SMM June 4 News: Metal Market: Overnight, domestic market base metals rose across the board, with SHFE tin up 1.54%, SHFE copper up 0.5%, SHFE nickel up 0.25%, SHFE lead up 0.36%, SHFE aluminum up 0.25%, and SHFE zinc up 0.52%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 1.27%. Overnight, the ferrous metals series all rose, with iron ore up 1.58%, stainless steel up 0.2%, rebar up 0.61%, and HRC up 1.15%. For coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 3.07%, and coke rose 2.05%. Overnight, in the overseas metal market, LME base metals generally rose, with LME copper up 0.23%, LME aluminum up 0.18%, LME lead up 0.25%, LME zinc up 0.5%, LME tin up 2.41%, and LME nickel down 0.4%. Overnight, in the precious metals market: COMEX gold fell 0.6%, and COMEX silver fell 0.05%. Overnight, SHFE gold fell 0.46%, and SHFE silver rose 0.2%. As of 8:22 on June 4, overnight closing prices 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: [Five departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, organize the 2025 NEV Rural Promotion Campaign] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Ministry of Commerce, and the National Energy Administration are organizing the 2025 NEV Rural Promotion Campaign. A number of special events will be held in typical county-level cities with low NEV promotion rates and significant market potential. These events will serve as hubs to radiate to surrounding towns, with a number of characteristic events organized based on regional characteristics. Synergies will be formed with pilot programs such as the charging and battery swapping infrastructure improvement in counties and the "vehicle-road-cloud integration" pilot for intelligent connected vehicles, promoting the allocation of high-quality resources to rural areas. Market entities in various fields, including NEV production, sales, finance, charging and battery swapping, and after-sales services, are encouraged to participate together. By combining policy tools such as trade-in policies and the improvement of charging and battery swapping infrastructure in counties, an integrated sales promotion plan of "car purchase discounts + energy use support + service guarantees" will be customized, and a comprehensive after-sales service network covering the entire lifecycle of car purchase, use, and maintenance will be established. [Two departments: Support green electricity application and encourage key energy-consuming entities to use green electricity] The NDRC and the National Energy Administration issued opinions on deepening the improvement of the "getting electricity" service level and comprehensively creating a modernized business environment for electricity consumption. Among them, it was mentioned that support should be given to the application of green electricity and facilitate the connection of green electricity to the grid. Provincial energy (electricity) authorities will take the lead in organizing the disclosure of information on the assessment of the carrying capacity of distributed PV access to the grid and organize power supply enterprises to formulate targeted improvement measures to promote the coordinated development of distribution networks and distributed new energy sources. Promote green electricity consumption. Power supply enterprises should establish and improve a long-term service mechanism for publicity and promotion, encourage and guide key energy-consuming entities to use green electricity, and stimulate the potential for green electricity consumption across society. Support green travel. Local energy (electricity) authorities should organize power supply enterprises to optimize and improve the electricity connection application service mechanism for EV charging (battery swapping) facilities, further simplify the application documents for residential users, and continuously enhance the efficiency of electricity connection services. Power supply enterprises should provide electricity connection services for e-bike charging facilities in accordance with the "three zeros" policy requirements, fully implement the task of comprehensive safety hazard rectification for e-bikes, and effectively safeguard the public's demand for green travel. [119 million domestic trips made during the 2025 Dragon Boat Festival holiday, up 5.7% YoY] According to calculations by the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, over the three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday, 119 million domestic trips were made nationwide, up 5.7% YoY; the total domestic tourism expenditure reached 42.73 billion yuan, up 5.9% YoY. US dollar: The overnight US dollar index rose 0.59% to close at 99.27. The market is also closely monitoring the US non-farm payrolls data and speeches by several US Fed officials on Friday for clues on interest rate policy. US data released on Tuesday showed that job openings increased in April, but layoffs also rose, indicating that the US labour market is cooling amid growing tariff concerns. The US employment report for May, to be released on Friday, may further reinforce this weakening confidence. Surveys of economists suggest that after an increase of 177,000 jobs in April, non-farm payrolls are expected to rise by 130,000 in May. The US unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.2%, but the risk of it rising to 4.3% is not insignificant. US Fed officials once again advocated for caution in monetary policy on Tuesday, as trade disputes continue to inject significant uncertainty and the risk of economic weakness into the economic outlook. