SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,579.5/mt, touching a low of $12,536.5/mt early in the session. Copper prices then shifted higher, reaching a high of $12,712/mt before ultimately closing at $12,695.5/mt, down 0.27%, with trading volume at 18,000 lots and open interest at 297,000 lots, an increase of 3,404 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 98,080 yuan/mt, touching a high of 97,820 yuan/mt early in the session and a low of 97,720 yuan/mt early in the session. Copper prices then shifted higher, reaching a high of 98,260 yuan/mt before ultimately closing at 98,070 yuan/mt, up 0.27%, with trading volume at 22,000 lots and open interest at 174,000 lots, a decrease of 1,255 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by bears reducing positions.

On Monday, April 6, Vizsla Copper said new drilling at the Poplar copper-molybdenum project in central British Columbia had extended mineralization 200 meters to the north. In a statement, the company said hole TH26-151 at the Thira zone intersected 675 meters of mineralization starting from 32 meters downhole, grading 0.26% copper and 0.015% molybdenum. Within this interval, a 435-meter section starting from 198 meters depth graded 0.31% copper and 0.022% molybdenum. Vancouver-based Vizsla Copper was spun off from Vizsla Silver in 2021. Vizsla Copper said the results from hole TH26-151 built on the 2025 results, indicating that the mineralized zone extended at least 800 meters east-west and at least 700 meters north-south. According to a 2021 resource report, the Poplar project had indicated resources of 152 million mt grading 0.32% copper, 0.09 g/mt gold, and 2.58 g/mt silver, containing 1.1 billion pounds of copper, 430,000 ounces of gold, and 12.6 million ounces of silver. In addition, the project had inferred resources of 139 million mt grading 0.29% copper, 0.07 g/mt gold, and 4.95 g/mt silver, containing 903 million pounds of copper, 320,000 ounces of gold, and 22.2 million ounces of silver. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Weekly average electricity prices dropped across most major European markets last week, driven by falling gas prices and increased solar and wind output, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. Spain and Portugal recorded the lowest daily averages at €0.18/MWh on March 29, the lowest since 2013 for Spain. Meanwhile, Italy and Spain set new all-time daily solar generation records for March, reaching 139 GWh and 194 GWh, respectively. TTF gas futures also trended downwards following geopolitical developments, although low European storage levels caused a slight rebound late in the week. AleaSoft anticipates further electricity price declines in early April, noting that 'gas price trends will continue to shape European electricity market prices.'

[Latest Data from the General Administration of Customs] In January 2026, China imported 232,300 mt in physical content of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap. Of this total, 139,300 mt was imported through customs declarations filed with Ningbo Customs, ranking first and accounting for 59.98%; 24,300 mt was imported through customs declarations filed with Guangdong Customs, ranking second and accounting for 10.47%. (HS code: 74040000)

Fortescue Metals has completed a deal to acquire full ownership of the Canariaco copper project in northern Peru for about C$139 million. The project hosts several mineral prospects and represents a significant exploration opportunity. The company plans to conduct technical studies and further development evaluations.

SMM Nickel News on March 2: Macro and Market News: (1) Iran Situation: Trump said the new Iranian leadership wants to resume negotiations, and he has agreed to dialogue. Military action against Iran could last for four weeks. (2) The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to discuss the draft outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the government work report. Spot Market: On March 2, the SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 1,150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums and discounts, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 7,150 yuan/mt, down 700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the range for domestic mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel was -700-300 yuan/mt, showing a decline. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract fluctuated rangebound in the morning session, closing at 139,010 yuan/mt with a decrease of 0.26% by the end of the morning session. Over the weekend, the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, leading to a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and market sentiment quickly turned risk-averse, causing a slight correction in nickel prices. The medium and long-term logic of supply tightening at the mine end remains unchanged, and it is expected that the most-traded SHFE nickel contract will continue to oscillate around the 140,000 yuan/mt level in the short term.

