During the Chinese New Year holiday, overseas tungsten prices surged past China. By Feb 20, Rotterdam APT averaged $1,800/mtu, up 13.56% WoW, while European scrap drill bits jumped 12.5% to €90/kg. Indian scrap followed, with alloy blade FOB hitting $110-115/kg. Post-holiday, domestic APT opened at ¥1.05 million/mt, with a major producer hiking long-term prices by ¥100,000/mt. Global supply tightness continues to drive synchronized upside across markets.

SMM, February 24: During the holiday period, trading in the domestic molybdenum market was scarce, and the market entered a closed state. The international molybdenum oxide price surged and then retreated. Before the holiday, stimulated by the sudden accident at a U.S. molybdenum enterprise and the earlier production cut news from Chilean copper-molybdenum mines, the international molybdenum oxide price briefly hit a high of 36 USD/lb Mo.

[SMM Analysis] Pre-holiday lithium ore market stabilized with a wait-and-see sentiment; post-holiday supply-demand tug-of-war intertwines with macroeconomic factors.

[SMM Tin Futures Review: Post-Holiday Work Resumption Pace Remains Slow, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Fluctuates at Highs]

[SMM Analysis] The lithium ore market stabilized and adopted a wait-and-see approach before the holiday, while after the holiday, the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers and macro factors intertwined.

During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, the electrolytic manganese market stabilized at the bottom with sluggish transactions. Before the holiday, the market’s downward momentum slowed after a cumulative 600 yuan/ton drop, with mainstream prices approaching the 17,000 yuan/ton mark, supported by steel mills’ final pre-holiday stockpiling. During the holiday, prices remained stable at around 17,300 yuan/ton with almost no transactions.

On the eve of the Spring Festival holiday, the lithium hydroxide market showed signs of a moderate price rebound. According to SMM data, on February 13, lithium hydroxide was quoted in a range of 130,000 to 145,000 RMB/ton, with an average price of 137,500 RMB/ton, an increase of 5,000 RMB/ton from February 6 (the previous Friday). As of February 13, the average price for February was provisionally reported at 139,575 RMB/ton. From the supply side, the overall lithium hydroxide supply remained tight in February. Although upstream smelters' willingness to release inventory slightly increased due to fluctuations in lithium carbonate futures prices, the overall sentiment to hold firm on prices remained strong, with quotes generally maintained at or above 140,000 RMB/ton. Pre-holiday macroeconomic policy expectations boosted sentiment in the lithium market. Coupled with the fact that few trading days remain in February, the pattern for the monthly average price has been largely set. Consequently, on the demand side, some material manufacturers increased their inquiries before the holiday to secure raw materials for post-holiday production. However, due to relatively sufficient earlier stockpiling and individual leading ternary material enterprises entering maintenance phases, the raw material shortage situation eased somewhat in the short term. Downstream companies showed limited acceptance of high raw material prices, with procurement intentions largely centered around the monthly average price. Overall, market transactions were still dominated by a tug-of-war between quoted prices and psychological price expectations, with actual trading volumes remaining quite limited. During the Spring Festival holiday, the market operated stably overall, with trading activity cooling down significantly. Affected by the hazardous chemical properties of lithium hydroxide, transportation came to a virtual standstill, and the market entered a seasonal quiet period. On the macro front, on the eve of the Spring Festival, the Chinese government announced the implementation of a zero-tariff policy for 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic relations, effective May 1st. It also promotes the signing of agreements on economic partnership for common development to expand market access for African products. This move will further deepen China-Africa economic and trade cooperation. In the long term, it is expected to broaden import channels for resources, including critical minerals, providing more solid resource support for China's new energy industry chain (such as battery raw materials). Meanwhile, significant movements also occurred in the international market. The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling that certain tariff policies from the Trump administration were illegal drove a broad uptick in overseas markets. It is expected that this trend will continue to reinforce domestic market confidence after the holiday. However, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting revealed significant divergence among policymakers regarding the future path of interest rates, which could exacerbate global capital market volatility and introduce uncertainty for the post-holiday market. Looking ahead to the post-holiday market: On the supply side, due to fewer production days and planned maintenance at some lithium salt plants, February's lithium hydroxide output is expected to decrease by more than 10% compared to January. On the demand side, as material manufacturers gradually resume production after the holiday, raw material procurement demand is expected to be gradually released, and market trading activity may pick up. However, the pace of the demand recovery still faces certain variables. On one hand, changes in the order structure of downstream battery cell manufacturers and the progress of new production line integration may affect the actual raw material procurement rhythm of material manufacturers. On the other hand, the price trends of upstream lithium ore and lithium carbonate, as well as the upcoming second-quarter contract negotiations, will also disturb the cost transmission and market expectations for lithium hydroxide, thereby exacerbating market uncertainty. Overall, the current lithium hydroxide market is in a phase of stabilizing before the holiday and gathering momentum afterward. The tug-of-war between supply and demand intensifies, intertwined with the influence of macroeconomic policies and the external environment. In the short term, prices are expected to remain volatile and range-bound. Subsequent trends will require close attention to downstream production start-up rates and upstream cost changes.