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday that inflation caused by US import tariffs may soon become apparent, but he noted that it would take longer to see the tariffs lead to a slowdown in the US economy. Other currencies: The OECD has revised down its 2025 GDP forecast for Japan to 0.7% (from 1.1% previously), while raising its 2026 forecast to 0.4% (from 0.2% previously); it is expected that the Bank of Japan will further raise interest rates. (Financial Link) The consumer price inflation rate in the eurozone fell to 1.9% in May, down from 2.2% in April and below market expectations of 2.0%. This is the first time since September 2024 that the inflation rate has fallen below the ECB's 2.0% target, further strengthening market expectations for a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the ECB this week, which could be the last rate cut in the current easing cycle. The main reason for the slowdown in inflation was a significant drop in service inflation, which fell from 4.0% in April to 3.2%, the lowest level since March 2022. Energy prices continued to decline, falling 3.6% YoY, while non-energy industrial product inflation remained at 0.6%. Prices for food, alcohol, and tobacco accelerated, rising to 3.3% YoY from 3.0% the previous month. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) fell to 2.3%, the lowest level since January 2022. (Huitong Finance) Data Aspects: Today, data including Australia's Q1 seasonally adjusted GDP quarter-on-quarter rate, Australia's Q1 GDP year-on-year rate, Russia's May SPGI Services PMI, the final UK May SPGI Services PMI, the US May ADP employment change, Canada's May total reserve assets, Brazil's May seasonally adjusted SPGI Services PMI, the Bank of Canada's overnight lending rate on June 5, and the US May ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released. Additionally, notable events include: 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee participating in a Q&A session; 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, along with Fed Governor Lisa Cook, attending the "Fed Listens" event; and the Bank of Canada announcing its interest rate decision. Crude Oil Aspects: Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose, with WTI up 1.31% and Brent up 1.52%. Ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as between the US and Iran, have sparked supply concerns, supporting oil prices. Russia is a member of the OPEC group (including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies). According to US energy data, Russia was the world's second-largest crude oil producer in 2024, second only to the US. Iran is the third-largest crude oil producer in OPEC, after Saudi Arabia and Iraq. In Canada, it is estimated that wildfires in Alberta have affected over 344,000 barrels per day of oil sands production, accounting for approximately 7% of the country's total crude oil output. Preliminary survey results released on Monday indicated that US crude oil inventories likely fell last week, while distillate and gasoline inventories may have risen. Before the weekly inventory report was released, the average forecast of four surveyed analysts was that US crude oil inventories fell by approximately 900,000 barrels in the week ending May 30. (Webstock Inc.)

During the Labour Day holiday, risk events piled up in global financial markets. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged as expected and lowered its economic growth forecast. The robust US April non-farm payrolls report pushed back expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. OPEC agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June and is expected to further accelerate the pace of production increases. The US economy contracted for the first time in three years in Q1, as businesses stockpiled goods ahead of tariff implementation, leading to record imports. US manufacturing contracted further in April, with tariffs squeezing supply chains and keeping input prices elevated. Initial jobless claims in the US rose to a two-month high, exceeding market expectations. US stocks climbed steadily, with the three major indices hitting fresh highs in over a month, focusing on the Fed's policy outlook. Japanese stocks rose for the seventh consecutive trading day, marking the longest winning streak since August 2023. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index hit a nearly one-month high amid signs of easing trade tensions. The US dollar index pulled back from three-week highs, supported by strong employment data and a relaxation in trade tensions. The offshore yuan strengthened past the 7.20 mark against the US dollar for the first time since November last year. In commodities, CBOT soybeans bottomed out and rebounded, having briefly touched a two-week low, influenced by trade war sentiment. LME copper continued to rebound in May, with hopes pinned on an easing of trade tensions. Gold prices rebounded from a two-week low, weighed down by a robust jobs report. Oil prices continued to probe lower amid concerns over increased supply due to OPEC's accelerated production increases. **US Stocks Rise for Second Consecutive Week** US stocks rose significantly during the Labour Day holiday, with the weekly index rising for the second consecutive week. The three major indices hit fresh highs in over a month, supported by strong economic data and the potential easing of trade tensions. The US added 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. The data helped alleviate concerns about an economic slowdown. Earlier, the US Commerce Department reported that US GDP contracted for the first time in three years, impacted by a surge in tariff-induced