[SMM Analysis: What Impact Does the Middle East Situation Have on the Recycled Copper Raw Materials Market?] Recent turbulence in the Middle East has once again rattled global commodity markets. However, zooming in on the recycled copper raw materials segment, the market has remained remarkably calm. This article examines the trade structure and supply-demand dynamics to explain why the Middle East situation has, in practice, a relatively limited impact on Asia's scrap copper market.

Over the past few days, the Indonesian nickel market has reacted to the government’s announcement of a restricted 2026 RKAB production quota, set at approximately 260–270 million tons. This reduction has sent shockwaves through the industry, sparking widespread concern among both operational and upcoming smelters. Stakeholders are increasingly worried that these tightened supply levels will be insufficient to sustain their long-term production requirements. For the first one, The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) has stated that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has agreed to consider revisions to the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) starting in July. It is believed that the RKAB revisions could increase nickel production quotas by 25% to 30%. According to APNI, the domestic smelter demand based on the capacity is around 380-400 million tons, With the existing RKAB quota at 270 million tons and projected imports from the Philippines at 23 million tons, this 30% adjustment is critical to meeting the national ore deficit. This potential for more quota provides some relief to the market, but there is a second, more pressing issue to consider Another media also stated that The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has set a conservative nickel ore production target of 209.08 million tons for 2026, a figure notably lower than the approved RKAB quota of 260–270 million tons. According to Siti Sumilah Rita Susilawati of the Directorate General of Minerals and Coal, this strategic reduction is intended to preserve national reserves and stabilize global commodity prices As a result, the sudden perception of even deeper quota cuts has fueled confusion across the Indonesian market, which might further intensifying the pressure from already spiking nickel ore prices. I. Indonesia’s Calculated Nickel Ore Demand in 2026 According to SMM’s latest calculations, the total nickel ore requirement for 2026, which includes the demand from NPI, FeNi, Nickel Matte, and MHP, is estimated at approximately 334 million tons, based on the production estimates of smelter's current condition. This sharp increase is primarily driven by the rapid expansion of MHP production, which utilizes higher volumes of limonite ore. This surge in consumption has intensified the pressure on smelters to secure significantly higher mining quotas. II. Current Update and Understanding The Quota Revision? According to current understanding from the Regulation of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Number 17 of 2025, citing the 11 th Article Regarding the Amendment of Work Approved Quotas in ESDM, it is stated that: Article 11 (1) Holders of an IUP (Mining Business License) for the Exploration stage, holders of an IUPK (Special Mining Business License) for the Exploration stage, holders of an IUP for the Production Operation stage, holders of an IUPK for the Production Operation stage, or holders of an IUPK as a Continuation of Contract/Agreement Operations may submit one (1) application for an amendment to the Exploration stage RKAB or the Production Operation stage RKAB in each current year. (2) The application for the RKAB Amendment as referred to in paragraph (1) shall be submitted after the holders of the Exploration stage IUP, Exploration stage IUPK, Production Operation stage IUP, Production Operation stage IUPK, or IUPK as a Continuation of Contract/Agreement Operations have submitted periodic reports up to the second quarter or no later than July 31st of the current year. SMM observes that RKAB revisions and amendments are standard procedure, as seen in both 2024 and 2025. This year, however, the submission window for revisions is expected to open after June, with a final deadline of July 31st. While the ESDM has not clarified whether the 260–270 million ton target already accounts for these mid-year adjustments, it remains highly likely that these revisions will be sufficient to meet domestic smelter demand. Another Potential Cuts? According to SMM’s further communication with ESDM, the predicted quota for 2026 still remains on 260-270 million tons estimate. Since the further production cuts rumor by ESDM is not in an official setting announcement, it is hereby confirmed that the quota approved of 2026 will not be lower than ESDM’s initial estimate of 260-270 million tons. From SMM's understanding, the target number to be lower than the quota is merely just an estimate of the production target, not necessarily reflecting the actual production numbers. III. Nickel Ore Supply and Demand Given the government’s push to tighten annual quotas, SMM expects this year’s revisions to land at approximately 20%, a more conservative number. Furthermore, nickel ore imports from the Philippines are unlikely to see significant growth compared to 2025, with estimates holding at approximately 19 million tons. This stagnant growth is due to the heavy concentration of Philippine exports to China, coupled with limited domestic mining capacity and a lack of new mining companies . After factoring in import volumes from the Philippines, the nickel ore market is likely to remain in a tight supply-demand balance, especially with potential hurdles like the rainy season slowing down mining operations. Nonetheless, this scenario is much more realistic than the alternative: a massive 50+ million ton deficit that would occur if the total quota were strictly capped at 270 million tons. IV. Conclusion Overall, the signal for significant quota cuts at the start of the year has already triggered a sharp rally in nickel ore prices, which could be seen from the substantial rise in premiums, largely driven by quota reductions at major mining companies and persistent uncertainty among small-to-mid-scale operators. Looking ahead, if the government maintains these restricted levels and fails to approve adequate supplemental quotas, domestic ore prices are poised for further upward momentum, potentially intensifying the cost burden on the downstream smelting sector.

