The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a سلسلة of chain reactions: global shipping costs have surged sharply, and war risk insurance premiums for vessels have also risen rapidly. Moreover, shipping companies must also weigh freight rate factors. According to industry insiders, current freight rates have already skyrocketed to 11-12 times their original level.

At present, battery cell capacity for energy storage in China has entered a state of broad-based undersupply, with order schedules for energy storage battery cells at some top-tier enterprises even extending to the end of Q1 2027. Affected by this supply-demand gap, China’s energy storage battery cell segment is ushering in a new wave of capacity expansion, with many enterprises announcing large-scale expansion plans.

[SMM Analysis]Weak Supply-Demand Pattern; Secondary Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Come Under Pressure and Pull Back in April

[SMM Nickel Flash] The average SMM price of 10-12% high-grade NPI fell WoW by 1 yuan/nickel unit to 1,082.5 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average price of Indonesia's NPI FOB index fell WoW by $0.02/nickel unit to $136.58/nickel unit. The high-grade NPI market generally remained stable, and after the transaction center stabilized, the market entered a state of back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream, with prices under pressure in the short term.

On April 2, the Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Decision No. 612/QD-BCT, imposing a temporary anti-circumvention tariff of up to 27.83% on certain hot-rolled steel products from China. The measure applies to specific flat-rolled steel products (alloy or non-alloy), with thicknesses of 1.2–25.4mm and widths between 1,880mm and 2,300mm, that have not been further processed beyond hot rolling.

[SMM Daily Hot-Rolled Coil Trading] On April 3, the total daily trading volume of hot-rolled coil at sample enterprises in four SMM cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, and Ningbo) was 14,410 mt, down 70 mt day on day, or 0.5%, up 30.71% YoY on a calendar basis and up 12.31% YoY on a lunar calendar basis.

Thu, 02-Apr-2026 12:23 Gold investing sentiment never stronger outside financial or Covid crisis... GOLD's SHARPEST price drop in 13 years just saw a record number of investors buy the precious metal on BullionVault as the US and Israel went to war with Iran, writes Adrian Ash at the world-leading marketplace. Private investors have seized on gold's price drop because this sudden retreat has given buyers the chance to reset the clock back before January's historic price spike. After setting new all-time highs and rising for 9 months in a row − gold's longest-ever run of unbroken gains − the price of gold sank by 11.8% in March (-10.5% in UK Pounds, -9.7% in Euros) as the oil-price shock drove profit-taking by central banks, institutional investors and traders needing to cover losses in stocks and bonds. Jumping on the price drop, the number of investors choosing to buy gold on BullionVault − now used by 130,000 private investors worldwide and finding 9-in-10 of its clients in Western Europe and North America − rose by almost one-fifth from February's count (+18.2%). That meant buyers topped this New Year's previous record and outnumbered sellers (who rose 0.4%) nearly 3-to-1. It also means that investing sentiment in gold has only been stronger at the peak of the financial crisis and then the Covid pandemic. Tracking the number of buyers versus sellers on BullionVault each month, the Gold Investor Index is a unique gauge of sentiment built solely from actual gold trading decisions. Rebased so that a reading of 50.0 would signal a perfect balance of buyers and sellers, the Global Gold Investor Index set a lifetime high of 71.7 in September 2011, and it hit a series low of 47.5 in March 2024 when gold prices rose to what were then fresh record prices in the absence of any notable economic or financial stress. This March the Gold Investor Index rose to 60.7, adding 2.3 points to reach its highest reading since August 2020 and extending the uptrend begun on the eve of the US presidential election in autumn 2024 . Having risen so sharply during Trump's first year back in the White House, gold has shocked many observers by falling during the Iran War so far. But while gold now faces headwinds from higher inflation threatening a rise in interest rates, the danger of economic stagflation only boosts the need to spread portfolio risk as the geopolitical order breaks down. The breadth of demand says that gold remains a compelling investment in today's uncertain and increasingly dangerous world. In contrast to gold, investing sentiment in silver fell in March as the more industrially-useful precious metal sank in price, with BullionVault's gauge dropping to a 4-month low. But that still put the Silver Investor Index at 60.1, greater than all but 12 of the series' 170 previous monthly readings. Silver's price crash of 19.2% in US Dollar terms was its worst 1-month loss since September 2011 (the worst in GBP since Sept '11 at 17.5%; the worst since March 2020 in EUR at 16.8%). In response, investors using BullionVault bought almost 1.5 tonnes more than they sold as a group, taking total client holdings to 1,134 tonnes worth more than $2.6bn (£2.0bn, €2.3bn). Gold's price drop meanwhile saw BullionVault users buy more gold than they sold by weight for the first time since October, growing their total holdings by 0.2% to more than 43.4 tonnes worth $6.4 billion (£4.8bn, €5.5bn). New account openings fell by 1/3rd from February's figure (-33.2%) and totalled less than 2/5ths of January's all-time record (-60.5%). But March still marked the 8th strongest month for first-time users of BullionVault in the West London fintech's 21-year history. Altogether, the first 3 months of 2026 have now brought more new customers to BullionVault than all but 3 full calendar years since it opened in April 2005. Adrian Ash Adrian Ash is director of research at BullionVault, the world-leading physical gold, silver, platinum and palladium market for private investors online. Formerly head of editorial at London's top publisher of private-investment advice, he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and he has now been researching and writing daily analysis of precious metals and the wider financial markets for over 20 years. A frequent guest on BBC radio and television, Adrian is regularly quoted by the Financial Times , MarketWatch and many other respected news outlets, and his views from inside the bullion market have been sought by the Economist magazine, CNBC, Bloomberg, Germany's Handelsblatt and FAZ , plus Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore. See the full archive of Adrian Ash articles on GoldNews. Please Note: All articles published here are to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. Please review our Terms & Conditions for accessing Gold News . Source: https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-investor-index/buy-gold-iran-war-040220261

