The beginning of 2026 did not bring the calm usually expected in the global stainless steel industry chain ahead of the traditional Lunar New Year offseason. Instead, under the double pincer attack of surging raw material costs and escalating trade protectionism, the market is undergoing a violent restructuring.

In summary, during the 2026 Chinese New Year period, the five segments of the aluminum industry chain exhibited differentiated operational trends.

In mid-February 2026, the CAAM and the China Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance successively released data related to the automotive and power battery markets for January 2026. According to analysis by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January 2026, the automotive industry overall operated steadily, the passenger vehicle market experienced some decline, the commercial vehicle market continued its positive trend, the new energy vehicle market operated smoothly, and auto exports maintained growth.......SMM compiled relevant data for the automotive market and power battery market in January 2026 for readers' reference. Automotive Sector CAAM: Auto Production and Sales Both Exceeded 2 Million Units in January 2026, Production Edged Up YoY In January, auto production and sales reached 2.45 million and 2.346 million units respectively, with production up 0.01% YoY , while sales fell 3.2% YoY, and dropped 25.7% and 28.3% MoM respectively. CAAM: China's NEV Production and Sales Reached 1.041 Million and 945,000 Units Respectively in January 2026, Up 2.5% and 0.1% YoY In January, NEV production and sales reached 1.041 million and 945,000 units respectively, increasing 2.5% and 0.1% YoY respectively , with NEV new car sales accounting for 40.3% of total new car sales. CAAM: Auto Exports Continued Growth in January, NEV Exports Saw Rapid Growth In January, auto exports reached 681,000 units, up 44.9% YoY , but down 9.5% MoM . NEV exports were 302,000 units, doubling YoY and rising 0.5% MoM ; traditional fuel vehicle exports were 380,000 units, up 18.8% YoY , but falling 16.1% MoM. Regarding the January auto market, CAAM stated that the automotive industry overall operated steadily, the passenger vehicle market saw some decline, the commercial vehicle market continued its positive trend, the NEV market operated smoothly, and auto exports maintained growth. The main factors contributing to the market decline were: first, the transition adjustment of the NEV purchase tax policy; second, many local car purchase subsidy policies were at the annual transition period; third, some consumer demand was released in advance during 2025. In the first month of 2026, the state intensively introduced a series of policies benefiting people and enterprises to support people's livelihoods and economic development. Among these, the "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins" policy transitioned smoothly and orderly, with various regions successively following up and releasing implementation rules; the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption" focused on key areas such as the automotive aftermarket service to stimulate market vitality. As supporting policies are refined and implemented, they help stabilize and rebound auto-market demand and keep the industry running smoothly. CAAM stated that the 15th Five-Year Plan period is the critical window for China’s automotive industry to shift to high-quality growth; the sector must keep the market stable while focusing on raising quality and efficiency. Meanwhile, the Passenger Car Association released January passenger-vehicle data. Retail sales reached 1.544 million units, down 13.9% YoY. Given complex market factors, the “low-start, high-finish” annual pattern has been pronounced; January retail has been weak since 2020 (-21% in 2020, +27% in 2021, -5% in 2022, -38% in 2023, +58% in 2024, -12% in 2025), so 2026’s -13.9% sits in the middle of January’s historical wild swings. For NEVs, January passenger NEV retail was 596,000 units, down 20.0% YoY; conventional ICE passenger vehicles sold 948,000 units, down 10%. Exports: 286,000 passenger NEVs shipped, up 103.6% YoY , accounting for 49.6% of total passenger-vehicle exports and 12.5 percentage points higher than last year. Pure-electric made up 65% of NEV exports (67% last year), with A00+A0 pure-electric accounting for 50% (41%). Leveraging scale advantages and expansion needs, more Chinese NEV brands are going global and gaining overseas recognition. Plug-in hybrids comprised 33% of NEV exports (32%), and despite recent external headwinds, self-owned plug-in hybrid exports to developing markets are surging, promising strong prospects. The PCA noted that after the NEV purchase-tax exemption ended in December 2025, the market is in a normal recovery phase. Some consumers front-loaded purchases to capture the incentive, creating a short-term overhang in January—an expected fluctuation, not a long-term trend. January features: (1) Producer exports hit a January record, with passenger NEV exports also at a January high, underscoring rising global competitiveness and robust overseas demand; (2) Post-incentive retail pulled back, yet high-end NEV share rose, showing upgrading consumers favor premium NEVs and aiding high-quality transformation; (3) 2026 new-model launches are steady, and “anti-involution” curbs on disorderly