February 2026 proved to be a pivotal month of challenge and adjustment for the global stainless steel market. Driven by the compounding pressures of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), intensifying geopolitical trade friction, significantly tightened raw material quotas, and sudden supply chain disruptions, the market navigated a complex landscape.

[smm silicon-based pv morning meeting summary: upstream silicon market prices mostly stable over the weekend downstream module quotes show an upward trend] over the weekend, n-type recharging polysilicon quotes were 48-56 yuan/kg, the n-type polysilicon price index was 51.4 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon quotes were 49-51 yuan/kg. polysilicon prices remained temporarily stable over the weekend. previously, the market sentiment was bearish, with limited transactions this weekend. the market is focusing on order signing conditions in early march, as well as the trend of silver prices amid international situations.

Powering the Core Journey! OFweek 2026 (10th Annual) Industry Annual Conference is set for a major upgrade and will make its debut at the AsiaWorld-Expo in Hong Kong (Main Forum, Hall 8) from March 11-12, 2026 . This annual conference will be held concurrently with TBSA 2026 (2026 Asia International and Exhibition), covering an exhibition area of over 22,000 square meters. It will attract more than 350 global exhibitors and over 20,000 international professional visitors. Over 150 industry leaders will gather to explore cutting-edge trends in the battery industry, connect global resources, and jointly create a new industrial landscape. Two major events will also be held concurrently: the Weike Cup·OFweek 2025 (8th Annual) Industry Awards Ceremony, and the launch event of the "Involution Ebbs, Innovation Gathers Strength: 2026 China Lithium Battery Industry Panorama Blue Book" (including the release of rankings), integrating exhibitions, high-end conferences, and industry awards. Global renowned enterprises such as Power, Lead Intelligent Equipment, Materials, BTR, Reasolid New Material, Bosch Rexroth, Jingshi, Zhongke Shenlan Huize, and WELION New Energy will gather at this grand event to share insights and jointly promote a new pattern of high-quality development across the industry chain. Three Special Sessions: Decoding Cutting-Edge Trends and Growth Opportunities As an annual barometer for the lithium battery industry, this conference, centered around the theme of "Technological Breakthroughs - Intelligent Manufacturing Upgrades - Market Outlook," will feature three special sessions on Technology and Applications, "Intelligent Manufacturing," and Solid-State Batteries . It will focus on pathways for technological implementation, delve into intelligent manufacturing and cost-reduction and efficiency-enhancement solutions, and provide insights into solid-state battery technology roadmaps to help secure a leading position in next-generation battery technologies. Two major launch events will be held concurrently: ▲ BTR New Product Launch Event : The anode leader unveils innovative products, showcasing groundbreaking technologies and achievements; ▲ Launch Event of the "2026 Lithium Battery Industry Panorama Blue Book" : Exclusive release of industry data, policy interpretations, and future trend forecasts, providing a comprehensive overview for industrial decision-making. A Top-Tier Lineup Assembled: Sneak Peek at the Agenda Contact Us Business Cooperation: Ms. Jiao Tel: 19168597392 Email: Market Cooperation/Media Cooperation: Ms. Yi Tel: 19925234597 Email: yiguandi@ofweek.com

[SMM coking coal and coke daily brief] In terms of supply, the average profit per mt of coke is around the break-even point, with normal production. However, due to downstream wait-and-see sentiment and some steel mills controlling arrivals, the shipment pace of some coke enterprises has slowed down, leading to a continuous accumulation of coke inventory. On the demand side, the resumption of production at steel mills is slow, and their own coke inventories are at reasonable levels. Additionally, during the Chinese New Year, the accumulation of finished product inventory led to continuously compressed steel mill profits, resulting in mainly purchasing coke as needed. In summary, the willingness of steel mills to seek profit from the raw material end is increasing, and recently, cost support for coke may weaken. Therefore, the current market is characterized by a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and in the short term, the coke market is expected to be in the doldrums, with expectations of price reductions.

Gold and silver prices are expected to begin the week on a strong note when trading resumes on Monday, as escalating tensions in the Middle East push investors toward safe-haven assets, analysts said.

