In the spot market this week (Jul. 6-10, 2026), the SMM #1 lead price first fell then rose, with the weekly average price up 50 yuan/mt WoW. At the beginning of the week, lead prices consolidated on a subdued note. Lead smelters had high inventory and mostly sold shipments following the market. EXW primary lead cargoes were quoted at parity against the SMM #1 lead average price, and downstream enterprises gradually purchased as needed for restocking, with moderate spot trading activity. In the second half of the week, lead prices stopped falling and rebounded. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was curbed, and market wait-and-see sentiment heightened. Lead smelters expanded discounts for shipments, with Hunan quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price at a discount of 50-30 yuan/mt, EXW. For secondary refined lead, smelters had considerable production suspensions and cuts, with strong sentiment of holding back from selling at low prices. Secondary refined lead quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt. In the second half of the week, as lead prices rebounded, secondary lead smelters sold less at premiums, and transactions at a 50 yuan/mt discount emerged, with market trading also weakening.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,882.5/mt, drifted lower to a low of $1,875/mt during Asian trading hours before rebounding. Entering European trading hours, bulls pushed LME lead higher, reaching a high of $1,904.5/mt at the close, finally settling at $1,887.5/mt, up 0.35%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened higher with a gap at 15,940 yuan/mt, lightly touching a low of 15,930 yuan/mt at the start of trading. Boosted by the rise in LME lead, SHFE lead rose to 16,110 yuan/mt. Due to poor fundamentals, it gave back some gains at the close, finally settling at 16,030 yuan/mt, up 0.79%. Macro Front: The US trade deficit widened to its largest in over a year in May, with imports broadly increasing and exports declining. The PBOC increased gold holdings for the 20th consecutive month. The State Administration for Market Regulation will conduct spot checks on fair competition reviews. China's foreign exchange reserves in June stood at $3,416.262 billion. PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that the State Administration of Foreign Exchange will continue to increase the proportion of asset allocation in Hong Kong. The PBOC and two other departments welcomed the China Foreign Exchange Trade System and Hong Kong Exchanges (HKEX) to co-build Hong Kong's electronic fixed income and currency trading platform. Spot Fundamentals: SHFE lead consolidated on a subdued note. Suppliers sold as the market moved, with transactions mostly at small discounts. Meanwhile, EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters were generally traded at discounts, with quotations in mainstream production areas from a discount of 25 yuan/mt to a premium of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, smelters had many production cuts and shutdowns, resulting in limited market supply. Secondary refined lead quotations remained near parity against the SMM #1 lead price. Downstream enterprises were not very active in purchasing, with some mainly relying on long-term contracts and others only making just-in-time procurement, so spot market trading activity was average. Inventory: On July 7, LME lead inventory decreased by 200 mt to 292,075 mt. As of July 6, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions totaled 70,200 mt, a decrease of 2,300 mt from July 2. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Demand side, the off-season trend persisted in July. After large enterprises resolved the factors of semi-annual inventory counting and account closing, they resumed regular procurement, bringing some purchasing expectations. Supply side, primary lead enterprises are about to resume after maintenance, shifting supply expectations to an increase, while secondary lead enterprises remained in a state of production cuts, with regional supply limitations. Overall, lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

In the spot market this week (6.29-7.3), the SMM #1 lead price drifted lower, declining for three consecutive days and cumulatively falling 325 yuan before staging a slight rebound on Friday to recover part of the losses. Amid month-end and mid-year book-closing and inventory checks, downstream battery producers held a strong wait-and-see sentiment, only purchasing small volumes for immediate needs, leaving overall spot order trading sluggish. By region, in Henan, smelters focused on deliveries under long-term contracts, and traders' discount range against the SHFE lead 2608 contract narrowed initially and then widened, with the full-week discount at 130-50 yuan and only sporadic transactions for low-priced cargoes; in Hunan, smelter spot order discounts gradually narrowed from 50-0 yuan to parity, with moderate transactions for low-priced cargoes; supplies in Jiangxi and Anhui remained tight throughout, with offers consistently at a premium of 100 yuan; Yunnan smelters cut prices to clear inventory, with discounts widening to 200-150 yuan during the week.