discounting kept January NEV incentives at 10.1%, the fifth consecutive month near 10%, averting volume-driven price wars and preserving order; (4) The historical pattern of ICE outperforming NEVs before Chinese New Year repeated: ICE retail down 10% YoY, pure-electric down 17.0%, range-extender up 0.8%, plug-in hybrid down 31.2%; as the December overhang fades, NEVs should return to growth; (5) January domestic NEV penetration was 38.6%, export penetration 49.6%; (6) January self-owned ICE exports were 250,000 units, up 17% YoY, self-owned NEV exports 226,000, up 115% YoY, with NEVs 47.5% of self-owned exports—especially strong in Europe and Southeast Asia—cementing Chinese NEV brands’ expanding global influence and laying a solid foundation for future export growth. Power Battery Sector In January, China's Power and ESS Battery Sales Totaled 148.8 GWh, Up 85.1% YoY In January, China's power and ESS battery sales reached 148.8 GWh, down 25.4% MoM, but up 85.1% YoY . Specifically, power battery sales were 102.7 GWh, accounting for 69.0% of total sales, down 28.6% MoM and up 63.2% YoY; ESS battery sales were 46.1 GWh, accounting for 31.0% of total sales, down 17.0% MoM and up 164.0% YoY. In January, China's combined exports of power and ESS batteries were 24.1 GWh, down 26.0% MoM, but up 38.3% YoY, accounting for 16.2% of the monthly sales. Among these, power battery exports were 17.7 GWh, accounting for 73.3% of total exports, down 7.1% MoM and up 59.3% YoY; ESS battery exports were 6.4 GWh, accounting for 26.7% of total exports, down 52.6% MoM and up 1.4% YoY. In January, Domestic Power Battery Installations Totaled 42.0 GWh, Up 8.4% YoY In January, domestic power battery installations were 42.0 GWh, down 57.2% MoM, but up 8.4% YoY . Among these, ternary battery installations were 9.4 GWh, accounting for 22.3% of total installations, down 48.6% MoM and up 9.6% YoY; LFP battery installations were 32.7 GWh, accounting for 77.7% of total installations, down 59.1% MoM and up 8.1% YoY. New Automakers Show Divergent YoY Performance in January, Leap Motor Continues to "Lead", Xiaomi Auto Deliveries Exceed 39,000 Units in January According to statistics from a CLS reporter on the January sales of 15 A/H-share listed automakers, 9 automakers achieved YoY growth, accounting for 60%. The increase in NEV sales and expansion into overseas markets were important drivers for the overall growth of these automakers. SAIC's January sales were 327,000 units, up 23.94% YoY, returning to the top sales position. The NEV sector continued to "gain momentum"; in January 2026, SAIC's NEV sales reached 85,000 units, up 39.7% YoY, placing its sales volume in the industry's leading camp. As for Geely, which ranked second, its January sales were 270,200 units, up 1.29% YoY and 14.08% MoM, making it the only enterprise to achieve positive growth both YoY and MoM. Geely stated, "2026 is a major product year for Geely Auto, with the company launching 1-2 all-new products each quarter, including multiple new hybrid models and a new generation of methanol-hydrogen energy vehicles, aiming to achieve the full-year sales target of 3.45 million units." On the export front, Geely has set its 2026 export sales target at 640,000 units, representing a YoY increase of over 50%. In January's new automaker market, based on the delivery figures released by major automakers, deliveries across the board declined MoM compared to December 2025. Among them, Leap Motor continued to lead in 2026, ranking first among new automakers with 32,059 units delivered, up 27.37% YoY but down 46.94% MoM. To stabilize the market, Leap Motor accelerated its channel expansion, recently adding 85 new stores. As of January 5, the total number of stores nationwide reached 1,068, ensuring more users can conveniently experience Leap Motor’s products and services. On February 2, Leap Motor launched new car purchase benefits for February, including a New Year cash discount of 11,000 yuan, a New Year referral reward of up to 10,000 energy points, and a New Year financial offer with 0% interest for up to 5 years. Li Auto regained momentum in January, ranking second after Leap Motor with 27,668 units delivered, down 7.55% YoY and 37.47% MoM. As of January 31, 2026, Li Auto’s cumulative deliveries reached 1,567,883 units. On February 5, Li Xiang, Chairman of Li Auto, stated on social media that the new Li L9 will be launched in 2026, describing it as "not just a car, but the pioneering work of embodied AI robots." Caixin reporters learned that Li Auto has established an AI company structure, including teams for computing and data, base models, software, and hardware, to build capabilities for creating "silicon-based humans." As of January 31, 2026, Li Auto had 547 retail centers nationwide, covering 159 cities, along with 547 after-sales service and authorized service centers covering 221 cities. The company has put into use 3,966 Li Auto supercharging stations with 21,945 charging piles. NIO delivered a total of 27,182 vehicles in January, up 96.08% YoY but down 43.53% MoM. On the afternoon of February 1, the 60,000th new ES8 was delivered in Guangzhou, taking 134 days to reach this milestone. On the same day, NIO launched a 7-year ultra-low interest purchase plan for the new ET5, ET5T, ES6, and EC6, while the Onvo brand introduced a similar plan for the Onvo L60 and L90, featuring