On March 25, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained stable.

[SMM Midday Tin Commentary: Improving Macro Sentiment Drove a Rebound in Tin Prices, While Follow-Through in Spot Transactions Remained Limited]

On Tuesday, Eastern Time, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned that the energy shock stemming from the Middle East conflict is threatening the US Fed’s dual mandate, complicating its monetary policy outlook and potentially delaying interest rate cuts—echoing earlier remarks by Fed Governor Barr that inflation risks and oil prices support keeping rates unchanged for longer. Specifically, the energy price shock poses risks to both sides of the US Fed’s dual mandate, making the trade-off between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth more complex. “The new shock has undoubtedly disrupted the US Fed’s plans... and inflation was already uncomfortably high even before the shock occurred,” Goolsbee said bluntly. Goolsbee noted that central bank policymakers around the world lack clear historical experience to draw on in dealing with the current mix of geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures, and therefore “this is a bad situation for central banks.” Goolsbee stressed that the current path of interest rates at central banks around the world still depends heavily on how the conflict evolves, especially its impact on energy markets. As for the US Fed, he said he is not yet able to judge whether it will be able to cut interest rates again, because that outlook depends on the duration of the conflict and the extent to which rising oil prices affect overall inflation. “Only if inflation shows improvement can one realistically expect rates to fall this year,” he added, further reinforcing the US Fed’s data-dependent stance. The US Fed’s Internal Stance Is Turning More Cautious These remarks by Goolsbee were highly consistent with earlier comments by Fed Governor Michael Barr. Barr had previously also emphasized that, given that US inflation remains above target and elevated oil prices are further pushing up inflation, interest rates may need to remain unchanged “for some time.” In addition, Barr likewise pointed out that although the US labour market appears to be stabilizing, US Fed officials need to see clear evidence of sustained disinflation before considering interest rate cuts. Taken together, these comments highlight the US Fed’s increasingly cautious shift in stance. As geopolitical developments exert a growing influence on the US inflation outlook, the combination of persistent price pressures and external shocks has reinforced expectations that high inflation will last longer, while also creating uncertainty over the feasibility of further policy easing in the near term. For markets, the key point is that after the Russia-Ukraine shock several years ago, energy-driven inflation risks have now been firmly incorporated into the US Fed’s reaction function. As a result, US Fed rate expectations may remain sensitive not only to economic data, but also to developments in the Middle East conflict and their impact on oil prices.

As supply and demand for construction steel were not fully matched across different markets, regional supply-demand mismatches created price differentiation, which in turn drove the cross-regional circulation of steel resources. When the regional price spread gradient was appropriate, regions with surplus construction steel capacity and production often shipped excess resources out, thereby rebalancing construction steel resources across regions.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] News-Driven Disturbances Pushed SS Futures Higher to Test the Upside, Confidence in the Stainless Steel Spot Market Gradually Recovered SMM News, March 24: SS futures rose strongly. Affected by market fluctuations triggered by news of geopolitical conflict yesterday, SS futures rose sharply in the night session, and the daytime session maintained a fluctuating but relatively strong trend, closing at 14,290 yuan/mt by midday. In the spot market, boosted by the sharp rise in SS futures, market confidence somewhat recovered; although the increase in traders' spot quotations was limited, both inquiries and transactions showed signs of recovery during the week. The current market is heavily disturbed by news factors, and changes in the geopolitical conflict still need close attention. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and moved higher. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,305 yuan/mt, up 125 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 115-315 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt, while the average price in Foshan was unchanged; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotations were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were also unchanged. As the market entered the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April," although the stainless steel market ushered in a seasonal recovery window, end-use demand fell short of expectations, downstream wait-and-see sentiment gradually intensified, and the procurement side only maintained a restocking pace for rigid demand, with none of the transaction momentum typically seen in the peak season emerging. The market's view on stainless steel prices...

[SMM Daily Review: High-Grade NPI May Still Have Downside Room Under the Dual Pressure of End-Users and Steel Scrap] March 24 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.88, up 0.01 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.59, down 0.04 MoM.