Spot market this week (6.22-6.26), SMM #1 lead price drifted lower, declining for consecutive days initially before rebounding slightly on Friday. Coinciding with the dual periods of mid-year and month-end, downstream battery factories concentrated on inventory counting and account closing, with strong wait-and-see sentiment. Just-in-time procurement was limited, and overall spot order trading remained weak. By region, Henan smelters mainly focused on long-term contract deliveries. Traders' quotes showed significant divergence, with spot orders against the SHFE lead 2607 contract at a discount range of 150-80 yuan/mt. At the weekend, the discount narrowed slightly to 130-100 yuan/mt, and only low-priced cargo saw sporadic transactions. Hunan smelters continued to widen discounts to move goods, with spot order discounts expanding from 30-0 yuan/mt to 80-50 yuan/mt. Small-brand lead discounts reached as high as 100 yuan/mt, and market transactions were limited. Jiangxi smelters had tight supply, and quotations maintained a premium structure throughout, with the premium raised from 80 yuan/mt to 100 yuan/mt and remaining stable.

In the spot market this week (6.15-6.18), SMM #1 lead prices first rose then fell, continuing to climb during the week before a slight correction ahead of the holiday. With mid-year settlement and the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, downstream stocking willingness was sluggish, purchases at high prices were cautious, and spot order trading was sluggish. By region, smelters in Henan had low inventory and tight spot order supply, while traders’ supply was stably at discounts of 100-150 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2607 contract, with sluggish trading; smelters in Hunan quoted premiums of 0-20 yuan on the 15th, turned to discounts of 30-0 yuan on the 17th and 18th, with some cargoes negotiated to a discount of 50 yuan; smelters in Jiangxi and Anhui were unwilling to make significant concessions throughout, only slightly lowering their quotes, with premiums narrowing from 100-150 yuan to 80-100 yuan. Overall, downstream mostly relied on long-term contract purchases, and spot transactions were generally weak this week.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,970/mt, fluctuating downward during Asian trading hours; entering European trading hours, it dipped to a low of $1,962/mt. Ahead of the US Fed's interest rate decision, the US dollar index fluctuated lower, and LME lead shook off pressure and rallied, hitting a high of $1,983.5/mt at the tail end before finally settling at $1,982.5/mt, up 0.71%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,350 yuan/mt, initially touching a low of 16,320 yuan/mt. Boosted by the rise in LME lead, it then touched a high of 16,425 yuan/mt at the tail end, with the KDJ gap widening, and finally settled at 16,415 yuan/mt, up 0.64%. On the macro front: Trump: ready to let the Russian oil sanctions waiver expire and lapse. World Gold Council survey: more central banks indicate plans to increase gold reserves. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, the highest level in 31 years; the central bank decided to suspend the reduction of bond purchases from April next year. Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs: the safe and free passage of the Strait of Hormuz serves the interests of all parties. China Central Depository & Clearing Co.: plans to reduce the settlement service fee for cash bond trades executed by market makers through market-making from 20% off to 25% off. National Bureau of Statistics: in May, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 4.5%; from January to May, total retail sales of consumer goods grew 1.4%. NBS: in May, new home prices in first-tier cities rose 0.2% MoM; second-hand home prices in first-tier cities rose 0.4% MoM. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead continued to hold up well, with suppliers' quotes remaining unchanged. Meanwhile, transactions for EXW cargoes from some smelters weakened. Mainstream electrolytic lead was quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, with some even at a discount of 50 yuan/mt. In the secondary lead market, smelters showed divergent selling intentions. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 125 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price ex-works. Downstream enterprises only made just-in-time procurement, with some mainly taking delivery under long-term contracts or receiving earlier-arriving cargoes. Spot market trading was sluggish. Inventory: on June 16, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,175 mt to 303,675 mt. As of June 15, social inventory of SMM lead ingots across five regions totaled 67,700 mt, up 3,000 mt from June 8 and up 2,300 mt from June 11. Lead price forecast for today: Transactions for primary lead EXW cargoes weakened. Secondary lead smelters experienced new maintenance, keeping supply-side uncertainties in place. Downstream battery producers maintained just-in-time procurement, and some enterprises stopped spot procurement as their lead ingot inventory was adequate for just-in-time production, supplemented by long-term contract cargo pick-ups. As the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approaches, beware of the drag on lead prices from a weak supply-demand situation.