a 0.49% annualized rate, zero financial service fee, and no penalty for early repayment. The Firefly brand launched a 7-year ultra-low-interest car purchase plan, with locked orders receiving the Year of the Horse New Year surprise gift pack. XPeng Motors delivered 20,011 new vehicles in January, down 34.07% YoY and down 46.65% MoM. In January, the XPeng X9 continued to sell well, with 4,219 units delivered in the single month, up 413.9% YoY. By the end of January, its cumulative deliveries reached 51,897 units, making it the fastest MPV model among domestic new automakers to exceed 50,000 units in deliveries. In the same month, the 2026 XPeng X9 all-electric version opened for pre-orders. As the "world's longest-range 5C all-electric large seven-seater," the new model's product strength is fully aligned with the market's hot-selling super range-extended version. From now until the new car's launch, paying a 2,000 yuan deposit can offset 7,000 yuan of the car purchase price. Additionally, for Xiaomi Auto, according to its official Weibo data, January deliveries exceeded 39,000 units, even surpassing Leap Motor, which held the top position among new automakers. On the same day, Xiaomi also released related car purchase benefits for the Xiaomi SU7 and Xiaomi SU7 Ultra. The entire Xiaomi YU7 series can enjoy a "7-year low-interest" offer! A new low monthly payment option is available, with a down payment starting at 99,900 yuan and a minimum monthly payment of less than 2,000 yuan. For orders placed before 24:00 on February 28, a "3-year zero-interest" option is available, with a down payment starting at 74,900 yuan and monthly payments as low as 4,961 yuan. At the same time, customers can enjoy up to 66,000 yuan in limited-time car purchase benefits. Regarding store expansion progress, Xiaomi Auto stated that it added 9 new stores in January, bringing the total to 484 stores in 139 cities nationwide; it plans to add 6 new stores in February, expected to cover 2 new cities: Jiangmen and Zhoukou; as of January 31, there were already 270 service outlets nationwide, covering 159 cities. As for BYD, the leader in power batteries, January sales reached 210,051 units, with cumulative new energy sales exceeding 15.3 million. BYD exported a total of 100,482 NEVs in January. It is worth mentioning that there is new news regarding BYD's solid-state batteries. A Cailianshe reporter learned from BYD's investor relations department that BYD is exploring multiple routes in the solid-state battery field, with sulfide solid-state batteries as an important technical direction, achieving breakthroughs in battery life and fast charging, and is expected to achieve small-scale production by 2027. In the sodium-ion battery field, it is already in the development stage of the third-generation product technology platform and has developed sodium-ion battery products with 10,000 cycles; the mass production period will be determined based on actual market and client demand. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the CPCA, commented that given the recent expiration of the vehicle purchase tax exemption policy, only some provinces and cities have launched vehicle replacement subsidy policies; coupled with the fact that mid-January last year was the peak sales period before the Chinese New Year, the impact of the holiday timing shift makes the weak retail performance of the auto market in January reasonable. It is anticipated that as the detailed rules for replacement subsidies are gradually refined across various regions, subsidy application channels become more accessible, and the potential car purchase demand before the Chinese New Year is gradually released, the automotive retail market is expected to recover and improve steadily. National and Local Governments Mention Policies to Boost Auto Consumption at the Beginning of 2026; Over 20 Regions Introduce New Trade-in and Car Purchase Subsidy Policies Entering 2026, with the phase-out of national subsidies, multi-pronged policies to stimulate consumption are being intensively rolled out from the national to local levels. According to incomplete statistics, more than 20 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Zhejiang, and Sichuan, have released detailed rules for automotive trade-in, retirement and renewal, or car purchase subsidy programs. On December 31, 2025, the General Office of the Ministry of Commerce and seven other departments issued the "Detailed Implementation Rules for Automotive Trade-in Subsidies in 2026," which officially took effect on January 1, 2026. The rules stipulate that in 2026, a one-time subsidy will be provided to individual consumers who retire gasoline passenger vehicles registered before June 30, 2013, diesel or other fuel passenger vehicles registered before June 30, 2015, or new energy passenger vehicles registered before December 31, 2019, and purchase new energy passenger vehicles included in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s "Catalog of NEV Models Eligible for Vehicle Purchase Tax Reduction and Exemption" or fuel-powered passenger vehicles with a displacement of 2.0 liters or less. For retiring the aforementioned eligible old vehicles and purchasing new energy passenger vehicles, a subsidy equivalent to 12% of the new vehicle’s selling price (including tax, the same hereinafter) will be granted, with