Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,965/mt, fluctuating downward during the Asian session; it dipped to $1,948.5/mt upon entering the European session, but then rose due to a weakening US dollar index, touching a high of $1,976.5/mt before finally settling at $1,974.5/mt. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,665 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,560 yuan/mt early in the session, then rebounded as bears reduced positions, reaching a high of 16,680 yuan/mt before finally settling at 16,665 yuan/mt, up 0.48%, forming a doji star. On the macro front: As markets awaited a series of US economic data, a weaker US dollar made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to overseas buyers; spot gold extended gains. The White House's Hassett predicted worsening employment: AI boosts productivity, reduces labor demand. Alphabet planned to raise about $15 billion by issuing US dollar bonds. China's Ministry of Commerce held a symposium with automakers: Multiple measures to promote the expansion and quality improvement of auto consumption. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing. Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security provided administrative guidance on employment to leading platform companies and courier firms. Three departments including the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on tax incentives for re-exported cross-border e-commerce goods. : SHFE lead stopped falling and stabilized, but as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, logistics vehicles halted in some regions, leading to reduced shipments and quotations from suppliers. Only some cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In the secondary lead sector, more smelters were on holiday and reluctant to sell at low prices, with most enterprises suspending quotations; a few secondary refined lead offers were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises generally entered the year-end wrap-up phase, with minimal inquiries, resulting in thin trading in the spot market. Inventory: On February 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 100 mt to 232,750 mt. As of February 9, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions rose to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: With previously in-transit lead ingots by rail concentratedly arriving at warehouses, social inventory of lead ingots increased significantly, mainly reflected in Jiangsu and Zhejiang region warehouses. Last week, lead prices fell, prompting lead-acid battery enterprises to conduct relatively concentrated stockpiling of lead ingots, leading to a noticeable decline in lead smelters' in-factory inventory. This week being the last before the Chinese New Year, the final batch of lead-acid battery enterprises will enter the holiday state, further weakening lead consumption. Meanwhile, with the start of the Spring Festival travel season, migrant workers have returned to their hometowns, and the number of vehicles in operation has gradually decreased. Currently, some regions no longer support road transportation. It is expected that the growth momentum of social inventory for lead ingots will slow down, and the inventory buildup of lead ingots is anticipated to be more reflected in the smelters' plant inventories. Overall, lead prices are in the doldrums ahead of the holiday. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

[Market Daily: Futures Rise but Market Structure Unchanged, High-Grade NPI Price Rises Slightly] February 11 (SMM) - The average price of 10-12% high-grade NPI was 1,043 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), up 2 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous working day.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2603 contract opened at 90,360 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, copper prices tested a low of 90,110 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward, approaching a high of 91,020 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 90,790 yuan/mt, up 0.42%. Open interest fell to 4,485 lots, down 388 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume dropped to 3,022 lots, down 3,104 lots from the previous session. On the macro front, Trump called on the US Fed to cut interest rates, but officials stated that inflation remains relatively high and there is no urgent need for rate cuts. US December retail sales data fell short of expectations, and copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend. On the fundamentals side, imported supply continued to arrive, leading to looser availability of spot material in the market. Demand side, weakened further as the holiday approached, with downstream enterprises having largely completed pre-holiday stockpiling, resulting in low purchase willingness at this stage. The market showed a clear pattern of weak supply and demand. The most-traded SHFE copper 2603 contract settled at 102,180 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2603 contract price of 90,790 yuan/mt, its after-tax price is 102,593 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2603 contract and BC copper was -413, maintaining an inverted spread which widened compared to the previous day.

Silver prices continued their volatile consolidation trend today. As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has continued to weaken, and the spread in spot market quotations has widened. In Shanghai, suppliers achieved limited rigid-demand transactions at a TD premium of 1,800-2,000 yuan/kg, but transactions at higher premiums proved relatively difficult. Some suppliers expressed concerns about pre-holiday consumption recovery and the spot-futures price spread, driven by risk aversion, they lowered the TD premium to 1,000-1,500 yuan/kg for inventory clearance ahead of the holiday. Consumption in the Shenzhen market has almost vanished, with some traders making small purchases in Shenzhen and transporting the goods to the Shanghai market to capitalize on the price difference. Market wait-and-see sentiment is strong; most downstream enterprises have completed their stockpiling and are preparing for the holiday, resulting in scarce actual purchases and thin trading.