imports. The Fed's meeting this week will test the significant rebound in US stocks, with investors expecting the Fed to resume interest rate cuts in the coming months. Although the market widely expects the Fed to keep borrowing costs unchanged when it issues its monetary policy statement on Wednesday, market pricing suggests that the Fed may cut interest rates as early as June. **US Dollar Index Pulls Back from Three-Week High** The US dollar rose to a three-week high during the Labour Day holiday. Despite the contraction in US GDP, other data suggested the economy remained resilient, while investors assessed the prospects of a deal between the US and its trading partners. The US economy contracted in Q1, worse than market expectations but better than the pessimistic forecasts of some major US banks. The US Commerce Department reported that US GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% in Q1 on a QoQ basis. The world's largest economy added more jobs than expected in April, reflecting a stable labour market. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Bureau of Labor Statistics said that non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, with the March figure revised down to an increase of 185,000 from a previous increase of 228,000. The April unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, helping to ease concerns about an imminent US recession. The jobs report strengthened expectations that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged at its next few meetings and not cut rates until summer. **CBOT Soybeans Bottom Out and Rebound** US soybeans bottomed out and rebounded during the Labour Day holiday, with the weekly index rising 1.19%. They touched a two-week low on the last trading day of April, mainly influenced by trade war sentiment. Entering May, they rebounded from a two-week low amid hopes of an easing of trade tensions. The US Department of Agriculture's export sales report released on Thursday showed that net export sales of soybeans for the current marketing year in the US increased by 428,200 mt in the week ended April 24, up 55% from the previous week and 27% from the four-week average. Market estimates ranged from a net increase of 150,000 mt to a net increase of 600,000 mt. On May 2 (Friday), data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that large speculators reduced their net long positions in CBOT soybean futures and options by 59 lots to 5,768 lots in the week ended April 29. **LME Copper Rebounds After Initial Decline** LME copper futures bottomed out and rebounded during the Labour Day holiday, having fallen over 3% on the last trading day of April and 6% for the month, the largest monthly decline since June 2022, dragged down by lingering trade uncertainties. US Comex copper futures fell 5.5% on Wednesday, with the sharp decline attributed to investors liquidating arbitrage positions held in anticipation of US tariffs on copper. Entering May, LME copper continued to rebound, with hopes pinned on an easing of trade tensions providing support for copper prices. Copper inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) fell 23.5% from last Friday to 89,307 mt, the lowest since January 17, providing support for copper prices. Inventories plunged nearly one-third last week. Data released by the CFTC showed that speculators increased their net long positions in COMEX copper futures and options by 3,424 lots to 20,013 lots in the week ended April 29. The London Metal Exchange (LME) market was closed on Monday (May 5) for the UK's early May bank holiday and resumed trading on Tuesday (May 6). **NYMEX Crude Oil Continues to Probe Lower** International oil prices continued to probe lower during the Labour Day holiday, with both major benchmarks hitting new lows since April 9. In April, Brent crude futures fell 18%, and US crude futures fell 18%, the largest monthly decline since November 2021. Oil prices suffered their largest weekly decline since late March last week. Brent crude fell over 8%, and US crude fell about 7.7%. Concerns over increased supply arose as OPEC is expected to further accelerate production increases. Eight OPEC countries agreed on Saturday to increase oil production by 411,000 bpd in June. Barclays and ING lowered their Brent crude forecasts following the OPEC decision. Barclays cut its Brent crude forecast for 2025 by $4 to $66 per barrel and its 2026 forecast by $2 to $60 per barrel, while ING expects the average price of Brent crude this year to fall to $65 from a previous estimate of $70. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that US crude oil inventories fell unexpectedly last week due to increased exports and refinery demand, while gasoline inventories declined for the ninth consecutive week. The EIA said that US crude oil inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels to 440.4 million barrels in the week ended April 25, while analysts surveyed by Reuters expected an increase of 429,000 barrels. The EIA said that crude oil inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, futures delivery hub rose by 682,000 barrels last week. Data released by the CFTC showed that fund managers increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options in the week ended April 29. The data showed that speculators increased their net long positions in WTI crude oil futures and options in New York and London by 2,716 lots to 116,599 lots in the week. **Gold Prices Rebound from Two-Week Low** Gold prices bottomed out and rebounded during the Labour Day holiday, having briefly touched a two-week low and falling for the second consecutive week, weighed down by an easing of trade tensions and a robust jobs report. Gold prices rose over 2% on Monday, driven by a weaker US dollar and safe-haven demand, as the market awaited the Fed's policy decision later in the week. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Bureau of Labor Statistics said that non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, compared with an expected increase of 130,000, with the March increase revised down to 185,000. Following the report, traders bet that the Fed would wait until July to begin cutting interest rates, having previously expected a cut in June. Barclays and Goldman Sachs also pushed back their estimates for interest rate cuts from June to July. Data released by the CFTC showed that speculators reduced their net long positions in COMEX gold futures and options by 9,857 lots to 115,865 lots in the week ended April 29. In the same week, speculators increased their net long positions in COMEX silver futures and options by 5,078 lots to 31,252 lots. US Data: The US economy contracted for the first time in three years in Q1, as businesses imported heavily to avoid cost increases caused by tariffs, underscoring the disruptive nature of President Trump's chaotic trade policies. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis said that US GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% on a QoQ basis in Q1, the first contraction since Q1 2022. Another report on monthly consumer spending showed that consumer spending rose 0.7% in March, higher than the expected increase of 0.5%. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the US economy. The ADP National Employment Report showed that private sector job growth in the US slowed more than expected in April. Only 62,000 jobs were added, with the March increase revised down to 147,000. Economists had previously forecast 115,000 job additions in April. US manufacturing contracted for the second consecutive month in April, with tariffs on imported goods putting pressure on supply chains, keeping factory ex-factory prices elevated, and prompting some companies to lay off workers. The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Thursday that its manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 48.7 in April from 49.0 in March, the lowest in five months. A PMI below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10.2% of the economy. A report released by the Labor Department showed that initial jobless claims rose by 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 241,000 in the week ended April 26. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Bureau of Labor Statistics said that non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, with the March figure revised down to an increase of 185,000 from a previous increase of 228,000. Economists had previously forecast 130,000 job additions in April. The April unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, helping to ease concerns about an imminent US recession. The US services PMI rose 0.8 points MoM to 51.6 in April, with the index measuring prices paid by businesses for materials and services surging to its highest level in over two years, indicating that tariff-induced inflationary pressures are increasing. The survey showed that US services companies are concerned about the impact of Trump's tariffs on prices and a sharp drop in federal spending due to the government's pursuit of significant spending cuts. **OPEC Agrees to Increase Oil Production by 411,000 bpd in June** Eight OPEC countries agreed on May 3 to increase oil production by 411,000 bpd in June. In a statement, OPEC said that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining market stability amid current healthy oil market fundamentals and raised production. OPEC said that its policy of gradually increasing production may be paused or reversed depending on changes in market conditions. The statement also said that the eight OPEC countries would hold their next meeting on June 1. Risk events in financial markets remain abundant after the holiday. The Fed begins a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday and will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Although the market widely expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, the focus will be on when the Fed may restart its easing cycle and whether policy action will be taken at the June meeting. China will release its April trade data on May 9 and April inflation data on May 10. In addition, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and meeting minutes on Thursday.

SMM May 6 News: ※Holiday Financial Market Performance Metal Market: Domestic Metal Market: The domestic metal market was closed during the Labour Day holiday. A review of the market performance of domestic base metals on April 30 showed that all domestic metals fell: SHFE nickel dropped 0.61%, SHFE lead fell 0.59%, SHFE zinc declined 0.42%, SHFE tin decreased 0.35%, SHFE aluminum fell slightly, and the main alumina contract fell 2.81% on April 30. The ferrous metals series also declined on April 30, with coke leading the losses at 0.97%, while iron ore, rebar, HRC, stainless steel, and coking coal all fell within 0.8%. Overseas Metal Market: The London Metal Exchange (LME) market was closed on May 5 for the UK's early May bank holiday. During the Labour Day holiday, the LME market traded normally on May 1 and May 2. LME metals generally rose during the holiday, with LME copper leading the gains at 2.53%, followed by LME aluminum and LME zinc, which rose 1.78% and 1.34%, respectively. LME nickel increased 0.68% during the holiday. Both