IIn June 2026, POSCO held a completion ceremony for its Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) at the Gwangyang steelworks on South Korea's southern coast, approximately 360 kilometers from Seoul, and has initiated the full-scale production of low-carbon steel. With an annual designed capacity of 2.5 million tons , this EAF is the largest single facility of its kind in South Korea. This marks POSCO's first large-scale upstream steelmaking investment in over two decades, signaling the beginning of a structural adjustment to its blast furnace-centric production system. Against the backdrop of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entering its definitive payment stage and the tightening of Phase 4 of the Korea Emissions Trading Scheme (K-ETS), the strategic significance of this project outweighs the sheer capacity itself. Project Details & Commissioning Timeline The special significance of this project lies in its time span: since the blow-in of Blast Furnace No. 5 at the Gwangyang plant in April 2000, POSCO had not invested in major upstream steelmaking capacity for over 20 years. This pivot to EAFs represents the first directional shift in its blast furnace-centric hot metal production system in half a century. Regarding technical configuration, the EAF primarily utilizes steel scrap as its raw material, substituting the traditional iron ore-coke reduction route of the blast furnace through scrap melting. This shift achieves up to 75% CO2 emission reductions compared to traditional blast furnaces. The core equipment is supplied by Italy's Tenova, featuring the Consteel continuous scrap charging system and the Consterrer electromagnetic stirring system. POSCO also utilizes the off-gas generated during EAF operations to preheat the scrap, thereby enhancing energy efficiency. The completion ceremony was attended by South Korean Prime Minister Kim Min-seok and POSCO Group Chairman Jang In-hwa. Key Timeline Market Impact Post-Commissioning In the short term, the direct market impact of this EAF is relatively mild; its value is predominantly structural and strategic. This can be analyzed through three key threads: raw materials, products, and regulations. Scrap Market — Gradual demand release, but with a cautious pace: In the initial stage of commissioning, POSCO plans to primarily consume internally generated scrap at the Gwangyang plant, keeping external purchases limited; the company estimates external scrap purchases in 2026 to be approximately 2 million tons . Because the green steel market has grown slower than previously expected, scrap consumption in the short term may remain relatively restrained. This means the EAF's upward pull on South Korean and regional scrap prices will be gradual, rather than causing a significant demand spike in the year of commissioning. Entering High-End Flat Products via Hot Metal Blending: POSCO's differentiated approach relies on "hot metal blending" technology, which mixes and refines molten steel from the EAF with hot metal from the blast furnace to lower carbon emissions while maintaining the steel quality required for high-end products. The company has designated high-grade EAF steel as one of its eight strategic products and established an integrated R&D, production, and sales project team, aiming to mass-produce automotive sheets and electrical steel by 2030. This directly addresses the growing demand for low-carbon steel from downstream automotive and electrical clients, distinguishing POSCO's EAF route from ordinary long-product EAF capacities. Regulation & Competition — Low-carbon capacity as a hedge for export competitiveness: The timing of the commissioning is highly aligned with tightening global regulations. The EU CBAM entered its definitive stage on January 1, 2026, requiring imported steel to incur fees for its embodied carbon emissions. This obligation ratio will increase annually from about 2.5% in 2026 to 100% by 2034 (corresponding to the synchronized phase-out of free allowances within the EU). For export-oriented South Korean steelmakers, low-carbon capacity acts as a hedging tool to maintain competitiveness in the European market. Overall, the Gwangyang EAF will not significantly alter POSCO's production volume structure or overall carbon footprint in its first year— 2.5 million tons represents a limited share relative to its total crude steel production. Its true significance lies in establishing a low-carbon product line and corresponding