I. Cobalt Price Review During Chinese New Year During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15 to February 23), domestic refined cobalt electronic night session trading saw prices rebound slightly from previous lows. The spot market was relatively sluggish due to logistics suspensions. Overseas prices showed divergence: the low end of standard-grade refined cobalt remained stable, while the high end increased by $0.1/lb; both low and high ends of alloy-grade refined cobalt rose by $0.3/lb and $0.4/lb, respectively. CIF China cobalt hydroxide prices remained stable. II. Market Dynamics Cuba's fuel shortage will force Sherritt to suspend its nickel-cobalt operations: Due to ongoing tight fuel supply in Cuba, Sherritt International Corp. plans to suspend mining and processing operations at its Moa nickel-cobalt joint project and has already scaled down operations ahead of schedule, with suspension expected in the short term. Planned maintenance will be conducted during the shutdown. Failure to secure fuel deliveries is the direct cause of the suspension; the company is communicating with relevant parties and evaluating alternative input sources. The project, in partnership with state-owned General Nickel Company SA, typically ships semi-finished products to a refinery in Alberta, Canada, which has an integrated capacity of approximately 38,200 mt. However, this production accounts for a relatively small share of global nickel supply, so the impact on the international market is limited, though it will affect the company's finances and Cuba's economy. Meanwhile, Energas SA, an energy joint venture in which Sherritt holds a one-third stake, continues normal operations, supplying natural gas for power generation to Cuba's power grid, unaffected by this incident. Overall, the suspension reflects the direct constraints of Cuba's long-term economic and energy crisis on industrial projects. Sumitomo's Madagascar nickel-cobalt project shuts down due to cyclone damage: Japan's Sumitomo Corporation stated on February 18 that its Ambatovy nickel-cobalt project in Madagascar was shut down after Tropical Cyclone Ghezani hit the island last week, causing facility damage. Operations were suspended immediately once signs of the cyclone became apparent, with safety as the top priority, the company said in a statement. It added that a detailed assessment of the damage, including equipment conditions and the impact on revenue, is currently underway. Sumitomo will work to identify the extent of the losses as soon as possible and collaborate with relevant parties to implement appropriate recovery and reconstruction measures, the statement added. A company spokesperson said the timeline for restarting operations is undetermined and assessing the extent of the damage is expected to take several weeks. Ambatovy is owned by Sumitomo, with state-owned Korea Mine Rehabilitation and Mineral Resources Corp (KOMIR) producing approximately 28,000 mt of nickel and about 2,500 mt of cobalt in 2024. III. Post-Holiday Outlook Supply side, cobalt raw materials from the DRC are still unable to be replenished in the short term, and enterprises are facing pressure from raw material shortages. Coupled with production halts at some enterprises during the Chinese New Year holiday, production plans have been reduced. Refined cobalt production in February is expected to remain low, and the overall supply of cobalt salts is projected to decline slightly. Demand side, prior to the Chinese New Year, some downstream ternary cathode precursor enterprises showed increased purchase willingness and active inquiries due to concerns about rising cobalt sulphate prices after the holiday. However, as logistics were about to halt at that time, actual transactions were relatively limited. With the resumption of logistics after the holiday and downstream enterprises gradually resuming production and restocking, demand is expected to be gradually released. Looking ahead, against the backdrop of continued support from raw material costs, phased tightening of supply, and phased recovery in demand, refined cobalt and cobalt salt prices are expected to resume an upward trend.

After the Chinese New Year holiday, the first fundamental indicator to watch post-holiday is undoubtedly inventory! SMM compiles the latest inventory data from three markets (LME, COMEX, SHFE) and the evolving logic for the future outlook.

[Silicon Metal and Downstream Sectors See Widespread Production Cuts in February; Post-Chinese New Year Recovery Under Scrutiny] Supply and demand both contracted in February, with the balance expected to be tight or show slight destocking. The Chinese New Year holiday is about to end, and post-holiday market activity is primarily characterized by tentative inquiries. Attention is focused on the pace of production resumption at major plants after the holiday, as well as changes in capital sentiment.