the subsidy amount (rounded up to the nearest yuan, the same hereinafter) capped at 20,000 yuan. For retiring the aforementioned eligible fuel-powered passenger vehicles and purchasing fuel-powered passenger vehicles with a displacement of 2.0 liters or less, a subsidy equivalent to 10% of the new vehicle’s selling price will be granted, with the subsidy amount capped at 15,000 yuan. The Passenger Car Association analyzed that the key words for the 2026 trade-in policy are not "further escalation" but "more sustainable, more balanced, and more regulated." Changing the subsidy amount to a percentage of the vehicle price with an upper limit aims to achieve a more balanced use of subsidies, avoiding situations where subsidies are suspended due to rapid depletion of funds in the early stages. Algorithm adjustments will also have a certain impact on the automotive market structure: the stimulus for low-priced models will be significantly weakened, while models priced between 160,000 and 200,000 yuan will be able to fully utilize the subsidies, making them more favorable for upgrade purchases. Producers need to meet market demand with product competitiveness and financial solutions, emphasizing "long-term value" such as driving range, intelligence, and refueling experience, rather than relying solely on one-time subsidies. The China Automobile Dealers Association also stated that the 2026 automotive trade-in policy strengthens overall coordination and promotes the efficient and direct allocation of subsidy funds. This ensures that limited funds benefit more consumers, particularly meeting the needs of essential demand groups. The scope of benefiting vehicle owners is expected to further expand, with the support focus more clearly targeting the encouragement of retiring old vehicles and purchasing energy-efficient and NEVs. Implementation emphasizes leveraging market mechanisms to make subsidies more aligned with actual needs. The application process is clear and convenient, with improved supervision and management mechanisms. Overall, the policy is expected to continuously stimulate consumption vitality, adding new momentum for the transformation, upgrading, and high-quality development of the automotive industry. Since the beginning of 2026, according to incomplete statistics, multiple provinces and cities including Shanghai, Beijing, Sichuan, and Shandong have successively released detailed rules for the automotive trade-in policy, continuously promoting local automotive consumption: [Shanghai 2026 Automotive Trade-In Policy Implemented, Maximum Subsidy of 20,000 Yuan] Shanghai's 2026 automotive trade-in policy has been implemented. The Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce and seven other departments jointly issued the "Detailed Implementation Rules for Shanghai's 2026 Automotive Trade-In Subsidy Policy," officially launching subsidy activities for vehicle retirement renewal and replacement renewal. Individual consumers can receive a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan. The policy has been in effect since January 1, 2026, with applications accepted until January 10, 2027. [Hubei 2026 Automotive Trade-In Subsidy Rules Implemented, Maximum Subsidy of 20,000 Yuan] Hubei Provincial Department of Commerce, together with the Provincial Development and Reform Commission, Department of Economy and Information Technology, and five other departments, officially issued the "Detailed Implementation Rules for Hubei's 2026 Automotive Trade-In Subsidy Policy." It specifies that special subsidies will be provided to individual consumers purchasing NEVs and small-displacement fuel passenger vehicles through two main methods: retirement renewal and replacement renewal, with a maximum subsidy amount of 20,000 yuan. The policy officially took effect on January 1, 2026. [Xi'an 2026 Automotive Trade-In Subsidy Rules Implemented, Up to 20,000 Yuan Subsidy for Retiring Old Vehicles for NEVs] Xi'an released the "Detailed Implementation Rules for Xi'an's 2026 Automotive Trade-In Subsidy Policy," clarifying that special subsidies will be provided to individual consumers purchasing new vehicles through two models: retirement renewal and replacement renewal. The policy covers the entire year, with subsidy applications accepted until January 10, 2027, further reducing citizens' car purchase costs and aiding the upgrade of the automotive consumer market. [Beijing 2026 Automotive Trade-In Subsidy Starts on February 9, Maximum Subsidy of 20,000 Yuan] Beijing's 2026 automotive trade-in subsidy policy has been officially announced. On February 6, reporters learned that Beijing officially released the "Beijing 2026 Automotive Trade-In Subsidy Implementation Plan," which is about to launch two types of subsidies: "retirement renewal" and "replacement renewal." The application system will open at 10:00 on February 9, and eligible car purchase consumers can receive a maximum subsidy support of 20,000 yuan. Among them, "retirement and renewal" refers to retiring old vehicles and purchasing new ones. Consumers who purchase passenger NEVs are eligible for a subsidy equivalent to 12% of the new vehicle's selling price, with a maximum subsidy amount of 20,000 yuan; those who purchase fuel-powered passenger vehicles with an engine displacement of 2.0 liters or less are eligible for a subsidy equivalent to 10% of the new