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,960/mt. In early trading, prices briefly fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $1,974/mt before bulls’ upward momentum faded and prices fluctuated downward. During the European session, the downward fluctuation continued, with prices touching a low of $1,942/mt. Near the close, prices rebounded quickly and settled at $1,957.5/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down $5/mt or 0.25%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,135 yuan/mt. As bears entered the market, SHFE lead prices fluctuated downward from early to mid-session, touching a low of 16,000 yuan/mt. Near the close, prices rebounded slightly and settled at 16,040 yuan/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down 180 yuan/mt or 1.11%. On the macro front: Trump canceled planned strikes on Iran tonight; the US-Iran agreement has entered the final drafting stage and is expected to be signed in Europe this weekend. US media disclosed behind-the-scenes negotiations on the US-Iran deal: three major differences have narrowed under Qatar’s mediation. Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that no final conclusion has been reached on the US-Iran agreement. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US would withdraw funds from Iran’s accounts to compensate Gulf states for losses if necessary. The European Central Bank raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled. The CME Group plans to launch round-the-clock crude oil and gold futures contracts. The State Administration for Market Regulation, together with the Cyberspace Administration of China and the National Railway Administration, held talks with seven third-party platforms involved in train ticket sales. “Ten-billion-yuan subsidies” are not truly 10 billion yuan—Taobao, JD.com, Pinduoduo, Douyin, and Xiaohongshu were summoned for talks. Kweichow Moutai Chairman Chen Hua stated the company has no plan for a stock split. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead rebounded after stopping its decline, with suppliers selling at prevailing prices. Some quotes were at wider discounts than yesterday, and mainstream primary lead smelters offered ex-works at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price. For secondary lead, smelters’ selling sentiment improved relatively, but quotes remained scarce, with secondary refined lead offered at premiums of 0–25 yuan/mt over the SMM #1 lead price ex-works. Downstream enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement, with some purchasing under long-term contracts or drawing on inventory; overall purchasing enthusiasm was moderate, and spot market transactions were sluggish. Inventories: As of June 11, LME lead inventories decreased by 575 mt to 306,650 mt. Total social inventories of SMM lead ingots across five regions increased by 700 mt to 65,400 mt. Lead price forecast for today: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are weakening overseas consumption and export expectations. LME lead inventories remain at multi-year highs, and overseas lead prices are under pressure, dragging down the Chinese market. The downstream sector is entering the off-season, with battery enterprises conducting mid-year account settlements and stock takes; procurement is expected to contract going forward, making it difficult for the demand side to support higher prices. Supply side, some secondary lead smelters plan to cut production due to losses, while some primary lead smelters are in maintenance, combined with expectations for production resumptions at some secondary lead smelters, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined on the supply side, and lead prices are expected to show a volatile pattern in the short term.

This week (May 25-29, 2026), SMM #1 lead prices generally rose first and then declined. Downstream enterprises maintained cautious purchasing sentiment overall, with rigid demand dominating and insufficient purchase willingness at high prices. The spot market saw generally weak trading activity. Regionally, smelters in Henan initially offered firm quotes at a premium of 50-75 yuan/mt ex-factory. As lead prices pulled back during the week, premiums were gradually lowered to 25-50 yuan/mt. Traders showed significant divergence in quotes, with discounts against the SHFE lead 2607 contract gradually narrowing from 200-150 yuan/mt to 170-120 yuan/mt. In Hunan, smelter spot order premiums remained stable at 0-30 yuan/mt during the week, with some rigid demand transactions concluded near parity, and smelter shipments enthusiasm improved slightly. Smelters in Jiangxi and Anhui consistently offered firm quotes at a premium of 120-150 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with the elevated premium pattern remaining unchanged. Overall, downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed on dips, and the market showed mediocre performance in transactions throughout the week.

