According to Mining Weekly, data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) showed that the country's mining production fell by 7.7% YoY in April, mainly due to declines in platinum group metals and gold production, although the growth in iron ore production partially mitigated the decline. Seasonally adjusted production increased by 0.6% MoM in April, compared to changes of 3.6% and -3.9% in March and February, respectively. Stats SA found that seasonally adjusted mining production decreased by 2.7% QoQ from February to April. The largest negative impact came from platinum group metals, while the largest contribution was from iron ore. Meanwhile, Stats SA also found that the sales value of mineral products increased by 0.7% YoY at current prices in April. The largest contributor was gold, with sales increasing by 57.6%, contributing 9.4 percentage points, followed by manganese ore, with sales increasing by 66.6%, contributing 3.3 percentage points. The largest drag was from platinum group metals, which fell by 20.1%, pulling down the index by 4.7 percentage points, followed by iron ore, which fell by 25.9%, pulling down the index by 3.5 percentage points. Seasonally adjusted sales value of mineral products at current prices increased by 6.7% MoM in April. It increased by 1.6% in March and decreased by 8.6% in February. Seasonally adjusted sales value of mineral products decreased by 8.5% QoQ from February to April.

According to foreign news on April 12, data from Peruvian Ministry of Energy and Mines (MINEM) showed that copper production in Peru, the world's second largest copper producer, reached 192,334 mt in February, an increase of 11.6% from February 2022 (172,335 mt).

[[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]]Geopolitical Risks and Cost Drivers Combined: Weekly Increase in ADC12 Prices Reached 1,000 Yuan

According to MiningWeekly, South Africa's mining production fell by 2.8% YoY in March, primarily due to decreased production of platinum group metals (PGMs) and gold. Data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) showed that PGM production declined by 9.9% and gold production by 11.1%, while iron ore production increased by 7.5% YoY. Seasonally adjusted mining production rose by 3.5% MoM in March, following a 4.1% decline in February and a 0.2% increase in January. Seasonally adjusted mining production fell by 4.5% QoQ in Q1. The decline was mainly driven by PGMs, though the increase in iron ore production partially offset the decrease. Seasonally adjusted sales of mineral products rose by 0.5% MoM at current prices, following a 9.6% decline in February and a 1.4% increase in January. Seasonally adjusted sales of mineral products fell by 10.1% QoQ in Q1. Bongani Motsa, senior analyst at the Minerals Council South Africa, stated that future gold demand is expected to remain stable, which should benefit South African gold companies. "Gold is a barometer of global events. It has various uses, from jewelry to industrial applications and as a safe-haven investment tool. These characteristics make gold a timeless and ideal metal," he said. Additionally, he pointed out that despite the contraction in PGM production in February, exports and export revenues were higher than pre-2019 pandemic levels. He believes that the short- to medium-term outlook for chrome and manganese is positive, especially given the easing of trade tensions.

[South Africa's platinum group metals and gold production fell in Q1] According to MiningWeekly, South Africa's mining production fell by 2.8% YoY in March, mainly due to a decrease in the production of platinum group metals and gold. Data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) showed that platinum group metals production fell by 9.9%, and gold production fell by 11.1%, but iron ore production was up 7.5% YoY.

France's Eramet SA, one of the biggest producers, said the London Metal Exchange (LME) has lost its benchmark status in a key sector of the nickel market since a massive short sale last year, according to Bloomberg.

