Dalian iron ore futures gapped higher at the open today, stayed firm in the morning session, and were in the doldrums in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 811.5 yuan/mt, up 2.33% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, spot prices rose by 5-10 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were average in offering activity, while steel mills restocked on demand, with limited inquiries. Overall transactions in the spot market were sluggish. The SMM survey showed that total iron ore inventory at 35 ports nationwide reached 155.41 million mt this week, an increase of 610,000 mt WoW, with the pace of inventory buildup improving somewhat. Meanwhile, daily average port pick-up volume reached 2.53 million mt, down 20,000 mt from the previous period. Looking ahead, the moderating pace of iron ore inventory buildup indicated that demand had begun to recover. At the same time, due to structural adjustments on the supply side, rigid demand for iron ore shifted in a concentrated manner toward certain varieties, causing localized supply deficits and thereby forming strong bottom support. Coupled with still-robust bullish sentiment, iron ore prices are expected to hold up well in the short term, as upside pressure has eased somewhat while downside support remains strong.

[Environmental Protection Measures in Northern China Weighed, Overall Trading Was Average This Week]: Spot premiums in Tianjin were flat WoW this week. As of this Friday, in China, standard domestic brands were quoted at discounts of around 50-100 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract, high-priced brands at discounts of around 30-60 yuan/mt against the 2604 contract, and Tianjin was quoted at a premium of around 10 yuan/mt against Shanghai.

[SMM Analysis: Weak End-User Demand but Firm Costs, High-Grade NPI Prices Rose Steadily] The average SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI price rose 2.2 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,089.9 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price increased $0.39/nickel unit WoW to $138.93/nickel unit. This week, mainstream steel mills released tender prices, and the market came under brief pressure.

Stainless steel spot prices were stable this week, but production costs rose somewhat, further squeezing stainless steel mills’ profit margins. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on raw material prices on the day, the full-cost profit margin was -1.27% this week; calculated based on raw material inventory costs, it reached 2.21%. Nickel raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices edged up further this week. Although a major stainless steel mill recently set relatively low procurement tender prices for high-grade NPI, strong nickel ore prices continued to provide solid cost support for NPI, traders showed strong willingness to hold prices firm, and the overall market remained bullish. Coupled with high stainless steel production schedules in March, downstream stainless steel mills maintained strong raw material demand, and the psychological price level also moved up gradually. In the short term, high-grade NPI prices were more likely to rise than fall. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with a grade of 10-12% rose by 6.5 yuan per nickel unit to 1,094.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market side, stainless steel scrap prices strengthened this week, mainly due to the linkage with furnace charge, economic advantages, and demand support. Firm high-grade NPI and high-carbon ferrochrome prices boosted steel scrap prices higher. Stainless steel production schedules are expected to increase in March, boosting procurement demand. Stainless steel scrap still had an economic advantage over high-grade NPI, supporting bullish sentiment. However, downstream demand recovery remained limited, stainless steel social inventory stayed high, and finished product prices lacked momentum for further gains, constraining upside room for steel scrap prices. Overall, the market showed a pattern of “rising prices, raw material support, and demand under pressure,” and prices are expected to remain generally stable with slight rise going forward. As of this Friday, the price of 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 600 yuan/mt to around 10,250 yuan/mt. Chrome raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices rose slightly this week. Overseas market chrome ore futures prices continued to climb, and China chrome ore spot quotations moved up in tandem. Ferrochrome smelting costs increased, ferrochrome producers’ profits narrowed significantly, and with retail spot supply of high-carbon ferrochrome remaining tight and stainless steel production schedules staying high in March, ferrochrome prices were supported to edge up further. As of this Friday, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia rose 50 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW to 8,650 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, next Monday will be the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2603 contract. According to the SMM #1 copper cathode price assessment methodology, SMM always quotes against the front-month contract. The contango price spread between futures contracts narrowed slightly, and suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouses weakened somewhat, marginally loosening support for spot premiums. Meanwhile, import losses have narrowed substantially, and there are signs that the import window is about to open. If the window opens, it will bring in cargo from outside China, increasing pressure on spot supply in China and creating potential downward pressure on premiums. On the demand side, downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, providing some support for prices, but intraday, some downstream enterprises were seen to have limited acceptance of spot cargo with high premiums, with procurement turning more cautious. On the supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargo continued to arrive, while social inventory remained high. As SMM always quotes against the front-month contract, the shift in the price spread between futures contracts is expected to result in high premiums against the front-month contract, though this is expected to be corrected on the second trading day. Overall, under the dominance of delivery logic, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to remain at elevated levels next Monday.