client relationships ahead of the commercialization of hydrogen-reduction steelmaking. It is a layout where the "option value" exceeds the "current capacity value." Global Steel Decarbonization Background The steel industry accounts for approximately 7%–9% of global CO2 emissions (World Steel Association data), making it one of the hardest-to-abate heavy industries. The root of the emission disparities lies in the steelmaking routes: the traditional Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) process relies on coking coal as energy and a reducing agent, making it the most carbon-intensive route; whereas the Scrap-EAF route relies primarily on electricity, making it the most mature route with the lowest carbon intensity. However, the practical constraint on route transition lies in the existing capacity structure. Within global crude steel production, the BF-BOF route still accounts for roughly 72% ; scrap-based EAF accounts for about 21% , with the remainder being Direct Reduced Iron-EAF (DRI-EAF) and other routes. China, accounting for over half of global production with a nearly 90% blast furnace share, has become the critical variable determining the pace of global steel decarbonization. Targeting the 2050 net-zero goal, mainstream pathways require the production structure to significantly tilt toward EAFs and hydrogen-based direct reduction. Yet, the transition is bottlenecked by a triple constraint: the supply and availability of high-quality scrap, the scaling up of green electricity, and the cost premium of low-carbon steel over traditional products. POSCO's "two-step" arrangement—using EAF as a transition and HyREX hydrogen reduction as the endgame—is a quintessential choice within this global landscape. South Korean Steelmakers' Decarbonization Efforts The decarbonization of the South Korean steel industry is not a solo endeavor by a single enterprise. As early as February 2021, six South Korean steelmakers, including POSCO and Hyundai Steel, jointly issued a 2050 Carbon Neutrality Declaration and established the "Green Steel Committee," comprising industry, academia, research institutions, and government departments. Since then, driven by the dual pressures of policy constraints (K-ETS Phase 4, South Korea's Nationally Determined Contributions - NDC) and external forces (CBAM), each company has formed decarbonization layouts with similar trajectories but different focuses. The common logic for both companies is clear: currently employing "transitional technologies" such as EAFs and hot metal blending to reduce the carbon footprint of products, introducing hydrogen-based direct reduction around 2030, and targeting 2050 for a full transition. The differences lie in their entry points—POSCO is betting on its self-developed HyREX as the core for the hydrogen metallurgy endgame, whereas Hyundai Steel, under its Hy-Cube brand, aims to commercialize high-end flat EAF products (like automotive sheets) much earlier. The commissioning of the Gwangyang EAF is precisely a quantifiable, deliverable milestone in this overarching transition process.

[SMM Steel] Global crude steel output reached 157.9 million tonnes in May 2026 among the 70 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (worldsteel), down 0.3% year-on-year. Output for January-May totaled 773.1 million tonnes, a 1.5% decline. China remained the top producer with 84.4 million tonnes, down 2.7% y-o-y; India ranked second with 14.1 million tonnes, up 1.9%; the U.S. produced 7.5 million tonnes, up 9.2%. The CIS+Ukraine region produced 6.7 million tonnes, down 4.8% y-o-y. North America saw the strongest regional growth at +15.6% (10.1 million tonnes), while the Middle East recorded the steepest drop at -19.4% (3.9 million tonnes).

A specialized global steel industrial census presented by the World Steel Association (Worldsteel) at a high-level metal forum in Singapore revealed that the international transition to low-carbon metallurgy has hit a severe wall. Official project monitoring data verified that approximately 50% of all planned global green steel projects have already been postponed or put on hold. Steelmakers and industry analysts confirmed that while governments have allocated just $20 billion of the estimated $1.5 trillion in capital required to completely decarbonize the primary metals sector, uncompetitive premiums for green hydrogen are freezing multi-billion-dollar investments in direct-reduction iron (DRI) infrastructure.