vehicle's selling price, with a maximum subsidy amount of 15,000 yuan. [Sichuan: Supports Auto Trade-In and Renewal with Maximum Subsidy of 15,000 Yuan] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Finance Department of Sichuan Province issued a notice on printing and distributing the "Policy Measures for Implementing Large-Scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade-In in Sichuan Province in 2026". The notice mentions support for auto trade-in and renewal. In 2026, individual consumers who transfer the registration of passenger vehicles under their own names through sale and purchase new passenger NEVs included in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "Catalog of NEV Models Eligible for Vehicle Purchase Tax Reduction and Exemption" or fuel-powered passenger vehicles with an engine displacement of 2.0 liters or less will receive a one-time subsidy. For those who trade in for new passenger NEVs meeting the aforementioned conditions, a subsidy equivalent to 8% of the new vehicle's selling price will be provided, with a maximum subsidy amount of 15,000 yuan; for those who trade in for fuel-powered passenger vehicles meeting the aforementioned conditions, a subsidy equivalent to 6% of the new vehicle's selling price will be provided, with a maximum subsidy amount of 13,000 yuan. Cui Yan, Deputy Director of Guolian Minsheng Research Institute and Chief Auto Analyst, stated that various regions have successively initiated trade-in subsidies for 2026, and coupled with the successive launch of new vehicles before auto shows after the Chinese New Year, auto sales are expected to stabilize and rebound. When discussing the sales situation in the auto market in January, she said that the overall end-use demand for autos in January was relatively mediocre, primarily due to the fact that local subsidies on the policy side had not yet been officially initiated, and at the same time, there were relatively few new car models launched by automakers on the supply side. "These two factors have now improved. Since mid-to-late January, local governments have successively initiated trade-in subsidies; on the supply side, after the Chinese New Year and before auto shows, automakers will successively launch new vehicles or initiate pre-launch promotional activities for new vehicles. It is expected that auto demand will stabilize and rebound after the Chinese New Year." According to CCTV News, in 2026, the Ministry of Commerce, in collaboration with various regions and relevant departments, will further advance the trade-in of consumer goods, focusing on areas such as automobiles to further optimize policy implementation and continuously release consumption potential. Business big data shows that as of February 5, 2026, there have been 335,000 applications for auto trade-in subsidies, driving new vehicle sales of 53.77 billion yuan, effectively promoting the development of the auto market and the recycling of resources, and facilitating industrial quality improvement, upgrading, and green transformation. In January, the average price of new vehicles involved in trade-ins exceeded 160,000 yuan, significantly higher than the previous year; nationwide, 659,000 retired vehicles were recovered, up 50.2% YoY. On February 9, the Ministry of Commerce held a symposium with automakers to study issues related to automobile distribution and consumption. Representatives from relevant automotive industry associations, research institutions, and enterprises attended the meeting. Comrade Sheng Qiuping, Vice Minister of Commerce, attended the symposium and engaged in discussions. Sheng Qiuping pointed out that China's ultra-large market has a solid foundation, the automotive consumption chain is long with great potential, and the continuous implementation of policies provides stable support, making it highly promising to expand automobile consumption across the entire chain. In 2026, the Ministry of Commerce will work with relevant departments to combine policy support with reform and innovation, integrate the efforts of existing measures and incremental policies, optimize the implementation of the automobile trade-in policy, carry out pilot reforms in automobile distribution and consumption, improve industry management systems, and take multiple measures to promote the expansion and quality improvement of automobile consumption. On February 12, as the Chinese New Year approached, the General Office of the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Trade-in of Consumer Goods During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday." It mentioned that all regions should strengthen the guarantee of subsidy funds for the trade-in of consumer goods during the Chinese New Year period, leverage the advantages of different channels, ensure the implementation of policies, and better meet consumer demand. In line with the Chinese New Year customs and to enhance the festive atmosphere, consumers are encouraged to go out for shopping. During the 9-day Chinese New Year holiday in 2026 (February 15–23), consumers will be fully supported to apply for subsidies for the trade-in of home appliances, digital and smart products through offline channels. Consumers who purchase new vehicles during the 9-day Chinese New Year holiday can apply for the automobile trade-in subsidy in accordance with policy requirements.