In times of peace, oil and gas are cost variables; in a war context, traditional energy becomes a security variable. The escalation of conflict in the Middle East at the end of February led to a high opening for oil prices on the first trading day of March. During peacetime, energy prices fluctuate around the supply-demand gap, with the market focusing on production, inventory, and cost curves. However, in a war environment, the market first trades not on production but on deliverability. Whether key shipping routes are open, whether insurance costs soar, and whether sanctions spread, all quickly translate into risk premiums. As a result, oil prices exhibit high fluctuations, even if actual supply has not significantly decreased, as prices are pushed up by delivery uncertainties. Energy thus transforms from a commodity into a strategic resource. As an analyst in the new energy sector, I believe that this change does not simply benefit new energy. Rising oil prices reinforce the logic of electrification, making EVs and renewable energy more economically attractive. However, the macroeconomic uncertainty brought about by war may also dampen consumer and investment confidence. If high oil prices drive inflation and slow growth, overall demand for cars and industry will slow down, and new energy will not be immune. Therefore, the investment logic for new energy is no longer unidirectional, but depends on the balance between substitution effects and macroeconomic contraction effects. A deeper change lies in the fact that capital is beginning to re-evaluate energy security. The traditional oil and gas system is highly dependent on cross-border transportation and continuous fuel supply, with its vulnerabilities lying in shipping and geopolitics. In contrast, wind and PV do not require continuous fuel input during operation, and energy storage can enhance the stability of the power system, giving new energy strategic value in a war environment. They are not only low-carbon tools but also a path to reducing external dependence. The security attributes of new energy are thus being revalued. However, it must be recognized that this security attribute is not absolute. The manufacturing of new energy is highly dependent on critical minerals such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt, with their mining and processing concentrated and heavily reliant on transportation. If upstream resource policies tighten or logistics are disrupted, risks will also propagate through the industry chain. Therefore, the security of new energy is operational security, not supply security. This means that future investment logic will shift from simply pursuing the lowest cost to focusing on supply chain control capabilities and regional diversification. In a war environment, the allocation of risk premiums by capital changes. Transportation premiums, geopolitical premiums, and supply chain concentration premiums all rise. The volatility of traditional energy intensifies; new energy generation assets gain a security bonus; and critical minerals and midstream processing capabilities become new strategic nodes. Efficiency is no longer the sole criterion, with redundancy and controllability becoming important components of the valuation system. Deglobalization and supply chain restructuring may push up the cost center of the industry, but they also enhance the strategic position of assets. In this context, the value of energy storage and power grid assets stands out. If conflicts persist, the core goal of the energy system will shift from cost optimization to system resilience. Distributed energy, microgrids, and energy storage have insurance-like attributes, and their value becomes more evident in extreme scenarios. Even if high raw material prices increase project costs, an elevated policy priority may still provide long-term support. Over the past five to ten years, the narrative of the energy transition has largely focused on new energy as a tool for decarbonization to ensure sustainable development of the planet. However, geopolitical tensions in the last two to three years have redefined new energy as part of the energy security framework. Within new energy, it is not just the power generation assets that are being repriced, but also energy storage and the power grid. 1) In a war environment, the core issue of the energy system shifts from efficiency to resilience During peacetime, the goal of the energy system is to maximize efficiency: lowest cost, highest utilization rate, and optimal allocation. Cross-border trade and centralized power generation have made the global energy structure highly globalized and scaled. War exposes the vulnerabilities of such a system. Maritime transport routes, natural gas pipelines, tanker insurance, key ports, and large power plants can all become risk nodes. At this point, the system's priority is no longer efficiency but resilience – the ability to maintain basic operational capacity under shocks. Energy storage and the power grid are at the core of a resilient system. 2) Energy storage: from an arbitrage tool to system insurance In normal circumstances, the value of energy storage mainly comes from electricity arbitrage, ancillary services, and peak load regulation, with its return on investment depending on fluctuations in electricity prices and policy subsidies. However, in a wartime context, the value of energy storage is redefined. It is no longer merely an economic optimization tool but a guarantee of power system stability. Energy storage can provide emergency support during fuel supply disruptions or grid shocks, preventing the power system from collapsing due to a single point of failure. This means that energy storage assets have insurance-like attributes. When system risks rise, capital's risk appetite for these assets increases. Even if high raw material prices drive up project costs, there may still be stronger policy support because of the rising strategic value. The valuation logic of energy storage thus transitions from "IRR-driven" to "system safety premium." 3) Power grid: an undervalued strategic hub The impact of war on the energy system often first manifests in the transmission and distribution network. Centralized energy structures rely on a few key periods, and once damaged, the impact is widespread. Therefore, power grid upgrades and digitalization have become the focus of secure investments. Enhancements in smart grids, regional interconnections, grid redundancy, and distributed access capabilities can significantly strengthen the system's resilience to shocks. The investment logic for power grid assets becomes clearer in a wartime context: it is not only infrastructure but also the backbone of national energy security. In the long term, power grid upgrades will be a necessary prerequisite for the expansion of new energy. The fluctuations in new energy generation require more robust transmission, distribution, and dispatching capabilities. When risk environments rise, countries are more inclined to accelerate grid construction to reduce dependence on external energy. 