On June 9, customs data showed that China exported 10.341 million mt of steel in May 2026, an increase of 844,000 mt MoM, up 8.9% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to May reached 44.554 million mt, down 8.1% YoY. China imported 451,000 mt of steel in May 2026, a decrease of 14,000 mt MoM, down 3.1% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to May totaled 2.255 million mt, declining 12.2% YoY. Table1 – Steel Import and Export Data Overview, January-May Source: SMM Steel Exports in May Crossed 10 Million mt MoM According to SMM's export schedule survey for May, planned HRC exports that month stood at 1.1435 million mt, up 213,500 mt from actual April exports, a 23% MoM increase. Meanwhile, SMM export order data showed that from March to April, domestic export prices held a strong advantage in international markets, and overseas demand for semi-finished products remained present. Export orders reached a periodical high in mid-April, providing some support for May exports exceeding 10 million mt. Table 2– China Total Steel Exports Source: SMM Steel Imports in May Declined MoM On the import side, steel imports stood at 451,000 mt in May, edging down MoM. From January to May, China imported a total of 2.255 million mt of steel, down 12.2% YoY; net steel exports reached 42.299 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook 1. Global manufacturing diverges notably; US accelerates sharply while domestic new export orders slide from highs Global manufacturing activity showed marked divergence in May 2026. The latest PMI data indicates the US accelerated strongly, rising to 54% from 52.7% in April, though cost surges driven by inflation posed significant headwinds. The Eurozone PMI dropped to 47.5% from 48.8%. India continued to demonstrate resilience: its May manufacturing PMI reached 55%, a three-month high, fueled by robust domestic demand, infrastructure spending, and new business growth. China's new export orders index came in at 48.6% in May, down 1.7 percentage points MoM, reflecting some weakening in export demand. 2. Overseas supply continues to decline, particularly evident in the Middle East World Steel Association data shows global crude steel production fell 1.9% YoY to 153.4 million mt in April 2026. Excluding China, output in the rest of the world slid 4.25% MoM, with production schedule paces diverging significantly across regions. Among markets outside China, India and Vietnam maintained high production levels, mainly benefiting from the structural ramp-up dividends brought by new capacity commissioning. Meanwhile, the US and Germany also stood out in April: the US was directly boosted by seasonal Q2 production schedule expansions in high-end manufacturing sectors such as automobiles, while Germany's four consecutive months of production rebound essentially reflected a strategic inventory build by steel mills in response to raw material price fluctuations. In contrast, Middle East production continued its steep YoY plunge during the month, mainly attributable to wartime energy controls and systemic logistical paralysis triggered by the US-Iran conflict and the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, Middle East output remains in contraction. As original recipient countries face a lack of stable supply sources, coupled with the digestion of previous low-priced resources, China's steel export orders may encounter structural opportunities. Figure 1 – Global Crude Steel Production by Region Source: SMM 3. Price advantage remains notable, but Southeast Asian markets show price-cutting behavior to seize market share As of June 5, 2026, HRC export quotations (FOB) from India, Turkey, and the CIS stood at $550/mt, $645/mt, and $535/mt, respectively, while China's HRC export quotation (FOB) was $501/mt. China's HRC export quotations currently stand at discounts of -$49/mt, -$144/mt, and -$34/mt against these countries, keeping its steel export price advantage distinct. Recently, however, Southeast Asia entered its off-season; with domestic demand unable to support elevated prices, there are signs of price reductions to capture orders from the international market and disperse domestic pressures. The price spread between China and Southeast Asia has narrowed somewhat. Figure 2 – HRC Quotations in Key Global Markets Source: SMM 4. Export orders dropped notably in May, with a related slowdown after concentrated procurement According to SMM's latest survey of steel mill export schedules, planned HRC exports this month stand at 1.03 million mt, roughly steady compared with actual exports last month. SMM steel export order data indicates that, affected by holidays, export orders in May declined noticeably from April on a MoM basis. Orders for both flat products and long products slipped, signaling that overseas buyers have slowed their procurement pace after the earlier round of concentrated procurement. Figure 3 – SMM Steel Export Order Volumes Source: SMM 5. HRC faced the most cases entering the enforcement stage in May After the concentrated final rulings of anti-dumping cases in April, anti-dumping cases decreased somewhat in May, involving products including HRC, coiled rebar, section steel, and steel pipes. Specific cases and their affected volumes are shown in the table below: Table – New Anti-Dumping Cases in May Source: SMM Taking all factors into consideration, as the new export orders index narrows somewhat, Southeast Asian markets cut prices to compete for orders, and the significant contraction in export order volumes over the previous two months gradually feeds through to the shipment stage, the cushioning effect from earlier orders will weaken considerably. SMM expects that actual total steel exports in June will face some downward pressure. At the same time, as overseas supply of previously low-priced materials is absorbed and Chinese prices remain competitive, domestic export orders may show a bottoming-out recovery trend. Recent feedback from the Southeast Asian market also indicates new procurement demand for semi-finished products. Figure 4 – Steel Exports and Forecast, 2024-2026 Source: SMM Disclaimer on Data Sources: Except for publicly available information, all other data herein are processed and derived by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. The content is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original work published on this official account. For requests regarding reproduction, whitelist access, cooperation, or other matters, please contact us. Without permission, the content shall not be reproduced, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or otherwise disclosed to third parties or licensed for third-party use. 