal output still increased, providing some support for ore prices. In addition, with the approaching Two Sessions and increasing real estate news recently, market sentiment improved, and ore prices rebounded along with the industry. However, considering environmental protection-driven production restrictions in north China during the Two Sessions may curb iron ore demand, upward resistance for ore prices remains significant, and prices may fluctuate rangebound in the short term.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment: Significant Zinc Ingot Inventory Buildup During Chinese New Year, SHFE Zinc Pulls Back in Night Session] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2604 contract opened at 24,585 yuan/mt. Initially, SHFE zinc rose slightly to touch a high of 24,710 yuan/mt, then fluctuated and pulled back below the daily average line. During the session, it probed a low of 24,510 yuan/mt and continued to fluctuate at lows, eventually closing down at 24,550 yuan/mt, a decrease of 130 yuan/mt.