[[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]]Geopolitical Risks and Cost Drivers Combined: Weekly Increase in ADC12 Prices Reached 1,000 Yuan

SMM February 28: According to SMM statistics, overseas aluminum production in February 2026 increased 2.5% YoY; new aluminum projects in Indonesia and Angola continued ramping up, with overseas daily average production rising 0.9% MoM. On February 17, 2026, Alba released its Q4 and annual report for 2025. The report showed Alba’s production hit a record high of 1,623,139 mt in 2025, exceeding targets despite a fire incident at year-end. The affected production line is currently in the recovery phase. On February 19, 2026, Century Aluminum announced its Q4 results. The report indicated primary aluminum shipments fell 14% QoQ in Q4 2025, mainly due to production declines caused by equipment failure at its Iceland plant. In 2026, the 50,000 mt idle capacity at Mt. Holly is expected to resume production in April, reaching full capacity by the end of Q2; the Iceland plant is expected to restart earlier than planned, now scheduled to begin production resumptions by the end of April 2026 and approach full capacity by the end of July. South 32’s performance report maintained Mozal aluminum smelter’s FY2026 production guidance at 240,000 mt, with the plant expected to begin maintenance shutdown from March 15. However, foreign media reported the government is taking necessary measures to maintain Mozal’s operations. SMM will continue monitoring. Looking ahead to March 2026, operating capacity at new aluminum projects in Indonesia and Angola is expected to continue climbing, but production cuts or shutdown risks at the Mozambique plant may cause daily average aluminum production to turn negative. Nevertheless, high aluminum prices continue to stimulate global aluminum supply acceleration, with the Iceland plant’s restart expected ahead of schedule and other plants slightly increasing operating rates. Overall, aluminum supply is expected to maintain growth, though global aluminum inventory trends warrant ongoing attention.

SMM February 28 News: According to SMM statistics, overseas aluminum production totaled in February 2026 increased 2.5% YoY; new aluminum projects in Indonesia and Angola continued ramping up, with the overseas daily average production up 0.9% MoM. On February 17, 2026, Alba released its Q4 and annual report for 2025. The report showed that Alba's production hit a record high of 1,623,139 mt in 2025, exceeding targets despite a fire accident at year-end 2025. The production line affected by the fire is currently in the recovery phase. On February 19, 2026, Century Aluminum announced its Q4 results. The report indicated that primary aluminum shipments in Q4 2025 fell 14% QoQ, mainly due to production declines caused by equipment failure at the Iceland aluminum plant. In 2026, the 50,000 mt idle capacity at the Mt. Holly plant is expected to resume production in April, reaching full capacity by the end of Q2; the Iceland plant is expected to restart earlier than originally planned, now scheduled to begin production resumptions by the end of April 2026 and recover to near full capacity by the end of July. South 32's performance report showed that the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique maintained its FY2026 guidance production of 240,000 mt, meaning the Mozal plant is expected to transition into maintenance shutdown from March 15. However, foreign media reported that the government is taking necessary measures to keep the Mozal plant operating. SMM will continue monitoring. Looking ahead to March 2026, operating capacity at new aluminum projects in Indonesia and Angola is expected to continue climbing, but the Mozal plant faces risks of output reduction or shutdown. Affected by this, daily average aluminum production may turn to negative growth. Nevertheless, high aluminum prices continue to stimulate global aluminum supply acceleration; the Iceland plant's production resumption is expected earlier than planned; other plants also slightly increased operating rates. Overall, aluminum supply is expected to maintain growth, and global aluminum inventory trends need ongoing attention. [Data Source Statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.] Data Source: SMM (Guo Mingxin 021-20707919)

Australian mining company Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) released its Q4 2024 operational report. FMG's iron ore production in Q4 reached 61.9 million mt, up 8% QoQ and up 12% YoY.

Australian mining company Fortescue (FMG) released its operational report for Q1 2025 (Q3 of the 2025 Australian fiscal year), which showed the following: Production: In Q1, FMG's iron ore production reached 55.5 million mt, down 10% QoQ and up 19% YoY. The total iron ore processing volume was 47.6 million mt, down 7% QoQ and up 12% YoY. Shipments: In Q1, FMG's iron ore shipments reached 46.1 million mt, down 7% QoQ and up 6% YoY. Financials: In Q1, FMG's C1 cash cost was $17.53/wmt (based on Pilbara hematite), down 4% QoQ and down 7% YoY. Additionally, the shipment guidance for the 2025 fiscal year is 190-200 million mt, with a C1 cost target of $18.5-19.75/wmt (based on Pilbara hematite).

Australian mining company Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) released its Q4 2024 operational report. Iron ore production in Q4 reached 61.90 million mt, up 8% QoQ and up 12% YoY. FMG's iron ore shipments in Q4 totaled 49.40 million mt, up 4% QoQ and up 1% YoY.

Rio Tinto Released Q4 Production and Sales Report: In Terms of Production: Q4 Pilbara Operations Iron Ore Production Was 87.5 Million Mt

[SMM Analysis: Q1 Production of Top 15 Miners Released, Copper Concentrates Supply Not Looking Optimistic] The copper production of the top 15 miners in Q1 2025 has been released. According to SMM statistics, the Q1 copper production of the top 15 miners was 2,967 kt (metal content), down 0.8% YoY and 12.8% QoQ. However, based on the Q1 production data, the raw material supply this year does not seem optimistic.

Most mining companies have released their Q1 financial reports. Unexpected factors such as heavy rainfalls, floods, and safety incidents were frequent in Q1, significantly affecting production, which saw a sharp decline on the quarter but remained flat YoY.

