[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Bullish and Bearish Factors Coexisted in Domestic and Overseas Markets; Lead Prices Were Expected to Remain Consolidated] US Treasury Secretary Bessent: A 15% global tariff might be implemented this week, pledged to safeguard the Persian Gulf, and hinted that more measures were forthcoming. Recently, lead-acid battery enterprises in the domestic market basically resumed production, and the overall operating rate in March rebounded sharply from February…

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Coexistence of Energy Supply Pressure and Lead Ingot Inventory Buildup May Lead to Continued Price Consolidation] The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, obstruction of major shipping routes, and expectations for rising transportation costs are anticipated to increase pressure on Europe's energy supply. After the domestic holiday, the lead market has experienced severe inventory buildup...

[Weekly Guangdong Contract Rollover Spot Premiums/Discounts Declined] This week, Guangdong premiums and discounts fell by about 55 yuan/mt WoW. As of Friday, mainstream 0# zinc spot premiums in Guangdong were at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, and the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread widened...

SMM February 27: After the holiday, downstream battery enterprises resumed work at a slow pace, with weak purchase willingness for lead ingots, leading to a sluggish lead price trend. Secondary lead enterprises were under pressure and incurred losses, with low enthusiasm for spot order shipments and limited offers. The current ex-factory price was at a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt to the SMM #1 lead average price. Although downstream enterprises gradually resumed work, they mainly focused on digesting pre-holiday inventory, and lead ingot procurement was expected to see limited improvement next week. Supported by the steady to rising scrap battery prices, secondary lead production costs remained high while ex-factory prices were weak, resulting in sustained losses for smelters. As of February 27, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large enterprises was -344 yuan/mt, and for small and medium-sized enterprises was -558 yuan/mt (by-product revenue in the model excluded tin and antimony), indicating significant profit pressure across the industry. 》Order to View SMM Metal Spot Historical Prices

[SMM Titanium Weekly Review: Titanium Market Diverged Post-Holiday, Titanium Dioxide Led Gains While Titanium Products Steadily Recovered] This week, the titanium industry chain showed divergent performance. Titanium concentrate operated steadily, with mines awaiting new March orders. Sentiment for titanium dioxide price hikes remained strong, led by the chloride process; high sulphuric acid costs supported expectations for price increases, though actual implementation still depends on demand follow-through. Titanium slag was in the doldrums, under cost pressure, with prices consolidating at the bottom. Sponge titanium saw weak supply and demand, prices held steady, and future performance relies on downstream restocking to boost recovery. The titanium products market recovered steadily, mainly driven by rigid demand restocking, and is expected to stabilize next week.

As of February 24, the operating rate of 50 EAF steel mills producing construction steel nationwide was 0%, down 1% MoM; the capacity utilization rate was 0%, down 19.41% MoM; and the daily average production of construction steel was 0 mt, down 43,200 mt MoM.

SMM February 26 News: Aluminum Ingot: On February 26, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was quoted at 23,520-23,580 yuan/mt, with an average price of 23,550 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt, at a discount of 145 yuan against the front-month contract. Aluminum prices rose but the spot market was under pressure. Suppliers' attempts to hold prices firm in the morning were unsuccessful, and they were forced to lower their quotes due to the dual pressures of inventory buildup and rising prices, expanding the discount range to -90~0 yuan/mt, with ample supply of circulating goods. Downstream demand is still in the early stages of recovery, showing weak willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise. Traders only push for lower prices and purchase as needed, leading to overall oversupply. In the later part, heightened volatility in futures prices resulted in a situation where there were prices but no transactions. Aluminum Billet: On February 26, the average price of SMM 6063 grade aluminum billet (Guangdong) Φ90/100 was 160 yuan/mt, and the average price for Φ120 and above specifications was 110 yuan/mt, unchanged from yesterday. The increase in base prices led to a divergence in processing fees, with a significant difference between high and low prices. The downstream demand recovery was slow, and purchasing remained sluggish. The decline in futures prices further intensified the wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Some merchants lowered their quotes to hit bottom, resulting in difficult overall transactions, with weak demand being the core constraining factor.