Metal materials are widely used in automotive components, and their price fluctuations significantly impact cost structures. According to SMM estimates, a typical NEV's cost breakdown is as follows: power battery (35%-40%), traction motor and motor controller (10%-20%), body/chassis/interior (30%), and other electronics (7%). This analysis focuses on the traction motor system, as SMM has extensively covered batteries elsewhere. Within the motor system (10%-20% of total vehicle cost), raw materials account for the largest share. Key metal inputs include rare earth-neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) magnets (30%-35%) , copper-enameled wires (15%) , and aluminum-structural components (20%) . The simultaneous surge in these metals from late 2025 to early 2026 has placed immense cost pressure on motor manufacturers and NEV OEMs . 1. Rare Earth Metals: Supply Squeeze and Demand Resilience Drive Prices Up ​ Rare earth prices, particularly for praseodymium-neodymium (PrNd) metal, have risen sharply. As of February 9, 2026, PrNd prices reached 975,000–985,000 RMB/ton , a year-to-date increase of 33.1% . This acceleration stems from tight supply ​ (limited upstream output, weak production activity, and reduced spot availability due to long-term contract deliveries) and robust demand ​ (steady overseas orders for magnetic materials and growing expectations for NEVs and e-bikes in 2026). These factors collectively pushed prices upward . Motor manufacturers face greater challenges than magnetic material suppliers. They must absorb not only soaring rare earth costs but also high copper prices. Compounding this, motor makers struggle to pass cost increases downstream . NEV OEMs, grappling with fierce market competition, resist price adjustments. Consequently, motor producers are caught between expanding losses ​ (if they continue production) and losing market share ​ (if they halt operations). Their weak bargaining power, due to proximity to concentrated downstream customers, exacerbates the strain . 2. Copper: Structural Supply-Demand Imbalance and Financial Factors ​ Copper prices rose sharply from 87,000 RMB/ton in late 2025 to 105,000 RMB/ton in early 2026 , a gain of over 20% , and have remained elevated. This rally was driven by: Supply-chain constraints : Production disruptions in major copper-producing countries (e.g., Chile, Peru), geopolitical tensions, and logistics bottlenecks limited short-term supply. Financial influences : Global liquidity conditions and inflation expectations attracted speculative capital, amplifying price volatility. Strong demand : Sustained optimism regarding data centers and cable demand further supported prices . The impact on motors is direct and significant. Copper, critical for stator and rotor windings, constitutes a substantial portion of motor raw material costs. The price surge adds hundreds of RMB to the cost per motor , translating to billions of RMB in additional annual expenses ​ for large-scale OEMs. This pressure cascades through the supply chain, squeezing margins for material suppliers, motor makers, and vehicle manufacturers. While some industrial motor firms have raised prices, NEV OEMs have so far absorbed the costs, further straining their profitability . 3. Aluminum: Tight Fundamentals Amid Energy Transition Demand ​ Aluminum prices climbed nearly 10% ​ from December 2025 to January 2026, primarily due to structural supply-demand tightness . Demand is bolstered by global energy transition trends (e.g., NEV bodies, battery trays, and e-drive casings) and solar PV growth. On the supply side, aluminum production—highly energy-intensive—faces pressure from elevated global power prices, leading to unstable operational rates. Financial investors' focus on "green metals" has also contributed to price gains . Although aluminum's cost sensitivity is lower than copper's, it is widely used in motor housings, end covers, and cooling systems. Price increases directly raise motor manufacturing expenses, costing hundreds of millions of RMB ​ for producers at million-unit annual scales and eroding margins for motor suppliers and OEMs . 4. Path Forward: Technology and Supply Chain Adaptation ​ The concurrent rise in rare earth, copper, and aluminum prices has created unprecedented cost pressure. Motor and vehicle manufacturers urgently seek cost reductions, but technological solutions (e.g., flat-wire motors , material recycling ) require time. Short-term strategies include long-term supply contracts ​ and futures hedging ​ to manage risks. Long-term success will hinge on material innovation ​ (e.g., reducing rare earth content, optimizing aluminum-for-copper substitution) and vertical supply chain integration ​ to navigate resource constraints . SMM advises industry players to closely monitor policy shifts and alternative technologies, adapting procurement and production strategies dynamically

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Magnesium Market Remained Stable Pre-Holiday, Prices Steady in Major Production Areas, Overseas Inquiries Increased but Trading Remained Sluggish] This week, the domestic magnesium industry chain market operated steadily overall. As the Chinese New Year holiday approached, market trading activity gradually slowed, with participants generally adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The dolomite market remained stable overall; the suspension of production by top-tier enterprises in the Wutai region led to tight supply of high-quality resources, but other major production areas promptly compensated for the gap, ensuring stable supply. Steady operations at primary magnesium enterprises in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia generated rigid demand, coupled with rising pre-holiday freight costs pushing up expenses, supporting relatively strong prices. The magnesium ingot market held steady, as smelters in major production areas saw eased funding pressure and maintained firm offers, while downstream pre-holiday stockpiling concluded, resulting in sluggish spot trades. In the Tianjin Port FOB market, overseas new orders were scarce, mostly for forward delivery, with the Chinese New Year holiday impacting the progress of actual transactions. Magnesium powder enterprises slowed their production pace after completing raw material stockpiling, as both domestic and international procurement neared completion, leading to a cooling trading atmosphere. Magnesium alloy enterprises operated normally, but downstream die-casting and end-user companies gradually began holiday breaks, resulting in subdued orders. The tight supply-demand balance supported firm processing fees.