This week, stainless steel spot prices fell slightly more than production costs, further worsening the inversion between stainless steel mill prices and costs. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on raw material prices on the day, the full cost profit margin was -1.19% this week; calculated based on raw material inventory costs, the margin was -0.55%. Nickel-series raw material costs, high-grade NPI prices remained in the doldrums this week. Although nickel ore prices are currently holding firm and NPI traders are broadly bullish, SHFE nickel futures have been weak recently, while downstream stainless steel prices have struggled to rise. Stainless steel mills themselves are under heavy cost pressure and have shown low acceptance of high-priced raw materials, resulting in sparse market transactions recently; affected by this, high-grade NPI traders have faced considerable transaction pressure, and the price center edged lower slightly. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with a grade of 10-12% fell by 2 yuan per nickel unit to 1,081.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market, stainless steel scrap prices were stable this week, and the decline in finished stainless steel prices did not transmit to the steel scrap market, while prices of substitute furnace charge also remained stable. Tightness in tax invoices eased, the economic advantage of steel scrap became more evident, and high stainless steel mill production schedules drove higher consumption, lifting market transactions and easing inventory pressure. However, finished product prices struggled to rise, limiting upside room for steel scrap prices, which are expected to remain stable in the short term. As of this Friday, the price of 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quote at around 10,150 yuan/mt. Chrome-series raw material costs, high-carbon ferrochrome prices dropped back slightly this week. Although some ferrochrome producers recently reported maintenance and production cuts, and stainless steel production schedules for April remained high, leaving retail spot supply in the ferrochrome market relatively tight, stainless steel mills had built relatively ample ferrochrome raw material inventories earlier. Meanwhile, high port inventories of chrome ore recently caused some loosening in chrome ore spot prices. In addition, ferrochrome capacity has already reached a high level, the rainy season in south China is approaching, and ferrochrome producers outside China are resuming production. With ferrochrome producers lacking confidence in the outlook, ferrochrome prices still faced some downward pressure. As of this Friday, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia fell 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW to 8,625 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

This week, the nickel market generally showed a pattern of "falling first and then rebounding, moving sideways within a range," with an intense tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The core fluctuation range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract was around 133,000-138,000 yuan/mt, down 1.82% on a weekly basis, while the LME nickel 3M contract also fluctuated lower this week, down 0.67%. In the spot market, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price was 136,600 yuan/mt this week, down 3,300 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums weakened sharply, falling all the way from 5,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 3,650 yuan/mt on Friday, with the weekly average at about 3,900 yuan/mt. Against the backdrop of high inventory in China, imported cargoes still faced circulation pressure, suppliers showed stronger willingness to sell, and premiums declined in tandem. Overall spot transactions were sluggish. With the Qingming Festival approaching and prices remaining high, downstream buyers showed insufficient purchasing enthusiasm, with rigid demand dominating. On the macro front, at the end of Q1 2026, US economic data showed stronger-than-expected resilience, undermining market confidence in a US Fed interest rate cut before June. This supported a stronger US dollar in the short term and put valuation pressure on commodities such as nickel. China's official manufacturing PMI for March came in at 50.5%, remaining in expansion territory for a second consecutive month, indicating signs of a manufacturing recovery. Repeated fluctuations in the Middle East situation have caused oil price fluctuations, driving swings in overall risk appetite across the commodities market, and nickel prices showed a relatively strong linkage to financial factors. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was about 92,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 1,800 mt WoW. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to remain in a tug-of-war pattern of "strong support from the cost floor, weak actual demand, and policy-driven sentiment disruptions," making rangebound fluctuations more likely. The core fluctuation range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 130,000-138,000 yuan/mt.

[Smelters Actively Procure Domestic Zinc Ore, China TCs Are Expected to Decline in April]: Weekly data showed that the average weekly SMM Zn50 domestic TC fell 200 yuan/mt Zn MoM to 1,350 yuan/mt Zn, while the SMM imported zinc concentrates index fell $12.22/dmt MoM to -$14.5/dmt...