LME lead and LME tin fell, with LME lead dropping 0.67% and LME tin declining 1.48%. Precious Metals: During the Labour Day holiday, COMEX precious metals showed mixed performance, with COMEX gold rising 1.34% and COMEX silver falling 0.44%. Jim Wyckoff, Senior Analyst at Kitco Metals, said, "We are seeing continued safe-haven demand flows keeping gold prices elevated... At least in the short term, gold will trade above $3,000. I don't expect any changes in interest rates at this meeting, but we will be watching to see if the Fed has any particular leanings." A report released by the World Gold Council showed that global gold prices hit record highs 20 times in Q1, leading to a 21% YoY decline in global gold jewelry consumption, the lowest level since 2020. Goldman Sachs stated in a report on Monday that gold will continue to outperform silver, citing strong central bank demand for gold as a factor contributing to the structural rise in the gold-to-silver ratio. Therefore, the bank expects silver not to keep pace with gold's sustained rally. However, given the strong correlation in capital flows, a recovery in gold demand in 2025 could also boost silver prices. (Webstock Inc.) Hong Kong Stock Market: The Hong Kong stock market was closed on May 1 for Labour Day and on May 5 for Buddha's Birthday. During the Labour Day holiday, the market only traded normally on May 2. By the close on May 2, the Hong Kong stock market surged, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 1.74% and the Hang Seng Tech Index closing up 3.08%. Tech stocks rallied across the board, with Xiaomi Group rising over 6%, Alibaba up 3.8%, Tencent up 2.22%, and Kingsoft Cloud up over 4%. WuXi Biologics rose 5.7%, and MicroPort Scientific rose 5.82%. US Stock Market: During the Labour Day holiday, all three major US stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones gaining 1.35%, the S&P 500 rising 1.46%, and the Nasdaq increasing 2.28%. Metal and Crude Oil Futures Quotes as of 8:35 AM on May 6 》SMM Metal Spot Prices on April 30 US Dollar: During the Labour Day holiday, the US dollar index rose slightly by 0.15%, closing at 99.8 on May 5. The market is awaiting comments from Fed Chairman Powell on Wednesday for clues on the interest rate path. The Fed has maintained its policy rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range since December. It is expected that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at this meeting, but this may be the last time the outcome is so clear, as Trump's tariff policies have cast a shadow of uncertainty over the economic outlook. Trump's tariff policies are causing headaches for Fed officials, who are weighing the impact of tariffs on economic slowdown and rising inflation. Previously released data showed that the US economy contracted in Q1 for the first time since 2022. US Dollar vs. Offshore Renminbi: During the Labour Day holiday, the US dollar generally fell against the offshore renminbi, with a cumulative decline of 0.94% during the holiday. The US dollar fell to a low of 7.1846 against the offshore renminbi during the May 5 trading session and closed at 7.2010. US Dollar vs. Offshore Renminbi Trend as of 8:42 AM on May 6 Other Currencies: In Europe, the market expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with Sweden and Norway also set to make interest rate decisions. Macro: This week, data to be released include China's April Caixin Services PMI, the final UK April SPGI Services PMI, the Global Leading Indicator for Turning Points in the Industrial Production Cycle for April (irregular), the US March trade balance, the Canadian March trade balance, the Canadian April IVEY seasonally adjusted PMI, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for April, New Zealand's Q1 unemployment rate, New Zealand's Q1 labor force participation rate, China's April foreign exchange reserves, Russia's April SPGI Services PMI, France's March trade balance, the Eurozone's March retail sales MoM and YoY rates, the Canadian April leading indicator MoM rate, the upper and lower limits of the US May federal funds rate target, the Hong Kong SAR's May 8 base rate, Germany's March seasonally adjusted industrial production MoM rate, Germany's March working-day adjusted industrial production YoY rate, Germany's March seasonally adjusted exports MoM rate, the UK's May central bank benchmark interest rate, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 3, the US continuing jobless claims for the week ending April 26, the final US March wholesale inventories MoM rate, the US April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, the US April New York Fed 3-year inflation expectations, China's April trade balance, China's April export and import YoY rates, Switzerland's Q2 consumer confidence index (seasonally adjusted), China's April M2 money supply YoY rate, China's April social financing scale (year-to-date), China's April new RMB loans (year-to-date), changes in Canada's April employment, Canada's April unemployment rate, China's April PPI YoY rate, and China's April CPI YoY rate. Notably: On May 6, the Dalian Commodity Exchange's call auction for all contracts will take place from 08:55-09:00 AM; night session trading will resume that evening. The Seoul Stock Exchange will be closed on May 6 for Children's Day. Also to be watched: The European Central Bank holds its Central Bank Forum until May 7; the Fed's FOMC announces its interest rate decision; Fed Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference; the Bank of England announces its interest rate decision; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivers a speech; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a keynote speech; Fed Governor Cook delivers a speech; 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee delivers a speech; Fed Governor Barr delivers a speech; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Waller deliver a speech; 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hamrick, and Fed Governor Bowman deliver speeches at a panel meeting. Crude Oil: During the Labour Day holiday, both WTI and Brent crude oil futures fell, with WTI dropping 1.7% and Brent declining 1.29%. OPEC's decision to accelerate production increases has sparked market concerns about a rise in global supply amid uncertain demand prospects, putting pressure on oil prices. On Saturday, OPEC agreed for the second consecutive month to further accelerate oil production increases, with output rising by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June. Production increases by eight OPEC members in June will bring the total production increase for April, May, and June to 960,000 bpd. Based on calculations, this means that 44% of the 2.2 million bpd in production cuts agreed upon through multiple agreements since 2022 have been unwound. OPEC sources said that if member countries fail to better comply with their production quotas, the organization may fully unwind voluntary production cuts by the end of October. ING and Barclays also lowered their forecasts for Brent crude oil after OPEC's decision. Barclays reduced its 2025 Brent crude oil average price forecast by $4 to $66 per barrel and its 2026 forecast by $2 to $60 per barrel, while ING expects Brent crude oil to average $65 per barrel this year, down from a previous forecast of $70. Goldman Sachs stated in a report on Sunday that it had lowered its oil price forecasts following OPEC's decision to accelerate production increases. The bank now expects Brent crude oil to average $60 per barrel for the remainder of 2025 and $56 per barrel in 2026, down $2 from its previous expectations.

SMM April 10 News: Concerns over US tariffs potentially fueling inflation and hindering global economic growth have highlighted gold's value as a "safe haven." According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market currently sees a 72% chance of a US Fed interest rate cut in June. Rising expectations for a Fed rate cut, coupled with the US dollar's credit overextension, frequent geopolitical conflicts, and China's central bank increasing its gold reserves for five consecutive months, have all driven the rise in precious metals. As of around 13:15 on April 10, COMEX gold rose 2.25% to $3,148.7 per ounce; COMEX silver rose 2.42% to $31.15 per ounce; SHFE gold rose 3.11% to 743.74 yuan per gram; SHFE silver rose 3.09% to 7,947 yuan per kilogram; silver T+D rose 3.66% to 7,961 yuan per kilogram. Alongside the surge in precious metal futures, the precious metals stock sector also saw a significant rally. As of around 13:16 on April 10, the precious metals sector led all industries with a 7.29% gain. Among individual stocks, Sichuan Gold hit the daily limit, while Xiaocheng Technology, Chifeng Gold, and Western Gold all rose over 9%. Shandong Humon Smelting, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold were among the top gainers. Spot silver showed a notable rise today. Click to view spot prices of precious metals. Order to view SMM's historical spot price trends for metals. With the sharp rise in precious metal futures, spot silver also rebounded from its previous decline. On April 10, the average ex-factory reference price for SMM1# silver in the morning was 7,907 yuan per kilogram, up 245 yuan per kilogram from the previous trading day, a 3.2% increase. The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice on April 10 titled "Notice on Continuing to Strengthen Recent Market Risk Control." The notice stated that the recent complex and volatile international situation has led to significant fluctuations in precious metal prices and increased market risks. Members are urged to enhance risk awareness, continue to refine risk contingency plans, and maintain stable market operations. Investors are also reminded to take risk prevention measures, manage positions rationally, and invest prudently. Due to the continued high volatility in precious metal prices, the Shanghai Gold Exchange had previously issued similar notices on April 3 and March 18. China Everbright Bank recently announced that, in accordance with relevant regulations for gold accumulation business and in response to market changes, it will adjust the minimum investment amount for individual gold accumulation business starting from 9:30 on April 8, 2025. Additionally, several banks, including Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and Bank of Ningbo, have raised the minimum investment amounts for gold accumulation. On April 7, the Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice titled "Notice on Adjusting Margin Ratios and Price Limits for Certain Contracts." The notice stated that, in light of recent significant fluctuations in gold and silver prices, the exchange has adjusted the margin ratios and price limits for gold deferred and silver deferred contracts in accordance with the "Shanghai Gold Exchange Risk Control Management Measures." The adjustments will take effect from the close of trading on April 8, 2025 (Tuesday), with the margin ratio for Ag (T+D) contracts increasing from 13% to 15% and the price limit increasing from 12% to 14% from the next trading day. China Securities' research report noted that asset allocation models indicate an improvement in gold