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Chapter 1: The Energy Crisis Reshapes Coking Coal Value In 2026, with the Russia-Ukraine war still ongoing and the U.S.-Iran war reigniting, crude oil price centers continued to shift upward. Coupled with persistent geopolitical conflicts in other regions worldwide, energy security demand climbed, driving a systematic revaluation of coking coal value. Moreover, against the backdrop of high oil prices, the cost advantages of coal-based chemicals over oil-based chemicals began to emerge, improving the economics of coal-to-oil substitution and expanding coking coal demand. Coking coal possesses the dual attributes of industrial raw material and energy commodity, supported by both rigid demand and high elasticity to energy prices, with premium capacity far exceeding that of ordinary industrial products. Market perception underwent a fundamental shift, as coking coal gradually shed its subordinate positioning within the steel industry chain and was upgraded to a scarce strategic energy asset. The energy crisis restructured its valuation logic. Pricing broke free from the singular steel supply-demand framework and was incorporated into the global energy price comparison system. Energy and security premiums elevated the valuation center, making it an important target for hedging geopolitical risks and allocating strategic resources. Chapter 2: Global Coking Coal Market Landscape (1) Global Coking Coal Resource Distribution Data source: publicly available data Global coking coal resources account for 13% of total global coal resources, approximately 1,140 billion mt. About 49% are distributed in Europe, 29% in Asia, and 19% in North America. The economically recoverable reserves of coking coal are approximately 500 billion mt, of which high-quality coking coal with low ash and low sulfur content amounts to only about 60 billion mt. Economically recoverable coking coal resources are primarily concentrated in three countries: Russia (42%, approximately 210 billion mt), China (23%, approximately 115 billion mt), and the US (18%, approximately 90 billion mt), with other countries accounting for relatively small shares. (II) Global Coking Coal Production Distribution Data source: publicly available data Global coking coal production in 2025 was approximately 1.1 billion mt, with a highly concentrated production landscape. China ranked first at 514 million mt, accounting for 47% of global production and serving as the core supply pillar, though virtually all output was consumed domestically. Australia (172 million mt) and Russia (98 million mt) ranked second and third, followed closely by the US (59 million mt), Mongolia (54 million mt), and Canada (32 million mt), while India produced 25 million mt and Indonesia produced 11 million mt. These eight countries collectively accounted for 88% of global coking coal production. Data source: World Steel Association, IEA Major producing countries: China firmly held the top global position with absolute volumes rising from 480 million mt (2020) to 514 million mt (2025), achieving the highest global increase of 34 million mt, primarily driven by new domestic mine commissioning and supply security policies. Russia and Mongolia became key growth contributors with increases of 12 million mt and 23 million mt respectively — the former benefiting from post-sanction market redirection and new mine development, while the latter achieved substantial production increases through upgraded border customs clearance with China and railway cost reductions. Australia's capacity remained basically flat. EU countries (Germany, Poland) and Ukraine continued to cut production due to factors such as coal phase-out policies, aging mines, and geopolitical conflicts, while the US, India, Mozambique and other countries achieved capacity growth driven by export demand and downstream industry boost. (III) Analysis of Global Coking Coal Export Trade Data source: publicly available data Global coking coal export trade is highly concentrated in five countries—Australia, Russia, Mongolia, the US, and Indonesia—primarily for the following reasons: Monopolistic resource endowment: Russia accounts for 42% of the world's recoverable coking coal reserves, and the US accounts for 18%. Australia possesses globally scarce high-quality coking coal resources with low ash and low sulfur content. Mongolia and Indonesia also have distinctive coal varieties suited to blending needs. These resource barriers create a supply-side monopoly. Locational and logistics cost advantages: Australia's coking coal producing regions are adjacent to east coast ports, enabling low-cost seaborne access to the world's core steel-producing regions. Mongolia's mining areas border China, with overland logistics providing direct access to the Chinese market. Russia, the US, and Indonesia leverage mature seaborne and cross-border railway networks to achieve efficient coverage of global demand markets. Industrial structure and supply-demand mismatch: Although China holds 23% of the world's coking coal reserves, as the world's largest steel producer, China has extremely rigid