On February 10, 2026, Aihydrogen Technology (Group) Co., Ltd. formally signed a cooperation agreement with the Chengkou County People's Government of Chongqing Municipality. The two parties will jointly develop an integrated "generation-grid-load-storage-hydrogen" comprehensive energy demonstration project. Supported by the core technology of magnesium-based solid-state hydrogen storage, the project aims to promote the deep integration of new energy and hydrogen energy industries, assist Chengkou in building a new highland for hydrogen energy demonstration in north-east Chongqing, and inject new "hydrogen" momentum into the optimization of China's energy structure. Zhang Jijun, Secretary of the Chengkou County Committee, Wang Chunmei, Deputy Secretary of the County Committee and County Mayor, and all members of the county leadership team attended the signing ceremony. Based on Chengkou County's resource endowment and strategic positioning, this cooperation project plans several core construction elements: utilizing Aihydrogen Technology's self-developed magnesium-based solid-state hydrogen storage technology to solve the challenges of hydrogen storage and transportation, enabling large-scale and safe development of hydrogen energy; planning the construction of an integrated super comprehensive energy station for oil, electricity, gas, and hydrogen, strengthening the energy supporting infrastructure for Chengkou's logistics hub connecting Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Chongqing; deploying various types of hydrogen energy vehicles, such as hydrogen logistics vehicles and sightseeing vehicles, across transportation, industrial, and livelihood scenarios to build a comprehensive green hydrogen application ecosystem; leveraging Chengkou's abundant wind, solar, and water resources to establish a green electricity-to-green hydrogen production base, forming a complete industrial chain of "green hydrogen production from green electricity - solid-state hydrogen storage - diversified hydrogen utilization". Chengkou County is located at the junction of three provinces/municipalities: Chongqing, Sichuan, and Shaanxi. It is an important strategic period in the Chengdu-Chongqing dual-city economic circle and the "Western Triangle" economic zone. The forest coverage rate reaches 72.8%, and reserves of new energy resources such as PV and wind power are abundant. Its solar resource endowment ranks among the top in Chongqing Municipality. The county is accelerating its efforts towards the construction goals of the "Daba Mountain New Energy Base" and the "Chongqing Green, Low-Carbon, Clean Energy Demonstration Zone". Simultaneously, Chengkou has been included as a key expansion area for the hydrogen refueling station industry in Chongqing's development plans, holding an important position in the construction of the "Chengdu-Chongqing Hydrogen Corridor" and the establishment of a western hydrogen energy hub. The launch of this project coincides with a strategic window period for Chongqing's advancement of its "16th Five-Year Plan" and enhancing the energy level of the dual-city economic circle, indicating broad development prospects. The solid-state hydrogen comprehensive energy station to be implemented in this project will break through the functional limitations of traditional hydrogen refueling stations. It will integrate green energy supply, emergency backup power, and community services, creating a benchmark for micro-energy hubs and providing safe and efficient hydrogen energy support for Chengkou's transportation and logistics, cultural tourism industry, and residents' daily lives. After completion, the project is expected to not only promote the upgrade of green infrastructure in Chengkou and support the development of the regional hydrogen energy transportation network but also enhance the local renewable energy consumption capacity, cultivate new quality productive forces in the energy sector, and provide replicable and scalable practical experience for the optimization and upgrade of the energy structure in north-east Chongqing. To ensure the high-quality implementation and operation of the project, Aihydrogen Technology is collaborating deeply with Zhonglai New Energy. Leveraging the latter's professional expertise in green power supply and combining it with its own leading magnesium-based solid-state hydrogen storage technology, the partnership aims to provide dual support through both technology and resources. Jolywood, CGN New Energy, SPIC, Air China Group, and other enterprises also participated in this signing event, collaborating with all parties to advance project construction and build a multi-party synergistic hydrogen energy industry development ecosystem. As a leading domestic magnesium-based solid-state hydrogen storage technology enterprise, Suzhou-based Ai Hydrogen Technology was established in 2019. Its independently developed magnesium-based solid-state hydrogen storage equipment technology can effectively address the pain points of hydrogen storage and transportation in the hydrogen energy industry, enabling large-scale hydrogen storage and transportation with high efficiency and low cost. The company has already secured Series A funding led by Anhui State-owned Capital, with its technology maturity and industrial implementation capabilities ranking among the top in the industry. The cooperation with Chengkou County Government is a key strategic move for Ai Hydrogen Technology in deploying its presence in the western hydrogen energy market. In the future, the enterprise will use this project as a starting point to deeply participate in the hydrogen energy industry development in Chongqing and the western region, steadily building a hydrogen energy service system covering northeastern Chongqing and radiating across the Chengdu-Chongqing area. Through technological empowerment, project demonstration, and multi-party collaboration, it will contribute professional expertise to building a modern energy system that is clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient.

