[smm cast aluminum alloy morning comment: aluminum scrap prices rise but with regional divergence market supply increases] overnight, the 2604 contract for aluminum alloy opened higher and retreated after a rapid rise. it touched a high of 23,305 yuan/mt at the opening and then fluctuated downward, reaching a low of 22,940 yuan/mt, before rebounding slightly towards the close. it finally closed at 230,450 yuan/mt, down 135 yuan/mt from the previous close, a decline of 0.58%. the futures showed a move downwards after a higher opening, indicating a weakening of short-term bullish momentum. trading volume remained low, and open interest decreased slightly, suggesting a cautious approach to trading.

[smm silicon-based pv morning meeting summary: upstream silicon market prices mostly stable over the weekend downstream module quotes show an upward trend] over the weekend, n-type recharging polysilicon quotes were 48-56 yuan/kg, the n-type polysilicon price index was 51.4 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon quotes were 49-51 yuan/kg. polysilicon prices remained temporarily stable over the weekend. previously, the market sentiment was bearish, with limited transactions this weekend. the market is focusing on order signing conditions in early march, as well as the trend of silver prices amid international situations.

Recycling Industry Events This Week (December. 29-31)

According to SMM data, in the first week after the holiday, the national social inventory of hot-rolled coil in 86 warehouses (large sample) surveyed by SMM was 5.3775 million mt, up 1.1404 million mt WoW, up 26.92% WoW, and up 31.57% YoY on a lunar calendar basis. In the first week after the holiday, the national social inventory accumulated significantly. By region, the markets with larger accumulations were south China, east China, and north China.

This month, Rio Tinto stated during its earnings conference call that with all its owned projects progressing as planned, the company's lithium production capacity is expected to reach 200,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) annually by 2028. The increase will primarily stem from the Fenix project, the expansion of Sal de Vida, and the commissioning of the Rincon and Nemaska projects. By that time, total output will exceed three times the 57,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate production achieved in 2025. Rio Tinto previously announced its entry into the ranks of major lithium producers upon acquiring Arcadium, with plans to increase capacity to over 200,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) annually by 2028. The company has now confirmed its focus on achieving this target, positioning lithium as a “significant” component within its business structure. Expansion Projects: The mechanical portion of the 10,000-ton-per-year expansion at Fenix, one of the Argentine salt lake projects, has been completed, with commissioning progress reaching 60%. The mechanical vapor recompression unit has been put into operation to support the planned first production run. The first production from the expanded capacity remains on track to commence in the second half of 2026. At the new Sal de Vida project in Argentina, with an annual capacity of 15,000 metric tons, the mechanical works have been completed and commissioning is 40% complete. Production is expected to commence in the second half of 2026, projected to increase Rio Tinto's lithium output to 61,000–64,000 metric tons LCE in 2026. Regarding future projects: The Rincon project in Argentina, with an annual capacity of 60,000 metric tons, is progressing smoothly with its initial 3,000-metric-ton-per-year plant. It is expected to reach full capacity by year-end. The 57,000-metric-ton expansion plant has completed commissioning and is currently being started up, with first production planned for 2028. It will reach full production after a three-year ramp-up period. The mine has an estimated 40-year lifespan, with operating costs positioned in the top quartile of the industry cost curve. The Nemaska project in Canada features an integrated lithium hydroxide production line with a designed capacity of 28,000 metric tons per year. The mine's engineering design is complete, with construction progress at 60%. The lithium hydroxide refinery is scheduled to commence commissioning in 2026 and achieve first production in 2028. For the Whabouchi and Galaxy mines, strategic business and capital discipline reviews are underway with Canadian partners to determine the development of one of these mines. A decision is expected in the first half of 2026 to secure an integrated spodumene supply solution for the lithium hydroxide plant by 2028. In Chile, Rio Tinto anticipates closing agreements signed with state-owned mining companies Codelco and Enami in the first half of 2026. Rio Tinto has been selected as the private partner to develop Chile's two largest undeveloped lithium resources, with projects advancing upon agreement completion.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: SHFE Aluminum Fluctuates at Highs, Post-Holiday Consumption Recovery Remains Slow] Spot side, A00 aluminum price rebounded by 140 yuan/mt to 23,520 yuan/mt compared with the previous trading day, while SMM ADC12 price rose slightly by 50 yuan/mt to 23,800 yuan/mt. Boosted by the stronger futures, market sentiment improved slightly. However, secondary aluminum enterprises remained generally cautious about following the upward trend, with most maintaining stable quotations or raising prices by no more than 100 yuan/mt. Post-holiday downstream consumption recovery pace was relatively slow, with downstream users making just-in-time procurement, and some enterprises still focusing on digesting inventories. Overall market transaction atmosphere was sluggish. In the short term, ADC12 price is likely to continue moving sideways in the initial post-holiday period. For the medium term, the trend still requires close monitoring of the supply-demand matching situation as production resumptions are gradually implemented, as well as the impact of primary aluminum price movements on aluminum scrap costs.

During the Chinese New Year holiday, overseas precious metal prices rose boosted by macro risk-aversion sentiment. On the first trading day after the holiday, domestic silver prices followed the upward trend, with spot market supply remaining relatively tight. In Shanghai, suppliers offered TD at a premium of 1,800–2,000 yuan/kg, while some smelters quoted TD at a premium of 1,800 yuan/kg or a premium of 1,000 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2604 contract. Today, market quotes varied significantly. Industrial bulk demand generally adopted a wait-and-see approach and traded on-demand, while a few small enterprises or silver product wholesalers with demand below 100 kg offered TD at 2,000–3,000 yuan/kg to complete urgent orders.

SMM, February 24: During the holiday period, trading in the domestic molybdenum market was scarce, and the market entered a closed state. The international molybdenum oxide price surged and then retreated. Before the holiday, stimulated by the sudden accident at a U.S. molybdenum enterprise and the earlier production cut news from Chilean copper-molybdenum mines, the international molybdenum oxide price briefly hit a high of 36 USD/lb Mo.

Based on data from SMM, China's high-carbon ferrochrome production slightly declined in July 2024 to 776,000 metric tons (mt), a month-over-month (MoM) decrease of 25,000 mt or 3.12%, but it increased year-over-year (YoY) by 174,500 mt or 29.01%. Inner Mongolia's contribution was 516,000 mt, down 21,100 mt MoM (3.93% decrease), while Guizhou produced 37,000 mt, registering a 14.94% MoM decline. Despite high bidding prices for high-carbon ferrochrome from stainless steel mills in July, steel mills significantly reduced their procurement outside long-term contracts, leading to a sluggish retail market and a drop in retail ferrochrome prices. The high cost of chrome ore continued to squeeze manufacturers' profit margins, diminishing production enthusiasm. Additionally, equipment maintenance by some manufacturers contributed to the decline in high-carbon ferrochrome production in July

SMM Cobalt and Lithium Morning Meeting Minutes: At the beginning of the week, the price of cobalt chloride remained temporarily stable. Supply side, smelters faced tight raw material inventory, with most manufacturers refusing to sell at low prices, showing a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Demand side, although the overall market activity remained low, some manufacturers maintained a certain level of purchasing demand for cobalt chloride to ensure the stable operation of production lines, keeping the transaction price stable at a high level. This week, suppliers are expected to have a strong sentiment of holding back sales, and the price of cobalt chloride is likely to rise further.