[POSCO and SK On Form Lithium Alliance for Battery Cooperation] POSCO and SK On have signed a long-term lithium supply agreement, aiming to stabilize the battery materials supply chain. According to a statement released by the two companies on Wednesday, POSCO will supply up to 25,000 mt of lithium from this year until 2028 under the agreement. This supply is sufficient to produce batteries for approximately 400,000 EVs. The lithium will be produced by POSCO Argentina at the Salar del Hombre Muerto salt flat in Salta Province, Argentina, and supplied to SK On's EV battery projects in Europe and North America. SK On is also considering using the material for ESS. Source: https://pulse.mk.co.kr/ [Cornwall's Geothermal Revolution: Extracting Green Energy and Lithium from Granite] The UK's renewable energy sector has achieved a significant leap forward, with a pioneering mini power station in Cornwall officially commencing operation, successfully using underground hot granite to produce zero-carbon electricity and extract high-value battery-grade lithium. Led by Geothermal Engineering Ltd., the project innovatively combines green power generation with critical minerals extraction, is expected to revitalize the region's historic mining economy and supply electricity to thousands of households via the power grid. For East Africa, a region rich in geothermal potential (particularly the Kenyan Rift Valley), the dual extraction technology provides an attractive model. If African energy producers can adopt this approach, simultaneously obtaining electricity and high-profit minerals from geothermal wells, it will significantly enhance the economic feasibility of green energy projects across the continent. Source: https://streamlinefeed.co.ke/ [Zimbabwe Bans Lithium Exports: Global Supply Chain Crisis Emerges] Zimbabwe's recent decision to implement a comprehensive ban on lithium exports marks a watershed moment for the global critical minerals market, highlighting the growing influence of resource nationalism on international supply chains. This policy shift reflects a broader trend: mineral-rich countries are prioritizing domestic value creation over raw material exports, fundamentally altering the landscape of the global battery metals market. The impact extends far beyond a single country; its ripple effects will run through international supply chains, from EVs to renewable energy infrastructure. When countries with significant mineral reserves impose export restrictions, the resulting market dynamics can permanently alter the entire industry's price structures, investment flows, and strategic planning. Zimbabwe's recent decision to suspend mineral exports is a prominent example of this phenomenon. This southern African country, which supplied approximately 10% of the world's lithium resources in 2024, has effectively cut off external supply of its battery metal resources, forcing international buyers to scramble for alternative sources, while domestic processing capacity remains severely underdeveloped. Source: https://discoveryalert.com.au/ [Atlantic Lithium Acquisition Proposal Rejected: 2026 Strategic Value Preservation Strategy] When mature miners pursue mergers and acquisitions during market recovery periods, the core of their strategy shifts from acquiring distressed assets to preserving strategic value. The lithium industry exemplifies this dynamic—during phases of rebounding commodity prices, pre-production developers increasingly tend to reject acquisition proposals, prioritizing long-term value creation over immediate liquidity events. Furthermore, understanding broader critical minerals strategies is essential when assessing these complex market dynamics. Market participants observed that spodumene concentrate prices rebounded from a cyclical low of $800/mt in October 2025 to approximately $1,900/mt by February 2026, a 137.5% increase within four months. This rapid recovery has created a significant valuation gap between acquirers' offers and target companies' intrinsic value assessments. The case of Atlantic Lithium's rejected acquisition proposal demonstrates how pre-production lithium developers evaluate conditional non-binding acquisition offers based on the medium and long-term demand fundamentals in the EV and BESS sectors. Enterprises in the late-stage permitting phase generally believe that current market conditions do not fully reflect the full potential of their asset portfolios. Source: https://discoveryalert.com.au/ [Indian Company Deploys Non-Lithium Multi-Ion Battery System] Mumbai-based battery technology developer Gegadyne Energy stated that its delivery of the first non-lithium multi-ion chemistry battery packs to two of the world's largest material handling original equipment manufacturers marks a true "inflection point" for the forklift industry. Gegadyne has completed the first commercial deployment of its non-lithium multi-ion chemistry battery packs with Linde Material Handling India and the Godrej & Boyce Group. The company claims that this battery, with a cycle life exceeding 5,000 cycles, can be charged from 0% to 100% in 15 minutes, thereby "completely eliminating" dependence on the lithium supply chain. Designed for forklifts, cranes, and warehouse equipment, the battery operates effectively within a temperature range of -40°C to 65°C. Source: https://www.forkliftaction.com/