SMM February 9: The tight supply situation in the raw material spot market continues to intensify, coupled with the holiday effect brought by the approaching Chinese New Year, the overall market is showing a pattern of "rising prices amid shrinking volume." Additionally, a major tungsten enterprise significantly raised its long-term contract prices, reigniting market bullish sentiment. On February 9, the average price of scheelite concentrate (≥65%) reached a record high of 680,500 yuan/metric ton, indicating a year-to-date increase of over 50%! The average price of APT (domestic) also rose to the historic milestone of 1 million yuan per metric ton on February 9, with a year-to-date increase of 49.25%! Tungsten enterprise significantly raised its long-term contract purchase prices for the first half of February Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd. of Chongyi's prices are as follows: 1. 55% scheelite concentrate: 670,000 yuan per metric ton, up 147,000 yuan per metric ton from the previous round; 2. 55% wolframite concentrate: 669,000 yuan per metric ton, up 147,000 yuan per metric ton from the previous round; 3. Ammonium paratungstate (standard grade zero): 970,000 yuan per metric ton, up 210,000 yuan per metric ton from the previous round. The Ganzhou Tungsten Industry Association's forecast prices for the tungsten market in February 2026 are: 55% scheelite concentrate at 670,000 yuan per metric ton, up 300,000 yuan per metric ton MoM; APT at 970,000 yuan per metric ton, up 300,000 yuan per metric ton MoM; medium-grain tungsten powder at 1,630 yuan per kg, up 480 yuan per kg MoM. (Prices are for reference only; assume commercial risks accordingly.) Furthermore, it is understood that some tungsten enterprises have suspended the publication of their long-term contract prices. Average Price of Ammonium Paratungstate (Domestic) Rises to 1 Million Yuan per Metric Ton, Up Over 49% Year-to-Date According to SMM price assessments, on February 9, the price range for scheelite concentrate (≥65%) was 680,000-681,000 yuan per metric ton, with an average price of 680,500 yuan per metric ton, up 1.19% from the previous trading day. Compared to the average price of 453,500 yuan per metric ton on December 31, 2025, this new high of 680,500 yuan per metric ton represents an increase of 227,000 yuan per metric ton year-to-date, a gain of 50.05%. Compared to the average price of 142,750 yuan per metric ton on December 31, 2024, the cumulative increase over more than a year reaches as high as 376.71% . On February 9, the price range for ammonium paratungstate (domestic) was 990,000-1,010,000 yuan per metric ton, with an average price of 1,000,000 yuan per metric ton. Compared to the average price of 670,000 yuan per metric ton on December 31, 2025, this average of 1,000,000 yuan per metric ton represents a year-to-date increase of 49.25%, rising sharply in sync with scheelite concentrate. Despite the continued sharp rise in tungsten prices, overall market trading activity has not kept pace recently, constrained mainly by multiple factors: First, with the Chinese New Year approaching, traders have become more cautious, focusing purchases on rigid demand, with only limited pre-holiday stockpiling and no large-scale concentrated stockpiling occurring. Second, high tungsten prices have led to both funding pressure and fear of high prices in the market, causing some downstream enterprises to postpone purchases and adopt a wait-and-see attitude. Third, the holiday effect is gradually becoming apparent, with some enterprises already entering a pre-holiday lull, leading to a general pullback in market trading frequency. The cemented carbide industry, a core demand sector for tungsten (accounting for 58% of total demand), is a typical example: affected by the soaring prices of raw materials like tungsten powder, production costs have increased significantly. Furthermore, tungsten materials like tungsten carbide account for over 80% of tool costs, forcing most cemented carbide enterprises to reduce procurement scale and maintain only production for rigid demand, further suppressing overall market trading activity. Outlook Looking ahead to the tungsten market outlook, in the short term, the tight spot supply situation on the raw material side is unlikely to ease quickly, and suppliers' reluctance to sell is expected to persist. The tungsten market is likely to maintain its strong upward trend. Key variables brought by the approaching Chinese New Year still require close attention: On one hand, market trading will gradually stagnate during the holiday period, and whether pre-holiday stockpiling demand concentrates will directly influence the short-term price movement pace. On the other hand, post-holiday enterprise work resumption progress, the recovery of raw material supply, and the strength of downstream demand release will determine whether tungsten prices can remain high. Additionally, international market price fluctuations, the signing of enterprise long-term contracts, industry policy direction, and the cost pass-through effect in the cemented carbide industry require continuous monitoring, while remaining vigilant against increased market risks from intensified price fluctuations in the high price range.

Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh, Ben Hoff and Jeremy Sellem highlight how Tether’s expanding Gold holdings have become a major force in the Gold market.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes] Polycrystalline silicon N-type recharging polysilicon quotes 48.5-58.8 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon quotes 49-51 yuan/kg, the polysilicon price index is 52.6 yuan/kg, polysilicon prices rise slightly, mainly due to some manufacturers being affected by cost delineation subsequently raising expectations slightly, mainstream prices remain stable. Approaching Chinese New Year, market transactions slow down, overall atmosphere shows no significant changes.

Pre-holiday, titanium concentrate prices softened amid weak downstream demand, while titanium dioxide saw inventory draws and price support from exports and pre-holiday restocking. Sponge titanium stabilized with export-led growth. Post-holiday demand will guide price trends across the chain.