4) Distributed Energy and Microgrids: The Strategic Significance of Decentralization While centralized energy systems are efficient, they are also highly vulnerable. Although distributed PV, community energy storage, and microgrids are relatively small in scale, they possess the capability for independent operation. In a war context, distributed energy has two advantages: first, it reduces the risk of single-point failures; second, it decreases reliance on cross-border fuel transportation. The strategic value of such assets is being re-evaluated in high-risk environments. 5) Deep Changes in Investment Logic The rising value of energy storage and power grids means that new energy investments no longer solely revolve around installation growth and cost reduction, but rather around system security and supply chain control. Key changes include: a. Capital is more focused on localized manufacturing and supply chain diversification; b. The weight of security in investment decisions has increased; c. The cost center may shift upward in stages, but the strategic premium has risen. The valuation system of the new energy industry is transitioning from a growth premium to a strategic premium. What opportunities and risks does geopolitics bring to China's new energy industry? 1) China's Energy Security Structure: From Import Dependence to Electrification Advantage China has long been one of the world's largest crude oil importers, with persistent energy security issues. In a wartime environment, oil price fluctuations and transportation risks increase, directly affecting energy costs and macro expectations. However, unlike before, China has established the most complete new energy manufacturing system globally. The high integration of the PV, wind, energy storage, battery, and EV industry chains gives China a manufacturing and scale advantage during the energy transition. In a war context, this advantage is beginning to translate into security attributes: an increase in electrification means a reduction in dependence on external fuels; an increase in new energy installations means a more resilient energy structure. Thus, China's new energy system has the potential for alternative security. 2) Energy Storage and Power Grid: China's Most Strategic Assets If the war becomes protracted, the core of the energy system will no longer be power generation capacity itself, but system stability. China's layout in energy storage and power grid gives it a relative advantage at this stage. In terms of energy storage, China possesses the world's largest battery manufacturing capacity and cost advantages. Under the logic of energy security, energy storage is no longer solely about economics, but has become an important tool for ensuring the stability and emergency response capability of the power system. At the policy level, there may be an emphasis on increasing the proportion of energy storage in the power system. Regarding the power grid, China has developed the world's largest ultra-high voltage transmission network and grid construction capabilities. The increased redundancy and interconnectivity of the grid help to absorb more new energy installations while enhancing the system's resilience against shocks. In a high-risk environment, investment in the grid may accelerate. This means that, under the security logic, China's energy storage and power grid assets have structural strategic premiums. 3) Critical Minerals and Supply Chain: Advantages and Risks Coexist China has advantages in the new energy manufacturing sector, but still relies on overseas layouts for upstream resources. The supply chains for critical minerals such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt are highly internationalized, and wars or geopolitical risks may amplify policy and logistics uncertainties. For China's new energy industry chain, the real challenge lies not in the manufacturing end, but in the stability and cost fluctuations of the resource end. The trend of supply chain deglobalization may push up the cost center, compressing profit margins. The core of future competition will shift from scale expansion to resource control capabilities and the diversification of global layouts. 4) New Energy Vehicles: China's Structural Advantages and Short-term Fluctuations The impact of the war environment on new energy vehicles also has a dual nature. On one hand, rising oil prices reinforce the economic advantages of EVs. In a context of high oil prices, the cost advantages of using EVs become even more evident, which is conducive to increasing the penetration rate among end-users. China has the world's largest EV capacity and supply chain system, with scale and cost advantages. On the other hand, high oil prices may suppress consumer confidence through inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty. If the war continues for a long time, global economic growth may slow down, putting overall car demand under pressure. Although new energy vehicles have a substitution logic, they cannot be completely independent of the macro cycle. Therefore, the short-term performance of China's new energy vehicle industry will depend on the relative strength of the substitution effect and macroeconomic drag. 5) Long-term Structure: Re-stratification of Strategic Assets In the era of energy security, the competitiveness of China's new energy system will be more reflected in three aspects: First, manufacturing scale and cost control capabilities; Second, the system support capacity of the power grid and energy storage; Third, the diversification of upstream resources and supply chain layout. War has accelerated the stratification of the global energy system. Traditional energy bears higher fluctuation risks; new energy power generation and power grid assets gain a safety premium; critical minerals become the focal point of geopolitical competition. For China, the new energy industry is no longer just an engine for growth but also a part of the energy security system. The investment logic will shift from pure growth rate and subsidies to strategic position and supply chain stability. Overall, as energy transitions from a cost variable to a security variable, the strategic value of China's new energy system rises, but it also faces higher supply chain risks and global competitive pressures. Energy storage and the power grid are becoming the core of system stability; new energy vehicles benefit under the substitution logic, but one must be wary of macro cycles; critical minerals will determine the cost center and industrial profit margins. In an era where war reshapes the energy order, stability is more important than growth. SMM New Energy Analyst Yang Le 13916526348