According to SMM data, during the week of March 9–13, 2026 , China’s stainless steel market moved into the middle phase of the traditional peak-demand season known as “Golden March,” while trading in the most-active stainless steel futures contract rolled smoothly into SS2605 . Against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and a visible turn in inventory trends, stainless steel futures continued to trade at relatively elevated levels. As of 10:15 a.m. on March 13 , the contract stood at RMB 14,275/mt (about USD 2,068/mt) , up RMB 40/mt (about USD 5.80/mt) from the previous Friday’s close. This week’s key market tension remained the mismatch between rising supply and only a modest recovery in demand. Although fundamentals have yet to show strong upward momentum, geopolitical risk premiums and persistently high raw material costs have kept downside pressure limited, preventing a broader correction from taking shape. Macro backdrop: geopolitics abroad, policy support in China At the macro level, external black swan risks and policy support in China have created a clear contrast. Iran reiterated that it would maintain the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing safe-haven demand and pushing the US dollar index higher. That, in turn, capped upside in dollar-denominated base metals. Meanwhile, US core CPI rose 2.5% year on year in February , in line with expectations, easing immediate inflation concerns. Even so, the market remains wary of a potential surge in energy prices in March. In China, the Ministry of Finance has signaled that fiscal policy in 2026 will remain more proactive, with RMB 100 billion (about USD 14.49 billion) allocated to strengthen coordination between fiscal and financial policy, particularly in support of household consumption and private-sector investment. That measured policy support has helped improve expectations for a broader recovery in commodity demand. Inventory draw emerges, but spot demand remains cautious On the fundamentals side, the stainless market has finally reached a meaningful inflection point in destocking, although spot trading still appears underwhelming. The latest SMM data shows that social inventories fell to 998,100 mt this week from 1,016,400 mt the previous week, a decline of 18,300 mt , taking inventories back below the psychologically important 1 million mt threshold. As downstream processing plants gradually resumed operations, demand continued to recover. However, while spot transactions improved from earlier levels, trading activity still fell short of the strength typically associated with the seasonal peak. End-users have largely remained focused on buying only what they need, with little appetite for active restocking. At present, the supply increase resulting from concentrated mill restarts in March is meeting only a slow improvement in end-use demand. That still-fragile recovery continues to limit market confidence in any stronger upside breakout during the peak season. Raw material costs remain the key floor Raw material costs continued to trend higher and remain the market’s main source of downside support. With geopolitical tensions lingering and tight ore supply from Indonesia continuing to feed through the market, upstream quotations kept rising. As of March 13 , high-grade NPI moved up further to RMB 1,094.5 per nickel unit (about USD 158.61 per nickel unit) , up RMB 6.5 (about USD 0.94) from a week earlier. High-carbon ferrochrome also climbed to RMB 8,650 per 50-basis mt (about USD 1,253.50 per 50-basis mt) . As raw material prices continue to move higher, stainless mills’ production cost floors are also rising. Although downstream buyers remain resistant to expensive material, room for mills to offer discounts has narrowed sharply under the pressure of high costs and, in some cases, negative margins. As a result, cost support for both futures and spot prices has become increasingly firm. Outlook: high-level consolidation likely to continue Overall, the stainless steel market is now caught in a complex tug-of-war defined by rising supply, only a weak recovery in demand, firm cost support, and a clear turn in inventories. The safe-haven and inflation-hedging logic stemming from the Strait of Hormuz crisis, together with NPI prices approaching the 1,100 threshold, has effectively limited downside in the futures market. At the same time, subdued spot order activity has capped upside momentum. Looking ahead to next week, the market will be watching closely to see whether the destocking trend can continue. The main focus will shift to actual arrivals following mill restarts and the pace at which downstream orders improve. In the near term, the most-active stainless steel futures contract is expected to remain rangebound at relatively high levels. Market participants are advised to closely monitor geopolitical developments and nickel ore price movements, as both could trigger sudden directional swings. Written by: Bruce Chew | bruce.chew@smm.cn +601167087088