【SMM Scrap Aluminium Market Analysis】Southeast Asia's Secondary Aluminum Industry Trapped in "Margin Squeeze": Raw Material Surge Forces ADC12 Plant Cuts, Industry May Enter "Lunar New Year Mode" Early February 2026 marked a period of unprecedented regulatory volatility for the global secondary aluminum and scrap markets. Driven by a confluence of tariff upheavals, aggressive decarbonization mandates, and stringent environmental crackdowns, the traditional flow of aluminum scrap is being fundamentally redrawn. As the United States implements sweeping new import surcharges, the European Union weighs restrictive export measures, and Southeast Asian hubs like Malaysia tighten their borders against contaminated materials, market participants are facing mounting compliance costs and disrupted arbitrage windows. This review examines the key policy shifts that defined the ex-China aluminum recycling sector this month and their immediate implications for global trade flows. The United States: How the 10% Surcharge Disrupts Secondary Aluminum Following the United States Supreme Court’s ruling, which invalidated Trump’s IEEPA tariffs on February 20, 2026, many trade goods found themselves navigating a complicated and chaotic new regulatory landscape. Within hours of the ruling, President Trump pivoted to Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, levying a 10% blanket global import surcharge that went into effect on February 24, replacing the former country-based tariffs. There have also been threats made by President Trump to raise this surcharge to the statutory maximum of 15%, which could further disrupt global trade and U.S. imports. Even though most primary aluminum products will not see a huge change due to already being burdened by the 50% Section 232 tariffs, the secondary aluminum market, which formerly enjoyed a 0% tariff under Section 232, might now be caught in the newest 10% blanket import surcharge. The US Geological Survey’s Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, published in February 2026, estimated an increase in imported scrap into the US in 2025, reaching roughly 890,000 metric tons, which is approximately a 27% increase compared to 2024. Even though scrap imports only make up roughly 20% of the US’s total scrap consumption, a blanket import surcharge will likely affect a significant portion of total scrap imports for the active period of the Section 122 policy. This is especially true as the policy remains highly volatile and faces the risk of being increased or challenged in the near future. Europe: The "Scrap Leakage" Debate and Impending Export Controls The EU aluminum recycling sector is also on edge following the closure of the EU’s public consultation in late January. Currently, trade measures are widely expected to be unveiled and launched during Spring 2026, aimed at curbing what the EU terms "aluminum scrap leakage." European Aluminum, as one of the biggest supporters of trade measures to control scrap leakage, cites outflows exceeding 1.3 million tons annually that could instead be utilized domestically to meet decarbonization and net-zero targets. In February, the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) released statements opposing these trade measures, stating that "the imposition of export restrictions or trade barriers is fundamentally unnecessary and risks producing significant unintended consequences for the entire value chain." BIR also explained how its own monitoring fails to identify scrap leakage issues, noting that the EU currently has insufficient domestic smelting capacity to absorb the extra scrap that is being exported out of Europe. In the same statement, BIR warned of a probable reduction in domestic aluminum scrap prices and a decline in the overall quality of waste management systems. Similarly, in 2025, the European Recycling Industries' Confederation (EuRIC) published stark warnings against the possible restriction of aluminum scrap exports. In a scenario where all grades of aluminum scrap are restricted from being exported, or if exports are hit with a significant surcharge, the Asian market, especially China, India, and Southeast Asia, all of which are large importers of EU scrap would be heavily impacted. Supply would see significant decreases, and prices outside Europe might climb to new highs as markets adjust to fill the gap, while secondary prices within the EU could drop to new lows due to localized oversupply. Malaysia: The E-Waste Crackdown and Stringent SIRIM Enforcement Following the success of "Ops Metal" in 2025, Malaysia has seen a massive volume of illegal scrap imports seized, amounting to a total value of RM 7 billion. In response to the influx of illegal scrap imports frequently mixed with electronic waste, the Malaysian government implemented an absolute e-waste import ban effective February 4, 2026, in order to curb these environmental violations. While aluminum scrap is still legally