Lizhong Group announced that the company achieved operating revenue of 32,139.17 million yuan in 2025, an increase of 17.96% compared to the same period last year. In 2025, the cumulative net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 889.17 million yuan, an increase of 25.75% year-on-year. Benefiting from the recovery in market prices, coupled with the introduction of strategic investors, the company's lithium hexafluorophosphate business saw steady growth in capacity utilization and order volume. Starting from November, the business returned to profitability, with sustained positive momentum in profitability.

SMM February 28: According to SMM statistics, overseas aluminum production in February 2026 increased 2.5% YoY; new aluminum projects in Indonesia and Angola continued ramping up, with overseas daily average production rising 0.9% MoM. On February 17, 2026, Alba released its Q4 and annual report for 2025. The report showed Alba’s production hit a record high of 1,623,139 mt in 2025, exceeding targets despite a fire incident at year-end. The affected production line is currently in the recovery phase. On February 19, 2026, Century Aluminum announced its Q4 results. The report indicated primary aluminum shipments fell 14% QoQ in Q4 2025, mainly due to production declines caused by equipment failure at its Iceland plant. In 2026, the 50,000 mt idle capacity at Mt. Holly is expected to resume production in April, reaching full capacity by the end of Q2; the Iceland plant is expected to restart earlier than planned, now scheduled to begin production resumptions by the end of April 2026 and approach full capacity by the end of July. South 32’s performance report maintained Mozal aluminum smelter’s FY2026 production guidance at 240,000 mt, with the plant expected to begin maintenance shutdown from March 15. However, foreign media reported the government is taking necessary measures to maintain Mozal’s operations. SMM will continue monitoring. Looking ahead to March 2026, operating capacity at new aluminum projects in Indonesia and Angola is expected to continue climbing, but production cuts or shutdown risks at the Mozambique plant may cause daily average aluminum production to turn negative. Nevertheless, high aluminum prices continue to stimulate global aluminum supply acceleration, with the Iceland plant’s restart expected ahead of schedule and other plants slightly increasing operating rates. Overall, aluminum supply is expected to maintain growth, though global aluminum inventory trends warrant ongoing attention.

SMM February 28 News: According to SMM statistics, overseas aluminum production totaled in February 2026 increased 2.5% YoY; new aluminum projects in Indonesia and Angola continued ramping up, with the overseas daily average production up 0.9% MoM. On February 17, 2026, Alba released its Q4 and annual report for 2025. The report showed that Alba's production hit a record high of 1,623,139 mt in 2025, exceeding targets despite a fire accident at year-end 2025. The production line affected by the fire is currently in the recovery phase. On February 19, 2026, Century Aluminum announced its Q4 results. The report indicated that primary aluminum shipments in Q4 2025 fell 14% QoQ, mainly due to production declines caused by equipment failure at the Iceland aluminum plant. In 2026, the 50,000 mt idle capacity at the Mt. Holly plant is expected to resume production in April, reaching full capacity by the end of Q2; the Iceland plant is expected to restart earlier than originally planned, now scheduled to begin production resumptions by the end of April 2026 and recover to near full capacity by the end of July. South 32's performance report showed that the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique maintained its FY2026 guidance production of 240,000 mt, meaning the Mozal plant is expected to transition into maintenance shutdown from March 15. However, foreign media reported that the government is taking necessary measures to keep the Mozal plant operating. SMM will continue monitoring. Looking ahead to March 2026, operating capacity at new aluminum projects in Indonesia and Angola is expected to continue climbing, but the Mozal plant faces risks of output reduction or shutdown. Affected by this, daily average aluminum production may turn to negative growth. Nevertheless, high aluminum prices continue to stimulate global aluminum supply acceleration; the Iceland plant's production resumption is expected earlier than planned; other plants also slightly increased operating rates. Overall, aluminum supply is expected to maintain growth, and global aluminum inventory trends need ongoing attention. [Data Source Statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.] Data Source: SMM (Guo Mingxin 021-20707919)