This month, Rio Tinto stated during its earnings conference call that with all its owned projects progressing as planned, the company's lithium production capacity is expected to reach 200,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) annually by 2028. The increase will primarily stem from the Fenix project, the expansion of Sal de Vida, and the commissioning of the Rincon and Nemaska projects. By that time, total output will exceed three times the 57,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate production achieved in 2025. Rio Tinto previously announced its entry into the ranks of major lithium producers upon acquiring Arcadium, with plans to increase capacity to over 200,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) annually by 2028. The company has now confirmed its focus on achieving this target, positioning lithium as a “significant” component within its business structure. Expansion Projects: The mechanical portion of the 10,000-ton-per-year expansion at Fenix, one of the Argentine salt lake projects, has been completed, with commissioning progress reaching 60%. The mechanical vapor recompression unit has been put into operation to support the planned first production run. The first production from the expanded capacity remains on track to commence in the second half of 2026. At the new Sal de Vida project in Argentina, with an annual capacity of 15,000 metric tons, the mechanical works have been completed and commissioning is 40% complete. Production is expected to commence in the second half of 2026, projected to increase Rio Tinto's lithium output to 61,000–64,000 metric tons LCE in 2026. Regarding future projects: The Rincon project in Argentina, with an annual capacity of 60,000 metric tons, is progressing smoothly with its initial 3,000-metric-ton-per-year plant. It is expected to reach full capacity by year-end. The 57,000-metric-ton expansion plant has completed commissioning and is currently being started up, with first production planned for 2028. It will reach full production after a three-year ramp-up period. The mine has an estimated 40-year lifespan, with operating costs positioned in the top quartile of the industry cost curve. The Nemaska project in Canada features an integrated lithium hydroxide production line with a designed capacity of 28,000 metric tons per year. The mine's engineering design is complete, with construction progress at 60%. The lithium hydroxide refinery is scheduled to commence commissioning in 2026 and achieve first production in 2028. For the Whabouchi and Galaxy mines, strategic business and capital discipline reviews are underway with Canadian partners to determine the development of one of these mines. A decision is expected in the first half of 2026 to secure an integrated spodumene supply solution for the lithium hydroxide plant by 2028. In Chile, Rio Tinto anticipates closing agreements signed with state-owned mining companies Codelco and Enami in the first half of 2026. Rio Tinto has been selected as the private partner to develop Chile's two largest undeveloped lithium resources, with projects advancing upon agreement completion.

February 25, 2026— AMG Critical Materials Inc. announced adjusted EBITDA of $235 million for the year 2025, representing a 40% increase from $168 million in 2024, primarily driven by strong performance in its antimony and engineering businesses. The company concluded the year with a robust balance sheet, highlighted by total liquidity of $484 million as of December 31, 2025. The refinery in Bitterfeld has continued to ramp up its production, producing in specification battery-grade lithium hydroxide and progressing with customer qualification as planned.AMG has dispatched kilogram samples to all cathode active materials (CAM) manufacturers with a footprint in Europe at the end of 2025, initiating the first stage of qualification. Based on customer feedback, it is anticipateed that it will move on to the next stage of qualification involving the shipment of tons in the first half of 2026, and expect to reach full production capacity in the second half of 2026. AMG Lithium is starting engineering on a 5,000-ton lithium carbonate to lithium hydroxide conversion plant at its Bitterfeld site. This plant will be designed to accept recycled lithium carbonate, and convert it to technical-grade hydroxide for use in Bitterfeld’s main upgrading facility. The plant’s capital cost is expected to be $50 million, and as announced in December 2025, 20% of the costs of the plant will be supported by a funding grant from the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy. The fourth quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA decreased 87% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, primarily due to the lower lithium concentrate volumes in the current quarter and higher mining costs related to poor quality ore. Full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA decreased from $24 million to $12 million, driven primarily by the 16% decrease in annual average lithium prices in 2025 compared to 2024, as well as the lower lithium concentrate sales volumes in the current period. During the fourth quarter of 2025, a total of 28,326 dry metric tons (“dmt”) of lithium concentrates were sold, 84% more than the 15,409 dmt in the third quarter of 2025, but 15% less than the 33,492 dmt in the fourth quarter of 2024. During the quarter, poor quality ore caused recoveries to drop, reducing production volumes. During 2025, a total of 69,180 dmt of lithium concentrates were sold, 22% less than the 88,966 dmt in 2024, due primarily to the failure of one piece of equipment in the second quarter of 2025 associated with our expansion project. The average realized sales price was $689/dmt CIF China for the fourth quarter of 2025, and the average realized sales price for the year was $632/dmt CIF China. The average cost per ton for the current quarter was $489/dmt CIF China. The average cost per ton increased from $290/dmt in the fourth quarter of 2024 due to the lower volumes and higher cost of mining activities in the current quarter. The average cost per ton for full year 2025 was $488/dmt CIF China compared to $458/dmt CIF China for 2024.

Recycling Industry Events This Week (December. 29-31)