SMM May 26: The London Metal Exchange was closed on May 25 for a UK bank holiday and resumed trading on May 26. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,755 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,775 yuan/mt at the start of the session before pulling back, and moved sideways around the 16,700 yuan/mt level, ultimately closing at 16,710 yuan/mt, down 0.27%. Recently, apart from a few social warehouses where lead ingot inventory declined due to downstream enterprises picking up goods, other social warehouses saw slight increases due to suppliers' inventory transfers and arrivals of imported lead. After concentrated dip-buying by downstream enterprises during the lead price pullback last week, lead prices have rebounded in recent days, and downstream enterprises' enthusiasm for purchases has weakened notably. In addition, with secondary lead losses repaired, smelters actively offered shipments at discounts. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of -50~0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price on an ex-factory basis, while primary lead was quoted at premiums of 0~+75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price on an ex-factory basis. Some downstream enterprises' rigid demand leaned toward secondary lead. Going forward, social inventory destocking of lead ingots will continue to slow down, and resistance above lead prices remains evident. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: The London Metal Exchange was closed on May 25 for a UK bank holiday and resumed trading on May 26. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,755 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,775 yuan/mt before pulling back, then moved sideways around the 16,700 yuan/mt level, and finally closed at 16,710 yuan/mt, down 0.27%. On the macro front: Guinea, the world's largest bauxite-producing country, will announce export control measures in June. China responded to the fact that no heavy rare earth had been exported to Japan for four months: China prohibits the export of dual-use items to Japanese military users and for military purposes in accordance with laws and regulations, aiming to stop Japan's "remilitarization" and nuclear ambitions. China responded to the prospect of a US-Iran deal: since the door to dialogue has been opened, it should not be closed again; the momentum of easing should be maintained, the general direction of political settlement should be upheld, and a solution that addresses the concerns of all parties should be reached through dialogue and consultation. : In the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market, a small volume of warrant-based cargoes were quoted. Suppliers mainly shipped cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelter production sites. Due to supply differences between northern and southern markets, quotations in the northern market were firmer. On the secondary lead front, smelter losses were repaired and shipment enthusiasm increased, with secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of -50~0 yuan/mt ex-works against SMM #1 lead. As lead prices strengthened, downstream enterprises showed weakened purchasing enthusiasm. Some continued to purchase warrant-based cargoes from nearby warehouses, while those with rigid demand leaned toward lower-priced secondary lead cargoes. In terms of inventory: on May 25, LME lead was closed; LME lead inventory stood at 286,475 mt as of May 22. SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions totaled 70,100 mt, down 3,200 mt from May 18 and down 3,200 mt from May 21. Lead price forecast for today: Recently, apart from individual social warehouses where lead ingot inventory declined due to downstream enterprises picking up goods, other social warehouses saw slight increases due to inventory transfers by suppliers and arrivals of imported lead. After concentrated dip-buying by downstream enterprises during the lead price pullback last week, lead prices rebounded in recent days, and downstream enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm weakened notably. In addition, as secondary lead smelter losses were repaired, smelters actively shipped at discounts. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of -50~0 yuan/mt ex-works against SMM #1 lead price, while in contrast, primary lead was quoted at premiums of +0~+75 yuan/mt ex-works against SMM #1 lead price. Some downstream enterprises with rigid demand leaned toward secondary lead. Going forward, the destocking of lead ingot social inventory is expected to continue to slow down, and resistance above lead prices remains evident. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.