I. Cobalt Price Review During Chinese New Year During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15 to February 23), domestic refined cobalt electronic night session trading saw prices rebound slightly from previous lows. The spot market was relatively sluggish due to logistics suspensions. Overseas prices showed divergence: the low end of standard-grade refined cobalt remained stable, while the high end increased by $0.1/lb; both low and high ends of alloy-grade refined cobalt rose by $0.3/lb and $0.4/lb, respectively. CIF China cobalt hydroxide prices remained stable. II. Market Dynamics Cuba's fuel shortage will force Sherritt to suspend its nickel-cobalt operations: Due to ongoing tight fuel supply in Cuba, Sherritt International Corp. plans to suspend mining and processing operations at its Moa nickel-cobalt joint project and has already scaled down operations ahead of schedule, with suspension expected in the short term. Planned maintenance will be conducted during the shutdown. Failure to secure fuel deliveries is the direct cause of the suspension; the company is communicating with relevant parties and evaluating alternative input sources. The project, in partnership with state-owned General Nickel Company SA, typically ships semi-finished products to a refinery in Alberta, Canada, which has an integrated capacity of approximately 38,200 mt. However, this production accounts for a relatively small share of global nickel supply, so the impact on the international market is limited, though it will affect the company's finances and Cuba's economy. Meanwhile, Energas SA, an energy joint venture in which Sherritt holds a one-third stake, continues normal operations, supplying natural gas for power generation to Cuba's power grid, unaffected by this incident. Overall, the suspension reflects the direct constraints of Cuba's long-term economic and energy crisis on industrial projects. Sumitomo's Madagascar nickel-cobalt project shuts down due to cyclone damage: Japan's Sumitomo Corporation stated on February 18 that its Ambatovy nickel-cobalt project in Madagascar was shut down after Tropical Cyclone Ghezani hit the island last week, causing facility damage. Operations were suspended immediately once signs of the cyclone became apparent, with safety as the top priority, the company said in a statement. It added that a detailed assessment of the damage, including equipment conditions and the impact on revenue, is currently underway. Sumitomo will work to identify the extent of the losses as soon as possible and collaborate with relevant parties to implement appropriate recovery and reconstruction measures, the statement added. A company spokesperson said the timeline for restarting operations is undetermined and assessing the extent of the damage is expected to take several weeks. Ambatovy is owned by Sumitomo, with state-owned Korea Mine Rehabilitation and Mineral Resources Corp (KOMIR) producing approximately 28,000 mt of nickel and about 2,500 mt of cobalt in 2024. III. Post-Holiday Outlook Supply side, cobalt raw materials from the DRC are still unable to be replenished in the short term, and enterprises are facing pressure from raw material shortages. Coupled with production halts at some enterprises during the Chinese New Year holiday, production plans have been reduced. Refined cobalt production in February is expected to remain low, and the overall supply of cobalt salts is projected to decline slightly. Demand side, prior to the Chinese New Year, some downstream ternary cathode precursor enterprises showed increased purchase willingness and active inquiries due to concerns about rising cobalt sulphate prices after the holiday. However, as logistics were about to halt at that time, actual transactions were relatively limited. With the resumption of logistics after the holiday and downstream enterprises gradually resuming production and restocking, demand is expected to be gradually released. Looking ahead, against the backdrop of continued support from raw material costs, phased tightening of supply, and phased recovery in demand, refined cobalt and cobalt salt prices are expected to resume an upward trend.

Citi said the recent rise in iron ore prices could continue if China steps up policy stimulus, with the steelmaking commodity expected to hit $130/mt by the end of the year.

