Zhang Haideng, deputy director of the Raw Materials Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the 2023 (14th) China Iron and Steel Development Forum on March 25 that capacity replacement shall be implemented in great efforts and new capacity shall be prohibited this year.

According to media reports citing sources, during trade negotiations with the US, India proposed a mutual tariff exemption scheme for steel, auto parts, and pharmaceutical products, but only for a certain volume of imports. Sources familiar with the matter said that industrial products imported beyond a certain volume threshold would revert to normal tariff levels. This proposal was made by Indian trade officials during their visit to Washington at the end of last month to expedite negotiations on a bilateral trade agreement, which is expected to be reached this autumn. It is understood that the US and India are prioritizing consultations on some key industries, aiming to reach a preliminary trade agreement before the end of the 90-day suspension period of the "reciprocal tariff" imposed by US President Trump. In early April, Trump announced that reciprocal tariffs would be imposed on more than 180 trading partners, with India facing a 26% tariff rate. However, Trump soon announced a 90-day tariff "suspension period" for most countries, temporarily shelving the additional reciprocal tariffs, but still imposing a 10% benchmark tariff. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said last week that India may be one of the first countries to sign a trade agreement with the US. Trump said last Sunday that some trade agreements could be finalised as early as this week. Asian economies, including South Korea, Japan, and India, are actively engaging with the US to take the lead in reaching provisional agreements. Sources also said that the US has asked India to address its concerns about the "Quality Control Orders" (QCO), which the US believes constitute non-tariff barriers to its exports. The QCO requires local and foreign manufacturers to meet mandatory quality standards before entering the Indian market, but these regulations have been criticized for lacking transparency and fairness. India is willing to revisit its existing QCO system in industries such as medical devices and chemicals and has proposed signing a "Mutual Recognition Agreement" with the US to achieve mutual recognition of regulatory standards and enforcement rules between the two countries. It is not yet clear whether the above proposals will be included in the final agreement. It is worth mentioning that, according to previous media reports, India had considered eliminating import taxes on US liquefied natural gas (LNG) to expand procurement and help reduce its trade surplus with the US. Last year, India's total trade surplus with the US reached $45.4 billion.

Stainless steel futures prices hovered around 15,100 yuan/mt last week, once growing to over 15,300 yuan/mt.

June 4 News: According to SMM statistics, on June 4, the inventory of aluminum ingots in Guangdong was 206,000 mt; in Wuxi, it was 130,000 mt; and in Gongyi, it was 55,500 mt. The total inventory across these three locations was 391,500 mt, a decrease of 10,500 mt from the previous trading day.

LME copper prices opened at $10321/mt and closed at $10282/mt in last evening trading, a gain of 2.05%, with the low-end of $10124/mt and the high-end of $10335/mt. Trading volume was 44,000 lots, and open interest stood at 337,000 lots.

March 25th, SMM News: On March 25th, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened at 135,110 yuan/ton and closed at 133,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,380 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price. Intraday trading weakened compared to the previous trading day, with a decrease in trading volume of 43,048 lots and a decrease in open interest of 5,215 lots...

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a bearish candlestick, with resistance formed by various moving averages above. Dragged down by the decline in the overseas market and the continuous drop in ferrous metals prices, SHFE zinc fluctuated downward. However, the absence of a significant inventory buildup in the social inventory limited the decline in zinc prices.

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[SMM Analysis: January Refined Tin Production Continues to Decline; Most Smelters Plan to Halt Production for Maintenance During Chinese New Year]: According to data processed by SMM based on market exchanges, in January 2024, China's refined tin production decreased by 4.62% MoM, but achieved a slight YoY increase of 0.65%. Affected by the tightening supply of tin ore and scrap, the overall domestic tin ingot output showed a downward trend in January. In Yunnan, the persistent low volume of tin ore imports from Myanmar, coupled with a decline in tin ore imports from other countries, has posed severe challenges to raw material supply for local smelters. Under these circumstances, most smelters opted to maintain the status quo or moderately reduce production scales. If Myanmar's tin ore production ban policy remains unchanged, we expect smelter production in Yunnan to continue declining. Additionally, the recent continuous drop in tin concentrate TC has fallen below the cost line for some smelters, forcing a few to halt production for maintenance during the Chinese New Year holiday.

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