allowed to be imported into Malaysia, albeit under strict SIRIM purity requirements, the absolute e-waste ban will inevitably affect certain secondary grades. Notably, Zorba imports will likely see significant increases in transit and processing times, as customs officials are now far more likely to detain such cargoes for exhaustive inspections due to the high probability of e-waste contamination. In the broader picture, the volume of aluminum scrap legally entering Malaysia will likely decrease. Coupled with escalating processing delays at customs, this friction increases the probability that businesses will actively divert their aluminum scrap trade elsewhere in Southeast Asia, such as to Thailand. Conclusion Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2026, the secondary aluminum market will likely remain in a state of flux as these regional policies take full effect. The era of frictionless global scrap trade is rapidly giving way to a localized, highly regulated environment. For remelters and traders, navigating this landscape will require extreme supply chain agility and a hyper-focus on material compliance. As European supply risks being politically landlocked, U.S. raw material imports become suddenly more expensive, and Southeast Asian quality barriers rise, we expect to see continued volatility in regional premiums and a widening decoupling of traditional scrap-to-LME pricing mechanisms in certain regions. Adapting to this fragmented reality will be the defining challenge for the industry in the months to come.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,957/mt, moving sideways around the daily average during the Asian session. Entering the European session, the US dollar index strengthened before pulling back, and the broad-based gains in nonferrous metals boosted LME lead to rise all the way to a high of $1,996/mt. After small fluctuations at high levels, it finally closed at $1,995.5/mt, up $36/mt or 1.84%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,715 yuan/mt, initially dipped to a low of 16,700 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward, lightly touching 16,800 yuan/mt at highs, and finally closed at 16,790 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt or 0.27%. On the macro front: US Trade Representative Greer recently stated that the US will continue to advance the 301 investigation into China's implementation of the Phase One trade deal and may take tariff measures. Against the backdrop of a rebound in risk appetite, market expectations for the US Fed to start interest rate cuts before mid-year have significantly cooled, with expectations for a June rate cut diminishing. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz paid his first official visit to China from February 25 to 26, accompanied by a high-level delegation including 30 representatives from the German business community. Spot fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of 80-50 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2603 contract. SHFE lead maintained a consolidation trend, and as it was late February with the transition between old and new long-term contracts, some suppliers actively cleared inventory by shipping goods at discounts, while a few traders purchased on dips. Downstream enterprises were still in the early stages of resuming work, with limited rigid demand and few inquiries. In terms of secondary lead, some smelters had not yet resumed production, market quotations were scattered, operating enterprises held prices firm for shipments, and secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises adopted a wait-and-see approach with minimal purchases, and spot order market transactions had not improved significantly. Inventory: On February 25, LME lead inventory decreased by 25 mt to 286,300 mt. As of February 24, the total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions tracked by SMM accumulated further, with the total jumping to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: This week, downstream enterprises gradually resumed work and production, with spot purchases mainly focused on long-term contract cargo pick-up, while spot order purchasing demand remained weak. On the supply side for refined lead, primary lead smelters in Hunan that underwent maintenance and production cuts during the holiday gradually resumed crude lead production; primary lead output is expected to recover sequentially from early March to mid-March, with quotations relatively firm. For secondary refined lead, supply recovery was limited by the end of February, but a concentrated recovery is anticipated in early March. Subsequently, the lead market is expected to see both supply and demand increase after the recovery in lead consumption. This week, as the supply of refined lead has not yet recovered concentratedly, support for lead prices remains moderate, and lead prices may continue to move sideways in the short term.