In the upcoming 2025, we foresee that the global economy will face a series of complex and ever-changing challenges. With the US election settled, the uncertainty of global trade policies will further increase, presenting new issues for international trade cooperation. In the realm of geopolitics, ongoing conflicts and tensions show no significant signs of easing, posing not only a threat to global security but also having a significant impact on resource allocation and industrial layout. Against this macro backdrop, industrial relocation and supply chain restructuring have become key topics that we must closely monitor. At the industry level, the trend towards protectionism in mineral resources is on the rise, directly affecting the stability of global copper concentrate TCs. As global primary smelting capacity rapidly expands, the profit margins of copper smelters are being further squeezed, with the challenges facing the industry becoming increasingly severe. In the field of secondary copper raw materials, the advancement of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards and the "dual carbon" goals have significantly increased market attention on secondary copper. However, the "reverse invoicing" policy and the Fair Competition Regulations implemented in 2024 have had a profound impact on the secondary copper industry. Looking ahead to 2025, changes in the landscape of the secondary copper industry will have a critical impact on the entire copper industry chain. Additionally, as tax subsidies and other incentive measures are phased out, the space for copper cathode trade will further narrow. We expect that there will be a more pronounced differentiation in the procurement ratios of copper processing materials between traders and smelters. Against this backdrop, SMM has meticulously prepared the "CCIE 2025SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Expo," which will be grandly held in Nanchang, Jiangxi from April 22-25, 2025. Jinzhou Changcheng Technology Group Co., Ltd. will attend this conference in full regalia. We will keep pace with the times, aim at our goals, and forge ahead with courage and determination! Click the registration form to sign up immediately; we look forward to meeting you at the conference. Booth Number: C17 Jinzhou Changcheng Technology Group Co., Ltd., with its subsidiaries Jinzhou Great Wall Refractories Co., Ltd., Kunming Great Wall Refractories Co., Ltd., and Jinzhou Great Wall Smelting Technology Co., Ltd., is a comprehensive high-tech enterprise with independent intellectual property rights. The company mainly produces high-end SA spinel refractory materials. Its products have been widely and successfully applied in domestic and overseas non-ferrous metallurgy, ferrous metallurgy, building materials, petrochemicals, power, hazardous and solid waste treatment industries, and have been exported in bulk to countries and regions such as South Africa, Peru, DRC, Thailand, India, Iran, Indonesia, and Malaysia. The SA Great Wall series of spinel refractory materials, based on the different damage mechanisms of refractory materials in various parts of metallurgical equipment and the differences in the types, compositions, and properties of melts, are produced through adjusting the composition of refractory materials and various physical and chemical indicators. This results in a unique series of products with excellent resistance to chemical corrosion, high-temperature fluid erosion, and superior thermal shock resistance, with lifespans several times longer than those of conventional refractory materials. Our SA spinel products have been used in various furnaces for over 20 years. Based on a deep understanding of the production process characteristics and smelting mechanisms of various furnaces, we have developed a complete SA technology system that can provide users with overall solutions based on refractory materials, significantly improving the compatibility between product performance and working conditions. This highlights the personalization and functionality of the SA Great Wall series, bringing the service life of metallurgical equipment to world-advanced levels. In 2023, the company was awarded the title of Manufacturing Champion Enterprise by the organizing committee of the 8th China Manufacturing Power Forum. Application cases include top-blowing equipment at manufacturers in Tongling, Anhui, and Daye, Hubei, which, without water jacket protection, have been in continuous use for four years, setting a world-class benchmark. Contact Information: Jing Qian: 18988403307 SMM Conference Contact: Yizhe Huang 13958992666 huangyizhe@smm.cn

SMM February 28: According to SMM statistics, overseas aluminum production in February 2026 increased 2.5% YoY; new aluminum projects in Indonesia and Angola continued ramping up, with overseas daily average production rising 0.9% MoM. On February 17, 2026, Alba released its Q4 and annual report for 2025. The report showed Alba’s production hit a record high of 1,623,139 mt in 2025, exceeding targets despite a fire incident at year-end. The affected production line is currently in the recovery phase. On February 19, 2026, Century Aluminum announced its Q4 results. The report indicated primary aluminum shipments fell 14% QoQ in Q4 2025, mainly due to production declines caused by equipment failure at its Iceland plant. In 2026, the 50,000 mt idle capacity at Mt. Holly is expected to resume production in April, reaching full capacity by the end of Q2; the Iceland plant is expected to restart earlier than planned, now scheduled to begin production resumptions by the end of April 2026 and approach full capacity by the end of July. South 32’s performance report maintained Mozal aluminum smelter’s FY2026 production guidance at 240,000 mt, with the plant expected to begin maintenance shutdown from March 15. However, foreign media reported the government is taking necessary measures to maintain Mozal’s operations. SMM will continue monitoring. Looking ahead to March 2026, operating capacity at new aluminum projects in Indonesia and Angola is expected to continue climbing, but production cuts or shutdown risks at the Mozambique plant may cause daily average aluminum production to turn negative. Nevertheless, high aluminum prices continue to stimulate global aluminum supply acceleration, with the Iceland plant’s restart expected ahead of schedule and other plants slightly increasing operating rates. Overall, aluminum supply is expected to maintain growth, though global aluminum inventory trends warrant ongoing attention.