SMM February 11: According to official information, Nandan County South Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. is expected to sell indium ingots today, specifications: 99.995%; execution standard: YS/T257-2009, approximately 1,000 kg. The quoted price is the tax-included price (13% tax rate) for delivery on the truck at the factory of Nandan County South Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. Delivery location: warehouse of Nandan County South Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd., the seller is responsible for loading and weighing, and the freight is borne by the buyer. The deadline for this quotation is 16:00 on February 12, 2026, and it will be invalid after expiration. Quotation method: direct quotation on the sales platform. If the bidding price deviates significantly from the market transaction price, Nandan County South Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. has the right to cancel this bidding. Business contacts: Bu Yongyang 18607782963, Cen Zhanming 18607830420

SMM reported on February 11: According to official news from Nandan Nanfang Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd., a public tender for 100 mt of bismuth ingots, specification: 99.99%; execution standard: GB/T915-2010, started today. The settlement method required payment before delivery: a 10% deposit of the total value was to be prepaid within two working days after winning the bid, and the balance was to be paid in full within two working days after signing the contract. Business contacts: Bu Yongyang 18607782963, Cen Zhanming 18607830420. The tender currently required direct quotation on the platform. Users could search for the "Nanfang Nonferrous Metals Group" official account on WeChat, log in to the Nanfang Nonferrous Bulk Materials Sales Platform → User Login → to submit a quote. The bidding deadline was 16:00 on February 12, 2026. This bidding sale did not set a reserve price. If the bidding price deviated significantly from market transactions, Nandan Nanfang Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. reserved the right to cancel the bidding. This tender could test the trading activity of bismuth ingots in the market, and SMM would follow up with reports.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes] Polycrystalline silicon N-type recharging polysilicon quotes 48.5-58.8 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon quotes 49-51 yuan/kg, the polysilicon price index is 52.6 yuan/kg, polysilicon prices rise slightly, mainly due to some manufacturers being affected by cost delineation subsequently raising expectations slightly, mainstream prices remain stable. Approaching Chinese New Year, market transactions slow down, overall atmosphere shows no significant changes.

SMM February 11: Today, spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract were at a discount of 120 yuan/mt to 0 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 60 yuan/mt, an increase of 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/mt to 160 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 180 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 101,175 yuan/mt, down 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,105 yuan/mt, down 335 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased for three consecutive days, mainly due to reduced consumption. Although downstream users were already in a semi-holiday state, suppliers held prices firm with strong sentiment, pushing premiums higher; however, actual transactions were sluggish. Today, the procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.04, down 0.2 from the previous trading day, while the shipment sentiment was 3.21, up 0.16 (historical data can be queried in the database). As of 11:00, high-quality copper against the front-month contract was quoted at 0 yuan/mt, standard-quality copper at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, and SX-EW copper at a discount of 180 yuan/mt. Overall, suppliers actively held prices firm for shipments, but actual transactions were quiet, and the market is expected to become more sluggish in the next two days.

Commodity markets have experienced extreme fluctuations in recent weeks – but not all analysts see this as a shift in sentiment.

[SS Futures Daily Review] Indonesian Nickel Ore News Boosts SS Back Above 14,000 Yuan/mt, Stainless Steel Spot Market Remains Stable During Holiday SMM, February 11 — SS futures showed a strong upward trend. Last night, the 2026 Indonesian nickel ore approval quota was officially announced, driving SHFE nickel and stainless steel futures higher; during the day, SS futures once again climbed above 14,000 yuan/mt, finally closing at 14,145 yuan/mt. On the spot market side, despite the strong performance of SS futures, most spot trading was suspended as traders and downstream enterprises were largely on holiday, resulting in minimal actual transactions and stable prices. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and probed higher. At 10:30 am, SS2604 was quoted at 14,010 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 160-360 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for 201/2B cold-rolled coil in Wuxi was reported at 8,500 yuan/mt; the average price for 304/2B cold-rolled mill-edge coil was 14,100 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 14,050 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price for 316L/2B cold-rolled coil in Wuxi was 26,600 yuan/mt, and 26,600 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price for 316L/NO.1 hot-rolled coil in Wuxi was reported at 25,750 yuan/mt; the price for 430/2B cold-rolled coil was 7,800 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, repeated fluctuations in macro sentiment, combined with a significant pullback in precious metals prices, dragged down nonferrous metals futures overall, with stainless steel futures also...