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Struggled to Break Out of Rangebound Trading, Spot Market Held Prices Steady While Actively Shipping SMM News, March 13: SS futures remained in the doldrums. However, after opening higher in the night session, SS fluctuated downward, with the pace of pullback accelerating further in the afternoon, and closed at 14,190 yuan/mt. In the spot market, affected by fluctuations in futures, quotations were largely stable, with limited changes during the week. Although the recovery in downstream demand and cargo pick-up of previous orders provided support, and stainless steel social inventory stopped rising and pulled back this week, market expectations remained mediocre, with merchants mainly holding prices steady while actively making shipments. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated stronger. As of 10:15 a.m., SS2605 stood at 14,275 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 245-445 yuan/mt. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi were all basically stable; for cold-rolled trimmed 304/2B coils, the average prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were basically stable; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were basically stable; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted basically stable in Wuxi; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were basically stable. Entering the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden March and Silver April,” the stainless steel market ushered in a window for demand recovery, with downstream end-users gradually recovering and inquiry and purchase activity having picked up notably recently. However, stainless steel spot prices overall remained basically stable, with no obvious fluctuations. End-user procurement mainly followed rigid demand, and a full-scale peak-season boom had yet to emerge, while wait-and-see sentiment still lingered in the market. On the futures side, affected by Yi...

[SMM Titanium Weekly Review: Titanium Dioxide Showed Signs of Recovery; Diverging Strength Across the Titanium Industry Chain Market This Week] This week, the titanium industry chain in China showed pronounced structural divergence, with the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers across upstream and downstream segments intensifying and cost pass-through facing obstacles. Overall, the sector was characterized by a combination of weak recovery and localized strong support. Trading in upstream titanium ore and titanium slag was sluggish. Downstream processing enterprises tightly controlled costs, with procurement consistently maintained at a pace driven by rigid demand. Coupled with inventory at high levels across the industry, the raw material end remained under pressure, enterprises’ willingness to operate stayed weak, capacity release was constrained, and the supply-demand imbalance continued to stand out. In the midstream titanium dioxide segment, pressure from elevated costs of raw materials and energy sharply increased production-side strain. Enterprises held prices firm and showed a strong willingness to sell, and while domestic trade demand did not see a noticeable increase in volume—relying only on rigid-demand support—overseas markets still demonstrated a certain degree of resilience, leaving the overall market running relatively strong. The downstream sponge titanium and titanium products segments performed impressively: sponge titanium inventories remained low, and, together with robust downstream restocking demand, top-tier enterprises proactively adjusted prices, with enterprises showing strong confidence in holding prices firm. The titanium products market saw stable supply and demand: the supply-side operating rate was steady, while demand-side differentiation was evident. Civilian applications were mainly driven by rigid-demand restocking, while orders in high-end fields such as aerospace and military industries were steady. The market recovered steadily, and differences in the pace across segments of the industry chain also set the tone for subsequent market dynamics.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Alloy Prices Continued to Hover at Highs, While Market Demand Was Significantly Suppressed] This week, secondary aluminum alloy prices continued to rise, but the pace of demand follow-up was relatively slow. In the short term, raw material costs remained at high levels, providing strong support for ADC12 prices; however, if prices continue to rise, the suppressive effect of high prices on demand will become increasingly evident. Meanwhile, as operating rates gradually recover, there are also expectations of a mild increase on the supply side. ADC12 prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term. Going forward, it is recommended to focus on the pace of downstream order release, the pressure on the market from the supply recovery process, and the impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices.

Platinum prices remained in the doldrums today. In early trading, the most-traded PT2606 platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 562.45 yuan/g, down 1.42. In the spot market, spot platinum was quoted at a discount of 10-12 yuan/g against PT2606, or at a premium of 2-4 yuan/g against the SGE sell-1 price. Spot discounts were basically flat from the previous trading day. As for spot transactions, cargo holders and traders actively offered quotes. Some traders said supply in the market was currently ample, while downstream clients had relatively sufficient inventory and mainly stayed on the sidelines. Coupled with a clear cooling in investment demand, it was extremely difficult to hold prices firm and conclude deals, and overall trading in the spot market was subdued.