China Northern Rare Earth announced on the evening of April 9: According to the rare earth concentrate pricing method and the Q1 2,025 rare earth oxide prices, after calculation and approval at the 6th general manager's office meeting of 2,025, the Q2 2,025 rare earth concentrate transaction price was adjusted to 18,825 yuan/mt (dry weight, REO=50%), excluding tax. For every 1% increase or decrease in REO, the price excluding tax increases or decreases by 376.50 yuan/mt. The price of 18,825 yuan/mt increased by 207 yuan/mt compared to the Q1 2,025 transaction price of 18,618 yuan/mt, up 1.11% QoQ. The Q2 rare earth concentrate transaction price between China Northern Rare Earth and Bao Gang United Steel increased by 1.11% QoQ. The announcement from China Northern Rare Earth on the evening of April 9 showed that the company held the 25th meeting of the 8th board of directors and the first extraordinary general meeting of shareholders of 2,023 on March 14 and March 30, 2,023, respectively, and reviewed and approved the "Proposal on the Pricing Mechanism for Daily Related Party Transactions of Rare Earth Concentrate and the Execution of 2,022 and the Forecast of 2,023." The company agreed with its related party, Inner Mongolia Bao Gang Steel Union Co., Ltd., that from April 1, 2,023, under the condition that the rare earth concentrate pricing formula remains unchanged, the company's management will calculate and adjust the rare earth concentrate price in the first ten days of each quarter, and re-sign the rare earth concentrate supply contract or supplementary agreement and announce it. According to the rare earth concentrate pricing method and the Q1 2,025 rare earth oxide prices, after calculation and approval at the 6th general manager's office meeting of 2,025, the Q2 2,025 rare earth concentrate transaction price was adjusted to 18,825 yuan/mt (dry weight, REO=50%), excluding tax. For every 1% increase or decrease in REO, the price excluding tax increases or decreases by 376.50 yuan/mt. The Q2 rare earth concentrate transaction price increased by 207 yuan/mt compared to the Q1 transaction price of 18,618 yuan/mt, up 1.11% QoQ. China Northern Rare Earth announced on January 9 that according to the rare earth concentrate pricing method and the Q4 2,024 rare earth oxide prices, after calculation and approval at the 1st general manager's office meeting of 2,025, the Q1 2,025 rare earth concentrate transaction price was adjusted to 18,618 yuan/mt (dry weight, REO=50%), excluding tax. For every 1% increase or decrease in REO, the price excluding tax increases or decreases by 372.36 yuan/mt. Compared with the Q4 2,024 rare earth concentrate transaction price of 17,782 yuan/mt, it increased by 836 yuan/mt, up 4.7% QoQ. China Northern Rare Earth announced on the evening of October 9, 2,024: According to the rare earth concentrate pricing method and the Q3 2,024 rare earth oxide prices, after calculation and approval at the 19th general manager's office meeting of 2,024, the Q4 2,024 rare earth concentrate transaction price was adjusted to 17,782 yuan/mt (dry weight, REO=50%), excluding tax. For every 1% increase or decrease in REO, the price excluding tax increases or decreases by 355.64 yuan/mt. Compared with the Q3 2,024 price of 16,741 yuan/mt, it increased by 1,041 yuan/mt, up 6.22% QoQ. China Northern Rare Earth announced on the evening of July 9, 2,024: According to the rare earth concentrate pricing method and the Q2 2,024 rare earth oxide prices, after calculation and approval at the 13th general manager's office meeting of 2,024, the Q3 2,024 rare earth concentrate transaction price was adjusted to 16,741 yuan/mt (dry weight, REO=50%), excluding tax. For every 1% increase or decrease in REO, the price excluding tax increases or decreases by 334.82 yuan/mt. Compared with the Q2 2,024 price of 16,792 yuan/mt, it decreased by 51 yuan/mt, down 0.3% QoQ. China Northern Rare Earth announced on the evening of April 9, 2,024: According to the rare earth concentrate pricing method and the Q1 2,024 rare earth oxide prices, after calculation and approval at the 6th general manager's office meeting of 2,024, the Q2 2,024 rare earth concentrate transaction price was adjusted to 16,792 yuan/mt (dry weight, REO=50%), excluding tax. For every 1% increase or decrease in REO, the price excluding tax increases or decreases by 335.84 yuan/mt. Compared with the Q1 2,024 price, it decreased by 3,945 yuan/mt, down 19.02% QoQ. China Northern Rare Earth announced on the evening of January 9, 2,024: According to the rare earth concentrate pricing method and the Q4 2,023 rare earth oxide prices, after calculation and approval at the 1st general manager's office meeting of 2,024, the Q1 2,024 rare earth concentrate transaction price was adjusted to 20,737 yuan/mt (dry weight, REO=50%), excluding tax. Compared with the Q4 2,023 price, it increased by 201 yuan/mt, up 0.98% QoQ. The Q2 rare earth concentrate transaction price between Bao Gang United Steel and China Northern Rare Earth continued the QoQ increase trend of Q1 this year. The Q1 rare earth concentrate transaction price between Bao Gang United Steel and China Northern Rare Earth increased by 4.7% QoQ. Reviewing the changes in the rare earth concentrate transaction price between Bao Gang United Steel and China Northern Rare Earth in 2,024, it can be seen that the Q1 2,024 rare earth concentrate transaction price of China Northern Rare Earth increased slightly QoQ, the Q2 2,024 rare earth concentrate transaction price of China Northern Rare Earth decreased significantly QoQ, the Q3 2,024 rare earth concentrate transaction price of China Northern Rare Earth decreased slightly QoQ, close to flat, and the Q4 2,024 rare earth concentrate transaction price of China Northern Rare Earth increased QoQ.