coking coal consumption demand, making it the world's largest coking coal importer. In contrast, the five countries mentioned above have limited domestic consumption and surplus coking coal supply. Their industrial structures are centered on resource exports, providing a supply foundation for large-scale exports. Coal quality and global demand matching: The coal varieties from these countries form a complementary supply system. Australian coal is suited to high-end coke demand, Mongolian coal serves as a premium blending raw material, Russian coal covers the full range of varieties, and US and Indonesian coal meet the blending needs of different steelmaking processes. This precisely matches the rigid blending needs of global steel enterprises, forming a stable export pattern. Chapter 3: China's Coking Coal Market (1) Current Supply and Demand of Coking Coal in China Data sources: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), General Administration of Customs of China, publicly available data Supply side, China's coking coal concentrate production grew steadily, rising gradually from 480 million mt in 2020 to 514 million mt in 2025, with overall supply scale remaining stable and no wild swings observed. Import and export side, imports became the core variable supplementing China's domestic supply: imports briefly declined 24% YoY to 54.768 million mt in 2021, then entered a sustained expansion trajectory, with 2025 imports surging 117% from 2021 to 118 million mt; exports remained at low levels over the long term, once plunging 89% YoY to 92,000 mt in 2021, then gradually rebounding, but the 2025 export volume of 1.175 million mt had minimal impact on the overall market. Demand side, coking coal concentrate demand also maintained mild growth, with 2025 demand reaching 628 million mt, a modest increase from 2020. Demand growth was primarily supported by the concurrent expansion of coke production (coke production reached 502 million mt in 2025). Overall, China's domestic coking coal production growth was unable to fully match demand expansion, with imported resources effectively filling the supply-demand gap. (II) China's Coking Coal Supply-Demand Balance Data source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), publicly available data From 2020 to 2025, China's coking coal concentrate market completed a transition from tight supply to a tight balance with a slight surplus, with both supply and demand expanding simultaneously and market operational stability improving significantly. The supply side exhibited a sustained and steady growth trend, with the release of domestic capacity combined with supplementary import resources jointly driving continuous enhancement of supply capability. The demand side maintained mild expansion, primarily supported by rigid production demand from the coke and steel industries, with overall growth notably slower than the supply side. By phase, from 2020 to 2022, the market was in a state of persistent undersupply, with supply gaps appearing in all three years, and the industry was highly reliant on imported resources to fill the supply-demand gap. In 2023, the market reached a structural turning point, achieving a supply surplus for the first time; in 2024, the surplus scale expanded significantly; in 2025, the surplus pulled back, but the market had thoroughly shed its prolonged deficit status. With China's coking coal concentrate supply assurance capability continuing to improve, combined with flexible adjustment of import channels, the market entered a healthy tight balance range where supply was slightly greater than demand. Chapter 4: Global Coking Coal Supply-Demand Balance Data source: IEA, publicly available data From 2020 to 2025, the global coking coal market gradually shifted from maintaining a slight surplus to a slight supply-demand deficit. The long-term tightening of global premium coking coal resources, compounded by multiple external factors such as the restructuring of the global energy landscape triggered by the energy crisis and shifts in national energy policies, ultimately drove the global coking coal market from a relatively loose state in the earlier period to a slight deficit. Chapter 5: Summary Affected by geopolitical conflicts and energy transition, the strategic value of coking coal continued to rise, with energy security premiums becoming prominent, and the overall industry landscape gradually evolving toward a tight supply-demand balance. Global coking coal production is limited, with low-ash, low-sulfur premium resources being particularly scarce. Reserves, capacity, and export trade are all highly concentrated, with a few countries such as Russia, China, the U.S., and Australia controlling the supply side, forming a monopolistic landscape through advantages in resources, logistics, and coal grade complementarity, while the energy crisis brings new opportunities and challenges. Overall, coking coal markets both in and outside China have shifted toward a tight balance, with structural shortages of premium coal grades being a prominent issue. The coking coal market may hold up well throughout 2026.

Vietnam News Agency reported on May 25 that the World Steel Association (Worldsteel) recently released the list of the world's top 10 crude steel producing countries, with Vietnam making the list for the first time. Specifically, the World Steel Association estimated that Vietnam's crude steel (steel billet) production reached 2.1 million mt in April 2026, up 4% YoY. With this production volume, Vietnam surpassed Italy and entered the global top 10 steel producing countries for the first time. In the first four months of this year, Vietnam's cumulative crude steel production reached 8.5 million mt, up 8.4% YoY. According to information released by the Vietnam Steel Association, Vietnam's steel industry has achieved leapfrog development in both production scale and product variety.