signals. Based on a multi-asset allocation model that identifies macro states through growth/inflation factors, liquidity, and gold factors, the model constructs a dynamic risk budget portfolio. As of the end of March, medium- and long-term investment recommendations remain stable, with gold signals entering a "high" state, indicating a positive outlook and an increase in allocation weight. SDIC Futures pointed out that precious metals surged overnight. The trade war remains the main theme in recent market trading, with the decline in the US dollar and US Treasury bonds reflecting gold's safe-haven value amid US credit risks. After President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariff policies for most economies, market volatility increased again. The minutes of the Fed's March meeting showed that policymakers generally believe the economy faces risks of rising inflation and slowing growth. Today's focus is on US CPI data. Amid the US dollar credit crisis and a weakening economic outlook, the gold-silver ratio may remain high. Minmetals Futures stated that the reversal in US reciprocal tariff policies, along with the Fed's hawkish monetary policy stance, poses a risk of a pullback in precious metal prices. Early this morning, President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of tariff policies for most economies. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick stated that Trump will lead tariff negotiations. Following Trump's announcement, overseas stock markets, bonds, and commodity prices rebounded. Earlier, a $39 billion 10-year US Treasury auction performed moderately, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.67, higher than the previous 2.59, easing concerns about US Treasury liquidity. Fed officials maintained a hawkish stance, with Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stating that the threshold for a rate cut remains high and the Fed prefers not to intervene in the market. Market expectations for a rate cut at the May meeting have been lowered to 23.87%. The 10-2 US Treasury yield spread fell from 0.57% yesterday to 0.41%, releasing some overseas risk sentiment. Against the backdrop of hawkish Fed voting members and easing risk sentiment, precious metal prices, especially gold, face a risk of a pullback. Goldman Sachs analysts view the drop in gold prices as a buying opportunity and maintain their year-end forecast for gold to break through $3,300 per ounce. Macroeconomic risks, low investor positions, government reciprocal tariffs, emerging market central bank demand, and gold ETF inflows will support gold prices. HSBC raised its 2025 gold price forecast to $3,015 per ounce, up from $2,687 per ounce, and its 2026 forecast to $2,915 per ounce, up from $2,615 per ounce. For more information on macro and fundamental factors affecting precious metal markets, join the 2025 SMM (6th) Silver Industry Chain Innovation Conference.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: US Consumption Boom Cools Down, Economy Sounds "Stagflation" Alarm, Economic Slowdown May Loom Over Global Markets] Macro side, the EU plans to investigate aluminum imports and tighten steel tariffs, coupled with weak US February retail data and the OECD's downgrade of global growth forecasts, multiple bearish factors intensify market resistance. Domestically, January-February consumption and industrial data showed recovery, and the Ministry of Commerce promoted the integration of domestic and foreign trade, with economic resilience offsetting external risks. Fundamentals side, although the traditional peak season effect of "Golden March and Silver April" continues to manifest, the stronger-than-expected destocking performance of domestic aluminum inventory in early March and the relatively strong aluminum price performance, repeatedly testing the 21,000 mark, have to some extent impacted the supply-demand pattern of spot aluminum in the aluminum industry chain. However, SMM emphasizes that as the peak season deepens, the marginal strengthening logic of end-user restocking momentum still exists.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Market Risk Aversion Intensifies, Focus on US Inflation Data This Week] Macro side, endless tariff disputes have sparked concerns about a potential US economic recession. The market is also focusing on the US Consumer Price Index data to be released on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index on Thursday. Traders have now fully priced in the possibility of a US interest rate cut in June. Fundamentals side, domestic aluminum production resumption is progressing, with capacity to be released by the end of March. Inventory side, after the weekend, domestic aluminum ingot destocking resumed, making the turning point of domestic aluminum ingot destocking clearer. Coupled with the "Golden March and Silver April" seasonal trend, the operating rates of aluminum processing enterprises in the peak season continue to rebound, strengthening support for aluminum consumption. In summary, the macro side presents a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Domestic favourable macro front remains unchanged, while overseas trade barriers are increasing but with high uncertainty. Fundamentals side, both supply and demand are showing growth trends. As the consumption peak season approaches, most sectors are seeing a rebound in order volumes and operating rates. Combined with the destocking of aluminum ingot social inventory, there is some support for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to hover at highs, with attention on the key resistance level of 21,000 yuan/mt.